something doesnt sit right with the SA total so I'm buying back the 1.5% on under 180. Maybe lightning will strike twice and I'll hit one side of a middle again.
I am taking SA 1st q -1.5 -115 for 1.5%
it's not b/c of the number but just based on what I think will happen, and I did check boxscores for at least a little backup. It's not the anti-public view I'd like to be utilizing as we go deep into the playoffs, but there's still plenty of basketball.
min/sac G6 total seems too high, but so am I and apathy
I am taking SA 1st q -1.5 -115 for 1.5%
it's not b/c of the number but just based on what I think will happen, and I did check boxscores for at least a little backup. It's not the anti-public view I'd like to be utilizing as we go deep into the playoffs, but there's still plenty of basketball.
min/sac G6 total seems too high, but so am I and apathy
I need to look closer at the game, but I see no reason Indians wins by 12. Is Miami better or worse right now than in game 2? I think Miami puts up a fight and I would not bet Indiana -8.5, Minnesota +5 or better real big and ml. I'm not crazy about the NJ number but closeouts are common in 6's. I'm looking for possibly getting NJ -2.5 and buying to 2, or going moneyline. not as much, could be close, but this has not been my best series. SA/LA, I like getting 5 with SA, they are about as live a dog as you can get, the question is are they through? can they make shots? they can win on the road, but havent faced elimination recently. history shows series end in game 6's more often than not, but is this the one that goes to a game 7 as NJ and MIN should close out?
[This message was edited by ATX on May 15, 2004 at 05:06 AM.]
[This message was edited by ATX on May 15, 2004 at 05:06 AM.]
MIN/LA G1:
First the line is off. Should be Min -2 closer to -3.5, total seems a little low.
I'm pretty sure that the line moves closer to that by game time, and I'm also pretty sure the public will be taking LA. yes lines do move opposite of public money, it depends on who is betting what and other situational factors that vary.
If the public does take LA, and the line moves to MIN there is a strong historic angle for taking MIN. But there are other angles...
In the playoffs I dont pay much attention to public money, in the regular season I do. Playoffs are a different animal, often it takes 4 or more games for lines to be adjusted correctly etc, and by then they are often over adjusted...the public is often right in early rounds on 'obvious' gifts. Wager amounts for me are determined by how many factors point in one direction and how far off the predicted number the line is set as well as the frequency % a number lands on one side of what is offered. And instinct. There are angles against taking MIN in this game, but they are a little more convoluted, I cant explain what the exact angles are as that would only serve to undermine profitability.
Why should Min be -2 or more? One of the best reasons is Wolf home record and margin vs. Laker road susceptibility. Add in season meetings. I also feel that the time off does not help LA. I dont think Min will feel too satisfied after the SAC series win, LA beat the Wolves last year in the playoffs, no look ahead or satisfaction yet. LA is playing well but...actually it was more SA playing bad not LA playing well IMO. SA could not hit a shot to save their life and at the end even Duncan shot a 3 b/c it was pointless to give the guards more shots they were shooting so badly. If SA would have hit a couple of 3's and/or had Fisher or Payton missed one of those clutch shots, the second half could have been very similar to the first in that game 6. I'm not trying to take anything away from that LA victory, but only trying to explain why the line is at pick. When lines are off it's usually to induce the public, through time-tested psychology, to take the wrong side. IMO this line plays on the fact that LA won so much more convincingly in their last games than Minnesota. A quick glance back to the series in Houston, and LA on the road is not so threatening, HOU had not made the playoffs in years. Minn is hardly a veteran playoff squad either, and last year got killed in game one at home by LA but this is a much better Wolf team.
Another qualitative aspect is the incredible amount of money that has been placed on LA futures. I'm sure that a lot of people that passed on taking LA to win it all early in the year remember that now and see some sort of value with this line. Books will win big when LA does not win the title.
The only exact angle that I'll mention is home teams at pick. Home teams at/around pick win more than they lose against the number. It's not rocket science, teams generally win more at home than teams win on the road, and often the home team is not favored when they should be b/c the public takes the road team regardless.
I dont bet too many angles blindly, I use them more to evaluate why a line is what it is and as indicators in determining value/wager size. I feel matchups favor Minnesota. Nba conspiracy or 'fixed' theory would seem to favor a 'script' of Minnesota winning game one IMO (not a real valid argument and has little to do with the wager) as a series is easiest to 'make' into 7 games with home teams winning at home.
There is an angle for LA winning game one. It doesnt fit too well here. First b/c it hasnt worked well this year, fwiw I didnt use it b/c the matchups this playoff year overrode the angle. Second b/c LA is not a dog.
Not a real big wager of MIN at pick or better for 1.0%
Total is a little tougher to call, I tend to favor the over as I feel game one may be of less defensive intensity as the teams 'feel each other out.' After playing each other so many times in a row SA/LA and MIN/SAC made adjustments more to the defensive side of play which resulted in scores far below the posted number. Now we have a number that may be too low as it may have been adjusted too far from those games. pass for now, may wait until the half for a total, as I may for the side and total on NJ/DET (which I lean on the under for game 7).
First the line is off. Should be Min -2 closer to -3.5, total seems a little low.
I'm pretty sure that the line moves closer to that by game time, and I'm also pretty sure the public will be taking LA. yes lines do move opposite of public money, it depends on who is betting what and other situational factors that vary.
If the public does take LA, and the line moves to MIN there is a strong historic angle for taking MIN. But there are other angles...
In the playoffs I dont pay much attention to public money, in the regular season I do. Playoffs are a different animal, often it takes 4 or more games for lines to be adjusted correctly etc, and by then they are often over adjusted...the public is often right in early rounds on 'obvious' gifts. Wager amounts for me are determined by how many factors point in one direction and how far off the predicted number the line is set as well as the frequency % a number lands on one side of what is offered. And instinct. There are angles against taking MIN in this game, but they are a little more convoluted, I cant explain what the exact angles are as that would only serve to undermine profitability.
Why should Min be -2 or more? One of the best reasons is Wolf home record and margin vs. Laker road susceptibility. Add in season meetings. I also feel that the time off does not help LA. I dont think Min will feel too satisfied after the SAC series win, LA beat the Wolves last year in the playoffs, no look ahead or satisfaction yet. LA is playing well but...actually it was more SA playing bad not LA playing well IMO. SA could not hit a shot to save their life and at the end even Duncan shot a 3 b/c it was pointless to give the guards more shots they were shooting so badly. If SA would have hit a couple of 3's and/or had Fisher or Payton missed one of those clutch shots, the second half could have been very similar to the first in that game 6. I'm not trying to take anything away from that LA victory, but only trying to explain why the line is at pick. When lines are off it's usually to induce the public, through time-tested psychology, to take the wrong side. IMO this line plays on the fact that LA won so much more convincingly in their last games than Minnesota. A quick glance back to the series in Houston, and LA on the road is not so threatening, HOU had not made the playoffs in years. Minn is hardly a veteran playoff squad either, and last year got killed in game one at home by LA but this is a much better Wolf team.
Another qualitative aspect is the incredible amount of money that has been placed on LA futures. I'm sure that a lot of people that passed on taking LA to win it all early in the year remember that now and see some sort of value with this line. Books will win big when LA does not win the title.
The only exact angle that I'll mention is home teams at pick. Home teams at/around pick win more than they lose against the number. It's not rocket science, teams generally win more at home than teams win on the road, and often the home team is not favored when they should be b/c the public takes the road team regardless.
I dont bet too many angles blindly, I use them more to evaluate why a line is what it is and as indicators in determining value/wager size. I feel matchups favor Minnesota. Nba conspiracy or 'fixed' theory would seem to favor a 'script' of Minnesota winning game one IMO (not a real valid argument and has little to do with the wager) as a series is easiest to 'make' into 7 games with home teams winning at home.
There is an angle for LA winning game one. It doesnt fit too well here. First b/c it hasnt worked well this year, fwiw I didnt use it b/c the matchups this playoff year overrode the angle. Second b/c LA is not a dog.
Not a real big wager of MIN at pick or better for 1.0%
Total is a little tougher to call, I tend to favor the over as I feel game one may be of less defensive intensity as the teams 'feel each other out.' After playing each other so many times in a row SA/LA and MIN/SAC made adjustments more to the defensive side of play which resulted in scores far below the posted number. Now we have a number that may be too low as it may have been adjusted too far from those games. pass for now, may wait until the half for a total, as I may for the side and total on NJ/DET (which I lean on the under for game 7).
