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NBA Playoffs 2004
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
Minnesota -5 over Sacramento G1 for 1.8%
slight possibility it moves below 5, but I doubt it. the line is so far off as it is that it's scary. I have this very close to what I had as MOV for game one of SA/LA. Min wins this game by 7 or more over 57% of the time. I put just a tad less on this one b/c Minnesota doesnt have the playoff experience that SA does...or that SAC does. That's pretty much the only thing that worries me. This will lose b/c it's so easy. But I'd say over 60% of the time it doesnt.
slight possibility it moves below 5, but I doubt it. the line is so far off as it is that it's scary. I have this very close to what I had as MOV for game one of SA/LA. Min wins this game by 7 or more over 57% of the time. I put just a tad less on this one b/c Minnesota doesnt have the playoff experience that SA does...or that SAC does. That's pretty much the only thing that worries me. This will lose b/c it's so easy. But I'd say over 60% of the time it doesnt.
New Jersey/Detroit under 172 G1 for .6%
based on a hunch more than anything, as a lot of game ones can be unpredictable. In the last round a lot of the first quarters in game ones were going over, so that takes a little away, but I think these two are going to play a defensive brand of basketball. Detroit looks to be undevalued a little at -5, but NJ has the finals experience. Det -5 looks easy but there has not been a straight up dog in a while, and on the flip side one can get the 2X defending Eastern Conference champs at plus money. I think there's more value on the NJ ML than anything else but may pass or wait until the half which I should have done with Miami.
based on a hunch more than anything, as a lot of game ones can be unpredictable. In the last round a lot of the first quarters in game ones were going over, so that takes a little away, but I think these two are going to play a defensive brand of basketball. Detroit looks to be undevalued a little at -5, but NJ has the finals experience. Det -5 looks easy but there has not been a straight up dog in a while, and on the flip side one can get the 2X defending Eastern Conference champs at plus money. I think there's more value on the NJ ML than anything else but may pass or wait until the half which I should have done with Miami.
lean to Miami/NO over, maybe 1.0% but may wait until the half which is what I should have done on their last game
lean to DET -5 or better
lean to SA -4 or better
I'm being too cautious as so many favorites are covering, but I think the matchups so far have just been indicative of that, the favorite has been better than the number. I am still anxious about bounce-back tendencies in game 2's, but it's hard to make an argument on LA and NJ performing with enough improvement to find value on the small number of points they are being given. I took Minnesota earlier based on their avg margin of victory at home, Sacramento's lack of true road presence, and Minnesota being the better defensive club, and a lot of times the better defensive club at home dictates the game. If Sac hits enough shots they can beat anyone, but defense usually starts to play more and more of a role in the 2nd round on. I think the number on the NO/MIA game should be more like 172 as a total, and with either team likely to foul at the end of a game 7 that adds a little value to it. it makes no sense to me that a total goes over, and moves down for the next game, esp with the bad FT shooting in game 6. I like Baltimore in MLB, I havent been looking at baseball lately, as the weather is perfect and wont last, but I have them better than -120 and the +220 is a magnification error.
lean to DET -5 or better
lean to SA -4 or better
I'm being too cautious as so many favorites are covering, but I think the matchups so far have just been indicative of that, the favorite has been better than the number. I am still anxious about bounce-back tendencies in game 2's, but it's hard to make an argument on LA and NJ performing with enough improvement to find value on the small number of points they are being given. I took Minnesota earlier based on their avg margin of victory at home, Sacramento's lack of true road presence, and Minnesota being the better defensive club, and a lot of times the better defensive club at home dictates the game. If Sac hits enough shots they can beat anyone, but defense usually starts to play more and more of a role in the 2nd round on. I think the number on the NO/MIA game should be more like 172 as a total, and with either team likely to foul at the end of a game 7 that adds a little value to it. it makes no sense to me that a total goes over, and moves down for the next game, esp with the bad FT shooting in game 6. I like Baltimore in MLB, I havent been looking at baseball lately, as the weather is perfect and wont last, but I have them better than -120 and the +220 is a magnification error.
I'm thinkin Miami
I like them 1st q more than anything. Pacers have had a ton of time off, everybody knows that, not sure how 'tired' Miami is, but I know that I would much rather compete exhausted at 80% capacity than at 110% with rust. The total is too low. But that doesnt mean it wont go under, it's really hard to tell if Indi plays with rust and misses shots or has fresh legs and drains jumpers. The total is so low and the spread so high that there is some value to a parlay of Miami to over IMO, but there are those who would say 'and Indi to the over?' I am really sick of taking favorites, as I eye the next Det/NJ game. Not much chance I take NJ. In the past I have done better on game 3's and on, the lack of long series has been disappointing, but the constant drug and alcohol abuse has helped increase profitablity on games 1 and 2 for this playoff year. I think I'm switching back to tequila and whiskey from beer again. Wagers tend to end up larger with the first two.
I like them 1st q more than anything. Pacers have had a ton of time off, everybody knows that, not sure how 'tired' Miami is, but I know that I would much rather compete exhausted at 80% capacity than at 110% with rust. The total is too low. But that doesnt mean it wont go under, it's really hard to tell if Indi plays with rust and misses shots or has fresh legs and drains jumpers. The total is so low and the spread so high that there is some value to a parlay of Miami to over IMO, but there are those who would say 'and Indi to the over?' I am really sick of taking favorites, as I eye the next Det/NJ game. Not much chance I take NJ. In the past I have done better on game 3's and on, the lack of long series has been disappointing, but the constant drug and alcohol abuse has helped increase profitablity on games 1 and 2 for this playoff year. I think I'm switching back to tequila and whiskey from beer again. Wagers tend to end up larger with the first two.
I am buying back on Sac -5.5 for 1.0%
something doesnt sit well, I need to think about it some more. I still think min should be favored by 1 pt in Sac as a median score, if they played 100 times min would win by 1 more frequently than any other. Of course Sac is more likely to play above expectation in G4 as Min did tonite, and may get those series extending calls, but how many points is that worth? 3, 4, 5? min wins by 5 at home and one at sac, game 1 was outside of normal parameters IMO, and it certainly screws up the avg, but thats 2 out of 3 on the median I see. But I also have to consider that I have a natural bias towards min since I took them for the series after they lost game 1. Now how many points is that bias worth? I guess we'll see as the series pans out. One of the problems I have is that I cant picture how the 4th game will begin. I'm not sure why it wouldnt tend to be close as a LOT of people involved would NOT mind a repeat of the very high-publicity thriller from game 3. Now that also would seem to favor the over. The 193 looks so absurd that I dont know where to begin. It looks so bad that there's got to be some super-nova angle that favors an under 191 here. Because they are going to get 70% one-sided action up to and possibly beyond 195 here. I thought game 3 should have opened 195, but decided to wait until the half, and didnt like having to lay 97 then 98. I think the median score is a minimum 195. I'm not real complex with totals, but when these two meet the final score in Arco would seem to hit 200 more frequently than 190. And after an OT game in which they scored over 220? I just dont see the final score here being sac 100 min 93 more often than not. I need to look at this some more, maybe worth a middle.
something doesnt sit well, I need to think about it some more. I still think min should be favored by 1 pt in Sac as a median score, if they played 100 times min would win by 1 more frequently than any other. Of course Sac is more likely to play above expectation in G4 as Min did tonite, and may get those series extending calls, but how many points is that worth? 3, 4, 5? min wins by 5 at home and one at sac, game 1 was outside of normal parameters IMO, and it certainly screws up the avg, but thats 2 out of 3 on the median I see. But I also have to consider that I have a natural bias towards min since I took them for the series after they lost game 1. Now how many points is that bias worth? I guess we'll see as the series pans out. One of the problems I have is that I cant picture how the 4th game will begin. I'm not sure why it wouldnt tend to be close as a LOT of people involved would NOT mind a repeat of the very high-publicity thriller from game 3. Now that also would seem to favor the over. The 193 looks so absurd that I dont know where to begin. It looks so bad that there's got to be some super-nova angle that favors an under 191 here. Because they are going to get 70% one-sided action up to and possibly beyond 195 here. I thought game 3 should have opened 195, but decided to wait until the half, and didnt like having to lay 97 then 98. I think the median score is a minimum 195. I'm not real complex with totals, but when these two meet the final score in Arco would seem to hit 200 more frequently than 190. And after an OT game in which they scored over 220? I just dont see the final score here being sac 100 min 93 more often than not. I need to look at this some more, maybe worth a middle.
SA G5 over 180 or better for 1.5%
I have a median more like 182, which was why I passed on the SA/LA G4 2h over 91, which I think went to 92. I missed an angle which was LA 3rd q, but I was fairly surprised at SA leading by 10, it threw me off the path. I feel that 184, 185 has a higher frequency than 180 in game 5. But that is taking into account what I feel will be a close game, so the 4th q/final minute points add a little to what I perceive as value. What I consider to be the most important angle is the last 10 or so meetings between the two. The median and frequency is above 180. Current form for the two and matchup tendencies displayed in previous meetings make the most probable total score better than 180. Game 1's happen, but I'd say it lands exactly 184, 185 at least 15% of the time in game 5. It's a little too early to start calling totals, but as we get farther into the playoffs the numbers get better, at least they have for me in years past.
NJ/DET: I havent done well with this series at all. I may feel best suited to wait until the half for their game 5.
I have a median more like 182, which was why I passed on the SA/LA G4 2h over 91, which I think went to 92. I missed an angle which was LA 3rd q, but I was fairly surprised at SA leading by 10, it threw me off the path. I feel that 184, 185 has a higher frequency than 180 in game 5. But that is taking into account what I feel will be a close game, so the 4th q/final minute points add a little to what I perceive as value. What I consider to be the most important angle is the last 10 or so meetings between the two. The median and frequency is above 180. Current form for the two and matchup tendencies displayed in previous meetings make the most probable total score better than 180. Game 1's happen, but I'd say it lands exactly 184, 185 at least 15% of the time in game 5. It's a little too early to start calling totals, but as we get farther into the playoffs the numbers get better, at least they have for me in years past.
NJ/DET: I havent done well with this series at all. I may feel best suited to wait until the half for their game 5.
