NBA Playoff Trends / Betting Info ...

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When you're broke, you Break
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In 38 minutes without Kevin Love on the floor in the NBA Finals, the Cavaliers have been outscored by 32 points.
 

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Warriors: +48 this series, largest pt differential in 1st 2 games of an NBA Finals

Largest differential in 1st 3 games: +49 (1951 Royals)
 

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Cavaliers 4-1 SU/ATS, 3-2 O/U with Kevin Love out of lineup this season.

16-10 SU, 13-13 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U since he joined Cavs.
 

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Fade the Trendy Underdog <s>


</s>
NBA Playoff favorites receiving less than 40% of spread bets have gone 86-56 ATS (60.6%)
 

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Favorites coming off a double-digit ATS loss have gone 111-73 ATS (60.3%) during the Playoffs.
 

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Over the past two seasons, Warriors unders have gone 59-66 when the closing total is 210+ & 45-31 when the closing total is less than 210.
 

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Teams down 0-2 listed as faves for Game 3 of Finals are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS since 1994-95.

Cavs currently -1
 

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Cavaliers have been held to under 100 points in 9 straight games against the Warriors.
 

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Pinnacle ...


Spread
Warriors (+1.5) 40%
Cavaliers (-1.5) 60%

ML
Warriors 53%
Cavaliers​ 47%

Total 204.5
Over 72%
Under 28%
 

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With Jefferson starting in place of Love, Cavaliers will have small lineup on court to start.

They are -49 this series when going small.
 

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Sports Insights ... UPDATED


57% of Spread bets on GS +2
57% of ML bets on GS +110
59% of O/U bets on Over 205.5
 

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Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sportsbook ...

“We opened the Cavs -1, then went all the way to Warriors -1,” noting Golden State money forced the 2-point swing. “Now, we’re back at pick.”

Andrews said other shops have returned to Cavs -1 or even -1.5, but he’s not ready for that move.

“We haven’t gotten bet yet at pick ‘em. I’m not gonna move until somebody bets me,”

Where the South Point is seeing strong Cleveland money is on the first half.

“I got bet pretty good on the Cavs. I’ve got them -1.5, so that’s kind of strange,” he said, adding it appears bettors expect at least a strong start from the desperate Cavs. “That’s it exactly. If they’re gonna win anything, it’s probably gonna be the first half.”




Meanwhile, the Golden Nugget opened at pick on Monday, moved to Golden State -1 on Tuesday and went back to pick earlier today.

“We’ve got good two-way action right now, with ticket count slightly higher on the Warriors,” Tony Miller, who heads up the Golden Nugget book said. “I expect money will come later on Cleveland. As the public knows, this is a do-or-die game for the Cavs.”



Greg Sindall, senior oddsmaker for online site SportsInteraction ...

SportsInteraction has seen an abundance of back-and-forth movement.

“This line has been bouncing around quite a bit,” said Sindall, whose shop opened the Cavs at -1.5. “We took some early Golden State money and brought that down to -1, and then moved again to a pick. We kept taking action on Golden State, so we moved the line to Warriors -1.

“We quickly took action on the Cavs at +1 and brought it back to a pick and continued to see Cleveland money, so we moved it out again to Cleveland -1, where we now stand. With the way this line has been bouncing around, I would not be surprised to see it move again. I can see this closing as a pick.”

After both Games 1 and 2 went low, bettors are apparently on board with the under for Game 3, as well. At the South Point and the Golden Nugget, the total opened at 206.5 but is now at 205. SportsInteraction opened at 207 and also had to drop down.

“We quickly dropped it to 206.5,” Sindall said. “Then we took some sharp money on the under and dropped the line to 205 where we currently stand. Since that move, though, we’ve been seeing some public money come in on over 205.”
 

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