Had a sweet position on dog last night, +11 1/2 70/1000. Only to watch Heat choke up a giant hairball missing 4 straight in last possession. Should have split value, but went all out on dog. Still, I think dogs are going to bark very soon. Heat, Spurs, TWolfs, Pistons will all be good dogs. Heat might be dogs every game. The time is near. Must admit, unprecedented chalk run here. Waiting for weekend, as neither dog interests me tonight. Best Wishes...OF
I LOVE the TWolfs Saturday. One of the strongest long term trends/systems in NBA playoffs is taking series home team, after losing one of first two at home, to win one of next two on road. They will be getting points. Probably 5 or more. TWolfs play very well in Sac. Probably Kings worst opponent at home. Kings squeaked by Mavs last two home games. Bit better defense here. Going to be a great series. Best Wishes...OF
Oops, forgot they are stretching the series way out. At least you have the dog, that should have clued me in under this thread. I am passing on Kings as Garnett will not have a day of distractions like MVP ceremony game #1. Kings trapping caught Wolfs by surprise, will be an adjustment there. Probably will focus more on getting ball out of Bibby's hands. Also, do not see TWolfs settling for so many J's twice in a row. They can get many more free throws this game, and the Kings post defense can be nonexistant. Very bad spot for Kings, got what they wanted already, win on road for split. Also bounce factor, fired up Garnett, and it may look completely different from first game. Sorry, about the game #3 thoughts. After Saturday, it starts going every other day. It throws me off having long gaps between games. But my mind is on boxing, and I know that is Saturday...Best Wishes...OF
OF...any insightful explanation for all this chalk covering. It certainly can't be that the oddsmakers don't want to make a high line. What is it? Just coincedence? A few dominant teams? Maybe the most startling thing is the lack of close games. I gotta check, but it seems like the majority of games have been DD games. That is not the norm for typical NBA. Reg season NBA most games are SD's and reg season there should be more mismatches. This is really really strange.
Just checked, 28 of the 45 games have been won by DD's. That is beyond unblievable. Maybe someone has the numbers offhand, but I'm positive that during thr reg season DD wins are far less than 50%. I would think maybe 35-40% or so, maybe less. nd in theory playoffs should have fewer DD teams since all the teams earned the right to the postseason. It's really inexplicable.
Done very well previously taking points and covering, if not winning outright. Used to be most games were decided last few possessions. If I were to offer my explanation, since you asked D2, I think it goes back to bottom line fundamentals. Matchups. So many mismatches early that Faves were just the only side. Nets and Pacers 8-0 ATS first round. This second round is a much different animal, and again, Spurs overwhelmed Lakers, as a short fave, and Motown overwhelmed Nets, as a smallish dog. The dogs are so small because of recent history, playoff history, takes the balance number way out from actual number. Thus the easy covers. I like a lot of dogs from here on out, just bought cheap +11 and 11 1/2 on Heat. Was waiting for 12, started sliding. I think this number is 3 to 4 points high. Spurs getting points from Lakers? Motown getting points from Nets? Finally the better teams will be getting, vs. laying. I think it is hot teams, Spurs now 6-1 ATS, Motown 6-1 ATS. I know Pacers are 5-0, but last night closer to a 9 point game that blew. I will cash on some dogs soon. Best Wishes...OF
Certainly there were and are mismatches, but I don't think these really surprised anybody and I think they were built into the line...and then some. There are mismatches all over the place during the regular season but they don't always result in covers by the "better team". So there has to be either a deeper explanation than mismatches or the explanation is just that it's an anomoly. Or maybe something with the reffing. I have seen some major HC biases from refs. Or maybe it's just my bias, I dunno. I'm still perplexed.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
Just checked, 28 of the 45 games have been won by DD's. That is beyond unblievable. Maybe someone has the numbers offhand, but I'm positive that during thr reg season DD wins are far less than 50%. I would think maybe 35-40% or so, maybe less. nd in theory playoffs should have fewer DD teams since all the teams earned the right to the postseason. It's really inexplicable.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
For the regular season, I show 542 of 1189 (45.6%) games being decided by double digits.
Just checked, 28 of the 45 games have been won by DD's. That is beyond unblievable. Maybe someone has the numbers offhand, but I'm positive that during thr reg season DD wins are far less than 50%. I would think maybe 35-40% or so, maybe less. nd in theory playoffs should have fewer DD teams since all the teams earned the right to the postseason. It's really inexplicable.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
For the regular season, I show 542 of 1189 (45.6%) games being decided by double digits.
OK. First rounds were blatant mismatches, with little chance of number being near the result. Most of the swing games, decided by a basket dropped fave, at the same time of blowouts. Pacers last night good example of swing game dropping chalk. Now again, faves are better than number, at least in second round Spurs/Pistons, 4-0 faves, with nothing close to number. Both teams have shutdown defenses, while they keep scoring. And both teams can and will run. These games are such mismatches, zebras can't even keep them close. All decided by DD. I noticed that right away. Now all my calls are by 10+. That is remaining consistent. This weekend, should see quite a bit of square chalk action. There will be some nailbiters soon. When better teams are on road. Just be ready, OF
Detroit Pistons forward Rasheed Wallace argues his technical foul with official Joe DeRosa during the second quarter of game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals against the New Jersey Nets at the Palace in Auburn Hills, Mich., Friday, May 7, 2004. The Pistons defeated New Jersey, 95-80, Friday night to take a 2-0 lead in their series.
Detroit Pistons' Chauncey Billups (1) celebrates with Ben Wallace (3) in the fourth quarter of their 95-80 win over the New Jersey Nets in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals Friday, May 7, 2004, in Auburn Hills, Mich. Billups scored 28 points and dished out 13 assists.
wil.
