My Oklahoma vs. Florida analysis...(way too long)

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

Good points, Box, and I appreciate the rationality. You do a far better job of avoiding homerism. I know Demps and Rainey are extremely fast; I've seen the footage, watched the high school track tapes, and seen the 40 times. I just wanted to point out that they got caught; they aren't unstoppable. Make note of the field conditions, but as I said, FSU was running on the same field. Probably irrelevalant to this game as I don't think OU's defense is as fast as FSU's, but a point that I think needed to be made, as it perhaps plays a role in public perception and the idea/probable myth that "UF is the fastest team to ever take the field".

As for AJ Jones...he's good, without a doubt. But is he NFL linebacker good? Right now? Because Gresham, sans some catching troubles now and again (that he seems to have eliminated in OU's most recent big games), is an NFL-caliber tight end, right now. Personally, I don't see any linebacker in college right now that can cover him 1 vs. 1 all day. Spikes may have the best chance, but I'm not convinced he can run with him 30 yards and still make a play on the ball.

Anyway, the reality of this game is going to be which QB plays the better game. In my mind, your bet should be placed solely on who you think will have the better game. Bradford has a bad tendency of not sensing pocket pressure, and he could end up getting very flustered if UF finds a way to get pressure on him, but in the matchup of OU's o-line vs. UF's d-line, I think OU has a clear advantage and should be able to protect Bradford, thus giving him the time to pick apart yet another defense.

 

[Randizzle14]

1. Chris Rainey and John Demps speed is not hype, they are both extremely fast, regardless of what happened in the FSU game. You have to admit, the field conditions weren't exactly ideal for a footrace. The other thing people always fail to understand also, is that a RB starts 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage and by the time they get to the secondary, they have run 15-20 yards, THEN the secondary starts running and many times in both NFL and college the faster players will get run down from behind because they are winded/tired from running the additional yards. Either way, these guys have broken into the secondary all year and no one has caught them, and the one game where there is 2 inches of rain on the field Rainey gets run down. Not to mention, the guy has a groin injury, and has barely played lately and was playing injured in the FSU game. Rainey, who is the leading rusher, got 1 carry for 1 yard in the SEC Title game and never returned.

2. AJ Jones can cover Gresham, OLB with speed and tremendous cover skills. He has been outstanding in the passing game this year.

Not going to get into everything else, just wanted to point out those 2 things.

Not one to argue typically, but there is not an LB in the country that can cover Gresham. I know this will sound biased, (maybe is somewhat)... But I know Gresham personally. The funny thing is that they list him at 6"5-6"6. He is easily 6"7-6"8. I GUARANTEE you of that. He can jump out of the gym (should see him hoop), AND his speed is matched by noone that is his size. Regardless of who you put on him he WILL get open and he WILL make plays. Simple as that. His hands are suspect, but its usually the wide open passes that he drops. Just saw that statement, and I had to respectfully disagree.

 

[gmoney72]

Rainey got run down because of his groing injury. He will have surgery on it when the season ends. Without the groin injury he never gets run down.

 

[gmoney72]

GAINESVILLE, Fla.: Florida's leading rusher Chris Rainey will play in the SEC Championship game against top-ranked Alabama on Saturday despite being hampered by a groin injury for more than a month.
Florida coach Urban Meyer first disclosed the injury Thursday night when he was asked about Rainey limping off the practice field.
"It won't affect him during the game," said Meyer, who claimed he did not know the specifics of the injury or when it occurred. "He's had it for, like, five weeks now."
The speedy running back may need offseason surgery to correct the problem, Meyer said.

 

[gmoney72]

Defense: Nothing significant (although OU has seen more potent offenses, and thus could have some advantage)

Are you serious? You think there is no significant advantage to who is better on defense? I guess a top 10 defense has no advantage over a 65th ranked defense. WOW

 

[jblonghorn]

Not one to argue typically, but there is not an LB in the country that can cover Gresham. I know this will sound biased, (maybe is somewhat)... But I know Gresham personally. The funny thing is that they list him at 6"5-6"6. He is easily 6"7-6"8. I GUARANTEE you of that. He can jump out of the gym (should see him hoop), AND his speed is matched by noone that is his size. Regardless of who you put on him he WILL get open and he WILL make plays. Simple as that. His hands are suspect, but its usually the wide open passes that he drops. Just saw that statement, and I had to respectfully disagree.

Sergio Kindle from Texas held him in check Dizzle. I haven't brought up Gresham's stats from the Cotton Bowl, but I didn't see him gashing us for too many yards in that game....again, hate to bring that game up every time, but it's the only game in which OU played a team that has ANYWHERE close to the amount of talent that Florida will bring to the table. Dizz, who you leaning to today?

 

[ATP]

gators have a good defense, ask south carolina.

 

[MajorGCG]

TCU would beat LSU, and could easily play with both UGA and Bama. C'mon man, you're way too biased towards Florida with everything you write about this game. I'm not saying Florida won't win, but you make it seem WAY too easy. Oklahoma has the better offense IMO and Florida doesn't really have a good defense. They might have a slightly better defense, but it's still not good and you could definitely argue TCU has a stronger defense. I personally think Oklahoma wins this game, but good luck.

I'm talking about rushing. All of those are strong rushing teams. To say UF doesn't have a good defense is nothing short of retarded.

 

[TNBanker]

Everyone know the SEC was down this year, way down. Look at the avg points scored by sec teams florida played.
Bama 12-1 21ppg
O Miss 8-4 17ppg
Ark 5-7 14ppg
ga 9-3 18ppg
vandy 6-6 12ppg
scar 7-5 14ppg
tn 5-7 11ppg
ky 6-6 12ppg
These ppg's are based on all 12 games, to say the sec offenses this year were anemic is a gross understatement.

Florida has beaten 2 teams in the top 25 ap& coaches poll #4 & #17 and got beat at home by #24.
Oklahoma has beaten #8,#11,#12,#13,#23, and got beat on a questionably neutral field by #3.

It extremely difficult to compare defenses when Fl plays in the worst offensive conference and OU plays in the best. The majority of the SEC teams this year could not score on anyone, including nonconference games. Check out these scoring powerhouses Miss St, Vandy, Scar, KY, Auburn, Ark, these teams would not score 10 on Boise. Only two teams average more the 20 ppg, and bama barely hits that mark. Tn averaged 11 ppg(and that was a generaous round up) scoring 7 on wyoming (rufkm). If the SEC was as strong as years past, then Florida's defensive stats would mean a great deal more. I seem to remember a championship game that was played not long a go, when Texas played the #1 ranked defense in the country allowing less then 10 points per game. Ohio st was also playing teams that couldn't score. How many did Texas put up?

Long story short "Play the game". Your are not going to be able to compare stats and win an argument, for or against OU.

 

[MajorGCG]

Miami scores 28ppg. UF held them to 3.
LSU scores 30ppg. UF held them to 21 and gift wrapped 7 of those points when Tim got hit dropping back to pass deep in his own territory.
UGA scores 32ppg. UF held their first team O to 3 pts.
FSU scores 33ppg and UF held them to 15pts.
Alabama scores 31ppg and UF held them to 20.

Now keep in mind that these avg scores for UF opponents were much higher before UF played them. Sorry, but that's good defense. Are the offenses in the big 12 great? Sure they are. Will OU score on UF. Of course and likely more than anyone has all year - they are THAT good. But this idea that UF can't play defense is sticking your head in the sand. UF's defense is faster, deeper, and more experienced as a unit than anyone OU has played. The converse is true for UF's D facing OU's O. On the other had, OU has had a ton of points run up on it and UF's O is better than anything OU has seen. If Okie St can run up 41 on OU, then you can bet UF can and will also. Only UF won't run out of gas like Okie St did.

 

[TNBanker]

I never said Florida did not have a good defense. I said it is hard to gage, and hard to compare to OU, when the SEC offenses are so weak this year. Surley we can agree the SEC has the weakest offenses in the country this year. Drastically down from past years.

 

[MajorGCG]

Quarterback play is weak in the conference, but there are plenty of teams that have good OLines, running games, etc. Also, several teams have been bludgeoned with injuries like UGA and early on Ole Miss. Then others mailed it in late in the year like LSU and UGA, while others continued to show improvement like Arkansas and Ole Miss. Overall it's been a weird year in the SEC and that is manifesting itself with the coaching turnover. I think we'll see a lot of assistants change in the offseason as well.

I agree it's difficult to compare, so as I offered previously, I think the closest Big12 comparisons for UF are UTx on D plus Colt McCoy ability to scramble and Okie State on offense from a style perspective. I think that gives as accurate a look as possible as to what UF is capable of on both sides of the ball vs OU.

 

[Boxslayer]

Good points, Box, and I appreciate the rationality. You do a far better job of avoiding homerism. I know Demps and Rainey are extremely fast; I've seen the footage, watched the high school track tapes, and seen the 40 times. I just wanted to point out that they got caught; they aren't unstoppable. Make note of the field conditions, but as I said, FSU was running on the same field. Probably irrelevalant to this game as I don't think OU's defense is as fast as FSU's, but a point that I think needed to be made, as it perhaps plays a role in public perception and the idea/probable myth that "UF is the fastest team to ever take the field".

As for AJ Jones...he's good, without a doubt. But is he NFL linebacker good? Right now? Because Gresham, sans some catching troubles now and again (that he seems to have eliminated in OU's most recent big games), is an NFL-caliber tight end, right now. Personally, I don't see any linebacker in college right now that can cover him 1 vs. 1 all day. Spikes may have the best chance, but I'm not convinced he can run with him 30 yards and still make a play on the ball.

Anyway, the reality of this game is going to be which QB plays the better game. In my mind, your bet should be placed solely on who you think will have the better game. Bradford has a bad tendency of not sensing pocket pressure, and he could end up getting very flustered if UF finds a way to get pressure on him, but in the matchup of OU's o-line vs. UF's d-line, I think OU has a clear advantage and should be able to protect Bradford, thus giving him the time to pick apart yet another defense.

I like talking about Rainey getting run down from behind, because I havent really spoke about it until now, and because I have read Gator boards and they are all in a panic about how that could happen, and they try to rationalize it by saying the FSU guy had an angle...which he didnt. He was run down, straight from behind, no doubt.

Staying on that subject, which has nothing to do with your thread and I apologize....

The players were absolutely running on the same field. No doubt about it. BUT...those were not field conditions for a footrace. For example, when the players got tackled, they slid about 5-6 yards on the ground afterwards. It reminded me a lot of an ice skating rink. Obviously the field was not an ice skating rink, but using that analogy as an exaggeration to show how a surface can effect speed, if Rainey and whoever the FSU player caught him had a foot race on an ice skating rink and that FSU player beat him.... well the FSU player must be faster....they were both running on ice. So, what's the big deal? Obviously, if you have ever tried to run on ice before, it takes a little bit of skill to figure it out.

When you run on a slippery surface and your pants are wet, your shoes are waterlogged, your socks are waterlogged, etc, I would give the edge to the player who has speed AND strength (especially in the legs) to where that extra 1-2 pounds of water weight absorbed in your clothes doesnt effect you, like a player in the secondary, over a guy like Rainey who relies just on speed, very light on his feet, doesnt have a lot of strength, weighs 170 pounds, and if his soaks are soaked, shoes are soaked, pants are soaked, etc it may slow him down 2 tenths of a second than normal, where the stronger player may only be slowed 1 tenth of second.

Again, all of these little intangibles aside, the most basic thing here to understad though is that Rainey played that game with a groin injury, and did not play much in the SEC Title game either because of it.

So, this is essentially what happened. Let's say Myron Rolle ran Rainey down, which he didnt, but Im just using his name as a placeholder: Myron vs. Rainey.

Rainey... you have a semi-serious groin injury prohibiting you from striding the length you usually do, you are going to race Myron Rolle. Myron is perfectly healthy. And we arent doing it on a football field. We are going to soak the field to near ice skating conditions. And Rainey you are going to start running from 20 yards away and then Myron will start running - so it's really a shorter race for Myron. And we're going to soak your uniforms, and shoes and submerge them in water and then you are going to put them on. I know you only weigh 170 pounds and Myron is a lot stronger, squats more, cleans more and benches more. So not only is he almost as fast as you, but he's healthier, he's running a shorter distance and he's stronger.

Coach Urban Meyer called it a slight groin injury that might require surgery after the season but said it will not hinder Rainey, the Gators' leading rusher with 654 yards who also has four touchdowns, on Saturday.
"What they do is just treat it. Our trainers do a heck of a job," Meyer said. "That won't affect him during the game.
"He's had it for (about) five weeks now."


Not sure if you have noticed, but Meyer is usually extremely optimistic about players health in the media, saying how well Harvin was doing on Monday/Tuesday and the guy didnt play. Above he talks about how fine Rainey will be and he got 1 carry in the SEC Title Game.

 

[Boxslayer]

Not one to argue typically, but there is not an LB in the country that can cover Gresham. I know this will sound biased, (maybe is somewhat)... But I know Gresham personally. The funny thing is that they list him at 6"5-6"6. He is easily 6"7-6"8. I GUARANTEE you of that. He can jump out of the gym (should see him hoop), AND his speed is matched by noone that is his size. Regardless of who you put on him he WILL get open and he WILL make plays. Simple as that. His hands are suspect, but its usually the wide open passes that he drops. Just saw that statement, and I had to respectfully disagree.

Well I've said in other threads that Gresham will be the best player on the field and will probably have the best NFL career out of anyone. I realize no one is going to be able to cover him all game, Gresham is going to get his catches. But AJ Jones has not only had some great coverage all year but has had made some great plays in the passing game. He should be able to contain and limit Gresham from going off, but nobody can stop him.

 

[EatTheChalk]

The best thing to happen to UF this past weekend was for Harvin to not play and for UF to come up with a victory in a close ball game. This forced the offense to utilize other weapons to a greater degree, and it allowed for UF to get positive experience in a tight ball game (this more than made up for their Ole Miss debacle). The offense will have even more confidence knowing that they put up 31 points against a stout defense without their best offensive player. People outside of the state do not truly understand how big of a deal it was for UF to do what they did on Saturday without Harvin. The thought of him returning with a healthy Rainey, and possibly even the availability of Ingram (looking to improve draft stock)...well, that's just scary.

Oklahoma is being over-inflated due to their recent blowout wins. This hurts them in a few ways: (1) breeds overconfidence, (2) untested and unproven in tight ball games against quality competition, and (3) prevents UF from getting a greater share of the hype going into the game.

One thing is for certain, we will soon enough find out whether or not the Oklahoma offense is over-hyped or the UF defense is over-hyped. Something has to give there.

-ETC

 

[Flsunman]

The love-fest for the SEC by these Gator boys is sad.

Year-in and year-out I praise the SEC and claim it to be the best conference in the country. My favorite games to watch each season are CBS afternoon games. The athletes are top-notch, and the overall level of play is extraordinary.

But the SEC is down this year, and it's because it's QB's have played horribly. It doesn't help that a few teams have tried to become what they don't have the personnel to be (Auburn and UT, trying to be spread offenses...like the Big 12). The talent is still very much there, no doubt about it; but the quality of play on the field has left a lot to be desired. Wake beat Ole Miss, GT beat UGA...aside from UF, the SEC has not been a *good* conference this year in terms of typical SEC quality-of-play, thus inflated UF wins/covers/public perception.

Jenkins is a good player, but he *is* still a freshman. He's going to make mistakes; it's what freshman DB do. Haden is damn good too, but he's only a sophomore. Wright is a hard hitter - no doubt about it - but his pass coverage still needs work. Who knows what he was doing on that deep sideline pass in the Ole Miss game. The UF secondary is very talented. But it is very young, and against a composed, veteran QB, behind an incredible, veteran O-line, I think they'll find themselves flustered. Who is going to guard Gresham? Spikes? Then it's Demarco Murray/Chris Brown time...

This OU offense - when working on all cylinders and playing their game - is simply too good. If they get slowed down, it won't be because of UF's defensive prowess. It will be because of rusty, unfocued play resulting from poor preparation on the part of Stoops.

Jenkins may be a freshman but myself and the rest of the Gator Fans are still waiting for him to make "mistakes," it simply hasn't happenend.

Murray/Brown time? Doing what? Certianly not being able to run, we;ve faced better backs and 2 better o-lines this season and had zero problems containing the run.

And I assure you, the UF defense will have a lot to do with mishaps on OU's offensive side of the ball. If you want to get technical, both Okie state and Mizzou consistently took away bradford's first read or 2. I don't know if this is the defensive scheme or bad route running by Sooner receivers but it was extremely eveident that these teams were able to take away his first read or 2. The problem is neither okie state or mizzou has any pass rush and Bradford sat back there had lunch and then dumped it off to Gresham 90% of time. Bradford simply won't be afforded that much time against UF. And let's not forget, the Sooner O-line has notoriously struggled vs fast and agile defensive lines which is exactly what UF brings to the table.

In any case, we'll agree to disagree and may the best team win. GL

 

[Flsunman]

Good points, Box, and I appreciate the rationality. You do a far better job of avoiding homerism. I know Demps and Rainey are extremely fast; I've seen the footage, watched the high school track tapes, and seen the 40 times. I just wanted to point out that they got caught; they aren't unstoppable. Make note of the field conditions, but as I said, FSU was running on the same field. Probably irrelevalant to this game as I don't think OU's defense is as fast as FSU's, but a point that I think needed to be made, as it perhaps plays a role in public perception and the idea/probable myth that "UF is the fastest team to ever take the field".

As for AJ Jones...he's good, without a doubt. But is he NFL linebacker good? Right now? Because Gresham, sans some catching troubles now and again (that he seems to have eliminated in OU's most recent big games), is an NFL-caliber tight end, right now. Personally, I don't see any linebacker in college right now that can cover him 1 vs. 1 all day. Spikes may have the best chance, but I'm not convinced he can run with him 30 yards and still make a play on the ball.

Anyway, the reality of this game is going to be which QB plays the better game. In my mind, your bet should be placed solely on who you think will have the better game. Bradford has a bad tendency of not sensing pocket pressure, and he could end up getting very flustered if UF finds a way to get pressure on him, but in the matchup of OU's o-line vs. UF's d-line, I think OU has a clear advantage and should be able to protect Bradford, thus giving him the time to pick apart yet another defense.

Well that's ok b/c Gresham doesn't run 30 yard routes to begin with. Also, Cunningham will own Loadholt with his speed and hopefully the refs will call a hold on him every now and again b/c he holds more than almost anybody I have ever seen.

 

[Flsunman]

Not one to argue typically, but there is not an LB in the country that can cover Gresham. I know this will sound biased, (maybe is somewhat)... But I know Gresham personally. The funny thing is that they list him at 6"5-6"6. He is easily 6"7-6"8. I GUARANTEE you of that. He can jump out of the gym (should see him hoop), AND his speed is matched by noone that is his size. Regardless of who you put on him he WILL get open and he WILL make plays. Simple as that. His hands are suspect, but its usually the wide open passes that he drops. Just saw that statement, and I had to respectfully disagree.

Well I guess we'll find out b/c a real linebacker hasn't covered him all year.

 

[MajorGCG]

Sunman you are wasting your breath. A Nole will never give UF any credit.

Back on subject, I just found this and thought it was interesting.

For the season OU played 1,958 offensive and defensive snaps, versus 1,626 for UF. If you adjust their stats down to the same number of plays that UF ran, it would look like this:


Florida Oklahoma
Average Points For 45.15 44.84
Average Points Allowed 12.80 20.35
Average Yards For 442.38 466.77
Average Yards Allowed 279.31 298.19

Conversely, adjusting UFs statistics upward to the same number of plays that they ran, the comparison would look like this:


Florida Oklahoma
Average Points For 54.37 54.00
Average Points Allowed 15.41 24.50
Average Yards For 532.71 562.08
Average Yards Allowed 336.34 359.08

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

Box, that's the longest explanation I've ever seen as to how lightning got harnassed. Franklin himself would be impressed.

Personally, I think your whole physics explanation is a bunch of gibberish though. If Rainey has to run farther, he also has a headstart - he's running full-speed towards the endzone when he comes through the whole, while the defender has to turn around and then get up to speed.

And since when can a UF football player not run 40 yards without getting so winded that it slows him down? C'mon, I know your track stars are in better shape than that.

Bottom line is Rainey had a groin-injury. That's fine, and a perfectly reasonable excuse. What about Demps though? Sure, Mangum may have had a slight angle, but Demps had everything right of the left hash-mark to work with, headed for the sideline, and he still ended up getting caught before the endzone. You're gonna tell me that this 100m track champion got winded, isn't stronger in the longs than Corey freaking Mangum, or Mangum spends more time running in mud?

I just think it deserves to be pointed out, because the media has perpetuated this myth that UF's speed guys are uncatchable, the fastest on earth, etc, and it builds up a public perception that is not entirely true.


As for this game...TNBanker did an excellent job pointing out part of what I'm saying. SEC offensive football this year flat-out sucked. It just did. Big 12 offensive football this year was flat-out amazing. The differences between the two conferences on this side of the ball is almost entirely responsible for the difference in stats/defensive rankings. The talent-level if comparable, as is the coaching...one team just played against offensive masterminds week after week, while the other played against a bunch of coaches about to be fired for their inability to field an offense.