My Off Season Thread - 2014

[russ1945]

Between the lines info:

The following teams play 10 straight regular season games before they get an off week: Central Michigan, Miami Ohio

The following teams play 9 straight regular season games before they get an off week: Ohio, U Mass, LSU

The following teams play 8 straight regular season games before they get an off week: Bowling Green, Texas A&M, Louisville, NC State, Purdue, Mid Tenn St, F.I.U. and N Mexico St

Cincinnati has weeks 1 & 2 off not playing their season opener until week 3.

TCU plays on week 1, is off on week 2, plays on week 3, and is off again on week 4.

 

[cloverleaf]

Enjoy the read my friend.

Russ, if you get around to it, love your take on Louisville.

New coach (rerun coach) who has a damn good quarterback

Out a defensive coach and In an offensive coach...team worth watching.

 

[russ1945]

Enjoy the read my friend.

Russ, if you get around to it, love your take on Louisville.

New coach (rerun coach) who has a damn good quarterback

Out a defensive coach and In an offensive coach...team worth watching.

Will do. Moving from the AAC to the ACC is quite a move. I have been kicking that team around. I like the new coaching staff but last year they did not face a ranked opponent. A lot to consider.

 

[russ1945]

I will start off with Louisville by assessing their spring game. Keep in mind that the defenses ran basic sets. Will Gardner looks like he can take up where Terry Bridgewater left off. He threw for 356 yards by halftime and finished 32/37/542 yds and 4 TD's. Remember former Auburn RB Michael Dryer, well he's back and he ran for 150 yds on 14 carries and as he ran for both the Red and the White. Watch out for Frosh RB L.J. Scott who had 92 yds on 13 rushes, he is ready to go already. Keep in mind the defense is replacing 7 players but it held the White team to 252 total yards. After the spring game Petrino said they were headed in the right direction but still have a long, long way to go. More on Louisville later.

 

[cloverleaf]

Petrino has really been bragging on Will Gardner lately. Thinks he has a stud at quarterback.

RB Michael Dryer rushed for over a 1000 yards during Auburn's national championship year.

Louisville may just have a dang good offensive team. Not like Charlie Strong didn't leave "motorcycle boy" some players.

 

[russ1945]

A little about Louisville HC Bobby Petrino, just coaching not his personal life. Also I thought I would mention, unless I am wrong here, Louisville has been in four different conferences in the since 2004 (CUSA, Big East, AAC, and ACC). So changing conferences is nothing new to this coach or this school. In fact Petrino will now have coached Louisville in 3 of those 4 conferences.

I have already commented before that I like Petrino and his staff. I personally think they are better than Strong and his staff at Texas. But that is just me. I know many are down on former Georgia DC Todd Grantham but his SEC experience could pay off in the ACC. We shall see.

Louisville definitely wanted Petrino back. His 24.5 million contract over 7 years speaks to that. His buyout is 10 million. Keep in mind his contract at Arkansas was 2.85 million per year for 5 years. Petrino lived in Louisville just as long as he loved in Fayetteville so he very comfortable in his surroundings. That is a plus.

His overall coaching record is 83-30 (73%). Excellent. In his 4 years at Arkansas he took them from 5-7 in his first year to 11-2 in his final year. His record within the SEC was 17-15.

So personal problems aside Petrino is top of the line against quality opponents. I think he will do just fine at Louisville and will get the most out of his players. More on Louisville later.

 

[russ1945]

Wrapping up on Louisville. Louisville plays 8 straight games before getting a week off. Could be good, could be bad. They will have 6 games under their belt before they face Clemson. Then they get a week off before playing Florida St on Oct 30th (Thur) and a week off before playing at Notre Dame on Nov 22nd. And although they are moving up from the AAC to the ACC Steele ranks them with the #115 ranked toughest schedule, only 11 teams in the NCAA have an easier schedule. Last year Lousiville faced the #89th toughest schedule and did not play any team that was ranked at the time they played them. And despite the move up Steele ranks Louisville #26 in his preseason poll. He is saying that they moved to the ACC and their schedule is easier this year than last year and puts them borderline top 25 to boot. They do avoid conference foes N. Carolina and Virginia Tech which helps. This team has sleeper written all over it. The opener at home against Miami Fl should give us a clue. I look for their offense to be explosive and for them to be very effective in the red zone with their running game (Dryer etc.). The OL is solid and experienced. Steele has the OL ranked #29.

Petrino has something to prove and if QB Gardner improves as the season progresses this team could surprise many people. Steele also says that Louisville is going down but in context that means he does not expect them to top last season's 12-1 record. That kind of makes you wonder why he ranks this season's schedule to be easier than last year's. I think that the Cardinals running game is going to be really good and will help take pressure off of Gardner. Petrino will have this team ready to play. I have said it before but I think Petrino and his staff is better than Strong's staff was last year. In his prior tenure at Louisville they went 41-9, granted that was not in the ACC. But he turned Arkansas around also and that seems to be his strength. I can see this team going 9-4 or 10-3. If they happen to get through that first 8 weeks undefeated and a win over Clemson then lookout. If Petrino earns his 3.5 million a year salary the Louisville fans will reap the benefits. According to Steele's experience chart all 11 returning starters are seniors. I give this team a solid thumbs up and I don't think anyone on their schedule is looking forward to facing them.

 

[russ1945]

Let's move on to TCU. Steele does not project TCU to be in the AP preseason top 25 but he pegs them at #14 on his top 25. Let me say up front that I do not agree and see TCU as a team that is paying the price for stepping up to the Big 12 where offenses prevail. Even though TCU was known as a defensive jugernaut while in the MWC they finished #54 in scoring defense in 2013 allowing 25.3 ppg and finished #87 in scoring offense with 25.1 ppg. That is an avg margin of -.02 ppg. Steele projects their avg margin to be +9.5 ppg in 2014, which is 4th in the Big 12. Yet he has them ranked #14 in his top 25. Whatever.

He ranks them to have the #11 defense in 2014 and the #11 special teams. Last year the Frogs finished 4-8 SU and 4-8 ATS. They return 8 on offense and 8 on defense. However they have new co-OC's (Meachem from Houston and Cumbie from Texas Tech) and they have a new QB (Joeckel who transferred from Texas A&M). He ranks TCU as his most improved team for 2014 of course based on their dismall 4-8 record last year. So 8-5 might qualify them that way but #14 in the nation, come on. I am on record that I like Steele's preseason magazine but that does not mean I agree with everything in it. Remember last year several teams that he had in his preseason top 25 did make the final top 25. This year I think one that will not stick is TCU.

HC Gary Patterson has been much better controlling his players on the field than off the field in recent years. His team has been hit with injuries and suspension etc. You could say he has had some excuses on the one hand but on the other hand his team has moved up in class and their record the past two years reflect that 11-14 overall , 7-11 in conference. Coaching against the likes of Stoops, Brown, Snyder, Briles and Gundy is no easy chore and newcomer Kingsbury beat them this year and they will have to go against Strong this year instead of Brown. Sorry, I just don't see it. If Steele is right then power to him. TCU may improve from 4-8, in fact they better or the pressure will be on Patterson that is for sure. Their record might have been 10-3 last year had they stayed in the MWC. I can see 8-5. Yes they have a knack for playing close games and that might be where Steele is coming from. We shall see.

 

[russ1945]

About Spring Games – I used to pay close attention to spring games but my philosophy has changed in recent years. Why, because more and more coaches are more concerned with keeping players healthy as much as anything else. Not to say the players hold back in these games after all they are trying to gain playing time. It is more about playing base defenses as much as anything. That in some ways penalizes a defense and enables the offense, especially new QB’s, to spend more time on mechanics and less time on reading defenses. Offenses usually shine in spring games. If they don’t shine it is probably because that team has a good and possibly experienced defense.

You can probably get just as good of a read for the new season by assessing the number of returning starters and their experience rankings. Throw in new head coaches and also offensive coordinators and defensive coordinators. One extreme example is with Georgia and their new OC. Jeremy Pruitt replaces Todd Grantham who was being blamed for what most described as an under achieving defense. Pruitt is what I call a hot coach who is supposed to make an immediate positive impact on the Georgia defense. Whereas Grantham is being written off and not much is expected from him at Lousiville. Well we shall see.

There are many sites out there that list all these coaching changes all you have to do is google it now days. But as far as spring games go the ones to scrutinize are the ones where there is a battle underway for a new starting QB. In those cases the QB’s are facing the same defenses etc. and their performances can be evaluated more accurately.

A lot will happen when fall practices begin. That period deserves much more attention than does the spring games. It is all part of the equation but certain things deserve more focus than others. BOL

 

[russ1945]

^^^^^^Pruitt and Grantham are DC's not OC's. Typo

 

[russ1945]

Let’s take a look at BYU. Last year BYU finished at 8-5 but a closer look is necessary to put everything into perspective. They lost their opener to Virginia. As I recall that game was delayed and I think the long trip and the delay were big time distractions and obstacles to overcome. They had Texas on week 2 and took it all out on them rushing for more yardage (550 yds) than any team in Longhorn history. Then came a let down against the following game against Utah which they lost. Other than that they lost to top rated teams Wisconsin, N. Dame, and in their bowl game to Washington.

In 2014 the Cougars face Texas on week 2 this time at Texas. This is a big game for both teams but you better believe this is Strong’s focus game at this point and time. No telling how many times he and his staff have watched the video of that game. They get a chance at revenge against Virginia on week 4, and do not play Utah, Notre Dame, Wisconsin or Washington during the regular season. So topping 8-5 should not be a problem. If they do beat Texas again look out but they could absorb that loss and still go 10-3 or 9-4 or if Hill stays healthy and the defense improves as the season progesses who knows.

They return 8 on offense and 6 on defense. They lose their top tackler Unga (143) which was 64 more than their number 2 tackler. Remember HC Mendenhall is his own DC. Hill returns along with all of their top rushers from last year. Last year they had the #12 ranked rushing offense and #5 ranked total offense. Hill was ranked as the #10 individual in total offense. He had 417 total yds against Houston, his biggest output of the season. Steele predicts they will have an average point differential (margin of victory) of 12.8 ppg. He has N. Dame ranked #17 in his preseason poll with an average pt diff of only 6.6 ppg. Hmmm. Yet he ranks BYU #37 in that same poll.

I think BYU should do just fine. The Texas game will be one to remember. Texas will be up big time for that one at home this time. Either way I think BYU can crack the top 25 at season’s end. They finished 5-7-1 ATS last year so I look for improvement there as well. Mendenhall is a very good coach and his record of 82-24 (77%). So circle that Texas game as one to watch and also circle that Virginia game also as the Cougars will be on opposite side of the revenge factor against Texas and in the revenge mode against Virginia. BOL

 

[russ1945]

The Bleacher Report has an article with their choices as the top 15 DC’s in college football. At #13 is Brent Venables. It reports that they broke the bank to get Venables. And then they say it was definitely worth it. They credit him as a big reason why Clemson has made a big turn around. Really, ask any Sooner fan and they will tell you they were relieved to “get rid” of Venables. Indeed they will all agree that they are much better off with the return of Mike Stoops who they rank #7.

I think it speaks more to the offenses in the Big 12 as opposed to those Venables has faced since leaving Oklahoma. I don’t think you could find a single OU fan who would want Venables back.

There could be a parallel between Venables leaving OU and finding success at Georgia and Todd Grantham leaving Georgia and succeeding at Louisville. Georgia fans wanted him out just like the OU fans wanted Venables out. Grantham like Venables is stepping down as far as the level of competition is concerned. In the 4 seasons Grantham was at Georgia they went to 4 bowls and went 36-18-1.

Remember he coached 11 years the DL in the NFL. In his second season at Georgia the defense finished #5 in scoring defense (15.6 ppg), 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in rushing defense (90.5 ypg), 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in sacks, and 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in total defense (315.9 ypg). Remember that is the SEC we are mainly referring to here. During his career he has worked with Frank Beamer/Bud Foster, Nick Saban, Romeo Crennel, Dom Capers and Wade Phillips.

I think Louisville was very fortunate to get Grantham and I think he at least match the success that Venables has had since leaving Oklahoma.

 

[russ1945]

[h=2]Report: Collin Klein Will Return To Kansas State, Join Bill Snyder’s Staff[/h]Bill DiFilippo
Former Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein is calling it a playing career, and will reportedly return to Manhattan as a member of the Wildcats’ staff. Klein famously led Kansas State to an 11-2 record in 2012, helped the team win its first Big 12 title since 2003, and was a finalist for the Heisman Trophy, ultimately coming in third behind Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel and Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o. In his career, Klein threw for 4,573 yards, 29 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He also ran for 2,455 yards and 55 touchdowns.
There is no word on exactly what role Klein will have on Bill Snyder’s staff. Klein was a member of the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League prior to his return to KSU.

 

[russ1945]

Steele is predicting that the AP preseason poll will have Missouri in the top 25. He has them rated #41 in his preseason review. I am sure Steele is taking into consideration that Mizzou only return (4) on offense and (4) on defense. Mizzou finished off the 2013-14 season with an impressive win over Oklahoma State. HC Gary Pinkel surprised everyone as last year’s team exceeded all expectations (except his) going 12-2 losing only to S Carolina in 2 OT’s and to Auburn in the SEC title game. In 2012 they went 2-6 in SEC conference play and in 2013 went 7-1 in regular season conference play. Last year they returned 14 starters and were obviously well coached and well motivated. DC Dave Steckel has been with Pinkel since the get go but last year Josh Henson was promoted to OC and the results speak for themselves. In 2012-13 Mizzou finished #80 in scoring offense (25.75 ppg) and under Henson last year finished #13 (39.1 ppg). Their point differential went from – 2.67 ppg in 2012 to + 16 ppg in 2013.

The Tigers conference schedule is actually a little easier this year than last. However, they play at South Carolina and at Florida and at Texas A&M. They avoid Alabama, Auburn and LSU. The question is just how far can this team go with so few returning starters. Well for starters QB Maty Mauck is back. Last year he threw 11 TD’s and only 2 Int’s as a backup to James Franklin. He also averaged 5.6 yards per carry. They return 2 of their top 3 RB’s but lose their top 3 WR’s. Steele also shows that last season Mizzou was a + 16 in TO’s. It may be worth noting that Steele also shows that 10 of this year’s starters will be Seniors.

To stay at the top Mizzou will need to beat S. Carolina and Florida on their home fields. They host Georgia this year. Will they match last year’s 12-2, probably not. But this team has made the transition to the SEC in a surprising fashion. I think Mauck is a big play guy and he is a competitor with leadership qualities. That kind of QB can rub off on his team mates. It can’t hurt that WR Darius White transferred in from Texas. On defense that is where DC Steckel’s experience could be the difference maker. If their defense can somehow match last season’s stats then the Tigers could do it again. A favorable schedule, good coaching, and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year in the SEC bode well. Mauck could become a household word when all is said and done and if so this team could win 9 or 10 games and will be road dogs against S Carolina and Florida. Once they get by Florida their last 5 games are winable as are their first 4 games. We shall see. BOL

 

[russ1945]

I was studing up on Washinngton St and I came across this. HC Mike Leach calls his own plays but this season he made a very interesting addition to his coaching staff:

Graham Harrell Position: Offensive Analyst Hometown: Ennis, Texas Alma Mater: Texas Tech, 2007 Experience: 1st Year

Graham Harrell begins is first year at Washington State University as an offensive analyst, assisting the Cougar offense with film breakdown, player evaluations and game planning. Harrell spent the 2010 season in Canadian Football League before spending three seasons (2010-12) with the Green Bay Packers, earning a Super Bowl in ring in 2010. Harrell was a record-setting quarterback at Texas Tech University from 2004-08 for Cougar head coach Mike Leach, finishing his career with an NCAA-record 134 touchdown passes, the second-most career yards (15,793) in NCAA history and with the third-highest career passing average with 350.96 yards-per-game. As a junior, the Ennis, Texas native was an All-Big-12 Conference second team selection and Gator Bowl MVP, finishing the year with a school-record 5,707 passing yards, the second-highest season total ever in the NCAA FBS ranks, to go along with his 48 touchdown passes. In each of his three seasons as a starter, his passing yardage figures placed in the Top 25 all-time at the FBS level (21st in 2006 with 4,555 yards and sixth in 2008 with 5,111 yards). As a senior, Harrell was named AT&T's All-America Player of the Year, and was a First-Team All-American after leading the country with 5,111-passing yards while tossing 45 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Harrell earned his bachelor’s degree in history in 2007. Harrell and his wife, Brittney married in March, 2012.

 

[russ1945]

^^^^^keep in mind that Washington St returns QB Conner Halliday who finished #3 in passing in 2013, their top 2 rushers, and their top 8 receivers from 2013. Although they finished the season 6-7 SU they were 9-4 ATS. They were dogs of +9 or more 7 times winning 2 of those games SU (USC and Arizona). Mike Leach overall in his career is 93-59 (61%).

It will be interesting to see if Harrell has an impact on this offense. Perhaps he can get the rushing game involved. In 2013 Washington St ranked dead last in rushing offense. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Interesting - on June 19 I posted on Kansas St and Iowa which are teams not mentioned in most top 25 preseason polls. On June 20th (what are the chances). Also includes Louisville who I have already written up also. Steele posts an article well worth the read on which teams boil down as potential contenders for the national championship. Guess what all three teams made the final 15 list. You can find the article at philsteele.com. Here are the final 15 contenders:

The Final 15 Teams Who Fit the
National Championship Mold in 2014

Alabama

Baylor

Clemson

Florida St

Iowa

Kansas St

Louisville

LSU

Michigan St

Ohio St

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

Stanford

USC

Wisconsin

 

[SundayTiger]

^

Where the hell is Auburn on that list? I got it Auburn, Ole Miss, Bama in that order in the SEC west.

 

[SundayTiger]

Russ, you are dead on with Lousiville. They are going to be a real sleeper team and will def have value. Them and ole miss are my future calls. I'm foaming at the mouth for 5D to release their conference futures. Ville at 250-1 is worth a few beer bucks.

Also have a few bucks on auburn to win it all at 25-1 which you can't find now.

 

[russ1945]

^

Where the hell is Auburn on that list? I got it Auburn, Ole Miss, Bama in that order in the SEC west.

You can read that article on philsteele.com. He goes through a process of elimination and you can follow his reasoning. I am studying LSU right now. They are not usually that good ATS but this might be their year. What a coaching staff. More on them later.