Let’s take a look at the 2013-14 preseason picks by AP and see what we find.
The AP preseason top 25 listed the following: (1) Alabama, (2) Ohio St, (3) Oregon, (4) Stanford, (5) Georgia, (6) South Carolina, (7) Texas A&M, (8) Clemson, (9) Louisville, (10) Florida, (11) Florida St, (12) LSU, (13) Okla State, (14) Notre Dame, (15) Texas, (16) Oklahoma, (17) Michigan, (18) Nebraska, (19) Boise St, (20) TCU, (21) UCLA, (22) Northwestern, (23) Wisconsin, (24) USC, (25) Oregon St.
Here is the AP final poll for 2013-14: (1) Florida St, (2) Auburn, (3) Michigan St, (4) S. Carolina, (5) Missouri, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Alabama, (8) Clemson, (9) Oregon, (10) UCF, (11) Stanford, (12) Ohio St, (13) Baylor, (14) LSU, (15) Louisville, (16) UCLA, (17) Okla State, (18) Texas A&M, (19) USC, (20) Arizona St, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Wisconsin, (23) Duke, (24) Vanderbilt, (25) Washington.
So the following teams dropped out of the top 25 by the end of the season – the number in brackets beside each team’s name is the ATS record for 2013-14: Florida (4-8), Texas (6-7), Michigan (7-6), Boise St (6-7), TCU (4-8), Northwestern (3-9), and Oregon St (7-6). Combined these teams that were ranked in the AP preseason poll that did not stick until the final poll went 47-66 ATS (42%).
By contrast the following teams were not ranked in the preseason top 25 but made the final top 25. Again their ATS records are shown same as above: Auburn (12-2), Mizzou (11-2-1), UCF (8-5), Baylor (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Arizona St (7-7), Duke (10-3-1), Vanderbilt (7-6), and Washington (7-6). Combined these teams went 80-39 ATS (67%).
This past season’s results are pretty standard going back several years. Teams that were not ranked in the preseason AP poll that make the final AP poll are bet on teams as a group. In fact at 7-7 Arizona St was the only break even team ATS out of that group. People that rode Auburn, Mizzou, Baylor, UCLA and Duke went 51-15-2 ATS (77%).
The trick is to do your homework and try to find those teams as early as possible, ideally before the season starts. But as the season unveils usually by the end of Sept some unrated teams are already being ranked or off to much better starts than expected.
Let’s take a little time to take this all in. I will be back in a few days and do the same breakdown for Phil Steele’s 2013-14 preseason top 25 and how they fared by the final poll. As a rule no less than 7 teams don’t make it for any preseason poll, AP, Steele, or otherwise. But these two are consistent and respected so I will concentrate on these. Then we will begin to analyze the 2014-15 preseason polls for both the AP and Phil Steele. I will base the AP poll on Steele’s annual prediction of who will be on that poll. That poll will not actually come out until August, much too late to do what we want to do. BOL
The AP preseason top 25 listed the following: (1) Alabama, (2) Ohio St, (3) Oregon, (4) Stanford, (5) Georgia, (6) South Carolina, (7) Texas A&M, (8) Clemson, (9) Louisville, (10) Florida, (11) Florida St, (12) LSU, (13) Okla State, (14) Notre Dame, (15) Texas, (16) Oklahoma, (17) Michigan, (18) Nebraska, (19) Boise St, (20) TCU, (21) UCLA, (22) Northwestern, (23) Wisconsin, (24) USC, (25) Oregon St.
Here is the AP final poll for 2013-14: (1) Florida St, (2) Auburn, (3) Michigan St, (4) S. Carolina, (5) Missouri, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Alabama, (8) Clemson, (9) Oregon, (10) UCF, (11) Stanford, (12) Ohio St, (13) Baylor, (14) LSU, (15) Louisville, (16) UCLA, (17) Okla State, (18) Texas A&M, (19) USC, (20) Arizona St, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Wisconsin, (23) Duke, (24) Vanderbilt, (25) Washington.
So the following teams dropped out of the top 25 by the end of the season – the number in brackets beside each team’s name is the ATS record for 2013-14: Florida (4-8), Texas (6-7), Michigan (7-6), Boise St (6-7), TCU (4-8), Northwestern (3-9), and Oregon St (7-6). Combined these teams that were ranked in the AP preseason poll that did not stick until the final poll went 47-66 ATS (42%).
By contrast the following teams were not ranked in the preseason top 25 but made the final top 25. Again their ATS records are shown same as above: Auburn (12-2), Mizzou (11-2-1), UCF (8-5), Baylor (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Arizona St (7-7), Duke (10-3-1), Vanderbilt (7-6), and Washington (7-6). Combined these teams went 80-39 ATS (67%).
This past season’s results are pretty standard going back several years. Teams that were not ranked in the preseason AP poll that make the final AP poll are bet on teams as a group. In fact at 7-7 Arizona St was the only break even team ATS out of that group. People that rode Auburn, Mizzou, Baylor, UCLA and Duke went 51-15-2 ATS (77%).
The trick is to do your homework and try to find those teams as early as possible, ideally before the season starts. But as the season unveils usually by the end of Sept some unrated teams are already being ranked or off to much better starts than expected.
Let’s take a little time to take this all in. I will be back in a few days and do the same breakdown for Phil Steele’s 2013-14 preseason top 25 and how they fared by the final poll. As a rule no less than 7 teams don’t make it for any preseason poll, AP, Steele, or otherwise. But these two are consistent and respected so I will concentrate on these. Then we will begin to analyze the 2014-15 preseason polls for both the AP and Phil Steele. I will base the AP poll on Steele’s annual prediction of who will be on that poll. That poll will not actually come out until August, much too late to do what we want to do. BOL
Ignore Post 143 and replace it with this post. Needed correcting:
Let’s take a look at the 2013-14 preseason picks by AP and see what we find.
The AP preseason top 25 listed the following: (1) Alabama, (2) Ohio St, (3) Oregon, (4) Stanford, (5) Georgia, (6) South Carolina, (7) Texas A&M, (8) Clemson, (9) Louisville, (10) Florida, (11) Florida St, (12) LSU, (13) Okla State, (14) Notre Dame, (15) Texas, (16) Oklahoma, (17) Michigan, (18) Nebraska, (19) Boise St, (20) TCU, (21) UCLA, (22) Northwestern, (23) Wisconsin, (24) USC, (25) Oregon St.
Here is the AP final poll for 2013-14: (1) Florida St, (2) Auburn, (3) Michigan St, (4) S. Carolina, (5) Missouri, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Alabama, (8) Clemson, (9) Oregon, (10) UCF, (11) Stanford, (12) Ohio St, (13) Baylor, (14) LSU, (15) Louisville, (16) UCLA, (17) Okla State, (18) Texas A&M, (19) USC, (20) Arizona St, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Wisconsin, (23) Duke, (24) Vanderbilt, (25) Washington.
So the following teams dropped out of the top 25 by the end of the season – the number in brackets beside each team’s name is the ATS record for 2013-14: Florida (4-8), Texas (6-7), Michigan (7-6), Nebraska (7-6) Boise St (6-7), TCU (4-8), Northwestern (3-9), and Oregon St (7-6). Combined these teams that were ranked in the AP preseason poll that did not stick until the final poll went 44-57 ATS (44%).
By contrast the following teams were not ranked in the preseason top 25 but made the final top 25. Again their ATS records are shown same as above: Auburn (12-2), Mizzou (11-2-1), UCF (8-5), Baylor (9-4), Arizona St (7-7), Duke (10-3-1), Vanderbilt (7-6), and Washington (7-6). Combined these teams went 71-35 ATS (67%).
This past season’s results are pretty standard going back several years. Teams that were not ranked in the preseason AP poll that make the final AP poll are bet on teams as a group. In fact at 7-7 Arizona St was the only break even team ATS out of that group. People that rode Auburn, Mizzou, Baylor, and Duke went 42-11-2 (79%).
The trick is to do your homework and try to find those teams as early as possible, ideally before the season starts. But as the season unveils usually by the end of Sept some unrated teams are already being ranked or off to much better starts than expected.
Let’s take a little time to take this all in. I will be back in a few days and do the same breakdown for Phil Steele’s 2013-14 preseason top 25 and how they fared by the final poll. As a rule no less than 7 teams don’t make it for any preseason poll, AP, Steele, or otherwise. But these two are consistent and respected so I will concentrate on these. Then we will begin to analyze the 2014-15 preseason polls for both the AP and Phil Steele. I will base the AP poll on Steele’s annual prediction of who will be on that poll. That poll will not actually come out until August, much too late to do what we want to do. BOL
Let’s take a look at the 2013-14 preseason picks by AP and see what we find.
The AP preseason top 25 listed the following: (1) Alabama, (2) Ohio St, (3) Oregon, (4) Stanford, (5) Georgia, (6) South Carolina, (7) Texas A&M, (8) Clemson, (9) Louisville, (10) Florida, (11) Florida St, (12) LSU, (13) Okla State, (14) Notre Dame, (15) Texas, (16) Oklahoma, (17) Michigan, (18) Nebraska, (19) Boise St, (20) TCU, (21) UCLA, (22) Northwestern, (23) Wisconsin, (24) USC, (25) Oregon St.
Here is the AP final poll for 2013-14: (1) Florida St, (2) Auburn, (3) Michigan St, (4) S. Carolina, (5) Missouri, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Alabama, (8) Clemson, (9) Oregon, (10) UCF, (11) Stanford, (12) Ohio St, (13) Baylor, (14) LSU, (15) Louisville, (16) UCLA, (17) Okla State, (18) Texas A&M, (19) USC, (20) Arizona St, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Wisconsin, (23) Duke, (24) Vanderbilt, (25) Washington.
So the following teams dropped out of the top 25 by the end of the season – the number in brackets beside each team’s name is the ATS record for 2013-14: Florida (4-8), Texas (6-7), Michigan (7-6), Nebraska (7-6) Boise St (6-7), TCU (4-8), Northwestern (3-9), and Oregon St (7-6). Combined these teams that were ranked in the AP preseason poll that did not stick until the final poll went 44-57 ATS (44%).
By contrast the following teams were not ranked in the preseason top 25 but made the final top 25. Again their ATS records are shown same as above: Auburn (12-2), Mizzou (11-2-1), UCF (8-5), Baylor (9-4), Arizona St (7-7), Duke (10-3-1), Vanderbilt (7-6), and Washington (7-6). Combined these teams went 71-35 ATS (67%).
This past season’s results are pretty standard going back several years. Teams that were not ranked in the preseason AP poll that make the final AP poll are bet on teams as a group. In fact at 7-7 Arizona St was the only break even team ATS out of that group. People that rode Auburn, Mizzou, Baylor, and Duke went 42-11-2 (79%).
The trick is to do your homework and try to find those teams as early as possible, ideally before the season starts. But as the season unveils usually by the end of Sept some unrated teams are already being ranked or off to much better starts than expected.
Let’s take a little time to take this all in. I will be back in a few days and do the same breakdown for Phil Steele’s 2013-14 preseason top 25 and how they fared by the final poll. As a rule no less than 7 teams don’t make it for any preseason poll, AP, Steele, or otherwise. But these two are consistent and respected so I will concentrate on these. Then we will begin to analyze the 2014-15 preseason polls for both the AP and Phil Steele. I will base the AP poll on Steele’s annual prediction of who will be on that poll. That poll will not actually come out until August, much too late to do what we want to do. BOL
Phil Steele’s 2013-14 Preseason top 25 was as follows: (1) Alabama, (2) Ohio St, (3) Florida St, (4) Texas, (5) Oregon, (6) USC, (7) Louisville, (8) Okla State, (9) Georgia, (10), N. Dame, (11) Stanford, (12) Vir Tech, (13) Texas A&M, (14) S. Carolina, (15) Clemson, (16) Nebraska, (17) LSU, (18) Florida, (19) Oklahoma, (20) Wisonsin, (21) TCU, (22) Fresno St, (23) Michigan St, (24) Michigan, and (25) Miami Fl.
So the following teams dropped out of Steele’s preseason top 25 (again their won-lost ATS record is in brackets): Texas (6-7), Georgia (3-9-1), Vir Tech (4-8-1), Nebraska (7-6), Florida (4-8), TCU (4-8), Fresno St (4-8-1), Michigan (7-6), and Miami Fl (5-8). Those teams combined went 44-68 ATS (37%). In this case those teams were bet against teams for sure.
By contrast the following teams were not ranked in Steele’s preseason top 25 but made the AP final top 25: Auburn ((12-2), Mizzou (11-2-1), UCF (8-5), Baylor (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Arizona St (7-7), Duke (10-3-1), Vanderbilt (7-6), Washington (7-6). Combined these teams went 80-38 ATS (68%).
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I decided to go ahead and post Steele’s results now so that you can see that preseason polls are not that dependable although they may have an impact on lines early in the season. The AP preseason poll had 8 teams wipeout and Steele had 9 teams not make it to the final AP top 25.
I have stressed for several years on here that it is important to screen teams and to scrutinize the preseason polls and now you see why. Teams that are not ranked and make the final poll are worth following. It is difficult to find reliable trends but this one has been consistent in recent years. Like I said before I will consider other factors but the theme of this thread will be to find the sleepers or at least the teams whose performance will exceed their expectations as perceived by pollsters.
So the following teams dropped out of Steele’s preseason top 25 (again their won-lost ATS record is in brackets): Texas (6-7), Georgia (3-9-1), Vir Tech (4-8-1), Nebraska (7-6), Florida (4-8), TCU (4-8), Fresno St (4-8-1), Michigan (7-6), and Miami Fl (5-8). Those teams combined went 44-68 ATS (37%). In this case those teams were bet against teams for sure.
By contrast the following teams were not ranked in Steele’s preseason top 25 but made the AP final top 25: Auburn ((12-2), Mizzou (11-2-1), UCF (8-5), Baylor (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Arizona St (7-7), Duke (10-3-1), Vanderbilt (7-6), Washington (7-6). Combined these teams went 80-38 ATS (68%).
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I decided to go ahead and post Steele’s results now so that you can see that preseason polls are not that dependable although they may have an impact on lines early in the season. The AP preseason poll had 8 teams wipeout and Steele had 9 teams not make it to the final AP top 25.
I have stressed for several years on here that it is important to screen teams and to scrutinize the preseason polls and now you see why. Teams that are not ranked and make the final poll are worth following. It is difficult to find reliable trends but this one has been consistent in recent years. Like I said before I will consider other factors but the theme of this thread will be to find the sleepers or at least the teams whose performance will exceed their expectations as perceived by pollsters.
This is fascinating stuff Russ , but the million dollar question is - at what point last season could we have identified these teams ?
If Georgia went 3-9-1 against the spread when would we have figured this out ? ... i guess if a team starts 0-3 ats we could assume they will have a losing ats record , but at that point were a little late to jump on the bus.
It is called gambling for a reason. lol That is where doing your homework is paramount. The million dollar answer (not question) is to weed the teams out and for the first month or so carefully relate their weekly opponents to the line. No one is right all of the time. I emphasize the combined stats simply to show that focusing in on the dropouts and the replacements is one way to gain an edge. You can make adjustments accordingly as the season progresses.
First, I buy Steele's Mag every year...along with about 15 others. I have found the past few years when it comes to capping/selecting games...I just don't go to Steele much. Not a knock...certainly information a gaming man would want to have...but for me, not much help when the rubber meets the road.
I've learned to study lines....long and hard. Books can tell you a lot each week my friends. If they can't cowboy up during the season...then they go out of business.
I haven't been to Vegas lately.......but lights are still ON!
I've learned to study lines....long and hard. Books can tell you a lot each week my friends. If they can't cowboy up during the season...then they go out of business.
I haven't been to Vegas lately.......but lights are still ON!
I just rely on his preseason mag, I don't follow his picks personally. But his preseason stuff is hard to beat. Again, 7 or more of his preseason top 25 probably won't make it until the end of the season but it is somewhere to start. The secret is to separate yourself from the pack, lines often reflect public opinion. Books stay in business catering to the general public and are able to absorb the offsets of the big boys in Vegas by doing so. Even the big boys are not right all the time either. Keep in mind studying lines long and hard can be good but you want to anticipate line movements at the same time. You should be ready when the lines come out for that reason.
Russ, my goal each season in college football is 58 percent. That's spending money for me, but more importantly, "meals on wheels" in my town and other stuff that can help some folks. Gaming is a sport (fun) for me and my crowd...and if we can win...we share.
Hit right at 60% last year for over 8 grand. Gave just about all of it away because that's not why we play. If I or any of my friends were broke...I certainly wouldn't be gambling to solve the problem.
Gamings can be fun....it can also be a bad dream my friends.
Hit right at 60% last year for over 8 grand. Gave just about all of it away because that's not why we play. If I or any of my friends were broke...I certainly wouldn't be gambling to solve the problem.
Gamings can be fun....it can also be a bad dream my friends.
Looking back at 2013 we find that both the AP and Steele only had 4 of their top 10 preseason picks finish in the final top 25. That should tell you something. The AP was high on Georgia and Florida and Steele was high on Texas, USC, Louisville, and Georgia. Neither had Auburn (finished #2) or Michigan St (finished #3), or Missouri (finished #5) in their top 25. Auburn finished 12-2 ATS, Mich St 9-4-1 ATS, and Mizzou finished 11-2-1 ATS. If you eliminated the SEC championship game in which Auburn played Mizzou the combined ATS record of those 3 teams was 31-7-2 (82%). So had you bet $100 on nothing but those teams all season and not bet the SEC championship game you would have netted $2,330.00. How did you do last season.
So the first step in my elimination process is looking for teams who are not even in the 2014 preseason teams for the AP and Steele. That is a a process of elimination that we can pursue in the weeks leading up the start of the 2014-15 season. BOL
So the first step in my elimination process is looking for teams who are not even in the 2014 preseason teams for the AP and Steele. That is a a process of elimination that we can pursue in the weeks leading up the start of the 2014-15 season. BOL
One team that intrigues me is Kansas St. You just never know what Bill Snyder has up his sleeve. With a history of signing Juco’s and transfers Snyder has a knack for fitting the pieces of a puzzle together as quick as anybody in college football. Last year K St rallied after their embarrassing loss to N. D State in their opener to win 5 of their last 6 regular season games losing only to Oklahoma 31-41. They went on to win their Bowl game against Michigan 31-14. So in their last 7 games they outscored their opponents 251 to 141 going 6-1 straight up. They finished 8-5 SU & 8-5 ATS. Their five losses were by an average of 7.4 ppg (3-10-4-10-10).
They have (6) returning on offense, and (5) on defense which is better than last year (8) on offense and (2) on defense. Actually their offense has QB Jake Waters returning, is a former NJCAA offensive player of the year, and is the reason Daniel Sams transferred. In their bowl win over Michigan Waters was 21-27 for 271 yds and 3 TD’s. The biggest asset returning however is WR Tyler Lockett. In fact Kansas St has 3 players on Steele’s preseason All-American team. They are WR Tyler Lockett, DE Ryan Mueller, and OL BJ Finney.
Last year K ST finished #37 in scoring offense (33.2 ppg) and #31 in scoring defense (22.9 ppg) for average scoring margin of +10.3 ppg.
One thing about K St and Snyder is that it is so difficult to compare their teams to other teams in terms of experience rankings because of the Juco’s and transfers. Three Juco’s are ranked by Steele Juco incoming players. They are #9 Terrell Clinkscales (DL), #17 D’Vonta Derricott (MLB), and #74 Danzel McDaniel (DB).
They do have 5 conference road games including Baylor, OU, and TCU and they host Auburn at home on week 4 (both teams are off on week 3). So how can this team get into the top 25 and how can they have a winning record ATS. For starters they could have a winning record ATS and not make the final top 25. But I can see them going 9-4 and maybe have an upset or two to boot. They have pulled off 13 upsets in the past 5 years, again according to Steele.
I think Snyder will emphasize coming out of the chute this season and can point to their loss to ND St in last seasons opener for inspiration. Snyder is in his 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] year as a head coach and his 6[SUP]th[/SUP] since coming out of retirement. His experience speaks for itself but his success speaks even louder. He is a coach’s coach. Everyone counted this team out in 2012 and look what happened. Could 2014 be repeat? BOL
They have (6) returning on offense, and (5) on defense which is better than last year (8) on offense and (2) on defense. Actually their offense has QB Jake Waters returning, is a former NJCAA offensive player of the year, and is the reason Daniel Sams transferred. In their bowl win over Michigan Waters was 21-27 for 271 yds and 3 TD’s. The biggest asset returning however is WR Tyler Lockett. In fact Kansas St has 3 players on Steele’s preseason All-American team. They are WR Tyler Lockett, DE Ryan Mueller, and OL BJ Finney.
Last year K ST finished #37 in scoring offense (33.2 ppg) and #31 in scoring defense (22.9 ppg) for average scoring margin of +10.3 ppg.
One thing about K St and Snyder is that it is so difficult to compare their teams to other teams in terms of experience rankings because of the Juco’s and transfers. Three Juco’s are ranked by Steele Juco incoming players. They are #9 Terrell Clinkscales (DL), #17 D’Vonta Derricott (MLB), and #74 Danzel McDaniel (DB).
They do have 5 conference road games including Baylor, OU, and TCU and they host Auburn at home on week 4 (both teams are off on week 3). So how can this team get into the top 25 and how can they have a winning record ATS. For starters they could have a winning record ATS and not make the final top 25. But I can see them going 9-4 and maybe have an upset or two to boot. They have pulled off 13 upsets in the past 5 years, again according to Steele.
I think Snyder will emphasize coming out of the chute this season and can point to their loss to ND St in last seasons opener for inspiration. Snyder is in his 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] year as a head coach and his 6[SUP]th[/SUP] since coming out of retirement. His experience speaks for itself but his success speaks even louder. He is a coach’s coach. Everyone counted this team out in 2012 and look what happened. Could 2014 be repeat? BOL
I agree about KSU Russ. They seem to be overlooked every year. Probably more so this year with the buzz about Baylor and OU. With the way they play field position and special teams they are always a handful. And they almost always offer some value when they are made the dogs in their games. This year looks no different. Plus Waters is one of the top 4 QB's in the conference. This is basically the only team in the country who plays better than their recruiting rankings year after year.
You will notice me quoting Steele a lot, why, because he is worth quoting. The past few years I have done untold research on my own. At the same time I have searched for sites and sources that I can trust and that had stats etc that I could verify. My number one source at the beginning of the year has always been Steele’s preseason magazine. Not that you can’t take or leave some of the content. But what he presents gives a lot of insight and represents a lot of research on their part. They have stats that nobody else has. I am not promoting his magazine simply admitting up front that I do rely on it and to give credit where credit is due.
Now for another team to consider who is not in the preseason top 25 but might get there by season’s end. How about Iowa. Last year they lost the services of QB James Vandenburg and in total retuned 6 starters on offense and 7 on offense. QB Jake Ruddock emerged as the new starter and wound up the #62 ranked passer in the nation. Certainly not impressive but the Hawkeyes finished 8-5 and were very competitive. They finished #80 in scoring offense (26.3 ppg) and #9 in scoring defense (19.0 ppg) for an average margin of victory of +7.3 ppg.
HC Kirk Ferentz is entering his 16[SUP]th[/SUP] year and Iowa. He has a QB that should improve and in all returns 8 on offense and 5 on defense. They return all their top rushers and 4 of their top 5 WR’s. However, that #9 defense loses their top 4 tacklers. But it is the systems that carry Iowa and they are well established. If the offense can be more productive and the defense can improve as the season progresses there is no reason to believe this team cannot beat last years record of 8-5 (also 8-5 ATS).
So let’s look at this years schedule. For starters they do not play Ohio St, Michigan St. Steele points out that last year 3 of their losses were to NIU, Mich St, and Ohio St, 3 teams that only had only one loss during the regular season. This year they get NW, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all at home and all in the month of November, plenty of time to improve and possibly to peak.
These guys are not a team anyone looks forward to playing especially conference foes. If the QB play improves and the defense can continue to be one of their constants this team could make the final top 25. With out of conference games against N. Iowa, Ball St, Iowa St, and Pitt this team could start out 4-0. I can see them starting out 7-0 actually. I think this teams is definitely a team to watch. BOL
Now for another team to consider who is not in the preseason top 25 but might get there by season’s end. How about Iowa. Last year they lost the services of QB James Vandenburg and in total retuned 6 starters on offense and 7 on offense. QB Jake Ruddock emerged as the new starter and wound up the #62 ranked passer in the nation. Certainly not impressive but the Hawkeyes finished 8-5 and were very competitive. They finished #80 in scoring offense (26.3 ppg) and #9 in scoring defense (19.0 ppg) for an average margin of victory of +7.3 ppg.
HC Kirk Ferentz is entering his 16[SUP]th[/SUP] year and Iowa. He has a QB that should improve and in all returns 8 on offense and 5 on defense. They return all their top rushers and 4 of their top 5 WR’s. However, that #9 defense loses their top 4 tacklers. But it is the systems that carry Iowa and they are well established. If the offense can be more productive and the defense can improve as the season progresses there is no reason to believe this team cannot beat last years record of 8-5 (also 8-5 ATS).
So let’s look at this years schedule. For starters they do not play Ohio St, Michigan St. Steele points out that last year 3 of their losses were to NIU, Mich St, and Ohio St, 3 teams that only had only one loss during the regular season. This year they get NW, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all at home and all in the month of November, plenty of time to improve and possibly to peak.
These guys are not a team anyone looks forward to playing especially conference foes. If the QB play improves and the defense can continue to be one of their constants this team could make the final top 25. With out of conference games against N. Iowa, Ball St, Iowa St, and Pitt this team could start out 4-0. I can see them starting out 7-0 actually. I think this teams is definitely a team to watch. BOL
Rakeem Cato is a play I have been following since his Sophomore year. He leads the Marshall Thundering Herd into the 2014 campaign as a seasoned senior. In 2012 the Herd finished 5-7 and in 2013 improved to 10-4 SU (9-5ATS). They went into the 2013 season with 8 starters on offense and 7 on defense. This year they return 6 on offense and 8 on defense and return 59 lettermen and only lose 15 (Steele). This is a program on the rise that is for sure. The level of competition is also a factor that must be acknowledged. In 2013 they faced the #111 toughest schedule and this year will face Steele’s #118[SUP]th[/SUP].
Last year they lost at Ohio (31-34), at Virginia Tech in 3 OT (21-29, at Mid Tenn St (49-51) and at Rice in their reg season finale (24-41). So they lost 4 out of 7 road games, not very good. This year they play 6 on the road and against much easier competition and get a shot at revenge against Rice at home.
I saw it coming last year and I think this year could be better. Cato is simply awesome. In 2013 he threw for 3916 yds and 39 TD’s and in 2012 threw for 4201 yds and 37 TD’s. His leading receiver Tommy Shuler also returns.
Doc Holiday has been putting it together and this could be his shot at gaining some national attention along with Cato. Neither is a household name for sure but by season’s end they might be. They return 11 of their top 12 tacklers to top it all off. Despite playing only the 111[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest schedule in 2013 they rallied off of their loss to Rice to beat Maryland in their bowl game 31-20.
It is also worth mentioning that DC Chuck Heater made a big difference on the defensive side. He returns and his defense is loaded. They do not play Virginia Tech in 2014 and the 3 other teams they lost to on the road in 2013 will be home games in 2014. I look for Cato to close out his career with a bang and this should be a team to watch and could make the AP final top 25. Steele has them but he is saying the AP will not. We shall see. BOL
Last year they lost at Ohio (31-34), at Virginia Tech in 3 OT (21-29, at Mid Tenn St (49-51) and at Rice in their reg season finale (24-41). So they lost 4 out of 7 road games, not very good. This year they play 6 on the road and against much easier competition and get a shot at revenge against Rice at home.
I saw it coming last year and I think this year could be better. Cato is simply awesome. In 2013 he threw for 3916 yds and 39 TD’s and in 2012 threw for 4201 yds and 37 TD’s. His leading receiver Tommy Shuler also returns.
Doc Holiday has been putting it together and this could be his shot at gaining some national attention along with Cato. Neither is a household name for sure but by season’s end they might be. They return 11 of their top 12 tacklers to top it all off. Despite playing only the 111[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest schedule in 2013 they rallied off of their loss to Rice to beat Maryland in their bowl game 31-20.
It is also worth mentioning that DC Chuck Heater made a big difference on the defensive side. He returns and his defense is loaded. They do not play Virginia Tech in 2014 and the 3 other teams they lost to on the road in 2013 will be home games in 2014. I look for Cato to close out his career with a bang and this should be a team to watch and could make the AP final top 25. Steele has them but he is saying the AP will not. We shall see. BOL
