My 2015 offseason thread

[DeadLast]

None of my business sir...do you live down in the Mobile, Alabama area?

You ain't no virgin...good stuff my friend even if we disagree.

I live in south bama ... but not near Mobile.

I don't think we disagree on who should cover. I'm just proceeding with more caution than you are. AU has some behind the scenes stuff going on I'm not comfortable with. If its worked out, Duke is reinstated, the team stays healthy and the players have good practices leading up to the game, I'll up my play on AU. If not, I'll keep the play small.

 

[russ1945]

DL: Keep in mind that Muschamp is taking over the Auburn defense. He may or may not be a miracle worker but he does have good athletes to work with. Interesting to watch his defense early on and see how much difference he makes.

 

[russ1945]

3 weeks from tomorrow night. The countdown is on. If you have some time you might go back in the thread. I posted some stats etc early on that might come in handy. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Watch Out for Counterfeit Notre Dame-Texas Tickets
The University has received a number of reports of counterfeit tickets to the home opener.

Aug. 18, 2015The University of Notre Dame athletics ticket office has received a number of reports and evidence of counterfeit tickets to the 2015 Irish football home opener Sept. 5 against the University of Texas. Associate athletics director Rob Kelly warns Irish fans to be extremely careful when they consider obtaining Notre Dame football tickets through non-University sources.
"It's not uncommon for us to see counterfeit tickets show up on game day each year," Kelly says. "But the reports we've seen this year are earlier and more frequent than usual.
"The only guaranteed source for Notre Dame football tickets is through the University of Notre Dame. We often tell our fans that if they buy tickets on the secondary market they assume all the risk. It is a sad situation when someone shows up on game day and can't get in, especially after paying secondary market prices."
Individuals suspecting they have counterfeit tickets in their possession should contact their local law enforcement agency to report details as soon as possible. The investigating law enforcement agency then can contact the Notre Dame Counterfeit Ticket Task Force via the Notre Dame Security Police for assistance by calling 574-631-5555 and asking for Capt. Rick Miller.
Clues to counterfeit tickets include fuzzy printing, rough cuts or perforations, mismatched fonts or the absence of a three-dimensional shamrock hologram with Fighting Irish leprechauns. Also, in a notable trend this year, Notre Dame football tickets printed on Ticketmaster stock are certainly counterfeit.
Contact the Notre Dame ticket office with any questions attickets@nd.edu, 574-631-7356 or visit www.und.com/tickets.

 

[russ1945]

The Updated Version: 20 Questions on Notre Dame Football for 2015
let’s consider 20 questions Irish fans (and maybe even Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly and his staff) will mull over

Head Coach Brian Kelly

Aug. 14, 2015The original version of this piece ran in January on UND.com. With recruiting, coaching staff changes, spring football drills and other personnel news affecting Notre Dame football fortunes as the 2015 season draws closer, we provide a second look at those same 20 questions--along with some answers.

Yes, the 2014 University of Notre Dame season ended just a few weeks ago, and it’s a long time until the Texas Longhorns arrive in South Bend in September. Recruiting and spring drills will tide Irish fans over until that Sept. 5, 2015, season opener at Notre Dame Stadium.

In the meantime, let’s consider 20 questions Irish fans (and maybe even Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly and his staff) will mull over in the offseason lull:

1. It came about due to late-season circumstances leading into a one-shot bowl effort, yet the notion of practicing and playing both quarterbacks Everett Golson and Malik Zaire essentially worked against LSU, a highly rated defensive team from the most highly regarded conference in the land. It’s safe to say both Golson and Zaire are capable of being full-time regulars at the position, even if their strong points differ slightly—and it’s impossible to know now if the idea of a two-headed “monster” at quarterback could really be effective on a long-term basis. There’s plenty of time for Kelly and his staff to let this play out through the spring and even into August, if that’s what they choose to do. So, what does the future hold at quarterback for Notre Dame? It’s safe to say Malik Zaire is what the future holds for the Irish. Both Zaire and Everett Golson went through all of spring drills together—then Golson announced in May his intention to transfer and he ultimately ended up at Florida State. So the Irish offensive coaches have put any plans for dual quarterbacks in mothballs and are now focused on what it takes to make Zaire a consistent, productive signal-caller for Notre Dame. With the potential drama of a Golson-Zaire debate now eliminated, all involved can concentrate on making Zaire a potent cog in the Irish offense. Even with only 35 pass attempts on his resume and the single start in the Music City Bowl win versus LSU, Zaire brings a flair and confidence to the huddle that should be a boon.

1. The Irish ran for 246 yards (their second-highest rushing total of 2014 and best since the season opener versus Rice) against LSU in the Music City Bowl, and that came with Mike McGlinchey making his first start at offensive tackle. Notre Dame returns a solid, proven tailback in Tarean Folston and a potential improving and talented sidekick in Greg Bryant—and the makings are there for an offensive line with productivity and experience. Can the Irish become a team in 2015 known for its smash-mouth running style? Naysayers will worry that the loss of Bryant makes this question more difficult to answer in the affirmative. But the emergence of C.J. Prosise during spring drills and the potential of receiver Justin Brent to try his hand as a running back in fall camp both provide intriguing options. While Notre Dame fans had been comfortable with all the depth at that tailback spot, it’s also possible that Folston could thrive if he’s rewarded with 22-25 carries a contest. No matter who lines up behind the quarterback, the Irish figure to put one of their more talented and potentially productive offensive lines on the field in years.

1. Even with Ronnie Stanley, Nick Martin, Steve Elmer and Mike McGlinchey back in the fold, there are a host of young Irish offensive linemen in the mix. Consider the likes of John Montelus, Colin McGovern, Quenton Nelson, Sam Mustipher, Jimmy Byrne, Hunter Bivinand Alex Bars—most all of them highly regarded when they showed up on campus. Can any of that group develop into a major contributor by the time the 2015 campaign unfolds? The Irish came out of spring drills feeling good about their entire second offensive line unit. There may not be an immediate need for any of those backups to play a major role right off the bat, but the Notre Dame coaches liked what they saw from those younger, less-experienced linemen.

1. It’s hard to imagine a Notre Dame position area that grew up more than the Irish receivers did in 2014. Will Fuller became a bona-fide star.Corey Robinson proved to be a matchup nightmare. Chris Brown emerged as a dependable, if under the radar, staple. C.J. Prosise showed he could both catch and run (see 50-yard touchdown on a jet sweep versus LSU, the longest run by an Irish receiver in two decades), as didAmir Carlisle. Now that Torii Hunter Jr. is healthy, expect him to be a force. And Folston has proven he can catch the ball out of the backfield. All those players return in 2015. What’s the next step for Notre Dame’s passing game? The best part about Notre Dame’s depth at receiver is that Malik Zaire can make use of all those different targets. As productive as Will Fuller was in 2014, for example, he doesn’t have to be the whole show. The arrow is pointing up for all those pass-catchers in terms of advancement, and there is a talented group of freshmen who also have a chance to have an impact at some point in 2015.

1. Anthony Fasano, John Carlson, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert and Troy Niklas—all those recent Irish tight ends now draw paychecks in the National Football League. Ben Koyack, who graduates this spring, should add his name to that list. That leaves a combination of Durham Smythe and Tyler Luatua, plus untested Mike Heuerman and Nic Weishar. Can a less-experienced-than-usual list of tight end candidates fill the bill for the Irish in 2015? Notre Dame can’t truly answer this question until games begin in 2015, and the tight end position still might qualify as the most legitimate offensive question mark heading into the fall. Incoming freshman Alize Jones may well inject himself into the mix, and Smythe, Luatua and Weishar could enjoy chances for much expanded roles.

1. Kyle Brindza leaves as the Notre Dame career leader in field goals (57) and he was no slouch as a punter the last two seasons either. Tyler Newsome will be the lone scholarship player for those spots during spring drills. So, what’s the future of the Irish special teams when it comes to punts, field goals and PATs? This is another area where 2015 game production will be the key, considering there’s no one around who has kicked or punted in a college game. A freshman, Justin Yoon, is the likely placekicker, while Newsome is expected to handle the punting chores.

1. The look and emphasis of the Notre Dame offense often have varied from week to week, depending on whether the Irish coaches believe heavier doses of throws or runs can be most effective against that week’s opponent. There’s plenty of raw material for the Irish to be more than competent in both areas by next fall. What will be the ultimate identity of the Notre Dame offensive unit in 2015? This remains to be seen. But Malik Zaire gives the Irish a variety of ways to hurt a defense, and he has lots of people to help him. Zaire and his offensive mates simply need to avoid the turnover bug that bit Notre Dame so hard the last month of the 2014 regular season. The victory over LSU in Nashville showed the Irish were capable of playing smash-mouth football against a quality opponent.

1. Two of the most impressive bowl victors in 2014 were #12 Georgia Tech (won 49-34 over #7 Mississippi State) and #17 Clemson (won 40-6 over Oklahoma)—and those just happen to be two of the first five Irish opponents on the 2015 schedule. The Georgia Tech game is Sept. 19at Notre Dame Stadium—and the Clemson contest is at Clemson Oct. 3 in Notre Dame’s first visit there since 1977. The Irish also play Atlantic Coast Conference opponents Virginia, Boston College (at Fenway Park in the Shamrock Series), Wake Forest and Pittsburgh. How will Notre Dame fare against its ACC foes in 2015? This marks the second year of the Irish scheduling relationship with the ACC (six games in 2015 after four a year ago), and without question the games against Clemson and Georgia Tech are two of the more intriguing matchups not just on Notre Dame’s schedule but among any intersectional dates in the country. It’s Notre Dame’s first trip in history to play football in Charlottesville and the first Irish visit to Clemson since the Joe Montana era. Plus, Notre Dame-Boston College, always an interesting matchup, takes on a different look at Fenway.

1. The very early preseason looks at the 2015 season listed the Irish 10[SUP]th[/SUP] (FOX), 12[SUP]th[/SUP] (ESPN.com) and 22nd (USA Today) in several of those polls. What are realistic expectations for Notre Dame in 2015? Again, only time will tell—but games against Texas, Georgia Tech and Clemson among the first five outings surely ought to offer some hints. Someone at Sports Illustrated thinks Irish fans will enjoy the fall, predicting Notre Dame will finish as one of four playoff teams.

1. Notre Dame played cleanly early in 2014, then suffered from all kinds of turnover woes late in the year. The Irish only won the turnover battle four times all year (they were plus-eight in that category after the first three games) and not once from the Sept. 13 Purdue game until a turnover-free effort in the Music City Bowl against LSU. Can the Irish return to their mistake-free form in 2015? The 2014 season appears to be an anomaly because Notre Dame has a history of being strong in the area of avoiding turnovers. The Irish running backs have been great at not losing fumbles in recent years. Still, you can’t just talk about protecting the football—you’ve got to do it.

1. First-year Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder’s scheme got off to a solid start, but injuries, attrition and youth caught up to the Irish late in the year. Notre Dame’s final scoring defense figure of 29.2 points ranked abnormally low. Can the Notre Dame defense, with a full year working under VanGorder, put things together on a more consistent basis this fall? That’s certainly the hope. The Irish have lots of experienced pieces. Now they just need them all to fit—and be productive. Staying healthy (compared to a year ago) would be nice, too.

1. Sophomore linebacker Jaylon Smith was the most decorated Irish player in 2014 as a second-team Associated Press All-American, and he’s arguably the most talented all-around athlete on the roster. Originally an outside linebacker, Smith was moved inside in 2014 after the graduation loss of Dan Fox and Carlo Calabrese combined with the Jarrett Grace injury issues. Wherever he plays in 2015, can Smith become the dominant defensive player on the field every Saturday? Absolutely. The combined presence of Joe Schmidt, Jarrett Grace andNyles Morgan inside may allow Smith to roam outside where he’s most dangerous. He can run with any linebacker in the country, and he likes to chase quarterbacks.

1. Inside linebacker Joe Schmidt, a walk-on not that long ago, became an amazingly important cog for the Notre Dame defense in 2014. He led the team in tackles and was a key spokesman for the Irish on and off the field until the Nov. 1 foot injury that ended his season. The Irish had their share of problems defending the run once he left the lineup (after limiting three of their first six opponents to 56 rushing yards or fewer), and his teammates recognized that by naming him the 2014 team MVP. Can Schmidt’s return in 2015, along with the experience gained this past year by talented rookie Nyles Morgan (and a potential return to good health by Jarrett Grace), put the Irish back on the road to prospering at linebacker? Yes (see #12 above, too). No longer a hidden gem, Schmidt helps glue all the pieces in their places—and Grace has moved past his health issues.

1. The Irish in 2014 looked at all kinds of options along the defensive line, and veteran tackle Justin Utupo is the only one who does not return for the 2015 campaign. With Sheldon Day, Jarron Jones, Romeo Okwara and Isaac Rochell all back to anchor that group, and if some of the many freshmen who debuted last year develop into major contributors, can Notre Dame’s defensive front this fall be one of the strong points of the depth chart? That’s the plan. The Irish don’t need anyone among that group to make every tackle. They just need the group to play solid, consistent, productive football and be effective stopping the run and keeping quarterbacks from becoming comfortable.

1. With Austin Collinsworth thwarted most of the year by injuries, Notre Dame’s secondary never looked like the Irish thought it would in 2014. This time around only Collinsworth and corner Cody Riggs will be missing. Four of the top six Irish tacklers in 2014 were Max Redfield (68), Elijah Shumate (66), Matthias Farley (53) and Cole Luke (48, plus 11 passes broken up), with all expected back this fall. So, are the pieces in places for the Irish defensive backs to shine in 2015? Like a handful of other position areas, the secondary has its share (maybe more) of familiar names on the depth chart—including potential all-star corner KeiVarae Russell, who did not play in 2014. Seldom these days do opponents show up without productive passing attacks, so competent coverage will be a requirement and will help define this group.

1. Tight end Ben Koyack, offensive tackle Christian Lombard, center Matt Hegarty and cornerback Cody Riggs qualify as the only graduating regulars who won’t be around in 2015. Will that level of experience put the Irish seriously into the playoff hunt next fall? Few teams in the country boast more returning starters for 2015 than the Irish. Whether or not Notre Dame can turn that into a big-time positive will determine the playoff aspect of that question.

1. Notre Dame has the potential for a record number of fifth-year players in 2015, pending the spring semester application and approval process through the Faculty Board on Athletics. Can that pay big dividends once the 2015 campaign begins? That list now officially includes Joe Schmidt, Nick Martin, Matthias Farley, Jarrett Grace, Chase Hounshell, Amir Carlisle, Connor Cavalaris, Nick Ossello(four-year lacrosse monogram winner) and graduate transfer Avery Sebastian. That’s a noteworthy list of names, many of whom already have been proven contributors.

1. When Notre Dame walked off the field last October in Tallahassee, despite the last-minute defeat, the Irish felt like they had showed they could play with anyone in the country considering their performance on the road against the defending national champions and, ultimately, a 2014 playoff team. What will it take for the Irish to play at that level on a regular basis? That game at Florida State set the performance standard for Notre Dame. Eliminate the turnovers and stay healthy, and the Irish will take their shots in 2015.

1. Notre Dame played in the national championship game in 2012 and now has won bowl games in consecutive years for the first time since the early 1990s. Can the Irish parlay that into headline news in 2015? It’s hard to talk to any of the Notre Dame veterans who aren’t excited about prospects for the season. Once September arrives it becomes a matter of being the best team on he field from one Saturday to the next.

1. Notre Dame’s 2015 schedule features five teams that won bowl games to finish 2014 (Georgia Tech, Clemson, Navy, USC and Stanford). Four of Notre Dame’s five defeats in 2014 came against teams that finished in the final Associated Press top 25 (#5 Florida State, #12 Arizona State, #20 USC and #24 Louisville)—and the 2015 schedule includes three teams that ended up in that same final AP poll (#8 Georgia Tech at 11-3, #15 Clemson at 10-3 and #20 USC at 9-4). How strongly will Notre Dame’s 2015 agenda ultimately rank? That’s impossible to predict. There are always a few teams that play better than expected and often a few that don’t measure up to expectations. But, given that the Irish can’t control that, the conversation becomes all about Notre Dame and how it performs.

 

[SundayTiger]

Arizona St vs Texas A&M (to be played in Houston)

Arizona St – HC Todd Graham enters his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] season at Arizona St where his record is 28-12. They went 10-3 including a bowl win over Duke 36-31. They return 16 starters in 2015. They do lose QB Taylor Kelly but leading rusher DJ Foster returns along with 8 of their 9 top receivers. They return 8 of their top 10 tacklers. They return 53 lettermen. Last year they ranked #16 in scoring offense and #74 in scoring defense (average ranking of 45).

Texas A&M – HC Kevin Sumlin enters his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] season with the Aggies who finished 8-5 in 2014. The new DC is John Chavis who has been coaching in the SEC since 1989 including the past 6 years at LSU and 20 years at Tennessee. He is as good as it gets and his impact should be immediate. He also kept all of the existing defensive assistants at A&M which I think is worth noting. They return 8 on offense including QB Kyle Allen, top RB Tra Carson, and top receiver Josh Reynolds. On defense they return 8 starters also including 10 of their top 13 tacklers but they do lose their top 3 in that category. They return 53 lettermen. Last year they ranked #26 in scoring offense and # 75 in scoring defense (average ranking of 50.5).

Matchup: It will be interesting to see if the addition of DC John Chavis has an immediate impact. LY A&M started off 5-0 so that means they went 3-5 from that point on. They did defeat W Vir in their bowl game. Their offense should come out firing but we shall see. Arizona St may miss QB Kelly who when healthy was well balanced play maker. Each team having 16 returning starters makes this match up very interesting. Chavis has the entire off season to prepare his game plan for this matchup. That may be a factor. However Graham’s coaching staff is pretty much in synch. This game could be an indicator of things to come for both teams. Whichever team comes out on top will start out on a high note. I think A&M is a team to watch this season but we shall see. Again I am interested in any input on this matchup. BOL

I'd like to add that this game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston, and will be a semi-home game for A&M. Also worth mentioning that A&M's QB position has not been decided. Kyle Allen is still in a camp battle against freshman Kyler Murray.

 

[russ1945]

I'd like to add that this game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston, and will be a semi-home game for A&M. Also worth mentioning that A&M's QB position has not been decided. Kyle Allen is still in a camp battle against freshman Kyler Murray.

Just being in Texas helps. If Murray beats out Allen that could be a plus.

 

[SundayTiger]

Just being in Texas helps. If Murray beats out Allen that could be a plus.

What do you make of the line movement? When they released the line way back in June, it was Texas A&M -6. Now you see -3 and even -2.5.

Usually sharp money gets in early to move these lines.

 

[russ1945]

What do you make of the line movement? When they released the line way back in June, it was Texas A&M -6. Now you see -3 and even -2.5.

Usually sharp money gets in early to move these lines.

Actually I bet them last week at -3 (-115) so you have to bet 115 to win a hundred etc. I am buying into Chavis who has had the entire off season to get ready for this game. Could go either way but the game is being played in Texas. Arizona St dropped their last 2 regular season road games but do return 16 starters as does A&M.
Murray is a major league baseball prospect who chose football over the ML baseball draft. Allen can play but if Murray is better than Allen that makes me like my bet even better. Chavis is not making major changes in the defense but will definitely refine it. This is a very important game for A&M. Both teams have easy games in weeks 2 & 3 so they will both let her fly. This is the toughest opener A St has played in quite some time and also the first road opener they have played in quite some time. That could be a factor also.

 

[GoSooners]

It's hard for me to get a feel for the A$M game. I think there are much better games out there to bet. Maybe not to watch though. It should be a good one. First one to 50 wins.

 

[russ1945]

Well what will you be doing at this time of the day two weeks from today lol. Checking the lines. Checking the weather. Indeed.

I have 3 TV's in my TV room and on opening week especially I flip around and watch parts of as many games as I can. Seeing is believing in my book and all this preseason prediction stuff can either come to fruition or not. But observing as many teams as you can and as soon as you can does help big time. Some of the big boys have give me's on week one but you can still learn some things by watching things like special teams and judging a teams depth. Some teams have bigger games on week two than they do on week 2. Teams like that may try to get as many players into action as they can. They may stick to basics and not reveal their big play potentials. But regardless it is time to check for injuries and suspensions. You might want to go back in this thread and check out the coaching chart just for a refresher. You can see how well the new coaches are doing on week one including asst coaches. You can learn a lot by observation. You can record certain games and watch them later on. Bottom line is that the first three weeks are open to scrutiny and the more you dissect where teams are at that point of the season may affect where they may be headed. BOL

 

[russ1945]

I thought I would compare the AP Preseason Top 25 to Phil Steele’s choices.

AP TOP 25/ Phil Steele’s TOP 25
1. Ohio St 1. Ohio St
2. Oregon 2. TCU
3. TCU 3. USC
4. Alabama 4. Alabama
5. Michigan St 5. Baylor
6. Florida St 6. Georgia
7. Baylor 7. Stanford
8. Georgia Tech 8. Florida St
9. Georgia 9. Michigan St
10. UCLA 10. LSU
11. Mississippi St 11. Oregon
12. Arizona St 12. Notre Dame
13. Wisconsin 13. Wisconsin
14. Missouri 14. Auburn
15. Clemson 15. UCLA
16. Boise St 16. Virginia Tech
17. Ole Miss 17. Clemson
18. Kansas St 18. Oklahoma
19. Arizona 19. Penn St
20. USC 20. Ole Miss
21. Utah 21. Miami Fl
22. Auburn 22. Arkansas
23. Marshall 23. Boise St
24. Louisville 24. Missouri
25. Memphis 25. Tennessee

So the AP has 9 teams in their Top 25 that Steele does not:
Georgia Tech, Miss St, Arizona St, Kansas St, Arizona, Utah, Marshall, Louisville, and Memphis
And Steele had 9 teams in their Top 25 that the AP does not:

……………………………………………………..
Every season I point out that as many as 9 teams from the AP Preseason top 25 do not make it to the final rankings. In 2014 the AP picked the following teams in their preseason top 25 that did not make the final AP top 25 rankings, here they are with their AP Preseason ranking: Oklahoma #4, S. Carolina #9, Stanford #11, LSU #13, N. Dame #17, Texas A&M #21, Nebraska #22, N. Carolina #23, and Washington #25. Those teams were replaced be the following teams, here they are with their AP Final Ranking: TCU #3, Baylor #7, Georgia Tech #8, Miss State #11, Boise St #21, Arizona #20, Utah #21, Marshall #23, Louisville #24, and Memphis #25.
…………………………………………………………
So you would think Steele would do better than the AP. Wrong. Steele also had 9 teams from his Preseason top 25 not make it to the final rankings. Here they are with the preseason ranking: Oklahoma #4, S. Carolina #10, LSU #15, Notre Dame #17, N. Carolina #18, Stanford #20, UCF #21, Florida #24, and Texas #25. Those teams were replaced by the following teams, here they are with the AP final rankings: Georgia Tech #8, Miss St #11, Arizona St #12, Missouri #14, Kansas St #18, Arizona #19, Utah #21, Louisville #24 (he did have them #26) and Memphis #25.
………………………………………………………..
So there you have it. Preseason polls need to be scrutinized big time. Time after time 9 or so teams do not survive the preseason poll and maintain their top 25 rankings until the final poll. Here are a few interesting adds:
Steele had Georgia Tech ranked #53, Arizona #48, Kansas St #42, and Missouri #41 in his preseason magazine. Utah was not in his top 50. I am not putting down Steele by any means but facts are facts. In fact, I think Steele is very good in his overall analysis which he does on each and every team. But there are many factors that come into play once the season begins. We are all interested in ATS but if you can pick out the 9 or so teams who might most like fall from the preseason top 25 teams you can do very well betting against them. By the same token if you can focus on the teams who would replace them you would do very well betting on those teams. I have followed this for several seasons now and it is worth the effort believe me. BOL

 

[russ1945]

^^^^^^^^Note: all the info in post 192 deal with the 2014 preseason rankings. I do this as the season approaches every new season. And always keep in mind that lines can get inflated on ranked teams.

 

[russ1945]

It would be interesting to see what teams some of you think won't survive the preseason top 25 and what teams that are not ranked in the preseason polls might make it to the final top 25. I am watching Texas A&M, Michigan, N. Carolina, Stanford, Arizona, Louisville and Minnesota.

 

[GoSooners]

I believe Mizzou, Wisconsin, Miss St, KSU and Oregon are a little overrated and some of these teams will fall out of the top 25. I also think these teams will do poorly ATS. Although you never can say 100% with KSU since they are so well coached. But they lose a lot of bigtime offensive production this year. And as with Snyder's teams of the past, they have struggled when they've had to break in a new QB. I think Arizona could struggle too, just by the fact that everybody surrounding them in their division will be improved this year. It doesn't mean I wouldn't bet on them against some of their OOC opponents. I just don't care for them much when they go into conference play. Teams that I think could be a little underrated and could crack the top 25 this year are Pitt, Minnesota, UNC. Kentucky looks like they could be a very good ATS team this year. In fact it's very possible they could start the season 4-1. If I had to name the most overrated team this year I would probably go with Wisconsin. For numerous reasons I won't go into here. Let's just say they are very lucky they are in the Big 10 West and only have to face Maryland and Rutgers from the East. They look to have much less talent to work with this year than in years past.

 

[russ1945]

Did not post right the first time and left out the 9 teams that Steele has that AP does not:

I thought I would compare the AP Preseason Top 25 to Phil Steele’s choices.
AP TOP 25 / Phil Steele’s TOP 25 (2015)
1. Ohio St 1. Ohio St
2. Oregon 2. TCU
3. TCU 3. USC
4. Alabama 4. Alabama
5. Michigan St 5. Baylor
6. Florida St 6. Georgia
7. Baylor 7. Stanford
8. Georgia Tech 8. Florida St
9. Georgia 9. Michigan St
10. UCLA 10. LSU
11. Mississippi St 11. Oregon
12. Arizona St 12. Notre Dame
13. Wisconsin 13. Wisconsin
14. Missouri 14. Auburn
15. Clemson 15. UCLA
16. Boise St 16. Virginia Tech
17. Ole Miss 17. Clemson
18. Kansas St 18. Oklahoma
19. Arizona 19. Penn St
20. USC 20. Ole Miss
21. Utah 21. Miami Fl
22. Auburn 22. Arkansas
23. Marshall 23. Boise St
24. Louisville 24. Missouri
25. Memphis 25. Tennessee

So the AP has 9 teams in their Top 25 that Steele does not:
Georgia Tech, Miss St, Arizona St, Kansas St, Arizona, Utah, Marshall, Louisville, and Memphis
And Steele has 9 teams in their Top 25 that the AP does not:
Stanford, LSU, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Penn St, Miami Fl, Arkansas and Tennessee. So both polls have 16 teams in common.

……………………………………………………..
Every season I point out that as many as 9 teams from the AP Preseason top 25 do not make it to the final rankings. In 2014 the AP picked the following teams in their preseason top 25 that did not make the final AP top 25 rankings, here they are with their AP Preseason ranking: Oklahoma #4, S. Carolina #9, Stanford #11, LSU #13, N. Dame #17, Texas A&M #21, Nebraska #22, N. Carolina #23, and Washington #25. Those teams were replaced be the following teams, here they are with their AP Final Ranking: TCU #3, Baylor #7, Georgia Tech #8, Miss State #11, Boise St #21, Arizona #20, Utah #21, Marshall #23, Louisville #24, and Memphis #25.
…………………………………………………………
So you would think would do better than the AP. Wrong. Steele also had 9 teams from his Preseason top 25 not make it to the final rankings. Here they are with the preseason ranking: Oklahoma #4, S. Carolina #10, LSU #15, Notre Dame #17, N. Carolina #18, Stanford #20, UCF #21, Florida #24, and Texas #25. Those teams were replaced by the following teams, here they are with the AP final rankings: Georgia Tech #8, Miss St #11, Arizona St #12, Missouri #14, Kansas St #18, Arizona #19, Utah #21, Louisville #24 (he did have them #26) and Memphis #25.
………………………………………………………..
So there you have it. Preseason polls need to be scrutinized big time. Time after time 9 or so teams do not survive the preseason poll and maintain their top 25 rankings until the final poll. Here are a few interesting adds:
Steele had Georgia Tech ranked #53, Arizona #48, Kansas St #42, and Missouri #41 in his preseason magazine. I am not putting down Steele by any means but facts are facts. In fact, I think Steele is very good in his overall analysis which he does on each and every team. But there are many factors that come into play once the season begins. We are all interested in ATS but if you can pick out the 9 or so teams who might most like fall from the preseason top 25 teams you can do very well betting against them. By the same token if you can focus on the teams who would replace them you would do very well betting on those teams. I have followed this for several seasons now and it is worth the effort believe me. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Did not post right the first time and left out the 9 teams that Steele has that AP does not:

I thought I would compare the AP Preseason Top 25 to Phil Steele’s choices.
AP TOP 25 / Phil Steele’s TOP 25
1. Ohio St 1. Ohio St
2. Oregon 2. TCU
3. TCU 3. USC
4. Alabama 4. Alabama
5. Michigan St 5. Baylor
6. Florida St 6. Georgia
7. Baylor 7. Stanford
8. Georgia Tech 8. Florida St
9. Georgia 9. Michigan St
10. UCLA 10. LSU
11. Mississippi St 11. Oregon
12. Arizona St 12. Notre Dame
13. Wisconsin 13. Wisconsin
14. Missouri 14. Auburn
15. Clemson 15. UCLA
16. Boise St 16. Virginia Tech
17. Ole Miss 17. Clemson
18. Kansas St 18. Oklahoma
19. Arizona 19. Penn St
20. USC 20. Ole Miss
21. Utah 21. Miami Fl
22. Auburn 22. Arkansas
23. Marshall 23. Boise St
24. Louisville 24. Missouri
25. Memphis 25. Tennessee

So the AP has 9 teams in their Top 25 that Steele does not:
Georgia Tech, Miss St, Arizona St, Kansas St, Arizona, Utah, Marshall, Louisville, and Memphis
And Steele has 9 teams in their Top 25 that the AP does not: Stanford, LSU, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Penn St, Miami Fl, Arkansas and Tennessee

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Every season I point out that as many as 9 teams from the AP Preseason top 25 do not make it to the final rankings. In 2014 the AP picked the following teams in their preseason top 25 that did not make the final AP top 25 rankings, here they are with their AP Preseason ranking: Oklahoma #4, S. Carolina #9, Stanford #11, LSU #13, N. Dame #17, Texas A&M #21, Nebraska #22, N. Carolina #23, and Washington #25. Those teams were replaced be the following teams, here they are with their AP Final Ranking: TCU #3, Baylor #7, Georgia Tech #8, Miss State #11, Boise St #21, Arizona #20, Utah #21, Marshall #23, Louisville #24, and Memphis #25.
…………………………………………………………
So you would think would do better than the AP. Wrong. Steele also had 9 teams from his Preseason top 25 not make it to the final rankings. Here they are with the preseason ranking: Oklahoma #4, S. Carolina #10, LSU #15, Notre Dame #17, N. Carolina #18, Stanford #20, UCF #21, Florida #24, and Texas #25. Those teams were replaced by the following teams, here they are with the AP final rankings: Georgia Tech #8, Miss St #11, Arizona St #12, Missouri #14, Kansas St #18, Arizona #19, Utah #21, Louisville #24 (he did have them #26) and Memphis #25.
………………………………………………………..
So there you have it. Preseason polls need to be scrutinized big time. Time after time 9 or so teams do not survive the preseason poll and maintain their top 25 rankings until the final poll. Here are a few interesting adds:
Steele had Georgia Tech ranked #53, Arizona #48, Kansas St #42, and Missouri #41 in his preseason magazine. I am not putting down Steele by any means but facts are facts. In fact, I think Steele is very good in his overall analysis which he does on each and every team. But there are many factors that come into play once the season begins. We are all interested in ATS but if you can pick out the 9 or so teams who might most like fall from the preseason top 25 teams you can do very well betting against them. By the same token if you can focus on the teams who would replace them you would do very well betting on those teams. I have followed this for several seasons now and it is worth the effort believe me. BOL

 

[tmader7]

AP doesn't have the Sooners in their preseason. Normally, I'd just shake my head a few times. Now, I'm gonna laugh like hell, LOLOLOLOLOL. I've stated this before in GS' thread, the Sooners will run night and day over everyone this year, sit back, watch, and learn if you don't already know.

~T~

 

[russ1945]

AP doesn't have the Sooners in their preseason. Normally, I'd just shake my head a few times. Now, I'm gonna laugh like hell, LOLOLOLOLOL. I've stated this before in GS' thread, the Sooners will run night and day over everyone this year, sit back, watch, and learn if you don't already know.

~T~

My thread on OU expresses the same things. They are vastly underrated and very talented and deep. Last time OU won the NC they were #19 in the preseason poll.

 

[GoSooners]

AP doesn't have the Sooners in their preseason. Normally, I'd just shake my head a few times. Now, I'm gonna laugh like hell, LOLOLOLOLOL. I've stated this before in GS' thread, the Sooners will run night and day over everyone this year, sit back, watch, and learn if you don't already know.

~T~

OU will be able to run night and day, but they still have Mike Stoops. You better hope he's "relearned" how to coach defense...