My 2015 offseason thread

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from philsteele.com:

Here is a quick chart showing the chances of a team winning outright depending on where Las Vegas sets the line.

1997-2014
Favorite of
# of Games
Lost Outright
%
31.5 or more pts
783​
7​
0.89%​
24.5-31
942​
36​
3.82%​
17.5-24
1620​
105​
6.48%​
14.5-17
1049​
134​
12.77%​
10.5-14
1745​
364​
20.86%​
7.5-10
1657​
434​
26.19%​
3.5-7
3044​
1069​
35.11%​
3 or less
2020​
947​
46.88%​
Finally, among the media and fans, there is a popular perception that parity is rampant in college football compared to years past, which has led to a rash of wild upsets. To test this narrative, I have compiled a chart of data from the last 6 years as opposed to the last 18 years in our main chart. As indicated below, there have actually been fewer upsets in the last 6 years than in the last 18 years, which means that upsets have been declining slightly. You can see that the discrepancies are not major and I am not calling this a trend, but merely pointing out that there is no evidence of rising upsets in college football in the past few years.

2009-2014
Favorite of
# of Games
Lost Outright
%
% of Change
31.5 or more pts
411​
2​
0.49%​
-0.40%​
24.5-31
355​
13​
3.66%​
-0.15%​
17.5-24
607​
35​
5.76%​
-0.72%​
14.5-17
399​
46​
11.52%​
-1.25%​
10.5-14
600​
123​
20.50%​
-0.36%​
7.5-10
601​
158​
26.28%​
0.09%​
3.5-7
1113​
410​
36.83%​
1.72%​
3 or less
745​
322​
43.22%​
-3.66%​
 

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Power ratings vary from source to source and the scales are often relative but the numbers can vary. One thing that does not vary is when a does their power ratings and rate the teams from #1 to #120 (the lower the number the higher the rating).

I just got through comparing those ratings between phil steele’s and against the numbers. Really kind of interesting.

Team - Steele - ATN
USC - 4 - 19
Florida - 40 - 21
BYU - 44 - 24
S Carolina - 56 - 31
Okie St - 23 - 38
Texas - 28 - 40
Penn St - 26 - 42
Miami Fl - 25 - 51
California - 36 - 52
Minnesota - 39 - 58
Colorado - 46 - 71
Toledo - 63 - 86
Vandy - 64 - 91
Illinois - 62 - 97
Ohio - 81 - 104
Fresno St - 89 - 105

Interesting to see who is right and who is wrong but definitely food for thought.
 

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^^^^had trouble post that. Actually there are 128 teams this year. The differences in their ratings is pretty significant though. Remember power rankings are there for comparative purposes and the actual power ranking which for instance for Ohio St, which is #1 in both polls are: Steele has them with a power ranking of 128.83 (his highest ranking) while Against the Numbers has them with a power ranking of 99 (their highest ranking).
 

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I was looking through the North Coast Summer Football Guide and focused in on the Power Plays game by game estimated lines for the upcoming season. They list every game. Here is some of what caught my eye.

Florida St, Georgia, and TCU will be favored in every game. Ohio St also but they will be double digit favorites in every game according to their estimates.

Alabama will be favored in every game except at Georgia (+2)
Baylor will be favored in every game except at TCU (+7)
Clemson be favored in every game except at Florida St (+5) & their game with G Tech is shown at Even
Georgia Tech will be favored in every game except at Fl St (+2), Georgia (+1), and Even against N Dame and Clemson
Marshall will be favored in every game except for WKU which is shown as Even
Stanford will be favored in all games except USC (+4) and Even with Oregon
UCLA will be favored in all but two games – At Stan (+6) and at USC (+7)
USC will be favored in every game except at Oregon (+5)
Wisconsin will be favored in every game except against Alabama (+8) and they DNP Ohio St
 

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Here is some more:

Boise St is favored in every game this season
Cal will be dogs in 9 games this season
Arkansas will be dogs in 4 games at Tenn, at Alabama, at LSU, and at Ole Miss
Florida will be dogs in 7 games this season
Ole Miss will be dogs at Ala (+9) and at Aub (+3)
Mich St will be dogs against Ore (+1) and at Ohio ST (+14)
N Dame will be dogs at Clem (+2), USC (+4) at Stnford (+8) and Even against G Tech
Oklahoma will be dogs at Tenn, K St, Baylor, TCU, and Okie St
Virginia Tech will start the season as a dog against Ohio St (+15) in their opener and at G Tech (+8) on Nov12 (this team could be a sleeper)

Texas could start out badly – In their first 6 games they are dogs against N Dame, TCU, and Oklahoma. They are slight favorites over Okie St (-1), and (-9) at home against an improved Cal team. Worst case scenario is they could start the season at 1-5. If that were to happen it could get ugly in Austin. Even 2-4 would suck.
 

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Good info Russ. Funny now FSU is "in a rebuilding year", yet they are favored in every game.
 

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Good info Russ. Funny now FSU is "in a rebuilding year", yet they are favored in every game.

Well some of these lines have already changed but this is a good guage. FSU's off field problems could have an affect. I think Arkansas and Oklahoma will do better than these lines indicate. Ohio St being double digit favorites in every game is pretty impressive.
 

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You can refer to my coaching update beginning of post #127:

Establishing football programs is the name of the game. If a program is thinking long term then finding a HC who pull is all together in a relatively short period of time is the key. That HC’s ability to pick his asst coaches, especially his OC and DC, is right up there. Once players learn a system that is basically consistent although occasionally fine tuned to fit personnel then they begin to believe in that system that works on both sides of the ball.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Offensively you have to have a QB who fits and understands the system and an OC who utilizes his players to the max. Programs who maintain the same HC, OC, and DC for a longer period have a distinct advantage over HC’s establishing a new program. Another obstacle for a HC is that if his OC and or DC are successful other schools recruit them and sometimes to evolve into a HC. Let’s take a look at a few programs who have a seasoned group of coaches and see how they have done.
........................................................................................................................................
Look at Minnesota for instance. Jerry Kill is in his 5[SUP]th[/SUP] season with the Gophers. He has battled health problems during that same period. Yet his OC, Matt Linegrover, has been Kill’s OC for the past 16 years and his DC, Tracy Claeys, has been Kill’s DC for the past 14 years. These guys are a team in and of themselves. Together they have taken the Gophers from 3-9 in ’11, to 6-7 in ’12, to 8-5 the past 2 seasons. They have made it to bowls in each of the past 3 seasons.
At one point in ’13 the Gophers won 4 straight conference games and have beaten both NW and Nebraska in each of the past 2 seasons. They return only 12 starters in ’15 so we shall see just how their coaching cohesiveness pays of in 2015.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Frank Solich went from Nebraska to Ohio which could be seen as a drop in class. Regardless, going into his 11[SUP]th[/SUP] season with the Bobcats Solich has gotten them to a .500 season last year after getting to 5 consecutive bowls. Again his OC, Tim Albin, and his DC, Jimmy Burrow, have been with him though his whole tenure at Ohio. This year they return 10 on offense and 8 on defense and in all have 50 returning lettermen. Steele points out that in the past 6 years the Bobcats have returned 12, 12, 11, 13, 12, and 12 starters. So this could be a season where the coaching experience and a steady program with the most experienced team they have coached recently could be a surprise team. We shall see and keep in mind that while at Nebraska that Solich averaged 10 wins a season. I can see Solich leading this team. They play Kentrucky and Marshall back to back in weeks 2 and 3. After that they put it all together and again coaching would be the key.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Rich Rodriguez is going into his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] season at Arizona. His Co-OC’s, Calvin McGee and Rod Smith, go back further as does his DC Jeff Casteel. These guys are all on the same page. In ’11 the Wildcats went 8-5 following a 4-8 season the season prior to Rod’s arrival. They went 8-5 in ’12 and ’13 and ’14 went 10-4. Rod gets a lot of the credit but a lot of that credit goes to the fact that his asst coaches are a part of his package. This season the Bobcats return only 7 on offense and 6 on defense. However, they do return their leading rusher and leading passer and a total of 44 lettermen. Their first 3 games are relatively easy so going into game 4 against Cal at home they could be starting to gel. Again, if coaching is all that then these guys are a team to watch.
...................................................................................................................................

Hugh Freeze is entering his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] season at Ole Miss as are his Co-OC’s, Matt Luke and Dan Werner, and his DC, Dave Womack. These guys came to Oxford following the Rebels finishing 2-10 in ’11. They have since gone 7-6. 8-5, and 9-4. So these guys made the jump to the SEC with a lot of success. This season they return 9 on offense and 7 on defense and a total of 58 returning lettermen. They do lose QB Bo Wallace who although had a good career is probably replaceable. Last year they face Steele’s 4[SUP]th[/SUP] toughest schedule and countered with their best season under Freeze who is a Mississippi native. This year they face Steele’s #29 toughest schedule. A lot will ride on developing a QB but they do return their top 2 RB’s so that helps. I think that this is another situation where a group of coaches can make a difference.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
There are a few other coaching situations worth mentioning:

Virginia Tech – HC Frank Beamer and DC Bud Foster have been together of 21 years.
Navy – JC Ken Niumatalolo, OC Ivin Jasper and DC Buddy Green have been together for 8 yrs
Northwestern – HC Pat Fitzgeald is entering his 10[SUP]th[/SUP] year and his OC, Mick McCall and OC Mike Hankwitz have been with him the past 8 years
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Some first year OC’s and DC’s who could have an immediate impact are:

Oklahoma – OC/Lincoln Riley (E Carolina)
Notre Dame – OC Mike Sanford (Boise St)
Utah – DC John Pease (coming out of retirement)
UCLA – DC Tom Bradley (Penn St DC for his last 12 seasons there)
Georgia – OC Brian Schottenheimer (NFL)
Texas A&M – DC John Chavis (formerly with LSU & Tenn – in SEC since ‘89
Auburn – DC Will Muschamp (Florida – Texas)
Arkansas – OC Dan Enos (former QB at Mich St – HC at C Mich)

BOL
 

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Well some of these lines have already changed but this is a good guage. FSU's off field problems could have an affect. I think Arkansas and Oklahoma will do better than these lines indicate. Ohio St being double digit favorites in every game is pretty impressive.
OU was double digit favorites in every game last year, and we saw how that story ended. I think tOSU will be severely tested right out of the gate. For those of you who got that early +17.5 Va Tech line, congratulations, you may already be a winner! I think Va Tech could be a very undervalued team this year... Their defense should be very good. And any improvement at all out of Brewer and they'll be covering a lot of spreads...
 

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OU was double digit favorites in every game last year, and we saw how that story ended. I think tOSU will be severely tested right out of the gate. For those of you who got that early +17.5 Va Tech line, congratulations, you may already be a winner! I think Va Tech could be a very undervalued team this year... Their defense should be very good. And any improvement at all out of Brewer and they'll be covering a lot of spreads...

Could be a circle game for TOSU. I can see V Tech hanging in there easily. They are #20 on Steele's Power Poll.
 

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I've been hearing some rumors flying around that Mike Stoops being up in the press box isn't a done deal, and that he might be coaching from the sidelines this season. That will be bad news if it happens. I'm far from convinced anyway that Stoops has figured out these Big 12 offenses. Especially Baylor. I think he's completely lost with that team because they present such a tough match up problem with their skill players. The bottom line is these Big 12 offenses are much different than when he coached in the early 2000's. And I don't think he's solved that problem. He continues to get out game planned by superior offensive coordinators. I think they will get handled yet again in Waco if something doesn't drastically change. The question is does Bob fire him or does he keep him on and Bob take over half of the defensive duties? Many questions will be answered this year. But I have a sneaking suspicion that OU's offense will have to outscore most of their Big 12 opponents to win. I hope I'm wrong...
 

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I've been hearing some rumors flying around that Mike Stoops being up in the press box isn't a done deal, and that he might be coaching from the sidelines this season. That will be bad news if it happens. I'm far from convinced anyway that Stoops has figured out these Big 12 offenses. Especially Baylor. I think he's completely lost with that team because they present such a tough match up problem with their skill players. The bottom line is these Big 12 offenses are much different than when he coached in the early 2000's. And I don't think he's solved that problem. He continues to get out game planned by superior offensive coordinators. I think they will get handled yet again in Waco if something doesn't drastically change. The question is does Bob fire him or does he keep him on and Bob take over half of the defensive duties? Many questions will be answered this year. But I have a sneaking suspicion that OU's offense will have to outscore most of their Big 12 opponents to win. I hope I'm wrong...


I guess we are on opposite sides about OU. I have given this a lot of thought and I love the fact that so many Sooner fans are down on the Stoop's bros etc. I very seldom go out on a limb with OU but the pieces are there if they put them together. If you analyze last season as I did it becomes obvious that a few bad decisions determined 3 losses by a total of 8 points. Remember Baylor's new OC is the HC's son and it is his first year calling plays. I also think OU's defense will put more pressure on passers and take pressure off of the DB's. Although Mike Stoops is still on the payroll I do not think he will make all the calls this year. You have given up on two guys from Youngstown who have still got it in them. Those new asst coaches have got the players pumped and they will play a big roll this year. Simply put, not that hard to turn around 3 losses by a total of 8 points in light of all the mistakes made by the coaching staff last year. Not that hard to turn that around. You are down on Mike Stoops. I remember when you were down on Brent Venables and he kicked our ass in that last bowl game. Of course I could be wrong but it will not take as much to turn this season around as most people think.
 

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Winning Streaks coming into 2015

Alabama – won their last 8 regular season games before losing to Ohio St in post season

Ohio St – won their last 11 regular season games and then beat Ohio St in the post season

Baylor – won their last 5 regular season games and lost in the post season

Florida St – Won 13 in a row in the regular season before losing in the post season

BYU – won their last 4 regular season games and lost in the post season

Cinn – won their last 7 regular season games and lost in the post season

UCF – won their last 4 regular season games and lost in the post season

Boise St – won their last 8 regular season games and won again in the post season

N. Illinois – won their last 7 regular season games and lost in the post season

WKU – won their last 4 regular season games and won again in the post season

App State – won their last 6 regular season games – did not participate in the post season
 

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I guess we are on opposite sides about OU. I have given this a lot of thought and I love the fact that so many Sooner fans are down on the Stoop's bros etc. I very seldom go out on a limb with OU but the pieces are there if they put them together. If you analyze last season as I did it becomes obvious that a few bad decisions determined 3 losses by a total of 8 points. Remember Baylor's new OC is the HC's son and it is his first year calling plays. I also think OU's defense will put more pressure on passers and take pressure off of the DB's. Although Mike Stoops is still on the payroll I do not think he will make all the calls this year. You have given up on two guys from Youngstown who have still got it in them. Those new asst coaches have got the players pumped and they will play a big roll this year. Simply put, not that hard to turn around 3 losses by a total of 8 points in light of all the mistakes made by the coaching staff last year. Not that hard to turn that around. You are down on Mike Stoops. I remember when you were down on Brent Venables and he kicked our ass in that last bowl game. Of course I could be wrong but it will not take as much to turn this season around as most people think.
The fact that Venables performed poorly in his last couple years at OU and almost immediately made a splash at Clemson should bring up red flags that things are not all right in Norman. Like I said, I hope your right about Mike Stoops and his last 3 years have just been "off" years and he's now got everything figured out. But for now I'm going to hold off bragging about the defense and hope the offense is everything OU fans hope it will be...
 

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The fact that Venables performed poorly in his last couple years at OU and almost immediately made a splash at Clemson should bring up red flags that things are not all right in Norman. Like I said, I hope your right about Mike Stoops and his last 3 years have just been "off" years and he's now got everything figured out. But for now I'm going to hold off bragging about the defense and hope the offense is everything OU fans hope it will be...

I forgot to mention I was down on Venables also lol
 

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Here are some teams who ended the season on losing streaks:

Georgia St lost their last 11 regular season games

New Mexico St lost their last 10 regular season games

Colorado lost their last 8 regular season games

The following teams lost their last 6 regular season games:
Kentucky (who started out the season 5-1), Purdue, Iowa St, San Jose St, UNLV, and E Mich

The following teams lost their last 5 regular season games:
Syracuse and FAU

Oklahoma State lost 5 in a row before winning their regular season finale against Oklahoma
 

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My top 10 games for week 1

Michigan vs Utah
TCU vs Mnnesota
BYU vs Minnesota
Arizona St vs Texas A&M
Texas vs Notre Dame
Wisconsin vs Alabama
North Carolina vs South Carolina
Washington vs Boise St
Stanford vs Northwetern
Louisville vs Auburn

I will start analyzing these matchups next week
 

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Michigan at Utah

These two teams met last season with Utah prevailing on the road 26-10. The game had a long lightning delay of 2 hours and 24 minutes in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter with 7:51 remaining. Nobody scored following the delay. Michigan’s only TD came on a 7 yd int return. Michigan had 4 TO’s and Utah just that one.

Michigan – New HC Jim Harbaugh takes over a team that has gone thru 3 HC’s in 6 years. They went 5-7 in 2014 and return 15 starters. Michigan should have no problem replacing QB Gardner with Iowa transfer Jake Rudock and they return their top 3 rushers and return 6 of their top 8 receivers. They return 6 of their top ten tacklers. They return 50 lettermen. Last year they were ranked #109 in scoring offense and #27 in scoring defense ( average ranking of 68).

Michigan is lucky to have Harbaugh and his impact on the team could be immediate. The new DC is D J Durkin who comes over from Florida and the new OC is Tim Drevno who has a long history with Harbaugh and was the running game coordinator at USC last season.

Utah – HC Kyle Whittingham is entering his 11[SUP]th[/SUP] year with the Utes. Last season they went 9-4 and that included wins over UCLA, USC, and Stanford. They return 14 starters. QB Kendal Thompson got a lot of action last season as a back up to Travis Wilson who departs. They return their top 7 RB’s and lost their #1, #3, #4 receivers. They return 8 of their top 11 tacklers. They return 61 lettermen. Last year they were ranked #49 in scoring offense and #42 in scoring defense (average ranking of 45.5)
Whittingham’s record at Utah is 84-43.

Matchup: Phil Steele thinks this is Utah’s best team since joining the Pac 12 for whatever that is worth. They do have the home field advantage this season and last year’s road victory in Ann Arbor is a positive. They lost to Washington St 27-28 in week 4 last year or they would have started the season off with at 7-0. If Steele is right and this is at least a better team than last year’s they will be more than a handful for the Woverines in Salt Lake City. On the other hand who knows what to expect from Michigan with Harbaugh’s new system and changes. Right now Utah is favored by 5 or 6 points and it will be interesting to watch this line up until game time. Last year Utah won and lost some close games. They won by 2, 6, 3, 3, & 4, and lost by 1,3 in the close games. So 7 of their 12 regular season games were decided by 6 or less points. Could this be another close one?

I am not picking games yet but I am throwing out write ups just as general information and at the same time looking for input. The countdown is on guys. BOL
 

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Last year TCU hosted Minnesota and won 30-7. TCU forced 5 TO’s and held Minnesota to 99 yds rushing (they averaged 233 ypg). TCU QB Trevone Boykin passed for 258 yes and rushed for 92 yds.

TCU – HC Gary Patterson is in his 15[SUP]th[/SUP] season with the Horned Frogs and his record coming into the season is 132-45. 12-1 season losing only Baylor. They lost DC Dick Bumpas but promoted co-DC’s from within the program. They return 10 on offense including Boykin and 5 on defense. They return 5 of their top 6 rushers and 8 out of 10 of their top receivers including their top 3. They lose 6 of their top 7 tacklers. They return 62 lettermen. Last year they were ranked #2 in scoring offense and #8 in scoring defense (average ranking of 5).

Minnesota – HC Jerry Kill has fought health problems all through his career. He enters his 5[SUP]th[/SUP] season with the Gophers with a record of 25-26. His coaching staff has been together for over a decade. His team comes off of an 8-5 record in 2014. They return 5 on offense and 7 on defense. QB Mitch Leidner returns as do 5 of their top 6 rushers (they do lose their #1 rusher from last year), and return 1 of their top receivers. They lose their top tackler but return 6 of their ten top tacklers. They return 48 lettermen. Their biggest win in 2014 was at Nebraska 28-24.

Matchup: This is a tough one for Minnesota coming out of the gate against one of the most well balanced teams in 2014. Even though the Horned Frogs lose 6 starters on defense their offense should dominate in this fray. The current line has TCU favored by 2 TD’s. The only good thing is that Minn has the home field advantage. In 2014 the Gophers were 6-1 at home losing only to Ohio St 23-31.

Again, no picks yet and I am open to input to get opinions on the outcome. BOL
 

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BYU at Nebraska

BYU – HC Bronco Mendenhall enters his 11[SUP]th[/SUP] season at BYU with a record of 90-39. Last year the Cougars went 8-5. They started the season with 4 wins including at Texas. They then lost 4 in a row then won 4 in a row to finish the regular season. They lost their bowl game to Memphis 48-55 in OT. This year they return 8 on offense and 5 on defense. QB Taysom Hill returns after being injured ( he rushed for 259 yds against Texas). A lot of their success will depend on how well Hill has recovered from his knee injury. They return 6 of the top 8 rushers including their top 2 and 6 of their top 9 receivers including their top 3 out of 4. They lose their top 3 tacklers also. They return 47 lettermen. Last year they were ranked #14 in scoring offense and #71 in scoring defense (average ranking of 42.5)

Nebraska – New HC Mike Riley replaces Bo Pelini who was 58-24 at Nebraska. Last season the Huskers were 9-4 including an impressive 24-19 win over Georgia in the Gator Bowl. Riley brought his old OC and DC with him from Oregon St. So the Huskers have to adapt to some new systems etc. They return 5 on offense including QB Tommy Armstrong but lose top RB Abdullah. They return 6 on defense but lose 4 of their top 5 tacklers. They return 60 lettermen. In 2014 they went 6-1 in home games. Last year they were ranked #12 in scoring offense and #59 in scoring defense (average ranking of 35.5)

Matchup: You can expect a more aggressive passing attack with Riley at the helm especially the short game. It will be interesting to see how the Huskers come out of the shoot under Riley but the home crowd could help. Mendenhall will once again be his own DC this season. Every game last year for the Cougars were decided one way or another by 7 or more points and they were 3-3 on the road. One interesting note is that in 2012 Oregon St (then coached by Riley) defeated BYU 42-14 after losing to them is 2011 by the score of 38-28. So these two coaches have the added experience of having played against each other before. The line now has Nebraska favored by around 5 points. There is some pressure on Riley in this one and if Taysom Hill is anywhere near healed and mobile this could be a very entertaining game. Again feel free to comment on this write up and/or your opinion on this game. BOL
 

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