from philsteele.com
Here is my Coaches on the Hot Seat List for 2015
1. Norm Chow, Hawaii – Norm is a great guy and loves the state of Hawaii and has had a long and outstanding career. There are numerous factors that put him #1 on the list. First of all the team has had very little success going just 8-29 in his tenure. This is an age of the young, energetic and connected head coach. Norm is 69 years old. Hawaii has some financial problems in the sports department and if they are going to get rid of him, they would owe him just a $200,000 buyout after the season, which is very cheap by today’s standards.
2. Al Golden, Miami Florida – As I mentioned in this years magazine in the final sentence of the conference write up, “It’s time Al.” Coach Golden inherited some problems he did not expect and that is why despite a losing record and just a 4 year mark of 28-22, he is back for a fifth year. I mentioned in last years magazine that I thought Miami was a year away from competing to be a top team in the ACC and despite losing 7 players to the NFL draft, that year is here. For the record I think Al gets off this list this year and I have Miami as my #1 Most Improved Team in the country, the same label that TCU owned last year when going from 4-8 to 12-1 and nearly making the playoffs. Six or 7 wins probably won’t cut it, by I am expecting more as is the fan base and administration.
3. Tim Beckman, Illinois – Last year should have been enough to get Coach Beckman off the list as Illinois got to an unexpected bowl game and that usually buys an extra year. Upon closer inspection, he has won just 4 Big Ten games in 3 years. There is also the off field problems that surfaced in May. Illinois figures to be an underdog in at least 7 games this year. Of course last year they were a dog in 8 games and still made it to a bowl. His predecessor Ron Zook was let go after back to back 7-6 campaigns.
4. Mike London, Virginia – Coach London opened strong and in his 2nd year got them to their first bowl game in 4 years and in that 2011 season had the first of three straight Top 25 recruiting classes. Unfortunately he is just 11-25 (5-19 in ACC play) the last 3 years and this years recruiting class dropped down to #49. Playing in the tough Coastal conference is not easy nor are the tough academic requirements at Virginia. He is the 6th highest paid coach in the ACC and probably needs a bowl to be around for a 6th year. Ironically he is one play away from not being on this list as last year his team was 5-7 but lost games by 7, 1 & 3 (and two by 8 pts) and in 4 of those 5 losses they actually out gained their opponents.
5. Willie Taggert, USF – Willie came in riding high after taking an 0-12 WKU team to records of 2-10, 7-5 and 7-6. He has had some solid recruiting classes in his 3 years and was #1 in the AAC in that category again this year. He did show improvement last year going from 2-10 to 4-8 and from -94.6 ypg in AAC play to -63.6 but I think USF fans expected more. Their 4 wins last year came by a combined 17 points including a miracle 1 point win at SMU. Their losses were not close as only once all year did they lose by single digits. USF needs to show some real progress this year but could be a dog in as many as 8 or 9 games facing 3 of the leagues top teams at home.
6. Scott Shafer, Syracuse – Scott stepped into a tough situation as Doug Marrone relied heavily on JUCO’s and Shafer is trying to switch that to freshmen recruiting. He had a solid first year guiding the Orange to a bowl game. Last year his team was gutted by injuries and slipped to 3-9. This year he has just 10 returning starters and figures to be a dog in at least 7 games. Also his AD is gone and new AD’s like to bring in their own guys. His contract is a bargain (lowest in ACC) and I think he can open 3-0 and if they stay healthy they will be much more competitive, but another losing season will likely be trouble.
7. Darrell Hazell, Purdue – He has only 12 scholarship seniors this year and enters his 3rd season. Danny Hope was 13-13 in his last two seasons getting to a bowl each time. In this era of quick turnarounds, fans expect success quickly. Hazell has gone just 4-20 in his first two years and 1-15 in Big Ten play. He does have 15 returning starters but they need to show solid improvement this year.
8. Larry Fedora, North Carolina – The academic fallout that is going on is not his fault but the Heels record has dropped each year. He is under contract thru 2018 but the disturbing part of last year is how many times it seemed his team just quit or stopped trying. They had too much talent to lose to East Carolina by 29, NC St by 28 and Rutgers by 19 and they had 3 other losses by over two td’s.
9. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt – I thought he made some big mistakes in his first year. He compared his athletic talent on D to what he had at Stanford and said they could contend in the SEC. Also in a couple of games he was down two scores and just allowed the clock to run out instead of using his timeouts and fighting to the end. Vandy has 18 returning starters and must be more competitive. It’s hard to believe Vanderbilt would only give a coach two years but it is possible.
Here is my Coaches on the Hot Seat List for 2015
1. Norm Chow, Hawaii – Norm is a great guy and loves the state of Hawaii and has had a long and outstanding career. There are numerous factors that put him #1 on the list. First of all the team has had very little success going just 8-29 in his tenure. This is an age of the young, energetic and connected head coach. Norm is 69 years old. Hawaii has some financial problems in the sports department and if they are going to get rid of him, they would owe him just a $200,000 buyout after the season, which is very cheap by today’s standards.
2. Al Golden, Miami Florida – As I mentioned in this years magazine in the final sentence of the conference write up, “It’s time Al.” Coach Golden inherited some problems he did not expect and that is why despite a losing record and just a 4 year mark of 28-22, he is back for a fifth year. I mentioned in last years magazine that I thought Miami was a year away from competing to be a top team in the ACC and despite losing 7 players to the NFL draft, that year is here. For the record I think Al gets off this list this year and I have Miami as my #1 Most Improved Team in the country, the same label that TCU owned last year when going from 4-8 to 12-1 and nearly making the playoffs. Six or 7 wins probably won’t cut it, by I am expecting more as is the fan base and administration.
3. Tim Beckman, Illinois – Last year should have been enough to get Coach Beckman off the list as Illinois got to an unexpected bowl game and that usually buys an extra year. Upon closer inspection, he has won just 4 Big Ten games in 3 years. There is also the off field problems that surfaced in May. Illinois figures to be an underdog in at least 7 games this year. Of course last year they were a dog in 8 games and still made it to a bowl. His predecessor Ron Zook was let go after back to back 7-6 campaigns.
4. Mike London, Virginia – Coach London opened strong and in his 2nd year got them to their first bowl game in 4 years and in that 2011 season had the first of three straight Top 25 recruiting classes. Unfortunately he is just 11-25 (5-19 in ACC play) the last 3 years and this years recruiting class dropped down to #49. Playing in the tough Coastal conference is not easy nor are the tough academic requirements at Virginia. He is the 6th highest paid coach in the ACC and probably needs a bowl to be around for a 6th year. Ironically he is one play away from not being on this list as last year his team was 5-7 but lost games by 7, 1 & 3 (and two by 8 pts) and in 4 of those 5 losses they actually out gained their opponents.
5. Willie Taggert, USF – Willie came in riding high after taking an 0-12 WKU team to records of 2-10, 7-5 and 7-6. He has had some solid recruiting classes in his 3 years and was #1 in the AAC in that category again this year. He did show improvement last year going from 2-10 to 4-8 and from -94.6 ypg in AAC play to -63.6 but I think USF fans expected more. Their 4 wins last year came by a combined 17 points including a miracle 1 point win at SMU. Their losses were not close as only once all year did they lose by single digits. USF needs to show some real progress this year but could be a dog in as many as 8 or 9 games facing 3 of the leagues top teams at home.
6. Scott Shafer, Syracuse – Scott stepped into a tough situation as Doug Marrone relied heavily on JUCO’s and Shafer is trying to switch that to freshmen recruiting. He had a solid first year guiding the Orange to a bowl game. Last year his team was gutted by injuries and slipped to 3-9. This year he has just 10 returning starters and figures to be a dog in at least 7 games. Also his AD is gone and new AD’s like to bring in their own guys. His contract is a bargain (lowest in ACC) and I think he can open 3-0 and if they stay healthy they will be much more competitive, but another losing season will likely be trouble.
7. Darrell Hazell, Purdue – He has only 12 scholarship seniors this year and enters his 3rd season. Danny Hope was 13-13 in his last two seasons getting to a bowl each time. In this era of quick turnarounds, fans expect success quickly. Hazell has gone just 4-20 in his first two years and 1-15 in Big Ten play. He does have 15 returning starters but they need to show solid improvement this year.
8. Larry Fedora, North Carolina – The academic fallout that is going on is not his fault but the Heels record has dropped each year. He is under contract thru 2018 but the disturbing part of last year is how many times it seemed his team just quit or stopped trying. They had too much talent to lose to East Carolina by 29, NC St by 28 and Rutgers by 19 and they had 3 other losses by over two td’s.
9. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt – I thought he made some big mistakes in his first year. He compared his athletic talent on D to what he had at Stanford and said they could contend in the SEC. Also in a couple of games he was down two scores and just allowed the clock to run out instead of using his timeouts and fighting to the end. Vandy has 18 returning starters and must be more competitive. It’s hard to believe Vanderbilt would only give a coach two years but it is possible.
if Hazell continues the improvement he isn't going anywhere. I think 4 or 5 wins this year is enough to keep his job. They improved from 1-11 to 3-9 and the numbers were far better... defense allowed a TD less per game and 50 yards less per game. if they can get to 28 ppg allowed and <400 yards they could even get bowl eligible. teams i'm a little higher on this year are tulane, purdue, pitt, and unc. I can see Purdue starting 3-1 and getting another 3 wins in the 6-game bucket of Minn, Neb, NW, Iowa, Ill, Indy. Of course they can also start 1-3 and finish 1-11 
i put Shafer in same boat as Hazell...very good coaches that need to be given 4 or 5 years
no idea how London and Taggert are still employed
i put Shafer in same boat as Hazell...very good coaches that need to be given 4 or 5 years
no idea how London and Taggert are still employed
if Hazell continues the improvement he isn't going anywhere. I think 4 or 5 wins this year is enough to keep his job. They improved from 1-11 to 3-9 and the numbers were far better... defense allowed a TD less per game and 50 yards less per game. if they can get to 28 ppg allowed and <400 yards they could even get bowl eligible. teams i'm a little higher on this year are tulane, purdue, pitt, and unc. I can see Purdue starting 3-1 and getting another 3 wins in the 6-game bucket of Minn, Neb, NW, Iowa, Ill, Indy. Of course they can also start 1-3 and finish 1-11
i put Shafer in same boat as Hazell...very good coaches that need to be given 4 or 5 years
no idea how London and Taggert are still employed
I think London will be fired this year. The fan base doesn't like him. I can't see anything other then a losing season for UVA. He hasn't landed a top recruit out of DC since as long as I can remember. We're two hours from Charlottesville. You have to do better than that.
I wonder about Texas and Charlie Strong. If he does not win more than 8 games his job could be in jeopardy. Think about how messed up the Texas athletic dept is at this point. After recently bragging about their financial superiority they extended Mack's contract in 2013 to 2020 and wound up firing him before the next season with a buyout and a settlement. So here is Strong with a 5 year contract and a buyout clause also. If Texas will get rid of Mack after all the positive things he had done for the school they would not hesitate to get rid of Strong if he cannot cut the mustard. Everyone wrote off last year and gave Strong a lot of built in excuses. I think he is now out of excuses. If he fails the athletic dept failed also. That proves that money is not everything. The opener for Texas at Notre Dame will be pressure packed for Texas. They lost 4 home games in 2014 so the fans are sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for a return to the old days. Last year they went 6-7. Mack could have done that good coaching from his front room. I do think it was time for Texas to make a change and in fact maybe they should have done it sooner. But the bottom line is that the Longhorn's settled on a coach when they hired Strong. Also who really wants that job at this time. Most HC's out there now seem to be looking for stability and to stay with the school where they are experiencing success and have plenty of support. Why risk all that just to move to Austin and have the eyes of Texas on you from day one. BOL
Just a reminder. Most of the stats etc that I have put together for the upcoming season are deep in this thread. The coaching chart for one is a one of a kind and reflects not only HC changes but OC and DC changes. It also shows how long each have been at their current school. There are many more posts worth reading. If you have the time you might just scan this thread from the start and pick out what interests you. I will have some first week picks coming up. BOL
For what it is worth. Week one may be one of the best weeks of the season for betting 1st half and 2nd half totals. Final totals can be affected by things like calling off the dogs, preventing injuries, facing a big foe on week 2 etc. Some of the big boys may let it go in the first half and then bring it in in the second half and that can affect the final totals. Other teams may need the first half to get their act together and come out swinging in the second half. If you are observing a given game there may be indications in the first half that one team may have a better second half etc.
I always urge everyone to watch as many games as you can on week one. I always suggest looking over all the box scores when all games are completed and compare stats and see how things like TO's played a part in the final score. We are more concerned with ATS at least on the teams we are wagering on. I also always suggest looking ahead to the next weeks schedule to see if there are some teams who may be looking ahead or playing to win and not by how much.
These are all pretty much common sense tools that experienced handicappers do from habit. For those of you who are new on here or have never made 1st or 2nd half bets before it might be worth your time to observe all these factors and come to your own conclusions. I have been doing this for along time and expanding your wagering prowess should be your number one goal. BOL
I always urge everyone to watch as many games as you can on week one. I always suggest looking over all the box scores when all games are completed and compare stats and see how things like TO's played a part in the final score. We are more concerned with ATS at least on the teams we are wagering on. I also always suggest looking ahead to the next weeks schedule to see if there are some teams who may be looking ahead or playing to win and not by how much.
These are all pretty much common sense tools that experienced handicappers do from habit. For those of you who are new on here or have never made 1st or 2nd half bets before it might be worth your time to observe all these factors and come to your own conclusions. I have been doing this for along time and expanding your wagering prowess should be your number one goal. BOL
^^^^^actually I bet more sides than totals when in comes to betting 1st and 2nd halfs. The same logic applies. Another thing to look for is team's that announce they will use more than one QB. In a rout back ups invariably get in the game. Again the big favorite may score more in the first half when their starters are in. Also if they have good defenses they may be harder to score against in the first half. Common sense again applies. Sometimes 1st half lines are more achievable then final lines. BOL
