MMA Wagers 2009

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Following up on the UFC 106 plays....

Added another 1u to
Sotiropoulos over Dent 4u/1.2u -340 bodog

JAson Dent looks like he should be at 145 to me. He seems soft and does not have the power to get a ko on the feet barring a fluke. He has made a career of off subbing people. Dent was ebing severly outstruck by Cameron Dollar last time out before cathcing him in an anacanda. I see almost no way he subs G Sotir. Sotir survived almost a full round with Aoki tied up around his legs. Sotir standup looked decent last time out. He hurt Roop on the feet. Throughout his UFC career he has had no problem taking people down. IMO he will over power Dent, take him down, soften him up and finish him with strikes or a sub in the first.

Cane over Lil Nog 1u/1.5u +155 bodog
You can still get +140 at Bodog. I figured Lil Nog has an advantage on the ground bc i have seen him utilize it against steller comp, but, Cane is also a BBJ black belt. Nog seems to have no problem standing with people and I would not be suprised if this fight turns into a boxing/muy thai fight. Despite Nog being a member of the Braz Natl Boxing team, I think Cane, although maybe not as technical may be more dangerous. This is really anyone fight to me. Cane has shown good cardio and a solid chin in his fights with Soko and Cantwell. This fight is a pick imo and if the line moves enough, I may take my free money and enjoy.

 

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Mir over Congo 1.5u/1u -155 5dimes

Until Congo can show me that his game has progressed beyond having excellent kickboxing, I will feel comfortable betting against him at this line. We all know Mir has an excellent ground game, but if you can take anything out of his last two performances is that his stand up has improved dramatically. While this does not mean he should stand and bang with Congo, I do believe he can present enough of a challenge on the feet to make Congo work. When this happens, I fully expect Congo to lose discipline and wind up being taken down from the clinch. Unlike Lesnar, Congo will not have the suffocating top control to neutralize Mir's guard and offensive BBJ. I like this play for 1u from -175- 200

 

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[COLOR=#000000! important]Alexander over Slice 1u/.6u -162 Bookmaker -
Missed the opener -115 which would have ben hit for 2 units.

With both fighters showing no propensity to go to ground, prolly will play out on the feet. Kimbo may want to shoot and look for some ground and pound and use his size advantage, but takedowns and td defense do not come over night, and I think both fighters revert to their stand up roots.

With that said, this is a match up of Kimbo's boxing vs. Alexander's muy thai. Alexander seems to have more well versed and dangerous stand up, he utilizes leg kicks and knees very effectively. Both men have been ko'd recently, Alexander by Irvin and Silva and Kinbo by Petrizelli's jab, so this is a high variance fight.

Kimbo says the weight cut was very tough on him and I hinestly think he has lost some confidence. Alexander should have better movement and should win this fight 70% of the time, making -162 a sold play.[/COLOR]

 

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Alexander -160 open at bodog, adding another .5u before moves

 

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Wallace over Stann .5u/.6u +115 Bodog
Wallace, Rodney – 9-0
5’9 light heavyweight
Has boxing backround, 4-1 as pro, seems to kep hands low and throw no kicks, but footage limited. Had been training with Tim Kennedy but Kennedy moving.
Has has shown nice bjj in fights
Good athlete, 3 time state h.s. wrestling champ, played D11 football
Coming off of nice tourney victory on 9/5/09 in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on">Aruba</st1lace>. Fights were two 5 minute rounds and he defeated Antwain Britt (collegiate wrestling stand out) by armbar in finals. Would assume good cardio. Defeated IFL vet Aaron Stark by kimura in semi who has fought UFC vets picking up wins of Alex Shoenauer and Andy Reese.
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Stann, Brian
6’1 powerful striker with serious ko power, good athlete, played D1 football at Navy – is training camps at Jackson MMA.
Should have nice reach advantage, technical boxer, doesn’t throw many leg kicks
Has been hurt on feet by Cantwell in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> fight. Third fight very slow, Stann won standup, nobody threatened. Cantwell was -300 after Stann be -300 in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> fight.
Soszynski took Stann down at will, ended in first with a kimura +145

If Soszynski can dump Stann easily, Wallace should be able to. Think he can hurt him with elbows on the ground. Not sure about chin. But guy looks strong and seems to have a powerful right. Not sure how standup will go, but no need to test it for Wallace.
I think Wallace should be slight fav so a little value here.

 

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UFC 108

Condit over Daley 2u/1.4u -145 Bookmaker

Condit is a 6'1 well rounded fighter with decent muy thai and very good BJJ and Judo throws. He has a good chin and can take punishment. He is battle tested and proves to be very resilient late in fights.

Daley is a 5'9 Brit with excellent fst, powerful hands. His career has been marred be a failure to advance in takedown defense and ground game. His td defense has looked better in recent fights, but still not good enough.

IMO Condit should be around -240. Nick Thompson's decision win over Daley should be a blue print of where to start for COndit. Use your reach to keep Daley at bay. WHen he is close enough to unleash his power, work for the takedown where. Once on his back, Daley is basically a fish out of water.

If Condit didnt have such a good chin and propensity to recover from heavy shots, I think this line would be more accurate. But, even if he gets dropped, I think he can recover.

 

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Nelson over Schaub 1u/.4u -250 Bookmaker
I think line bottomed out at -243, so will take now.

Roy Nelson – Black Belt in Bjj under Renzo Gracie, great ground game, good cardio. Stand up is lacking, get hit a lot, top control is excellent. Very patient


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In all 3 TUF fights he got out struck imo. But can take a punch and does have power and does hve power of his own. (Wren outstruck him until he gassed hard)
On ground, is all about patiently working to dominant position then pounding.
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Schaub Brendan – 6’6’ Former AFL football player who trains with Trevor Whittman in Colo with Carwin and Marquardt. Share camps with Jackson MMA. Won Golden Gloves in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">colorado</st1:State></st1lace> and has purple belt in bjj. Got taking down at will in first minute of second fight v. johnny curtis (who was all american wrestler with no stand up) <o></o>
<o> </o>
In all three fights on show <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Rogers</st1lace></st1:City>, Madsen and Davis, he was taken down almost at will. Escaped mount against Rogers and Daivs. Two nice ko’s and an anacanda on <st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Rogers</st1:City></st1lace>.<o></o>
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Here, Schaub will not be able to escape mount. If fight goes down, Nelson will slowly work his game and succeed, but anytime fight goes up, Nelson in danger of getting ko'd. This is a similiar situation to the Arlovski fight last year, excpet Schaub is not Arlovski and seems much more suseptable to takedown. Would think Nelson could manage to implement his game 75% of time at a minimum so playing the -300 is a push, but may want to start with 1u at -250, 1.5u at -225 if it gets there.

 

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[COLOR=#000000! important]Guess i jumped the gun on Nelson, added another 1u at -215 bookmaker for total:
Nelson over Schaub 2u/.9u[/COLOR]
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[COLOR=#000000! important]This is really suprising to me Nelson now at -173 addin abother 1u for .6u

Just dont think Schaub can keep this fight up enough to pull out the win here. Yea, he escaped mount against Rogers and Big baby. Two guys with a total of 5 professional fights. Big baby has been training BJJ for TWO years. Nelson has dedicated a majority of his life to it.

Nelson can get hurt on the feet, but I think he has the chin to take enough to impliment his game plan.


Pending plays:
Nelson over Schaub 3u/1.5u
Alexander over Kimbo 1.5u/.9u (dont recommend play at current number)
Wallace over Stann .5u/.6u

UFC 107
Mir over Kongo 1.5u/1u

UFC 108
Condit over Daley 2u/1.4u (better number available, but would keep at 2u until Condit gets into +, which he shouldnt imo)[/COLOR]
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