YTD 14-11 +10.5
In a little slump lately. Thought i took a tough loss on Wiman as a dog and I still think the Lambert line was way off.
Been slacking on my fight watching and handicapping, should have got this one out earlier as it opened at -125 on bodog, but still like -195 on 5dimes.
Miller over Sonnen 2u/1u - Sonnen is a good wrestler with decent standup, but i think Miller is better at everything. I also think he is more athletic and hungrier. I dont take much from Sonnen win over Filho. He tends to leave himself open to submissions as well. I think Miller will get the better of Sonnen on the feet and he will also out grapple him when Sonnen tries to take fight to ground. I think Miller takes fight 75-80% of time.
Would lean on Matt Serra at +205, Professor X at -190 and Sosynski at +125 but not enough to make play as my neglect missed better numbers where I would have made the move.
Also DREAM 5/26
Kawajiri over Calvancante .5u/.8u - I think there are to many questions about how JZ brings it after such long layoff. Kawajiri standup looks very strong lately and always good wrestling. I see high variance in this fight and think +155 too muck.
Gegard Mousasi to win super hulk 2u/4.4u - Mousasi is -210 against Hunt in the opening round and I think that is the lowest line you will see in this tourney. He would be way too agile for Choi, who is likely to go to second round, and I honelty think he will be -250 to -300 over Sokojou. Therefore, i think there is value here. Mousasi should come in at 220 lbs+ and he is by far the most well rounded and versitile fighter in a tourney filled with one deminsional strikers fighters.
In a little slump lately. Thought i took a tough loss on Wiman as a dog and I still think the Lambert line was way off.
Been slacking on my fight watching and handicapping, should have got this one out earlier as it opened at -125 on bodog, but still like -195 on 5dimes.
Miller over Sonnen 2u/1u - Sonnen is a good wrestler with decent standup, but i think Miller is better at everything. I also think he is more athletic and hungrier. I dont take much from Sonnen win over Filho. He tends to leave himself open to submissions as well. I think Miller will get the better of Sonnen on the feet and he will also out grapple him when Sonnen tries to take fight to ground. I think Miller takes fight 75-80% of time.
Would lean on Matt Serra at +205, Professor X at -190 and Sosynski at +125 but not enough to make play as my neglect missed better numbers where I would have made the move.
Also DREAM 5/26
Kawajiri over Calvancante .5u/.8u - I think there are to many questions about how JZ brings it after such long layoff. Kawajiri standup looks very strong lately and always good wrestling. I see high variance in this fight and think +155 too muck.
Gegard Mousasi to win super hulk 2u/4.4u - Mousasi is -210 against Hunt in the opening round and I think that is the lowest line you will see in this tourney. He would be way too agile for Choi, who is likely to go to second round, and I honelty think he will be -250 to -300 over Sokojou. Therefore, i think there is value here. Mousasi should come in at 220 lbs+ and he is by far the most well rounded and versitile fighter in a tourney filled with one deminsional strikers fighters.
YTD 16-12 +11u
Pending Mousasi to win Hulk 2/4.4u
Split last weekend w/ Miller loss and Kawajiri win.
DOnt like taking big favs to break out of slump, but cant pass this one up
Cavalcante over Kyle 5u/1.4u -370 - "Feijao" should be -800 imo. From what I have seen of Kyle, he has no sub defense. Feijao has world class bbj. Kyle is a threat with his power, but Feijao trains with Andersen Silva and sees he best striking in the world in training. I only hear his handelers raving about his potential. They are throwing him a bone here after his championship fight w/ Babalu got called off. I expect this to be about as fast as the Wayne Cole sub on Kyle. This shouldnt leave the first.
Pending Mousasi to win Hulk 2/4.4u
Split last weekend w/ Miller loss and Kawajiri win.
DOnt like taking big favs to break out of slump, but cant pass this one up
Cavalcante over Kyle 5u/1.4u -370 - "Feijao" should be -800 imo. From what I have seen of Kyle, he has no sub defense. Feijao has world class bbj. Kyle is a threat with his power, but Feijao trains with Andersen Silva and sees he best striking in the world in training. I only hear his handelers raving about his potential. They are throwing him a bone here after his championship fight w/ Babalu got called off. I expect this to be about as fast as the Wayne Cole sub on Kyle. This shouldnt leave the first.
YTD 16-13 +6u
HAve not posted in a while as I was slumping and didnt want to bring anyone down with me. But, I am out of my funk.
Carano over Cyborg +160 2.5u/4u - I think the majority of the Cyborg hype comes from her national tv thrashing of shana bazzler (who is a 135lbs) and I dont really understand why she is the favorite. She clearly has power and may be able to end the fight early. But I think Carano has better standup. Cyborg's cardio didnt look great her last fight. Carano trains with a better camp. Carano is always in the spotlight, therefore may handle the pressure better. I beleive Cyborg is a purple belt in bjj and probably has better jits, but I dont think she can take Carano down. Only two fights Cyborg has had against 145lbs went to decision.
I think fighters start out tentative. Cyborg starts throwing heavy leather. By second she gets frustrated that she cant find mark and starts getting picked apart especially with leg kicks. By third t the latest her tank is empty and she gets tkod.
Carano by tko second or third.
HAve not posted in a while as I was slumping and didnt want to bring anyone down with me. But, I am out of my funk.
Carano over Cyborg +160 2.5u/4u - I think the majority of the Cyborg hype comes from her national tv thrashing of shana bazzler (who is a 135lbs) and I dont really understand why she is the favorite. She clearly has power and may be able to end the fight early. But I think Carano has better standup. Cyborg's cardio didnt look great her last fight. Carano trains with a better camp. Carano is always in the spotlight, therefore may handle the pressure better. I beleive Cyborg is a purple belt in bjj and probably has better jits, but I dont think she can take Carano down. Only two fights Cyborg has had against 145lbs went to decision.
I think fighters start out tentative. Cyborg starts throwing heavy leather. By second she gets frustrated that she cant find mark and starts getting picked apart especially with leg kicks. By third t the latest her tank is empty and she gets tkod.
Carano by tko second or third.
YTD 16-15 +1.5u
Mousasi w/d from SuperHulk with injury hitting me for another -2u. After a year + of quality plays, my posted record has plummeted. However, I still feel like I see MMA clearly and can find some holes in the books, so I will stick the posts.:smoker2:
UFC 103
Dos Santos over Cro Cop 5u/4u - I know the best way to get out of slump is not to chase, but I really like Dos Santos that much here. Hit it at +100 while back and doubled up at -130 today. Cro Cop is a shell of his former self and if you just looked at the last 2.5 years of his career this line would be -400. Big Nog sings the praises of Dos Santos who has great ground skills but has just blasted through his first 2 opponents in the octogon. Cro Cop has lost more than a step, and this bet is more of a play against him. He does not seem to have the killer intinct anymore, reflexes have slowed. He always has been one-dimensional and that one dimension is just average now.
Cole Miller/Efrain Escadaro goes the Distance 1u/1.6u (5dimes) - Miller like to play from guard and has been susectiple to taking too much damage in the past, but from what I have seen from Efrain he is still too one - dimensional to pound him out. Biggest concern is Miller catching him in sub.
Miller over Escadaro by Dec .5u/3.2 - (5dimes) hung a +642 here. Way too much imo. Miller seems to improve each time out. Will have a huge reach advantage, can control fight from his back (dont know how much love you get from judges there though, really a crapshoot). Efrain seemed drained at weigh-in also, missed weight at 157.
May add more...
Also have played lately..
UFC 104
Yoshida over Anthony Johnson 1u/2.3u (bookmaker) - Yoshida is a seasoned vet. Everyone thinks koscheck ko, but Yoshida blown throw his other two ufc opponents and looked great in the cage force tournment. He is well rounded, a high level balck belt in judo and has great gnp. Johnson is an excellent athlete, has shown good take down defense and devasting striking, but i think this is anyone fight. I think Yoshida can find success closing the distance and working the clinch against the cage to set up his Judo. I see value here.
UFC 105
Bisping over Kang 1.5u/1.7u - I got +135 while back, but +110 still good. Kang has never stepped up in big fights. THis will most likely be co-main event in england. I think Bisping just let his nerves get to him at UFC 100. But here, he will be comfortble. He has better stand up imo and noone has ever inflicted any damage against him on the ground. Evans and Hamill coiuld not keep him down and neither will Kang. Bisping should be the fav -150 - -200 imo.
Mousasi w/d from SuperHulk with injury hitting me for another -2u. After a year + of quality plays, my posted record has plummeted. However, I still feel like I see MMA clearly and can find some holes in the books, so I will stick the posts.:smoker2:
UFC 103
Dos Santos over Cro Cop 5u/4u - I know the best way to get out of slump is not to chase, but I really like Dos Santos that much here. Hit it at +100 while back and doubled up at -130 today. Cro Cop is a shell of his former self and if you just looked at the last 2.5 years of his career this line would be -400. Big Nog sings the praises of Dos Santos who has great ground skills but has just blasted through his first 2 opponents in the octogon. Cro Cop has lost more than a step, and this bet is more of a play against him. He does not seem to have the killer intinct anymore, reflexes have slowed. He always has been one-dimensional and that one dimension is just average now.
Cole Miller/Efrain Escadaro goes the Distance 1u/1.6u (5dimes) - Miller like to play from guard and has been susectiple to taking too much damage in the past, but from what I have seen from Efrain he is still too one - dimensional to pound him out. Biggest concern is Miller catching him in sub.
Miller over Escadaro by Dec .5u/3.2 - (5dimes) hung a +642 here. Way too much imo. Miller seems to improve each time out. Will have a huge reach advantage, can control fight from his back (dont know how much love you get from judges there though, really a crapshoot). Efrain seemed drained at weigh-in also, missed weight at 157.
May add more...
Also have played lately..
UFC 104
Yoshida over Anthony Johnson 1u/2.3u (bookmaker) - Yoshida is a seasoned vet. Everyone thinks koscheck ko, but Yoshida blown throw his other two ufc opponents and looked great in the cage force tournment. He is well rounded, a high level balck belt in judo and has great gnp. Johnson is an excellent athlete, has shown good take down defense and devasting striking, but i think this is anyone fight. I think Yoshida can find success closing the distance and working the clinch against the cage to set up his Judo. I see value here.
UFC 105
Bisping over Kang 1.5u/1.7u - I got +135 while back, but +110 still good. Kang has never stepped up in big fights. THis will most likely be co-main event in england. I think Bisping just let his nerves get to him at UFC 100. But here, he will be comfortble. He has better stand up imo and noone has ever inflicted any damage against him on the ground. Evans and Hamill coiuld not keep him down and neither will Kang. Bisping should be the fav -150 - -200 imo.
YTD 17-17 +4u
copy paste from above
Yoshida over Anthony Johnson 1u/2.3u (bookmaker) - Yoshida is a seasoned vet. Everyone thinks koscheck ko, but Yoshida blown throw his other two ufc opponents and looked great in the cage force tournment. He is well rounded, a high level balck belt in judo and has great gnp. Johnson is an excellent athlete, has shown good take down defense and devasting striking, but i think this is anyone fight. I think Yoshida can find success closing the distance and working the clinch against the cage to set up his Judo. I see value here.
Bad line here, as could have waited for much better. I am somewhat concerned that the size and reach advantage is going to prevent yoshida from closing the distance. But Johnson came down from 220 and his tank has been suspect in the past.
Adding
Fisher over Stevenson 1u/2.2u - Dont see much action on this one. Consensus seems to be Fisher will be grinded out like he has in the paste by wrestlers. But, Stevenson's wrestling is not on the same level as Edgars and The King claims he has focused primarily on wrestling over the past year. It showed against Uno (although much smaller an opponent). But when Stevenson cannot get take down early, he tends to not waste energy and stands and trades. If Fisher keeps of his back he will win fight imo.
Schafer over Bader .5/1.8 - Schaffer never gets much love, but he is more well rounded than he gets credit for. Dont know if Bader gets the quality bjj training at ACS to prep for an elite grappler like Schaffer. Yea, he ko'd Vinny, but Vinny M has not translated his bjj into MMA very effectively. I will take a flier here.
Okami over Sonnen/Valesquez over Rothwell 2u/1.5 - Start with Cain, he is an elite wrster and from all reports picked up grappling faster than anyone his size his handelers had ever seen. He got a UFC contract by perfoming an open workout for Dana. He is legit. He got dropped repeatedly by Kongo, but the fact he recovered so fast shows hoe strong his chin is. He has the mexican chin. Rothwell will be put in his back and grinded all night imo.
IMO Okami is stronger than Sonnen in every aspect. Sonnen wins with wrestling and top control, but that aint happeneing here. I actually think Okami may sub Sonnen who has always been lax leaving his limps and neck out there.
Only concern here is an emotional letdown for Okami since he is repeatedly buried on undercard.
Would like to take Galesic, but like Core, I have been abused by Japenese MMA for the last year.
For UFC 105 addding....
Couture over Vera 1.5/1.3 - Give me father time at almost a pick em. Vera has not looked elite in about 2+ years (since the layoff. Whereas, Couture brings it with the best every time out. If Couture can press Lesnar against the cage and dump him (cage grab kept him up), he will close the distance and maul the shit out of Vera.
copy paste from above
Yoshida over Anthony Johnson 1u/2.3u (bookmaker) - Yoshida is a seasoned vet. Everyone thinks koscheck ko, but Yoshida blown throw his other two ufc opponents and looked great in the cage force tournment. He is well rounded, a high level balck belt in judo and has great gnp. Johnson is an excellent athlete, has shown good take down defense and devasting striking, but i think this is anyone fight. I think Yoshida can find success closing the distance and working the clinch against the cage to set up his Judo. I see value here.
Bad line here, as could have waited for much better. I am somewhat concerned that the size and reach advantage is going to prevent yoshida from closing the distance. But Johnson came down from 220 and his tank has been suspect in the past.
Adding
Fisher over Stevenson 1u/2.2u - Dont see much action on this one. Consensus seems to be Fisher will be grinded out like he has in the paste by wrestlers. But, Stevenson's wrestling is not on the same level as Edgars and The King claims he has focused primarily on wrestling over the past year. It showed against Uno (although much smaller an opponent). But when Stevenson cannot get take down early, he tends to not waste energy and stands and trades. If Fisher keeps of his back he will win fight imo.
Schafer over Bader .5/1.8 - Schaffer never gets much love, but he is more well rounded than he gets credit for. Dont know if Bader gets the quality bjj training at ACS to prep for an elite grappler like Schaffer. Yea, he ko'd Vinny, but Vinny M has not translated his bjj into MMA very effectively. I will take a flier here.
Okami over Sonnen/Valesquez over Rothwell 2u/1.5 - Start with Cain, he is an elite wrster and from all reports picked up grappling faster than anyone his size his handelers had ever seen. He got a UFC contract by perfoming an open workout for Dana. He is legit. He got dropped repeatedly by Kongo, but the fact he recovered so fast shows hoe strong his chin is. He has the mexican chin. Rothwell will be put in his back and grinded all night imo.
IMO Okami is stronger than Sonnen in every aspect. Sonnen wins with wrestling and top control, but that aint happeneing here. I actually think Okami may sub Sonnen who has always been lax leaving his limps and neck out there.
Only concern here is an emotional letdown for Okami since he is repeatedly buried on undercard.
Would like to take Galesic, but like Core, I have been abused by Japenese MMA for the last year.
For UFC 105 addding....
Couture over Vera 1.5/1.3 - Give me father time at almost a pick em. Vera has not looked elite in about 2+ years (since the layoff. Whereas, Couture brings it with the best every time out. If Couture can press Lesnar against the cage and dump him (cage grab kept him up), he will close the distance and maul the shit out of Vera.
embarrising performance last time out
moving on...
Werdum over Silva 1.5u/1u -150 Bodog
Silva's standup is mediocre at best and I beleive Werdum has a good chin. I had trouble finding many of Werdum's old fights as they are all owed by Zuffa and I dont have UFC on demand anymore, but if I recall correctly, he has always shown and ability to recover from knock downs. The Dos Santos uppercut would have ko'd an OX. Silva's standup is mediocre at best. He seems to drop his nahds alot, his footwork is not great and he seems on the slow side. Werdum has trained alot of standup the past several years and has improved.
And as for the grappling, Werdum is the better grappler.
The ways I see Silva winning this fight are 1) he keeps distance and uses reach to outpoint Werdum in dull stand up fight. When Werdum closes distance, he cannot get the trip takedown.
2) Silva winds up in top control and I have under estimated his ground game and he keeps Werdum on back using size to smother and limit Werdums offensive bjj.
But more likely, I think Werdum holds his owns on feet and as fight goes on Silva's cardio goes. By third, Werdum is taking fight to ground with trips and throws and domintates Silva from the tiop, ending fight in tko or sub.
I think Werdum should be in the -225 - -275 range.
Rockhold over Taylor 1u/1.6u +160 Bodog
Taylor is powerful, has great wrestling and good top control. He was on a nice 7 fight win streak before being controlled by Heiron. Rockhold has looked great under in Strikeforce and I think he is an up and comer with much potential. He has fast hands, power and has decent bjj.
I think the fight comes down to whether Rockhold can stay off of his back. The reason I am giving him the nod is because he trains at AKA and has the luxtury of working with Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck everyday.
Rockhold is the more explosive fighter and has more ways to win the fight. I would not be suprised if Taylor grinded out a decision, but I see value. I would think this fight would be a pick em.
moving on...
Werdum over Silva 1.5u/1u -150 Bodog
Silva's standup is mediocre at best and I beleive Werdum has a good chin. I had trouble finding many of Werdum's old fights as they are all owed by Zuffa and I dont have UFC on demand anymore, but if I recall correctly, he has always shown and ability to recover from knock downs. The Dos Santos uppercut would have ko'd an OX. Silva's standup is mediocre at best. He seems to drop his nahds alot, his footwork is not great and he seems on the slow side. Werdum has trained alot of standup the past several years and has improved.
And as for the grappling, Werdum is the better grappler.
The ways I see Silva winning this fight are 1) he keeps distance and uses reach to outpoint Werdum in dull stand up fight. When Werdum closes distance, he cannot get the trip takedown.
2) Silva winds up in top control and I have under estimated his ground game and he keeps Werdum on back using size to smother and limit Werdums offensive bjj.
But more likely, I think Werdum holds his owns on feet and as fight goes on Silva's cardio goes. By third, Werdum is taking fight to ground with trips and throws and domintates Silva from the tiop, ending fight in tko or sub.
I think Werdum should be in the -225 - -275 range.
Rockhold over Taylor 1u/1.6u +160 Bodog
Taylor is powerful, has great wrestling and good top control. He was on a nice 7 fight win streak before being controlled by Heiron. Rockhold has looked great under in Strikeforce and I think he is an up and comer with much potential. He has fast hands, power and has decent bjj.
I think the fight comes down to whether Rockhold can stay off of his back. The reason I am giving him the nod is because he trains at AKA and has the luxtury of working with Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck everyday.
Rockhold is the more explosive fighter and has more ways to win the fight. I would not be suprised if Taylor grinded out a decision, but I see value. I would think this fight would be a pick em.
Darabedyan over McCollough 1u/1.5u +150 Bookmaker –
Waited all day for these lines and the +265 moved on me within minutes and i missed it. But will still take +150 as i cant see Razor Rob being favored over a young well-rounded prospect. Darabedyan has a black belt in judo, karate and takwondo. He also has amatuer boxing and muy thai experience. Although fight footage on him is limited, he appears to be well rounded. This is more of a play against Razor Rob as he has looked terrible since his KO loss to Varner. Although he was injured (broken hand) against Hicks, I am not sure when that happened and was hesitent form the opening bell. He did not look good against Alexander either and was thouroughly out struck by Corronne. I am not sure if he has lost a step or has lost some motivation, or both, but he does not appear to be the treat he once was.
Hopped to get Gamburyan as a +150 or higher, but probably no play at current line.
Lean on MTB as well as he is much stronger and has never been ko'd.
Waited all day for these lines and the +265 moved on me within minutes and i missed it. But will still take +150 as i cant see Razor Rob being favored over a young well-rounded prospect. Darabedyan has a black belt in judo, karate and takwondo. He also has amatuer boxing and muy thai experience. Although fight footage on him is limited, he appears to be well rounded. This is more of a play against Razor Rob as he has looked terrible since his KO loss to Varner. Although he was injured (broken hand) against Hicks, I am not sure when that happened and was hesitent form the opening bell. He did not look good against Alexander either and was thouroughly out struck by Corronne. I am not sure if he has lost a step or has lost some motivation, or both, but he does not appear to be the treat he once was.
Hopped to get Gamburyan as a +150 or higher, but probably no play at current line.
Lean on MTB as well as he is much stronger and has never been ko'd.
LC Davis over Diego Nunez 1u/1.4 +140 Bookmaker
Davis kind of has had a fall from grace lately, going from one of the favorites to win the WVR feathorweight gp to an underdog against Nunez who frequents the WEC undercards. Nunes is a muy thai and bbj fighter, but he will want to keep this fight standing.
Davis has had success in the pst taking fighters down and pounding them with top control and i think there is a better chance that he succeeds here.
The reason Davis looked like shit against Omigawa is because he could not take him down. I dont think he should be the underdog as he gets this fight to the ground in atleast 2 of the 3 rounds and stays active enought o get dec nod.
Davis kind of has had a fall from grace lately, going from one of the favorites to win the WVR feathorweight gp to an underdog against Nunez who frequents the WEC undercards. Nunes is a muy thai and bbj fighter, but he will want to keep this fight standing.
Davis has had success in the pst taking fighters down and pounding them with top control and i think there is a better chance that he succeeds here.
The reason Davis looked like shit against Omigawa is because he could not take him down. I dont think he should be the underdog as he gets this fight to the ground in atleast 2 of the 3 rounds and stays active enought o get dec nod.
Brown/Aldo to win FON .5u/1.4u +275 Bookmaker
McCollough/Darabedyan to win FON .5u/2.1u +425 Bookmaker
I really think there is a good chance one of these takes fight of night. This is also a little insurance against my Darabedyan play because i think for McCollough to win the fight he is going to have to come out more explosive and active than he was last time out, and he has show the ability to take punishment. If a war on the feet ensues, then there is a good chance for FON imo.
With Brown v. Aldo, Brown has never been ko'd, and Aldo is very explosive. Both of their recent fights have been very exciting, if Aldo can avoid being smothered by Brown on the ground and can get his striking going at all, there is a good chance this will take it. Basically, if this fight goes into the championship rounds, it is going to take a very, very strong perfomance by two othre compititors to keep the bonus checks out of their hands.
McCollough/Darabedyan to win FON .5u/2.1u +425 Bookmaker
I really think there is a good chance one of these takes fight of night. This is also a little insurance against my Darabedyan play because i think for McCollough to win the fight he is going to have to come out more explosive and active than he was last time out, and he has show the ability to take punishment. If a war on the feet ensues, then there is a good chance for FON imo.
With Brown v. Aldo, Brown has never been ko'd, and Aldo is very explosive. Both of their recent fights have been very exciting, if Aldo can avoid being smothered by Brown on the ground and can get his striking going at all, there is a good chance this will take it. Basically, if this fight goes into the championship rounds, it is going to take a very, very strong perfomance by two othre compititors to keep the bonus checks out of their hands.
ffice
></o[COLOR=#000000 !important]Real short on time but wanted to throw these out there
Sirtopoulous over Dent 3u/.9u -340 bodog - lines moved real quick, was -280. But should be -500. 90% sirtopoulos wins this fight imo.
Cane over Lil Nog 1u/1.5u +155 bodog - close to even skill sets here. lil nog better ground game but think line too high[/COLOR]
Sirtopoulous over Dent 3u/.9u -340 bodog - lines moved real quick, was -280. But should be -500. 90% sirtopoulos wins this fight imo.
Cane over Lil Nog 1u/1.5u +155 bodog - close to even skill sets here. lil nog better ground game but think line too high[/COLOR]
Ortiz/Griffin to go Distance 2u/1.1u -185 5dimes
Only way i see this fight ending early is by injury or Griffin gets stopped by tko from gnp. Griffin never finishes anyone with his hands. Ortiz bjj is underrated. That, coupled with fact he has very good control makes me hard to see Griffin sub. Ortiz is coming off long layoff and Griffin is more well rounded than he was 3,5 years ago and i think he will do a better job keeping this one standing. Standing i dont think anyone will be finished. I see 2 rounds to 1 decision for Griffin, but think this bet has better value.
Only way i see this fight ending early is by injury or Griffin gets stopped by tko from gnp. Griffin never finishes anyone with his hands. Ortiz bjj is underrated. That, coupled with fact he has very good control makes me hard to see Griffin sub. Ortiz is coming off long layoff and Griffin is more well rounded than he was 3,5 years ago and i think he will do a better job keeping this one standing. Standing i dont think anyone will be finished. I see 2 rounds to 1 decision for Griffin, but think this bet has better value.
