MMA Wagers 2009

[terpkeg]

WEC 38

Villefort over Campbell 1.5u/1.1u - (-130 bodog) Villefort has a black belt in judo and bjj, he comes form a good pedigree (father was a great vale judo fighter) and trains with American Top Team. Campbell is prospect training with Team Sityodtong. ALthough I expect he will be very prepared since Dellagrata always comes with a great game plan, his mma skills seem limited. He has shown no desire to go to the ground and with a blackbeklt in judo Villefort should be able to get it there. Villefort showed ground prowess in win over Massenzio. Campbell was a competitive power lifter and does possess great power, so if Villefort cant get this fight down then we will have a problem, but ill take the experience. Thought the -190 was closer to the correct number, expected -200 min.

Further, Villefort used to walk at 200 lbs and fight at 185. He says he is in the best shape of life on a new diet and getting to 170 not an issue.

 

[terpkeg]

Machida over Silva 4u/1.5u - -270 is the best out now. Got -250 earlier today. Use your best judgement on where you think this line is going to go, but i think it should be -400. Silva needs to prove to me that he is elite. Only fight in UFC where he was pushed he looked like shit and had no cardio. Mendes had him hurt early and i dont think Mendes beloings in the UFC. Silva is too wild, Machida will pick him apart and i think he will actually finish him.

 

[terpkeg]

Ytd 7-3 +8.1

 

[terpkeg]

UFC 91 1-1 -.5
YTD 8-4 +7.6u

UFC 94
Silva over Leites 5u/1.8u (-280 bookmaker) Had to jump on this big. Book gives Silva 73% chance to win this fight. I just dont see how this isnt much higher. Some will say Silva looked a little disinterested last time out although it seemed to me like he was just trying to put on a show for the fans and dominated the fight. After hearing about it, i think he comes out for the kill. Despite Leites knocked down of MArquardt (where he quickly recovered), I have never seen much power from him in the UFC. The majority of his wins come by submission. In last 1.5 years he has sub'd McFedries (shocking) and won the controversial split decision over Marquardt who is the 2nd best MW imo, but he needed two point deduction (one of them very questionable late in the fight) to win a split decision. He was dominated imo. I dont see this surviving the first if Silva is focused during training.

 

[terpkeg]

UFN plays real quick for anyone interested, not alot of time lately.

Louzon over Stephens 3u/1.7u (-170 5dimes) - Louzon shouldnt have much trouble taking this fight to ground and beating on Stephens imo. Stephens has been susectiple to groundgame and td's in Thomas, Fisher and Dos Anjos fights. There is a reason Lou gets MAin event status. UFC matchmaking knows whats up.

Miller over Roshalt 2u/1.1u (-178 5dimes) - Rosholt all wrestling. Standup looked terribel last time out. Miller has good wrestling pedigree to thawt him. Way more well rounded.

Slight leans on Emerson and Neer as dogs, but no plays there yet.

 

[terpkeg]

Anyone with the available funds to make it worth their while, there is a nice scalp available on bodog and 5dimes

Neer +145 bd
Danzig -132 5d

 

[terpkeg]

Brian Cobb over Terry Etim 1.5u over 3.3u - +215 bookmaker - Etim standup looked real good lately, but Cobb is a talented up and comer with a good wrestling background. He has fought at a high level of competition for a few years now, so although it is his ufc debut, hopefully fights in elitexc, shooto and main event status on the california circuit will help ease any big fight jitters. Etim is a lower level bbj fighter and, although Cobbs standup doesnt looked great to me, I think this is a fight he can take if he can put Etim on his back. I see value in +215, was expecting -180/+150

 

[terpkeg]

Think the safest favorite on the card is Maia over Sonnen and waiting to see if line drops b/c Sonnen seems to be garnering some interest around the net. The fact that Sonnen seems so willing to use his wrestling and take fights to the ground despite the deficiencies in his submission defense will most likely be his doom here. And even if he does everything in his power to keep this fight standing, I am real high on Maia ability to get it down. No one wants to go to the ground with this guy, yet no one has come close to stopping it even for one round. Unless Maia has a weak chin that we dont know about, I think this is a case of Sonnen only having a punchers chance of surviving.

 

[terpkeg]

Daley over Thompson 1u/1u - Got +125 yest., best out know is even on bodog. I just think that Daley's take down defense is going to be good enough to eventually hurt Thompson on the feet. Thompson is a good enough striker that he wont feel the need get the fight to the ground at all costs like allesio seemed too (which cost him as he burned himself out going for the td's) but it is going to be a mistake imo. I think Daley hurts him standing, not a huge fan at any - xxx, since Daley achillies been wrestlers.

 

[terpkeg]

Maia over Sonnen 4u/1.5u
Cobb over Etim 1.5u/3.3u

Leans on Koscheck/Thiago inside distance -230 and Hardy over Markham
-110

 

[terpkeg]

YTD 11-6 +9.4u

WEC 39
Garcia over Brown 1u/1.3u (+135 Bookmaker) - Honestly think Garcia should be the slight fav here. Despite flash ko of Faber, Garcia has better standup imo and although Brown might have slighly better td's, i dont see Garcia being sub'd.

Lean on Galvao +135 and Pierce -195 early, but want to watch some more footage.

 

[terpkeg]

Galvao is high level black belt, but just doesnt seem to use his bbj very effectively in mma matches. eventhough page is suseptible to sub, i can easily see him winning this fight by tko.

no play on galvao

 

[terpkeg]

Grove over Day 4u/2.4u - (-165 5dimes) - I really thought this would be -300 / -350 range. Not much time here, but i think a rededicated and focused Grove will be way too much for Day on the feet.

Anybody think differently, feel free to chime in.

 

[hardys4ever2000]

Grove over Day 4u/2.4u - (-165 5dimes) - I really thought this would be -300 / -350 range. Not much time here, but i think a rededicated and focused Grove will be way too much for Day on the feet.

Anybody think differently, feel free to chime in.

I think it depends on what kind of grove shows up, if he really is rededicated and everything he has a decent shot I wouldnt say lights out hes gonna won though. Day is a good fighter with a ground game and with stand up, he can win either way if hes not winning the fight on the feet he will take him to the ground and I think he has a pretty good shot of subbing grove. but i wont be touching this fight because of the uncertainty of grove.

 

[terpkeg]

WEC 39
Garcia over Brown 1u/1.3u (+135 Bookmaker) - Honestly think Garcia should be the slight fav here. Despite flash ko of Faber, Garcia has better standup imo and although Brown might have slighly better td's, i dont see Garcia being sub'd.

Jumped the gun on a bad number here but gonna back my play up w/
Brown by Dec .5u/2.9u(+586 5dimes ) - Although Brown may out grapple Garcia, he is tough to finsh. Question is whether 4+5 will be too much, only see tko late rd win for Brown as the only way i dont cash here.

 

[terpkeg]

Bodog has released odds for events thru May

One that really jumped out at me was Cole Miller -105 against Junie Browning. Hammered this one for 4u.

Other leans but want to do more work are:
Herman over Loiseau +110
McDonald over Quarry +105
Wiman over Stout +130
Mir over Lesnar +135
Cain over Cantwell -250
Rielly over Nelson -215
Soszynski over Stann -200

 

[terpkeg]

13-8 +14.1u

Hendersen over Roller 1u/1.7u - I think hendersen is a little more well rounded. Has good wrestling pedigree too, 2x NAIA champ, so he may be able to nuetralize Roller. I think this fight has a high outcome vairiance and should be closer to pick.

From this fight should be able to see if Roller is the real deal, or if just a good wrestler not ready for big time mma.

 

[terpkeg]

UFC 94
Silva over Leites 5u/1.8u (-280 bookmaker) Had to jump on this big. Book gives Silva 73% chance to win this fight. I just dont see how this isnt much higher. Some will say Silva looked a little disinterested last time out although it seemed to me like he was just trying to put on a show for the fans and dominated the fight. After hearing about it, i think he comes out for the kill. Despite Leites knocked down of MArquardt (where he quickly recovered), I have never seen much power from him in the UFC. The majority of his wins come by submission. In last 1.5 years he has sub'd McFedries (shocking) and won the controversial split decision over Marquardt who is the 2nd best MW imo, but he needed two point deduction (one of them very questionable late in the fight) to win a split decision. He was dominated imo. I dont see this surviving the first if Silva is focused during training.

Bet back on Leites at +425 for .5u profit.
Clearly think there is good value with Silva at -280, but great value in free $$$. Would like to enjoy the main event without such a large wager hanging out there.
Hard to justify Silva at the current price, as I think Leites should bring it. But, I do expect Silva to come at 100% and there is no way I would be against him.

 

[terpkeg]

13-8 +14.6u

UFC 97

McDonald over Quarry 2.5u/2.2u (-110 Bodog)
McDonald has great and underappreciated BJJ. He hald his own with Maia. Quarry imo is too one stiff and predictable. He will struggle when people dont slug it out with him. I expect McDonald to have a smart game plan, avoid serious damage and eventually get fight to mat.
At that point, I think he will have his way. Im gonna throw arm triangle by mid 2nd out there.

Wiman over Stout 1u/1.1u (+110 Bodog)
Wiman has trouble with wrestlers. They dont even bother matching Stout up with wrestlers. He reminds me of a small Hardonk. I think Wiman is more well rounded and can control the fight on the ground. He seems to let his ego take control and will stand and exchnge but he has shown a good chin in the UFC. I think this will be a close fight and liked Wiman much more at the +130 which i got a while back, but i still think he should be -125 or so.

Soszynski over Stann 2u/1.4u (-155 Bodog)
I took for 1u at -200 and then again at -155. Stann is another one dimensional striker imo and I think Soszynski will be able to control fight with grappling. Stann also coming of injury and it is his first fight on the big show. Barring lanfing big hook early, I see Soszynski by kimura in 1st.

Betting against 3 strikers.

 

[terpkeg]

Lambert at +475 seems high. He is on a three fight losing streak, but maybe the move back to 205 will snap him out of his funk. Cut could have been too much for someone who was heavyweight. He has power and Matyushenko looked old last time out. Patterson also had him rocked a bit early. Figure this would be more -200/-250, -675 is way too much imo.

Lambert over Matyushenko 2u/9.5u