YTD: 13-11 (+10.56)
UFC Fight Night 18 (April 1) picks:
*3.61 Gleison Tibau (-145)
Gleison is taking this fight on about a months notice, but I see him dominating. He is a monster at lightweight; by time he gets into the octagon he at about 183 lbs, and add to the fact that he's a terrific grappler spells bad news for Stephens. If Lauzon was able to get the fight to the ground, you better believe Tibau will get it there. Look for a submission in the first or second round.
1* Carmelo Marrero (+350)
This pick is all about value. I think Bader should take this fight, but looking at his past opponents this is a pretty big step-up in competition for him. Bader will not enjoy his usual size advantage in this fight, as Marrero was formerly a heavyweight, even defeating Cheick Kongo a few years ago. I think this fight will be close, and although I give the slight advantage to Bader, he is still relatively inexperienced and could come up short in this one.
2* Martin Kampmann (-115)
Kampmann is better in every aspect of the game in my opinion, although you could maybe argue that Condit has a very slight edge in his submission game. That won't be a factor in this fight, as Kampmann has never been submitted in any of his 16 professional fights, and he has faced some tough grapplers like Thales Leites, and even defeated him. Condit will have a reach advantage, but it won't matter as Kampmann has excellent stand-up, utilizing great footwork and head movement. This is also Condit's UFC debut, while it is Kampmann's 7th fight in the octagon. Kampmann is stronger, better in the stand up game, a better wrestler, and will not be submitted if it does hit the ground. I see him taking a 30-27 unanimous decision.