YTD: 8-4 (+10.38)
UFC Fight Night (2/7/09) picks:
5* Kurt Pellegrino (+180)
Taking this early as I expect the line to move. Emerson is a tough guy and has good experience facing quality opponents, but at 8-6 with his only real significant win coming over Manny Gamburyan (which was a 12 second ko) I don't see him taking out the always game Kurt Pellegrino.
I see Kurt pushing the pace, getting the fight to the ground and controlling Emerson for a late submission or a unanimous decision.
UFC Fight Night (2/7/09) picks:
5* Kurt Pellegrino (+180)
Taking this early as I expect the line to move. Emerson is a tough guy and has good experience facing quality opponents, but at 8-6 with his only real significant win coming over Manny Gamburyan (which was a 12 second ko) I don't see him taking out the always game Kurt Pellegrino.
I see Kurt pushing the pace, getting the fight to the ground and controlling Emerson for a late submission or a unanimous decision.
Additional pick:
3* Matt Grice
Both Matt Grice and opponent Matt Veach have solid wrestling backgrounds, but I definitely give the edge to Grice who was one of the greatest high school wrestlers in Oklahoma history, although a car accident cut his college career short.
This is also Grice's 3rd fight in the UFC, and his last one earned him "fight of the night" with a split decision win over the tough Jason Black. Veach seems to be doing well so far at 10-0 and has a good camp in the H.I.T. Squad training with guys like Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler. However, Veach has only been fighting for 18 months (although that isn't always a bad thing, see Jon Jones).
Pretty much the only thing that makes this a bit risky is the fact that Grice is coming off a year-long layoff. In the end, Grice takes a unanimous decision with his superior wrestling, and experience.
3* Matt Grice
Both Matt Grice and opponent Matt Veach have solid wrestling backgrounds, but I definitely give the edge to Grice who was one of the greatest high school wrestlers in Oklahoma history, although a car accident cut his college career short.
This is also Grice's 3rd fight in the UFC, and his last one earned him "fight of the night" with a split decision win over the tough Jason Black. Veach seems to be doing well so far at 10-0 and has a good camp in the H.I.T. Squad training with guys like Matt Hughes and Robbie Lawler. However, Veach has only been fighting for 18 months (although that isn't always a bad thing, see Jon Jones).
Pretty much the only thing that makes this a bit risky is the fact that Grice is coming off a year-long layoff. In the end, Grice takes a unanimous decision with his superior wrestling, and experience.
Additional pick:
3* Jake Rosholt (+160)
I absolutely love betting on elite collegiate wrestlers (I'm a bit biased coming from a wrestling background myself). Miller is tough with a solid submission arsenal, but has not beaten anyone with a wrestling pedigree such as Rosholt's, and his sole loss came from the solid wrestler, Mike Massenzio.
I see Rosholt controlling the fight, doing damage with effective ground and pound on top, staying out of submissions, and taking a decision.
3* Jake Rosholt (+160)
I absolutely love betting on elite collegiate wrestlers (I'm a bit biased coming from a wrestling background myself). Miller is tough with a solid submission arsenal, but has not beaten anyone with a wrestling pedigree such as Rosholt's, and his sole loss came from the solid wrestler, Mike Massenzio.
I see Rosholt controlling the fight, doing damage with effective ground and pound on top, staying out of submissions, and taking a decision.
I would like Rosholt a lot more if he wasn't so easy to hit in the face.
His debut made me believe that there's about 10 seconds of free punches to the face that his opponents can take advantage of every round. Given that he will most likely win in wrestler fashion (3 rounds lnp), this means 30 seconds of Rocky-like punishment. Does Miller have the power to put Rosholt out in this time? I don't know but +160 is an okay price. Not good enough for me to pull the trigger on but I may change my mind by tomorrow.
His debut made me believe that there's about 10 seconds of free punches to the face that his opponents can take advantage of every round. Given that he will most likely win in wrestler fashion (3 rounds lnp), this means 30 seconds of Rocky-like punishment. Does Miller have the power to put Rosholt out in this time? I don't know but +160 is an okay price. Not good enough for me to pull the trigger on but I may change my mind by tomorrow.
