MLB systems

rolltide · Aug 15, 2014

real decent over ump in texas so the LAA TT o5.5 is a go for me

HPU = Chris Guccione and HC and ...

SU:	42-33 (0.21, 56.0%)	avg line: -121.3 / 110.0	on / against: +$522 / -$826	ROI: +5.5% / -10.0%
OU:	47-25-3 (1.22, 65.3%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: +$1,970 / -$2,675	ROI: +24.0% / -32.3%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.9	9.0	0.6	2.7	7.0	9.9	5.4	6.4
Opp	4.7	9.1	0.6	3.0	7.5	9.9	5.0	6.7

rolltide · Aug 15, 2014

some pretty good player and team angles shown at http://sdqlconsultancy.com/

today's is a 19-0 angle for Greinke home win

savage55 · Aug 16, 2014

LAA screwed us. They should have scored 7 runs minimum.

rolltide · Aug 16, 2014

savage55 said:
LAA screwed us. They should have scored 7 runs minimum.

yeah, whatcha gonna do? left 2 on in 8th, 3 on in 9th and only got 1 run in 7th with 1st/3rd and no outs. shitty hitting with RISP

rolltide · Aug 16, 2014

Sat umps:
CLE u = 14-31-1 o/u spot with 5-22 o/u subset
MIA u = 16-35-2 o/u spot with 5-17-1 o/u subset
CHC u = 36-65-10 o/u spot with 14-35-3 o/u subset
NYY u = 11-48-2 o/u spot with 4-28 o/u subset incl 0-13 o/u in DAY

rolltide · Aug 16, 2014

SAT systems: - light day. likely only finding a way to play kershaw, maybe in double with Arsenal

Play ON big AL fav against starter off 1 good start was a play on BOS but I reworked it a bit to tighten it up to a 70%er and they are no longer a fit....

Oppose NL big dogs in a pitching duel (10-0 2014....play on LAD)

tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.259 and league = NL and AD and o:STDSERA <= 3.50 and STDSERA <= 3.50 ...

SU:	30-90 (-1.55, 25.0%)	avg line: 180.5 / -205.0	on / against: -$3,587 / +$2,842	ROI: -29.9% / +11.5%
OU:	54-59-7 (0.06, 47.8%)	avg total: 7.7	over / under: -$925 / -$70	ROI: -7.1% / -0.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.1	7.9	0.5	2.6	8.6	9.8	6.9	6.7
Opp	4.7	9.1	0.5	3.7	6.5	10.3	6.6	7.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 16, 2014		Sat	away	Brewers	Yovani Gallardo - R	Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw - L									170	6.0

play on home dog with a starter that K's a lot of hitters (unlikely i will play either of these)

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and ... and STDSERA > 1.95

SU:	235-220 (-0.11, 51.6%)	avg line: 118.7 / -129.0	on / against: +$5,489 / -$7,917	ROI: +12.1% / -13.5%
OU:	212-223-17 (0.45, 48.7%)	avg total: 7.7	over / under: -$2,830 / -$1,350	ROI: -5.8% / -2.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.0	8.4	0.6	3.0	7.7	9.7	6.5	6.7
Opp	4.1	8.7	0.6	3.3	8.0	9.2	5.9	7.1

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 16, 2014		Sat	home	Braves	Julio Teheran - R	Athletics	Sonny Gray - R									105	6.5
Aug 16, 2014		Sat	home	Twins	Phil Hughes - R	Royals	Yordano Ventura - R									105	7.5

rolltide · Aug 16, 2014

first EPL full stakes pick of the year .... have a small play on everton going right now.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=995750

ReBorn · Aug 16, 2014

Sorry about that Everton tie. Bad beat brotha. I tailed u on arsenal! Let's cash this!

ReBorn · Aug 16, 2014

Shit. Palace with the lead. I Honestly don't see arsenal scoring 3 this game.

ReBorn · Aug 16, 2014

That was huuuge!!!! Great goal in Xtra time. We got life!

gofigyur8 · Aug 17, 2014

rolltide. thanks for the atl, twins winners. its all in the numbers

rolltide · Aug 17, 2014

Sun umps:
MIA o7 = 27-7-1 o/u DAY games
MIN u8 = 17-43-2 o/u incl 5-16-1 o/u AL games
STL u7 = 20-53-3 o/u incl 2-8 o/u SUN getaway games

rolltide · Aug 17, 2014

Sun systems:

Play on poor hitting NL team with in-form pitcher vs terrible pitcher, 6-1 L7 (on CHC)

season >= 2007 and o:STDSERA >= 5.44 and o:league = NL and C and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.250...

SU:	66-22 (1.64, 75.0%)	avg line: -118.4 / 106.8	on / against: +$4,572 / -$4,906	ROI: +41.4% / -50.1%
OU:	39-41-7 (-0.01, 48.8%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$465 / -$190	ROI: -4.9% / -2.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.9	8.9	0.6	3.8	7.1	9.8	6.3	7.4
Opp	3.3	7.6	0.8	2.7	7.4	9.7	6.3	6.6

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 17, 2014		Sun	away	Cubs	Jake Arrieta - R	Mets	Rafael Montero - R									-117	7.0

play on fav, not a HR hitting team, off a lot of runs (on BOS)

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line ...

SU:	260-142 (1.07, 64.7%)	avg line: -121.1 / 111.1	on / against: +$9,123 / -$10,741	ROI: +18.7% / -26.3%
OU:	209-177-14 (0.61, 54.1%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: +$1,650 / -$5,160	ROI: +3.8% / -11.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.9	9.1	0.6	3.2	6.8	9.7	5.4	6.9
Opp	3.8	8.3	0.6	2.9	7.5	9.8	5.5	6.9

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 17, 2014		Sun	home	Red Sox	Joe Kelly - R	Astros	Collin McHugh - R									-135	8.5

play on AL fav vs 1-start pitcher (on BOS)

o:STDSERA > 0.00 and -145 > line >= -185 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and league = AL ....

SU:	167-55 (1.95, 75.2%)	avg line: -162.1 / 152.0	on / against: +$7,928 / -$8,478	ROI: +22.0% / -38.2%
OU:	100-111-10 (0.52, 47.4%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$2,060 / -$35	ROI: -8.6% / -0.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.4	9.5	0.5	3.5	6.2	9.7	6.6	7.3
Opp	3.4	7.8	0.6	2.5	8.1	9.1	6.9	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 17, 2014		Sun	home	Red Sox	Joe Kelly - R	Astros	Collin McHugh - R									-135	8.5

play on Home Dog with starter that K's a lot of hitters

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and 0.207 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.260 ...

SU:	236-220 (-0.11, 51.8%)	avg line: 118.8 / -129.1	on / against: +$5,589 / -$8,027	ROI: +12.3% / -13.6%
OU:	212-224-17 (0.44, 48.6%)	avg total: 7.7	over / under: -$2,935 / -$1,250	ROI: -6.0% / -2.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.0	8.4	0.6	3.1	7.7	9.7	6.5	6.8
Opp	4.1	8.7	0.6	3.3	8.0	9.2	5.9	7.1

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 17, 2014		Sun	home	Braves	Mike Minor - L	Athletics	Jon Lester - L									133	7.0

also wainwright in same spot as kershaw last night. dropped to 10-1 SU on year...

rolltide · Aug 17, 2014

playing around with some wainwright stuff. pulled this one out. was actually 20-1 before losing last 2 situations. it's his record after a quality start where he faced 28 or less hitters and opponent isn't elite....

starter = 'Adam Wainwright' and date > 20120912 and s:QS and s:SHF < 29 and o:WP < 60

SU:	20-3 (3.00, 87.0%)	avg line: -155.3 / 147.8	on / against: +$1,550 / -$1,535	ROI: +43.1% / -66.7%
OU:	12-10-1 (0.63, 54.5%)	avg total: 7.2	over / under: +$85 / -$225	ROI: +3.3% / -9.3%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.4	9.5	0.2	3.5	7.1	9.8	4.9	7.3
Opp	2.4	7.6	0.6	2.3	8.7	10.4	4.6	6.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 17, 2014		Sun	home	Cardinals	Adam Wainwright - R	Padres	Odrisamer Despaigne - R									-185	7.0

savage55 · Aug 17, 2014

Double STL with BOS?

gofigyur8 · Aug 17, 2014

rolltide- surprised that bal/cleavland u 71/2 did not come in your radar with hickox umping

rolltide · Aug 17, 2014

gofigyur8 said:
rolltide- surprised that bal/cleavland u 71/2 did not come in your radar with hickox umping

only spot i track him in is LGS for AL which he is only 3-3-1 L7 (active today). i know he's having a nice under year, 6-15, but it's a one year anomaly as he's not an under ump. the guys i track have long histories in certain situations or new guys (segal, basner for example) that i've seen call a few games.

hickox is nowhere near my radar for a waldo ump but has called 3 unders in his AL getaway games this year. I actually put him in line as one of the most fair umps in MLB history. rarely find a guy, side and total, 50/50 like he is for a career

also hate chasing lines and this one started at 8.5 and now is sitting 7.5

gofigyur8 · Aug 17, 2014

thanks for your insight. good info to know

rolltide · Aug 18, 2014

Mon ump:
KC over 8.5 +100 = 15-6 o/u avg over by 2.5 rpg ... #2 in MLB rpg for umps, and dead last in K's/game (opposing trend below)
- bunch of FGS tonight....

______________________________________________________

MON systems:

oppose avg hitting AL home dog after allowing 7+ and facing decent pitcher (KC)

HD and league = AL and Average(runs@team and season) <= 4.3 and po:runs >= 7 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2

SU:	81-175 (-1.68, 31.6%)	avg line: 128.4 / -139.9	on / against: -$7,361 / +$6,440	ROI: -28.7% / +18.0%
OU:	118-124-14 (0.46, 48.8%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$1,830 / -$575	ROI: -6.5% / -2.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.6	8.1	0.7	2.8	7.6	10.3	7.6	6.7
Opp	5.3	9.7	0.5	3.4	6.8	9.7	6.8	7.3

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 18, 2014		Mon	home	Twins	Trevor May - R	Royals	Jason Vargas - L									135	8.5

same as above, specific to game #4 in a series....(KC)

HD and league = AL and Average(runs@team and season) <= 4.3 and po:runs >= 7 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and SG = 4

SU:	0-16 (-4.25, 0.0%)	avg line: 130.3 / -142.9	on / against: -$1,600 / +$1,600	ROI: -100.0% / +70.0%
OU:	10-4-2 (2.50, 71.4%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: +$555 / -$715	ROI: +31.5% / -40.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.2	7.9	0.6	2.2	8.8	9.1	8.2	6.6
Opp	7.5	11.6	0.6	3.9	7.2	9.6	5.5	8.2

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 18, 2014		Mon	home	Twins	Trevor May - R	Royals	Jason Vargas - L									135	8.5

play under, big fav that doesn't hit many HR after big offense (sea u, kc u) - fav line must be -145 or worse (aka -145, -150, -155, etc)

tA(HR) <= 0.9068 and p:runs >= 8 and line <= -145 and date > 20130426

SU:	51-23 (1.07, 68.9%)	avg line: -174.8 / 160.2	on / against: +$1,167 / -$1,470	ROI: +9.0% / -19.9%
OU:	19-55-0 (-1.24, 25.7%)	avg total: 7.8	over / under: -$4,085 / +$3,380	ROI: -50.7% / +41.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.8	8.1	0.4	3.4	6.4	9.3	4.5	7.1
Opp	2.7	7.2	0.7	2.5	8.8	9.6	4.9	6.3

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 18, 2014		Mon	away	Mariners	Roenis Elias - L	Phillies	Jerome Williams - R									-157	8.5
Aug 18, 2014		Mon	away	Royals	Jason Vargas - L	Twins	Trevor May - R									-157	8.5

play on away team off 4-straight great pitching games (LAA)

A and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4 and opo:runs >= 8 ...

SU:	66-29 (1.37, 69.5%)	avg line: 103.6 / -115.3	on / against: +$4,439 / -$4,955	ROI: +41.2% / -41.8%
OU:	51-38-5 (0.92, 57.3%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: +$1,040 / -$1,865	ROI: +10.2% / -17.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.2	9.6	0.5	3.3	7.3	9.6	6.1	7.0
Opp	3.8	8.0	0.6	2.9	7.3	10.2	6.0	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 18, 2014		Mon	away	Angels	CJ Wilson - L	Red Sox	Brandon Workman - R									-125	9.5

play on PIT, over, and/or team total over in FGS home after road trip (7-0 SU with no rest)

team = Pirates and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and H and season >= 2013 and date < 20140901

SU:	14-3 (2.88, 82.4%)	avg line: -136.9 / 126.4	on / against: +$977 / -$1,027	ROI: +41.5% / -59.7%
OU:	13-4-0 (2.47, 76.5%)	avg total: 7.4	over / under: +$850 / -$1,055	ROI: +45.6% / -56.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	6.4	10.8	0.5	3.1	6.1	11.8	4.4	7.1
Opp	3.5	8.4	0.4	2.8	7.6	9.4	4.1	7.2

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 18, 2014		Mon	home	Pirates	Vance Worley - R	Braves	Ervin Santana - R									-113	7.0

gofigyur8 · Aug 18, 2014

would this be a play on pitt also or just total

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