MLB systems

rolltide · Aug 11, 2014

ReBorn said:
Anyone know when umps are posted? Jesus,...I feel like that annoying kid waking up his parents at 6am to open Xmas presents hahaha

everything up until 10pm are already posted and no sighting. so either in SD, SEA, on vacation, or in a game #1 on Tue

speaking of vacation looking for eddings u as well. he was on vacation last week but should be ready to go for a series this week

varkeyboy said:
So the plays should be: Mets OVER, Cardinals OVER, Rockies OVER? Thanks in advance RT!

sure, go with those

savage55 · Aug 11, 2014

Roll

Eddings is in Miami at 3B so he will be HPU tomorrow right?

rolltide · Aug 11, 2014

savage55 said:
Roll

Eddings is in Miami at 3B so he will be HPU tomorrow right?

no, they rotate clockwise

savage55 · Aug 11, 2014

Ok then Thursday or Friday he should be HPU and it will be either LGS or FGS

rolltide · Aug 11, 2014

rolltide said:
Mon systems...

play OVER in last game of series after a 5+ run comeback win...average over by 2+ runs per game.

LGS and p:W and op:biggest lead >= 5 and season > 2010

SU: 21-17 (0.92, 55.3%) avg line: -121.9 / 110.1 on / against: -$25 / -$203 ROI: -0.5% / -4.9%
RL: 20-18 (0.21, 52.6%) avg line: 116.0 / -130.9 on / against: +$642 / -$821 ROI: +14.1% / -14.7%
OU:
28-9-1 (2.11, 75.7%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$1,890 / -$2,225 ROI: +46.6% / -51.6%

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Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB
Team 5.8 10.2 0.6 3.2 7.8 9.6 5.7 6.9
Opp 4.8 8.9 0.4 3.2 7.4 8.4 5.3 6.9

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Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Aug 11, 2014 Mon home Phillies David Buchanan - R Mets Jon Niese - L 115 8.0

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play on low-HR hitting team off 8+ runs scored. this system is on 8 game winning streak right now but historically the worst spot is first game of series

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and date > 20100901

SU: 257-140 (1.08, 64.7%) avg line: -121.1 / 111.0 on / against: +$9,072 / -$10,675 ROI: +18.9% / -26.4%
RL: 210-185 (0.14, 53.2%) avg line: 132.1 / -146.8 on / against: +$9,612 / -$11,964 ROI: +21.0% / -19.0%
OU: 207-175-13 (0.61, 54.2%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$1,670 / -$5,160 ROI: +3.9% / -11.8%

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Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB
Team 4.9 9.1 0.6 3.2 6.7 9.7 5.4 6.9
Opp 3.8 8.3 0.6 2.9 7.5 9.8 5.5 6.9

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Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Aug 11, 2014 Mon away Cardinals Shelby Miller - R Marlins Tom Koehler - R -107 7.5
Aug 11, 2014 Mon home Padres Jesse Hahn - R Rockies Jordan Lyles - R -150 6.5

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SD actually no longer fits these parameters as price has gone above -150 (see query) however it puts them into another system which is to play under when these weak offensive teams have a single game outbreak and are now priced at or above -145 favorites...obviously i'll wait on ump to be shown before i play under as i won't play under with basner as HPU

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and line <= -145 and date > 20130426

SU:	52-23 (1.07, 69.3%)	avg line: -176.7 / 161.5	on / against: +$1,267 / -$1,570	ROI: +9.5% / -20.9%
RL:	32-43 (-0.43, 42.7%)	avg line: 120.2 / -130.5	on / against: -$381 / +$14	ROI: -5.0% / +0.1%
OU:	20-55-0 (-1.21, 26.7%)	avg total: 7.8	over / under: -$3,985 / +$3,270	ROI: -48.8% / +39.2%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.8	8.1	0.5	3.4	6.4	9.4	4.5	7.1
Opp	2.8	7.3	0.7	2.5	8.7	9.5	4.9	6.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 11, 2014		Mon	home	Padres	Jesse Hahn - R	Rockies	Jordan Lyles - R									-160	6.5

rolltide · Aug 11, 2014

just to note that SD side isn't exactly in a bad spot, nearly 70% winners and 109.5% ROI... but i would never play both a side and an under at a 6.5 line. either one or the other

rolltide · Aug 11, 2014

shit i forgot to run the FGS games after long home/road trips.

Padres after returning to pitcher friendly Petco .... also 1-6 o/u off a 5-game trip

team = Padres and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and H

SU:	57-52 (0.14, 52.3%)	avg line: -120.7 / 109.1	on / against: -$226 / -$309	ROI: -1.6% / -2.5%
RL:	38-40 (0.44, 48.7%)	avg line: 109.4 / -124.1	on / against: -$46 / -$484	ROI: -0.5% / -4.4%
OU:	41-64-4 (-0.08, 39.0%)	avg total: 7.3	over / under: -$2,895 / +$1,875	ROI: -24.5% / +15.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.7	7.6	0.6	3.3	7.2	10.4	7.6	6.7
Opp	3.5	7.9	0.5	3.1	7.9	9.7	7.9	7.1

Date	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Line	Total
Sep 15, 2014	Mon	home	Padres		Phillies
Aug 25, 2014	Mon	home	Padres		Brewers
Aug 11, 2014	Mon	home	Padres	Jesse Hahn - R	Rockies	Jordan Lyles - R	-160	6.5

oppose Miami back home after road trip and losing LGS

team = Marlins and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and pppp:A and ppppp:A and H and season >= 2008 and p:L and line >= -145

SU:	9-25 (-1.68, 26.5%)	avg line: 102.6 / -113.2	on / against: -$1,857 / +$1,694	ROI: -48.1% / +40.9%
RL:	9-25 (-1.76, 26.5%)	avg line: 121.5 / -134.3	on / against: -$1,555 / +$1,426	ROI: -40.2% / +28.7%
OU:	18-12-4 (0.46, 60.0%)	avg total: 7.9	over / under: +$485 / -$780	ROI: +13.0% / -20.8%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.4	7.5	0.6	3.6	8.0	8.6	7.4	7.4
Opp	5.0	9.5	0.4	3.1	8.7	9.6	6.4	7.3

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 11, 2014		Mon	home	Marlins	Tom Koehler - R	Cardinals	Shelby Miller - R									-103	7.5

rolltide · Aug 11, 2014

early system for Tue game...

bet UNDER Arizona FGS road after home stand...

team = Diamondbacks and p:H and pp:H and ppp:H and pppp:H and ppppp:H and A...

SU:	30-42 (-0.85, 41.7%)	avg line: 125.3 / -137.8	on / against: -$565 / +$230	ROI: -7.4% / +2.3%
RL:	25-25 (-0.40, 50.0%)	avg line: -146.2 / 131.7	on / against: -$1,097 / +$711	ROI: -14.3% / +12.9%
OU:	17-49-6 (-1.06, 25.8%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$3,620 / +$3,010	ROI: -46.1% / +37.6%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.2	7.7	0.5	3.1	7.5	9.6	7.2	7.1
Opp	4.0	8.4	0.4	3.4	7.4	9.8	8.3	7.2

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	away	Diamondbacks	Josh Collmenter - R	Indians	TJ House - L									146	8.5

rolltide · Aug 12, 2014

ump play, under 8 LA/ATL...
waldo search, over in Basner....

________________________________________________

oppose avg hitting AL teams against decent pitcher after allowing 7+ (oppose TEX) ... 19-7 in 2014 including 5-1 when opposing texas

HD and league = AL and Average(runs@team and season) <= 4.3 and po:runs >= 7...

SU:	78-174 (-1.74, 31.0%)	avg line: 128.5 / -140.0	on / against: -$7,601 / +$6,707	ROI: -30.2% / +19.0%
RL:	106-113 (-0.20, 48.4%)	avg line: -133.6 / 121.9	on / against: -$4,467 / +$3,156	ROI: -15.0% / +13.9%
OU:	117-122-13 (0.47, 49.0%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$1,695 / -$675	ROI: -6.1% / -2.4%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.6	8.1	0.7	2.8	7.6	10.3	7.6	6.7
Opp	5.3	9.7	0.5	3.5	6.8	9.7	6.8	7.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	home	Rangers	Nick Tepesch - R	Rays	Jeremy Hellickson - R									115	9.0

play ON low HR-hitting teams off big offensive game...

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and date > 20100901

SU:	257-141 (1.07, 64.6%)	avg line: -121.0 / 110.9	on / against: +$8,967 / -$10,575	ROI: +18.6% / -26.1%
RL:	210-186 (0.13, 53.0%)	avg line: 132.3 / -146.9	on / against: +$9,512 / -$11,864	ROI: +20.7% / -18.8%
OU:	208-175-13 (0.62, 54.3%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: +$1,770 / -$5,260	ROI: +4.1% / -12.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.9	9.1	0.6	3.2	6.7	9.7	5.4	6.9
Opp	3.8	8.3	0.6	2.9	7.5	9.8	5.5	6.9

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	home	Mariners	Chris Young - R	Blue Jays	JA Happ - L									-123	7.5
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	home	Pirates	Edinson Volquez - R	Tigers	Robbie Ray - L									-122	8.0

play ON AL fav, good team, vs good 1-start pitcher...

0.215 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and FC and -215 <= line <= -134 and oS:SRA <= 1 and league = AL ...

SU:	253-110 (1.42, 69.7%)	avg line: -158.0 / 146.2	on / against: +$8,180 / -$9,445	ROI: +14.3% / -26.0%
RL:	160-170 (-0.14, 48.5%)	avg line: 130.2 / -141.9	on / against: +$3,545 / -$5,521	ROI: +10.7% / -11.8%
OU:	160-188-15 (0.22, 46.0%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$5,435 / +$1,075	ROI: -13.4% / +2.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.1	9.3	0.5	3.6	6.1	9.6	7.1	7.2
Opp	3.6	8.1	0.7	2.8	7.9	9.5	7.6	6.6

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	home	Orioles	Wei Yin Chen - L	Yankees	Shane Greene - R									-143	8.5
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	away	Athletics	Jon Lester - L	Royals	Jeremy Guthrie - R									-145	7.5

Steiner69eR · Aug 12, 2014

Thanks, Roll.

varkeyboy · Aug 12, 2014

Dodgers UNDER 8
D’Rays OVER 9

Correcto? Thanks Roll.

Steiner69eR · Aug 12, 2014

^He is not going to answer. Interpret the data and headings, he's made it clear what his analytics are pumping out today.

varkeyboy · Aug 12, 2014

Steiner69eR said:
^He is not going to answer. Interpret the data and headings, he's made it clear what his analytics are pumping out today.

Sorry, I'm retarded.

savage55 · Aug 12, 2014

varkeyboy said:
Dodgers UNDER 8
D’Rays OVER 9

Correcto? Thanks Roll.

Varkey when his systems put out a total he will specify total or ump play.. Otherwise its a side. Take a good look at those figure he posted and it should be pretty clear his plays are Oak, Bal, TB, Sea,Pit and Under in ATL, Under in AZ game and if Toby Basner is HPU in any game take the over..

rolltide · Aug 12, 2014

A's on an impressive streak after a loss in same series...12 straight wins by avg of more than 4 runs per game

team = Athletics and p:L and p:line < 100 and SG > 1 and date > 20140526

SU:	12-0 (4.67, 100.0%)	avg line: -151.0 / 136.4	on / against: +$1,220 / -$1,240	ROI: +66.4% / -100.0%
RL:	12-0 (3.67, 100.0%)	avg line: 108.3 / -119.6	on / against: +$1,478 / -$1,561	ROI: +106.7% / -100.0%
OU:	7-3-2 (2.54, 70.0%)	avg total: 7.6	over / under: +$355 / -$470	ROI: +26.5% / -36.2%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	7.4	10.2	0.7	4.0	7.2	9.2	3.9	6.1
Opp	2.8	7.2	0.6	2.1	7.5	8.7	5.4	6.0

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 12, 2014		Tue	away	Athletics	Jon Lester - L	Royals	Jeremy Guthrie - R									-145	7.5
Aug 02, 2014	box	Sat	home	Athletics	Jon Lester - L	Royals	Jason Vargas - L	8-3	5	W	3.5	O	9-10	0-1	7-1	-180	7.5	9
Jul 29, 2014	box	Tue	away	Athletics	Jeff Samardzija - R	Astros	Scott Feldman - R	7-4	3	W	3.0	O	11-6	0-0	3-3	-200	8.0	9
Jul 26, 2014	box	Sat	away	Athletics	Sonny Gray - R	Rangers	Nick Tepesch - R	5-1	4	W	-3.0	U	7-7	1-1	4-1	-190	9.0	9
Jul 23, 2014	box	Wed	home	Athletics	Jesse Chavez - R	Astros	Brad Peacock - R	9-7	2	W	8.5	O	13-10	1-0	7-0	-260	7.5	9
Jul 20, 2014	box	Sun	home	Athletics	Sonny Gray - R	Orioles	Kevin Gausman - R	10-2	8	W	4.5	O	15-3	3-1	9-0	-165	7.5	9
Jul 10, 2014	box	Thu	away	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Giants	Tim Hudson - R	6-1	5	W	0.0	P	10-6	1-0	6-0	-115	7.0	9
Jun 25, 2014	box	Wed	away	Athletics	Brad Mills - L	Mets	Zack Wheeler - R	8-5	3	W	5.5	O	11-11	0-0	8-0	-118	7.5	9
Jun 17, 2014	box	Tue	home	Athletics	Tommy Milone - L	Rangers	Yu Darvish - R	10-6	4	W	9.0	O	13-8	1-2	5-1	100	7.0	9
Jun 14, 2014	box	Sat	home	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Yankees	Hiroki Kuroda - R	5-1	4	W	-1.0	U	8-3	1-0	4-0	-155	7.0	9
Jun 11, 2014	box	Wed	away	Athletics	Tommy Milone - L	Angels	Jered Weaver - R	7-1	6	W	0.0	P	10-10	0-1	6-0	120	8.0	9
Jun 08, 2014	box	Sun	away	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Orioles	Ubaldo Jimenez - R	11-1	10	W	3.5	O	10-6	0-1	10-0	-130	8.5	9
May 28, 2014	box	Wed	home	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Tigers	Anibal Sanchez - R	3-1	2	W	-3.0	U	5-6	0-0	2-1	-125	7.0	9

XSPower · Aug 12, 2014

Good luck tonight!!!!

amarp21 · Aug 12, 2014

hey roll good to see you here

good luck

rolltide · Aug 13, 2014

umps:
ARI/CLE - doubleheader today...play UNDER in the game Muchlinski does
MIL - only play if you have supporting evidence but Fagan is a killer right now for home teams (5-20 L25). I won't play unless there's a system on MIL (running those next) which there is not
HOU under - Hoye (i'd play u8 +100 vs u8.5 -125) - not a big fan of this game but Gibson has been awesome after a bad start so i'll bite. L7 non-quality starts opponent has scored 1-1-2-0-1-4-0

avoid bad hitting AL dogs after allowing 7+ (oppose KC)

HD and league = AL and Average(runs@team and season) <= 4.3 and po:runs >= 7 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2

SU:	79-174 (-1.73, 31.2%)	avg line: 128.4 / -139.9	on / against: -$7,491 / +$6,587	ROI: -29.6% / +18.6%
RL:	107-113 (-0.19, 48.6%)	avg line: -133.7 / 121.9	on / against: -$4,367 / +$3,056	ROI: -14.6% / +13.4%
OU:	117-123-13 (0.45, 48.8%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$1,815 / -$575	ROI: -6.5% / -2.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.6	8.1	0.7	2.8	7.6	10.3	7.6	6.8
Opp	5.3	9.7	0.5	3.5	6.8	9.7	6.8	7.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 13, 2014		Wed	home	Royals	Yordano Ventura - R	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L									105	7.5

play on AL avg hitting fav vs opponent starter off 1 good start (on TB)

o:STDSERA > 0.00 and -145 > line >= -185 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and league = AL and os:SRA <= 1 ...

SU:	167-55 (1.95, 75.2%)	avg line: -162.1 / 152.0	on / against: +$7,928 / -$8,478	ROI: +22.0% / -38.2%
RL:	116-96 (0.40, 54.7%)	avg line: 127.5 / -139.0	on / against: +$5,156 / -$6,466	ROI: +24.3% / -21.9%
OU:	100-111-10 (0.52, 47.4%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$2,060 / -$35	ROI: -8.6% / -0.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.4	9.5	0.5	3.5	6.2	9.7	6.6	7.3
Opp	3.4	7.8	0.6	2.5	8.1	9.1	6.9	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 13, 2014		Wed	away	Rays	Chris Archer - R	Rangers	Miles Mikolas - R									-147	9.0

play on AL fav off a win after struggling against this pitcher in last h2h (23-7 in 2014)

0.215 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and FC and -215 <= line <= -134 ... and p:W

SU:	146-65 (1.58, 69.2%)	avg line: -160.2 / 148.1	on / against: +$4,243 / -$5,035	ROI: +12.6% / -23.9%
RL:	95-101 (0.03, 48.5%)	avg line: 130.5 / -142.1	on / against: +$2,258 / -$3,481	ROI: +11.4% / -12.5%
OU:	90-110-11 (0.17, 45.0%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: -$4,040 / +$1,040	ROI: -16.7% / +4.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.0	9.3	0.6	3.7	6.4	9.6	7.3	7.3
Opp	3.5	7.9	0.7	2.8	7.9	9.3	7.4	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 13, 2014		Wed	home	Mariners	Hisashi Iwakuma - R	Blue Jays	RA Dickey - R									-155	7.0

cordial · Aug 13, 2014

rolltide...thank you...BOL...

rolltide · Aug 13, 2014

ump add now that a cincy line is up.

HPU = Jerry Meals and H and DAY ... and total >= 7.5

SU:	23-23 (-0.28, 50.0%)	avg line: -117.8 / 106.3	on / against: -$348 / +$52	ROI: -5.9% / +1.0%
RL:	20-25 (-0.50, 44.4%)	avg line: 111.4 / -123.3	on / against: -$482 / +$320	ROI: -9.3% / +5.3%
OU:	30-11-5 (1.36, 73.2%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: +$1,830 / -$2,215	ROI: +36.5% / -43.3%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.8	8.8	0.7	3.6	7.0	9.9	7.0	7.2
Opp	5.1	8.5	0.5	3.7	7.8	9.8	6.1	6.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 13, 2014		Wed	home	Reds	Mike Leake - R	Red Sox	Anthony Ranaudo - R									-135	7.5

another over ump, Segal, is in SF but haven't taken anything yet. Only once in Peavy's last 12 starts has hit team scored more than 3 runs and Giants are 2-12-2 o/u L16 vs a lefty at home this year

speaking of team trends the Padres are now 4-20-2 o/u vs LHP this year including 1-7-1 o/u at home. another shot today

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