MLB systems

[ReBorn]

Jesus. Hey roll,...u must do some serious homework hahaha. Appreciate the time u put in though!

 

[rolltide]

One more question I'm so sorry man. In the Orioles game u are saying take the under?

yes...151 situations only 46 went over. i usually prefer to wait for the ump to be announced to avoid a guy like segal or meals in first game of series but i'm not around this evening so i bet it now

 

[DogDaze]

Meals has the SD/PIT game tonight.

 

[savage55]

Roll knows his stuff guys.. u will make money if u pay attention

 

[Daheavy1]

Nice job RT! Keep those winners coming
Almost a perfect night. Hard to follow trends the way Masterson has been pitching

 

[Vallon]

Thanks rolltide.

 

[varkeyboy]

Sick.

 

[morri1962]

.cheersgifThankyou)(& &

 

[rolltide]

Saturday systems...

play on a bad hitting NL team after getting blown out....cards are 4-0 this year in this situation

league = NL and Average(runs@team and season) <= 3.8 and (po:runs > 10 or p:margin <= -10) and ...
SU: 58-25 (0.66, 69.9%) avg line: 111.8 / -124.2 on / against: +$4,496 / -$5,016 ROI: +47.6% / -45.0% RL: 55-26 (1.13, 67.9%) avg line: -110.7 / -101.5 on / against: +$3,034 / -$3,399 ROI: +28.7% / -33.8% OU: 39-35-8 (0.27, 52.7%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$85 / -$820 ROI: +1.0% / -9.0% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.4 8.4 0.6 3.0 7.4 9.8 5.6 6.7 Opp 3.7 8.3 0.6 3.1 7.6 9.6 5.6 7.2 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 09, 2014 Sat away Cardinals John Lackey - R Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez - R -107 8.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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same AL fav system that spit out Mariners yesterday...24-5 sweet spot today with the fav having a winning % under 45

... -145 > line >= -185 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and league = AL ...d WP < 45
SU: 24-5 (2.17, 82.8%) avg line: -161.0 / 151.0 on / against: +$1,616 / -$1,666 ROI: +34.7% / -57.4% RL: 12-13 (0.22, 48.0%) avg line: 130.6 / -142.9 on / against: +$260 / -$406 ROI: +10.4% / -11.3% OU: 9-19-1 (0.33, 32.1%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$1,165 / +$875 ROI: -37.2% / +26.9% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.2 9.0 0.4 3.8 6.0 9.4 5.9 7.6 Opp 3.0 7.3 0.7 2.0 9.3 9.3 7.4 6.0 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 09, 2014 Sat away Rangers Yu Darvish - R Astros Scott Feldman - R -167 7.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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-145 > line >= -185 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and league = AL and os:SRA <= 1 and STDSERA < 5.20 ...
SU: 167-53 (2.00, 75.9%) avg line: -162.3 / 152.1 on / against: +$8,245 / -$8,775 ROI: +23.1% / -39.9% RL: 116-94 (0.45, 55.2%) avg line: 127.4 / -139.0 on / against: +$5,356 / -$6,666 ROI: +25.4% / -22.8% OU: 99-110-10 (0.53, 47.4%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$2,055 / -$10 ROI: -8.6% / -0.0% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.4 9.6 0.5 3.5 6.1 9.7 6.6 7.2 Opp 3.4 7.8 0.6 2.5 8.0 9.1 7.0 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 09, 2014 Sat away Rangers Yu Darvish - R Astros Scott Feldman - R -167 7.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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play on AL home team in summer pitching duel. 6-1 2014

league = AL and 1 < STDSERA + o:STDSERA < 5 and HC and total <= 9 ... 8 >= month >= 6
SU: 59-20 (1.30, 74.7%) avg line: -128.5 / 116.0 on / against: +$4,000 / -$4,251 ROI: +37.3% / -48.9% OU: 40-34-5 (0.82, 54.1%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$200 / -$965 ROI: +2.3% / -11.3% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.1 9.3 0.7 3.3 6.7 10.1 7.6 6.9 Opp 3.8 8.1 0.6 2.6 7.5 9.5 7.1 6.4 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 09, 2014 Sat home Yankees Brandon McCarthy - R Indians Corey Kluber - R -106 7.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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....no ump plays

 

[sunshine11]

Good work!

 

[RDTrains]

With Hondo on the Tribe (see Rubber Room) I'm liking NY even more.

 

[rolltide]

Sunday systems...

missed segal in zona last night....hudson a decent over guy for day games in seattle today. not sure if i'll play it

Bill Miller at home plate on getaway day:

HPU = Bill Miller and LGS and H ...
SU: 23-15 (0.29, 60.5%) avg line: -138.6 / 124.1 on / against: +$396 / -$611 ROI: +7.2% / -15.0% RL: 18-20 (-0.50, 47.4%) avg line: 122.4 / -137.8 on / against: +$115 / -$339 ROI: +2.7% / -6.1% OU: 7-30-1 (-1.08, 18.9%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: -$2,490 / +$2,245 ROI: -61.1% / +52.5% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.8 8.6 0.4 2.8 7.2 9.1 7.6 6.8 Opp 3.6 7.9 0.6 2.2 7.8 8.8 7.1 6.0 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 10, 2014 Sun home Blue Jays Mark Buehrle - L Tigers David Price - L 130 8.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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solid spot for a cuzzi under...

HPU = Phil Cuzzi and H... and league = NL ... total >= 7
SU: 25-23 (-0.29, 52.1%) avg line: -139.5 / 125.4 on / against: -$343 / +$136 ROI: -4.9% / +2.6% RL: 17-31 (-0.85, 35.4%) avg line: 115.1 / -127.2 on / against: -$1,466 / +$1,238 ROI: -26.5% / +18.6% OU: 12-34-2 (-1.24, 26.1%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$2,505 / +$2,045 ROI: -48.0% / +38.3% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.4 7.4 0.6 3.2 8.3 9.6 7.4 6.7 Opp 3.7 7.7 0.6 3.5 8.7 9.0 7.1 7.0 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 10, 2014 Sun home Braves Alex Wood - L Nationals Gio Gonzalez - L -110 7.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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under after 1-run win when opposing starter pitched great

p:margin = 1 and po:SIP >= 8 ... date > 20090601
SU: 68-84 (-0.40, 44.7%) avg line: -100.5 / -110.4 on / against: -$1,759 / +$983 ROI: -10.1% / +5.4% RL: 74-77 (-0.18, 49.0%) avg line: -114.7 / 101.5 on / against: -$1,538 / +$842 ROI: -7.5% / +4.4% OU: 47-100-5 (-0.49, 32.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$6,210 / +$4,755 ROI: -37.5% / +28.2% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 3.6 8.0 0.6 3.0 7.2 9.3 6.5 6.7 Opp 4.0 8.5 0.5 2.9 7.1 9.9 6.3 6.7 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 10, 2014 Sun home Blue Jays Mark Buehrle - L Tigers David Price - L 130 8.0 <tbody> </tbody>

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take good AL team vs an opponent off 1 good start (16-4 2014 ... rubby a weird pitcher though. can be unhittable or erratic)

... and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and league = AL and os:SRA <= 1 and STDSERA < 5.20 ... and p:W
SU: 100-29 (2.22, 77.5%) avg line: -161.7 / 151.6 on / against: +$5,394 / -$5,684 ROI: +25.9% / -44.1% RL: 71-51 (0.58, 58.2%) avg line: 127.6 / -139.3 on / against: +$3,957 / -$4,782 ROI: +32.4% / -28.1% OU: 62-62-4 (0.80, 50.0%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$570 / -$730 ROI: -4.1% / -5.1% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.6 9.8 0.5 3.8 6.2 9.7 6.5 7.5 Opp 3.4 7.9 0.6 2.4 8.2 8.9 7.0 6.5 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 10, 2014 Sun home Angels Hector Santiago - L Red Sox Rubby De La Rosa - R -157 8.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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have smaller ones on Dbacks and Mets as well...but jays under main bet today

 

[rolltide]

not a bad one for yankees. 23-1 with 22 wins by 2+ after getting shutout and playing in either game #2/3 of a series

team = Yankees and p:runs = 0 and 1 < SG < 4 and line < 110 and season > 2007
SU: 23-1 (3.62, 95.8%) avg line: -162.9 / 145.9 on / against: +$2,175 / -$2,223 ROI: +55.2% / -90.7% RL: 22-2 (2.75, 91.7%) avg line: -112.7 / -100.4 on / against: +$2,234 / -$2,366 ROI: +72.7% / -82.6% OU: 11-13-0 (-0.02, 45.8%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: -$290 / +$100 ROI: -11.1% / +3.7% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 6.4 10.0 0.2 3.6 7.1 10.0 7.8 6.6 Opp 2.8 7.4 0.8 2.5 7.1 10.0 7.0 6.6 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 10, 2014 Sun home Yankees Hiroki Kuroda - R Indians Carlos Carrasco - R -145 8.5 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

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[Steiner69eR]

Thanks for your insight, Roll. Always appreciate and look forward to seeing your models.

 

[Steiner69eR]

Thanks for the Braves under. Looking forward to see what tomorrow brings.

 

[rolltide]

Mon systems...

play OVER in last game of series after a 5+ run comeback win...average over by 2+ runs per game.

LGS and p:W and op:biggest lead >= 5 and season > 2010 SU: 21-17 (0.92, 55.3%) avg line: -121.9 / 110.1 on / against: -$25 / -$203 ROI: -0.5% / -4.9% RL: 20-18 (0.21, 52.6%) avg line: 116.0 / -130.9 on / against: +$642 / -$821 ROI: +14.1% / -14.7% OU: 28-9-1 (2.11, 75.7%) avg total: 8.5 over / under: +$1,890 / -$2,225 ROI: +46.6% / -51.6% <tbody> </tbody> Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 5.8 10.2 0.6 3.2 7.8 9.6 5.7 6.9 Opp 4.8 8.9 0.4 3.2 7.4 8.4 5.3 6.9 <tbody> </tbody> Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 11, 2014 Mon home Phillies David Buchanan - R Mets Jon Niese - L 115 8.0 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody> <tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

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play on low-HR hitting team off 8+ runs scored. this system is on 8 game winning streak right now but historically the worst spot is first game of series

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and date > 20100901
SU: 257-140 (1.08, 64.7%) avg line: -121.1 / 111.0 on / against: +$9,072 / -$10,675 ROI: +18.9% / -26.4% RL: 210-185 (0.14, 53.2%) avg line: 132.1 / -146.8 on / against: +$9,612 / -$11,964 ROI: +21.0% / -19.0% OU: 207-175-13 (0.61, 54.2%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$1,670 / -$5,160 ROI: +3.9% / -11.8% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 4.9 9.1 0.6 3.2 6.7 9.7 5.4 6.9 Opp 3.8 8.3 0.6 2.9 7.5 9.8 5.5 6.9 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings Aug 11, 2014 Mon away Cardinals Shelby Miller - R Marlins Tom Koehler - R -107 7.5 Aug 11, 2014 Mon home Padres Jesse Hahn - R Rockies Jordan Lyles - R -150 6.5 <caption> </caption><thead> </thead><tbody role="alert"> </tbody>

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will run the rest later....database having some server issues it appears

 

[rolltide]

only ump on watch for FGS is Toby Basner. He's #3 in runs per game & #6 in BB given per game and his career O/U in waldo position below

HPU = Toby Basner and H and SG < 3
SU: 6-5 (1.27, 54.5%) avg line: -132.2 / 122.2 on / against: -$33 / -$10 ROI: -2.2% / -0.9% RL: 4-7 (0.32, 36.4%) avg line: 133.8 / -147.4 on / against: -$186 / +$138 ROI: -15.7% / +8.2% OU: 10-1-0 (3.68, 90.9%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$885 / -$1,015 ROI: +73.4% / -83.2% <tbody> </tbody>
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Ground Balls Fly Balls Team LOB Team 6.5 9.8 1.0 4.4 7.8 11.9 5.0 8.5 Opp 5.2 8.9 1.1 3.2 7.3 10.6 5.1 7.1 <tbody> </tbody>

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[TyBounce]

Muchos appreciatamos. Bowling^&%

 

[Scott602]

Let's bang these OVERS.. Thanks Rolltide

 

[ReBorn]

So which game is Toby umping?