MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Weeks Not So Weak After All
Rickie Weeks finally NOT living up to his name highlights this week’s Week That Was.



Before jumping into the baseball news, I just wanted to make sure you all know that Colton and the Wolfman has changed timeslots. We are now on Tuesdays from 10pm-1am ET on SiriusXM (Sirius 210, XM 87). This week we will break down the SiriusXM hosts draft that can be heard live on the station from 7-10pm ET (right before us).



Ok, now back to business . . . .



Rickie Weeks: Rickie Weeks went 3-4 with two runs Friday night. Since July 1, Weeks has played like his old self, raking at a .297 clip with six homers and 17 RBI. This presents a major buying opportunity in roto leagues. Call the Weeks owner in your league and carp about his .218 overall average and 125 K’s and get a player who is much better than his year-long stats. After all, talent and ability were never the question with Weeks, only his affinity for the DL. Buy!



Bryce Harper: Bryce Harper has hit a predictable skid. The kid is a huge talent but rough patches were to be expected. Those in keeper leagues, keeping Harper until about 2030 is a no brainer. However, in re-draft leagues, monitor the situation carefully as he could start sitting more often. Of course, this only matters to mixed leaguers as Harper is a must play in NL only leagues.



Danny Valencia: The Red Sox recalled Danny Valencia to take the roster spot of Will Middlebrooks. Obviously, the loss of Middlebrooks is a tough break (no pun intended) for both the Sox and fantasy owners. Frankly, I am surprised Valencia flopped this year. Last year, in his first full season, he hit 15 HR with 72 RBI on a bad Twins team in a terrible hitter's park. Moving to Boston with the short porches and the lineup protection could be just what the doctor ordered. Worth a speculation bid, especially in AL only leagues.



Huston Street: Huston Street went on the DL again, and thus proved again the Wolfman’s maxim -- injury prone players get injured. Street, who is on the shelf for the second time this year, has been great when active posting a .75 ERA and an incredible .53 WHIP. However, he IS on the shelf again. Who gets the all-important saves in SD? My money is on Dale Thayer. During Street’s first visit to disabled land, Thayer notched 5 saves with respectable ratios. At this point in the season, it is well worth gambling big FAAB money on the probable Padre closer.



Brandon McCarthy: Brandon McCarthy was solid in his return from the DL, allowing three runs and six hits in six innings. If you own McCarthy, you gotta get him active. It is not easy to find pitchers with 2.68 ERAs who pitch for a hot team and in a pitchers park. Yes, he is injury prone and yes there is a fair chance he hits another bump, but at this point of the roto season, you have to gamble. Would I bet on McCarthy throwing 200 innings in a season any time soon? No. Would I want him for the final month and a half this year? You bet.



Jim Henderson: The Jim Henderson as closer show might have come and gone all before weekly leagues got to make free agent bids. After notching two saves, Henderson was roughed up Saturday. Then on Sunday, Ron Roenicke bypassed not only Henderson, but also KRod and Axford, and called on Kameron Loe for the save. I cannot see Henderson getting a substantial save tally this year. Guys who stay in the minors for 10 years often are there for a reason. As to whether Loe can keep the job? Probably not. Look for Axford to regain the job soon. In the meantime, it is anyone’s guess what will happen tomorrow.



Mark Rogers: Mark Rogers looked strong Friday, giving up just one run on three hits over seven innings while striking out eight. While I do not love the matchup against the Rockies Wednesday in Colorado, I do like Rogers and recommend him for the stretch run -- especially in NL only leagues. 20 K in 17 innings is a good start to the year. Add in the fact that Rogers last full minor league season resulted in a K/inning stat line. Buy -- especially if you can stash him on reserve for the Coors Field start.



James McDonald: James McDonald was bad again Friday giving up 7 runs on 7 hits over 4 1/3 innings to the light hitting Padres. Jimmy Mac, who was a stud in the first half, has been putrid in the second half (8.71 ERA over six starts since the All-Star break). Those in mixed leagues have to cut bait. Those in deep NL only leagues really do not have a choice but to hold. However, if getting smacked by the Pods is any indication, it looks like the Mac magic has magically disappeared.



Ichiro Suzuki: Ichiro Suzuki had that big stat line his owners have been waiting for, going 2-5 with 5 RBI Friday. The bottom line on Ichiro for the rest of 2012 is not complicated -- he will be better than he was in Seattle if nothing else, because his team is better, his park is better and he is in a pennant race. However, don’t don those rose colored Ichiro glasses any time soon. He is not close to the player he once was and the pinstripes will not be a fountain of youth. Buy but with realistic expectations.



Tommy Milone: In what is a good news/bad news situation, Tommy Milone will be skipped in the A’s rotation and make his next start Friday at home against the Indians. Of course, the bad news is the skipped start but getting to pitch in the big park in Oakland against the struggling Indians next week is exactly what roto owners look for. Milone has been very, very good this year. However, he could easily tire and wear down in the dog days of August and pennant race of September. I am still high on Milone but I will be watching for warning signs carefully. Note the mixed bag recently -- even though his last three starts have been pretty poor, he still has a 15/2 K/BB ratio in those starts.



And last and but not least, this from the Baron of the Bottom of the Page -- Schultz says: “One of the lesser publicized adages in the rotisserie baseball world is to stay away (or at least not go all-in) on any big name that changed teams in the off-season. For the most part, this seems to be sage advice and anyone who invested heavily in Carl Crawford last year should be nodding along knowingly. Personally, Schultz (yep, third person this week) thinks it's because most athletes like to celebrate a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract signing by taking the first year of it off. Cynicism aside, it does seem that having a new home locker, a different attendant and a new routine tends to throw talented athletes off their game. Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder all induced a feeling of schadenfreude from anyone that didn't have a roto-interest in their success. Why was Reyes flirting with the Mendoza line? Where's Prince's power? Oh my, 10 years of Pujols looking lost in LA? Well, hopefully you didn't get cold feet and bail. After his 26 game hitting streak, Reyes is now at .285 and hitting homers and stealing bases at the pace that could be reasonably expected. With his recent power surge, Prince Fielder is quietly heading towards a 35 HR, 120 RBI season while hitting north of .310. Pujols? Well, he's once again heading for the .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI season that is just the norm for Phat Albert.


What should you take away from this for 2013? Let someone else be the one to invest heavily in any significant player to move teams. When they get off to a slow start and all the criticism starts, pounce and get yourself a bargain.


Speaking of bargains, two of the hottest hitters in baseball were probably on the waiver wire as much as four weeks ago. Perennial minor leaguer Justin Ruggiano refuses to LaHair himself and regress to the norm. In only 160 at bats (a modest sample size, he's slugged 10 HRs and driven in 25 but it's his .350 batting average that's a bit eye-popping. Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, perennial $1 player Ryan Ludwick slugged his 20th homer Friday afternoon and has shown no indication that he will tail off that pace. Neither are fantastic options to build around for 2013, but for a final sprint to the finish in 2012, why not play the hot hands? Same goes for Paul Maholm, who has completely forgotten that he's Paul Maholm. Rather, he's acting like he's Ryan Vogelsong. The nerve.”



Response: Wish I could pick on Schultzie this week but I cannot. His analysis of big names in new homes is right on the money. Nice work!

 

[HacheMan]

Manny Mania Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado swear it’s not this easy. Breaking into the big leagues, that is.

Alas, through four games and 16 plate appearances, there’s Machado, hitting .375/.375/1.125 with three home runs, five extra-base hits and seven RBI.

This, after he hit .266/.352/.438 for Double-A Bowie before his recall. And there’s your first clue. It really isn’t this easy. Machado is a special, special player, and 19/20 year olds almost never hit that well in Double-A. But as we noted on Thursday, a .266/.352/.438 line still doesn’t denote major-league readiness. Or at least, you know, superstar readiness.

So how to explain Machado’s scorching start? A sudden jump in skill? A newfound energy after growing stagnant on the farm? Luck?

How about bad pitching? Yes, any MLB hitter worth his salt will punish bad pitching, but Machado’s been punishing really bad pitching.

Take the triple he roped in his Thursday debut. It came against rookie Royals lefty Will Smith, the owner of a 5.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Smith has particularly struggled against right-handed hitters.

Then came Machado’s two-homer Friday. His victim? Luke Hochevar, one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season (and the past few seasons, for that matter). Hochevar has served up 16 home runs in 130 1/3 innings, and posted a 5.85 ERA in 32 1/3 frames since the All-Star break. His 5.32 ERA is tied for eighth worst among all qualifying starters. Bad, hittable pitching. I mean, seriously, just look at these pitches.

Then we have Machado’s Saturday double. Again, a mediocre Royals starter was his enabler, this time Luis Mendoza.

Which finally brings us to Sunday, where Machado socked his third home run. Yes, his third in just four games since making his MLB debut. It's a remarkable accomplishment, no matter the competition. But like his previous four extra-base hits, it came against an awful Royals starter, in this case, the honorable Bruce Chen.

Chen has been even worse than his teammate Hochevar this season, getting knocked to the tune of a 5.56 ERA in 134 1/3 innings of work. He’s allowed an ugly 23 home runs along the way.

For the final time, this is not to say that what Machado has done isn’t impressive. It is, extremely so. But it’s also created unreasonable expectations and a false pattern that’s in no way sustainable. We’re talking about a player who hit only 11 home runs in 109 games before he was summoned to Baltimore.

Now if Machado keeps hitting this way against the Red Sox and Tigers this week? Then maybe we’re onto something. But for now, consider his hot start what it is: incredibly good hitting against incredibly bad pitching.

Machado is a gifted young player, one of the best in professional baseball. But his prodigious start has much more to do with the level of competition than his raw skill. A shrewd fantasy owner might realize as such and sell high.

More Strasburg Confusion

Which brings us to a young player whose major-league dominance has been anything but ambiguous. The owner of a 2.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, Stephen Strasburg has fanned 166 hitters in 133 1/3 innings. That comes out to an 11.21 K/9, which is second to only Max Scherzer (nevermind the fact that Scherzer has a 4.65 ERA).

It’s real tangible, dominance from the 24-year-old former No. 1 overall pick.

Only the Nationals’ plan for him is anything but tangible. It’s muddled, ill thought out and potentially fungible.

The latest report, via beat writer Bill Ladson, is that Strasburg is “expected” to miss 2-3 regular starts, but that his innings limit is not “set in stone.” And, oh yeah, he’s unlikely to pitch in the postseason regardless of the Washington’s fate.

The only problem — that is, aside from Strasburg’s murky and ever-changing supposed innings limit — it’s not entirely clear when these fabled 2-3 missed starts will come to pass. This week? The end of the season? Whenever Strasburg hits his unknowable limit?

Provided there isn't a mysterious case of "lower-back stiffness," the end of the season is, of course, most likely. But only time and more unsourced reports will tell for sure. If you can get a fair return for Strasburg, move him. If frightened fellow owners are low-balling you, stick with your No. 1 starter into the great unknown, and hope for the best.

Game Notes: Neil Walker went 5-for-5 with a home run, double and two RBI. The five-hit day was his second of 2012. … Ryan Howard continued to unthaw, homering for the third time in five games. … Jesus Montero had the first two-homer game of his career, single-handedly sending Jered Weaver to just his second loss. … Weaver’s counterpart, meanwhile, tossed his ninth consecutive quality start. No, not Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas. In nine outings since June 26, Vargas has posted a 1.88 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 43/16 K/BB ratio in 67 innings. … Adrian Gonzalez homered, doubled and drove in four runs against the Indians. He’s now hitting .393 with 35 RBI in 28 games since the All-Star break. This, after he entered the Midsummer Classic batting .283/.329/.416 with “just” 45 RBI in 86 games. … Josh Hamilton went deep for the third time in four games. Perhaps he’s finally putting his horrendous June/July behind him. … Phil Hughes got rocked. … So did Corey Kluber. … Jon Lester fanned 12, Chris Sale 11. … Chris Capuano and Johnny Cueto both threw eight innings of shutout ball. … Yu Darvish issued five walks, giving him at least four in five of his past six outings. … Nick Markakis hit his fifth home run in 15 games.

Short Hops: An MRI revealed damage behind Lance Berkman’s left knee. That’s not the same knee that’s already landed him on the disabled list twice this season. The Big Puma has vowed to return, but with roster spots growing ever more precious as the playoffs fast approach, Berkman is droppable in fantasy leagues. … Franklin Gutierrez (concussion) suffered another setback. Sadly, the odds are strongly stacked against him returning this season. … The Padres signed Mark Kotsay to a one-year contract extension for some reason. … Denard Span exited Sunday’s loss with a right shoulder injury, but X-rays came back negative. He’s day-to-day. … Eric Chavez (back) expects to return this evening. … Brandon Inge (shoulder) is slated for an MRI, and likely headed for a stint on the disabled list. … CC Sabathia (elbow) is targeting an August 24 return to the Yankees rotation. … The Indians released Jose Lopez.

 

[HacheMan]

Heads Up

The Padres resisted the urge to trade Chase Headley at last month’s deadline. Since then, he’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball.



Headley slugged his 19^th home run in Monday’s win over the Braves while also adding an RBI single. He’s well on his way to winning National League Player of the Month honors for August, as he’s batting a robust .348 with seven homers and 21 RBI in just 12 contests.



But, while this is certainly an especially hot streak for Headley, he’s been a threat at the plate all season long. The 28-year-old is sporting a .277/.370/.465 batting line for the year, as he trails only Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez and David Freese in OPS among third basemen (and, thus, is ahead of the likes of Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman and Alex Rodriguez). Headley has already easily set career highs in home runs (19) and RBI (73) and is currently on pace to finish with 26 bombs and 101 RBI.



Keep in mind that Headley is putting up these numbers while playing half his games at Petco Park. He’s certainly a different hitter at home, batting a pedestrian .265/.347/.393 in San Diego, with just five of his 19 longballs coming there. It’s interesting that Headley is showing this power outburst despite posting a career-high 50% groundball rate. Perhaps he’s just coming into his own as a hitter, as he’s also walked more times than ever this season after showing signs last year of that skill blossoming.



Headley will be an interesting one to watch over the offseason, as the Padres are likely to receive plenty of inquiries on him. He’s under team control through 2014, but the team could be willing to ship him elsewhere given that they have Jedd Gyorko ready to assume third base. They’d surely receive quite a bundle for a guy that’s in his prime and under team control for two more years.



Profar Not Far Away?



Mike Olt and Manny Machado were surprisingly called up recently, and it appears that another young stud might be on his way to the big leagues.



T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reported Monday that the Rangers are considering promoting shortstop Jurickson Profar from Double-A Frisco soon. Ranked by Baseball America at midseason as the best position prospect in the minor leagues, Profar blasted his 14^th home run of the season Monday and is now batting .285/.363/.470 for Frisco this season to go along with 15 stolen bases. Keep in mind he’s doing this as a 19-year-old.



Bumping Profar from Double-A to the big leagues (just as they did with Olt) would certainly be an aggressive move by the Rangers, especially since he wouldn’t be in line for everyday playing time. But, there are only 20 games left in Frisco’s season, so it’s not as if Profar would miss out on a ton of developmental time. He would provide the team with middle infield depth and another bench player, as they’ve played with only three bench guys the last few games.



It’s unlikely Profar would have much fantasy value if called up this season, but he’s obviously a must-have in keeper formats. If your league requires that a player has to be on the 25-man roster before they can be added for keeper purposes, you’ll want to keep a close eye on the Rangers’ plans in the coming days.











National League Quick Hits: The Nationals are expected to shut down Stephen Strasburg before he makes his final 2-3 starts of the season, and the young right-hander will not participate in the playoffs. John Lannan would be the obvious choice to replace him in the rotation ... Ian Desmond (oblique) went through a full workout Monday and is recovering faster than expected. The Nats are expected to have a better idea of when he can return by Wednesday ... Jeff Samardzija struck out 11 Astros batters while tossing seven innings of one-run ball Monday. He holds a 2.66 ERA while striking out 56 over 47 1/3 innings since the beginning of July ... Dale Thayer closed out the Padres’ win over the Braves Monday and looks like the guy to own for saves in San Diego while Huston Street is on the shelf ... Placido Polanco (back) is expected to return from the disabled list this weekend but will not be the everyday third baseman, as he’ll share time with Kevin Frandsen ... Cole Hamels spun his second straight shutout Monday against the Marlins and now boasts a 2.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP for the season ... Drew Pomeranz might not be able to make his next start due to left biceps soreness.



American League Quick Hits: Jose Bautista (wrist) took some dry swings and hit off a tee Monday without any issues. He’s now back on track following a setback and should rejoin the Blue Jays’ lineup before the end of the month ... Adam Dunn knocked a pair of solo home runs in Monday’s loss to the Blue Jays, putting him back in the major league home run lead ahead of Josh Hamilton ... Anibal Sanchez was lit up by the Twins Monday, surrendering five runs on 12 hits and a walk over 5 1/3 innings. The American League has welcomed Sanchez rudely, as he holds a 7.97 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in four outings for his new team ... Sanchez isn’t the only one struggling with the transition from the NL to the AL, as Ryan Dempster was pummeled for eight runs on nine hits over six frames in a loss to the Yankees Monday. Dempster has allowed 16 runs over his first three starts with the Rangers ... Carlos Villanueva’s move from the bullpen to the rotation has gone swimmingly, as he held the White Sox to one run on just five hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings Monday. He boasts a 3.04 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 50/14 K/BB ratio over 47 1/3 innings since joining the starting five ... Ben Zobrist started at shortstop Monday for the fourth time in the last five games and is expected to continue to play there regularly down the stretch. He should gain eligibility at the position in most fantasy leagues shortly ... C.J. Wilson exited his start Monday after trying to knock down a comebacker with his pitching hand, but he’s expected to be fine.​

 

[HacheMan]

Calculated waiver-wire risks

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Wacky things can happen during a quarter-season.

There's that phrase: "Quarter-season." We've got about that amount of schedule remaining in the 2012 regular season; to be mathematically exact, there is 29 percent of the season yet to be played. But for these purposes, let's officially say that we've reached the sample size of the year we call the "stretch run."


If you've been paying attention, surely you know what can happen in 47 games' time -- that being the average number of games remaining for every team. During one 47-game (team games) stretch earlier this year, Josh Hamilton hit five more home runs (20 total) and drove in 12 more runs (53) than any other player in baseball. During another, R.A. Dickey had 10 more strikeouts (84 total), an ERA nearly a quarter of a run lower (1.33) and as many wins (8) as anyone in the game.


And those are all facts about known quantities. What about utter surprises over a similar time span? To illustrate, let's turn the calendar back one year, and reveal some of the more unexpected standouts from this date through season's end: Doug Fister had a major league-leading 0.65 ERA. Javier Vazquez, given up as done earlier in the year, had 58 K's and a 1.40 ERA. Heck, Mike Minor managed a 3.32 ERA and 40 K's in a seven-start audition.


Yes, you can catch "lightning in a bottle" in August and September, just as you can in April or May. With the trade deadline officially behind us in ESPN standard leagues, taking chances on such lottery tickets is often the best way to inject some life into a struggling roster. Watch that waiver wire!


This isn't to say that anyone listed below is even close to being a sure thing. Heck, the very definition of such players is that the odds of success are low. Their statistical ceilings, however, are considerably higher than similarly valued players. Picking one could give you an out-of-nowhere top-30 fantasy starting pitcher … or you might be cutting him in a week, only to seek the next such candidate.


Here are the rules for these "lightning in a bottle" picks: Every one of these players is available in a minimum of 70 percent of ESPN leagues. Every one, too, could be a top-30 starter from today forward if he catches every single break.


<!-- begin player card -->

Derek Holland

#45 SP
Texas Rangers

2012 STATS

• GM19
• W7
• L6
• BB37
• K95
• ERA4.92

<!-- end player card -->

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers: He's one of the most known quantities on the list, having been tabbed the No. 61 starting pitcher in ESPN drafts this preseason, but has struggled through a terribly disappointing campaign, his 4.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP noticeably higher than the 4.45 ERA and 1.32 WHIP major league averages for starting pitchers. He also has only a 4.66 ERA in seven starts since returning from shoulder fatigue in July. Still, hidden in Holland's performance have been some bright spots, and a few underlying factors that hint at some unlucky breaks: His 2.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio is his best in any of his four big league seasons to date, his 4.05 FIP isn't far removed from his 3.86 mark in 2011 (when his ERA was 3.95) and he has a 67.7 left on base percentage that ranks 15th lowest among pitchers who qualify for the ERA title.


Holland has 28 K's compared to eight walks in his past four turns, during which time he was facing a challenging portion of his schedule (BOS, LAA, @KC, DET), so perhaps he's only improving in the command department. Here's something else to like looking forward: His remaining schedule (@NYY, BAL, MIN, @CLE, @KC, CLE, @LAA, @SEA, LAA, OAK). After that start at Yankee Stadium, Holland's toughest remaining matchup is either of those Los Angeles Angels games, and in either case, because they're so far off, he could be shuffled to avoid those and double up on either the Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners or both. Keep throwing strikes, Derek, because you might yet finish this year on a high note.


<!-- begin player card -->

Kris Medlen

#54 RP
Atlanta Braves

2012 STATS

• GM41
• W3
• L1
• BB17
• K52
• ERA2.28

<!-- end player card -->

Kris Medlen, Atlanta Braves: The only reason he's not getting more love -- from me included -- is the impending return of Tommy Hanson from the disabled list. But with Medlen pitching as well as he has as a starter, going at least five innings and allowing only one run in each of his past three starts, the Braves would be foolish to demote him now. There is already chatter of a six-man rotation, being that the Braves are six days into a stretch of 19 consecutive games without a day off, and besides, there shouldn't be any fewer questions about veteran Ben Sheets' durability over the remainder of the year than about Medlen's.


Consider that in 17 starts combined between 2010, before his Tommy John surgery, and 2012, since it, Medlen has a 3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 3.90 K-to-walk ratio, numbers that any team, contenders included, could find a place for in the rotation. He should only improve in terms of velocity and command as he continues on the comeback trail, and has the kind of balanced splits -- .639 lifetime OPS allowed to left-handed hitters, less than the .729 he has allowed to righties -- and high ground ball rate (51.7 percent in 2012) that make him a low-risk bet regardless of matchups. The risk you take is that Medlen is bullpen-bound in a week or two. But of any of these names, Medlen might be the most likely to develop into lightning.


<!-- begin player card -->

Bud Norris

#20 SP
Houston Astros

2012 STATS

• GM21
• W5
• L9
• BB50
• K125
• ERA4.93

<!-- end player card -->

Bud Norris, Houston Astros: Well, at least he'll face little pressure the remainder of the year. The Astros are going nowhere, they're not generating much attention on an individual-player perspective and their remaining schedule isn't especially treacherous as they're members of the National League Central. Wins, naturally, will be a problem for Norris. That's his limitation in fantasy.


But Norris remains one of the more intriguing, low-cost strikeout artists in the game, his 9.20 K's-per-nine ratio seventh best among qualified starters and his 23.3 percent K rate (calculated off total batters faced) 17th best, making him a sort of "Brandon Morrow of the NL." Norris' ratios might be worrisome, but in his defense, he has a 3.46 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in managing quality starts in three of his past four outings, and his 4.13 FIP is well within range of the 4.02 he posted in 2011, when his ERA was 3.77. At some point, the 27-year-old Norris might finally break through, turning his strikeout ability into full-fledged ERA-WHIP-K's prowess. What easier time to do it than when no one is paying attention?


<!-- begin player card -->

Jaime Garcia

#54 SP
St. Louis Cardinals

2012 STATS

• GM11
• W3
• L4
• BB19
• K51
• ERA4.48

<!-- end player card -->

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals: As a result of the shoulder injury that has kept him on the disabled list since June 6, Garcia has been utterly forgotten in fantasy, now owned in only 26.7 percent of ESPN leagues. It's understandable, as at the time he got hurt there were legitimate questions about whether his season was done.


Garcia's rehabilitation reports, however, have been positive, and he has 12 K's compared to zero walks in 12 innings across three rehab starts. He threw 75 pitches in his most recent outing, Aug. 9 for Double-A Springfield, so he might be only one or two more minor league appearances away from activation. As for what Garcia might do upon his return, remember that he has a 3.45 career ERA, and his 2.81 FIP in 11 starts before getting hurt belied his 4.48 ERA. He also has a 2.58 career ERA at Busch Stadium, meaning at the minimum he should be a viable fantasy option in his remaining home games.


Tyler Skaggs, Arizona Diamondbacks: How about a prospect? Skaggs is one of the best remaining in the minors, among those with a legitimate shot of claiming a big league rotation spot before the Sept. 1 roster expansion, having earned a No. 9 midseason prospect ranking by Keith Law. Skaggs has also thrived since his promotion to Triple-A Reno, going 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 2.93 K-to-walk ratio in eight starts, each of the past three of them a quality start.


Keep in mind the difficulty at that competitive level, comparative to the rest of the minor leagues: The Pacific Coast League, in which Reno plays, is one of the most hitter-friendly in all of professional baseball. Reno, in fact, has a 4.95 ERA as a team this season. Fantasy owners might remember the comparative failure of fellow Diamondbacks prospect Trevor Bauer; Skaggs' prospect status really wasn't far off Bauer's to begin the season and to expect a repeat is unfair. Maybe Skaggs will struggle, as Bauer did. Maybe he won't be promoted at all. But if he is, based upon reputation and minor league performance this season, doesn't Skaggs have a chance at making a run at the top 30?



TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clay Buchholz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Fiers, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jarrod Parker, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Sheets, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wei-Yin Chen, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kris Medlen, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Marco Estrada, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Maholm, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ross Detwiler, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Liriano, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Diamond, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Blanton, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Patrick Corbin, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Cobb, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Quintana, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bronson Arroyo, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Straily, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Karstens, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Richard, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Homer Bailey, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Buehrle, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Feldman, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harvey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edinson Volquez, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Villanueva, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Hochevar, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Streamer's delight



Among streaming starter -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- options for the upcoming week, here are my picks by day:


Tuesday, August 14: Lucas Harrell at Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, August 15: Justin Germano versus Houston Astros
Thursday, August 16: Kris Medlen versus San Diego Padres
Friday, August 17: Hisashi Iwakuma versus Minnesota Twins
Saturday, August 18: Patrick Corbin at Houston Astros
Sunday, August 19: Clayton Richard versus San Francisco Giants
Monday, August 20: Kevin Correia at San Diego Padres


Past picks
Tuesday, August 7: Ross Detwiler -- QS, 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Wednesday, August 8: Clayton Richard -- W, QS, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Thursday, August 9: Mike Leake -- QS, 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Friday, August 10: Erik Bedard -- W, 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K (pitched Aug. 12)
Saturday, August 11: Marco Estrada -- 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sunday, August 12: Patrick Corbin -- W, QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Monday, August 13: Alex Cobb -- W, QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K


Week's total: 7 GS, 4 W (57.1%), 5 QS (71.4%), 45 IP, 34 H, 15 ER, 12 BB, 33 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Season total: 119 GS, 51 W (42.9%), 63 QS (52.9%), 718 1/3 IP, 687 H, 311 ER, 241 BB, 535 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP


Three up



Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: He's back. Halladay's numbers since his return from a strained lat muscle look much like those from his Cy Young-caliber years: Five starts, 3.38 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and he's riding a streak of three consecutive quality starts. But dig deeper: He has an 8.16 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio, a 23.4 percent K rate (calculated as a percentage of total batters faced) and a 9.67 K's-per-walk ratio during those five turns; he had an 8.05 K's-per-nine, 22.5 percent K rate and 6.47 K's-per-walk ratio from 2009 to 2011 combined. Halladay's skills should no longer be questioned; the most significant difference between his 2009 to 2011 model and the one we'll see these next two months is the potency of the offense supporting him. To compare, since the trade deadline the Phillies have averaged 3.62 runs per game with .238/.312/.396 triple-slash rates; they averaged 4.74 runs per game with .257/.330/.418 rates from 2009 to 2011 combined. "Diminished win potential" is about the only reason he's not already back among the top five.


Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox: It was only one start, and one against the Cleveland Indians -- they've averaged 3.42 runs per game with .236/.303/.369 rates since the All-Star break -- but it was Lester's reliance upon the cutter that restores hope for the stretch run. Per ESPN Stats & Information, seven of his 12 K's were on cutters, his most in any start in the past four seasons, and he threw the pitch a season-high 37 percent of the time and 54 percent with two strikes. Here's why that's so important: Since the beginning of 2009, Lester has thrown cutters 21 percent of the time and limited opponents to .218/.276/.303 rates with a 28 percent miss rate on swings and 249 total strikeouts. It's one of his most valuable pitches, and so long as he continues to throw it so often and effectively, he might yet make a run at top-25 starting pitcher status from this point forward.


Paul Maholm, Atlanta Braves: He has made only two starts for his new team, the Braves, and they both came against middling-to-poor offenses (Houston Astros, New York Mets), but in them Maholm has shown every bit the skills improvements that he exhibited previously for the Chicago Cubs. Most notably: He has limited right-handed hitters to .170/.200/.340 triple-slash rates, even better than the .240/.306/.388 numbers he had in 21 starts for the Cubs, those leaps and bounds better than his stats against them during his first six career seasons. Maholm continues to generate ground balls at a healthy rate -- 50.5 percent in 2012, and greater than 50 percent in each of the past three seasons -- and his balanced splits make him a lower-risk bet than is the general perception.


Three down



James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates: I've asked it before and will ask again, where the heck did the James McDonald of the first half of this season go? There isn't a pitcher out there with a starker contrast between his half-seasons; he had 12 quality starts and a 2.37 ERA in 17 first-half starts, but has only one quality start -- only meeting the minimums -- and an 8.71 ERA in six second-half starts. What's worse, McDonald failed to reach quality-start minimums in matchups with the Cubs, Astros or San Diego Padres, matchups his first-half self would've dominated. Even with only two walks in his past two outings combined, he has 21 walks compared to 26 K's in 31 innings since the All-Star break. McDonald's command has effectively deserted him, and that the Pirates continue to give Kevin Correia spot starts in a six-man alignment is a concern. Frankly, as poorly as McDonald has pitched, he might not be far off a demotion to the bullpen or a premature end to his season, the team perhaps deciding to give him some rest.


CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: Twice in a four-week span he has landed on the disabled list, leaving the Yankees' pitching staff vulnerable at a difficult time, and his fantasy owners in a tough spot with a little less than two months to play. Granted, Sabathia had four quality starts, a 3.89 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 9.09 K's-per-nine ratio in five starts between his DL stints, but it's fair to wonder whether his workload during his Yankees career might finally be catching up to him. As of the day he returned to the DL (this past Saturday), he was the major league leader in innings (1,420&frac23, starts (205) and pitches thrown (21,775) since the beginning of 2007 (postseason included). Plus, remember that last season he made only four appearances in the Yankees' final 29 games, and when he signed his new contract last November, the team added a clause regarding a 2017 contract option related to the health of his shoulder. This isn't to say Sabathia's career is about to slide off the rails, but there are legitimate questions about whether he can still be a top-10 fantasy starter even after his projected Aug. 24 return.


Johan Santana, New York Mets: Speaking of workload concerns, presenting the case of Johan Santana. On June 1 he threw a no-hitter, the first in Mets history, the importance of that game in the franchise's history enough to coax manager Terry Collins to break from his traditionally careful management of Santana's workload. On that day Santana threw 134 pitches, the most by any individual all year … and since then he has only three quality starts, a 7.98 ERA, .328 batting average allowed and 11 home runs allowed in nine appearances. He also had a disabled list stint mixed in there, and was pummeled for eight runs on eight hits in 1&frac13; innings in his first start back this past Saturday. Santana's most recent outing shouldn't be used as the barometer for the outings he has remaining, but it also underscores the downside of a pitcher who might be tiring following a completely lost 2011 and 20 starts so far in his comeback this season. Keep him reserved until he shows some of the magic he did the first half of the year.

 

[HacheMan]

A More Consistent Kuroda
The Cardinals’ two-year, $26 million free agent agreement with National League MVP candidate Carlos Beltran looks like the steal of the offseason, but Hiroki Kuroda’s one-year, $10 million pact with the Yankees can’t be too far behind.

The Japanese right-hander was a force again Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, stifling a dangerous Rangers lineup over nine shutout innings as New York pushed its American League-leading record to 69-47 with a 3-0 victory. Kuroda struck out five batters and surrendered just two hits while improving to 11-8 on the year. He has a 3.06 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 121/38 K/BB ratio over 159 total frames this season, and has been especially locked in since the beginning of the second half.

There were worries that Kuroda, with his calm and relaxed demeanor, might struggle under the bright lights of the American League East. And there were times earlier this season where he looked a little overmatched. But it would be silly to go on caring about such trivial talking points. Kuroda has made it quite clear this summer that he can pitch anywhere and in any matchup, and he should remain a must-start down the stretch in fantasy leagues as the Yankees look to capture their third division title in four years.

Kuroda will face the Red Sox next. He held them to two runs over eight innings last time out.



We Need Moore, Moore, Moore

Rays left-hander Matt Moore entered the 2012 campaign soaked from head to toe in warranted hype after striking out 210 batters in 155 innings between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham in 2011. It took a little while, but the youngster is finally meeting the kind of expectations that are naturally generated by such gaudy numbers.

Moore struck out nine batters and issued only one walk across seven innings of one-run ball Tuesday night in a no-decision against the Mariners (the Rays would wind up losing 3-2). He threw 70 of his 95 pitches for strikes, showing excellent command of his high-90s fastball while featuring plenty of sharp curves and changeups.

The 23-year-old former eighth-round pick has yielded just four earned runs in his last 32 2/3 innings -- which comes out to a ridiculous 1.102 ERA -- and boasts a 34/8 K/BB ratio in that span.

Moore has the goods to be an ace in this league -- not eventually, but right now -- and should dominate over the next several weeks. Tampa Bay is currently clinging to an American League Wild Card spot.



National League Quick Hits: Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia (shoulder) is expected to return from the disabled list Sunday to face the Pirates … Madison Bumgarner allowed just one run on five hits in a complete-game victory Tuesday night against the first-place Nationals ... Chad Billingsley tossed eight shutout innings Tuesday in the Dodgers’ blowout win over the Pirates … Marlins catcher Rob Brantly went 0-for-3 in his major league debut Tuesday versus the Phillies … Troy Tulowitzki (groin) has been cleared for all baseball activities but still has no official recovery timetable … Mat Latos fired seven innings of scoreless ball in Tuesday night’s defeat of the Mets … Pirates outfielder Travis Snider remains day-to-day with a tweaked right hamstring … Ian Desmond (oblique) is on track to be activated from the 15-day disabled list on Friday … Cardinals center fielder and new leadoff man Jon Jay is suddenly batting .315 with a .392 on-base percentage … Carlos Gonzalez went 4-for-4 with a run scored and two RBI in a victory over the Brewers on Tuesday … The Mets are likely to give Johan Santana and Chris Young extra days of rest down the stretch … Rockies left-hander Drew Pomeranz has been scratched from his scheduled Wednesday start due to chest soreness … Michael Cuddyer (oblique) began a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Colorado Springs and should return to the Rockies on Thursday … The Nationals could make prospect Anthony Rendon a surprise September call-up … The Pirates may move struggling starter James McDonald to the bullpen … Scott Rolen has missed five straight games because of back discomfort … Braves starter Ben Sheets has admitted to feeling general soreness … Veteran left-hander Brian Fuentes is not expected to return to the Cardinals this season due to a personal matter … Joey Votto told reporters Tuesday that he doesn’t plan on returning until his surgically-repaired knee is back to 100 percent health.

American League Quick Hits: Twins outfielder Josh Willingham slugged his career-best 30th home run on Tuesday night … Miguel Cabrera lifted his RBI total to 101 in Tuesday’s defeat of the Twins … Mike Napoli (quad) was cleared to resume hitting on Tuesday afternoon and also did some leg exercises … The Indians officially reinstated right-hander Roberto Hernandez -- formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- from the restricted list … Brandon Morrow (oblique) tossed four-plus scoreless innings Tuesday in a rehab start at Double-A New Hampshire … Albert Pujols is on pace for 36 homers, 44 doubles and 114 RBI ... Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie hurled seven scoreless innings Tuesday night against the A’s … Dallas Braden needs a second surgery on his left shoulder … Josh Beckett was shelled for six runs in 5 1/3 innings Tuesday as the Red Sox fell to the Orioles … The Twins optioned shortstop Brian Dozier to the Triple-A level on Tuesday after watching him bat .234/.271/.332 in 84 games … Mark Reynolds homered twice in the Orioles’ thrashing of the Red Sox on Tuesday night in Baltimore … Tigers right-hander Doug Fister has a 55/10 K/BB ratio in 53 1/3 innings since the All-Star break … Carl Crawford has posted a decent .815 OPS with three home runs, three stolen bases and 17 RBI in 26 games since returning from the disabled list … The Blue Jays signed Yorvit Torrealba to a minor league contract and Jeff Mathis to a two-year, $3 million extension with a $1.5 million club option for 2015 … Alex Rodriguez was cleared to begin baseball-related activities after an X-ray on his left hand Tuesday showed steady healing … The Royals released infielder Yuniesky Betancourt … Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis went 3-for-4 with a double, a homer and two steals in Tuesday’s loss to the White Sox.

 

[HacheMan]

What's Going On? It's beginning to look like the end of the line for Bobby Valentine. He's probably alienated about half of his players by attacking veterans like Kevin Youkilis in the media, leaving Jon Lester out to dry on a bad day, and generally just being Bobby Valentine. The book on the mercurial media-loving manager has always been suspicion about his devotion to his players, and that's coming to the fore now.

And on the other hand, there are still players in that clubhouse that think that the Red Sox decline this year has nothing to do with their manager. Even this Jeff Passan article that blew most recent lid off of the controversy admits that there's a faction of players that believe that some stars are shifting blame to the manager when it should be on them. And Dustin Pedroia just said publicly that nobody is gunning for the manager -- it's not a clear-cut mutiny.

The public is left wondering what's really going on. And in some ways, so is the Red Sox management. They can evaluate their personal relationships, and they can see what's happening on a daily basis, but can they truly separate out the effect their manager has had from the effect their players have had -- and the effect they had, when they put together the current roster? Who gets the blame for Kevin Youkilis' poor season? Who gets the blame for the pitching staff's poor production? How do you shuffle that blame around?

Evaluating managers in a studied, scientific way is one of the most difficult thing to do in baseball. But it's not alone. So instead of trying to evaluate managers, let's name the tiers after the remaining frontiers in baseball. What do we know the least about? What are the most difficult aspects of the game to figure out in a reasoned way?

Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "The Value of a Manager" Tier.)

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

While we are on the subject, might as well expound. It's virtually impossible to evaluate a manager. Let's say you figure out how to award a manager credits or demerits for his in-game strategy -- then you've figured how how to evaluate about a quarter of his job. Then maybe you can give him credit for the lineup. Separating out lineup protection has been difficult in the past, but maybe you can do it. Are you approaching half of his job yet? There's still all the day-to-day stuff, the psychological stuff, the media handling, the leadership when it comes to team and practice… and how are you going to figure THAT stuff out?

Nobody can figure out Aroldis Chapman either. And his team is scoring, his bullpen is strong, and he's likely going to be the best reliever in baseball when all is said and done. Consider Jonathan Papelbon, once a contender for that title. He is suffering from a little reduced velocity, his team is having trouble scoring runs, and he might not get the save opportunities the Cuban will enjoy. He's still great.

Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "How to Evaluate a Scout" Tier.)

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees

Scouts sign players, so there is usually a name associated to a prospect. Teams probably check who signed the best players, too. But it's still an organizational thing. You send multiple scouts out to see a player, and you get input from everywhere. Scouts talk to each other, too. And then the organization makes a pick after gathering as much information as they can. How do you mete out the responsibility for the pick? All blame or fame goes to the one scout that signed him?

Rafael Betancourt gets all the blame for blowing a save in San Francisco -- although Hunter Pence should get some of the fame for hitting the home run. And it was only Betancourt's fifth blown save of the year, so it's not a big deal. In his last ten appearances, the Rockies' closer has given up just that one earned run to Pence, and one walk. He's still excellent.

It's very tempting to move Rafael Soriano down and Tom Wilhelmsen up. They might be the closest relievers separated by a tier. Wilhelmsen does have more strikeouts and fewer walks -- his improved control is what has made him a monster -- but his team doesn't score runs, and that's half of what makes a save opportunity. The other half -- overall bullpen strength -- is about equal, considering the fresh arms that the Mariners have put together in Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor. A bump in the road might send Soriano down -- after all, he's ceding almost a strikeout per inning to the average closer these days.

Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Defense" Tier.)

Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles

There have been many advancements when it comes to defense. There are numbers out there, and theories. But most defensive numbers take about three times longer to become reliable than most offensive numbers, there's still a lot of debate about how to correctly evaluate defense, and all of the metrics include a subjective evaluation that can gum up the works. Add to this the difficulty of evaluating a catcher's defense in particular, and you can see that evaluating defense is still difficult.

The one amazing thing about Addison Reed to date is this: he's managed about a strikeout per inning, along with an above-average walk rate, and he's only blown three saves this year -- and that production should be considered to be below expectations. He had double-digit strikeout rates at every stop in the minor leagues, and minuscule walk rates. If you look at his first strike, zone percentage, outside-the-zone swing percentage, and contact rates, though, they are all above average. Those are better predictors than current walk rate -- first-strike rate in particular -- so expect better control going forward, especially next year.

It's nice to see Ernesto Frieri get the save Tuesday night without a walk. He did get the win on August tenth with a Kimbrel -- three strikeouts and no baserunners -- but he's been a little on-again, off-again recently. The walk rate is a little disconcerting, but look at the strikeouts. He now has 16 in his last ten innings, and that's against four walks. That'll do.

Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "The Link Between Specific Pitches and Injury" Tier.)

Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays

Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox

I've done some work on this subject myself, and Jeff Zimmerman has improved on that research, and we're fairly sure that heavy use of either sliders or curveballs or both can lead to more injuries. Of course, it's hard to create these studies exactly right, and each arm (ligament) is different. Some pitchers have thrown thousands of pitches in little league and college. Some, like Stephen Strasburg, took up the craft in college. Tough to lump those together in the same buckets.

When reading the tea leaves, it's not good to see your closer pitch in a losing game, but at least Steve Cishek only came into get one out in a game that the Marlins trailed by one run. He's still the nominal closer, and Heath Bell still gave up four runs in his last appearance. Add up the fact that Bell has gone three appearances without a strikeout (and has six in his last ten outings), and you don't get the sense that the highly paid one is knocking down the door. That means Cishek gets to rise above the fray.

Alfredo Aceves has one foot in the bottom tier now that Andrew Bailey is back, but Aceves has really righted the ship after a stormy debut as the closer. Still, he's about two strikeouts per inning shy of an average closer, his control is only average, he doesn't get more ground-balls than the average reliever -- there's a crack of daylight for the more excellent but more often injured Bailey to take the reins. Bailey's a decent pickup.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page. <!--RW-->

Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Value of a Reliever" Tier.)

Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Sergio Romo (first chair), Jeremy Affeldt (second chair), Santiago Casilla (third chair), San Francisco Giants

Glen Perkins (first chair), Jared Burton (second chair), Minnesota Twins

Grant Balfour (first chair), Ryan Cook (second chair), Oakland Athletics

Jim Henderson (first chair), John Axford (second chair), Milwaukee Brewers
Frank Francisco (first chair), Jon Rauch (second chair), Bobby Parnell (third chair), New York Mets

Dale Thayer (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres


It's obvious that relievers pitch about a third of a regular starter's workload. And it's also obvious that those innings are often more valuable because they come at the end of the game, in higher pressure situations. With work quantifying that pressure (leverage index), we've found a way to give relievers more credit for their work. But if you look around baseball, relievers are still paid more than they are "worth" by many teams. Could be a difference in opinion, or it could mean more research is needed. Obviously, from the emails in my inbox, there are a lot of different ideas about how to evaluate a pitcher in a small amount of innings.

It's good that these are tiers, especially when it comes to the bottom of this tier. If you have strong feelings about Sergio Romo, or Glen Perkins, or Grant Balfour, then you can act on those feelings. It's not like Frank Francisco or Jim Henderson -- despite being in 'sole' ownership of their closer roles -- are sitting so pretty that they deserve that much more attention. We've learned over time that managers don't prefer the committee, and that after some time, cream rises to the top. Consider this tier your grab bag, and the chairs your guide to which closer is probably in line for the most saves on his team.

In San Francisco, the manager opted to have Madison Bumgarner go for a complete game rather than try to decipher who should close. That means something. It also means something that the Giants have chosen to protect Sergio Romo from overuse and hide his slider-heavy approach from lefties. He still doesn't have a save since Bruce Bochy declared this a timeshare. In the meantime, Santiago Casilla has only pitched for eight outs in August, and in blowouts or losses. Maybe he'll show something and get back in the race. He's more suited for work against both lefties and righties than anyone else in that pen.

It's just as tough to read the tea leaves in Minnesota, since both Jared Burton and Glen Perkins have two saves each in August, but maybe there's a change coming. Perkins is a lefty, and managers prefer righties, but the Twins are looking to next year. And Burton is not under contract next year. Look for Perkins -- who has the rates of a better pitcher -- to get more opportunities down the stretch.

In Oakland, Ryan Cook's walks may have cost him the job. He's only appeared in one game in the past week, and it was a four-out appearance that started in the seventh inning. The good news is that he didn't walk a guy. The bad news is that he pitched in the seventh and Grant Balfour got the save. There really isn't anything wrong with Balfour (other than his name), so even if Cook gets more strikeouts, the suddenly competitive Athletics might need the steadiest hand at the helm for now. Balfour only has one save, but he's in the first chair right now, and that matters most.

Jim Henderson got the last save in Milwaukee, but the 29-year-old journeyman minor leaguer also had the last blown game in Milwaukee. And after defying his record, which said that walks might be a problem, for his first six innings, Henderson has walked three in his last two. We don't have anything else to work with, but despite his mid-90s gas, Henderson's record leaves more questions than answers. Keep Axford -- the last minor league journeyman with control to succeed as the closer for the Brew crew -- close, because he could still take it back. The mustachioed one only has four walks in his last ten appearances, and that counts as progress this year.

That New York bullpen? It's just the worst in the league. And bullpen performance and scoring punch are the best predictors for future save opportunities, so that team won't create many saves either. But Bobby Parnell is now pitching in the seventh, and Jon Rauch has a save, so the order has shifted some. That means something to the saves-hungry. Frankie Frank is still in the first seat, but he has a behemoth looking over his shoulder.

Dale Thayer goes last because it's just a strained calf for Huston Street and he should be back soonish. Luke Gregerson has never gotten the full trust of his coaching staff, and as a high-slider guy with platoon splits and a balky elbow, he's almost directly analagous to Sergio Romo. Thayer got the last save and should get the next one.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

Injured

Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Huston Street (calf), San Diego Padres

Whoah, two guys, one is done for the year, and the other is probably done for the year. Guess by now you're healthy or deposed. Oh, except for Huston Street, who pointed out why a pitcher who has been injured often can be considered an injury risk. The fact that he slides right into Frank Francisco's spot here makes a lot of sense.

The Deposed

Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Brian Fuentes, St. Louis Cardinals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals

Ryan Cook has one foot in this box. Grant Balfour has one foot out. Let's wait a week to see what's really going on in Oakland.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

The Steals Department

Coco Crisp is available in more mixed leagues than he should be. Over the past two weeks, he's just two stolen bases off the league lead (held by Rajai Davis at seven), and Crisp suffer from the same platoon splits as Davis. Of course, Ben Revere still profiles better as the younger, speedier option, but Crisp is not a bad fallback, and he has more power. With Oakland suddenly competitive, Crisp should show better runs and RBI totals than he has in the past. It's time to go co-co for Crisp's afro-puffs.

Last week's deep league tout, Ryan Kalish, is now in the minors. He'll be back in September, but it's just another reason that deep leagues are so tough. Like, you could ignore all the strikeouts and the poor batting average so far from Anthony Gose, but he could end up in the minors again pretty easily. That team wants to see what they have, though, so he'll probably make it through the season. Wether or not he'll actually cut down on those strikeouts and make more contact is another question. Right now he has the swinging strike rate to match his terrible strikeout rate, and his minor league work predicted this. But he's a burner! He had 76 steals against 17 caught stealings over two levels in the minors last year.

 

[HacheMan]

Melky Cabrera replacement options

Eric Karabell

Just as the San Francisco Giants can still make the postseason despite losing outfielder Melky Cabrera for 50 games, essentially the rest of the regular season and then some, for testing positive for testosterone, fantasy owners aren't done yet, either. This isn't a pleasant loss, as Cabrera enters Wednesday ninth on ESPN Fantasy's Player Rater for the season, but unless you're talking Mike Trout, no single player is really deciding fantasy championships these days.




<offer>Cabrera's main contributions for fantasy purposes have been in batting average -- he's hitting .346 -- and in runs scored (only Trout has more). But we're in mid-August now, and all that matters are the numbers moving ahead these final six weeks. Cabrera can be replaced in terms of power and speed; he hadn't hit more than three home runs in any month this season, and he had stolen just four bases since June 1. He's replaceable.</offer>
<offer></offer>
<offer>In fact, I'd argue the Giants are in worse shape than fantasy owners following this news. Cabrera's likely replacement, Gregor Blanco, isn't exactly a high-average hitter, and he won't replace Cabrera's run production in the No. 3 lineup spot, even if he can steal a base and make diving catches to save perfect games. That's what the Giants are looking at in left field.


I wouldn't try to find someone capable of hitting .346 the rest of the season. It was pretty unlikely Cabrera was going to do that in the first place; he was hitting .309 in August. Look closer at your place in the standings in home runs and stolen bases and see if you need an upgrade there, and whether you can afford to lose a bit in batting average, because quite a few of these available players aren't going to hit even .250 the rest of the way.


In terms of cheap and likely available power, Eric Chavez, Jonny Gomes, Mark Reynolds, Todd Frazier, Brett Wallace, Wilin Rosario, Dustin Ackley, Zack Cozart, Starling Marte and Salvador Perez are the only players with three or more home runs in the past 15 days that are still available in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues. Some of these players come with considerable batting average risk, of course, or aren't eligible in the outfield. Personally, if you can make your roster fit, I like corner infielder Frazier the most in the above group. He should get serious Rookie of the Year consideration and continue to play at third base when Joey Votto comes off the DL. Marte is appealing as well, but don't expect the power to continue.


As for stolen base options, I blogged about readily available names earlier Wednesday, before the stunning Cabrera news broke, so check and see whether Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre, Jarrod Dyson, Eric Young, Anthony Gose, Darin Mastroianni or Will Venable are out there. Davis might end up leading the majors in steals, and he's owned in fewer than half of ESPN's standard leagues. And really, Blanco might be the best you can do; he barely played in August, but he did hit .315 with 20 runs scored and five steals in May. In June, Blanco hit .218 but still scored 15 runs and stole eight bases. Hey, at least you know he's going to play now.


The Giants have been hitting Angel Pagan and Ryan Theriot atop their lineup -- they're tied for first place in the NL West -- and that lineup arrangement doesn't figure to change. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval came off the disabled list this week and should slot into Cabrera's No. 3 lineup slot against right-handed pitching, with Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt to follow. While it's certainly possible Belt moves to left field, it's not like the Giants have a prime Willie McCovey on the bench, either. Brett Pill could start facing lefties and seeing action at first base, but he's not worth adding in standard leagues. What's Aubrey Huff been up to this season? Not much. Don't presume any individual Giants hitters -- or pitchers, for that matter -- will see a major change in their statistics, other than obviously Blanco. Fantasy owners can do better.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Sour Melk

Melky Cabrera has revitalized his career since the start of the 2011 season. As it turns out, he’s had some extra help.



The 2012 All-Star Game MVP and current major league hits leader has been suspended 50 games by Major League Baseball for testing positive for testosterone. He reportedly failed the test around the All-Star break, but it had been going through the appeals process, which is why the announcement didn’t come until now.



Cabrera served the first game of his suspension Wednesday, and the Giants have 44 more in the regular season, so Melky will be ineligible to return until a few games into the playoffs (assuming his team makes it there). It’s obviously a huge blow to a Giants team that’s been better on offense this season but is still lacking a ton of firepower.



For now, Gregor Blanco is expected to handle the bulk of the starts in left field. Blanco is batting just .236/.331/.346 this season but does have 19 steals, so he could help a bit in fantasy leagues with regular playing time. An interesting name that’s been thrown out there is Alfonso Soriano’s, but Soriano didn’t want to waive his 10-and-5 rights at the deadline, and that still appears to be his stance.



Another aspect of this is that Cabrera has surely cost himself a ton of money in free agency this winter. Someone will likely still be willing to pay a pretty big sum for a guy that had been well on his way to a second straight 200-hit season, but Melky’s list of suitors and price tag undoubtedly shrunk after Wednesday’s news.



The King is Perfect



Remember when some were a little worried about Felix Hernandez’s lack of velocity in spring training?



Those concerns proved to be unnecessary long ago, and King Felix put an exclamation point on his season Wednesday, tossing the first perfect game in Mariners history. The right-hander was simply breathtaking, striking out 12 overmatched Rays hitters while requiring 113 pitches to complete the gem. It’s the third perfect game in baseball this season and the sixth no-hitter, three of which that have been thrown at Safeco Field.



King Felix has been on fire since the All-Star break, posting a pristine 1.39 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and 48/9 K/BB ratio over 58 1/3 innings. He’s also once again been one of the best pitchers in the game all season long, sporting a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 174/44 K/BB ratio over 180 frames.



Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik was steadfast before the trade deadline and again after Wednesday’s perfecto that he has no interest in trading Hernandez. We don’t doubt that he’s speaking the truth, but it will be interesting to see if he changes his mind or if King Felix possibly even requests a trade if the M’s are floundering again next season. Hernandez is owed $39.5 million from 2013-14 before hitting free agency.



Garcia Bumps Kelly to Pen



Joe Kelly proved to be a nice stabilizer at the back-end of the Cardinals’ rotation since his recall back in mid-June, posting a 3.41 ERA over 12 starts. His reward? A trip to the bullpen.



Jaime Garcia concluded his rehab assignment from a shoulder injury with five solid innings Tuesday and will rejoin the Cards’ rotation Sunday against the Pirates. That means Kelly is headed for a relief role despite his solid work, but given that he lacks consistent secondary offerings, he might be better suited for a relief role over the long haul, anyway. Kelly was a closer in his college days.



"He understands the mindset. He understands what it's like coming out of the bullpen," manager Mike Matheny said on MLB.com. "I think he'll adjust quickly to it. I think he's going to come back throwing a little harder."



As far as Garcia goes, it appears that a shoulder injury that’s kept him out since early June is no longer an issue. Garcia posted a 4.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 11 outings before going on the DL, but it’s worth noting that he was clearly compromised in his last couple outings, when he surrendered 10 runs over eight innings, pushing his ERA up nearly a full point from 3.55. His pitch count didn’t reach 100 during his rehab assignment, so his outings could be short initially. It might be wise to give him a start or two before activating him.











National League Quick Hits: Neil Walker dislocated his right pinkie finger in Wednesday’s loss to the Dodgers. He’ll visit with a hand specialist Thursday before more is known about his status ... Huston Street (calf) is not expected to be activated from the disabled list until September, as he’s yet to resume throwing and it’s not clear when he’ll do so. Dale Thayer will continue to handle save chances for the Padres in the meantime ... Yadier Molina sat out Wednesday’s game and could miss 1-2 more with lower back tightness. Tony Cruz will fill in behind the plate ... Bud Norris exited Wednesday’s start with a contusion on his left foot after he tried to stop a comebacker. His status for his next outing is up in the air ... The Mets are moving to a six-man rotation, adding Jeremy Hefner to the mix. They will keep R.A. Dickey on regular rest, though ... Jim Henderson blew a save chance Wednesday and has now been scored upon in four of his last six appearances. The Brewers would like John Axford to regain his closer job, but he’s certainly done nothing to indicate he’s ready to re-take the role.



American League Quick Hits: David Ortiz (Achilles) said he’s feeling better, but he’s yet to resume baseball activities and will not do so for another few days. His return date remains up in the air ... Jemile Weeks could be fighting to keep his starting job at second base. Adam Rosales started there Wednesday, and prospect Grant Green has been playing more second base at Triple-A Sacramento ... J.P. Arencibia had the hard cast removed from his fractured right hand on Wednesday and can begin doing light strengthening exercises. The Blue Jays are hoping to get him back at the beginning of September ... Alex Rodriguez (hand) will undergo more X-rays Sunday and should be cleared to resume swinging a bat if the exams show similar progress as his last X-ray ... Paul Konerko (concussion) has resumed baseball-related activities and looks to be on track to return from the 7-day DL on Friday when first eligible ... Rangers manager Ron Washington has no plans to bench the struggling Michael Young in favor of Mike Olt or anyone else. Young entered play Wednesday batting just .269/.300/.343 with three homers this season.​

 

[HacheMan]

Jaime Time The Giants and fantasy owners were dealt a tough blow Wednesday afternoon when it was announced that Melky Cabrera was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for Testosterone. The Giants only have 44 games left during the regular season, so Cabrera is done for the year for fantasy purposes and can be dropped in redraft leagues. Bummer.

Cabrera ranked second in the majors in batting average (.346), first in hits (159) and second in runs scored (84), so it may seem like an impossible task to replace him on the waiver wire, but there is some reason for optimism. Keep in mind that for all of Cabrera's success, he had a crazy high .379 batting average on balls in play. Even with his speed and a strong line drive rate, it was a bit of a stretch to think he would have been able to maintain a .346 batting average the rest of the way. He also had 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases, which is certainly decent enough, but that production can be pieced together or potentially exceeded on the waiver wire.

Yes, it hurts to lose Cabrera for the rest of the year, but his suspension is not a reason to wave the white flag. The waiver wire is admittedly picked dry in many competitive leagues, but hopefully you'll find an option below that can help keep your season afloat.

MIXED LEAGUES:

Jaime Garcia SP, Cardinals (Yahoo: 39 percent owned, ESPN: 27 percent)

Garcia has become something of a forgotten man after missing the past two months due to a sprained left shoulder, but he should be back on your fantasy radar. The 26-year-old southpaw notched eight strikeouts while allowing two runs over five innings Tuesday in a rehab start with Triple-A Memphis and is currently on track to rejoin the Cardinals' rotation on Sunday against the Pirates. He had a 4.48 ERA in 11 starts this season prior to going on the disabled list, but this is a guy with a 3.45 career ERA. If he's healthy, expect better results.

Todd Frazier 1B/3B/OF, Reds (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 27.4 percent)

Seriously, what else does this guy have to do to be owned in the majority of mixed leagues? Frazier has hit safely in six straight games, five of them multi-hit performances, and is now batting .286/.343/.541 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI on the year. Rookie of the Year, anyone? As I noted on Twitter on Wednesday night, his .884 OPS is higher than Albert Pujols, Mark Teixiera, Jason Heyward and teammate Jay Bruce, just to name a few. It might not be an issue for a couple of weeks, but let's hope Reds manager Dusty Baker finally breaks from his veteran fixation and gives Frazier regular starts at third base over Scott Rolen when Joey Votto returns from the disabled list. Fingers crossed.

Dale Thayer RP, Padres (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 23.2 percent)

Huston Street suffered a strained left calf while trying to cover first base last Friday and is expected to be out until September. The Padres haven't named an official replacement at closer, but Luke Gregerson got one out in the eighth inning against the Braves on Monday night before Thayer tossed a scoreless ninth to notch the save. Thayer went 5-for-5 in save chances in May while Street was on the disabled list with a lat strain, so he looks like the one to own here, even though Gregerson is the superior pitcher. Hey, that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Brandon Belt 1B/OF, Giants (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 14.7 percent)

The last time I mentioned Belt in Waiver Wired on June 21, he had homered in three straight games. The bad news is that he has only homered once since that day, but his bat is at least showing some signs of life recently. The 24-year-old is hitting a cool .450 (18-for-40) with five doubles, one triple and four RBI this month. I'm not exactly holding my breath here, but given his patience, he deserves a shot out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup. Either way, he's worth consideration in mixed leagues with a CI (corner infielder) spot.

Jon Jay OF, Cardinals (Yahoo: 23 percent owned, ESPN: 32 percent)

Jay may have heard the whispers that the Cardinals were considering calling up top prospect outfielder Oscar Taveras. The 27-year-old batted .531 (17-for-32) during an eight-game hitting streak which came to an end on Wednesday night. His recent surge has led to Cardinals manager Mike Matheny to use him out of the leadoff spot, which is an excellent development for his fantasy value moving forward. Jay isn't going to help much in the power department, but he has some speed and is a .302 career hitter in the big leagues. He's a decent alternative if you were forced to drop Melky Cabrera on Wednesday.

Yonder Alonso 1B/OF, Padres (Yahoo: 19 percent owned, ESPN: 11.8 percent)

Alonso's numbers aren't that impressive on the surface this season, but he's hitting .301 with three home runs, 11 doubles, 19 RBI and an .811 OPS in 30 games since the All-Star break. That's a pretty big improvement from the first half, where he batted just .263 with three home runs, 23 RBI and a .706 OPS in 83 games. The 25-year-old first baseman may not help much in the power department, especially playing his home games in a stadium which kills left-handed power, but he should be able to maintain a decent batting average and drive in a bunch of runs out of the fifth spot in the batting order. He's a decent enough option if you need to fill a CI (corner infielder) spot.

Alex Cobb SP, Rays (Yahoo: 17 percent owned, ESPN: 27.8 percent)

The Rays are going to have a tough decision to make when Jeff Niemann is ready to return from a fractured leg. Cobb has allowed one run over seven innings in each of his last three starts and now owns a 4.08 ERA and 67/28 K/BB ratio over 90 1/3 innings. The 24-year-old right-hander has allowed just four home runs all season while posting an outstanding 58.5 percent ground ball rate. Things could get complicated when Niemann returns later this month, but Cobb is at least worth using for upcoming starts against the Angels and Athletics.

Rajai Davis OF, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 43.2 percent)

Davis continues to go overlooked in most fantasy leagues despite ranking second in the majors with 35 stolen bases. The 31-year-old speedster has been a staple in Toronto's starting lineup over the past few weeks and has batted leadoff in 10 straight games. Davis figures to lose some playing time once Jose Bautista is able to return from wrist inflammation, but we're still likely a week or two away from that situation coming to a head. His speed should continue to come in handy in most formats, anyway.

Ruben Tejada 2B/SS, Mets (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 28.2 percent)

While the Mets have faded in a big way since the All-Star break, Tejada has managed to remain productive. The 22-year-old hasn't been as patient as his first two seasons in the big leagues, but he has hit safely in 37 out of 45 games since returning from the disabled list on June 24 and is batting .320 overall. Tejada doesn't hit for power and isn't a threat to steal, so he doesn't do enough to justify a spot in shallow mixed leagues, but he's a pretty safe option if you need to fill a MI (middle infielder) spot.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Andy Dirks OF, Tigers (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 9.1 percent)

It looks like Dirks has picked up from where he left off in May. After missing two months due to a strained right Achilles tendon, the 26-year-old outfielder is hitting .366 (15-for-41) with one home run, five doubles, seven RBI and nine runs scored over 12 games this month. He has batted second in five out of his last seven starts, which is a pretty nice place to be with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder right behind him. Dirks isn't going to excel in any one category and he could sit occasionally as Quintin Berry and Brennan Boesch are mixed into the lineup, but he makes for a pretty cheap replacement for Melky Cabrera in deeper leagues.

Hisashi Iwakuma RP/SP, Mariners (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 2.1 percent)

Iwakuma hasn't received much attention, likely because plays for a last-place team on the West Coast, but he has pitched quite well since moving into the starting rotation. While the 31-year-old right-hander has an underwhelming 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP during his first year stateside, he has a 3.73 ERA and 35/16 K/BB ratio in 41 innings across seven starts. I'm a bit concerned with his penchant for the long ball (he has allowed one home run in each of his last 10 appearances), but he makes for an excellent streaming option for upcoming home starts against the Twins and Indians.

Yasmani Grandal C, Padres (Yahoo: 9 percent owned, ESPN: 1.5 percent)

Grandal was a waiver wire sensation after hitting home runs from both sides of the plate in his second major league game on June 30, but a strained oblique on July 30 caused him to be dropped in many mixed leagues. The good news is that the 23-year-old backstop began a minor league rehab assignment with High-A Lake Elsinore on Wednesday and could rejoin the Padres as soon as this weekend. He should be able to help in most formats the rest of the way, so it would be wise to stash him away before somebody else beats you to it. <!--RW-->

NL ONLY

Rob Brantly C, Marlins (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Acquired from the Tigers as part of the deal that sent Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Detroit, Brantly was called up from Triple-A New Orleans week and is expected to get semi-regular playing time down the stretch alongside the disappointing John Buck. The 23-year-old backstop is .280/.336/.392 hitter over parts of three seasons in the minors. He lacks patience at the plate, but has some pop and a knack for making contact. The Marlins didn't call him up to sit him on the bench, so he's at least worth grabbing in two-catcher formats.

Tyler Greene 2B/SS/OF, Astros (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.6 percent)

Greene ran out of chances with the Cardinals, but Astros manager Jeff Luhnow was happy to take him off their hands last week, acquiring him for a player to be named later. Luhnow ran the Cardinals' farm system prior to coming to the Astros and selected Greene 30th overall in the 2005 draft, so he's well acquainted with the 28-year-old infielder. Greene owns a .224/.297/.340 batting line over 575 plate appearances in the majors, so he's been a pretty big disappointment until this point, but he has enough pop and speed to remain interesting. With Jed Lowrie still sidelined due to a nerve issue in his right leg, he should get a chance to prove what he can do.

Gregor Blanco OF, Giants (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent)

Blanco was pushed to the bench after last month's acquisition of Hunter Pence, but he should get most of the playing time in left field now that Melky Cabrera will miss the rest of the season after testing positive for Testosterone. The 28-year-old started the season red-hot, but now owns a mediocre .236/.331/.346 batting line and a .677 OPS. On the bright side, he is 19-for-22 in stolen base attempts, so he should have fantasy value the rest of the way. It's just hard to get excited about him outside of NL-only leagues.

Fernando Martinez OF, Astros (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Martinez was called up last week following the demotion of team RBI leader J.D. Martinez. Aside from a concussion in June, the former top prospect has managed to remain healthy and productive this season, batting .314/.367/.507 with 13 home runs and an .875 OPS in 373 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. If you include his limited time in the majors this season, he has already appeared in more games than in any of his other previous six pro seasons. Still only 23 years old, he's worth owning down the stretch as the Astros evaluate whether he'll be part of the future.

AL ONLY

Brent Lillibridge 1B/3B/OF, Indians (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

After functioning as a spare part with both the White Sox and Red Sox this season, Lillibridge has landed in a pretty good spot with the Indians. The 28-year-old utility man has already made starts at second base, shortstop, third base and left field while collecting two homers, two doubles, three RBI, two stolen bases and nine runs scored in 14 games. Lillibridge managed 13 home runs and 10 stolen bases in just 97 games with the White Sox last year, so he could surprise if he continues to get chances.

Justin Smoak 1B, Mariners (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 3.1 percent)

Smoak was demoted to the minors late last month after hitting just .189 with a .573 OPS over his first 90 games this season. The former top prospect wasn't much better during his time with Triple-A Tacoma, batting .242 (16-for-66) with zero homers and a .754 OPS over 20 games, but the Mariners were forced to bring him back up this week after Mike Carp was placed on the disabled list with a hip injury. Smoak is clearly running out of chances in Seattle, so this recommendation doesn't come with much enthusiasm, but there's a pretty good chance he'll run into a few home runs down the stretch. He's worth a look if he was dropped.

Ryan Lavarnway UTIL, Red Sox (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

I mentioned Lavarnway in Waiver Wired back on July 19 as Kelly Shoppach was mentioned in some trade rumors. Shoppach ended up staying with the Red Sox past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but he was dealt to the Mets this week after being claimed on waivers. It was a necessary move for the Red Sox, who plan to evaluate Lavarnway over the next six weeks as they look toward 2013. The 25-year-old may not stick behind the plate in the long-term, but he has enough pop to be interesting in AL-only formats right now.

Josh Donaldson C/3B, Athletics (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

Brandon Inge was placed on the disabled list this week with a dislocated right shoulder. The A's are hopeful that he'll be ready to return right around when he's eligible, but Donaldson will hold down the starting third base job for now. The 26-year-old stumbled both offensively and defensively at the hot corner with the A's earlier this year, but he batted .335/.402/.598 with 13 homers and a 1.000 OPS in 51 games after his demotion to Triple-A Sacramento. Granted, those numbers were accomplished in the Pacific Coast League, but Donaldson won't have to do much to improve on his .173/.187/.279 batting line. He went 2-for-4 with a solo homer on Wednesday night against the Royals, so he's already off to a pretty good start in that regard. His eligibility at catcher could come in handy in the short-term.

 

[HacheMan]

Masterful Medlen
Kris Medlen recorded the first shutout of his young career Thursday, limiting the Padres to just five hits over nine scintillating innings of work.

The Braves have now won the past 15 consecutive games in which Medlen has started, including all four this season. He’s been dominant to this point, not having allowed more than one earned run in any of his starts while compiling a 3-0 record, 1.05 ERA and 22/4 K/BB ratio over 25 2/3 innings.

With Tommy Hanson returning to the Braves rotation this week, manager Fredi Gonzalez has stated that he would use a six-man rotation until their next off-day on August 30 before deciding on which five starters would stick for the stretch run. With as well as Medlen is pitching when he toes the slab, it’s hard to justify removing him from the rotation. Then again, Mike Minor and Ben Sheets have pitched well, too, so Gonzalez will have a tough decision on his hands. Medlen certainly needs to be owned and active in all formats at this point.

Braun Busts Out

Ryan Braun busted out of his recent slump in a big way on Thursday, launching a pair of solo home runs off Cliff Lee to power the Brewers over the Phillies.

The defending NL MVP had been in a rare funk, hitting just .203/.253/.304 with one homer, eight RBI and a 21/4 K/BB ratio over his last 17 games. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke gave him a “mental health day” on Wednesday, sitting him against Guillermo Moscoso at Coors Field, and it appears to have done wonders.

Perhaps as a result of his two homers earlier in the game, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel elected to intentionally walk Braun with a man on and two out in the eighth inning and the Phillies clinging to a 4-3 lead. Aramis Ramirez followed with a walk, then Corey Hart blasted a game-changing grand slam, with Braun crossing the plate as the go-ahead and eventual winning run.

Jones Continues to Sizzle

Garrett Jones gave the Pirates a big lift on Thursday, smashing a pair of three-run homers off Joe Blanton, powering his team to a 10-6 victory and allowing them to salvage one game of their four-game series against the Dodgers.

The 31-year-old outfielder/first baseman is enjoying the finest offensive season of his career, hitting .283/.316/.542 with 19 homers and 64 RBI. He’s now just two longballs shy of matching his career-high of 21 set in 2009 and 2010.

Jones has been sizzling since the All-Star break, hitting .315 (34-for-108) with seven homers and 27 RBI over 32 contests. Sure, he struggles against left-handed pitching, but he’s still a useful and underrated bat in all fantasy formats.

National League Quick Hits: A.J. Burnett on Thursday became the first Pirate in 13 years to win 15 games in a season (Todd Ritchie, 1999)… Michael Cuddyer was activated from the disabled list Thursday and immediately returned to the Rockies lineup, going 1-for-4 with a two-run homer… Chipper Jones blasted a pair of home runs on his bobblehead night Thursday, the second of which was his 2,700^th career hit… Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said that despite Wednesday’s blown save, Jim Henderson will continue to receive save opportunities, and held true to his word as Henderson picked up his third save Thursday to preserve a victory over the Phillies… Matt Kemp was ejected for arguing balls and strikes in the second inning on Thursday. He appeared to bump one of the umpires after he was tossed, and could face a possible suspension… Cliff Lee matched his season-high with 12 strikeouts in a no-decision against the Brewers Thursday… Matt Harvey was impressive Thursday, limiting the Reds to one run on four hits over 7 2/3 innings while striking out eight… Frank Francisco imploded in a non-save situation Thursday and is in danger of losing save chances… Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Young hit back-to-back solo homers in the ninth off Jason Motte Thursday to down the Cardinals… The Cubs and Starlin Castro are working on a long-term contract extension… Pirates manager Clint Hurdle confirmed that despite a dislocated pinkie finger, Neil Walker will not be placed on the disabled list… Emilio Bonifacio went 2-for-5 with an RBI in his first rehab start and hopes to return to the Marlins lineup on Sunday.

American League Quick Hits: Francisco Liriano allowed two runs on three hits against the Blue Jays Thursday, earning his first victory as a member of the White Sox… Dan Straily picked up the first win of his young career Thursday, limiting the Royals to three hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings… David Price twirled seven scoreless innings against the Angels Thursday, improving to 16-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 159/50 K/BB ratio… Evan Longoria hit his first home run Thursday in nine games since returning from the DL on August 7… Grant Balfour picked up his ninth save of the season with a perfect ninth inning Thursday. Ryan Cook pitched effectively in the eighth inning of the game, leading to speculation that the swap could be permanent… With a three-run blast on Thursday, Alex Rios is now hitting .309 with 19 homers, 70 RBI and 17 stolen bases… Dan Haren continued his recent struggles Thursday, surrendering five runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Rays… Scott Downs made a successful simulated relief appearance Thursday and expects to be activated from the DL on Saturday… Jacoby Ellsbury served as the Red Sox DH on Thursday, as he’s dealing with “a leg situation”… Edwin Encarnacion was scratched from the Blue Jays lineup Thursday with soreness in his wrist and shoulder after diving into the wall on Wednesday… Wilson Betemit’s MRI revealed a small cartilage tear in his wrist, and he was placed on the 15-day DL… Brett Lawrie (oblique) could return to the Jays lineup as early as Tuesday… Jose Bautista took live batting practice and could begin a rehab assignment early next week… Robinson Cano (neck) was out of the lineup Thursday for a second straight game, but did appear as a pinch hitter… CC Sabathia felt good throwing off flat ground Thursday and plans to return on August 24 against the Indians.

 

[HacheMan]

Wrighting the Ship
After missing the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery, Adam Wainwright returned for the Cardinals this spring. Yet, while he was back, early in the season it didn't really seem like he was back.

The right-hander, who won 39 games between the 2009 and 2010 seasons and was a Top 3 Cy Young finisher both years, was strangely human in the early months. He finished April with a 7.32 ERA and continued to battle inconsistency in the following weeks. In the first half, Wainwright allowed multiple homers in a start four times; in the 2010 season, he did so once all year.

On the bright side, there were plenty of positive signs and dominant performances mixed in, and slowly but surely, Wainwright has returned to form. Since the All-Star break, he's been absolutely lights-out, with 4-1 record, 1.91 ERA and 40/6 K/BB ratio in 42 1/3 innings spread across six starts. At this point, he appears to be fully back and has to be viewed as one of the most reliable options in the National League.

Fantasy owners can feel confident plugging him, along with other Strong Plays such as Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Zimmermann, into their lineups this week for two starts. AL-only players will have a tougher time finding appealing options, but among Decent Play take a hard look at Derek Holland, Brandon McCarthy and Gavin Floyd.

Going Twice…

American League

Strong Plays

Jeremy Hellickson: KC (Smith), OAK (McCarthy)
Doug Fister: TOR (Romero), LAA (Santana)

Decent Plays

Ricky Romero: @DET (Fister), @BAL (Gonzalez)
Derek Holland: BAL (Tillman), MIN (De Vries)
Scott Feldman: BAL (Gonzalez), MIN (Duensing)
Kevin Millwood: CLE (Jimenez), @CWS (Floyd)
Brandon McCarthy: MIN (Duensing), @TB (Hellickson)
Freddy Garcia: @CWS (Floyd), @CLE (Jimenez)
Gavin Floyd: NYY (Garcia), SEA (Millwood)
Miguel Gonzalez: @TEX (Feldman), TOR (Romero)

At Your Own Risk

Ervin Santana: @BOS (Beckett), @DET (Fister)
Brian Duensing: @OAK (McCarthy), @TEX (Feldman)
Cole De Vries: @OAK (McCarthy), @TEX (Holland)
Will Smith: @TB (Hellickson), @BOS (Lester)
Ubaldo Jimenez: @SEA (Millwood), NYY (Garcia)

National League

Strong Plays

Adam Wainwright: HOU (Harrell), @CIN (Bailey)
Jordan Zimmermann: ATL (Hudson), @PHI (Lee)
Madison Bumgarner: @LAD (Kershaw), ATL (Minor)
Cliff Lee: CIN (Bailey), WAS (Zimmermann)
Roy Halladay: CIN (Leake), WAS (Gonzalez)
Matt Harvey: COL (Chacin), HOU (Harrell)
R.A. Dickey: COL (White), HOU (Galarraga)
Clayton Kershaw: SF (Bumgarner), MIA (Buehrle)
Tim Hudson: @WAS (Zimmermann), @SF (Lincecum)

Decent Plays

Tim Lincecum: @LAD (Blanton), ATL (Hudson)
Edinson Volquez: PIT (Correia), @ARI (Saunders)
Mark Rogers: CHC (Germano), @PIT (Karstens)
Mark Buehrle: @ARI (Saunders), @LAD (Kershaw)
Lucas Harrell: @STL (Wainwright), @NYM (Harvey)
Homer Bailey: @PHI (Lee), STL (Wainwright)
Joe Saunders: MIA (Buehrle), SD (Volquez)
Mike Leake: @PHI (Halladay), STL (Garcia)

At Your Own Risk

Jhoulys Chacin: @NYM (Harvey), @CHC (Volstad)
Alex White: @NYM (Dickey), @CHC (Raley)
<!--RW-->
Streamer City

The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 8/22: Zach McAllister @ SEA
The righty is enjoying a nice rookie season, with a 3.46 ERA and impressive 69/20 K/BB ratio in 78 innings.

Thursday, 8/23: Alex Cobb vs. OAK
Cobb has been stellar lately, with a 1.93 ERA and 21/3 K/BB ratio over 28 innings in his last four starts. He's won three straight.

Saturday, 8/25: Franklin Morales vs. KC
He's been effective as a member of Boston's rotation and should be able to pile up some strikeouts against the Royals.

National League

Tuesday, 8/21: Joe Blanton vs. SF
Blanton has been solid since coming over to the Dodgers. Last time he faced the Giants (as a Phillie) he went eight strong innings.

Wednesday, 8/22: Wade LeBlanc @ ARI
LeBlanc owns an excellent 1.45 ERA and could face a softer lineup pitching in the top half of a double-header.

Friday, 8/24: Patrick Corbin vs. SD
A quality match-up for the rookie, who is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his past three starts.

Total Games

American League

6: BAL, BOS, CLE, CWS, DET, KC, LAA, NYY, SEA, TOR
7: MIN, OAK, TB, TEX

National League

6: CHC, HOU, LAD, MIL, PIT, SD, STL, WAS
7: ARI, ATL, CIN, COL, MIA, NYM, PHI, SF

Lefty/Righty Breakdowns

American League

BAL: 4 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
BOS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CLE: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
CWS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
DET: 2 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
KC: 2 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
LAA: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
MIN: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
NYY: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
OAK: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SEA: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TB: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TEX: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TOR: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
ATL: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CIN: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
COL: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
HOU: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAD: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIA: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
NYM: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
PHI: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
PIT: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SD: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
SF: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
STL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
WAS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

The Infirmary

You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:

Takashi Saito: Out until late August (hamstring)
Wilson Betemit: Out until late August (wrist)
Will Middlebrooks: Out for the season (wrist)
Ryan Sweeney: Out for the season (finger)
Josh Tomlin: Out indefinitely (elbow)
CC Sabathia: Out until late August (elbow)
Nate Schierholtz: Out until mid-September (toe)
Mike Napoli: Out until late August (quads)

 

[HacheMan]

Medlen Lives Up to the Hype Kris Medlen reaching his potential highlights this week’s addition.

Before jumping into the baseball news, I just wanted to make sure you all know that Colton and the Wolfman has changed timeslots. We are now on Tuesdays from 10pm-1am ET on SiriusXM (Sirius 210, XM 87). This week we do a mock draft to prepare for next week’s Colton and the Wolfman listener league draft on August 28. Ok, now back to business . . . .


Kris Medlen: Kris Medlen showed exactly why I and many others have argued both that he should be a starter and a very good one if given the chance. Thursday, Medlen spun a complete game shutout gem against the Padres. Through his first four starts, Medlen is 3-0 with a miniscule 1.05 ERA and picturesque 22/4 K/BB ratio. Medlen has been held back by injury and then by the Braves stubborn insistence that they start pitchers without Medlen’s ability. That has changed. Get on the bus before it pulls away. This guy is for real. [Note -- the signs were there if you looked. K/BB ratio in 09-10 before the injury -- 155/51; 2008 in AAA 120/27 -- strong!]

Dan Haren: Dan Haren’s nightmare season continues. The Angles announced that he will skip his next start Tuesday and return to the rotation next weekend against Detroit. Bad and worse -- bad that he misses a start, worse that he comes back to face the big bats of Miggy, Prince and co. Strategy point: Haren’s 2012 is a text book example of why pundits say pitching is so unpredictable and not worth big investments. Before this year, he posted 5 straight years of sub 4.00 ERA, sub 1.30 WHIP, 190+ Ks and over 200 IP. This year, DL stints, 4.90 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Will he bounce back? Probably not this year. I don’t start him against Detroit. Do I invest next year? Only if I get a bargain price.

Ian Desmond: In a move that caused cheers throughout the DC area and many an NL only roto leaguer, the Nats activated Ian Desmond from the DL. Hopefully, Desmond will continue his breakout year -- .286, 17 homers and 15 steals. The roto lesson here is that people get too high on rookies, too low on young players who have not lived up to the rookie hype right away and forget to watch for the real breakout at the expected time. Take Desmond for example. He had decent numbers but looked undisciplined in years one and two. Then, in year 3 in his age 26 season, he posts the big jump in production. Look for those players when you do your research next spring.

Tommy Hanson: The Braves got pitching richer yesterday by activating Tommy Hanson from DL. The good news is that Hanson proceeded to go out and toss 6.2 solid innings. The bad news is that Hanson has not come near his pre-2012 performance. In other words, he has been ok but not great with a 4.29 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. I fear that he will continue to perform well below his potential unless and until he solves the shoulder issues. Before this year, Hanson had three years of 1.10 level WHIPs and ERAs 3.60 or lower. Bottom line: When I read about an arm injury to a pitcher that is going to be rehabbed, I worry about underperformance or worse. Remember that in the spring.

Kevin Frandsen: Kevin Frandsen seems to have found a home in Philly. Thursday, Frandsen went 3-5 with a double and three RBI. Frandsen is a guy I always liked and thought was undervalued. Thus far this year, Frandsen is hitting a cool .328 and has struck out only four times in 67 AB. Despite hitting .290+ at every minor league stop, Frandsen never got a real chance to play every day in the show. He is getting that chance and making the most of it in Philly. For those of you in NL only leagues, you could do a lot worse. [Note, Rick Wolf and I picked up Frandsen in LABR NL and are quite happy we did].

Cliff Lee: Cliff Lee must have walked under a ladder while a black cat with the number 13 on it crossed his path. Thursday, Lee mowed down 12 Brewers but still got a no decision. A pitcher with a 3.83 ERA and 142/24 K/BB ratio in a hitter's haven should have more than 2 wins. Just bad luck! Remember these facts next year because his paltry win total will drive his price 5-8 dollars below real value and provide a major buying opportunity. You heard it here.

Michael Cuddyer: Michael Cuddyer returned from the DL with a bang, blasting a two-run homer. Thus far this year, Cuddyer has been good -- .259 with 16 HR and 58 RBI. However, he has not lived up the hype he generated when signing a big deal to move from the cavernous Target Field to the launching pad at Coors. Cuddyer is a good player but not a roto superstar. Those who invested on the come assuming a big jump in a new home forgot two rules -- one, players do not get more talent in a new stadium; and two, players who sign big contracts press at the beginning and end up with yearlong totals below what is forecast. Next year, adjust your bids accordingly for new home, big contract players.

Dan Straily: Dan Straily looked good -- real good -- Thursday tossing 6.1 shutout innings to earn his first big league win. Since his promotion, Straily has a 3.18 ERA and 12/4 K/BB ratio. Of course, he is a must start against the Twins Tuesday. However, that leaves the question about what to expect down the stretch. There is a risk that Brett Anderson comes back and takes his spot. However, this is a kid who posted a gaudy 1.36 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the hitter friendly PCL over 53 innings (with 67K). He is for real. Those in both keeper and redraft leagues should take notice.

Moises Sierra: Moises Sierra had a big game Thursday with a two run dinger. Thus far, Sierra has been a nice surprise for the Jays, hitting .333 with 2 HR, and 5 runs and 5 RBI in just 42 AB. At 23, he has room to grow. His 17 HR in 377 AB in AAA with a .360 OBP say this is a player to stash in keeper leagues and one who could help right now in deep AL-only leagues.

Chipper Jones: Chipper Jones is on fire! Thursday, “Larry” went yard twice with three RBI. Last night, Chipper went yard again to boost his season totals to .313 with 13 HR and 54 RBI in just 275 at-bats. I don’t know if he will stick with his retirement plans -- he needs 300 hits for 3000 and 34 HR for 500 -- but he is hot and motivated now and should continue to produce right through the end of the season. Buy if you are in it this year.

And last and but not least, this from the Baron of the Bottom of the Page -- Schultz says: “The debate over whether the Washington Nationals are going to or even should shut down Stephen Strasburg at some point this season is one of the more perplexing conundrums to face a real life team in many years. The ethical issue of whether it's fair to push a 24-year-old pitcher not that far divorced from the surgical reconstruction of his elbow past the point where his doctors feel is safe so that a team and city can win their first World Series title isn't that easily resolved. In roto-terms, Strasburg has surely carried his roto-owners towards the top of the standings and should the Nats choose to act circumspectly, his loss could be catastrophic towards your roto-championship hopes. If this does happen, you really have only yourself to blame as this turn of events can hardly come as a surprise. Many have warned to have a backup option ready as the Nationals are looking at the larger picture, even if a real-life championship seems close at hand. Should the Nats choose otherwise, don't think this won't hurt Strasburg's long term value in keeper leagues.

The Strasburg situation brings to mind another adage that should be remembered for the rest of 2012. Players that don't play can't help you win championships. With the rosters expanding on September 1, this could come into play for roto-teams relying on players who are currently big fish in small ponds. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard could provide big numbers just by the sheer fact that they are who they are. Between injuries and a desire to see how some of their young talent performs, there is a lot of incentive in Philadelphia to not push either of their big men past their breaking point. On the other hand, the second wild card spot is going to keep teams like the Orioles, A’s, Diamondbacks and Pirates playing their A teams and going to give everyone on them incentive to play their hardest - which after 120-130 games isn't a given. Teams that are out of the running are going to see what some youngsters have to offer for 2013 When planning the last 6 weeks of your roto-season, make sure you are relying on players that will be taking the field.”

Response: More great stuff from Schultz. However, he does leave one question unanswered -- are his beloved Indians in the nothing to play for group yet? 9.5 games out of the second wildcard seems too steep of a hill to climb, no?

 

[HacheMan]

Fantasy lessons learned so far in 2012

Eric Karabell

If asked to name the biggest story of the 2012 fantasy baseball season, most people would highlight the extraordinary performance of Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout. Not only has he locked up AL Rookie of the Year honors, but regardless of whether his team makes it to the postseason, I think he should be the AL MVP. For fantasy owners he enters the third weekend of August leading ESPN's Player Rater by a staggering margin, on pace for numbers rarely accomplished by anyone in the game's wondrous history, rookie or veteran.


Of course, that hardly means it's time to alter philosophy on all rookies just because one of them has proved to be about as special as they come.

The happy, optimistic baseball fan in me loves what Trout is doing and wishes I had him on more fantasy teams. As a relatively conservative fantasy player always trying to win now, I tend to let others overrate the rookies, and we should remember Trout played most of April in the minor leagues and turned 21 last week. His season performance was unexpected. But when I look around at some of the other highly touted first-year players, I'm reminded why it's best to carry a cautious attitude when analyzing expectations for these fellows either in drafts or trades.

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Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, for example, has been unplayable for fantasy purposes since the All-Star break, batting .171 sans power and speed. Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish, a dominant veteran of Japan baseball, is winning games and piling on the strikeouts, and doing so with an ugly 1.46 WHIP, negating his good stats for fantasy owners. Future Tim Lincecum clone (the good Lincecum prior to this season) Trevor Bauer made his long-awaited debut at 21, and after four starts and an ERA on the wrong side of 6, was sent back to Triple-A. We've discussed Kansas City Royals minor league slugger Wil Myers for four months and still he has yet to make his debut.


Despite Trout's evidence to the contrary, baseball is not an easy game to play. Both pitchers and hitters need to make many an adjustment over time, whether they've come from the minors or Asia. As I share my considerable thoughts on what was learned this 2012 baseball season -- and it's still got six weeks to go, so things could certainly change -- I'd say Trout's performance both teaches us that occasionally the unexplainable and unexpected happens. It's awesome to watch and analyze, but the historical narrative about rookies finding their way and needing time -- or sophomores, in the case of disappointing Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer -- exists as much as ever.


Here are other things learned and/or confirmed that have played a role for fantasy purposes this season.


• One more Trout thought: More than half of Trout owners in ESPN standard leagues are enjoying life in first or second place, and a third of them are winning their leagues. The same is not the case with Harper, who was viewed similarly, if not more favorably, by many in March. It makes perfect sense to use a late-round pick on a highly touted rookie (Harper was a 22nd rounder, Trout went undrafted), but this also reminds us that one dominant hitter, like Matt Kemp or Jacoby Ellsbury in 2011, can make a significant impact.


• Runs scored are down this season, but oddly enough, home runs are up. This trend can't be entirely blamed on Adam Dunn, either. I don't think this tells us much in preparing for 2013, though. Someone like Dunn, hitting all of .207, remains an acquired taste or just plain unownable for many. He and Josh Hamilton are on pace for 47 home runs, which would top anything that occurred in 2011, but falls in line with the past decade. A year ago on Aug. 17, 11 players had hit 27 or more home runs, led by Jose Bautista. Today 10 players have hit 27 or more long balls. Overall, entering Friday the home run per at-bat rate was 33.48, best since 2009. Last season it was 36.40 and in 2010 it was 35.85. It's premature to assume this continues in 2012 or beyond.

Dunn is the only player in history to reach 40 home runs with a sub-.500 slugging percentage, achieving this odd feat in 2006. He's currently on pace for repeat performance, but he's not the only power hitter struggling to hit for average or providing little else in terms of fantasy production or extra base hits. Josh Willingham, Curtis Granderson, Bautista, Josh Reddick, Jay Bruce, Mark Teixeira, Adam LaRoche and others are on their way to 30 home runs, but hitting well below .270, a relatively expected benchmark for fantasy owners. With the league batting average in line with last year at .255 but a far cry from 2009, when it was .262, fantasy owners find it tough to avoid owning at least a few batting average problems, but that's OK since the overall bar has been lowered in fantasy leagues, too.


• Bautista has missed time with a wrist injury, and the absence of some of fantasy's top options has been a common though annoying theme. Of the top 10 players taken on average ESPN live drafts, half have spent time on the disabled list, including a pair of stints for Kemp. Troy Tulowitzki and his torn groin have missed more than half the season. Joey Votto's return keeps getting pushed back. Depth is important in fantasy, especially on offense, but it's not like Kemp and Votto have long histories of being brittle, either. Call it bad luck.


• I'd argue that little has changed in terms of securing top offensive talent on draft day and waiting on pitchers. Only Justin Verlander resides in the top 10 on the Rater among starting pitchers, and only 16 of the overall top 50 are starters. There have been myriad surprise performances -- and there always are -- from undrafted starters like R.A. Dickey, Ryan Vogelsong, Chris Capuano, A.J. Burnett, Wade Miley, Jason Vargas, and Kyle Lohse, not to mention Scott Diamond, James McDonald, Jake Westbrook, Paul Maholm and Ben Sheets. I'll continue to load up on offense, probably eight of my first 10 picks at least, and search for bargains late. If you fail to notch a decent team ERA and WHIP in fantasy, you're just looking in the wrong places, frankly. Help is readily available.


• As for those top hurlers, it's worth noting that a few of those sure-things have been anything but. Top starting pitcher Roy Halladay has missed time and boasts a 3.80 ERA. Cliff Lee has two wins, one more than infielder Chris Davis and five fewer than Cleveland Indians reliever Joe Smith. Lincecum has been a nightmare to own. CC Sabathia is on the DL for the second time and Dan Haren probably should join him. Grab an ace or two if you can, but don't be surprised when they don't perform like stars and you're lacking in offensive depth. I'm more likely to load up on Nos. 3 and 4 starters and win the hitting stats.

With strikeout rates among relief pitchers going through the roof, one could argue non-save relief pitchers haven't been this valuable in generations. The top relief pitcher in fantasy has been Cincinnati Reds lefty Aroldis Chapman, with Fernando Rodney and Craig Kimbrel not far behind. What does this tell us? Well, Chapman's season has been incredible, but it's not going to lead me to draft a closer in the first 10 rounds next year. He's on pace for 146 strikeouts, more than many usable starting pitchers. His WHIP is 0.68. In fact, he might be a starter in 2013! Rodney's performance is even more stunning; his ERA was on the wrong side of 4 each of the past five seasons (4.42 cumulative) and he had more walks than strikeouts in 2011. Now his ERA is 0.81. If anything, we've learned that whatever Rays manager Joe Maddon does in his bullpen, buy into it. I'd also argue those in deep leagues that cannot find suitable starting pitching depth should look for strikeout middle relievers like Tim Collins, David Hernandez, Jason Grilli and Craig Stammen, among others. Saves aren't everything. Good innings and whiffs matter, too.


• As for closers themselves, those who follow my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft and his excellent weekly Relief Efforts column know that more than half of the closer situations in baseball have changed hands since early April, providing a near-constant stream of saves on free-agent lists. This is critical information and proof that waiting on saves in drafts is the wise choice. Load up on what you feel are the "safest" closers all you want, but this season that might have been Mariano Rivera (second in live draft results), Brian Wilson (fourth), John Axford (fifth), Drew Storen (sixth) and Ryan Madson (seventh). Of the top seven closers on draft day, three haven't pitched, and only two are closing today. Then there's Heath Bell (12th), Andrew Bailey (14th), Jordan Walden (15th), Joakim Soria (18th) and Kyle Farnsworth (19th). Wait on your saves.


• Hey, Ryan Braun owners, are you happy with your first-round pick? He was my No. 1 pick, so I certainly am. Braun's interesting and controversial offseason resulted in him dropping in drafts, as some owners just refused to believe he could provide another MVP-caliber season. He has. Don't be so quick to judge proven players matching performance based on drug testing, because as much as ever there's too much we just don't know about causation and effect. I certainly won't expect mammoth production from current but not likely future San Francisco Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera in 2013, but that hardly means he should go undrafted.


• Following up on a July blog entry about how scarce middle infield production was in the wake of terrific fantasy option Ian Desmond getting hurt, things remain gloomy. Of the top 50 on the Player Rater, four are middle-infield-eligible. This tells me Tulowitzki and Robinson Cano, notably, are first-round picks moving ahead, even if we cannot expect the same production provided by top first basemen or outfielders. I'm also more likely to rely on someone like Dustin Pedroia, coming off a disappointing season, than take three outfielders in the first five rounds. Five of the top six players this season play outfield, and then there's Miguel Cabrera. One could argue all six are first-round picks in 2013, but don't forget the middle infield. Load up on outfielders early and you get stuck with Darwin Barney starting. I'll try to make sure my starting middle infield is set by the sixth round.

When it comes to stolen bases, as also noted recently, quite a few of the league leaders are simply sitting there on free agency, as it's been an odd season. Overall stolen bases are merely slightly down, but only Trout is on pace for 50 steals. The last time a National Leaguer failed to reach 50 steals was in 2002. I'd argue this category is like saves for 2013; sure, overdraft Michael Bourn all you want (he's like teammate Kimbrel), but you'll still need the occasional Tony Campana and Jarrod Dyson (like Dale Thayer and Greg Holland) to get you through the season. There are plenty of saves and steals out there, but the names change so much, you should concentrate on power and scarce positions.


• And finally, to end on an upbeat note, in 2012 we learned that Miguel Cabrera can stick at third base; Ryan Braun can rock again; Edwin Encarnacion can have a consistent, healthy season with different lineup protection; Alex Rios can play well when he wants to; Carlos Beltran can effectively replace Albert Pujols for the champs; Pujols is human; catchers like Buster Posey can return even stronger from a serious leg injury; Chase Headley can hit for power anywhere; Billy Butler can be the story of the All-Star week without doing much; players like Austin Jackson can sustain a high BABIP; and the vertically challenged like Jose Altuve don't need to be able to dunk to thrive. And that's just from top-50 hitters on the Rater. It's been an incredible season so far.


Enjoy the rest of your 2012 season, and I'll keep enjoying it with you with the Monday-through-Friday Box Score Bits and other blog entries. And have a great weekend!

 

[HacheMan]

Heroki

The Yankees attempted to bolster their rotation over the offseason with a couple key acquisitions. The headline-grabber was young fireballer Michael Pineda, who was scooped up from the Mariners for Jesus Montero. Somewhat under the radar, though, was the signing of Hiroki Kuroda, and that Brian Cashman move has paid big dividends.



Kuroda made mincemeat out of the Red Sox lineup Sunday night, spinning eight innings of one-run ball while allowing a measly four hits with no walks and four strikeouts. It continues an unbelievable run from the Japanese import that’s seen him put up a 1.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 42/6 K/BB ratio over his last seven outings. Kuroda now boasts a nifty 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 25 starts this season.



The right-hander was a fine pitcher for the Dodgers, never putting up an ERA higher than 3.76 in his four years there. But, there was reason to believe a downturn in production would be coming in 2012. Kuroda was moving from one of the better parks in baseball for pitchers to one of the best for hitters. He was also moving to the AL East, a division that he posted a 3-8 record and 4.33 ERA against while with the Dodgers. Plus, he was simply a year older, and a 37-year-old without overpowering stuff who’s moving to the best division in baseball could understandably face some skeptics.



Obviously, those factors working against him haven’t fazed Kuroda, who is in the midst of his best season as a pro. There’s no doubt that his hot streak has come at a great time for the Yankees, with both CC Sabathia (elbow) and Andy Pettitte (ankle) on the disabled list and Ivan Nova struggling for consistency. Kuroda will try to keep it going this weekend against the Indians.



Starling Down, Tabata Up



Starling Marte led off the fifth inning of Saturday’s game against the Cardinals with a bunt single, which ignited a two-run rally to tie the game. As it turns out, Marte was bunting because it hurt too much to swing.



The 23-year-old outfielder had suffered a right oblique strain earlier in the game, and when he showed up to the park Sunday sorer than the day before, the Pirates placed him on the disabled list. No timetable for his return has been set, but, as we all know, players usually require more than a minimum stint on the DL when dealing with oblique strains.



Marte has batted just .253 with a .287 OBP, which made him an odd fit for the leadoff spot. But, he was still helping out fantasy owners by going deep four times while also stealing four bases over 23 games.



The native Dominican was replaced on the roster by Venezuelan Jose Tabata, the Pirates’ Opening Day right fielder who had been languishing at Triple-A since his demotion in early July. Tabata batted .297 at Indy with a .353 OBP, and although he failed to homer, he stole five bases over 41 games. He batted leadoff for the Pirates Sunday and should receive regular time while Marte is out, making him a worthy play in NL-only formats.











National League Quick Hits: The Mets will make a decision Monday on what to do with struggling left-hander Johan Santana. It’s possible he’ll be shut down for the season. Santana has posted an 8.27 ERA since his no-hitter and has allowed at least six runs in each of his last five starts ... Jaime Garcia was fantastic Sunday in his first start since early June, giving up just two unearned runs while recording a career-high 10 strikeouts against the Pirates. Garcia has a tough matchup against the Reds the next time out, but it appears it’s safe to return him to fantasy lineups ... Michael Cuddyer was placed back on the disabled list Sunday after aggravating his oblique ailment Saturday. It’s possible the injury will end his season ... Emilio Bonifacio was activated from the DL Sunday after missing a couple weeks following the aggravation of his thumb injury. He’ll be used exclusively in the outfield so as to prevent further issues with the thumb ... Eric Young Jr. exited Sunday’s game with an intercostal strain. He seems likely to require a DL stint ... Tim Stauffer is likely to undergo exploratory surgery on his elbow. He’s out for the season regardless ... Kevin Correia has been moved back to the bullpen as the Pirates go back to a five-man rotation. James McDonald, who had been on the hot seat, keeps his spot after a nice start Friday ... Carlos Ruiz (foot) has been cleared to remove his walking boot. He’s hoping to make a return sometime next month ... Brian McCann could undergo offseason shoulder surgery to remove a cyst and repair a frayed labrum. McCann has dealt with the ailment for much of the year and has required many days off.



American League Quick Hits: David Ortiz (Achilles) expects to be activated from the DL sometime this week. He’s been out since mid-July ... The Red Sox will have a meeting with Carl Crawford Monday, when it will be determined whether the outfielder will undergo Tommy John surgery on his left elbow. Crawford reportedly is in favor of having the season-ending procedure ... Mark Teixeira (wrist) sat out a third straight game Sunday but expects to return to action Monday. The first baseman could need surgery on his left wrist after the season, but he’ll try to gut it out for now ... Denard Span (shoulder) sat out his sixth straight game Sunday and has yet to resume taking batting practice. The Twins think he’ll be ready to return to the lineup in a day or two, but it’s certainly not a guarantee ... The Red Sox are interested in re-signing impending free agent Cody Ross. Ross is making just $3 million this season but has outplayed that deal. He should be able to net a multi-year contract from someone this offseason ... Michael Young went deep Sunday for the first time in 88 games as part of a three-hit, five-RBI day in a win over the Blue Jays. Young now has just four dingers in 496 plate appearances this season ... The Twins are considering booting Nick Blackburn from their rotation, either sending him to the bullpen or again demoting him to the minors. Blackburn holds a 7.39 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 19 starts this season ... Jeremy Guthrie took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the White Sox Sunday and wound up allowing just two unearned runs over 7 2/3 frames. Guthrie hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three outings to lower his ERA from 6.56 to 5.41 ... Brett Anderson’s 30-day rehab window is up, though the A’s have yet to make a decision on when he’ll rejoin the rotation. The left-hander has posted a 4.62 ERA and 18/5 K/BB ratio over 25 1/3 innings over six rehab starts.​

 

[HacheMan]

Analyzing 10 disappointing hitters

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Should Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Upton retain their early-round status in fantasy drafts next spring? Is Ryan Zimmerman really back after a slow start? Was too much expected from Carlos Santana? Will the bell soon toll for Michael Young and Rickie Weeks? The answer to these and other questions will be addressed as we put underperforming hitters "under the microscope" this week.

<offer>Regression can be a powerful force. The enlightening method to demonstrate this is to determine how player performance varies from one year to the next. Below are the results of a simple study, in which only players who accrued 400-plus plate appearances in consecutive seasons were sampled. The years investigated are 2008 to 2011. The data below reveal the percentage of hitters whose home run and steal performance increased, decreased or stayed the same for all applicable seasons over the span. To account for varying amounts of playing time, performance is determined on a per-plate appearance basis. In addition, to remove the bias of seasons that were only a bit better or worse, the results were also determined with a difference of less than 5 percent of performance, and also 10 percent of performance.</offer>


Home runs (2008-2011)

<table><thead><tr><th> Range </th><th> Percent that decreased </th><th> Percent the same </th><th> Percent that increased </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> +/- 0 percent </td><td> 57 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> +/- 5 percent </td><td> 50 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> +/- 10 percent </td><td> 44 </td><td> 20 </td><td> 36 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Stolen bases (2008-2011)

<table><thead><tr><th> Range </th><th> Percent that decreased </th><th> Percent the same </th><th> Percent that increased </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> +/- 0 percent </td><td> 57 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> +/- 5 percent </td><td> 49 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> +/- 10 percent </td><td> 47 </td><td> 14 </td><td> 39 </td></tr></tbody></table>



The take-home message from this data is more than half of the hitter pool populating your fantasy teams next season will hit homers and steal bases at a rate lower than they are doing this season. Since many of your fellow drafters will put too much credence into "what have you done for me lately" and overvalue the inventory based on what they did this season, the key to your 2013 success could be identifying those hitters in the minority, namely those who will improve upon their 2012 campaigns.


There are three types of hitters most likely to enjoy improved production next season:

1. Players still in their growth phase: This has historically been guys between the ages of 24 and 27.


2. Players whose 2012 skills/performance declined for one reason or another, but they return to previous levels: Sometimes, tangible evidence can be cited for this faction, such as an injury or a change in team or league that takes some time for acclimation.


3. Players whose skills remained the same, but they incurred some bad luck: And this misfortune negatively impacted their performance.


Let's get a head start on the 2013 campaign by dissecting the season-to-date numbers of 10 underperforming hitters, with the objective being to identify those players most likely to bounce back next season. When applicable, those players in line to begin their ascent early and improve going forward this season will be noted, in case you are in a league with a late trade deadline. These hitters make for great pickups in keeper leagues or high-risk, high-reward acquisitions if you need to make up ground in non-keeper leagues.

Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks





This year's "Matt Kemp circa 2010" could be the biggest fantasy disappointment of 2012. Upton was expected to build upon his stellar 2011 campaign, which featured a .289 average, 31 homers and 21 steals. Considering Upton is not even 25 years old yet, it was hardly a reach to expect him to at least sustain, if not better, his 2011 numbers.


While Upton's average, power and speed have obviously suffered, it's promising that his strikeout and walk rates are fine. Upton's walk rate is actually better than last year, while his strikeout rate is a tick lower, though still better than his career average. Players who display significantly lower walk rates and/or higher strikeout rates are less likely to rebound. But Upton does not fall into this class. On the other hand, with a mere nine homers, Upton's power has fallen off the charts. The reason for this is two-fold, as his HR/FB rate has plummeted simultaneously along with a severe spike in ground ball rate. For those hoping some of Upton's power has manifested as doubles instead of homers, that doesn't appear to be the case. He has only 18 two-baggers, a rate that is also well below his career norm. Even more disconcerting is that Upton swatted a single homer in July, and has just one thus far in August. Upton's batting average is down to .269, but this is almost solely due to his drop in power, as home runs are hits, too. His BABIP is basically the same as last season, but 20 fewer homers equates to up to 40 points in lost batting average.


The big question is whether Upton's power will resurface next season. To be honest, there is no tangible reason other than pedigree to suggest it will. That is to say that unless Upton is hiding an injury, health is not the cause, and neither is bad luck. That said, his pedigree is strong. You don't hit 84 homers between the ages of 21 and 23, then suddenly forget how to go deep. So instead of being the "next Matt Kemp," my money is on Upton being next season's Adam Dunn, at least in terms of resurgence in power. However, for those looking for a boost down the stretch this season, I'm not so optimistic.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox





Gonzalez has picked it up of late, but the fact remains that his 15 homers is about half of what was anticipated from Gonzalez at this point of the season. His .308 average is fine, and it's supported by a strikeout rate that's right at his career norm. His walk rate is down, which drops his value in OBP leagues, but this can be chalked up to a midseason stretch in which Gonzalez was clearly pressing, trying to make up for the absence of teammates Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.


Unlike many power hitters, Gonzalez does not hit many fly balls, so he must post a better-than-average HR/FB ratio to provide power numbers. Presently, Gonzalez is sporting a ratio that is below league average, but with nine post-All-Star break homers, that is on the rise. Also promising: the 37 doubles Gonzalez has accrued. Not only can the Red Sox first baseman help your team down the stretch, but he should again be worthy of late-first-round/early-second-round status next spring, with only his lack of steals being a pratfall.

Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants


Pence's placement on this underperforming hitters list might seem curious until you recall that he was our 11th-ranked outfielder and 37th-ranked player overall this preseason. Pence currently sits at 98th overall on the ESPN Player Rater, so his inclusion is warranted. The primary culprit is a lower-than-average BABIP, along with a strikeout rate a bit above his career average, resulting in a disappointing batting average. Since runs, RBIs and stolen bases are dependent on hits, Pence's associated production has suffered as a result. That said, he does have a chance at posting 100 RBIs for the first time in his career thanks to an early-season power surge.


Focusing on Pence's BABIP, his hit distribution is almost exactly the same as last season, which suggests bad luck as opposed to fewer line drives or more fly balls. The wild card when it comes to Pence is where he calls home in 2013, as he is a free agent. What can be stated with confidence is that Pence's average should bounce back to its usual near-.300 levels. The power and speed are team-dependent. With respect to his depressed steals total, it's likely that the Astros let Pence run more than the Phillies did earlier this season and the Giants are doing now. Depending on his destination, Pence's "pilfer" total could return to double digits, but don't expect a number in the high teens like early in his tenure with the Astros.

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles





To be fair, the disappointment behind Wieters is more that he still has not realized his full potential, as opposed to actually regressing from last season. By season's end, his homer total is probably going to match that of 2011, while his batting average likely will be only a few points lower. The thing is, many anticipated that Wieters would significantly improve upon his 2011 campaign, so this is more to determine whether 2013 will finally be the season the Orioles' backstop has an elite season.


In terms of skills, Wieters' 2012 season is almost a carbon copy of last season, as he is sporting similar strikeout and walk rates. As suggested, his power is similar, as well. His batting average is down a few ticks on the heels of a slightly lower BABIP, but it's still within his expected range. It can be argued that Wieters is the same player as last season, but in many fantasy owners' eyes, this is disappointing because growth was expected, as evidenced by him being our fourth-ranked catcher this spring. The good thing is that his elite potential is still there, but unlike this past March, next spring you likely won't have to pay for that potential.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals




Back in late June, I advised a slew of Zimmerman owners to give him one more chance and see how he performed during an impending four-game set in Coors Field. Hopefully they heeded that advice; he hit two homers in that series and has hit 11 more since then, posting an impressive .344 average over this span. Normally it's best not to isolate a small sample of a season and instead look at it in total. In that respect, Zimmerman's .281 average with 16 homers is on the disappointing side. However, right around the time Zimmerman visited Colorado, he got a cortisone injection to help ease the pain in his shoulder. While the thin air might have served to jump-start the Nationals' third-sacker, it's apparent he is healthier than he was early in the season. As such, Zimmerman could be a big help down the stretch, as well as a viable candidate at the still-weak hot-corner position next spring. However, keep in mind that he's still an injury risk. Then again, what other top third baseman not named Miguel Cabrera isn't?

Michael Young, 1B, Texas Rangers

Over the past few seasons, there hasn't been a more frustrating player to project than Young, whose basal contact and discipline skills have remained stable, but his BABIP and power numbers have been all over the place. Factor in that Young will be 36 next spring and in the decline phase of his career, and next season again becomes challenging to predict. Will he follow in the footsteps of Derek Jeter and have a comeback season, or will Young continue to slide, especially in the power department? Looking at the power, the Jeter comparison is quite apropos, as like the Yankee shortstop last season, Young's HR/FB rate has significantly dipped. He's hitting a lofty 54 percent of batted balls on the ground, though that still pales in comparison to the 65 percent mark Jeter carries. However, Jeter's HR/FB rate has jumped back up this season. I don't see the same thing happening for Young next year, as his HR/FB rate has been on a steady decline since 2009. At best, it doubles from its present 3.2 percent.


On the other hand, you don't own Young for his power; you own him to supply a staunch batting average buffer so you can pick up low-average/high-power or speed entities elsewhere. So the more pertinent question is, will Young's average bounce back? As stated above, his strikeout rate is still superb and he's still swatting a ton of line drives, it's just that he has been a bit snake-bitten with respect to BABIP. If you were willing to find a place for Placido Polanco circa 2005 through 2010, you should be able to find a spot for Young and his expected .300 average and single-digit homers.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves




It's a bit surprising that there has not been more mention made of Uggla's 2012 scuffles. Unless he miraculously doubles his present total, Uggla will fail to hit 30 homers for the first time since his rookie season in 2006, when he went yard 27 times. Quite curious is the fact his walk rate is actually a career high, while his already-high strikeout rate is even higher than normal. It's the walk rate that is most confusing, unless it's a sign that Uggla has become too selective. Usually, patience leads to better pitches to hit, but Uggla is actually making less contact. When he does connect, he's still hitting the ball with authority; he just isn't clearing the fence with as much regularity.


As was mentioned earlier, homers are hits, too, so when a player of Uggla's ilk is not hitting homers, his average plummets, along with his runs and RBIs. The good news is if you were OK with owning Uggla prior to this season, you likely can get him at a discount next season, and there's no real reason he should not return to the 30-homer level in 2013. Just beware that his floor is lower than the normal player, as we are witnessing this season, since all of his value resides in the homer and associated production.

Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians



For the season, Santana, our No. 2-ranked catcher this spring, is falling way short of the lofty expectations we had for him. However, like Adrian Gonzalez (albeit to a lesser extent), Santana's recent production is a harbinger of an improved 2013 to come, as he has smacked eight of his 13 homers since the All-Star break. The reason this is a good sign is Santana's 2012 walk and strikeout rates are both better than last season; it was just his power that was waning. When projections come out next spring, assuming Santana stays on his current pace and ends the season with 18 or so homers, next spring's projection will be 21 or 22 homers. I'll take the over, but I wouldn't bet on him matching last season's 27. His average will also benefit, assuming he keeps the gains he has made in contact, which is no given yet quite possible based on his pedigree and age.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers




Unfortunately for Weeks' owners, he picked the wrong season to stay healthy, as his numbers are way down across the board, even though he has picked it up a bit recently. His always-problematic contact rate has sunk to a career-low level, though he has maintained an above-average walk rate. Historically, Weeks hits fewer line drives than the league norm, and as a result, his average suffers. Weeks' saving grace has been a nice power-speed combo, at least when healthy (which is, of course, another issue). The problem is his HR/FB rate is in a four-year tailspin, and the Brewers' keystone-sacker is not getting any younger.


Based on him hitting .289 with seven homers since July 1, some owners might be tempted to look to Weeks for help down the stretch, which he could provide. But I'm not carrying that optimism over to next season. Second base is not nearly as weak a position as it has been in the past, and Weeks carries too much of a risk, both in terms of performance and health, for me to make a substantial investment next season. I'll let someone else draft his improved second half, and he'll be their problem.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals





You really didn't think I would pass up another chance to talk about how unlucky Hosmer has been this season, did you? Jokes aside, this is the perfect opportunity to emphasize that with Hosmer on one extreme and Mike Trout on the other, this style of analysis is more about the process than the result. We won't be right 100 percent of the time. Our job is to analyze the data and suggest what is most likely to occur. Will it always come to fruition? Hardly, as those who refused to deal Trout can tell you when taking a break from doing their "I told you so" dance. But if I'm faced with analyzing the numbers Trout has put up 10 more times, I will contend regression is coming 10 more times. And I promise you I will be right more than five times.


The same holds for Hosmer. The next time someone displays the level of misfortune the Royals' first baseman suffered through in the first half, I will again say with confidence he should have a batter second half and not be deterred by the fact Hosmer's skills continue to be strong while his surface stats continue to disappoint. There is likely going to be a strong backlash next spring, pushing Hosmer down the ranks considerably. As such, I expect he will be manning my first base or corner spot in at least a few leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

High-risk, high-upside injury returns

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Roger Clemens is attempting a comeback.



Pardon me for a moment, I need to redo the "Sixty Feet, Six Inches" rankings and squeeze him in on one of the higher tiers.

Wait, what? He's 50?
Never mind, then. Clemens' "comeback" makes about as much sense as the no-out, two-on sacrifice bunt, but at least he picked the right week to announce it, considering this week is chock full of other, more relevant comeback stories.
There's a key difference, though: Clemens' comeback is straight off his couch, while the six pitchers below are returning from injuries. In compiling this week's rankings, I noticed that the majority of risers came from this group, the pitchers recently (or soon to be) activated from the DL. What better time to discuss their individual outlooks? Call it an extended "Three up," with every one of these six pitchers likely to be fantasy-relevant the rest of the way.
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: He's the name you've become used to seeing in the top 10, but after two disabled list stints, with a mere 25 days of active status in between, Sabathia's health has become a question for the first time in years. Although it was a groin problem that originally sidelined him for 18 days in early July, it's elbow stiffness that has him on the shelf this time.
Fortunately for Sabathia, he's scheduled to return Friday at Cleveland, representing a minimum stay, and as colleague Stephania Bell noted at the time of his most recent DL placement, Sabathia's lack of a history of elbow issues -- as well as the fact that the injury itself wasn't in the inner part of the joint -- somewhat eases the concern. However, the Yankees, currently four games up in the American League East race and boasting a magic number of 35 to clinch a playoff spot, might go easy on Sabathia for the remainder of the regular season. He has averaged 7.00 innings per start during his Yankees career, but expect something closer to 6.50 going forward, yet with similar production to his 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for the team. Volume alone, though, explains why he's ranked 16th rather than, say, ninth.
Sabathia's remaining schedule (8 starts): Fri 8/24 @CLE; Wed. 8/29 TOR; Tue. 9/4 @TB; Sun. 9/9 @BAL; Sat. 9/15 TB; Fri. 9/21 OAK; Wed. 9/26 @MIN; Mon. 10/1 BOS.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays: His might be the boldest ranking of the recovering starters, considering he hasn't taken the hill since June 11. But at the time he got hurt, Morrow was performing as a better-than-his-No. 34-ranking starting pitcher, and his stat line in five rehabilitation starts includes a 2.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings. He's tentatively scheduled to return to the Blue Jays' rotation either Friday or Saturday at Baltimore.
Now the question becomes: Will the pre-injury 2012 Morrow, the one who traded velocity and strikeouts for command and a few extra grounders, be the one who returns, or will it be the lots of K's but lots of walks model from 2010 and 2011? Morrow's 0.58 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio during his rehab sure looks more like the 0.71 mark he posted in 2011 than the 0.88 he had earlier in 2012, though his 2.66 walks-per-nine innings ratio looks much more like his 2.78 number of early 2012 than his 3.46 number in 2011. The answer is probably in between, but I'm leaning more upon the walk rate and saying he'll pick up where he left off.
Morrow's remaining schedule (8 starts; assumes he pitches Friday, not Saturday): Fri. 8/24 @BAL; Wed. 8/29 @NYY; Mon. 9/3 BAL; Sun. 9/9 @BOS; Sat. 9/15 BOS; Fri. 9/21 @TB; Wed. 9/26 @BAL; Mon. 10/1 MIN.

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals: With Garcia, we have the advantage of a post-DL stint start in the bank, and what a start it was: eight innings, 10 strikeouts, no walks, no earned runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Most importantly, his fastball averaged its highest velocity in any single start of his season (89.0 mph), and his changeup was responsible for three of his 10 strikeouts, a season high, and generated seven of his 14 swings and misses. He looked like the Garcia of old, able to change speeds, get a decent number of swings and misses and generate a healthy number of ground balls (12 out of 18 balls in play).
Granted, the Pirates as a team have struck out the third-most often since the All-Star break, but that serves more to explain Garcia's better-than-a-K-per-inning performance than it should cause us to discard it. The Pirates, after all, have hit the second-most homers since the break (46), so it's not like it's the easiest matchup anymore. Expect future Garcia outings to fall into more of a 5-K's-in-7-innings line, but he has earned a rankings restoration to near his preseason average draft position (44th among starting pitchers, on average).
Garcia's remaining schedule (8 starts): Sat. 8/25 @CIN; Thu. 8/30 @WAS; Tue. 9/4 NYM; Mon. 9/10 @SD; Sat. 9/15 @LAD; Fri. 9/21 @CHC; Wed. 9/26 @HOU; Tue 10/2 CIN.
Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves: He met the quality start minimums in his first start back from the DL against a Los Angeles Dodgers team sporting Victorino, Kemp, Ethier and Ramirez, meaning that was hardly a cakewalk matchup. Still, Hanson's velocity continues to hover under 90 mph -- he averaged 92.6 in 2010 -- and this is the second consecutive season in which he made a trip to the DL after the All-Star break. Couple that with his taxing delivery, and there are legitimate concerns as to whether he's injury-prone.
Hanson's stuff is of high-enough quality to justify his ranking, but that rank is still a couple of tiers beneath either his 2011 or 2012 ADP value. Part of that accounts for his rising walk rate. Part of it accounts for the risk he'll get hurt again.
Hanson's remaining schedule (8 starts; assumes five-man rotation beginning Aug. 31): Thu. 8/23 @SF; Wed. 8/29 @SD; Tue. 9/4 COL; Sun 9/9 @NYM; Sat. 9/15 WAS; Fri. 9/21 @PHI; Thu. 9/27 @MIA; Tue. 10/2 @PIT.
Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers: His anticipated return date is the haziest of the bunch, but based upon the one run he allowed in six innings in a rehabilitation start Monday for Class A Wisconsin, Marcum should return either Saturday or Sunday at Pittsburgh. The latter would give him back-to-back turns against the strikeout-happy Pirates, so he might warrant a look in start No. 2, the home game, but he'll bear careful attention this weekend either way.
Though Marcum's two-month absence for elbow tightness raises questions about his health looking forward, his 3.33 K-to-walk ratio in 12 2/3 innings in three rehab starts for Wisconsin compares favorably to his 2.67 career number in the big leagues. Just look at his remaining schedule below and say you don't think he might even be under-ranked this week.
Marcum's remaining schedule (8 starts; assumes he takes Mark Rogers' spot beginning Sunday): Sun 8/26 @PIT; Fri. 8/31 PIT; Wed. 9/5 @MIA; Mon. 9/10 ATL; Sun. 9/16 NYM; Sat. 9/22 @WAS; Thu. 9/27 @CIN; Tue. 10/2 SD.
Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics: He's the latest Tommy John returnee, having gone under the knife July 14, 2011, meaning his return to the Athletics' rotation Tuesday comes exactly one year, one month and one week later. Anderson's rehabilitation, however, is hardly complete. The comeback trail from such an injury is lengthy, with many pitchers needing several months of big league action to recapture their pre-surgery form, and most face an innings cap in the first full season following their return to action.
Anderson's rehabilitation-stint statistics aren't overwhelming: He had a 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings spread across six starts, though in his defense he had a 1.78 walks-per-nine innings and 1.40 groundout to air out ratio, which are within range of the 2.31 and 1.46 numbers he posted as a 30-start regular in 2009. He also has been heralded as one of the game's better up-and-coming left-handers, and at 24 years old has tons of career remaining. Anderson might be 2012's late-season low-end helper, a la Tim Hudson in 2009, Jordan Zimmermann in 2010 and Stephen Strasburg in 2011. Here's how those three fared in their brief late-season stints immediately following Tommy John surgery: 19 total starts, 5.12 innings per start, 3.51 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
Anderson's remaining schedule (9 starts; assumes he's replacing Dan Straily in a five-man rotation): Tue. 8/21 MIN; Mon. 8/27 @CLE; Sat. 9/1 BOS; Fri. 9/7 @SEA; Wed. 9/12 @LAA; Tue. 9/18 @DET; Sun. 9/23 @NYY; Fri. 9/28 SEA; Wed. 10/3 TEX.


TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clay Buchholz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jaime Garcia, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kris Medlen, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jarrod Parker, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Fiers, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Sheets, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wei-Yin Chen, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Maholm, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Liriano, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Vargas, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ross Detwiler, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Patrick Corbin, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Diamond, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harvey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Marco Estrada, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Quintana, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Buehrle, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Blanton, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Feldman, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddy Garcia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Cobb, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Richard, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Karstens, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Franklin Morales, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Guthrie, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Villanueva, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Straily, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lucas Harrell, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tyler Skaggs, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




Streamer's delight




Among streaming starter options -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent or fewer of ESPN leagues -- for the upcoming week, here are my picks by day:
Tuesday, August 21: Scott Feldman versus Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, August 22: Hisashi Iwakuma versus Cleveland Indians
Thursday, August 23: Bartolo Colon at Tampa Bay Rays (another weak day for streaming options)
Friday, August 24: Patrick Corbin versus San Diego Padres
Saturday, August 25: Jose Quintana versus Seattle Mariners
Sunday, August 26: Lucas Harrell at New York Mets
Monday, August 27: Bronson Arroyo at Arizona Diamondbacks
Past picks

Tuesday, August 14: Lucas Harrell -- W, QS, 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
Wednesday, August 15: Justin Germano -- W, QS, 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Thursday, August 16: Kris Medlen -- W, QS, 9 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Friday, August 17: Hisashi Iwakuma -- W, QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Saturday, August 18: Patrick Corbin -- W, 7 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Sunday, August 19: Clayton Richard -- W, QS, 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Monday, August 20: Joe Saunders -- 3 2/3 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Week's total: 7 GS, 6 W (85.7%), 5 QS (71.4%), 49 IP, 44 H, 16 ER, 5 BB, 33 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Season total: 126 GS, 57 W (45.2%), 68 QS (54.0%), 767 1/3 IP, 731 H, 327 ER, 246 BB, 568 K, 3.84 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Three up




Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers: He has won six consecutive starts since the All-Star break -- five of them were quality starts -- and has a 1.30 ERA that ranks second among qualified starters during that span. Control has been a plus; he has allowed two or fewer walks in each of his past eight starts, which is a career-best streak for him. Billingsley also has limited left-handed hitters to a .118 batting average against his offspeed pitches since the break, throwing 76 of his 87 offspeed offerings low, away or both, per ESPN Stats & Information, and he has thrown a pitch in the zone 64 percent of the time in two- or three-ball counts since the break, up from 54 percent before the break. Whether he can sustain this both through year's end and into 2013 is unclear -- the guess is that he probably can't -- but for now he's well worth having active every time out.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets: He continues to impress in his Mets audition; three of his past four outings have been quality starts, and he has a 10.20 K's-per-nine ratio despite four of his five starts thus far coming in road games. During his brief big league career, Harvey has generated misses on 29 percent of hitters' swings, the sixth-best rate of any qualified starting pitcher since his July 26 big league debut. Evidently, he has swing-and-miss stuff at this level, and although opponents eventually might catch up to him, there's no hint that it's imminent.
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: He flourished during the first two months of both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, but while he faded thereafter in 2011, he has actually improved in performance since the All-Star break this season. Six of his past seven outings have been quality starts, and he has a 2.17 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 2.83 K-to-walk ratio since the break, every one of those numbers right in line with (or better than) his year-to-date numbers and substantially improved upon any single past season in his big league career. Four and a half months of season represents a sizable enough sample that Lohse can safely be declared an every-start pitcher from this point forward.

Three down




Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Angels: The return to the American League hasn't gone smoothly for Greinke; he's another big-name player who has struggled initially as a result of leaving the National League Central for the Angels (see Pujols, Albert). Like Pujols, Greinke might eventually return to his high-strikeout, low-WHIP ways, but it's troubling that he has now gone four consecutive starts of allowing four runs or more, the longest such streak in his career, per ESPN Stats & Information. His strikeout rate is down -- he has averaged 7.88 per nine with the Angels, down from 8.93 with the Brewers -- and his walk rate is up (3.66 per nine with the Angels compared to 2.05 with the Brewers). That quells much of the FIP argument in Greinke's favor from earlier in the year; more walks and fewer K's adversely impact a pitcher's FIP.
Dan Haren, Angels: Here we go again. Haren, who surrendered 10 earned runs on 12 hits in seven innings combined in home games against the Rays and Mariners, has been pushed back in the Angels' rotation, as whispers have begun that they might soon consider a four-man rotation, with him excluded. The move was explained, per the Los Angeles Times, as an opportunity for the right-hander to throw several bullpen sessions to improve his release point and clean up mechanical issues caused when he was trying to pitch through a back injury. Considering Haren's season-long struggles, however, those issues hardly seem like an overnight fix.
Johan Santana, New York Mets: Speaking of whispers, now some have surfaced that the Mets might consider shutting down Santana, who is in his first season back from capsule surgery, following the Sept. 1 roster expansion. He hasn't had a quality start since June 30, a span of five starts, and he hasn't recorded more than 15 outs (five full innings) once during that time, either. Santana's 117 innings and 21 starts for the season might not seem like much, but they're not necessarily easy for a 33-year-old who didn't throw a pitch in 2011. Consider formulating a contingency plan now if you're a Santana owner.

 

[HacheMan]

Thoughts on Carl Crawford, Sox hitters

Eric Karabell

In Carl Crawford's final two seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays, he hit a cumulative .306 and averaged 17 home runs, 79 RBIs, 103 runs scored and 54 stolen bases. He also missed a total of 14 games. I thought Crawford was likely to be a tad overrated after signing with the Boston Red Sox, for real-life and fantasy, but I never imagined this: In his first two years with the Red Sox, Crawford hit .260 and played in a total of 161 games, with just 14 home runs and 23 steals.

We speak in past tense because Crawford's 2012 campaign is finished, and it's certainly possible some of his 2013 regular season will be compromised as well. He's scheduled for Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow later this week, and it, uh, takes more than a few weeks to heal from that. Crawford has not only been a major disappointment on the field since signing a $142 million deal, but the Red Sox and fantasy owners certainly seem to be looking at more issues next year. How did this happen, and how do fantasy owners -- the Red Sox is another issue -- avoid this in the future?


<offer>The truth is it's nearly impossible to portend danger like this when filling fantasy rosters. I was more skeptical about Crawford for this season than most, as he entered the campaign already injured, and all we got from him was 31 games. He didn't exactly star in those games, either. I don't believe in players needing a change of scenery to get back on track, not when they're 31 and have a long track record of success. This isn't the pressure of playing in a major media market, either. The guy was hurt. He's still hurt. However, he never had a track record for being brittle.</offer>


ESPN Stats & Info recently ran through a list of injuries to members of the $100 million club, and it's quite startling. My take isn't to worry about players earning exorbitant financial windfalls, and in this case most of the players aren't on the verge of retirement, either. Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki aren't too old to earn back first-round status -- neither is Crawford, for that matter -- and it wasn't their wallets that got them hurt.



Crawford will not show up among my initial top 30 outfielders for 2013. While he showed up at No. 68 in ESPN's average live draft results for this season, he purposely missed my top 100. That said, this hardly means Crawford can't be a late-round sleeper or bargain selection in the future, and I'd caution those in keeper/dynasty formats from simply sending him packing, too. In fact, oddly enough, now is the time someone like Crawford can become valuable in those setups. Perhaps your keeper league still allows trading in late August. A year ago, I traded for Adam Dunn in a deep league, just in case he convinced me the following spring he was ready to resume normal numbers. It turns out he did. In another league, I scooped up Jake Peavy, and that has worked out, too. I hope this theory works for players not on the Chicago White Sox!The recovery time for non-pitchers undergoing Tommy John surgery is not the same as for pitchers. Perhaps Crawford is fully healed for spring training and hits a ton in March games, but that's likely to send his value soaring, which is generally a cause for concern, a sign to let others overpay. In dynasty/keeper formats, owners should always think about the future, and this includes the year 2014. This used to be a very special, talented player. Hopefully the Red Sox and fantasy owners see return on their considerable investment in 2014.

As for other Red Sox hitters, I have a few thoughts:

• I recently added catcher Ryan Lavarnway in a deep league, but I don't expect a high batting average or regular playing time. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a prime example of someone owned in fantasy leagues due to season stats, not recent trends. He's hitting .195 with only three home runs since the All-Star break. Move on. Lavarnway deserves a chance to show what he can do.


• Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .369 since the All-Star break, with nine home runs and 40 RBIs. Yes, he was disappointing in the first half, but he's fine now. He'll probably end up in the 20-30 range in my 2013 rankings.

• Dustin Pedroia has been dealing with a thumb problem for, quite literally, months. He'll be in that same 20-30 range in my ranks as well, at worst. Just look at his 2011 numbers. He can do that again when healthy.


• I'd like to see hotshot defensive shortstop Jose Iglesias play regularly in September, but I don't think he's close to being ready to help fantasy owners offensively. I see Freddy Galvis, frankly.


• Will Middlebrooks stopped hitting after the Kevin Youkilis trade, which wasn't surprising. I view Middlebrooks as a future 25-homer guy who hits around .260. Perhaps he'll knock in more runs than most third basemen thanks to the options ahead of him in the lineup, but I view him as a borderline top-10 third baseman, in part because of his poor walk/strikeout ratio.


• Jacoby Ellsbury is going to be a huge bargain in 2013 drafts, because his 2012 numbers won't be special. Ellsbury is supposedly dealing with a mysterious leg situation, as manager Bobby Valentine has mentioned, or his injured shoulder is a still a problem. Regardless, he's not hitting much. I don't expect 30/30 next year, but 20/40 is possible.


• David Ortiz was supposed to return from his DL stint more than a week ago, and now I'm starting to wonder if neither player nor team is in much of a hurry for him to resume his incredibly productive season. Sure, he might come back within a week, but if his sore Achilles acts up again even once, why risk using him at all? Why would he risk it? Ortiz is again a pending free agent, but he has a 1.023 OPS, which currently leads baseball. I'd think Ortiz would love to take the top OPS in baseball into contract negotiations.

 

[HacheMan]

Drew Bound for the Bay

The A’s made a late-night trade Monday that they hope will upgrade a season-long production issue at shortstop.



Stephen Drew will be reunited with former manager Bob Melvin in Oakland, as he was acquired from the Diamondbacks in exchange for shortstop prospect Sean Jamieson. The two sides had tried to work out a deal prior to the trade deadline but were obviously unable at that time to cross the finish line.



It’s an interesting deal from both perspectives. The D’Backs are still in the NL West and Wild Card races, and they will now have to employ a combination of Willie Bloomquist, Jacob Elmore and John McDonald at shortstop. But, Drew’s production since returning from the disabled list (.193/.290/.311 with two homers over 40 games) has been lacking, and Arizona will save significant money by moving him.



From the A’s side of things, they’re likely anxious to get anyone other than Cliff Pennington into the lineup. Pennington is a career .248/.313/.354 hitter that’s batting just .198/.265/.284 this season, and he’s sporting an ugly .146/.234/.220 line since the All-Star break.



Although Drew’s production since the beginning of 2011 isn’t anything to write home about, he’s been unlucky from a BABIP (.242) perspective this year, and he, of course, has a track record of well above average power for a shortstop. It’s not often that the A’s make a trade to take on salary, but their pitching has put them in playoff position, and they could use a jolt of offense. It’s an admirable gamble from general manager Billy Beane.



Tommy John for Crawford



From the Department of Obvious: Carl Crawford’s first two seasons in Boston haven’t gone well.



After batting just .255/.289/.405 last season in the first year of a seven-year, $142 million deal, Crawford’s 2012 campaign is set to end after just 31 games. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery on his left elbow Thursday.



Crawford underwent surgery on his left wrist in January, which is why he originally was placed on the disabled list to start the season. But, the outfielder injured his elbow in April, and that ultimately became the bigger concern. He returned in mid-July and was batting .306/.307/.556 in 18 games in August, but the pain in Crawford’s elbow from throwing just became too much to deal with.



Typical recovery time from Tommy John surgery for a position player is 6-8 months, which means Crawford should have a good shot to be ready for the start of the 2013 season. As a former top-five fantasy player that’s coming off poor production and injuries the last two years, he’ll be an interesting guy to track in drafts next spring.











National League Quick Hits: Johan Santana will undergo an MRI on his back Tuesday. The Mets had planned on Santana making at least another start or two before being shut down, but it’s possible the back ailment could signal the end of his season ... Shaun Marcum (elbow) will rejoin the Brewers’ rotation this weekend after tossing six scoreless innings in his final rehab start Monday. It’s possible Randy Wolf will lose his rotation spot as a result, though it’s more likely that one of the team’s younger starters will be moved to the bullpen ... Melky Cabrera could reportedly face further discipline from Major League Baseball. The outfielder created a fake website and fake supplement in hopes of trying to dupe investigators during the appeals process of his 50-game suspension for testing positive for synthetic testosterone ... The Braves signed Lyle Overbay to a minor league contract. He’ll get in some at-bats at Triple-A Gwinnett before being added as a bench bat when rosters expand ... The Padres released Jason Bartlett Monday. He hasn’t played since mid-May due to a knee injury ... The Pirates designated Juan Cruz for assignment and will release him if he clears waivers. He should be picked up by someone ... Tyler Skaggs was scratched from his scheduled start at Triple-A Reno Monday and could be in line to start one of the games of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Marlins ... Jonathan Lucroy went deep twice and drove in four runs in Monday’s win over the Cubs. He’s batting .328/.379/.554 for the season ... Giancarlo Stanton also had a pair of bombs Monday while plating four runs himself. He’s gone deep five times over the last five games and now has 26 dingers in 93 games this season.



American League Quick Hits: Roger Clemens has signed a contract with the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent Atlantic League. The Astros watched Clemens work out before he signed, and there’s an outside shot that they could give him a look next month in an effort to boost ticket sales ... Denard Span underwent an MRI on his clavicle Monday and will undergo another one on his shoulder Tuesday. He’s missed six straight games, though the Twins don’t seem antsy to place him on the disabled list ... Brett Anderson (elbow) will rejoin the A’s rotation on Tuesday against the Twins. He’s taking the rotation spot of Dan Straily, who has been optioned to Triple-A ... The A’s will have another decision to make about their rotation pretty soon, as A.J. Griffin (shoulder) is slated to make the first of two rehab starts Wednesday. He’s been terrific in eight starts for the big club, but it’s possible the A’s won’t have room for him ... Alejandro De Aza (oblique) sat out his third straight game Monday and is expected to be placed on the disabled list. DeWayne Wise will fill in for him in center field ... Mark Teixeira (wrist) returned to the lineup Monday and went 2-for-4 with two RBI. He’s likely going to have to deal with some soreness in his left wrist for the remainder of the season ... Nick Blackburn was outrighted to Triple-A Monday. The Twins will replace him in the rotation with Liam Hendriks.​

 

[HacheMan]

Finding stolen bases late

Will minor league wonder Billy Hamilton get into the mix late in the season?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It's not often that a minor leaguer gets the headliner's billing in "Hit Parade," but what Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton has done this season warrants such press.

In case you missed it -- and you might have if you're not an avid follower of minor league baseball -- Hamilton set the single-season stolen base record for a player in any professional league on Tuesday night, swiping four bags in the first game of a doubleheader for Double-A Pensacola, to give him 147 for the season. That shattered Vince Coleman's 29-year-old record of 145, set for Class A Macon back in 1983. Hamilton's prowess on the base paths is nothing short of remarkable; here is how he compares to some of the single-season all-time bests, both major league (on the left) and minor league (on the right):



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 26%; vertical-align: bottom;">Player</th><th style="width: 8%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Year</center></th><th style="width: 8%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>SB</center></th><th style="width: 8%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>G</center></th><th style="width: 2px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="width: 26%; vertical-align: bottom;">Player</th><th style="width: 8%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Year</center></th><th style="width: 8%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>SB</center></th><th style="width: 8%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center>G</center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Rickey Henderson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1982</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">130</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">149</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Billy Hamilton</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2012</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">147</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">120</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Lou Brock</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1974</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">118</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">153</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Vince Coleman</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1983</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">145</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">113</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Vince Coleman</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1985</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">110</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">151</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Donnell Nixon</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1983</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">144</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">135</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Vince Coleman</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1987</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">109</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">151</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">James Johnston</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1913</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">124</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">201</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Rickey Henderson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1983</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">108</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">145</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Jeff Stone</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1981</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">123</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">134</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Vince Coleman</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1986</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">107</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">154</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Alan Wiggins</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1980</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">120</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">135</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Maury Wills</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1962</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">104</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">165</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Allan Lewis</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1966</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">116</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">131</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Rickey Henderson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1980</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">100</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">158</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center></td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ralph Myers</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1912</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">115</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">159</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ron LeFlore</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1980</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">97</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">139</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ovid Nicholson</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1912</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">111</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">123</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Omar Moreno</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1980</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">96</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">162</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Marcus Lawton</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1985</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">111</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">141</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Ty Cobb</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1915</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">96</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">156</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> <center> </center> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Chris Morris</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">2001</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">111</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">134</td></tr></tbody></table>




It's fitting that Hamilton is bringing the stolen base back into the headlines because, if you hadn't noticed, the steal is -- at least somewhat -- back in vogue, both the rate of attempts and success rates in the category up since the beginning of 2011. This season's 73.7 percent success rate is the highest in any season since 2007's 74.4, and it's the second best seasonal number since 1950 (73.8 percent). Meanwhile, calculating steals attempts as a rate per times on base, the rates in both 2011 and 2012 represent the highest since back in the 1990s.


Imagine how much those numbers might shift if Hamilton indeed is promoted in September, even if only to serve in a pinch-running role?


It was the June 28 edition of "Relief Efforts" that focused on the rising rate of strikeouts for closers, and how that impacted the closer market, specifically low-K pitchers like Jonathan Broxton and Brett Myers. With steals somewhat on the rise, it's becoming more important to adjust your strategy in the category in Rotisserie, just as you might have reassessed your closers back then.

To wit: A zero-stolen base player, as measured by this season's Player Rater, rates a minus-0.64 in the category, and remember, we've got a little less than one-quarter of the season left to play (meaning that number could conceivably drop). Last season that player was worth minus-0.61, and in 2010 he was worth minus-0.57. Meanwhile, this year's leader in the category, Mike Trout, scores a 5.26. The 2011 leader, to compare, scored a 6.53, and the leader in 2010 scored 7.44.


That's not to say that Trout's contributions are overrated and his expectations should be tempered, not by a long shot. The point is that his performance in that singular category hasn't carried quite the weight that it might have a year or two ago, being that the replacement level in stolen bases has risen. These facts also illustrate that the drain of a slow, clunky runner, a zero-steal lock, on your fantasy team is increasing, and you can no longer casually ignore the category. The upshot: Speedsters like Trout, who contribute in other categories, are becoming all the more important in Rotisserie leagues.


That in mind, let's help you, the fantasy owner, with your stretch-run steals strategy. Listed below are some overvalued and undervalued picks for steals, broken down by a variety of categories. This is not an all-encompassing list of everyone who steals bases -- that'd take hours for you to sift through. It is merely a discussion of players who might warrant reassessment looking forward.


The obvious: Trout, Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis, Shane Victorino, Jose Reyes, Coco Crisp, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Altuve and Jacoby Ellsbury, naturally, all rank among the most attractive sources of steals.


Underrated



<!-- begin player card -->

Ben Revere

#11 RF
Minnesota Twins

2012 STATS

• GM85
• HR0
• RBI25
• R48
• OBP.346
• AVG.316

<!-- end player card -->

Ben Revere: That he remains available in 14.8 percent of ESPN leagues is somewhat inexplicable, the only logical guess as to the reason being either: (A) People are gun-shy considering he has batted .217 with only one stolen bases in his past 10 games, or (B) Revere's owners might look at the 117-game sample of his 2011 and see an image of a one-category contributor (34 steals, .267/.310/.309 triple-slash line, 56 runs). The truth, however, is that the larger picture of Revere is a player with skills somewhat similar to -- and arguably greater than -- teammate Denard Span's: Revere, this season, has a .346 on-base percentage (Span's is .351); Revere has 29 steals (Span had 26 in a season as recently as 2010); and Revere sported .326/.383/.404 lifetime minor league triple-slash rates (Span's were .286/.355/.356 and he has .285/.359/.389 rates so far in the majors).


<!-- begin player card -->

Will Venable

#25 RF
San Diego Padres

2012 STATS

• GM113
• HR8
• RBI36
• R45
• OBP.329
• AVG.256

<!-- end player card -->

Will Venable: The reason he flies beneath the radar in so many leagues -- he's spoken for in only 1.5 percent of ESPN leagues -- is that Venable, simply put, is a platoon major leaguer. He's a lifetime .213/.293/.276 hitter against left-handers, .216/.310/.333 this season. The Padres, however, use Venable properly, which diminishes his batting-average risk, and as a result of that he's a much easier player to mix and match appropriately. He's well worth slotting in during his road games, or against teams with weak-armed catchers, and it's not too difficult to pick the matchups to avoid (the opposites).


<!-- begin player card -->

Erick Aybar

#2 SS
Los Angeles Angels

2012 STATS

• GM105
• HR7
• RBI36
• R43
• OBP.312
• AVG.276

<!-- end player card -->

Erick Aybar: If he's still available in your league, consider this your final opportunity to scoop him up. He remains out there in more than 30 percent of ESPN leagues, despite his having batted .400 (20-for-50) with three home runs, seven RBIs and four stolen bases in 13 games in the month of August. Aybar is one of these players who isn't only worth your consideration because of his speed; it's that he's tremendously underrated in terms of everything else, too. He has a .188 well-hit average since the All-Star break, considerably higher than his .166 mark from 2009 to 2012 combined; and he has eight extra-base hits in 23 games, after only 31 in 81 contests before the break. Aybar has the power to hit one out on occasion, he's a safe batting-average source and he's one of the best base stealing shortstops around.


Overrated



<!-- begin player card -->

Drew Stubbs

#6 CF
Cincinnati Reds

2012 STATS

• GM104
• HR14
• RBI38
• R67
• OBP.296
• AVG.230

<!-- end player card -->

Drew Stubbs: As a player who has in both of his full big league seasons (2010-11) managed at least 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases, Stubbs might strike you as a multi-category dynamo. He's also on pace for 18 homers and 37 steals, giving him three such seasons in a row. But this isn't a matter of his final seasonal line; it's the up-and-down experience of owning him in order to get all of those 18 homers and 37 steals onto your score sheet. Stubbs is notoriously streaky, his steals contributions the one "bankable" asset during his cold spells, but consider this: This August he has six steals in 19 games … but also a .203 batting average and one home run. And in a 23-game stretch in May, he stole six bases in 23 games … but also batted .186 with four RBIs. The sum of Stubbs' contributions probably warrants his inclusion on any fantasy roster all year, but owning him means accepting the aggravation of his painfully poor cold spells.


<!-- begin player card -->

Emilio Bonifacio

#1 CF
Miami Marlins

2012 STATS

• GM64
• HR1
• RBI11
• R30
• OBP.330
• AVG.258

<!-- end player card -->

Emilio Bonifacio: Injuries seem to be catching up to him, as he left Tuesday's game early with a knee issue and twice before this season he has been on the disabled list with a thumb problem. Since Bonifacio's first DL stint -- meaning between his two stints as well as since his return on Aug. 19 -- he's a .245 hitter with a .297 on-base percentage, so his 10 steals on 12 tries is a bit overzealous pace for a player who has been on base via hit, walk or hit batsman only 30 times during that span. Remember, what made Bonifacio one of 2011's biggest breakthroughs was his rising walk rate; he had a 9.2 percent walk rate last season. He has a 6.8 percent walk rate since his first DL stint, by comparison.


<!-- begin player card -->

Carlos Gomez

#27 CF
Milwaukee Brewers

2012 STATS

• GM99
• HR12
• RBI34
• R51
• OBP.302
• AVG.254

<!-- end player card -->

Carlos Gomez: He has been a boon to fantasy owners who scooped him up during his recent hot spell, which began approximately at the beginning of July and has extended into this month. But now, looking closer at Gomez's statistics, it's time to temper expectations looking forward. Sure, he has three home runs in 18 games in the month of August. But he also has a .294 on-base percentage and only four steals, and his 4.4 percent walk rate is awfully low for a player whom some felt might be reaching a breakthrough point in his career. Gomez is still one of the more free-swinging players in baseball, his 38 percent chase rate since the All-Star break 11th highest among qualified hitters, and that makes him a high-risk candidate in the batting-average category as well as a player unlikely to get on base consistently … potentially limiting his number of stolen-base chances.


The dicey speedster



<!-- begin player card -->

Juan Pierre

#10 LF
Philadelphia Phillies

2012 STATS

• GM101
• HR1
• RBI22
• R44
• OBP.345
• AVG.307

<!-- end player card -->

Juan Pierre: He's fourth in the majors in steals (31) and is batting .307, making him look awfully similar to the Pierre of his prime years. In addition, after being relegated mostly to a bench role immediately following the trades of Victorino and Hunter Pence, Pierre returned to a semi-regular role following the injury to Nate Schierholtz (broken big toe), starting seven of the Phillies' past 11 games. Still, that's not the portrait of a regular, at least not to quite the levels of playing time he received before the All-Star break (25 starts in the Phillies' final 34 first-half games). Pierre also has two playing time risk factors: We don't yet know if he has snuck through waivers, perhaps making him a trade candidate into a backup role elsewhere, and Schierholtz, whom the Phillies had counted on auditioning for a 2013 spot down the stretch, hasn't yet been declared out for the year.



TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Trout, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Upton, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Goldschmidt, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nelson Cruz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Allen Craig, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Morse, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Trumbo, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rios, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neil Walker, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kevin Youkilis, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Corey Hart, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Altuve, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> B.J. Upton, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Desmond Jennings, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Howard, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Santana, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Revere, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Utley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kubel, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erick Aybar, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Montero, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Torii Hunter, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rickie Weeks, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anthony Rizzo, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Rasmus, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jayson Werth, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfonso Soriano, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Coco Crisp, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Desmond, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Todd Frazier, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Morneau, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Pierzynski, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Markakis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rajai Davis, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Omar Infante, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Uggla, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Manny Machado, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Espinosa, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jesus Montero, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ike Davis, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ichiro Suzuki, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Doumit, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Stubbs, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cameron Maybin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rodriguez, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Howard Kendrick, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Belt, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Ludwick, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Johnson, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dexter Fowler, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Hill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Salvador Perez, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gomez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Denard Span, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alcides Escobar, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Garrett Jones, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Lucroy, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Jay, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




And what of Hamilton himself?


Certainly you've heard the whispers that the Reds might promote Hamilton in September, if not to take over as the starting shortstop (unlikely), at least to serve as a pinch runner (possible). Hamilton's absence from the 40-man roster keeps such chatter in the "rumors" column, but he might be an asset manager Dusty Baker would enjoy down the stretch. Examining Baker's 2011, his Reds finished among the upper half in the majors in stolen base attempts (15th, 147), and had the second most runners put in motion (226), an odd level of reliance upon speed considering the Reds had only one player manage more than 15 steals (Stubbs, 40) and lacked much in the way of speedsters on the entire roster.


Let's examine Hamilton from a per-game steals rate perspective. He has averaged 1.23 steals per game played thus far in the minor leagues, and 1.16 per team games. There are 12 games remaining in Pensacola's schedule, meaning he'd steal 14 more bases there at his current pace per team games, giving him 161 total in the minor leagues. There are then 26 scheduled Reds games from Sept. 4, the day after Pensacola's schedule ends, and the conclusion of the regular season. If he played regularly and stole bases at the same rate, he'd swipe 30 in a month's time at the major league level. Thirty!


Still, that's assuming Hamilton is recalled that day and steals at anywhere near the pace he was on in the minors, which is highly unlikely. In a 10-team, mixed redraft league, that makes Hamilton potentially a premature pickup. After all, the history of "designated pinch runners" isn't lengthy, with Herb Washington of the 1974 Oakland Athletics the most notable example (29 steals, 0 plate appearances). Perhaps the most relevant recent example is that of Jarrod Dyson, who made 12 of his 26 appearances in 2011 as a pinch runner and stole 11 bases despite 53 PAs.


NL-only owners might want to stash Hamilton now in the event he does get promoted, being that he plays the thinner shortstop position. But fantasy owners should set their expectations in the 10-game, 10-PA, 6-8 steal range, with anything more than that considered gravy.


Three up



Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: The arrow is certainly pointing upward as it pertains to Howard's value, and it's not only because he sports .254/.331/.492 triple-slash rates, eight home runs and 23 RBIs in 34 games since the All-Star break. It's more about his improving health, illustrated by his 31 starts in 36 team games during that span (and 16 in the Phillies' past 18). Compare Howard's season-to-date rate statistics and he's not far off his past-year performances; he has .226 isolated power (.250 from 2009 to 2012 combined), a 28.6 home run/fly ball percentage (20.8 percent from 2009 to 2012) and 55 percent combined rate of fly balls and line drives (61 percent from 2009 to 2012). The homer/fly ball percentage shows that Howard has been a tad fortunate in the home run department, and his .173 well-hit average isn't quite up to his usual standards (.261 from 2009 to 2012). But Howard's stats are excellent considering his lengthy rehabilitation, and he has an outstanding track record in the month of September, with .306/.422/.649 lifetime triple-slash rates in the month (.290/.417/.522 in 2011).


Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins: Go ahead and say it, he doesn't play any more games at either Coors Field or Chase Field this season, and those are the two venues at which he's a combined 10-for-25 (.400 AVG) with five home runs in his past six games. Still, credit him for his power, specifically those five homers. Per Hittrackeronline.com, he has hit them an average of 451 feet, a total of 2,255 feet and every one of them would've cleared the fences in all 30 big league ballparks. Stanton has his light-tower power back, and it makes him an excellent bet to finish among the top 25 hitters from this point forward.


Nick Swisher, New York Yankees: He's a .364/.462/.655 hitter with four home runs, 14 RBIs and 14 runs scored in his past 14 games, and before you declare the usual "small sample caveat," be aware that it came during a period of the Yankees' schedule that wasn't exactly easy from a competitive angle. Swisher is trending upward at a key time both in the real and fantasy game, and with other injuries to Yankees hitters he has snuck in as the No. 2 man in the lineup on all 14 occasions. Here's the kicker: He's playing for a new contract, so it's not unthinkable he's kicking up his game as he seeks a big winter payday.


Three down



Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays: Setbacks with his rib injury cast doubts upon his fantasy prospects the remainder of the year, and I'll admit that I seriously considered removing him from my Top 125 overall. Per the Blue Jays' official website, the team hasn't dismissed the possibility that his season might be finished. "We haven't come to that point in time yet," said manager John Farrell. "The most important thing is for him to get back to being symptom-free and to progress from there. But we can't rule anything out at this point."


Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves: He has played 14 games in the month of August, has 54 PAs and 44 at-bats … and has but six hits, all singles, for a .136 batting average. What further evidence do you need that his shoulder injury, which has cost him five of 20 Braves games in the month, is hampering his hitting? McCann has a .167 well-hit average and 19.0 percent strikeout rate in August; those compare unfavorably to his .265 and 16.2 percent rates from 2009 to 2012 combined.


David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: Without a definitive timetable on his return from an Achilles injury and the Red Sox's season slipping further from their grasp by the day, Ortiz's fantasy ceiling continues to lower. He has resumed taking batting practice and might be within days of activation, but at this point he has been sidelined for 37 days and there's still the risk of a setback. Expect the Red Sox to take a conservative approach, and with them in jeopardy of being a non-factor in the wild-card race -- some might argue they already are -- they might even consider shutting Ortiz down for the year if he missteps.


New position eligibility



The following players have become eligible at new positions -- it's 10 games to qualify at a new spot -- in ESPN standard leagues during the past week: Luis Cruz (3B), Marwin Gonzalez (3B), Jeff Keppinger (1B), Manny Machado (3B), Donnie Murphy (3B), Yamaico Navarro (OF), Jean Segura (SS), Nick Swisher (1B), Ryan Wheeler (3B).


Nearing new position eligibility



The following players are within two games of earning new position eligibility: Jeff Baker (8 games played at 2B), Yuniesky Betancourt (8 games played at 3B), Steve Clevenger (9 games played at 1B), Jason Donald (8 games played at SS), Yan Gomes (8 games played at 3B), Adeiny Hechavarria (9 games played at 3B), Elliot Johnson (9 games played at 2B), Munenori Kawasaki (8 games played at 2B), Jayson Nix (8 games played at 2B), Drew Sutton (8 games played at 2B), Chad Tracy (9 games played at 1B), Mark Trumbo (8 games played at 3B), Justin Turner (8 games played at SS), Omar Vizquel (9 games played at SS), Brett Wallace (8 games played at 3B), Ben Zobrist (9 games played at SS).

 

[HacheMan]

Bet On Brett
A’s left-hander Brett Anderson took a major league mound on Tuesday night for the first time since June 5, 2011. What followed was either excellence or something close to it.

Anderson allowed just one run on four hits over seven spectacular innings as the A’s topped the Twins by a score of 4-1. He walked none, struck out six and tossed 62 of his 86 pitches for strikes, looking much like his old dominant self.

Anderson posted a 2.80 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 75/22 K/BB ratio across 112 1/3 innings in 2010 before elbow issues temporarily derailed his career the following season. Now free and clear of his rehab from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery, the 24-year-old southpaw looks ready to regain his status as a top-end big league starter.

Get him active in fantasy leagues. Or grab him off the waiver wire if he’s still available.



Waino Suddenly Looking Quite Bueno

Well, maybe “suddenly” is the wrong word.

Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has been on fire since the All-Star break and was at it again on Tuesday night against the Astros, throwing his second shutout of the season while matching a career-high with 12 strikeouts as St. Louis rolled to an easy 7-0 victory. Dominating that dismantled Houston lineup isn’t any great achievement, but Waino is carving up all comers.

The 30-year-old right-hander has allowed just four runs and boasts a 31/5 K/BB ratio in 31 innings this month. He had a 4.62 ERA after his start against the Reds on July 13. It’s now 3.65.

Wainwright, who is 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery, should be a force down the stretch as the Cards look to get on a roll.



Darvish May Have To Miss Next Start

Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish felt some discomfort in his right leg while trying to throw his regular between-starts bullpen session on Tuesday afternoon at the Ballpark in Arlington. He eventually completed the 40-pitch workout but had to stop several times to stretch and there’s some concern about his availability for his scheduled Thursday start against the Twins.

Darvish has posted an underwhelming 4.51 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 23 starts this season, but he’s fanned a whopping 172 batters over his first 147 2/3 major league innings and should carry plenty of fantasy value down the stretch on a dangerous Rangers team.

The Texas medical staff will reevaluate him on Wednesday morning before deciding what to do about Thursday night. Their initial diagnosis for his sudden ailment was “right quad tightness.” We’ll find out soon if it’s more serious than that.



National League Quick Hits: Reds closer Aroldis Chapman racked up his 30th save of the season on Tuesday against the Phillies … Johan Santana (back) is unlikely to make his next scheduled start Thursday versus the Rockies … Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg struck out 10 batters over six innings Tuesday in a defeat of the Braves … The Cardinals signed right-hander Jake Westbrook to a one-year, $8.75 million contract extension with a $9.5 million mutual option for 2014 … Jhoulys Chacin tossed six innings of one-run ball in his return from the disabled list Tuesday against the Mets … The Cubs have shut down right-hander Matt Garza (elbow) for the remainder of the 2012 season … John Axford tallied his 19th save of the season Tuesday in the Brewers’ victory over the Cubs … Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner threw two scoreless innings Tuesday in his first rehab start with Triple-A Tucson … Carlos Beltran is day-to-day with a sore hand … Alfonso Soriano tallied his 76th RBI of the year in Tuesday’s loss to the Brewers … Jimmy Rollins had a double, two steals and two RBI in Tuesday’s loss to the Reds … Ted Lilly (shoulder) is aiming to return to the Dodgers as a reliever on September 1 … The Diamondbacks have placed left-hander Joe Saunders on waivers … Emilio Bonifacio is day-to-day with right knee discomfort … The Brewers may shut down Mike Fiers and Mark Rogers within the next three weeks … Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco has begun serving his two-game suspension for bumping umpire Chad Fairchild in late July.

American League Quick Hits: White Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis launched a grand slam in Tuesday’s defeat of the Yankees and now has 11 homers and 33 RBI in 46 games since changing teams … Brett Lawrie experienced renewed discomfort in his ribcage on Monday and has been shut down indefinitely … Felix Hernandez fired 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball Tuesday against the Indians in his encore from last week’s perfect game … Royals right-hander Luke Hochevar tossed eight scoreless innings, fanning 10, in an extra-innings win over the Rays on Tuesday night … Brandon Morrow (oblique) is on track to return from the disabled list Saturday for a start against the Orioles … Angels closer Ernesto Frieri collected his 15th save of the season in the Angels’ victory over the Red Sox on Tuesday … Doug Fister is questionable for his next start because of a right groin injury … Grady Sizemore has been shut down for the season due to back and knee injuries … David Price tossed eight shutout innings Tuesday in a no-decision against the Royals … Austin Jackson finished 3-for-5 with a double and a run scored in Tuesday’s victory over the Blue Jays … The A’s demoted struggling second baseman Jemile Weeks to Triple-A Sacramento … Mark Trumbo launched his 30th homer of the year and tallied his 77th RBI in Tuesday’s win over the Red Sox … Carl Pavano (shoulder) has been shut down for the rest of 2012 … Max Scherzer held the Blue Jays to one run in seven innings Tuesday in a Tigers victory … Edwin Encarnacion hit his 32nd home run on Tuesday night … Indians right-hander Josh Tomlin will undergo Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery on Wednesday … Veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte has not ruled out returning for another season … The White Sox placed center fielder Alejandro De Aza on the 15-day disabled list with bruised ribs.