Stay the Course It's happening already. Your league is losing managers to fantasy football preparation. This, even before your trade deadline is up. This, even with a month left in the season.
Pffffft I say. We know what the best fantasy sport is. The one with the biggest sample size, the most games, the biggest lineups… that's the sport that best determines your ability. Not the one with 16 games in which you're an ACL tear away from doom. Not the one with ten players in your average lineup. The one with 162 games, at least 25 players in your lineup, and a sport that's made for stats. That's the one.
This is not to disparage you fantasy football players that are still on board here. Despite wanting to quit fantasy football for good, I got roped into the RotoWorld Baseball Writers league -- where, like a blind squirrel looking for nuts I took Calvin Johnson sixth overall and followed with Jimmy Graham, Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw in our PPR. I get that it's fun, it's once a week, and it's an easy breezy game.
But I'm a hardcore fantasy guy, and I want results every night. Fantasy Baseball is my sport. I'll name the tiers after the different fantasy sports, then. It's time to pit them against each other.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Fantasy Baseball" Tier.)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Was there any doubt? Baseball is a statistician's wet dream. There's a one-on-one matchup at the heart of it, it moves from static state to static state, and it's been gathering numbers from day one. Just look at all the readily available research out there, and you'll get it. Baseball and numbers were born hand in hand, and fantasy baseball is their natural love child.
There's also no doubt about the top two here. These guys are suddenly in the Cy Young chase, as R.A. Dickey slows and Johnny Cueto doesn't quite have the strikeout numbers to hang. If there isn't an obvious starter for the award, it could be Aroldis Chapman earning the hardware for best pitcher in the National League this year. After all, he now has 30 saves… and 29 hits allowed. That's amazing. He also has 112 strikeouts, which is more than Wandy Rodriguez has, and Wandy has pitched more than twice as many innings. Jonathan Papelbon has 50 fewer strikeouts and is in the same tier. Wait, maybe that's not right.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Fantasy Football" Tier.)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Basketball is my second love as a sport, but since we're talking second love here anyway, I'm going to go with the easy mistress that is fantasy football. She won't make me work too hard -- only one game a week -- and if it doesn't work out, there's always lousy luck to blame.
Jonathan Papelbon doesn't really have himself to blame here. He's still got excellent control and above-average strikeout goodness. It's just that he's not one of the 15+ K/9 guys, and he's not on a team that will hand him save opportunities by the bushel. Offense and bullpen strength are the best predictors of save opportunities, and the Phillies have none of the former and some of the latter. Papelbon's a tweener right now because of the state of his team.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Fantasy Basketball" Tier.)
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Basketball might be an easy third for others, but the choice here was difficult. I usually play four or five leagues -- easily second to my 15 baseball leagues -- and I'll win a couple of them, so it's not about being bad at it. I just find basketball… sort of in between. It has the nightly work of baseball, but the sport isn't quite made for the fantasy game. The link between the numbers in my box scores and the outcomes in real life seems more tenuous. And then, in the final weeks when everything is on the line -- most basketball leagues are head-to-head -- I'm suddenly required to watch the starting lineups up until game time to find out if that player is going to play. And don't get me started on the tanking.
Tom Wilhelmsen is fine. Yes, a couple other pitchers have gotten saves recently -- Lucas Luetge being the latest -- but his wife was having a baby. He gets a pass. HIs team might not hand him a ton of save opps, but they do have a great bullpen, so if they are ahead, they'll keep the lead. Now they just need to score some runs.
A note about Ernesto Frieri: Scott Downs returned and pitched in the seventh and the beginning of the eighth, meaning that Kevin Jepsen may have leapt ahead of him on the depth chart while he was out. Frieri is still the high-walk, high-strikeout closer in Anaheim. This concludes your note about Ernesto Frieri.
Greg Holland's walk rate looked terrible to begin the year, but he's really reigned it in. In the second half of the season, he's averaged a walk every four innings -- that rate was two walks every three innings in the first half. In his last ten outings, Holland has two walks… against 11 strikeouts. Now the only question is what the team will do with Joakim Soria's affordable option, with the veteran coming off his second Tommy John surgery. It's worth mentioning that Holland will still come at one-tenth the cost of Soria, so he's probably the closer next year, too.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Fantasy Hockey" Tier.)
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Say what you want about hockey, but it's still a sport. With athletes in it. Yeah, there's only a couple goals per your average game, and there are some interesting stats (penalty minutes are a positive?), but it's still a game that's played to a score. Fantasy racing? Huh? Fantasy golf? So I pick a guy per tier, but can only pick him twice but maybe three times if this happens? What?
Jim Johnson is on a strikeout binge! He has six in his last ten outings! That means he's only cost you five strikeouts in the past month! He's a one-category guy at this point, and the rankings need to reflect that.
Jose Valverde deserves a little love. After his one-strikoeut, one-hit, clean slate save Tuesday night, his last ten appearances look pretty solid. No blown saves, one walk, and nine strikeouts in ten innings. He still doesn't have an average strikeout rate, walk rate, or ground-ball rate, but he does have a lot of leash. And his velocity has been more up than down recently.
Carlos Marmol is the 'doing it dirty' closer of the tier, but he's been a little better recently. Even after his one-walk, no-strikeout performance Tuesday not (not a save opportunity), he has 11 strikeouts against four walks in his last ten innings. That'll do, especially in that bullpen, and on that team.
Grant Balfour is doing it clean. He's actually been really good all year and has none of the control issues that Ryan Cook has. He now has five saves in a row, and Sean Doolittle pitched the eighth Tuesday night. He's looking like he'll be the closer for the rest of the year, and, most improbably… the playoffs?
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page. <!--RW-->
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Fantasy Fishing" Tier.)
Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Sergio Romo (first chair), Javier Lopez (second chair), Jeremy Affeldt (third chair), San Francisco Giants
John Axford (first chair), Jim Henderson (second chair), Milwaukee Brewers
Dale Thayer (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres
Glen Perkins (first chair), Jared Burton (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Frank Francisco (first chair), Jon Rauch (second chair), Bobby Parnell (third chair), New York Mets
There was a second where I thought maybe Fantasy College Football should go here -- talk about a ridiculous player universe -- but instead I'll take the low-hanging fruit. Fishing is okay, I've enjoyed it. You get a six pack of a nice beverage, a good friend or family member, and you kill a day in the sun just chilling. Watch it on television? Maybe if it's the dudes catching fish with their hands. Watch it on television and somehow figure out a strategy to determine who the best fisher is before other people do? Or a strategy to figure out what the best fishing/fisher matchups are? I don't get that.
I do get what's going on in San Francisco, or at least hope I get it. It seems like a straight platoon, with righty Sergio Romo and lefty Javier Lopez splitting save opportunities depending on the situation. It actually suits their respective arsenals perfectly. As much as it's tempting to give Romo the lion's share of the saves, since there are more righties than lefties in baseball, the last two games in Los Angeles prove one thing: there's always a lefty in the lineup somewhere, and if he comes up at the right time, the save will go to the LOOGY. So, it's a crapshoot really.
Who has any idea what's going on in Milwaukee. You can't use the fact that the team is looking to the future to decide between John Axford and Jim Henderson -- both are under team control for a while. You can't really use career stats to decide -- both have underwhelming minor league histories full of spotty control. Who got the last save? That works best in times like this, and it was John Axford that came out and shut the door after Manny Parra allowed some base runners and Jim Henderson allowed a couple of them to score. So it's John Axford? Seems like it.
Dale Thayer was doing fine as the interim closer in San Diego, and Luke Gregerson still has that Romo-esque problem with all the sliders, the platoon split, and the iffy control. But Tuesday night, Thayer gave up a long home run to center to Garret Jones, while Gregerson struck out one in his clean inning in the eighth. Doesn't matter, his sliders weren't all biting just right despite the box score, and Thayer is probably still the guy until Huston Street's calf gets right.
Frank Francisco and Glen Perkins might be the respective closers of the Mets and Twins, but you'd barely know it. Those teams have nine combined saves in August, but the player-high for either team is two. Two saves this month. They're ownable, but not bank-able.
Injured
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Huston Street (calf), San Diego Padres
Matt Capps is still not close to resuming throwing. It's mid-August. He won't factor in this year. Huston Street says his calf feels much better and he's riding a bike. He'll be back in early September.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Brian Fuentes, St. Louis Cardinals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics.
Ryan Cook replaces Grant Balfour on this list, but Ryan Cook will probably factor into saves in Oakland next season, so he's a name to remember.
The Steals Department
It might be time to stream for steals. With fewer than six weeks left in the season, you might be able to work the matchups to find those extra stolen bases you need. I don't recommend going after specific batteries on a day-by-day basis: that's too much work, and besides, lineups change. If you picked up a speedster because he was going to face a certain catcher and then that catcher got a foul ball off the thumb that night, your fortunes might change some. If you instead think of the world in series, and think of teams as a whole, you can glean some useful knowledge and stream for steals -- without your leaguemates noticing even.
There's even a way to think of the rest of the season as a monolith. September is for divisional matchups, as the schedule is weighted in a way as to create exciting divisional races down the stretch. The NL West will face the NL West, and that's a good thing, given how close that division is. Let's say you were thinking of picking up Everth Cabrera or Alexi Amarista for their steals right now -- that might not be a great idea. San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Colorado are all above average, and Arizona is the best at preventing the stolen base in the major leagues. Then the Padres have three games against St. Louis (second in caught stealing percentage) and Atlanta (tenth). Looks like those Padres aren't your best pickups.
Move to the bottom of the list, and you'll find some of the National League Central hanging out: Pittsburgh is last in the league, having given up 100 stolen bases against ten caught stealing, Houston and Chicago are bad, and MIlwaukee is below-average. You'll just have to avoid St. Louis, but if you're considering picking up Jon Jay, that's not a problem.
If you're willing to go in three-game chunks, it gets easier. Try to find guys that are facing Minnesota, Washington, or Pittsburgh, and you're giving your speedster a good chance. Anaheim, San Diego, Houston and Cleveland join Pittsburgh in having allowed 100+ stolen bases this year, so they look vulnerable too. No matter what, the schedule and this leaderboard is worth a look before you make your next pickup as you hunt for steals.
Pffffft I say. We know what the best fantasy sport is. The one with the biggest sample size, the most games, the biggest lineups… that's the sport that best determines your ability. Not the one with 16 games in which you're an ACL tear away from doom. Not the one with ten players in your average lineup. The one with 162 games, at least 25 players in your lineup, and a sport that's made for stats. That's the one.
This is not to disparage you fantasy football players that are still on board here. Despite wanting to quit fantasy football for good, I got roped into the RotoWorld Baseball Writers league -- where, like a blind squirrel looking for nuts I took Calvin Johnson sixth overall and followed with Jimmy Graham, Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw in our PPR. I get that it's fun, it's once a week, and it's an easy breezy game.
But I'm a hardcore fantasy guy, and I want results every night. Fantasy Baseball is my sport. I'll name the tiers after the different fantasy sports, then. It's time to pit them against each other.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Fantasy Baseball" Tier.)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Was there any doubt? Baseball is a statistician's wet dream. There's a one-on-one matchup at the heart of it, it moves from static state to static state, and it's been gathering numbers from day one. Just look at all the readily available research out there, and you'll get it. Baseball and numbers were born hand in hand, and fantasy baseball is their natural love child.
There's also no doubt about the top two here. These guys are suddenly in the Cy Young chase, as R.A. Dickey slows and Johnny Cueto doesn't quite have the strikeout numbers to hang. If there isn't an obvious starter for the award, it could be Aroldis Chapman earning the hardware for best pitcher in the National League this year. After all, he now has 30 saves… and 29 hits allowed. That's amazing. He also has 112 strikeouts, which is more than Wandy Rodriguez has, and Wandy has pitched more than twice as many innings. Jonathan Papelbon has 50 fewer strikeouts and is in the same tier. Wait, maybe that's not right.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Fantasy Football" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Basketball is my second love as a sport, but since we're talking second love here anyway, I'm going to go with the easy mistress that is fantasy football. She won't make me work too hard -- only one game a week -- and if it doesn't work out, there's always lousy luck to blame.
Jonathan Papelbon doesn't really have himself to blame here. He's still got excellent control and above-average strikeout goodness. It's just that he's not one of the 15+ K/9 guys, and he's not on a team that will hand him save opportunities by the bushel. Offense and bullpen strength are the best predictors of save opportunities, and the Phillies have none of the former and some of the latter. Papelbon's a tweener right now because of the state of his team.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Fantasy Basketball" Tier.)
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Basketball might be an easy third for others, but the choice here was difficult. I usually play four or five leagues -- easily second to my 15 baseball leagues -- and I'll win a couple of them, so it's not about being bad at it. I just find basketball… sort of in between. It has the nightly work of baseball, but the sport isn't quite made for the fantasy game. The link between the numbers in my box scores and the outcomes in real life seems more tenuous. And then, in the final weeks when everything is on the line -- most basketball leagues are head-to-head -- I'm suddenly required to watch the starting lineups up until game time to find out if that player is going to play. And don't get me started on the tanking.
Tom Wilhelmsen is fine. Yes, a couple other pitchers have gotten saves recently -- Lucas Luetge being the latest -- but his wife was having a baby. He gets a pass. HIs team might not hand him a ton of save opps, but they do have a great bullpen, so if they are ahead, they'll keep the lead. Now they just need to score some runs.
A note about Ernesto Frieri: Scott Downs returned and pitched in the seventh and the beginning of the eighth, meaning that Kevin Jepsen may have leapt ahead of him on the depth chart while he was out. Frieri is still the high-walk, high-strikeout closer in Anaheim. This concludes your note about Ernesto Frieri.
Greg Holland's walk rate looked terrible to begin the year, but he's really reigned it in. In the second half of the season, he's averaged a walk every four innings -- that rate was two walks every three innings in the first half. In his last ten outings, Holland has two walks… against 11 strikeouts. Now the only question is what the team will do with Joakim Soria's affordable option, with the veteran coming off his second Tommy John surgery. It's worth mentioning that Holland will still come at one-tenth the cost of Soria, so he's probably the closer next year, too.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Fantasy Hockey" Tier.)
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Say what you want about hockey, but it's still a sport. With athletes in it. Yeah, there's only a couple goals per your average game, and there are some interesting stats (penalty minutes are a positive?), but it's still a game that's played to a score. Fantasy racing? Huh? Fantasy golf? So I pick a guy per tier, but can only pick him twice but maybe three times if this happens? What?
Jim Johnson is on a strikeout binge! He has six in his last ten outings! That means he's only cost you five strikeouts in the past month! He's a one-category guy at this point, and the rankings need to reflect that.
Jose Valverde deserves a little love. After his one-strikoeut, one-hit, clean slate save Tuesday night, his last ten appearances look pretty solid. No blown saves, one walk, and nine strikeouts in ten innings. He still doesn't have an average strikeout rate, walk rate, or ground-ball rate, but he does have a lot of leash. And his velocity has been more up than down recently.
Carlos Marmol is the 'doing it dirty' closer of the tier, but he's been a little better recently. Even after his one-walk, no-strikeout performance Tuesday not (not a save opportunity), he has 11 strikeouts against four walks in his last ten innings. That'll do, especially in that bullpen, and on that team.
Grant Balfour is doing it clean. He's actually been really good all year and has none of the control issues that Ryan Cook has. He now has five saves in a row, and Sean Doolittle pitched the eighth Tuesday night. He's looking like he'll be the closer for the rest of the year, and, most improbably… the playoffs?
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page. <!--RW-->
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Fantasy Fishing" Tier.)
Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Sergio Romo (first chair), Javier Lopez (second chair), Jeremy Affeldt (third chair), San Francisco Giants
Dale Thayer (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres
Glen Perkins (first chair), Jared Burton (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Frank Francisco (first chair), Jon Rauch (second chair), Bobby Parnell (third chair), New York Mets
There was a second where I thought maybe Fantasy College Football should go here -- talk about a ridiculous player universe -- but instead I'll take the low-hanging fruit. Fishing is okay, I've enjoyed it. You get a six pack of a nice beverage, a good friend or family member, and you kill a day in the sun just chilling. Watch it on television? Maybe if it's the dudes catching fish with their hands. Watch it on television and somehow figure out a strategy to determine who the best fisher is before other people do? Or a strategy to figure out what the best fishing/fisher matchups are? I don't get that.
I do get what's going on in San Francisco, or at least hope I get it. It seems like a straight platoon, with righty Sergio Romo and lefty Javier Lopez splitting save opportunities depending on the situation. It actually suits their respective arsenals perfectly. As much as it's tempting to give Romo the lion's share of the saves, since there are more righties than lefties in baseball, the last two games in Los Angeles prove one thing: there's always a lefty in the lineup somewhere, and if he comes up at the right time, the save will go to the LOOGY. So, it's a crapshoot really.
Who has any idea what's going on in Milwaukee. You can't use the fact that the team is looking to the future to decide between John Axford and Jim Henderson -- both are under team control for a while. You can't really use career stats to decide -- both have underwhelming minor league histories full of spotty control. Who got the last save? That works best in times like this, and it was John Axford that came out and shut the door after Manny Parra allowed some base runners and Jim Henderson allowed a couple of them to score. So it's John Axford? Seems like it.
Dale Thayer was doing fine as the interim closer in San Diego, and Luke Gregerson still has that Romo-esque problem with all the sliders, the platoon split, and the iffy control. But Tuesday night, Thayer gave up a long home run to center to Garret Jones, while Gregerson struck out one in his clean inning in the eighth. Doesn't matter, his sliders weren't all biting just right despite the box score, and Thayer is probably still the guy until Huston Street's calf gets right.
Frank Francisco and Glen Perkins might be the respective closers of the Mets and Twins, but you'd barely know it. Those teams have nine combined saves in August, but the player-high for either team is two. Two saves this month. They're ownable, but not bank-able.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Injured
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Huston Street (calf), San Diego Padres
Matt Capps is still not close to resuming throwing. It's mid-August. He won't factor in this year. Huston Street says his calf feels much better and he's riding a bike. He'll be back in early September.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Brian Fuentes, St. Louis Cardinals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics.
Ryan Cook replaces Grant Balfour on this list, but Ryan Cook will probably factor into saves in Oakland next season, so he's a name to remember.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Steals Department
It might be time to stream for steals. With fewer than six weeks left in the season, you might be able to work the matchups to find those extra stolen bases you need. I don't recommend going after specific batteries on a day-by-day basis: that's too much work, and besides, lineups change. If you picked up a speedster because he was going to face a certain catcher and then that catcher got a foul ball off the thumb that night, your fortunes might change some. If you instead think of the world in series, and think of teams as a whole, you can glean some useful knowledge and stream for steals -- without your leaguemates noticing even.
There's even a way to think of the rest of the season as a monolith. September is for divisional matchups, as the schedule is weighted in a way as to create exciting divisional races down the stretch. The NL West will face the NL West, and that's a good thing, given how close that division is. Let's say you were thinking of picking up Everth Cabrera or Alexi Amarista for their steals right now -- that might not be a great idea. San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Colorado are all above average, and Arizona is the best at preventing the stolen base in the major leagues. Then the Padres have three games against St. Louis (second in caught stealing percentage) and Atlanta (tenth). Looks like those Padres aren't your best pickups.
Move to the bottom of the list, and you'll find some of the National League Central hanging out: Pittsburgh is last in the league, having given up 100 stolen bases against ten caught stealing, Houston and Chicago are bad, and MIlwaukee is below-average. You'll just have to avoid St. Louis, but if you're considering picking up Jon Jay, that's not a problem.
If you're willing to go in three-game chunks, it gets easier. Try to find guys that are facing Minnesota, Washington, or Pittsburgh, and you're giving your speedster a good chance. Anaheim, San Diego, Houston and Cleveland join Pittsburgh in having allowed 100+ stolen bases this year, so they look vulnerable too. No matter what, the schedule and this leaderboard is worth a look before you make your next pickup as you hunt for steals.