MLB Fantasy News 2012

[HacheMan]

Bold predictions for hitters

Eric Karabell

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It's hardly being bold to predict Los Angeles Angels rookie outfielder Mike Trout is going to end up as fantasy's top player this season. Trout currently sits atop the ESPN Player Rater, edging out Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun. Being bold would be to predict Alberto Callaspo, Clint Barmes or Nyjer Morgan is bound for fantasy glory, and I just can't do that.



Still, as we head to the final third of baseball's regular season, it seems a wise time to get a little bold with a handful of predictions, and I'll try to make them neither as obvious as picking continued greatness for someone like Trout nor as silly as choosing an irrelevant fantasy option to suddenly shake the foundation of the sport. Well, unless I kind of believe it. Thursday we'll go bold with the hitters; Friday it will be the pitchers.

<offer>• Trout will be joined in the final top 20 (among hitters) by teammates Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols. Trumbo is already there, and while everyone expects major batting average regression, I don't see it happening. He's hitting .288 in July. He doesn't walk a lot, but he makes enough contact to hit well, and he'll also approach 40 home runs. Pujols, meanwhile, has been terrific the past two months, as expected after his slow start, and will continue to prove it to those that doubted him when he ends up a top-3 overall first baseman (he's currently sixth). No other Angels hitter ends up cracking the top 100 for batters, including Torii Hunter, who is currently 99th. Oh, and the Angels win the AL West, though since they have a better record than Texas since April, that's hardly bold.</offer>


• Baseball's eventual winner in stolen bases will be Emilio Bonifacio. The Miami Marlins speedster will do this despite having already missed seven weeks because of a thumb injury. Yeah, he's bona fide. And yeah, stolen bases are down this season, making this achievement possible. With nine steals in April, 11 in May and six in July, this is a fellow that could have flirted with 60 if healthy. I say he ends up at 50, and with second base eligibility in 2013, that's enough for him to crack our top 50 next spring.


• Marlins teammate Justin Ruggiano finishes with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Hey, I like the guy. He toiled in the minors for years and failed in brief chances with the Tampa Bay Rays, but he's looking legit for Miami, offensively and in center field. He hit for power and ran in the minors, and there's something to be said for performing when your career is on the line. He won't hit .300, but the counting numbers will be there.


• The Washington Nationals' Danny Espinosa ends up a top-10 middle infielder. He's 18th entering Thursday, but since moving over to shortstop in the absence of Ian Desmond, Espinosa has turned his disappointing season around. He's hitting .452 as a shortstop (in only 31 at-bats), .235 as a second baseman. This is a future fantasy monster whose main issue in 2011 was simply batting average. Get this: The Nationals will end up with two of the top five fantasy shortstops for the season. Who would have guessed that?


• Adam Dunn will lead the league with 45 home runs, but he'll also bat .198 and shatter the record for strikeouts. Hmm, will fantasy owners care about the average and strikeouts? I won't. Dunn will also lead the majors in walks, which is part of the reason his low batting average doesn't impact owners as much. Enjoy the 115 RBIs as well.


• Of course, Dunn will fall short of being Chicago's top hitter, according to the Player Rater, when 2012 ends. It won't be Paul Konerko either. Alex Rios is the current leader, but he'll be passed by outfielder Alejandro De Aza. Yep! The leadoff hitter will keep on running, and since stolen bases are tougher to come by than home runs, it will propel him to more value.

• Colorado Rockies rookie Wilin Rosario will lead all catchers in home runs this season. He already has hit 16, and entering Thursday the only backstop with more is Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the Boston Red Sox. Salty has been struggling of late, but Rosario continues to improve and will easily push Ramon Hernandez aside even if the latter isn't traded. By the way, Rosario's numbers are actually better away from Coors Field. He'll outlast Salty, Brian McCann and Mike Napoli and hit 26 home runs.


• Speaking of young players, future Kansas City Royals outfielder but current Triple-A Omaha slugger Wil Myers will continue to toil in the minors longer than he should. Good luck to the Royals in trading Jeff Francoeur to open up space, too. Not saying I agree with their philosophy one bit, but I'll take the under on Myers getting more than 100 big league at-bats.


• Chase Utley will finish as a top-15 second baseman. While he's currently 46th at the position on the Rater, it's not as difficult as one might think to move up, and he's doing so quickly. In the past five games, Utley has two home runs, six RBIs, three stolen bases, and he isn't getting many days off. He won't need them when he finishes with 13 home runs and 14 steals, similar to what he did the prior two injury-shortened campaigns.


• Ryan Roberts joins Utley in that top 15. Yep, the new Rays third baseman has second base eligibility and will move over there when Evan Longoria comes off the DL in late August. Roberts hit 19 home runs and stole 18 bases last season, and those skills certainly remain. Forget about the first few months of underachievement in Arizona; I say he finishes with 13 homers and 14 steals.


[+] Enlarge

<cite>Christian Petersen/Getty Images</cite>Justin Upton has hit .297 since the start of June.



• As for those Diamondbacks, complain about outfielder Justin Upton all you want, but he's going to end the season with 16 home runs, 75 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. Sure, you didn't get a full return on your draft-day investment, but this could have been a whole lot worse. And for what it's worth, I'll be recommending Upton in 2013 drafts.


• The Red Sox miss the playoffs (that's not bold), but Adrian Gonzalez will continue his second-half surge and end up a top-10 first baseman and top-25 outfielder. Gonzalez had a disappointing first half, with six home runs in 339 at-bats. He already has hit three home runs (with a .349 average) in 43 at-bats since the All-Star break. That production will continue. And I'm similarly eager to trade for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia at current discount prices. As for Carl Crawford, and I've never wavered on this, you can have him. You loved him after three games and since then, nothing. Crawford plays only 25 more games and hits .230.


• Just one player will post a 30-homer/30-steal season. Congrats again to Ryan Braun! For now he's my top player in 2013 drafts, and McCutchen, Matt Kemp and Carlos Gonzalez are in the top five, though I have to admit every day I see Trout play, I wonder if he's the best. Trout will hit 24 home runs, knock in 75 and steal 44 bases with a .336 batting average as a rookie. That's simply incredible.

 

[HacheMan]

Forecaster: July 30-August 5

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

On tap: We continue to hold our collective breath, as there is sure to be a lot of player movement over the weekend and into early next week, with the trade deadline set for Tuesday. We've already seen Wandy Rodriguez get dealt to the Pittsburgh Pirates, a move that sent Kevin Correia to the bullpen, and Anibal Sanchez now wears a Detroit Tigers hat. Both pitchers are expected to make their debuts with their new clubs this weekend and are scheduled to pitch again Friday, Aug. 3.

Whether or not Ryan Dempster continues to pitch for the Chicago Cubs is up in the air, though at the moment he is slated to pitch again Monday. His second start of the week might well be for another team.


Zack Greinke was traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Los Angeles Angels on Friday, and will make his Angels' debut on Sunday. He is now included in the rotation charts and Top 75 rankings..


This week we'll see if the Baltimore Orioles continue to be contenders, or if they're merely pretenders. They get two three-game sets on the road, where the team is actually 28-23 on the year despite being outscored by 26 runs. A trip to visit both the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays could send them right out of the playoff hunt should they falter completely, and so far in 2012, they have losing records against both of these divisional foes.



ESPN leagues: Week 16




For those of you in weekly-transaction leagues, there is plenty of time to get your Week 16 lineups in, as there are currently no day games scheduled for Monday (or on Tuesday, for that matter). For the rest of the week, it's all early starts, including on Friday, when there's a doubleheader between Miami and Washington in the nation's capital that kicks off at 4:05 p.m. ET. Here are this week's other scheduled first pitches by day:



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Date</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Time (ET)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Teams</th><th style="width: 1px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Date</th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center>Time (ET)</center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;">Teams</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Mon 7/30</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7:00 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">LAA, TEX</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Fri 8/3</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">4:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">MIA, WAS</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Tue 7/31</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">7:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">BAL, NYY, PHI, WAS</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Sat 7/28</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">NYY, SEA</td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Wed 8/1</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">BAL, NYY</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Sun 8/5</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">1:05 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CLE, DET, NYY, SEA </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;">Thu 8/2</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">12:35 p.m.</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;">CIN, SD</td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> </td></tr></tbody></table>


Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
Probable starting pitchers | Week 16 pitcher rankings | Pitching notes
Streamer's delight | Hitting ratings | Hitting notes



Projected starting pitchers




The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Team </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Mon
7/30 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Tue
7/31 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Wed
8/1 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Thu
8/2 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Fri
8/3 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sat
8/4 </center></th><th style="width: 14%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sun
8/5 </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @NYY
Gonzalez
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
Tillman
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
Britton
(LHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
Hunter
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
Chen
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TB
Gonzalez
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> DET
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> DET
Beckett
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
Cook
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
Lester
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
Doubront
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIN
Buchholz
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIN
Beckett
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @MIN
Quintana
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
Peavy
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
Sale
(LHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
Humber
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
Floyd
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> LAA
Quintana
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @KC
Lowe
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
McAllister
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
Tomlin
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
Masterson
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
Jimenez
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @DET
Lowe
(RHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @BOS
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
Verlander
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
Porcello
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
Sanchez
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
Fister
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CLE
Scherzer
(RHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CLE
Hochevar
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
Mendoza
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
Guthrie
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
Chen
(LHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
Smith
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TEX
Hochevar
(RHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TEX
Weaver
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @TEX
Santana
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
Haren
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
Wilson
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
Greinke
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CHW
Weaver
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CHW
Santana
(RHP)
P: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CHW
De Vries
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CHW
Blackburn
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
Diamond
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
Deduno
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
Liriano
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @BOS
De Vries
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @BOS
Blackburn
(RHP)
P: 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> BAL
Garcia
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Nova
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Hughes
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
Sabathia
(LHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
Kuroda
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SEA
Garcia
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TB
Griffin
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TB
Milone
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TB
Parker
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
Colon
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
Blackley
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TOR
Griffin
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TOR
Milone
(LHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> TOR
Iwakuma
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
Vargas
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
Beavan
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
Millwood
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
Hernandez
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @NYY
Iwakuma
(RHP)
P: 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @OAK
Price
(LHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
Shields
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
Cobb
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Moore
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
Hellickson
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> BAL
Price
(LHP)
P: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> LAA
Feldman
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> LAA
Holland
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
Darvish
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
Harrison
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
Oswalt
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @KC
Feldman
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @KC
Holland
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SEA
Romero
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SEA
Laffey
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SEA
Villnueva
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
Alvarez
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
Cecil
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
Happ
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @OAK
Laffey
(LHP)
P: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @LAD
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
Miley
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
Collmnter
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
Kennedy
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
Saunders
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @PHI
Cahill
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIA
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIA
Jurrjens
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
Sheets
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
Minor
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
Hudson
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> HOU
Hanson
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> HOU
Jurrjens
(RHP)
P: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
Dempster
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
TBD

P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
Wood
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
Samardzija
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
Maholm
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
TBD

P: 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SD
Leake
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SD
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
Arroyo
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
Cueto
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
Latos
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> PIT
Leake
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> PIT
Bailey
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> STL
Francis
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> STL
Pomeranz
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
Friedrich
(LHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SF
Sanchez
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SF
Francis
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> SF
Pomeranz
(LHP)
P: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @MIL
Norris
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @MIL
Keuchel
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
Lyles
(RHP)
P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
Harrell
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @ATL
Norris
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @ATL
Keuchel
(LHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> ARI
Harang
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Capuano
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Fife
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
Billingsley
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
Kershaw
(LHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> CHC
Harang
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @ATL
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @ATL
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
Zambrano
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
Eovaldi
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @WAS-2
Johnson
(RHP)
P: 8
TBD

P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @WAS
Buehrle
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @WAS
Nolasco
(RHP)
P: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> HOU
Estrada
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
Gallardo
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
Fiers
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @STL
Wolf
(LHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @STL
TBD

P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @STL
Estrada
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SF
Hefner
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SF
Harvey
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
Niese
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
Young
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
Dickey
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SD
Hefner
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @SD
Harvey
(RHP)
P: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @WAS
Lee
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
Worley
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
Hamels
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Blanton
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
Halladay
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> ARI
Lee
(LHP)
P: 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CHC
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
Burnett
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
Karstens
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
W.Rdrguez
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
McDonald
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CIN
Bedard
(LHP)
P: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @COL
Lohse
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
Westbrook
(RHP)
P: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
Lynn
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
Kelly
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
Wainwright
(RHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIL
Lohse
(RHP)
P: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CIN
Volquez
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @CIN
Marquis
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
Wells
(RHP)
P: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
Ohlendorf
(RHP)
P: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
Richard
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYM
Volquez
(RHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYM
Marquis
(RHP)
P: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYM
Bumgarner
(LHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> NYM
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
Cain
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
Zito
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
Vogelsong
(RHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @COL
Bumgarner
(LHP)
P: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> @COL
Lincecum
(RHP)
P: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> PHI
Strasburg
(RHP)
P: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
Jackson
(RHP)
P: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
Detwiler
(LHP)
P: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIA-2
Zimmrmnn
(RHP)
P: 10
TBD

P: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
Gonzalez
(LHP)
P: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> MIA
Strasburg
(RHP)
P: 10 </td></tr></tbody></table>P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.


AJ's Week 16 pitcher rankings: Top 75


1. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) -- Tue-PHI (Lee), Sun-MIA (Nolasco)
2. David Price (TB) -- Mon-@OAK (Griffin), Sun-BAL (Gonzalez)
3. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Tue-@WAS (Strasburg), Sun-ARI (Cahill)
4. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Mon-@TEX (Feldman), Sat-@CHW (Floyd)
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Sat-CHC (Maholm)
6. Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) -- Fri-MIA, Gm. 1 (Johnson)
7. Felix Hernandez (SEA) -- Sat-@NYY (Kuroda)
8. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Mon-NYM (Hefner), Sat-@COL (Francis)
9. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Sat-MIL (TBD)
10. Roy Halladay (PHI) -- Sat-ARI (Saunders)
11. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Thu-@TEX (Harrison)
12. Gio Gonzalez (WAS) -- Sat-MIA (Buehrle)
13. Josh Johnson (MIA) -- Fri-@WAS, Gm. 1 (Zimmermann)
14. A.J. Griffin (OAK) -- Mon-TB (Price), Sat-TOR (Happ)
15. Drew Pomeranz (COL) -- Wed-STL (Westbrook), Sun-SF (Lincecum)
16. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Fri-PIT (Rodriguez)
17. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) -- Fri-@COL (Sanchez)
18. R.A. Dickey (NYM) -- Fri-@SD (Richard)
19. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) -- Sat-SEA (Hernandez)
20. Trevor Cahill (ARI) -- Mon-@LAD (Harang), Sun-@PHI (Lee)
21. Tommy Hanson (ATL) -- Mon-MIA (Buehrle), Sat-HOU (Norris)
22. Clay Buchholz (BOS) -- Mon-DET (Scherzer), Sat-MIN (De Vries)
23. Doug Fister (DET) -- Sat-CLE (Jimenez)
24. Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Tue-SD (Marquis), Sun-PIT (Bedard)
25. Chris Sale (CHW) -- Wed-@MIN (Diamond)
26. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Tue-@BOS (Beckett)
27. Marco Estrada (MIL) -- Mon-HOU (Norris), Sun-@STL (Lohse)
28. Tommy Milone (OAK) -- Tue-TB (Shields), Sun-TOR (Laffey)
29. Michael Fiers (MIL) -- Wed-HOU (Lyles)
30. Matt Cain (SF) -- Wed-NYM (Niese)
31. Travis Blackley (OAK) -- Fri-TOR (Cecil)
32. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Sat-BAL (Chen)
33. Tim Hudson (ATL) -- Fri-HOU (Harrell)
34. Freddy Garcia (NYY) -- Mon-BAL (Gonzalez), Sun-SEA (Iwakuma)
35. Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) -- Sat-@TB (Hellickson)
36. Joe Kelly (STL) -- Fri-MIL (Wolf)
37. Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) -- Fri-@CIN (Latos)
38. Tim Lincecum (SF) -- Tue-NYM (Harvey), Sun-@COL (Pomeranz)
39. Clayton Richard (SD) -- Fri-NYM (Dickey)
40. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Fri-SEA (Millwood)
41. Mark Buehrle (MIA) -- Mon-@ATL (Hanson), Sat-@WAS (Gonzalez)
42. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Tue-HOU (Keuchel)
43. Johnny Cueto (CIN) -- Thu-SD (Ohlendorf)
44. Carlos Villanueva (TOR) -- Wed-@SEA (Beavan)
45. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Thu-@WAS (Detwiler)
46. Jarrod Parker (OAK) -- Wed-TB (Cobb)
47. Ross Detwiler (WAS) -- Thu-PHI (Hamels)
48. Chad Billingsley (LAD) -- Fri-CHC (Samardzija)
49. Jake Peavy (CHW) -- Tue-@MIN (Blackburn)
50. Ian Kennedy (ARI) -- Fri-@PHI (Blanton)
51. Matt Harrison (TEX) -- Thu-LAA (Wilson)
52. Ryan Dempster (CHC) -- Mon-PIT (Bedard)
53. Jason Vargas (SEA) -- Tue-TOR (Laffey)
54. Barry Zito (SF) -- Thu-NYM (Young)
55. Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Fri-CLE (Masterson)
56. Mike Leake (CIN) -- Mon-SD (Volquez), Sat-PIT (McDonald)
57. Ben Sheets (ATL) -- Wed-MIA (Zambrano)
58. Zack Greinke (LAA) -- Fri-@CHW (Humber)
59. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) -- Fri-@LAD (Billingsley)
60. Jeff Karstens (PIT) -- Wed-@CHC (Wood)
61. Lance Lynn (STL) -- Thu-@COL (Friedrich)
62. Josh Beckett (BOS) -- Tue-DET (Verlander), Sun-MIN (Blackburn)
63. Paul Maholm (CHC) -- Sat-@LAD (Kershaw)
64. Jose Quintana (CHW) -- Mon-@MIN (De Vries), Sun-LAA (Santana)
65. Aaron Harang (LAD) -- Mon-ARI (Cahill), Sun-CHC (TBD)
66. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Sat-@DET (Fister)
67. Zach McAllister (CLE) -- Wed-@KC (Mendoza)
68. Felix Doubront (BOS) -- Fri-MIN (Liriano)
69. Derek Holland (TEX) -- Tue-LAA (Santana), Sun-@KC (Hochevar)
70. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) -- Tue-@ATL (Jurrjens), Sun-@WAS (Strasburg)
71. Erik Bedard (PIT) -- Mon-@CHC (Dempster), Sun-@CIN (Bailey)
72. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Thu-MIA (Eovaldi)
73. Joe Blanton (PHI) -- Fri-ARI (Kennedy)
74. Kyle Lohse (STL) -- Tue-@COL (Francis), Sun-MIL (Estrada)
75. A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Tue-@CHC (TBD)


Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Matt Harvey (NYM) -- Tue-@SF (Lincecum), Sun-@SD (Marquis)
Jair Jurrjens (ATL) -- Tue-MIA (Nolasco), Sun-HOU (Keuchel)
Edinson Volquez (SD) -- Mon-@CIN (Leake), Sat-NYM (Hefner)
Aaron Laffey (TOR) -- Tue-@SEA (Vargas), Sun-@OAK (Milone)
Bud Norris (HOU) -- Mon-@MIL (Estrada), Sat-@ATL (Hanson)
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) -- Mon-@NYY (Garcia), Sun-@TB (Price)
Max Scherzer (DET) -- Mon-@BOS (Buchholz), Sun-CLE (Lowe)
Derek Lowe (CLE) -- Tue-@KC (Hochevar), Sun-@DET (Scherzer)
Jason Marquis (SD) -- Tue-@CIN (Bailey), Sun-NYM (Harvey)
Ervin Santana (LAA) -- Tue-@TEX (Holland), Sun-@CHW (Quintana)


No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Luke Hochevar (KC) -- Tue-CLE (Lowe), Sun-TEX (Holland)
Cole De Vries (MIN) -- Mon-CHW (Quintana), Sat-@BOS (Buchholz)
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) -- Mon-TOR (Romero), Sun-@NYY (Garcia)
Jeff Francis (COL) -- Tue-STL (Lohse), Sat-SF (Bumgarner)
Nick Blackburn (MIN) -- Tue-CHW (Peavy), Sun-@BOS (Beckett)



Pitching notes




• Our pick this week for the top pitching staff in Baseball Challenge is the Los Angeles Dodgers'. They play only six games, but all six are at home, where the staff has a 2.58 ERA, the third-best home ERA in all of baseball. Plus, they're playing two teams that don't score much on the road: Arizona (172 road runs, ranked 29th overall) and the Chicago Cubs (181 road runs, 25th). Throw in the outside chance that either Ryan Dempster or Matt Garza joins the staff in time to pitch a "revenge" matchup against the team that sent them packing and you have the makings of a solid fantasy week. Other recommended BBC pitching staffs: Oakland Athletics (TB-3, TOR-4), Atlanta Braves (MIA-4, HOU-3), Washington Nationals (PHI-3, MIA-4), New York Yankees (BAL-3, SEA-3).

• Kyle Lohse has a 7.20 ERA in three career starts at Coors Field, and Tim Lincecum's 4-3 record and 4.31 ERA there came when he was a much different pitcher than he is today. Both of these guys could struggle this week, especially against a Colorado Rockies team that is hitting .289 at home this season. Madison Bumgarner, on the other hand, has had some success in Denver, with a 2-2 record and 2.84 ERA in his four starts at Coors Field, including a 4-2 win there on April 12.


• Max Scherzer might be in over his head this week, even though he has gone 4-0 in his past five starts, with a 9.84 K/9 rate. In five career starts against the Red Sox, he has a 9.82 ERA, and current Red Sox hitters have a .296 batting average and .841 OPS against him. His track record versus the Indians, the second team he'll face, is only a little better: 5-4, 5.09 ERA, .272 BAA, .854 OPS.


• Most of you remember Stephen Strasburg's major league debut, when he struck out 14 Pittsburgh Pirates over seven innings, walking none. He burst on to the national scene with a 5-2 victory. Few people recall, however, that in his second start, five days later versus the Indians, he walked five and made it only 5 1/3 innings before his pitch count got the better of him. So while Matt Harvey's 11-strikeout debut for the New York Mets was exciting to see, let's not lose our minds here. Next week he has the benefit of two favorable road matchups in San Francisco (.259 at home) and San Diego (.227 at home), but keep your expectations in check.


• We know, we know, if you own Jered Weaver, you start him without hesitation. However, we'd be remiss not to point out his shaky track record in Texas, where he's slated to pitch Monday. The Rangers have eaten him alive at home, as Weaver is just 2-7 with a 5.21 career ERA there, including his lone 2012 loss, a 13-6 pasting he received courtesy of the Rangers back on May 13. A trip to Chicago at the end of the week should make you feel better, though. At U.S. Cellular, Weaver is 4-1 with a 1.91 ERA, and the current White Sox lineup is hitting just .211 against him.



Streamer's delight




Among streaming starter -- something Tristan defines as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent of ESPN leagues or fewer -- options for Week 16, here are my picks by day:
Monday, July 30: Marco Estrada versus Houston Astros
Tuesday, July 31: Matt Harvey at San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, August 1: Jeff Karstens at Chicago Cubs
Thursday, August 2: Josh Tomlin at Kansas City Royals
Friday, August 3: Travis Blackley verusus Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, August 4: Wei-Yin Chen at Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, August 5: Jair Jurrjens versus Houston Astros


Past picks
Friday, July 20: Drew Pomeranz -- 3 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Saturday, July 21: Ben Sheets -- W, QS, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Sunday, July 22: Joe Blanton -- QS, 8 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Monday, July 23: Mike Minor -- QS, 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Tuesday, July 24: Paul Maholm -- W, QS, 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
Wednesday, July 25: Homer Bailey -- QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 7 K
Thursday, July 26: Jake Westbrook -- W, QS, 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K



Week's total: 7 GS, 3 W (42.9%), 6 QS (85.7%), 46 IP, 42 H, 16 ER, 11 BB, 39 K, 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Season total: 101 GS, 41 W (40.5%), 55 QS (54.5%), 611 IP, 590 H, 263 ER, 208 BB, 466 K, 3.87 ERA, 1.31 WHIP


Hitting ratings



The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.



<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style><table style="margin: 0px; width: 100%;"><thead><tr><th style="width: 35px; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Team </center></th><th style="width: 12%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Games </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Overall
Rating </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Mon
7/30 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Tue
7/31 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Wed
8/1 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Thu
8/2 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Fri
8/3 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sat
8/4 </center></th><th style="width: 11%; vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Sun
8/5 </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
H: 5
L: 5
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TB
H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
7 home
1 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 9
L: 9
R: 9
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> DET
H: 8
L: 9
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 9
L: 10
R: 9
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 8
L: 8
R: 8
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIN
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
H: 10
L: 10
R: 10
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIN
H: 4
L: 8
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 4
L: 7
R: 2
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 2
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 7
L: 9
R: 4
S: 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 5
L: 7
R: 2
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 9
L: 10
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
H: 5
L: 2
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @DET
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 6
L: 10
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
H: 4
L: 8
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
H: 7
L: 9
R: 6
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 4
R: 8
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
H: 5
L: 3
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CLE
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
H: 8
L: 4
R: 10
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TEX
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
0 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 8
L: 5
R: 10
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 6
L: 1
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @TEX
H: 4
L: 1
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
H: 4
L: 6
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
H: 5
L: 7
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHW
H: 6
L: 9
R: 4
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
3 home
4 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
H: 5
L: 8
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
H: 3
L: 5
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHW
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 4
L: 2
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 6
L: 4
R: 8
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 4
L: 5
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @BOS
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 8
L: 8
R: 9
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 7
L: 9
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SEA
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
7 home
4 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 8
L: 6
R: 9
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TB
H: 1
L: 1
R: 3
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TB
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TB
H: 6
L: 9
R: 2
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 8
L: 1
R: 10
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 7
L: 5
R: 8
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 8
L: 5
R: 9
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 5
L: 10
R: 3
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 8
L: 5
R: 9
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> TOR
H: 3
L: 4
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
H: 3
L: 1
R: 3
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @NYY
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 4
L: 2
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 8
L: 8
R: 7
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 4
L: 7
R: 3
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> BAL
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
4 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 8
L: 7
R: 7
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 7
L: 9
R: 5
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> LAA
H: 2
L: 1
R: 2
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 9
L: 8
R: 10
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @KC
H: 8
L: 10
R: 5
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
0 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SEA
H: 6
L: 7
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SEA
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SEA
H: 8
L: 9
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 4
L: 9
R: 1
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 3
L: 2
R: 3
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 4
L: 4
R: 4
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @OAK
H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 3
L: 1
R: 5
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 5
L: 1
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
H: 7
L: 7
R: 7
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @PHI
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
7 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 8
L: 10
R: 6
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 7
L: 10
R: 2
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 5
L: 8
R: 4
S: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 8
L: 6
R: 10
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 6
L: 9
R: 2
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @LAD
H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
7 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 10
L: 8
R: 10
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 10
L: 10
R: 6
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SD
H: 9
L: 10
R: 8
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 4
L: 1
R: 5
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 6
L: 5
R: 7
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PIT
H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 6
R: 4
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 7
L: 8
R: 7
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> STL
H: 5
L: 9
R: 1
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SF
H: 3
L: 6
R: 1
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SF
H: 4
L: 1
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> SF
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
0 vs. L
6 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 1
L: 4
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
H: 3
L: 5
R: 2
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @MIL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 2
L: 3
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 6
L: 8
R: 3
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
6 home
2 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 8
L: 2
R: 10
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 2
L: 7
R: 1
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
H: 6
L: 9
R: 3
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
H: 7
L: 3
R: 7
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> CHC
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 8 total
0 home
2 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 7
R: 5
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 3
L: 7
R: 1
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 6
L: 8
R: 3
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @ATL
H: 7
L: 6
R: 8
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS-2
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 2
L: 3
R: 1
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 1
L: 6
R: 1
S: 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
1 vs. L
5 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 5
L: 7
R: 4
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 7
L: 8
R: 5
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 6
L: 8
R: 4
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> HOU
H: 10
L: 10
R: 7
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @STL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @STL
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @STL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 3
S: 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
0 home
3 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 2
L: 1
R: 4
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 3
L: 3
R: 3
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 1
L: 2
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SF
H: 5
L: 1
R: 6
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
H: 5
L: 4
R: 6
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @SD
H: 8
L: 10
R: 4
S: 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
2 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 2
R: 6
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 1
L: 6
R: 1
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 7
L: 8
R: 6
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @WAS
H: 4
L: 1
R: 6
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 4
L: 3
R: 5
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 8
L: 3
R: 9
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> ARI
H: 5
L: 4
R: 5
S: 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
0 home
1 vs. L
4 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 3
R: 6
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
H: 5
L: 5
R: 4
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CHC
H: 5
L: 1
R: 6
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 6 total
3 home
4 vs. L
1 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 8
L: 5
R: 9
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 8
L: 6
R: 10
S: 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 7
L: 5
R: 7
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIL
H: 4
L: 6
R: 2
S: 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
3 home
0 vs. L
7 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 6
L: 7
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 6
L: 8
R: 5
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 6
L: 4
R: 7
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 6
L: 9
R: 2
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @CIN
H: 3
L: 4
R: 2
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 2
L: 4
R: 1
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 6
L: 5
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
4 home
4 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 8
L: 5
R: 9
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 7
L: 6
R: 7
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 5
L: 2
R: 5
S: 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> NYM
H: 5
L: 7
R: 3
S: 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 8
L: 5
R: 8
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 8
L: 5
R: 9
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> @COL
H: 4
L: 4
R: 5
S: 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center">

</td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> 7 total
7 home
3 vs. L
3 vs. R </td><td style="vertical-align: middle; background-color: rgb(239, 230, 186);" align="center"> H: 4
L: 3
R: 6
S: 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
H: 1
L: 1
R: 1
S: 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
H: 6
L: 6
R: 6
S: 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> PHI
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA-2
H: 2
L: 1
R: 3
S: 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 5
L: 5
R: 5
S: 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: top;" align="center"> MIA
H: 6
L: 6
R: 5
S: 6 </td></tr></tbody></table>Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database.

H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst.


Hitting notes




• The Boston Red Sox have been slumping, with a team batting average over the past week of only .210. However, we can break that down into two distinct groups: Carl Crawford, Cody Ross and Mike Aviles are a combined 4-for-45 (.089), while the quartet of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Will Middlebrooks, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia has hit a collective .323 (21-for-65). With seven games at home against two staffs that have been pretty generous on the road -- Detroit (4.17 ERA) and Minnesota (5.03 ERA) -- we're banking on these two groups coming together and meeting somewhere closer to the .300 neighborhood over the next few days.


• Brandon Phillips is hitting .386 with two homers and 10 RBIs over the past two weeks. Drew Stubbs has also been hot, with a .341 batting average and eight RBIs. San Diego and Pittsburgh rank 22nd and 24th, respectively, in terms of road ERA, and Cincinnati is tied for fifth in the majors with 65 home runs at home. The first-place Reds are primed to defend their lead in this highly anticipated weekend set with the upstart Pirates.


• Even after their latest streak -- including an 84 percent win percentage in July entering Friday -- Oakland's lineup is still ranked just 13th in the American League with a .229 batting average, and it's 12th in slugging at .382. That shows how big a hole they dug for themselves at the beginning of the season. Yoenis Cespedes, Brandon Inge, Chris Carter and Seth Smith have combined for 14 home runs over the past two weeks, Coco Crisp is hitting .406 over this stretch, and Jonny Gomes has eight hits in his past 19 at-bats (.421). Right now this A's lineup gets an "A" from us.


• Most teams have their ups and downs, but not the Houston Astros. It's all "down" with them, as they lead the National League in strikeouts with 815 and rank 26th in OPS at .681. Their team batting average has gotten progressively worse each month of the season, dropping from .257 in April to .244 in May, .238 in June, and now a woeful .219 in July. When your lone "bright spot" can reasonably be said to be Carlos Corporan, a catcher called up to replace the injured Jason Castro, that pretty much says it all. But hey, Corporan has gone 7-for-18 (.389) in his eight games with the club.

 

[HacheMan]

Timeline for Tulo?
When Troy Tulowitzki underwent surgery on June 21 to remove scar tissue from a nerve in his groin, he was expected to miss around six-to-eight weeks. This placed his return somewhere around mid-to-late August. We haven't heard much on his progress recently, but Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported Thursday that the out-of-contention Rockies were considering shutting him down for the rest of the season. Fortunately for fantasy owners, that report appears to be premature.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post spoke with Tulo, who said that he has begun hitting off a tee and continues to do light running. He plans to ramp up baseball activities as his body allows, so while there's no clear timetable for his return, he would like to play down the stretch in order to ease his mind going into the offseason. In other words, no shut down. At least not yet.

While fantasy owners would be wise to keep Tulowitzki safely tucked away in a DL-spot, rookie Josh Rutledge will continue to fill in at shortstop. The 23-year-old is hitting .356 (16-for-45) with one homer, five doubles, two triples, six RBI and three stolen bases over his first 12 games in the big leagues and is already making a case to be the Opening Day second baseman in 2013. The 2010 third-round pick has shown both power and speed in the minors, so he's well worth a look in deeper mixed formats right now.

First Impressions

Thursday night marked the debut of two top prospects, Mets right-hander Matt Harvey and Pirates outfielder Starling Marte. Both of them made history.

We'll start with Harvey, who struck out 11 batters over 5 1/3 shutout innings as part of a 3-1 win over the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The 23-year-old right-hander allowed three hits and three walks while throwing 65 out of 105 pitches for strikes. The 2010 first-round pick was sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball while his slider was absolutely filthy. According to Brooks Baseball, he had 18 swings-and-misses. And to think, the Mets went with Miguel Batista over him last Saturday against the Dodgers.

Harvey established a new club record for strikeouts by a pitcher in their major league debut, surpassing the previous record of eight, which was held by Tom Seaver (1967) and Bill Denehy (1967). His 11 strikeouts were the most by a pitcher in their major league debut since Stephen Strasburg struck out 14 Pirates two years ago. Harvey also went 2-for-2 with a double, becoming the first pitcher since 1900 to strike out 10 or more batters and get two or more hits in their first major league start.

Harvey's command can be an issue at times and his fastball can be a little straight, which is dangerous when he leaves it up in the strike zone, but there's no question that he has the goods to be a solid major league starter for a long time. He's obviously keeper gold, but his swing-and-miss potential could be pretty valuable in standard mixed leagues the rest of the way.

As for Marte, well, it didn't take long for him to make an impact against the Astros. In fact, it took just one pitch. Marte, who was inserted into the leadoff spot, ripped the first pitch he saw from left-hander Dallas Keuchel over the fence in left-center field.

Marte became the 28th player in major league history to homer on the first pitch of his career and the first Pirate to do it since Don Leppert on June 18, 1961. The 23-year-old outfielder added a single in the fifth inning and finished the night 2-for-4 with a caught stealing.

Marte earned the long-awaited promotion from Triple-A Indianapolis after hitting .286/.347/.500 with 46 extra-base hits (12 homers) 62 RBI, 21 stolen bases and an .847 OPS over 99 games this season. His plate discipline is a work in progress, so his transition to the majors might not be a smooth one, but it looks like the Pirates will continue to start him in left field and use him out of the leadoff spot. His dynamic skill set is worth owning in 12-14 team mixed leagues.

More Closer Drama in Milwaukee

On the heels of Francisco Rodriguez blowing a pair of saves this week against the Phillies, Brewers manager Ron Roenicke announced before Thursday's game that he will utilize a closer-by-committee for the time being.

Roenicke told Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that he hasn't ruled out any one pitcher for save chances, including veteran right-hander Livan Hernandez, who notched his first career save earlier this season as a member of the Braves. These are the kind of things managers say when their teams have lost seven straight games.

There's reason to believe this committee won't last very long, as John Axford has notched 5 1/3 scoreless innings since being pulled from the closer role less than two weeks ago, including three strikeouts over two shutout innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. The "Axman" is the pitcher to own in this bullpen and should be picked up in all fantasy leagues where he was dropped.

NL Quick Hits: In an interview with USA Today on Thursday, Brewers general manager Doug Melvin indicated that he intends to trade Zack Greinke before next Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline … Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the Dodgers turned down an offer from the Cubs that would have sent Ryan Dempster to Los Angeles straight up for prospect right-hander Allen Webster … A.J. Burnett notched his 12th win Thursday by allowing two runs over 7 1/3 innings against the Astros … Yovani Gallardo was knocked around for seven runs over five innings in Thursday's loss to the Nationals … Chris Capuano was tagged for six runs over 4 1/3 innings in Thursday's loss to the Cardinals and has a 4.50 ERA over his last six starts … David Freese left Thursday's game against the Dodgers with cramping in his right calf, but is considered day-to-day … Jonathan Lucroy went 1-for-3 in his return from the disabled list Thursday … Placido Polanco was placed on the disabled list Thursday with lower back inflammation … The Brewers designated George Kottaras for assignment on Thursday and are expected to trade him in the next couple of days … The Pirates have bumped Kevin Correia to the bullpen in favor of Wandy Rodriguez, who will make his first start with his new club Saturday against the Astros in Houston …

AL Quick Hits: Evan Longoria (hamstring) began a minor league rehab assignment Thursday with Triple-A Durham and went 0-for-3 with a walk … Edwin Encarnacion established a new career-high with his 27th homer Thursday … Carlos Santana went deep in Thursday's win over the Tigers and is hitting .333 (14-for-42) with three homers and eight RBI since the All-Star break … Nick Swisher (hip) will not be active for Friday's series opener against the Red Sox, but he could return as soon as Saturday … James Shields notched 10 strikeouts Thursday, but allowed five runs over six innings in a loss to the Orioles. Nevertheless, the Angels, Dodgers and Rangers have all expressed interest in the 30-year-old right-hander … Blue Jays manager John Farrell said Thursday that it's "premature" to discuss a possible demotion for Ricky Romero … Trevor Plouffe (thumb) is expected to return Friday … Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports that the Angels and Orioles remain in the mix for Twins left-hander Francisco Liriano … According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, closer Jonathan Broxton is the most likely Royal to be traded … Yunel Escobar (back) missed his second straight game Thursday … X-rays came back negative after J.J. Hardy was hit in the ribcage with a pitch during Thursday's game against the Rays … Vernon Wells (thumb) could be activated from the disabled list Friday … Mitch Moreland (hamstring) is scheduled to continue his rehab assignment Friday with Double-A Frisco … Roberto Hernandez allowed three runs (one earned) over five innings Thursday in his first minor league tune-up start with Class A Lake County …

 

[HacheMan]

Seeing Double at the Deadline Last week, I called out a number of two-start pitchers who were candidates to switch teams with July 31st rapidly approaching. Among the names mentioned – Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, Wandy Rodriguez and Clayton Richard – only Rodriguez has been dealt thus far.

The remaining names continue to buzz as we inch toward Tuesday's deadline, but none of them repeat as two-start pitchers.

The big name on this week's list is Ryan Dempster. He seems very likely to be traded, although talks between the Cubs and Dodgers have apparently stalled. Among other guys set to go twice, only Cliff Lee and maybe Edinson Volquez look like feasible candidates to move and both are long-shots. The flurry of trades that will undoubtedly take place in the coming days is sure to shake up the fantasy world, but aside from Dempster, most of the pitchers listed below should be locked in. (And of course, even if he's moved, there's a good chance Dempster could stay on schedule.)

Going Twice…

American League

Strong Plays

David Price: @OAK (Griffin), BAL (Gonzalez)
Tommy Milone: TB (Shields), TOR (Laffey)
A.J. Griffin: TB (Price), TOR (Romero)
Jered Weaver: @TEX (Feldman), @CWS (Floyd)
Max Scherzer: @BOS (Buchholz), CLE (Lowe)

Decent Plays

Aaron Laffey: @SEA (Vargas), @OAK (Milone)
Derek Holland: LAA (Santana), @KC (Hochevar)
Scott Feldman: LAA (Weaver), @KC (Smith)
Freddy Garcia: BAL (Gonzalez), SEA (Iwakuma)
Jose Quintana: @MIN (De Vries), LAA (Santana)
Josh Beckett: DET (Verlander), MIN (Blackburn)
Clay Buchholz: DET (Scherzer), MIN (De Vries)
Miguel Gonzalez: @NYY (Garcia), @TB (Price)

At Your Own Risk

Ricky Romero: @SEA (Iwakuma), @OAK (Griffin)
Hisashi Iwakuma: TOR (Romero), @NYY (Garcia)
Cole De Vries: CWS (Quintana), @BOS (Buchholz)
Nick Blackburn: CWS (Peavy), @BOS (Beckett)
Ervin Santana: @TEX (Holland), @CWS (Quintana)
Luke Hochevar: CLE (Lowe), TEX (Holland)
Derek Lowe: @KC (Hochevar), @DET (Scherzer)

National League

Strong Plays

Kyle Lohse: @COL (Francis), MIL (Estrada)
Stephen Strasburg: PHI (Lee), MIA (Nolasco)
Madison Bumgarner: NYM (Hefner), @COL (Francis)
Edinson Volquez: @CIN (Leake), NYM (Hefner)
Erik Bedard: @CHC (Dempster), @CIN (Bailey)
Cliff Lee: @WAS (Strasburg), ARI (Cahill)
Mark Buehrle: @ATL (Hanson), WAS (Lannan)
Aaron Harang: ARI (Cahill), CHC (Garza)
Homer Bailey: SD (Marquis), PIT (Bedard)
Ryan Dempster: PIT (Bedard), @LAD (Kershaw)

Decent Plays

Tim Lincecum: NYM (Harvey), @COL (Friedrich)
Jason Marquis: @CIN (Bailey), NYM (Harvey)
Matt Harvey: @SF (Lincecum), @SD (Marquis)
Marco Estrada: HOU (Norris), @STL (Lohse)
Bud Norris: @MIL (Estrada), @ATL (Jurrjens)
Jeff Francis: STL (Lohse), SF (Bumgarner)
Mike Leake: SD (Volquez), PIT (Bedard)
Tommy Hanson: MIA (Buehrle), HOU (Harrell)
Trevor Cahill: @LAD (Harang), @PHI (Lee)

At Your Own Risk

Jeremy Hefner: @SF (Bumgarner), @SD (Volquez)
Ricky Nolasco: @ATL (Jurrjens), @WAS (Strasburg)
Christian Friedrich: STL (Westbrook), SF (Lincecum)
Jair Jurrjens: MIA (Nolasco), HOU (Norris)
<!--RW-->
Streamer City

The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 8/1: Carlos Villanueva @ SEA
He has sparkled since moving to the rotation in early July, turning in a 2.13 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning.

Friday, 8/3: Brett Cecil @ OAK
Cecil faced the A's this past week and held them to two runs over six innings while fanning eight. It was one of three quality starts in his past four turns.

Friday, 8/3: Tommy Hunter @ TB
The right-hander has performed well in two road starts since being recalled from the minors, allowing four runs and zero walks over 14 1/3 innings.

National League

Thursday, 8/2: Nathan Eovaldi @ ATL
As the top prospect received in return for Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins have high hopes for Eovaldi and will give him every opportunity. He's got the stuff to succeed.

Friday, 8/3: Clayton Richard vs. NYM
The southpaw has posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home in San Diego this season.

Total Games

American League

6: BAL, CLE, CWS, DET, KC, NYY, SEA, TB
7: BOS, LAA, MIN, OAK, TEX, TOR

National League

6: ARI, ATL, CHC, COL, HOU, LAD, MIL, PHI, PIT, STL
7: CIN, NYM, SD, SF, WAS
8: MIA

Lefty/Righty Breakdowns

American League

BAL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
BOS: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CLE: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
CWS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
DET: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
KC: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
LAA: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
MIN: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
NYY: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
OAK: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
SEA: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
TB: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TEX: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
TOR: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
ATL: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CHC: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CIN: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
COL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
HOU: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
LAD: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIA: 6 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
NYM: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
PHI: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
PIT: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
SD: 7 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
SF: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
STL: 2 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
WAS: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP

The Infirmary

You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:

Matt Diaz: Out indefinitely (thumb)
Jason Giambi: Out indefinitely (illness)
Adam Kennedy: Out indefinitely (groin)
Johan Santana: Out until mid-August (ankle)
Alex Rodriguez: Out until mid-September (hand)
Placido Polanco: Out until mid-August (back)
Colby Lewis: Out for the season (arm)
J.P. Arencibia: Out until September (hand)
Ian Desmond: Out indefinitely (ribs)

 

[HacheMan]

Newfound power: Will it stay or go?

Andrew McCutchen, Edwin Encarnacion, others riding elevated home run paces


By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: As much as you've enjoyed owning Andrew McCutchen this season, you could be better off without him.


Why? Because power gains can be precarious. In my last Under the Microscope, we met the possibility of dealing McCutchen and Mike Trout in redraft leagues. It was suggested, along with numbers to back it, that both McCutchen and Trout would be unable to sustain their present level of performance. The premise: Someone in your league might be willing to not only deal you a player who will impact your roster as much as these outfield phenoms, but you possibly could get a bonus due to the sexiness of their name recognition.

<offer>The key to that premise, which may have gotten lost in the mere suggestion that you deal these young superstars, is that neither player is likely to maintain his rate of production as the season wears on. And suggesting their high batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) will regress is only part of the story. Today we look at the probability that a first-half power surge will be carried over to the second half.</offer>


What we'll do first is put the 2009-2011 campaigns under the microscope in an effort to discern whether the 2012 pre-All Star break leaders in home runs are likely to continue swatting big flies or if their pace will wane. We'll look at each year individually, focusing on players who hit 15 or more homers before the break and had a minimum of 100 plate appearances after the break. The metric used will be plate appearances per home run (PA/HR), so the smaller the number, the greater the power.


Below is the data for everyone fulfilling the above criteria. The "pre-ASB" number shows how many 15-plus-homer sluggers had a better PA/HR before the All-Star break than after it, while the "post-ASB" figure shows how many players had a better PA/HR after it.



<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Pre-ASB </th><th> Post-ASB </th><th> Percent pre-ASB </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 19 </td><td> 13 </td><td> 59.4 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 25 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 71.4 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 31 </td><td> 14 </td><td> 68.9 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Total </td><td> 75 </td><td> 37 </td><td> 67.0 percent </td></tr></tbody></table>



Now let's narrow the sample to the top 10 home run hitters at the break:


<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Pre-ASB </th><th> Post-ASB </th><th> Percent pre-ASB </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 9 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 90.0 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 70.0 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 60.0 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Total </td><td> 22 </td><td> 8 </td><td> 73.3 percent </td></tr></tbody></table>



Even though the above study is quite simplistic, there is ample evidence to suggest that if you assume everyone on the home run leaderboard will slow down their pace, you'll be right at least two-thirds of the time. That's a strong case for McCutchen being placed on the trading block.


However, I fully realize that for many owners, a stronger case is necessary. After all, this is a guy with a strong pedigree, including the reputation of developing power. Who's to say the Pirates' center fielder isn't in the minority and won't continue to flourish?


In order to analyze this, we need to go back to the components of a home run, which involves the number of fly balls a batter hits and the percentage of fly balls that clear the fence (HR/FB). While there is some fluctuation with regard to each batter's hit distribution, most develop a personal baseline. A change in mechanics or approach can alter this baseline, as can an injury (which influences the player to hit more grounders or fly balls), but much like batting average on balls in play (BABIP), each player develops a unique HR/FB. While there is some random fluctuation around this point, a player can also enjoy some good fortune or incur some bad fortune. By the end of the season, a player's HR/FB usually settles in where it's supposed to, or at least heads in that direction after a good or bad first half (i.e. the regression never fully kicks in), but it's plausible that the player realizes an improved skill level or endures a decline.

The trick is delineating whether a HR/FB increase is due to an improved skill level or simply luck. Unfortunately, there's no magic formula. All we can do is understand what generally happens, then take things on a case-by-case basis and make our best guess as to what will ensue for the player in question. However, keep in mind that if you study the top 10-20 home run hitters from the first half, you can conclude that at least 60 percent of them (and probably more) will have worse PA/HR rates in the second half. Sure, that does leave room for optimism, but be careful not to let emotion get in the way of objectivity.


Let's get a feel for HR/FB in global terms so that when we look at specific players, we have something by which to frame their numbers. Last season, the league-average HR/FB was 9.4 percent. Giancarlo Stanton led the way with a 24.8 percent mark, Mark Reynolds was next at 22.7 percent, followed closely by Jose Bautista and his 22.5 percent mark. In 2010, the average was 9.7 percent, with Joey Votto setting the pace at 25.0 percent. With this as a background, it's safe to say the expected HR/FB range for the top power hitters is in the low- to mid-20s.


To get a sense for how rare it is for a player to sport a HR/FB that is improved by more than 50 percent from the previous season, only three times since 2008 has someone gained that much and finished the season with 20-plus percent: Joe Mauer and Raul Ibanez in 2009, and Jose Bautista in 2010. Adam Jones came close in 2009, as his 17.8 percent bested his 2008 mark of 6.9 percent. Also in 2009, veteran Derrek Lee spiked at 17.9 percent after spending the bulk of his career just above league average in terms of HR/FB percentage. Last season, Jacoby Ellsbury jumped from 4.6 percent to 16.7 percent, Asdrubal Cabrera ballooned to 13.3 percent from 4.7 percent and Corey Hart fell just short of 20 percent, finishing at 19.7 percent after posting an 8.8 percent in 2010. Michael Young and Derek Jeter have enjoyed recent moderate spikes, as well. The take-home lesson is that significant seasonal increases in HR/FB are few and far between (and not usually sustainable the following year, which is something we'll revisit when it comes time to evaluate the 2013 player pool).


With that as a backdrop, let's look at some of the more intriguing power sources so far this season to determine if their home run pace will carry over to the final two months:


Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: With 28 homers, Encarnacion has already set a career high. His 19 percent HR/FB is also a personal best, but he has dabbled in the mid-teens in previous seasons and has a career HR/FB mark of 12.8 percent. His walks are up and strikeouts are about his norm, so there's a good chance Encarnacion ends up as one of those hitters who maintains, if not improves upon, his first-half pace, though it's still reasonable to assume a slight drop-off. However, if Encarnacion's owner is looking to sell high and you need some pop, this is definitely an avenue to consider.


Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins: Willingham sure must enjoy a challenge, as he has called some of the toughest hitting parks in the majors home. Willingham has tamed spacious Target Field this season, hitting 17 of his 27 bombs there. However, it's going to be tough for him to maintain his current 25.7 percent HR/FB rate. While his walk rate is up (which could be because opposing pitchers don't want to let Willingham beat them), he's actually hitting fewer fly balls than normal. If this persists and the HR/FB does indeed regress, Willingham's pace is bound to slow, perhaps considerably. I believe he'll still hit a goodly amount of homers, but he should fall well short of his present pace of 44. In fact, I'll take the under on 38.

Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels: With a .304 average and 27 homers, Trumbo is doing his best Albert Pujols impersonation. Unfortunately, much like Willingham, Trumbo is sporting an extremely high 25.2 percent HR/FB rate, which is likely to regress toward a mark in the high teens, still good but not quite Pujolsian. As opposed to Willingham, Trumbo rarely takes a free pass, which could be interpreted as a positive since that increases his at-bats, but I still see it as a negative because there's a correlation between plate patience and power.


Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates: Don't look now, but Alvarez has 21 dingers. The problem is I don't see him even reaching 30. His HR/FB is an astronomical 26.6 percent, which is just not a level he can sustain. Now consider Alvarez is fanning even more than usual while walking less and the stereotypical sell-high moniker is in neon lights.


Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: I feel the same about him as I did before the All-Star break: If you can parlay McCutchen into a more reliable player or perhaps fill multiple holes, you owe it to your team to pursue such an endeavor. Forget the .415 BABIP, it's his 23.4 percent HR/FB rate that is on its way down. I'm sorry, I'm just not buying into league-leading power from him, and since McCutchen's fly balls are way down, when the HR/FB regresses, the homers will slow precipitously.

 

[HacheMan]

Which pitchers will rise, fall off?

K/BB rate can go long way to figure out future value of pitchers in all leagues

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

Fantasy owners would love to be able to come up with the holy grail of statistics, that one number they can look at and instantly decide whether a player is on his way up or is headed for a jump off the proverbial cliff in terms of future performance.

Of course, life does not work that way. Things are never that simple. However, at least when it comes to pitchers -- especially in points leagues -- there is one number that can serve as an early warning system of sorts. If you're looking for one of the biggest red flags in the fantasy world, look no further than a starting pitcher's K/BB rate.


A quick look at the top-ranked pitchers in terms of ESPN standard scoring thus far in 2012 and the large gap between the number of strikeouts they've tallied in relation to the free passes they've issued to hitters this season and you'll see nary a slacker in the group:


<table><thead><tr><th> Name </th><th> W </th><th> L </th><th> ERA </th><th> K/BB </th><th> Points </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> R.A. Dickey </td><td> 14 </td><td> 2 </td><td> 2.83 </td><td> 4.45 </td><td> 403 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Justin Verlander </td><td> 11 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 2.60 </td><td> 4.06 </td><td> 400 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Matt Cain </td><td> 10 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 2.80 </td><td> 4.81 </td><td> 365 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Felix Hernandez </td><td> 9 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 2.79 </td><td> 3.73 </td><td> 364 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> David Price </td><td> 14 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 2.57 </td><td> 3.02 </td><td> 348 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Clayton Kershaw </td><td> 8 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 2.95 </td><td> 3.67 </td><td> 345 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Stephen Strasburg </td><td> 11 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 2.76 </td><td> 4.72 </td><td> 335 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Chris Sale </td><td> 12 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 2.61 </td><td> 3.68 </td><td> 332 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jered Weaver </td><td> 13 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 2.26 </td><td> 3.42 </td><td> 328 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Johnny Cueto </td><td> 13 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 2.39 </td><td> 3.12 </td><td> 322 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Cole Hamels </td><td> 11 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 3.31 </td><td> 3.54 </td><td> 322 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Madison Bumgarner </td><td> 11 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 3.10 </td><td> 4.48 </td><td> 320 </td></tr></tbody></table>



The only pitcher with a somewhat disappointing K/BB in this group is David Price, but, looking at his recent run of seven games with a 6-0 record and 1.82 ERA, over those games, he has had a 4.0 K/BB. In his prior seven starts, in which he went 3-3 with a 3.57 ERA, that number was only 2.39.


It's not a direct indicator of success or failure, but, more often than not, there's at least some semblance of a correlation between a K/BB of 2.0 or lower and poor performance, not only in real life but especially in points leagues.


Take a look at the top 50 pitchers who come closest to the 2.0 K/BB mark and you'll see some pitchers who have been struggling:


<table><thead><tr><th> Name </th><th> W </th><th> L </th><th> ERA </th><th> K/BB </th><th> Points </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> C.J. Wilson </td><td> 9 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 2.88 </td><td> 1.92 </td><td> 284 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Yu Darvish </td><td> 11 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 4.05 </td><td> 2.16 </td><td> 245 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ryan Vogelsong </td><td> 8 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 2.22 </td><td> 2.21 </td><td> 289 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Matt Harrison </td><td> 12 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 3.19 </td><td> 2.25 </td><td> 251 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> James McDonald </td><td> 10 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 3.38 </td><td> 2.30 </td><td> 280 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jason Vargas </td><td> 11 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 3.76 </td><td> 2.34 </td><td> 263 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Tim Hudson </td><td> 10 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 3.68 </td><td> 2.34 </td><td> 204 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Wei-Yin Chen </td><td> 9 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 3.65 </td><td> 2.44 </td><td> 245 </td></tr></tbody></table>



Using C.J. Wilson as an example, the All Star is 0-3 with a 4.23 ERA in July, and his K/BB has been a "below the threshold" 1.79. Before that, he was 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA and a K/BB of 1.98. That's still not great, and it might speak to his style of pitching, as his career K/BB is 2.12. But the worse that number gets, the fewer fantasy points a pitcher will accumulate. Plus, last season, when Wilson finished sixth in AL CY Young voting, he did post a career-high 2.78 K/BB. It's not as if he "can't" do better than he's doing.



So, if you're looking to see which pitchers might well be headed for a fall, let's finish up our discussion on K/BB by listing some pitchers with an ERA under 4.00 and a K/BB under 2.00. As the fantasy trade deadline continues its fast approach, perhaps these are the "Hemingway" pitchers: the kinds of arms you might want to bid a fond farewell to before the bottom drops out.


<table><thead><tr><th> Name </th><th> W </th><th> L </th><th> ERA </th><th> K/BB </th><th> Points </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Edinson Volquez </td><td> 6 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 3.30 </td><td> 1.60 </td><td> 234 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Aaron Harang </td><td> 7 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 3.39 </td><td> 1.83 </td><td> 213 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Barry Zito </td><td> 8 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 3.89 </td><td> 1.37 </td><td> 208 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jarrod Parker </td><td> 7 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 3.38 </td><td> 1.95 </td><td> 203 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Trevor Cahill </td><td> 8 </td><td> 9 </td><td> 3.86 </td><td> 1.86 </td><td> 189 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Jeremy Hellickson </td><td> 6 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 3.23 </td><td> 1.80 </td><td> 187 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Ted Lilly </td><td> 5 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 3.14 </td><td> 1.63 </td><td> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Neftali Feliz </td><td> 3 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 3.16 </td><td> 1.61 </td><td> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Nate Eovaldi </td><td> 2 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 3.94 </td><td> 1.77 </td><td> 60 </td></tr></tbody></table>



One final note before we get into this week's hot commodities: After last week's column, which outlined the difficulty of weighing the value of hitters relative to pitchers and vice versa, I decided to adjust the top 100 rankings a bit to get them a little more in line with that process. As a result, you will see a lot fewer starting pitchers in the list, and those who remain have been scaled back a bit in terms of weighing their past production versus future projections. Hopefully, this "new" format will be more helpful in terms of making lineup decisions going forward. Practice what you preach!



TOP 100 OVERALL PLAYERS

Note: AJ Mass' top 100 overall players are ranked based on statistics that have already been accrued in ESPN standard points formats and should be used as a supplement to the ESPN Player Rater.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, 3B, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> E. Encarnacion, 1B/3B, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A. McCutchen, OF, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, OF, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, DH, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, SP, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Trout, OF, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, SP, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, OF, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, OF, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, 1B/3B, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rios, OF, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, OF, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J. Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, SP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A. Chapman, RP, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, RP, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, OF, BAL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> S. Strasburg, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, OF, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Hanrahan, RP, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, H, MIL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, SP, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> M. Bumgarner, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, SP, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, SS, MIA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, 1B, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, 1B, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, 3B/OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, C/1B, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Reddick, OF, OAK </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C. Granderson, OF, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kubel, OF, ARI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Hill, 2B, ARI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, SP, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, C, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R. Zimmerman, 3B, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> H. Ramirez, SS/3B, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J. Zimmermann, SP, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, OF, DET </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, SP, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, OF, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, SP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, OF, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Furcal, SS, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Brantley, OF, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, C/1B, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Motte, RP, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, OF, CIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Perez, RP, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Rasmus, OF, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A. Gonzalez, 1B/OF, BOS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, 3B, TOR </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> M. Cuddyer, 1B/OF, COL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Soriano, RP, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, SP, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, OF, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, OF, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, SP, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, 3B, STL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, SP, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, SS, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Denard Span, OF, MIN </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A. De Aza, OF, CHW </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> N/R </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A. Cabrera, SS, CLE </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, SP, PIT </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Desmond, SS, WAS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Pointing Up



Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: Since the second half started, Zimmerman has been on fire, with a .384 batting average and 1.198 OPS in his past 18 games. That's not to say it has all been roses and sunshine. Zimmerman did go through a midweek stretch in the last scoring period in which he went 2-for-12 with no extra-base hits and six strikeouts, however, as Eddie Izzard would say, "If you start strong and end strong, nobody remembers the middle bit."


Shane Victorino, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: I won't begin to try to read Victorino's mind, but, if he's trying to do all he can to make himself appealing to other clubs as the trade deadline approaches, he couldn't have had a better week. In his five starts, he went 8-for-19 (.421) and even stole three bases in four tries -- more running than he had done in the previous 19 games combined. If not for the one game he left after one at-bat with an elbow injury, he would have a nine-game hitting streak working. The Hawaiian is Flyin' yet again.


Chris Perez, RP, Cleveland Indians: There've been two straight scoring periods now in which Perez has had at least 24 fantasy points, thanks to retiring 18 of 21 batters faced since July 13. At that success rate, it hardly matters how many save chances he gets. Perez is 5-for-5 in saves in his past six appearances even though the Tribe is only 6-11 since the break. Whether or not Cleveland ends up righting the ship, Perez's value remains solid.


Denard Span, OF, Minnesota Twins: A seven-game hitting streak in which he hit .414 with two steals and eight runs scored has seen Span's value skyrocket. Span's power numbers (3 HRs, 32 RBIs in 2012) leave a lot to be desired, but, at least with five doubles in the past week, he's showing some pop that wasn't there in his previous 18 games, when he managed just two doubles and a .275 batting average.


Adrian Gonzalez, 1B/OF, Boston Red Sox: Gonzalez is hitting .405 this season against the New York Yankees, including a 6-for-13 series last week in which he homered and drove in four runs. Boston still has nine more games left on the schedule versus the Bronx Bombers later this season, but, for now, Gonzalez's owners can smile in the knowledge that his next 10 games come at Fenway Park, where he's hitting .312 this season.


Wade Miley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: Keeping with our K/BB theme, Miley has been just 2-3 with a 6.04 ERA in his past five starts, but most of that damage came June 30 in an awful 10-2 loss in Milwaukee in which he allowed eight runs in 3 2/3 innings. His K/BB in this stretch is a very healthy 4.8, only a slight drop from the 5.5 K/BB he has posted since May 12. He'll be just fine.


Pointing Down



Ricky Romero, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: Four of Romero's past six starts have resulted in not just negative fantasy value but double-digit negative fantasy value. In a word: ugly. Even in his other two starts in that stretch -- both quality starts -- he took the loss. Few pitchers are going to emerge from an 0-6 run unscarred, but that .364 BAA and hideous 0.73 K/BB rate have us shielding our eyes and recoiling in horror.


Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves: It's a points league thing that magnifies any slumping done by Uggla. Certainly, any hitter who goes 1-for-24 is going to hurt your fantasy lineup. However, when you add an extra 10 points off thanks to strikeouts, the damage is even worse. Although hope springs eternal, you kind of have to bench Uggla right now because of his .171 slugging percentage in July.


Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers: He has gone just 6-for-48 (.125) since action resumed July 13, and only two of those hits went for extra bases. Add to the mix 19 strikeouts over his 55 plate appearances and even the Rangers felt the need to give the league leader in RBIs some time off. Hamilton's slide is not going to last forever, but certainly you can't call giving you as much fantasy production as Omar Vizquel in the past 15 days a "positive sign."


Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore Orioles: You should never overreact to one bad outing, even one as abysmally awful as Johnson's 1/3 of an inning against Oakland when he gave up six runs on five hits and a walk. That said, Johnson's post-break ERA was 10.50 before that game, and the Orioles are in the midst of their first losing month of the season. The clock might be striking midnight for this potential Cinderella squad, and Johnson's upside might be in the rearview mirror as a result.


Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cleveland Indians: He ranks fourth among all hitters named Cabrera over the past two weeks. All kidding aside, despite a .348 batting average last scoring period, he managed just six fantasy points thanks to no walks and only a single run scored. Considering the Indians' offense has scored more than three runs in a game only twice since July 15, we're thinking perhaps this week's production was as good as it is going to get from Asdrubal.


Matt Harrison, SP, Texas Rangers: Sure, he shut out Seattle on July 15, but that's been it in terms of victories this month. Could the 1.45 K/BB rate have something to do with it? Considering it was 2.6 at the end of June, we tend to think so. The home run ball also isn't doing him any favors as he allowed four home runs in his three July losses. Putting men on base, then serving up the long ball on a silver platter? Never a good combination.

 

[HacheMan]

LoMo Problems

Logan Morrison has been one of many disappointments on the Marlins this season, and now it looks like his season will end prematurely.



The Marlins placed the 24-year-old on the disabled list Sunday with inflammation in his right knee, but he still needs to undergo an MRI, and the fear is that he could have a tear of his patellar tendon. If that’s the case, LoMo would need season-ending surgery.



Having issues with his right knee is nothing new for Morrison, as he played through tendinitis in the knee for much of last season before undergoing arthroscopic surgery over the offseason. The knee has never felt quite right since then, though, and Morrison finally admitted as much to manager Ozzie Guillen over the weekend.



“There’s good days and there’s bad days, but, for the most part, there’s always something,” Morrison said in the Miami Herald. “It’s so frustrating, not even being able to run like I want to, much less hitting.”



If Morrison is indeed done for the season, he’ll end the year with a disappointing .230/.308/.399 batting line with 11 homers and 36 RBI. Austin Kearns seems likely to benefit the most playing time-wise from LoMo’s absence, though Donovan Solano and Bryan Petersen will be in the mix, as well.



Brian Roberts Goes Down Again



Morrison isn’t the only one that’s staring down season-ending surgery, as Brian Roberts has decided that a labral tear in his right hip will not heal without an operation. He’ll go under the knife sometime within the next 7-10 days.



“It just hasn't responded the way we were hoping it would,” Roberts said in the Baltimore Sun. “We kind of knew this was a possibility going into it, but we wanted to give it the best possible shot we could to get back out there and try and help for the last two months of the season. But it's not going to put me in a position to play the way I want to play and the way that I think it's necessary to help.”



It’s yet another major injury for the veteran infielder, as Roberts has been limited to 115 games since the beginning of the 2010 season, mostly due to concussion issues. He’ll need 4-6 months of rehab time, so the Orioles are hoping he’ll be ready to roll for the beginning of spring training. Of course, given his history, that’s anything but a safe bet. Robert Andino (shoulder) is expected to return from the DL Tuesday and will hold down second base.







National League Quick Hits: Huston Street has signed a two-year extension with the Padres that includes a team option for a third year. The Pads have now removed two potential trade targets from the market after locking up Street and Carlos Quentin … The Diamondbacks acquired Chris Johnson from the Astros in exchange for outfield prospects Bobby Borchering and Marc Krauss. Johnson will be Arizona’s everyday third baseman … Rafael Furcal didn’t start Sunday for the second straight game due to back stiffness. He’s considered day-to-day … Shaun Marcum (elbow) has resumed throwing from a mound after having a minor setback last week with his shoulder. Marcum could be a candidate to be traded next month once he’s healthy … Adam LaRoche exited Sunday’s game with back tightness. He’s considered day-to-day … The Padres don’t seem to be thrilled with offers they’ve received for Chase Headley to this point and might be willing to wait until the offseason to trade him … Carlos Ruiz has been plagued by plantar fasciitis in his left foot over the last two weeks. He’s not expected to need a DL stint but could require periodic rest … Kevin Correia has requested a trade from the Pirates. He was recently demoted to the bullpen following the acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez … Both John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez were knocked around Sunday. The Brewers are going with a closer-by-committee, and Kameron Loe might be the next guy to get a shot.



American League Quick Hits: Neftali Feliz was scratched from Sunday’s rehab start after experiencing renewed discomfort in his right elbow. It’s not clear at this point how severe the setback is, but obviously Feliz won’t be rejoining the Rangers’ rotation anytime soon … Mike Trout was scratched from Sunday's lineup due to a left knee contusion. It’s not considered to be a big deal, and he could return as soon as Monday for the series opener against the Rangers … Brandon League will reportedly be traded soon, though it’s not clear at this point who to. The veteran reliever boasts a 1.96 ERA since the beginning of June … Justin Morneau went 3-for-4 with a two-run homer in Sunday’s win over the Indians. He’s heating up just in time to possibly be dealt to a contender, boasting a .327 average in 13 games since the All-Star break … George Kottaras was acquired by the A’s Sunday in exchange for Fautino De Los Santos. He should play fairly regularly against right-handed pitching … Brandon Morrow (oblique) made the first of four scheduled rehab starts Sunday. He should be back in late August if all goes well … The Red Sox reportedly want to move Josh Beckett. But, as a 10-and-5 guy, Beckett can veto any trade … Carl Crawford is considering Tommy John surgery for his left elbow. He’ll make a decision in 7-10 days … Andy Pettitte’s recovery from an ankle injury is going slower than expected after he pushed it too hard on his rehab. He had been hoping to return on September 1, but that might not happen now.​

 

[HacheMan]

Newfound power: Will it stay or go?

Andrew McCutchen, Edwin Encarnacion, others riding elevated home run paces

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: As much as you've enjoyed owning Andrew McCutchen this season, you could be better off without him.


Why? Because power gains can be precarious. In my last Under the Microscope, we met the possibility of dealing McCutchen and Mike Trout in redraft leagues. It was suggested, along with numbers to back it, that both McCutchen and Trout would be unable to sustain their present level of performance. The premise: Someone in your league might be willing to not only deal you a player who will impact your roster as much as these outfield phenoms, but you possibly could get a bonus due to the sexiness of their name recognition.

<offer>The key to that premise, which may have gotten lost in the mere suggestion that you deal these young superstars, is that neither player is likely to maintain his rate of production as the season wears on. And suggesting their high batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) will regress is only part of the story. Today we look at the probability that a first-half power surge will be carried over to the second half.</offer>


What we'll do first is put the 2009-2011 campaigns under the microscope in an effort to discern whether the 2012 pre-All Star break leaders in home runs are likely to continue swatting big flies or if their pace will wane. We'll look at each year individually, focusing on players who hit 15 or more homers before the break and had a minimum of 100 plate appearances after the break. The metric used will be plate appearances per home run (PA/HR), so the smaller the number, the greater the power.


Below is the data for everyone fulfilling the above criteria. The "pre-ASB" number shows how many 15-plus-homer sluggers had a better PA/HR before the All-Star break than after it, while the "post-ASB" figure shows how many players had a better PA/HR after it.



<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Pre-ASB </th><th> Post-ASB </th><th> Percent pre-ASB </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 19 </td><td> 13 </td><td> 59.4 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 25 </td><td> 10 </td><td> 71.4 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 31 </td><td> 14 </td><td> 68.9 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Total </td><td> 75 </td><td> 37 </td><td> 67.0 percent </td></tr></tbody></table>



Now let's narrow the sample to the top 10 home run hitters at the break:


<table><thead><tr><th> Year </th><th> Pre-ASB </th><th> Post-ASB </th><th> Percent pre-ASB </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> 2011 </td><td> 9 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 90.0 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2010 </td><td> 7 </td><td> 3 </td><td> 70.0 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> 2009 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 4 </td><td> 60.0 percent </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> Total </td><td> 22 </td><td> 8 </td><td> 73.3 percent </td></tr></tbody></table>



Even though the above study is quite simplistic, there is ample evidence to suggest that if you assume everyone on the home run leaderboard will slow down their pace, you'll be right at least two-thirds of the time. That's a strong case for McCutchen being placed on the trading block.


However, I fully realize that for many owners, a stronger case is necessary. After all, this is a guy with a strong pedigree, including the reputation of developing power. Who's to say the Pirates' center fielder isn't in the minority and won't continue to flourish?


In order to analyze this, we need to go back to the components of a home run, which involves the number of fly balls a batter hits and the percentage of fly balls that clear the fence (HR/FB). While there is some fluctuation with regard to each batter's hit distribution, most develop a personal baseline. A change in mechanics or approach can alter this baseline, as can an injury (which influences the player to hit more grounders or fly balls), but much like batting average on balls in play (BABIP), each player develops a unique HR/FB. While there is some random fluctuation around this point, a player can also enjoy some good fortune or incur some bad fortune. By the end of the season, a player's HR/FB usually settles in where it's supposed to, or at least heads in that direction after a good or bad first half (i.e. the regression never fully kicks in), but it's plausible that the player realizes an improved skill level or endures a decline.

The trick is delineating whether a HR/FB increase is due to an improved skill level or simply luck. Unfortunately, there's no magic formula. All we can do is understand what generally happens, then take things on a case-by-case basis and make our best guess as to what will ensue for the player in question. However, keep in mind that if you study the top 10-20 home run hitters from the first half, you can conclude that at least 60 percent of them (and probably more) will have worse PA/HR rates in the second half. Sure, that does leave room for optimism, but be careful not to let emotion get in the way of objectivity.


Let's get a feel for HR/FB in global terms so that when we look at specific players, we have something by which to frame their numbers. Last season, the league-average HR/FB was 9.4 percent. Giancarlo Stanton led the way with a 24.8 percent mark, Mark Reynolds was next at 22.7 percent, followed closely by Jose Bautista and his 22.5 percent mark. In 2010, the average was 9.7 percent, with Joey Votto setting the pace at 25.0 percent. With this as a background, it's safe to say the expected HR/FB range for the top power hitters is in the low- to mid-20s.


To get a sense for how rare it is for a player to sport a HR/FB that is improved by more than 50 percent from the previous season, only three times since 2008 has someone gained that much and finished the season with 20-plus percent: Joe Mauer and Raul Ibanez in 2009, and Jose Bautista in 2010. Adam Jones came close in 2009, as his 17.8 percent bested his 2008 mark of 6.9 percent. Also in 2009, veteran Derrek Lee spiked at 17.9 percent after spending the bulk of his career just above league average in terms of HR/FB percentage. Last season, Jacoby Ellsbury jumped from 4.6 percent to 16.7 percent, Asdrubal Cabrera ballooned to 13.3 percent from 4.7 percent and Corey Hart fell just short of 20 percent, finishing at 19.7 percent after posting an 8.8 percent in 2010. Michael Young and Derek Jeter have enjoyed recent moderate spikes, as well. The take-home lesson is that significant seasonal increases in HR/FB are few and far between (and not usually sustainable the following year, which is something we'll revisit when it comes time to evaluate the 2013 player pool).


With that as a backdrop, let's look at some of the more intriguing power sources so far this season to determine if their home run pace will carry over to the final two months:


Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: With 28 homers, Encarnacion has already set a career high. His 19 percent HR/FB is also a personal best, but he has dabbled in the mid-teens in previous seasons and has a career HR/FB mark of 12.8 percent. His walks are up and strikeouts are about his norm, so there's a good chance Encarnacion ends up as one of those hitters who maintains, if not improves upon, his first-half pace, though it's still reasonable to assume a slight drop-off. However, if Encarnacion's owner is looking to sell high and you need some pop, this is definitely an avenue to consider.


Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins: Willingham sure must enjoy a challenge, as he has called some of the toughest hitting parks in the majors home. Willingham has tamed spacious Target Field this season, hitting 17 of his 27 bombs there. However, it's going to be tough for him to maintain his current 25.7 percent HR/FB rate. While his walk rate is up (which could be because opposing pitchers don't want to let Willingham beat them), he's actually hitting fewer fly balls than normal. If this persists and the HR/FB does indeed regress, Willingham's pace is bound to slow, perhaps considerably. I believe he'll still hit a goodly amount of homers, but he should fall well short of his present pace of 44. In fact, I'll take the under on 38.

Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels: With a .304 average and 27 homers, Trumbo is doing his best Albert Pujols impersonation. Unfortunately, much like Willingham, Trumbo is sporting an extremely high 25.2 percent HR/FB rate, which is likely to regress toward a mark in the high teens, still good but not quite Pujolsian. As opposed to Willingham, Trumbo rarely takes a free pass, which could be interpreted as a positive since that increases his at-bats, but I still see it as a negative because there's a correlation between plate patience and power.


Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates: Don't look now, but Alvarez has 21 dingers. The problem is I don't see him even reaching 30. His HR/FB is an astronomical 26.6 percent, which is just not a level he can sustain. Now consider Alvarez is fanning even more than usual while walking less and the stereotypical sell-high moniker is in neon lights.


Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: I feel the same about him as I did before the All-Star break: If you can parlay McCutchen into a more reliable player or perhaps fill multiple holes, you owe it to your team to pursue such an endeavor. Forget the .415 BABIP, it's his 23.4 percent HR/FB rate that is on its way down. I'm sorry, I'm just not buying into league-leading power from him, and since McCutchen's fly balls are way down, when the HR/FB regresses, the homers will slow precipitously.

 

[HacheMan]

Jonathan Broxton an odd fit for Reds

Keith Law

Jonathan Broxton is a peculiar addition for the Cincinnati Reds, for whom the bullpen is a strength while the top of the lineup is a festering sore.
<offer>Broxton hasn't thrown as hard or missed as many bats the past two years as he did prior to his injury, succeeding this year thanks to a spike in his ground ball rate because of a little increased life on his fastball, which previously was flatter and thus easier to hit in the air. He's a depth guy for the Reds, who were a little left-handed in the back of their 'pen but didn't need a premium arm with Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall present.


In exchange for Broxton, the Kansas City Royals get right-hander J.C. Sulbaran, a possible back-end starter who's 90-94 mph with a plus changeup and some feel for a curveball. Born in Curacao, he has competed for the Netherlands in several international competitions, including the Beijing Olympics in 2008. He was also a high school teammate of Eric Hosmer. His fastball is true and his command is erratic, both of which hold him back as a potential starter, although with the potential for two above-average secondary pitches he could be an effective non-specialist reliever. He has whiffed more than a man per inning for Double-A Pensacola.


Left-hander Donnie Joseph is currently at Triple-A and is strictly a reliever, most likely a lefty specialist with a fastball/slider combination that has left-handed batters 7-for-54 against him this year with 24 punchouts and two extra-base hits across two levels. For Broxton, it's a solid return.


Marlins-Cardinals trade



I'm surprised that the Cardinals gave up so quickly on 2010 first-rounder Zack Cox, although in their defense he has been awful this year as a 23-year-old in Triple-A, posting a .294 OBP; he hasn't drawn a walk since June 21, a span covering 25 games and exactly 100 at-bats. Cox has above-average raw power that has started to show up in games this year, although he still has a whole-field approach that unfortunately doesn't include working the count as much as it has to. He's fringy at third base with a plus arm but a slow lower half.
Is that too high of a price for a homer-prone right-handed reliever? I tend to think it is. Edward Mujica has switched to using a two-seamer more often this year to try to keep the ball in the park, without great success and at a cost of some swings and misses, and even with a splitter in his arsenal he has trouble with left-handed batters. He's marginally better than a replacement-level right-handed reliever and not someone I'd give up a decent, if clearly faded, prospect to acquire.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Blue Monday

The Cubs figured to be one of the more active teams at the trade deadline. They failed to complete a Ryan Dempster trade last week when the right-hander refused to waive his 10-and-5 rights, but on Monday they got busy.



The Cubbies shipped a different starter to the Braves – left-hander Paul Maholm – along with extra outfielder Reed Johnson in exchange for right-handers Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman. Maholm gives the Braves a notable upgrade over Jair Jurrjens, who had already been demoted to the bullpen in favor of Kris Medlen. He’ll also give them some insurance in case Ben Sheets goes down with an injury. Johnson could see some starts against left-handed pitching, but hopefully not at the expense of Jason Heyward.



Chapman has a chance to be a decent middle reliever, but Vizcaino is a far more interesting get for the Cubs. He was a top-50 prospect coming into the season but underwent Tommy John surgery during spring training. Though he has a history of durability issues, he has the repertoire of a starter and will surely be given a shot to stick in that role.



The Cubs also made a smaller move, dealing Geovany Soto to the Rangers in exchange for minor league righty Jacob Brigham. Soto gives the Rangers better defense than Mike Napoli, allowing Napoli to play more at first base and designated hitter. Yorvit Torrealba has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.



Chicago might not be done, either, as they could still wind up dealing Dempster and/or Matt Garza, despite the fact that the latter is dealing with a triceps injury. The Reds and Blue Jays are interested in Garza, while the Cubs are still trying to work out a deal with the Dodgers involving Dempster.



Pirates Take A Shot on Snider



Travis Snider was supposed to be a star by now. The Pirates are hoping he just needed a little more time before finally blossoming.



Pittsburgh picked up the former top prospect Monday in exchange for right-hander Brad Lincoln. Snider has dealt with wrist issues this season but mashed at Triple-A Las Vegas when healthy, batting a blistering .335/.423/.598 with 13 homers and 56 RBI over 56 games. Of course, that’s nothing new for him, as he’s a career .333/.412/.565 hitter at the Triple-A level. Snider has been hit-or-miss during his stints with the Jays, though, batting just .247/.305/.429 over 914 plate appearances going into Monday’s game.



However, Snider is still just 24 years old, and has big raw power. It might not be the impact bat for this season that many Pirates fans wanted, but it’s probably the more sensible move. Lincoln is also a pretty interesting guy. He’s shown an uptick in velocity this season while making most of his appearances out of the bullpen, and the results have been impressive, as he’s posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 60/14 K/BB ratio over 59 1/3 innings. He’ll pitch in relief for now, though the Jays could give him a chance to start eventually.



Oh Boy, Roy



Roy Oswalt hadn’t pitched since July 17 due to a back issue before climbing atop the mound Monday for a showdown with the AL West rival Angels. The results in his first start back were, to put it kindly, less than desirable.



Oswalt surrendered eight runs on 11 hits over just 5 1/3 innings of work in the 15-8 blowout loss. It’s the third time in six starts for the Rangers that he’s given up at least that many hits, and he’s now allowed a whopping 54 over 34 2/3 innings for the year. His ERA sits at an ugly 6.49, and his WHIP is a just-as-unsightly 1.73.



The veteran right-hander’s velocity was fine Monday, and he didn’t appear to be favoring his back at all. It’s discouraging because he had seemed to take a big step forward in starts earlier this month against the A’s and Twins, but what happened against the Angels was obviously a big step backwards.



Colby Lewis (elbow) is done for the season, and Neftali Feliz (elbow) just recently had a setback during his rehab assignment. But, the Rangers are stretching Alexi Ogando out, and they haven’t ruled out acquiring a starter via trade. Oswalt’s standing in the rotation probably isn’t on steady ground at this point.







National League Quick Hits: The Dodgers acquired Brandon League from the Mariners in exchange for a couple minor leaguers. He’ll help set up for Kenley Jansen … Yasmani Grandal exited Monday’s game with a right oblique strain. He hasn’t been placed on the DL yet, but it should be inevitable. Nick Hundley is likely to be called up to share time with John Baker … John Axford on Monday recorded his first save since being demoted from the closer role. He was the third reliever in the ninth to come in, though, so it doesn’t mean he has his job back … Rafael Furcal (back) is expected to return to the lineup Tuesday after receiving treatment. He’s also dealt with shin issues recently … Johan Santana (ankle) is expected to throw off a mound Thursday. The Mets are hoping he can rejoin the rotation by August 8 or 9 … Shane Victorino is reportedly the Reds’ top target in their search for a leadoff hitter, but the asking price is high. They might have to settle for Juan Pierre … Carlos Zambrano has been demoted to the bullpen after posting a 7.62 ERA over his last nine starts. Wade LeBlanc takes his spot in the rotation … The Cardinals have discussed internally the idea of promoting top prospect Oscar Taveras. He would figure to see regular playing time in center field, pushing Jon Jay to a fourth outfielder role.



American League Quick Hits: Mark Teixeira had to leave Monday’s game with a left wrist injury. X-rays came back negative, but Teixeira still needs an MRI, which could be the more important exam … Kendrys Morales belted a pair of home runs and drove in six runs in the sixth inning of Monday’s win over the Rangers. He hasn’t hit for the pop fantasy owners hoped for this season, but perhaps this is the beginning of a power surge … Clay Buchholz gave up two runs over eight strong frames against the Tigers Monday. He’s given up two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts … The Orioles could be on the verge of a deal for Joe Blanton, as the Phillies have faxed over his medical records to Baltimore … Carl Pavano (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday. He’ll likely need at least 2-3 outings before rejoining the Twins’ rotation … Mark Trumbo didn’t play Monday due to upper back spasms. He’s considered day-to-day … Dan Haren is expected to be scratched from Wednesday’s start due to back stiffness. The Angels contend that it’s in a different area than the spot which landed him on the disabled list, and it doesn’t appear that a trip back to the DL will be needed at this point … Jim Thome will receive an MRI on his ailing neck on Tuesday. It’s possible a trip to the DL will be needed … The Mariners picked up outfielder Eric Thames from the Blue Jays in exchange for reliever Steve Delabar.​

 

[HacheMan]

Trade analysis: Dempster, Greinke ...

What do the peripheral stats show about fantasy SP options that changed teams?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

You can never trade too much pitching.


OK, so maybe that's not how the saying goes, but it sure seems like it this trade season. Six members of this week's top 100 starting pitching rankings have been traded in the past eight days. Let's review:

Ryan Dempster to Texas Rangers




Let's begin with the most recently moved starter, as the Rangers, after weeks of speculation he'd join either the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers, swooped in at the eleventh hour to win the Ryan Dempster sweepstakes. This could come as a disappointment to some fantasy owners; Dempster's owners probably preferred he move to one of those more pitching-friendly National League venues rather than the hitting-friendly Rangers Ballpark, while those owners in NL-only leagues who don't keep a player's stats when he changes leagues immediately lose him.
The ballpark factor is a significant one. Rangers Ballpark routinely tops our Park Factors page in terms of both runs scored and home runs; though it ranks seventh and 11th, respectively, in those categories this season, it was tops in the majors in both in 2011. Dempster, meanwhile, is a pitcher who doesn't generate a high rate of ground balls. His 43.5 percent rate ranks 32nd out of 101 qualified pitchers, and his 8.2 home run/fly ball percentage is 25th-lowest, meaning he's at somewhat greater risk of untimely homers and therefore poorer outings in Texas.
Dempster was due for some regression, sporting the majors' third-lowest qualified BABIP (.244) and second-highest left-on-base percentage (84.0), but at least increased win potential -- the Rangers average 5.00 runs per game, the Chicago Cubs 3.79 -- should somewhat offset that. There's a rocky schedule patch in his near future -- the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees are upcoming -- but he's still a top-30 capable starter and a prime AL-only pickup.
As an aside, Dempster's arrival will bump Roy Oswalt to the bullpen, while sidelined starter Neftali Feliz is out for the season, as well as for much of 2013, after it was determined he'll require Tommy John surgery.

Zack Greinke to Los Angeles Angels

Zack Greinke was the No. 1 starting pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2009, the No. 11 starter selected on average this preseason and a pitcher who, at various times this season, has been a top-10 name in the "60 Feet, 6 Inches" ranks. A sabermetric favorite, he leaves the more pitching-oriented National League for the more hitting-oriented American League, but in the process actually benefits in terms of fantasy appeal simply based upon his team situation.
During his tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers, Greinke's 2.78 FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching score, on an ERA scale) ranked third among qualified big league pitchers; only Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw had better. He also topped the list in xFIP (2.66), and his 0.88 differential between FIP and ERA was the fourth-largest of any qualifier. In other words, Greinke wasn't the most fortunate fella with the Brewers, which makes sense considering they rank 20th in Ultimate Zone Rating (-6.7) and 15th in Defensive Runs Saved (-2), per FanGraphs, this season.
The Angels, Greinke's new team, rank second in UZR (30.9) and sixth in Defensive Runs Saved (25), and there's little question their usual around-the-infield defense of Albert Pujols, Howard Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Alberto Callaspo trumps that of the Brewers' quartet of Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, Cesar Izturis and Aramis Ramirez. Accounting for only Defensive Runs Saved by those players at their respective positions this season, the Angels' four has a 46-run advantage (Angels 18, Brewers -28). That's significant for a pitcher such as Greinke, whose 54.2 percent ground ball rate in 2012 is 12th-highest among qualified pitchers.
In other words, Greinke, with a stronger supporting defense -- both infield and outfield -- might finally have an opportunity to narrow the gap between his ERA, which counts in fantasy, and FIP, which does not. The net result is a starting pitcher who should rank among the top 10 for the remainder of the year.

Wandy Rodriguez to Pittsburgh Pirates




The most obvious effect of Wandy Rodriguez's intradivision trade -- he went from the Houston Astros to the Pirates -- is better win potential. Among pitchers with at least 500 innings of a sub-3.50 ERA since the beginning of 2008, his .505 winning percentage (that's one win over .500) is second-worst (Hiroki Kuroda's is .490). How bizarre is it that a move to the Pirates presents a pitcher with a greater opportunity at wins?
It's the truth, but the other benefit for Rodriguez is the ballpark factor. PNC Park ranks as one of the game's best venues for pitchers; it ranks 28th in runs scored and 27th in home runs this season. Houston's Minute Maid Park, meanwhile, ranks 20th and 12th in those categories, albeit with more neutral numbers.
Whether the Pirates are for real or destined for a 2011-like late-season collapse remains to be seen, but they're certainly playing it out as if they're true contenders. Bump Rodriguez's value up a notch or two accordingly, as he might -- at least for the rest of this year -- exploit his surroundings for top-40 type starter value.

Anibal Sanchez to Detroit Tigers




Of the three NL-turned-AL starters, Sanchez is the least attractive one in fantasy. His interleague numbers underscore the risks of the league switch: He has a 5.00 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 13 career games (12 starts) during interleague play, and he has been more susceptible to home runs during those games, with a 1.30 homers-per-nine ratio compared to 0.78 against NL foes. (Special thanks to ESPN colleague Pierre Becquey for his help digging up Sanchez's stats.)
Sanchez's AL debut underscored that homer risk: He surrendered three in his six innings of work at Toronto, and a quick look at the schedule reveals future Tigers series against the Yankees, Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays and Angels. Sanchez isn't a ride-him-every-time type of starter with his new team, but he's still capable of helping when the matchup is right.

Francisco Liriano to Chicago White Sox

What, exactly, did the White Sox get when they traded for Liriano this past Saturday? Is he the pitcher who posted a 3.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 10.77 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 11 games since being restored to the Minnesota Twins' rotation, or is he the pitcher who was pounded for seven runs in two innings his last time out, plus has a 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP since the beginning of 2011?
Matchups had a lot to do with Liriano's recent resurgence, but at times he flashed the brilliant slider that once made him a fantasy stud. Here's the problem: You have no idea on any given night whether it'll be at peak levels. Here's the other problem: He had a 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in his career at Target Field, a pitching-friendly venue, but at U.S. Cellular Field he has 5.77 and 1.59 numbers in his career. And you can be sure that that's a big downgrade in ballparks, as far as pitching is concerned. Liriano can't afford to walk as many hitters as he has in recent years in Chicago, or he's going to be a huge risk in ERA/WHIP.
I'd stay away, as my rankings reflect, but Liriano always seems to lure fantasy owners back in. Maybe he'll string together a few promising outings, then you can sell high while the good-trade feelings are still warm.

Paul Maholm to Atlanta Braves




Perhaps the most under-the-radar move of these pitchers, but one who indeed warrants mention, Maholm has been one of the most-added players in fantasy in recent weeks. He has six consecutive starts of at least six innings pitched and zero or one run allowed, and in eight of his past nine starts he has posted a quality start. Now he's headed to the Braves, who not only provide him a greater chance to win each time, but also have a ballpark more suited for him.
Maholm's surprising season is largely the product of his having made substantial gains against right-handed hitters. After they managed an .821 OPS against him in his first six seasons, they have a .705 OPS against him since the beginning of 2011. Left-handed hitters, once confounded by him, have improved -- they have a .752 OPS in 2011-12 combined -- but at least that signifies Maholm bringing his splits more into balance. This is no longer your "start only against lefty-laden lineups" starter.
Maholm's mediocre strikeout rate, however, keeps him more in the matchups class, but he belongs at least in the discussion in 12-team mixed leagues or deeper.


TOP 100 STARTING PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 100 starting pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Verlander, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Kershaw, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Cain, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Hernandez, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Madison Bumgarner, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jered Weaver, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cole Hamels, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Price, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Zack Greinke, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> CC Sabathia, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cliff Lee, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gio Gonzalez, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Stephen Strasburg, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Wainwright, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johnny Cueto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> R.A. Dickey, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Roy Halladay, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> C.J. Wilson, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Sale, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hiroki Kuroda, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yovani Gallardo, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Johnson, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Garza, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mat Latos, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jake Peavy, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Vogelsong, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yu Darvish, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Dempster, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kennedy, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Max Scherzer, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Hudson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wade Miley, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Phil Hughes, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Doug Fister, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Moore, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Lynn, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Haren, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Lester, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Hanson, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Jackson, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Shields, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ivan Nova, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wandy Rodriguez, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Harrison, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jarrod Parker, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James McDonald, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vance Worley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Capuano, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anibal Sanchez, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Minor, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Sheets, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathon Niese, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Lincecum, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Burnett, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Fiers, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Johan Santana, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wei-Yin Chen, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Lohse, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Morrow, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Liriano, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Beckett, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Homer Bailey, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon McCarthy, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clay Buchholz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Hammel, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tommy Milone, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeff Samardzija, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Cahill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chad Billingsley, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Hellickson, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Holland, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Erik Bedard, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Romero, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Buehrle, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edinson Volquez, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> A.J. Griffin, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shaun Marcum, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bartolo Colon, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Marco Estrada, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Blanton, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andy Pettitte, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Felix Doubront, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Quintana, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bud Norris, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Maholm, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Masterson, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bronson Arroyo, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ricky Nolasco, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Diamond, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Harang, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ross Detwiler, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Hochevar, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Bauer, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Gavin Floyd, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ted Lilly, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Clayton Richard, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ervin Santana, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Villanueva, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Streamer's delight


Among streaming starter options -- something I define as single-start options in daily leagues among pitchers owned in 25 percent or less of ESPN leagues -- for the upcoming week, here are my picks by day:
Tuesday, July 31: Kris Medlen versus Miami Marlins
Wednesday, Aug. 1: Bronson Arroyo versus San Diego Padres
Thursday, Aug. 2: Barry Zito versus New York Mets
Friday, Aug. 3: Clayton Richard versus New York Mets
Saturday, Aug. 4: Mark Rogers at St. Louis Cardinals (what a bad day for streamers)
Sunday, Aug. 5: Freddy Garcia versus Seattle Mariners
Monday, Aug. 6: Chris Tillman versus Seattle Mariners
Past picks

Friday, July 20: Drew Pomeranz -- 3 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Saturday, July 21: Ben Sheets -- W, QS, 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Sunday, July 22: Joe Blanton -- QS, 8 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Monday, July 23: Mike Minor -- W, QS, 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Tuesday, July 24: Paul Maholm -- W, QS, 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
Wednesday, July 25: Homer Bailey -- QS, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 7 K
Thursday, July 26: Jake Westbrook -- W, QS, 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Friday, July 27: Carlos Zambrano -- 5 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K
Saturday, July 28: Barry Zito -- 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Sunday, July 29: Clayton Richard -- 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
Week's total: 10 GS, 4 W (40.0%), 6 QS (60.0%), 61 2/3 IP, 57 H, 26 ER, 17 BB, 50 K, 3.79 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Season total: 104 GS, 42 W (40.4%), 55 QS (52.9%), 626 2/3 IP, 605 H, 273 ER, 214 BB, 477 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Three up


Doug Fister, Tigers: He has four consecutive quality starts since the All-Star break, three of them on the road, but most impressive during that span has been his command of the strike zone. Fister has 31 strikeouts compared to five walks in 30 innings; he also has generated misses on 23 percent of hitters' swings against him during that span, a considerable improvement upon his 18 percent first-half number. Could it be that Fister is merely a pitcher who hits his groove deeper into the year than the average starter? Perhaps. After all, he made two separate trips to the disabled list due to an oblique strain earlier in the season, so it'd make sense that he might not have found a rhythm before now. Fister's curveball has been outstanding of late -- just as it was during his brilliant run for the Tigers the final two months of 2011 -- as opponents are batting just .083 and missing on 37 percent of swings against it. For the Tigers last year, those numbers were .188 and 41 percent. Fister's Tigers also have plenty of games left against the Cleveland Indians (9 more), Kansas City Royals (10) and Minnesota Twins (9), the three lowest-scoring teams in the American League Central. That's another plus.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks: Now where was this the first half of the season? Kennedy, who struggled to the tune of six wins and a 4.26 ERA before the All-Star break, now finds himself in a streak of three straight quality starts, during which time he has a 2.42 ERA and 23 K's compared to one walk in 22 1/3 innings. It is streaks like this that exemplify things such as regression and statistical fluctuation; his FIP this season is 3.78, and in 2011 it was a not-far-off 3.22. His ERA, however, is 4.20 this season and was 2.88 last. The smart projection assumes Kennedy performs like a pitcher somewhat in the middle of those two ERAs, but that's still a top-30 capable fantasy starter, and certainly one better than the one we saw in the first half.
Mike Minor, Braves: To think, he wasn't even promised a rotation spot at the onset of the season's second half. Minor has four straight quality starts of his own since the All-Star break, but perhaps most important, he has but four walks in 27 1/3 innings' work, never once issuing more than two passes in a single game. Remember, this is a pitcher who averaged 5.09 walks per nine innings, or a 12.2 percent walk rate going by total batters faced, in May and June combined, explaining some of his earlier struggles. At his peak, Minor should be capable of nearly a strikeout per inning, and his Braves have games versus the light-hitting Padres, Astros and Marlins remaining on their schedule. He'll probably frustrate you from time to time as he continues to adjust, but his rotation spot is suddenly looking more secure, and his upside is that of a top-50 starter.

Three down




Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians: He has earned himself a hearty place on the unofficial list of "most frustrating starting pitchers to own in fantasy baseball" thanks to his recent performance. In four starts since the All-Star break, Jimenez has allowed 18 runs on 27 hits, four of them home runs, in 20 1/3 innings, resulting in a 7.97 ERA and .321 batting average allowed. The most recent? It was a five-runs-in-6 1/3-innings stinker at Minnesota's Target Field, which you'd typically consider a favorable matchup. Jimenez might have recaptured some of his previously lost velocity -- he has averaged 93 mph or higher with his fastball in each of those four starts after averaging 92.0 mph with the pitch in April and May combined -- but he's still a far cry from his heyday with the Colorado Rockies, when he routinely touched 95. Jimenez no longer has the stuff to get left-handers out; they have .269/.378/.475 triple-slash rates against him this season, much better than their .191/.284/.297 numbers against him in 2010. That drops him to matchups status at best, and that Twins outing shows that even that is debatable.
Jon Lester, Red Sox: Forgive Lester his recent schedule if you wish -- two games against the Yankees, one apiece against the Blue Jays and White Sox -- but it has been a long time since he has done much to earn the trust of his fantasy owners. This is about more than just the 12.27 ERA, .377 BAA or seven home runs he has allowed in those past four starts; it's about his diminishing stuff. His cutter in particular hasn't been nearly as sharp this season as in the past, with opponents batting .296 against it since June 1, and the pitch itself is resulting in a .235 well-hit average by opponents (percentage of at-bats that ended in hard contact). In 2011, his cutter limited foes to a .225 batting average and .185 well-hit average, signaling that something more than the schedule is wrong.
James McDonald, Pirates: There are two valid questions about McDonald's recent struggles, and that's beyond simply, "Why does he stink, and should I cut him?" The first: Where did his control go? After walking only 7.3 percent of all hitters he faced before the All-Star break, his number in the category has ballooned to 17.8 percent, and 19 of his 50 walks for the season have come in the four starts he has made since the break. The second: Where did his slider go? McDonald, who threw a slider 19 percent of the time before the break and limited hitters to a .130 batting average against it while recording 34 of his 100 K's, has thrown the pitch only 10 percent of the time since, with opponents batting .429 against it with only one of his 15 K's. The McDonald we've seen in July looks a lot like the McDonald of 2011, a high-WHIP, volatile fantasy option, and if he cannot recapture his first-half magic -- which seems fairly far off now -- he'd indeed be a cut candidate.

 

[HacheMan]

Impact of Victorino, Pence trades

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Take a moment to absorb this fact: Philadelphia Phillies, trade deadline sellers.


Four short months ago, that would have been a shock-inducing line to put into print. A division champion in each of the past five seasons, National League champion on two occasions (2008 and '09) and World Series champion once (2008), the Phillies were again expected to be a front-runner in the National League East. Instead, at the moment the Tuesday trade deadline passed, the Phillies found themselves in dead last in the division, 16 games out of first, 12 games under .500 and fifth-worst among the 16 teams in the National League.

It's why they overhauled their outfield on Tuesday, trading two starters, center fielder Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers, then minutes later, right fielder Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants. Then, they recalled onetime top prospect Domonic Brown from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.


Suddenly, this offense, the NL's best and one of the majors' five best three seasons ago, appears in danger of sinking to the bottom third in the league in terms of runs scored and OPS. That's a problem for the remaining Phillies; useful fantasy players like Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard take a hit in those counting-number (runs, RBIs) categories. Although the perception might remain that this is an above-average offense, it in all likelihood is not; don't assume that even the Phillies' 18th-ranked 4.20 runs per game is a fair barometer.


Brown is the intriguing piece affected by the Phillies' moves. Called up Tuesday, he should get an extended look as the Phillies make their 2013 preparations, and his minor league performance shows he remains capable of contributing in the home run and stolen base categories. Improved plate discipline would help, and as a point in his favor, he had only 14 strikeouts in 87 at-bats in June and July combined for Lehigh Valley. At the bare minimum, he warrants a close watch in standard mixed leagues and an instant pickup in NL-only formats.


But this is all about the big names the Phillies traded away, right? Let's take a closer look at those.


Shane Victorino to Los Angeles Dodgers



Whereas the Phillies' offense might be on the decline, the Dodgers' offense has certainly improved in the past 10 days, thanks to not only Victorino's addition but also the previous acquisition of Hanley Ramirez from the Miami Marlins. Twenty-seven days ago, the Dodgers played a game in which Jerry Hairston Jr. batted third, Juan Rivera fourth and Luis Cruz fifth. Now, they'll likely trot out Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Ramirez in those spots, with Victorino in the leadoff spot.


Here's why that's a substantial benefit -- again impacting the team's counting numbers -- and again why you shouldn't cling to the year-to-date team stats: The Dodgers were shut out seven times in June, averaging 2.96 runs per game in the month. Since the All-Star break, however, they have failed to score fewer than two runs once, and they have averaged 4.47 runs per game. That's an obvious, huge plus for Kemp, Ethier and Ramirez. What you might not realize is how that'll benefit lesser fantasy names like Mark Ellis, A.J. Ellis, James Loney and, once he's healthy, Dee Gordon.


Victorino, mired in a disappointing season by his own standards, was already seemingly coming out of his funk before being dealt. He was a .357/.400/.589 hitter in 15 games since the All-Star break, stealing five bases and scoring 14 runs. As long as he sticks at leadoff -- or No. 2 in the order -- and the Dodgers can keep Kemp and Ethier healthy, Victorino might have it in him to restore his .280-hitting, 35-steal, 100-run fantasy potential, scaled down to remaining games, naturally. Moving from Citizens Bank Park to Dodger Stadium might sap some of his home run appeal, but Victorino was never known for big-time power. It's a good move for him and should restore him to the top 25 fantasy outfielders going forward.

Hunter Pence to San Francisco Giants



Pence, already a top-25 fantasy outfielder -- he was 24th on our Player Rater at the time of his trade -- should see negligible change to his fantasy value, his stock perhaps slipping by a few spots (to just outside the top 25) as a result of his change in ballparks. Citizens Bank Park, after all, ranks eighth in terms of home runs on our Park Factors page, compared to AT&T Park's No. 30 ranking this season. Pence's homer potential will suffer in the more spacious venue.


In his defense in the category, however, AT&T is closer to neutral for right-handed power than left-handed power, and nine of Pence's 17 homers this season have been pulled to left. We might be talking about, say, seven instead of 10 more.


Pence shouldn't be hurt in RBIs, however, considering the Giants still sport three valuable on-base artists who might all bat ahead of him: fellow recent acquisition Marco Scutaro, Melky Cabrera and Buster Posey. There's therefore little reason to downgrade Pence much in the rankings.


Here's a quick look at the fantasy value of other recently traded hitters:


Chris Johnson to Arizona Diamondbacks



After giving up on 2012 breakout third baseman Ryan Roberts, the Diamondbacks quickly decided they couldn't fall back upon their in-house candidates, instead opting to acquire Chris Johnson from the Houston Astros on the cheap. One of the more free-swinging players in the game, Johnson at least has boosted his walk rate this season to 6.2 percent, his highest rate in any season thus far in the majors.


Expect Johnson to be a streaky performer in batting average, his rest-of-year potential in the category probably closer to .260 than .280, but thanks to the promise of regular at-bats and the help of hitting-friendly Chase Field, he might come close to doubling his season-to-date homer total. He remains a useful asset in deeper mixed and NL-only leagues.


Casey McGehee to New York Yankees



Injuries to Yankees corner infielders Alex Rodriguez (lengthier absence) and Mark Teixeira (potentially briefer) make McGehee a natural addition for the team, granting him a short-term opportunity to start at either spot, then most likely settling into a platoon arrangement with Eric Chavez at third base.


If a platoon is McGehee's lot with the Yankees, it might be for the best in fantasy, even if it caps his value at 12-team AL-only leagues. He's a .250/.344/.463 hitter against left-handers this season, compared to .222/.275/.341 versus righties, so his owners shouldn't be terribly bothered by a few lost at-bats against his weaker side. He'll benefit from a move to hitting-friendly Yankee Stadium and the deep Yankees lineup, boosting his homer, RBI and runs scored potential on a per-plate-appearance basis, which will ease the sting somewhat from the loss in playing time.


Travis Snider, Gaby Sanchez to Pittsburgh Pirates




TOP 125 HITTERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 125 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Braun, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Cabrera, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Trout, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Albert Pujols, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew McCutchen, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Wright, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robinson Cano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Gonzalez, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Kemp, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hanley Ramirez, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Holliday, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Prince Fielder, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Kinsler, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Jones, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Hamilton, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Bautista, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Teixeira, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Curtis Granderson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edwin Encarnacion, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Beltre, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adrian Gonzalez, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Bourn, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Phillips, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Justin Upton, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Heyward, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jay Bruce, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joey Votto, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Starlin Castro, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Reyes, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shin-Soo Choo, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mark Trumbo, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Melky Cabrera, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Lawrie, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Austin Jackson, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Billy Butler, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Konerko, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Beltran, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Elvis Andrus, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Buster Posey, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Shane Victorino, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Mauer, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nelson Cruz, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Ortiz, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Hunter Pence, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jimmy Rollins, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Allen Craig, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dustin Pedroia, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Zobrist, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Paul Goldschmidt, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kipnis, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Martin Prado, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Colby Rasmus, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Gordon, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andre Ethier, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aramis Ramirez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Giancarlo Stanton, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Willingham, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Cuddyer, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Adam Dunn, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Corey Hart, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> B.J. Upton, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yadier Molina, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bryce Harper, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric Hosmer, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Moustakas, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Hill, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alex Rios, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Altuve, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Neil Walker, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Yoenis Cespedes, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brian McCann, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Kubel, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 76 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Derek Jeter, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 77 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Ruiz, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 78 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dan Uggla, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 79 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Michael Morse, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ben Revere, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Santana, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kevin Youkilis, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Freese, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 84 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Freddie Freeman, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 85 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Desmond Jennings, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 86 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Napoli, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 83 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alejandro De Aza, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 88 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Miguel Montero, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Angel Pagan, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 80 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 90 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pablo Sandoval, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 91 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Wieters, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 89 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ike Davis, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Anthony Rizzo, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 94 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Evan Longoria, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfonso Soriano, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 82 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Nick Swisher, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 87 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Utley, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 97 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Juan Pierre, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 92 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ichiro Suzuki, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 100 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ian Desmond, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 98 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 101 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Troy Tulowitzki, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 102 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pedro Alvarez, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 95 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 103 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Salvador Perez, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 99 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 104 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alexei Ramirez, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 105 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Torii Hunter, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Emilio Bonifacio, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 107 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Danny Espinosa, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carl Crawford, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 108 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 109 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Josh Reddick, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 93 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 110 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Dexter Fowler, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 96 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 111 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chase Headley, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 112 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Trevor Plouffe, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Cody Ross, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 114 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Coco Crisp, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Stubbs, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 116 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Howard, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 117 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Davis, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 115 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 118 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jesus Montero, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 119 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Young, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 120 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Will Middlebrooks, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 113 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 121 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Denard Span, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 122 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Joyce, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 123 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lance Berkman, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 106 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 124 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Quentin, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 125 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jayson Werth, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr></tbody></table>




The Pirates landed two useful bats in less than 24 hours on Tuesday, Snider early in the morning hours, Sanchez only hours before the deadline, the latter move necessitated by the team's trade of McGehee. In a sense, the Pirates' total trades represented a matter of shifting resources: They moved a reliever (Brad Lincoln) for Snider, a first baseman (McGehee) for another reliever (Chad Qualls) and an outfielder (Gorkys Hernandez) for Sanchez. Garrett Jones, meanwhile, shifts from right field to first base to likely comprise a straight platoon with Sanchez.


Snider is the catch here, and he batted second as the team's starting right fielder on Tuesday, roles he might retain the remainder of the year. The longtime top prospect for the Toronto Blue Jays received numerous chances but failed to realize his potential; a scorching .335/.423/.598 triple-slash line for Triple-A Las Vegas followed by .250/.300/.556 numbers in 10 games of a recent call-up by the Blue Jays shows that perhaps he might finally be figuring it out at age 24.


Whether that's a short-term hot spell -- it wouldn't be the first time that's been the case, if so -- or something more is unclear, but NL-only owners who hoarded FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) dollars or a top waiver position might regard him the premium catch of the trade deadline. After all, Snider's power potential was always advertised in the 25-30 range. He might bat .250 for his new team, play every day and hit 8-10 homers. Or … he might again be a total bust. But the chance that the result is the former is enough to make him worth a pickup.


Sanchez, meanwhile, was in the midst of a miserable season for the Marlins, but he managed .302/.431/.491 numbers in 34 games for Triple-A New Orleans. During that time he clobbered lefties -- he had .370/.455/.704 rates against them -- and his .298/.390/.488 lifetime rates against lefties in the majors show that he'd be a useful platoon partner. As the one on the lesser-used side, however, he'll be 12-team NL-only (or deeper) material, nothing more.


Geovany Soto to Texas Rangers



Why add only one disappointing fantasy catcher to your roster when, for a low, low price, you can add two? Soto joins the Rangers as Mike Napoli's new backup -- Yorvit Torrealba was subsequently designated for assignment -- but with a .199/.284/.347 triple-slash line and no promise of regular at-bats, he hardly looks like even AL-only waiver material. Soto's defense makes him a handy fit in Torrealba's old role, and perhaps his power might become more valuable at Rangers Ballpark. More likely, however, this is a trade that at least assures the Rangers a catcher for 2013, being that Soto's the one under team control for next season. If you're a Napoli owner in a keeper league, you should be more bothered, because this could be the first significant signal that he'll be with a different team next year.


Three up



Michael Morse, Washington Nationals: Now there is the Michael Morse we were expecting before he strained a back muscle that landed him on the disabled list to begin the season. During his past 30 games, he's a .360/.391/.568 hitter with seven home runs and 25 RBIs, which project as even greater than those during his breakout 2011. Considering his lengthy absence -- his first game of 2012 was on June 2 -- it's understandable that it took Morse this long. His issues upon his activation were discussed in the June 20 "Hit Parade," at which time I wrote that he is "an aggressive hitter … fresh off the DL who has yet to fully adjust." The stat quoted at the time was that he had swung at the first pitch in the count only 32 percent of the time; since that date he has swung at it 39 percent of the time, closer to his previous norms, and batted .500 (9-for-18) with one home run. It certainly appears that the old Morse is back.


Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers: His was a welcome trade in fantasy, and it's even more so now following the Dodgers' acquisition of top-of-the-order hitter Shane Victorino. Ramirez is a .280/.357/.520 hitter in his first six Dodgers games and has two stolen bases, looking a lot more like the five-category fantasy stud than the model we saw back in Miami. As the Dodgers' No. 5 hitter, RBI chances should be abundant, as he's now with an offense that represents a substantial upgrade upon that of the Marlins, who have averaged a major league-worst 3.70 runs per game this season. A top-10 finish overall might be in order.


Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals: As with teammate Morse, Zimmerman was profiled in that same June 20 "Hit Parade," and at the time it seemed as though a disabled list stint might be the perfect tonic for what ailed him. It turns out that a cortisone shot was a better choice; since he received one on June 24, he is a .361/.422/.722 hitter with 12 home runs and 33 RBIs in 32 games. What's more, that's not a luck-driven hot streak, not by a long shot. Revert to that June 20 column and look at the specific areas of the strike zone that ailed him: Since June 24, he is a .273 hitter with a 25 percent miss rate on swings against hard stuff "up and in," vastly improved from his .158 and 30 percent before that date; he is also a .222 hitter with a 38 percent miss rate on off-speed stuff "down and away" since June 24, compared to .135 and 41 percent before it.


Three down



Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals: Both production and playing time have proven issues for Berkman since his return from a knee injury on July 14. He has started eight of 15 Cardinals games during that time and batted .207 with a .379 slugging percentage, his six walks in 36 plate appearances (16.7 percent rate) the only real plus in his game. Whether this is Berkman merely needing to recapture his timing or his 36 years of age coming back to haunt him is unclear, but even if it's the former, the lack of everyday at-bats might only lengthen his cold spell. He's unlikely to come close to his 2011 level of production the rest of the season.


Tyler Colvin, Colorado Rockies: Kudos to the Rockies for recognizing Colvin's contributions the first half of the season and granting him an opportunity to play every day, starting him in 13 of their first 14 games in the month of July. Shame on Colvin for falling flat on his face when presented with said opportunity; he is a .128 hitter with 16 strikeouts and only one extra-base hit, a double, in 39 at-bats in 12 games since the All-Star break. The strikeouts demonstrate that he's falling back into old habits, and that eight of those games came at Coors Field is damning of his future prospects. The Rockies have benched him in three of their past nine games accordingly, and that's an arrangement that might stick.


Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: The trade deadline came and went, and while Soriano's bloated contract -- he's still owed $18 million in each of the next two seasons, as well as the prorated remainder of his $18 million salary for 2012 -- makes him a lock to clear waivers, that he has yet to be traded makes it likely he'll remain with the Cubs for a significant remainder of the season. Why that's a problem: This Cubs team has been gutted to the point where it's a real threat to finish among the five lowest-scoring teams in baseball the remainder of the year, hurting Soriano's runs/RBI potential. But even if he's traded by, say, Aug. 15, who's to say that new surroundings would mean a rise in fantasy value? Soriano has thrived at Wrigley Field this season, with .294/.347/.525 triple-slash rates there, and there's a good chance that wherever he winds up, he'll not only have to deal with less hitter-friendly confines, but perhaps also a little less playing time.


New position eligibility



The following players have become eligible at new positions -- it's 10 games to qualify at a new spot -- in ESPN standard leagues during the past week: Willie Bloomquist (3B), Danny Espinosa (SS), Todd Frazier (1B), Scott Moore (1B), Jordany Valdespin (OF).


Nearing new position eligibility



The following players are on track to earn new eligibility in the coming weeks: Alexi Amarista (9 games played at SS), Robert Andino (8 games played at 3B), Miguel Cairo (9 games played at 1B), Ronny Cedeno (9 games played at 2B), Pedro Ciriaco (9 games played at 2B), Steve Clevenger (9 games played at 1B), Brooks Conrad (9 games played at 3B), Jason Donald (8 games played at SS), Yan Gomes (8 games played at 1B), Josh Harrison (8 games played at 2B), Elliot Johnson (9 games played at 2B), Munenori Kawasaki (8 games played at 2B), Scott Moore (9 games played at 3B), Donovan Solano (8 games played at OF), Mark Trumbo (8 games played at 3B), Justin Turner (8 games played at SS), Omar Vizquel (9 games played at SS) and Michael Young (8 games played at 2B).

 

[HacheMan]

Medlen Bedlam
Few things in sports -- no, few things in life -- compare to Major League Baseball’s July 31 trade deadline. And the advent of Twitter, blogs and immediate information-sharing has made it even more of a wild ride.

The @Rotoworld_BB crew pumped out over 200 player news blurbs throughout the day Tuesday, many of which contained pinches of fantasy advice. But let’s offer a quick of review of the more fantasy-relevant deadline transactions here in Wednesday’s Daily Dose for readers who couldn’t follow a pace so brisk:

The Giants acquired outfielder Hunter Pence from the Astros. And will start him in right field. San Francisco’s offense isn’t much better than Philly’s and AT&T Park can be a tough place to hit, but perhaps the change of scenery will kick Pence into gear. The owner of an .823 career OPS, he was batting just .271 with a .784 OPS in 101 games for the Phillies.

The Reds landed reliever Jonathan Broxton from the Royals. It’s a trade that kills Broxton’s fantasy value because he’s not going to leapfrog Aroldis Chapman for save opportunities in Cincy, but it does leave an opening back in Kansas City. And Greg Holland has the type of dominant stuff that could give him significant fantasy value down the stretch.

The Rangers got right-handed starter Ryan Dempster from the Cubs. It would be foolish to expect the veteran’s 2.25 ERA to improve or even hold firm, but his potential for wins does skyrocket and that sort of thing is big in standard fantasy leagues. Dempster had a cool 1.04 WHIP and 83/27 K/BB ratio in his 104 innings this season with Chicago.

The Pirates took a chance on first baseman Gaby Sanchez, acquiring him from Miami. The trade should at least get Sanchez back into a major league uniform. He was batting .302/.431/.491 with five home runs and 18 RBI in 34 games for the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate in New Orleans and is capable of earning a good chunk of playing time in Pittsburgh.



Liriano Appears Refreshed In White Sox Debut

White Sox pitching Don Cooper told reporters a few days after the White Sox acquired Francisco Liriano from the Twins that he had already identified some changes that the left-hander could make to improve his performance. And Cooper apparently wasn’t blowing steam.

Liriano looked sharp in his debut with the Pale Hose on Tuesday night at Minnesota’s Target Field, allowing just two runs on four hits over six innings in a 4-3 defeat of his former team. He fanned eight and threw a season-high 113 pitches without showing any signs of fatigue.

Liriano displayed flashes of dominance earlier this season with the Twins and has now racked up 117 strikeouts in 106 innings this year. He has the goods to be a force down the stretch for Chicago and is worth adding again in standard mixed fantasy leagues.



Atlanta’s Medlen Shines In First Start Of Season

The Braves weren’t able to land a starter at the deadline, so they turned inward in an effort to find a fix for their starting rotation woes. As it turns out, they should have been looking there the whole time.

Kris Medlen, who has operated as a reliever since the 2010 campaign, finally got a chance to prove his worthiness for a rotation spot on Tuesday night against the Marlins and did not disappoint. The 26-year-old right-hander yielded just one run on four hits as the Braves cruised to a 7-1 victory. He struck out three, walked one and needed only 57 pitches to get through his five impressive frames.

Medlen is sure to get another opportunity this weekend and could soon become a long-term option in Atlanta's rotation mix. Pick him up in fantasy leagues before he gets too popular.



National League Quick Hits: Pirates right-hander A.J. Burnett carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning Tuesday against the Cubs … Brandon Phillips admitted to reporters late Tuesday night that his left calf strain will keep him out “a while” … Tim Lincecum held the Mets to one run in seven innings Tuesday, earning his fifth victory … Cardinals left-hander Jaime Garcia (shoulder) will make his second rehab start Saturday at Double-A Springfield … Cliff Lee collected his second win of the season Tuesday after throwing seven scoreless innings against the Nationals … The Cubs are expected to place Matt Garza on the disabled list because of a lingering triceps injury … Astros closer Wilton Lopez is day-to-day with tightness in his right elbow … Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche, both dealing with back injuries, are expected to return to the Nationals’ starting lineup on Wednesday … Dexter Fowler was scratched Tuesday against the Cardinals due to a flu-like illness … Reds outfielder Ryan Ludwick is suddenly on pace for 28 home runs and 82 RBI … Aubrey Huff was placed on the disabled list with a right knee strain … Rafael Furcal remains day-to-day with a sore back … Domonic Brown was called up by the Phillies on Tuesday and should get everyday playing time down the stretch … The Padres placed Yasmani Grandal on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right oblique … Matt Harvey took his first loss Tuesday despite allowing only two earned runs over six innings against the Giants … Tommy Hanson landed on the disabled list Tuesday with a lower back strain.

American League Quick Hits: Angels first baseman Albert Pujols launched a pair of solo home runs on Tuesday night against the Rangers and is now on pace for 31 dingers and 104 RBI … Miguel Cabrera drew a bases-loaded walk on Tuesday against the Red Sox, lifting his RBI total to 85 … Evan Longoria (hamstring) suffered a minor setback on his rehab assignment and is no longer expected to return from the disabled list Friday … The Yankees activated Joba Chamberlain from the 60-day disabled list after a nearly 14-month absence … Jered Weaver collected his league-leading 14th win Tuesday in the Angels’ defeat of the Rangers … White Sox left-hander John Danks will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery on Monday … Justin Verlander yielded four runs in five innings Tuesday in a rain-shortened loss to Boston … Neftali Feliz is scheduled to undergo Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery on Wednesday … The Royals have identified Greg Holland as their new closer … Ryan Dempster is scheduled to make his debut for the Rangers on Thursday against Texas … Still with the Rays, right-hander James Shields tossed a three-hit shutout, striking out 11, Tuesday against the A’s … Josh Beckett made an early exit from his start Tuesday against the Tigers due to lower back spasms … Ryan Sweeney had surgery Tuesday to repair a broken knuckle and is likely done for the season … The Orioles placed Jim Thome on the disabled list with a herniated disk.

 

[HacheMan]

Mellow Deadline, Raucous Pens Some might call this past trade deadline a boring one. Only the two closers most likely to be traded were sent packing, and most of the fantasy opportunity lies in the Philadelphia outfield. One of the players sent packing had already been traded at the deadline before! Maybe it wasn't the craziest, zaniest deadline ever.

On the other hand, if your team bought a player, you're probably excited. And you might know that it can get worse in the future. With wild cards now worse than half a division champs playing card -- they get a game, not a series, and their chances of making the world series is half what what a wild card winner had last year -- teams may find themselves standing pat more often in the future.

So for now, enjoy what the trade deadline looks like. And in honor of this deadline just passed, we'll use the biggest trades completed on Tuesday to name the tiers. The more fantasy implications the deal has, the higher it ranks. Because this is a fantasy column.

Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "Jonathan Broxton to the Reds" Tier.)

Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

It's the classic trade deadline deal -- over-rated closer gets nabbed by a team with a great closer. That kills one closer and a new one sprouts up behind it. A really good one in this case.

Strikeouts are up across baseball. Like up higher than they've ever been. And relievers are striking out more batters than starters, as they always have. Consequence? The average strikeout rate for the top 30 pitchers in saves this year is over 10 per nine. It's over 10 per nine! So, in order to give value in strikeouts, your closer has to have a strikeout rate like these guys have. In fact, it's these guys that are skewing the numbers with their ridiculous strikeout rates. It's too late in the season to go get one of these guys without paying retail, and they might only help you catch up around 10 strikeouts (versus an average closer) in that category now that we've played 2/3 of the season. On the other hand, if you have one of these guys, I bet you're doing well in strikeouts.

And remember, before you get too upset about how the Phillies did during the trade deadline, wins don't necessarily get you saves. A good offense and a decent bullpen are the things most associated with save opportunities, and the Phillies never had one of those things anyway.

Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Hunter Pence to the Giants" Tier.)

Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays

Hunter Pence might take a slight ding moving to AT&T park, but it's not as bad as you might think. It's lefty home run power that is suppressed in San Francisco -- righty home run power is only 4% worse than league average there. So Pence won't hurt too bad. he leaves behind him opportunity for a player that was once the best prospect in baseball. Dominic Brown. Brown was once projected by Bill James to go 30/30 -- his speed has since declined a little, and his power looks less exciting than that, but those tools are still there. Brown is one of the better upside waiver pickups of the deadline.

Ernesto Frieri is fine. He hit a little stretch where he was walking guys -- six in his last ten appearances and that one big bad blown save on July 15th -- but he's found the zone recently. He's even better than fine now that Scott downs is hurt and there's no doubt who will get the next save, even if lefties are involved.

We didn't think anyone in this tier would get traded, and they didn't. Rafael Betancourt had some nibbles, but he's under a team-friendly contract into next season, and his team could still use a closer next year, too. He wasn't overpaid, and he's not over-rated. Jason Motte and Rafael Soriano drop a slot or two each now that we know they have below-average strikeout ability (!).

Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Shane Victorino to the Dodgers" Tier.)

Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Huston Street, San Diego Padres

Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles

Take the Hunter Pence paragraph and just shave a couple inches off the top. With the new haircut you get an okay player in an okay situation in Los Angeles -- Victorino definitely takes a little bit of a hit -- and a less exciting player behind him. John Mayberry Jr is probably taking over center field, but he probably doesn't have value in a standard mixed league. The pitchers going to Philadeplphia have uncertain and far-off futures. It's a trade, period.

Chris Perez and Huston Street survived! If either of them got the strikeouts of an average closer, they'd be ranked higher, but they're very decent pitchers. They could move up if the budge those rates higher, especially now that they aren't a risk to be moved by their own teams.

We're going to graduate Tyler Clippard because he has the strikeout rate of an above-average closer, a decent enough walk rate, and has survived a bad stretch (two blown saves between the 17th and 20th). But we're also going to graduate Clippard because Storen has been back for a handful of appearances and he hasn't blown the doors down. Storen's velocity is down two ticks and his swinging strike rate is down a little too. At this point, it would take an extended slump for Clippard to bring Storen back into the role.

Addison Reed hasn't quite had the crazy strikeout rates he showed in the minor leagues. He's been hovering around one per inning all year. He did bring the good control with him, though, and he still has given his teams ten more strikeouts than teams have gotten from Jim Johnson. And going forward, he's just as likely to get as many save opportunities as Johnson, given their teams' respective scoring punch and bullpens.

Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Travis Snider to the Pirates" Tier.)

Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics

Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays

Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

This trade is actually the most interesting of the deadline, in some ways. The initial response was that Jays' GM Alex Anthopolous just made his first bad trade. Closer inspection just reveals questions all the way around. It seems that a detailed examination of Travis Snider in Pittsburgh doesn't even eliminate the questions -- number one is, can Snider cut the strikeouts while maintaining the power? His history makes no definitive arguments either way, but he's still young and there's still a chance he goes on a power tear the rest of the way. He leaves an opening for another strikeout king -- Anthony Gose -- in Toronto, but since he's even less seasoned and doesn't have much power, it's hard to get behind either guy right now in fantasy unless you're in a deep league.

It's not hard to get behind the newest closer on this list, Greg Holland. Dude can pitch. He's got a strikeout rate over 12 per nine, a great ground-ball rate, and, with his split-finger, three pitches that should keep him from having any platoon issues. Of course, he does have control issues right now, and he's had them before. He might be a Marmolian closer. But he'll get you strikeouts, and we're talking young Carlos Marmol here. Not the recent version. If he could get strike one over the plate more (he's more than 10% below the league average, and that stat is the best single zone stat for predicting walk rate), he could even improve in that area.

Jeremy Affeldt got the save in San Francisco Tuesday night. That's mildly concerning, and then Bruce Bochy didn't say a thing about his closing situation after the game and that's slightly more concerning. He hasn't given Santiago Casilla a vote of confidence recently, either, so it's okay to be concerned. Casilla looks fine, though, and the team did not trade for a closer. Even with Sergio Romo still in that pen, and Jeremy Affeldt getting the save in San Francisco Tuesday night, Casilla is probably fine.

Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.<!--RW-->

Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Ryan Dempster to the Rangers" Tier.)

Jared Burton (first chair), Glen Perkins (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Carlos Marmol (first chair), Shawn Camp (second chair), Chicago Cubs
Steve Cishek (first chair), Heath Bell (second chair), Mike Dunn (third chair), Miami Marlins

John Axford (first chair), Francisco Rodriguez (second chair), Milwaukee Brewers

Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Bobby Parnell (first chair), Josh Edgin (second chair), Jon Rauch (third chair), New York Mets

Now Dempster is a pretty good player. But in Texas, against American League lineups, he's going to have some trouble. Look at Roy Oswalt, who went from credible to kaput there just this year. And there's nobody coming up behind him in his wake, no real exciting pitcher coming up for the Cubs. It's just one of those trades that takes away without giving back. Some of these closers might actually function this way -- Carlos Marmol might be below replacement, and only hurting your team. How badly do you want those saves?

With Steve Cishek and Jared Burton, we're just stuck waiting for their next save opportunity. Their teams are having trouble scoring and don't have great bullpens from top to bottom -- the Twins one is pretty good but not great -- so they aren't getting a ton of opportunities. There's an uncertain future for each. But they're worth rostering unless Greg Holland is still out there.

John Axford should get better. He'd been better since he was moved from the closer's role (five strikeouts and one walk in 6 1/3 innings), so his manager said he'd ease him back into the role. His first try back was disastrous, to the point where fans were wondering if he could get two blown saves for his five-out meltdown. Then he got back in the saddle the next night and finished out a game. If he's on your wire, he shouldn't be, and Francisco Rodriguez, who isn't what he used to be, is droppable.

So we told you last week that Francisco Cordero wouldn't last, and then he went out and blew up, in a bad way. Now he's talking of retiring and the manager has announced that Wilton Lopez has the job. Except that Wilton Lopez has elbow tightness and has had UCL trouble in the past. If they don't shut down Lopez for Tommy John surgery, he'll make for a bottom-tier closer in the Brandon League vein. He'll strike out about three per nine less than a regular closer and that'll cost you just under ten strikeouts the rest of the way versus an average closer. He'll make it work.

Bobby Parnell, or Captain Fastball, can't hump his fastball up to triple digits until about the second or third batter he faces. Maybe he needs some sort of exaggerated warmup routine? It won't matter long, hopefully. Frank Francisco keeps getting nearer to Queens, even with the latest setback. Josh Edgin came up in the last manager's meeting with Terry Collins and he was non-committal. He did like Edgin's work and thought he could send him out there in a high-leverage situation, but he stopped short of calling Edgin the interim closer for now.​

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

Injured

Frank Francisco (oblique), New York Mets
Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins

Frank Francisco will appear in a couple rehab appearances over the next week and should be in the bigs soon. Andrew Bailey begins his rehab assignment, and it might be a longer one. There's an uncertain role at the end of it, too. But they traded Josh Reddick for him, and they may want to see if he can be their closer in 2013. Sergio Santos is still out for the year, and Matt Capps might follow him down the rabbit hole soon.

The Deposed

Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Brian Fuentes, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals

Broxton's swinging strike rates told us this was coming a long time ago. Not quite the Brox Ox he used to be.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *​

The Steals Department

Starling Marte is the hot new toy in Pittsburgh, and since he hit a home run and stole a base in his first week, he's probably being picked up on your waiver wires currently. It's not all rosy with Marte, though. Though he stole 45 bases in Double- and Triple-A combined since the start of the 2011 season, he's also been caught 24 times. That sort of success rate does not usually give a speedster the green light. And though he hit 24 home runs in those 1003 combined plate appearances, he only hit five in the over 500 plate appearances that came before those. His home run power in the majors is a… major question mark. He also doesn't walk, like ever, so he won't be padding his stolen bases after walks. So Marte is interesting, but don't drop an established player for him. He'll probably only hit a couple more home runs and steal a handful of bags.

The Phillies outfield, on the other hand, has a flavor for a league of any size. Shallow mixed? You'll still get some use out Juan Pierre if you sit him against lefties. Deeper mixed league? Domonic Brown was once projected to go 30/30 by Bill James. He doesn't have that kind of speed anymore -- he's probably more like a 15/20 bag thief over a full season -- and the shine has come off his power, too. But if you need someone that could hit .280 and give you a handful of power and speed -- basically Marte-type stats -- Brown will be there for you. Deeper still? John Mayberry Jr strikes out too much, and doesn't really steal bags, but he'll be available and has some thump. He's probably the new center fielder. And, depending on how the playing time shakes out, you can't forget about Nate Schierholtz. He's going from a terrible park for lefty power and into one that loves lefties. He could steal a couple along with a decent batting average and some power. They traded away all their outfielders, so you know there's an opportunity here for someone to step forward. Of course, if steals and steals alone are your wish, you might look in the Toronto outfield -- Anthony Gose looks like he might be starting most days now that Travis Snider is gone, and Gose stole 78 bases across two levels last season. He's a Burner with a capital B.

 

[HacheMan]

Trout's Really Unbelievable Mastery?

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The headline really says it all. That's not true. Or maybe it is. I don't write the headlines, so as I write this I don't know what the title will or will not say.

I am guessing the word "TRUM" will appear somewhere in it, and while that is not terribly descriptive, what TRUM stands for -- Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless information and Musings -- really is. This is my old blog format, the one I did back in the day for my TalentedMrRoto.com site. Posted and emailed every single night, it very well may have been the first-ever fantasy blog. Or not. I have no idea.


Just like I have no idea what I am going to write whenever I start one of these. It's a loose, semi-coherent brain dump that is, like many things I do, more popular that it should be. I always get positive feedback when I do it and I enjoy doing it, so just like last season I am bringing it back for my final baseball column this year.


That's right. Final. There are only so many hours in the day, and with my job requiring preseason football analysis in addition to on-going baseball, some things have to give. I will still be doing the baseball podcast five mornings a week and the two weekly digital video shows I do (Fantasy Focus and Next Level Matchup), but for weekly baseball articles, this is it.


So ... after missing the first month of the season, Mike Trout is now the No. 1 overall player on our Player Rater. Think about that. Guy missed a month (first game was April 28), is 20 years old and, according to our Player Rater, which takes into account only numbers as compared to everyone else's, is the best player in fantasy.


If this keeps up, this has to be the best rookie season in the history of professional sports, doesn't it? What rookie year tops this? If I had to do rankings for next year, Trout would clearly be a top-10 guy. I just wonder how high up on that list he'll end up. One reason I wanted to bring up Trout is something that the SWAN, Zach Jones, sent me and Nate.


Zach brought up a very good point: Because they were promoted at the same time, with a lot of hype and both are very young, Bryce Harper and Trout get lumped in together. And that's unfortunate, because Harper is having a really nice year. And no one is noticing just how impressive it is. Remember, Trout got 123 at-bats last season. Which isn't a ton, but it's something. Look how his season last year, at 19, compares to Harper's 19-year-old season this year:


Mike Trout versus Bryce Harper -- age-19 season

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> Trout </th><th> Harper </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Games </td><td> 40 </td><td> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> BA </td><td> .220 </td><td> .258 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> OPS </td><td> .672 </td><td> .759 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K-BB </td><td> 30-9 </td><td> 71-36 </td></tr></tbody></table>





Trout's insane level of Troutness, which is a new word I just invented to describe how all-powerful and amazing something is. Like, here, I'll use it in a sentence. "I'm in love with her, dude. She's total Troutness." It can be used in many ways and variations. "Just aced my exam. I'm Trout!" "Have you seen 'The Avengers?' Holy Trout!" "This is the best Trouting pizza I've ever had."


The possibilities are limitless. Anyway, Trout's level of Troutness has obscured the fact Harper is having one of the Troutiest seasons ever for a 19-year-old in the history of Major League Baseball.


Highest OPS in age-19 season
Since 1920, min. 400 plate appearances



Mel Ott: .921 (1928) Tony Conigliaro: .883 (1964) Bryce Harper: .761 (2012)<< Edgar Renteria: .757 (1996) Ken Griffey Jr.: .748 (1989)
<< Currently has 360 plate appearances


Watch out for Harper next year, kids.


As long as we're in the Zach portion of our TRUM, Zach also sent this note: "I was just shocked to discover that Ryan Ludwick now has 19 home runs (including one Wednesday night!)"


I thought that was a good point. I know he has been hot lately, but his may very well be the quietest 19 home runs this year. So I started wondering: What other surprising stats might there be? My quick search starts now.


Would not have guessed 20 home runs for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Or that Miguel Montero is tied for 21st in RBIs with 64. Jason Kubel, tied for 14th in home runs and eighth in RBIs, is hitting .287 while tied for 11th in strikeouts.


If you haven't seen the new Batman movie, skip this part, because there is a semi-spoiler. I've seen it and I have a few reactions:

1. Bane is one of the all-time great villains. Well done.
2. Everyone who ever doubted me about Anne Hathaway owes me an apology.
3. For a superhero movie, Batman sure doesn't spend a lot of time being super, you know?


Speaking of movies, in my 100 Facts You Need to Know football column, I mentioned that I thought "Superman 2" was the only sequel better than the original. Many people argued with me about other sequels and many were wrong. But there were two that I think they are correct on. "Terminator 2" is better than the first, and "The Dark Knight" (the one with Heath Ledger as The Joker) is better than "Batman Begins," which I also admit. I'm a sucker for "here's how it all happened backstories," so it's close for me, but thinking about it again, and yeah, "The Dark Knight" is better.


Scrolling through the box scores, Chase Headley with three RBIs. Currently 12th on our Player Rater among third basemen, he's basically on pace for a 20/20 and 80/80 season. ... You ever look at a team that's crushing in your league and, as you scroll the list of names, you're like, "How the hell is this team winning?" I sort of feel that way with the Yankees. I get Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson and they've had injuries ... but ... Andruw Jones, Russell Martin, Jayson Nix and Casey McGehee all played for the Yankees Wednesday night. They won 12-3. Ugh ... Ben Revere stole base No. 25 Wednesday. He is hitting .319. He is available in 70 percent of leagues. America, why do you hate Ben Revere? His great-great-great uncle once rode to tell us the British were coming. (Oh, yeah, that's another quality of the TRUM. I don't bother worrying about overrated things like "accuracy.")


You know how you've been dating a woman for a long time, then you guys break up and suddenly she loses weight, changes up her hair, new outfit, totally babes up and you run into the "new" her somewhere and you're all like "Damn!" and a little bit jealous?


I can only assume that's exactly how anyone who used to own Jake Peavy feels. ... If it wasn't obvious before, it should be now. Mike Fiers is above the Wandy Line. ... Another home run Thursday night: Don't look now, kids, but over the past 30 days, Rickie Weeks has been the fourth-best second baseman in baseball, per our Player Rater, and he hit a very respectable .272 in July. ... That's actually a very encouraging start for Wade LeBlanc as he joins the Marlins rotation. Always liked him, he goes 4 1/3 innings, one earned run, strikes out three, walks one, five hits. Meanwhile, Ben Sheets, fantasy zombie.
Moving over to the Cubs' box score, I'm in a 12-team, NL only, 4x4 dynasty league. "The Fat Dogs," I've written about them before and mentioned them on the podcast before, are currently in first in this league, but it's very close and pitching will decide things as offense is pretty much all settled. I just lost Zack Grienke and Anibal Sanchez in this league (if a guy gets traded to the AL, you lose him, period). And who do I have in my bullpen? Shawn Camp. Zero outs, seven hits, five earned runs. Thanks, Shawn Camp. I hate you. Is there any worse sinking feeling than when you see something like that? A reliever who is supposed to help (and in this case -- 25-man NL only, 10 pitcher slots -- maybe I luck into some saves) ... and he does that to you? Arghhhhh.


Here's the top annoying things a reliever can do, in reverse order of how heartwrenching.


1. Middle reliever just gets lit up.
2. Closer brought into a non-save situation ... and gets lit up.
3. Reliever kills win for your starting pitcher.
4. Reliever kills win for your pitcher, gets a vulture win himself and is owned by the guy you are playing that week.


I asked the gang over at Elias Sports Bureau to look up the starting pitchers who had been let down by their bullpens the most this season; they left with the lead, were in line to get the win and then their bullpen blew the win for them. The list -- compiled before Wednesday night's games -- was a little surprising.

Randy Wolf, 8
Jon Lester, 5
Kyle Lohse, 4
Joe Saunders, 4
Homer Bailey, 4
Matt Cain, 4
Carlos Zambrano, 4
Jarrod Parker, 4
Marco Estrada, 4
Cole De Vries, 4


Eight potential wins for Randy Wolf? Eight!!! Brewers fans, how angry are you guys at your bullpen? Be honest. A lot, right? And it's not enough that Jon Lester has been terrible (for him). If he had gotten five more wins, you could have at least lived with it a little bit.


Back to box scores. Juan Pierre steals two bags. Available in about 80 percent of leagues, I expect him to play a lot more for Philadelphia with Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence gone. He didn't start Wednesday night, but still, if you need speed, Juan Pierre, kids. ... And Greg Holland, 1-for-1 in save chances this year. Great strikeout rate, terrible walk rate. Wide range of possible outcomes here. ... I seem to remember saying in the preseason that Yu Darvish was a guy you should grab then sell about halfway through the season. He had a 3.59 ERA pre-All-Star break and now a 7.66 since. Just saying. ... Pirates wasting no time: Gaby Sanchez, yes, Gaby Sanchez hit cleanup for the Pirates Wednesday night for a few at-bats.


I really enjoy the TRUM. I may do more it next year. Maybe I'll do it all the time. Or not at all. Who knows? My next baseball column is a long way off, but you're in great hands with Tristan H. Cockcroft and the rest of the gang here. And again, I'll still be doing the podcast and video the rest of the season, but football calls and football is the Trout, so writing football I shall.
In the meantime, thank you for taking the time to read, follow, listen, comment and give me plenty to think about. I'm very lucky and I am well-aware of it.

 

[HacheMan]

Broxton latest closer to lose value

Trade to Cincinnati Reds makes him droppable in most fantasy formats

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Saves today, gone tomorrow.


It is the nightmare fantasy owners of well-paid closers face come trade deadline time: An untimely trade can, in an instant, render your pitcher worthless.

That is the nature of the save. It is a statistic that can be recorded by only one man in any given game, one on the winning team, one whom the manager deemed worthy enough to be the last man to toe the hill. Simply put, if either your reliever's team loses, or his manager doesn't pick him to close, he's not giving you a save.


It is also one-fifth of your scoring in a standard rotisserie league.


This is why the past two weeks have been so maddening, as two of the better performers in the save category suffered an instant drop in value as a direct result of trades. Brett Myers, who at the time of his July 21 trade ranked 12th in the majors in saves (19), was dealt by the Houston Astros to the Chicago White Sox, and Jonathan Broxton, who ranked eighth in saves (23) when he was dealt July 31, was traded by the Kansas City Royals to the Cincinnati Reds.


Combined, Myers and Broxton total the third-most season-to-date saves (42) traded in the month of July in the past 10 seasons; there were more moved in 2003 (93) and 2010 (47). But considering that Matt Capps (26), one of the two closers traded in July 2010, kept his job with his new team, it could be argued that this was the most painful July trade season in nine years.


In truth, July, historically speaking, hasn't been nearly as rough a month for fantasy save-seeking as might be the public perception. Cobbling the list of pitchers with at least 10 saves in the given year, who at the time of their July trade were the closers for their teams, here is the damage report in the past 10 seasons:


2011 (23 saves before, 0 after): Francisco Rodriguez (23 saves before, 0 after)
2010 (47/17): Matt Capps (26/16), Octavio Dotel (21/1)
2009 (20/1): George Sherrill (20/1)
2008 (17/1): Jon Rauch (17/1)
2007 (27/0): Eric Gagne (16/0), Octavio Dotel (11/0)
2006 (15/18): Bob Wickman (15/18)
2005 (6/10): Kyle Farnsworth (6/10)
2004 (0/0): None
2003 (93/9): Ugueth Urbina (26/6), Mike Williams (25/3), Armando Benitez (21/0), Scott Williamson (21/0)
2002 (0/0): None
Totals: 248 saves before, 62 after


Capps (2010) and Wickman (2006) were the only two of those 13 never to surrender their jobs during their team transitions, while Farnsworth (2005) quickly captured the gig with the Atlanta Braves and Urbina (2003) did the same late in the year with the Florida Marlins. But a whopping eight relievers managed zero or one save with their new teams, and four of those did so after saving 20-plus pre-trade. For the most part, being traded is not a good thing for a closer.


Most certainly it's not for Broxton, and Myers' early usage with the White Sox confirms it wasn't for him, either. In Broxton's Reds debut on Wednesday, he pitched a clean eighth inning for a hold; Sean Marshall manned the seventh for a hold of his own, while Aroldis Chapman remained in the ninth and notched the save. Myers, meanwhile, has pitched the eighth inning in three of his first seven games for his new team, while Addison Reed is 3-for-3 in save chances since Myers' arrival.


The biggest reason this is bad for Broxton and Myers was discussed in the June 28 "Relief Efforts": Neither one misses enough bats to make the kind of impact necessary for a middle reliever to help a fantasy team's ERA/WHIP/K's. Broxton's 6.38 strikeouts per nine innings is 25th-worst out of 153 qualified relievers, while Myers' K's per nine is 6.03, 22nd-worst. Calculating strikeouts as a percentage of total batters faced, Broxton's 16.9 percent rate ranks 28th-worst, while Myers' 15.5 percent rate ranks 14th-worst.


The major league averages by relief pitchers in those two categories are 8.31 K's per nine, and a 21.7 percent K rate going by batters faced.


To put into perspective the fantasy relevance of either Broxton or Myers, try sorting Player Rater relief pitcher returns by individual categories. Broxton is the only one of the two who cracked the top 50 in either ERA or WHIP, and he did so with the No. 40 ERA. That means that Broxton's 2.21 ERA in 36 2/3 innings represents only the 40th-most valuable ERA contribution among relievers, and neither his WHIP nor Myers' ERA/WHIP ranks among that class. And if neither pitcher ranks among the most productive sources of ERA or WHIP, nor has strikeout potential even within range of the league average, let alone the game's elite, neither is likely to help in a setup capacity.


Now, the Farnsworth and Urbina examples above illustrate how ex-closers can sometimes return to relevance post-trade, within the same season, which provides both Broxton and Myers some hope as handcuffs. Both represent next-in-line candidates for saves behind Chapman and Reed, respectively, and either injury or extended struggles by the men ahead of them could restore them to the ninth inning. But here's the counterpoint: Couldn't it be argued that, at least in shallow mixed leagues, if you cut Broxton and Myers today, you'd stand an excellent chance of finding them still available as free agents on a potential future day that they recapture closer roles?


It's a chance worth taking. Consider both cut-worthy.



TOP 75 RELIEF PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 75 relief pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued.
<table><thead><tr><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Rnk </center></th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"> Player, Team </th><th style="vertical-align: bottom;"><center> Prev
Rnk </center></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Craig Kimbrel, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 1 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aroldis Chapman, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 2 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kenley Jansen, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 4 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Fernando Rodney, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 3 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Motte, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 6 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Hanrahan, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joe Nathan, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 5 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Soriano, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 7 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 9 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ernesto Frieri, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Huston Street, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Chris Perez, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 10 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 12 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Papelbon, Phi </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 8 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tyler Clippard, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 11 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> J.J. Putz, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 14 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 15 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rafael Betancourt, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 16 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Ryan Cook, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jim Johnson, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 13 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 18 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jose Valverde, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 19 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 20 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Casey Janssen, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 17 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Santiago Casilla, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 21 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Addison Reed, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 22 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Alfredo Aceves, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Greg Holland, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 25 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Glen Perkins, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Carlos Marmol, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 27 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> John Axford, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Robertson, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Steve Cishek, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 30 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sergio Romo, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 24 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 31 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Marshall, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 28 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 32 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Bobby Parnell, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 29 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 33 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Frank Francisco, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> David Hernandez, Ari </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 34 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Vinnie Pestano, Cle </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Luke Gregerson, SD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 37 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joaquin Benoit, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 38 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joel Peralta, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 39 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Wilton Lopez, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 40 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brett Myers, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 26 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jared Burton, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 35 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Drew Storen, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Rex Brothers, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 41 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonathan Broxton, Cin </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 23 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 45 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Aaron Crow, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 46 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Grant Balfour, Oak </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 44 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Andrew Bailey, Bos </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 48 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mike Adams, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 47 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Heath Bell, Mia </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 43 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jeremy Affeldt, SF </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Scott Downs, LAA </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 36 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Tim Collins, KC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 50 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> James Russell, ChC </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 53 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 54 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Rodriguez, Mil </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 51 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jason Grilli, Pit </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 55 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jonny Venters, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Pedro Strop, Bal </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Jon Rauch, NYM </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 56 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Mitchell Boggs, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Capps, Min </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 42 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 61 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Octavio Dotel, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 57 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Thornton, CWS </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 52 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Robbie Ross, Tex </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 49 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 64 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon League, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 62 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Kyle Farnsworth, TB </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 65 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 66 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brandon Lyon, Tor </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 67 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Edward Mujica, StL </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 68 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Sean Burnett, Wsh </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 58 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 69 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Brayan Villarreal, Det </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 59 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 70 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Javy Guerra, LAD </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 63 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 71 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Lucas Luetge, Sea </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 72 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Francisco Cordero, Hou </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 73 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Joba Chamberlain, NYY </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 74 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Eric O'Flaherty, Atl </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> NR </td></tr><tr class="last"><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 75 </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;"> Matt Belisle, Col </td><td style="vertical-align: middle;" align="center"> 60 </td></tr></tbody></table>




What's left behind in Kansas City?



Wednesday's game gave us every bit of the insight we need about the Royals' new closer: Only 24 hours after earning the endorsement of his manager, Ned Yost, Greg Holland pitched a perfect ninth inning to record his first save.


It was the right decision by Yost; consider this a time in which a major league manager made the correct call both statistically speaking as well as skills-wise, in a situation in which there were as many as three viable candidates. Holland has been the Royals' reliever who has been most lights-out in recent weeks; he has a 2.10 ERA, 12.06 K/9 and nine holds in 35 games since returning from a rib injury on May 12. Only five times during that span has he been scored upon, and in his past 12 appearances he has issued just three walks in 12 2/3 innings.


That's not to say that Holland wouldn't quickly face competition for saves if he falters at any point. Aaron Crow, his most likely setup man, has made tremendous strides polishing his arsenal to counteract left-handed hitters; they have .129/.206/.210 triple-slash rates against him in 2012 after .311/.381/.538 in 2011. Tim Collins, meanwhile, has become a valuable multi-inning asset in the Royals' bullpen, his 11.77 K/9 second-best on the team. If you're looking for holds and the primary handcuff, Crow's your choice.


Holland is the premium pickup for fantasy owners, however, and he'll surely rank among the week's most-added players. He's already up to 37.2 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, a number that might be close to 100 percent by week's end. If he's somehow still available in yours, grab him now.


What's left behind in Houston?



In a word: Ugliness.


Chalk this managerial decision -- at least the initial one -- up as the wrong one, as Brad Mills first selected veteran closer Francisco Cordero as his ninth-inning choice, on the heels of the Myers trade. This despite Cordero's career worsts in terms of losses (8), ERA (7.55), WHIP (2.01) and batting average allowed (.340), plus three blown saves in five opportunities with his previous team, the Toronto Blue Jays, earlier in the year. Cordero promptly "rewarded" Mills with three consecutive blown saves, each time allowing multiple runs.


That forced Mills' hand, and he announced earlier in the week that he'd grant the next chance to Wilton Lopez, the team's most valuable relief pitcher and second-most valuable pitcher overall (check the WAR), albeit one who has battled his share of injury issues this season. Lopez is in the midst of a third consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA for the Astros, and his control is impeccable; he has a 1.65 lifetime walks per nine innings rate, and 1.14 this season.


The question, however, is exactly how often will the Astros even have a save chance? Backers of the "bad-teams-can-have-good-fantasy-closers" argument always point to Bryan Harvey's 1993 as their evidence, but more recent studies have shown that closers for truly awful teams -- think contenders for an all-time loss record -- do suffer in terms of saves. Part of the reason, of course, are the individuals closing … like, say, Cordero continuing to blow games had the Astros kept him in the role the remainder of the year.


Grab Lopez if he's available in your league and you're digging deep for saves. But would anyone be shocked if the Astros as a team don't tally more than five saves between now and October?


Other names affected by deadline-day news



Brandon League: He had already lost his closer's job with the Seattle Mariners, so his trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers merely confirms that he won't -- barring an injury to Kenley Jansen -- be saving any future games. League has pitched better since being demoted from the closer role, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his final 25 appearances for the Mariners, but that elevated WHIP and 5.40 K/9, seventh-worst among qualified relievers, show that he's probably even more poorly equipped to help in ERA/WHIP/K's than either Broxton or Myers. League might be one of the worst "name value" players in whom to sink your stashed FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) dollars/high waiver position.


Tom Wilhelmsen: With League gone, Wilhelmsen has the Mariners' closer role all to himself. Considering how well he has pitched since taking over, however, was there really any doubt? He's 15-for-16 in save chances with a 0.92 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 10.43 K/9 in his past 25 appearances, with seasonal FIP/xFIP numbers that back up his performance as legitimate and a home ballpark that is awfully forgiving with mistakes. The Mariners' poor win potential is an obstacle, but Wilhelmsen clearly belongs among the top 20 at his position now.


Edward Mujica: Though his 66.5 percent left-on-base rate hints that he has been somewhat unfortunate in the ERA department (4.28), Mujica's rapidly plummeting strikeout rate is perhaps behind his down year. He has a 5.85 K/9; he managed more than a K per inning as recently as 2010. Still, he's a worthwhile pickup for the St. Louis Cardinals, who have a way of turning struggling relievers into handy ERA/WHIP helpers. Fantasy owners might not want to pounce -- Mujica's prospects for saves were greater with the Miami Marlins -- but he could enter the NL-only ERA/WHIP/K's conversation in time … once he shows whether his strikeout decline is legitimate.


Josh Lindblom: He's an interesting pickup by the Philadelphia Phillies, and considering their many issues in middle relief this season, could quickly force himself into the eighth-inning picture ahead of Antonio Bastardo. A converted starter, Lindblom has a 2.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.34 K/9 in 76 career big league appearances to date. If there's anything bothersome about his move east, it's that he's a fly ball pitcher -- he has a 46.2 percent lifetime rate -- moving to a smaller home venue in Citizens Bank Park.

 

[HacheMan]

Chaos, Texas Rangers
Cryptic, worrisome comments from manager Ron Washington about superstar free-agent-to-be Josh Hamilton? Check.

Another clunker of an outing from $56 million import Yu Darvish? Check.

Tommy John surgery for 100-MPH throwing righty Neftali Feliz? That would be a check.

Death-defying, 10-inning win over arch-rival Angels? You guessed it, check.

Stunning recall of top prospect Mike Olt? You better believe that’s a check.

Yes, it was a busier day than normal in Arlington on Wednesday, and one that left the twice-defending American League champions with a lot more questions than answers.

Namely, just what in the world is going on with Josh Hamilton? And we don’t mean his .202/.288/.399 slash since June 1 (that was before his 0-for-5 night Wednesday).

Four days after Hamilton made vague allusions to issues in his personal life, Washington expressed a desire for his No. 3 hitter to tell the whole truth, and nothing but it.

“The issue is something that I think Josh would definitely have to be the one to expose,” Washington said. “It’s certainly not physical. It has nothing to do with injuries. Josh is the one that made the statement and got all the inquiries going, and I think Josh is the one that has to put a rest to the inquiries, not Ron Washington. I can just tell you one thing: It is not because he’s hurt.”

What Washington is referring to is anyone’s guess, but considering we are talking about a player whose personal issues once had him banned for life from baseball, the implication isn’t good.

Yu Darvish

Which brings to something considerably less mysterious — Darvish’s pitching. As in, it hasn’t been any good of late.

The Rangers’ would-be ace got tagged for seven runs on four hits and six walks in just five innings of Texas’ 10-inning win over the Angels. He needed 108 pitches, only 59 of which found the strike zone, to record his 15 outs.

The soon-to-be 26-year-old Japanese import has now allowed five or more earned runs in three of his past four starts, and handed out 20 free passes in his past 31 2/3 innings of work.

That’s not what the Rangers and fantasy owners signed up for, and it’s something that can’t continue if Texas is going to hold off the hard-charging Angels (and A’s) in the American League West.

Now the owner of a 4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 145/70 K/BB ratio through 127 1/3 frames, Darvish is pitching more like Daisuke Matsuzaka than anybody thought possible, or would care to admit. Yu is going to have to master the American game in a hurry if the Rangers’ injury-ravaged rotation is going to have what it takes to clinch a third-straight pennant.

Mike Olt

Nearly every season brings with it an unforeseen prospect thunderbolt — think Eric Hosmer in 2011, Starlin Castro in 2010 — but Olt’s recall feels particularly stunning.

For one thing, this isn’t a cellar-dwelling club looking to juice ticket sales or a stagnant lineup — it’s baseball’s best team, and more particularly, its best offense.

For another, there are roadblocks as far as the eye can see, from Adrian Beltre to Mike Napoli to Michael Young.

Finally, Olt has never taken an at-bat above Double-A. Again, this doesn’t make him exceptionally special — see Castro, Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Altuve — but hints at real desperation for a 60-43 Rangers club that’s watched a runaway become a race.

The most obvious player for Olt to supplant would be Young, who’s hitting a pathetic (going into Wednesday) .252/.278/.324 since May 1. But such a move would come with a bevy of complications.

A. Like Young, Olt is also right-handed, negating the possibility of a strict platoon at first or DH.

B. Olt has made all of 12 professional appearances at first base.

C. The Rangers seem to prefer a rotation at designated hitter.

D. There’s Young’s much ballyhooed/maligned status as the “heart and soul” of the Rangers.


Benching Young for a 23 year old in the thick of a pennant race would be an extremely bold, and complicated, statement from GM Jon Daniels.

So how will Olt be used? He won’t rot on the bench, that’s for sure. The Rangers didn’t jumpstart their .287/.399/.575 hitting No. 2 prospect’s service-time clock for nothing. Between first, DH and the outfield, he should make at least 3-4 appearances per week, and start against most every lefty.

Will that be enough to earn him mixed-league relevance? It’s hard to say. You certainly need to take the chance that it will be, however. Outside of Wil Myers, no one has been putting on a more impressive minor-league lasershow than Olt.

Like with any prospect, the chances Olt struggles his first time through the bigs are high. But unlike most prospects, the kind of rookie success he’s capable of could be a true game-changer, from AL-only leagues to 10-12 team mixed formats.

Indians DFA Lowe

There’s bad, really bad and then there's 41/45. That was Derek Lowe’s K/BB ratio in 119 innings before he was designated for assignment by the Indians Wednesday. A cosmically, preposterously, legendarily and hilariously bad number.

Coupled with his 5.52 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and awful 2011, it’s pretty compelling evidence the 39-year-old righty is done. In a league where Kip Wells is currently holding down a job, Lowe will get another chance, but it shouldn’t be from fantasy owners.

Game Notes: Visiting his old stomping grounds, Matt Holliday homered twice and drove in five runs at Coors Field. In the process, he tied teammate Carlos Beltran for the NL-RBI lead with 75. Per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz, Holliday is hitting .421/.497/.759 with 11 home runs and 40 RBI in 39 games since June 16. That’ll do. … Albert Pujols hit two home runs for the second straight night. Per ESPN, it’s something the greatest player of his generation had never done before. The bombs also give him seven in just 12 career games in Texas. … Jimmy Rollins had his first two-homer night of the year. … Miguel Cabrera did his thing. … Carl Crawford’s only hit in five trips to the plate was a solo home run. … Ryan Ludwick stayed hot. … Ruben Tejada hit his first home run since 2010. … Eric Thames went yard against his former team in his first game in a Mariners uniform. … Carlos Zambrano won in relief. … Starling Marte and Welington Castillo added some youthful flavor to an afternoon tilt at Wrigley. … Matt Cain had a rare five-inning outing. … Carlos Santana continued to heat up.

Short Hops: David Ortiz (Achilles) declared himself “pain free,” but he remains without a return date. … Jordan Zimmermann (shoulder) had his next start bumped from Friday to Saturday. For now, it’s not a concern, but is certainly something to monitor. … Teammate Ryan Zimmerman sat again with a minor back issue, but managed to pinch hit. ... Giancarlo Stanton (knee) expects to return on Tuesday. … The Mets promoted top prospect Zack Wheeler to Triple-A Buffalo. He’s unlikely to pitch in the bigs this season. … Jayson Werth (wrist) will return Friday. … Brandon Phillips (calf) could return over the weekend. … Bobby Abreu got DFAd. He should latch on elsewhere fairly quickly. … Evan Longoria (hamstring) was diagnosed with “general soreness.” … Josh Beckett (back) avoided the disabled list, at least for now. … Troy Tulowitzki (groin) took batting practice.

 

[HacheMan]

Will Dom Deliver? And just like that, another trade deadline is history. While the last-minute wheeling-and-dealing may not have been as crazy as we have seen in the past, it still brought plenty of opportunities for fantasy owners.

This might be the most fun week to scour the waiver wire during the whole season. We're seeing deserving backups getting opportunities, top prospects being called up from the minors and FAAB (free-agent acquisition budget) dollars being spent on the handful of notable players who switched leagues. All sorts of scenarios to keep your team in the hunt.

You'll notice that I didn't include Travis Snider under my mixed league recommendations this week. There's a good reason for that, as I just had him in Waiver Wired last week. But it looks like he'll get the chance to play every day in Pittsburgh, so he should be added where available in deeper formats. Good luck out there.

MIXED LEAGUES

Greg Holland RP, Royals (Yahoo: 34 percent owned, ESPN: 27.1 percent)

After the Royals traded closer Jonathan Broxton to the Reds this week, manager Ned Yost quickly came out and named Holland as his replacement. The hard-throwing right-hander is certainly worthy of the opportunity, posting a 3.17 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 119 1/3 innings in the majors. One concern is that has found himself behind in the count a lot this year, which has seen his walk rate jump from 2.9 BB/9 last year to 5.1 BB/9, but there's no question that he has the kind of swing-and-miss stuff you look for in a closer. Give him a look in all mixed formats.

Ryan Ludwick OF, Reds (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 34.2 percent)

I'll admit it, I groaned when the Reds signed Ludwick over the winter. What can I say, I was hoping the Reds would give Chris Heisey a longer look in left field. However, I'm ready to admit that I missed the boat on this one. After amassing six home runs in June and seven in July, Ludwick kicked off August by going 3-for-4 with a homer and four RBI against the Padres. The 34-year-old outfielder now has 19 home runs on the year and is on pace for his first 30-homer season since he slugged 37 in 2008 as a member of the Cardinals. Playing half his games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, the possibly can't be ruled out.

Brandon McCarthy SP, Athletics (Yahoo: 44 percent owned, ESPN: 45.6 percent)

McCarthy was tagged for six runs over 3 2/3 innings on Monday in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sacramento, but the important part is that his shoulder felt fine. He's scheduled to make another rehab start Saturday, after which he should be cleared to rejoin the Athletics' rotation. The 29-year-old right-hander has been excellent between DL stints this season, posting a 2.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 52/19 K/BB ratio over 78 innings, so he should be stashed away in most mixed leagues.

Denard Span OF, Twins (Yahoo: 20 percent owned, ESPN: 36.4 percent)

Span hasn't received much attention, probably because he doesn't hit for power, so you might be surprised to learn that he's hitting .414 (29-for-70) since the All-Star break. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances, only Andrew McCutchen, Yoenis Cespedes, Buster Posey and David Freese have a higher batting average during the same time span. The 28-year-old center fielder currently holds a 10-game hitting streak, which has increased his batting average from .275 to .296 overall. It would be nice if he ran more, but at least he's getting on base and scoring runs. Use him while he's hot.

Andrew Bailey RP, Red Sox (Yahoo: 41 percent owned, ESPN: 15.9 percent)

Look who is finally on the comeback trail. Sidelined all season following thumb surgery in early April, Bailey tossed a scoreless inning Wednesday in his first rehab appearance with Boston's Gulf Coast League affiliate. He'll likely need several more appearances before being activated, but there's a pretty good chance he'll be in the Red Sox bullpen before the end of the month. Alfredo Aceves has been excellent since a couple of implosions in early April, but don't forget how valuable he was a multi-inning reliever last year. Bailey is worth a stash if you need saves.

Paul Maholm SP, Braves (Yahoo: 38 percent owned, ESPN: 38.2 percent)

The Braves were unable to land Ryan Dempster from the Cubs, but their backup plan wasn't too shabby. Maholm has a solid 3.74 ERA and 81/34 K/BB ratio over 120 1/3 innings this season, including a microscopic 1.00 ERA over his last seven outings. I don't think he's a must-start every time out, even with the recent success, but he certainly gets a boost in value now that he's no longer playing for one of the worst teams in the majors. He'll face the lowly Astros this weekend, so he makes for an excellent streaming option at the very least.

Carlos Gomez OF, Brewers (Yahoo: 28 percent owned, ESPN: 48.6 percent)

While Gomez remains one of the most frustrating talents in the game, the speedy center fielder is doing enough to warrant attention in deeper mixed leagues. The 26-year-old already has a career-high nine homers to go along with 20 stolen bases, his highest such total since he swiped 33 bags in 2008 as a member of the Twins. He's been especially hot recently, batting .321 (17-for-53) with four home runs, 10 RBI, nine stolen bases and 14 runs scored over his last 16 games. Gomez still has a pretty terrible approach at the plate, so he doesn't deserve a particularly long leash, but his speed-power combo has value.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:

(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)

Chris Carter 1B, Athletics (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent)

Carter is beginning to silence those who dismissed him as a Quad-A hitter. The 25-year-old is hitting .275/.405/.652 with eight home runs, 17 RBI and a 1.057 OPS in in 84 plate appearances since being called up from the minors in late June. While he has struck out 21 times, he has also drawn 17 walks. A lot can happen in a small sample, but Carter has mashed in Triple-A for a long time and two brief (albeit awful) stints in the majors in 2010 and 2011 shouldn't close the book on his long-term prospects. Those looking to fill a CI (corner infielder) spot in a deeper mixed league can afford to gamble.

Kris Medlen RP/SP, Braves (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 7.8 percent)

Medlen made his first start of the season Tuesday against the Marlins, allowing just one run over five innings while striking out three and walking just one. Tommy Hanson was placed on the disabled list this week with a lower back strain, which means Medlen should at least get a couple more turns in the rotation. The 26-year-old right-hander is plenty valuable out of the bullpen, but don't forget that he posted a quality 3.86 ERA and 62/16 K/BB ratio in 14 starts with the Braves back in 2010 prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. He's worth owning for the short-term, especially with a start against the Astros this weekend.

Domonic Brown OF, Phillies (Yahoo: 4 percent owned, ESPN: 0.8 percent)

The Phillies traded Hunter Pence to the Giants and Shane Victorino to the Dodgers this week, so Brown will finally get his chance to sink-or-swim in the big leagues. Between the Phillies trying to change his swing, a broken hamate bone during spring training last year and a bum knee this year, the 24-year-old hasn't had much luck since being ranked as the game's No. 4 prospect by Baseball America prior to the 2011 season. The good news is that he swung the bat well at Triple-A after returning from the knee injury last month, hitting .362 (17-for-47) with three doubles and a home run in 13 games. Brown may never be the fantasy monster many predicted he would be, but he's still plenty intriguing. Give him a shot if you have some roster flexibility.

Mike Olt 3B, Rangers (Yahoo: N/A, ESPN: 0 percent)

We learned late Wednesday night that the Rangers were promoting Olt to the majors. The decision comes as a bit of a surprise, as Olt has never played above Double-A and there's no clear path to playing time. We can rule third base out due to the presence of Adrian Beltre, so that means he'll likely split time between first base, the outfield and the DH spot. The 23-year-old has played 13 games at first base and three in right field this year. The Rangers probably don't want one of their top prospects sitting on the bench, so the struggling Michael Young may have to accept a diminished role. Olt strikes out quite a bit, but he has big-time power from the right side of the plate, amassing 28 homers in just 95 games this season. He's a must-add in deeper formats, but those in shallow leagues should monitor the situation until there's more clarity on his role.

Dan Straily SP, Athletics (Yahoo: N/A, ESPN: N/A)

I included Straily under my AL-only names to watch two weeks ago, but now that the Athletics are calling him up to the big leagues to make his debut Friday, those in mixed leagues should pay attention. The 23-year-old right-hander has been one of the most surprising stories in baseball this season, posting a 2.60 ERA and 175/37 K/BB ratio in 138 1/3 innings over 22 starts between Double-A Midland and Triple-A Sacramento. Nobody has more strikeouts this year and that includes all major league pitchers. He also saw zero decline in his strikeout and walk rates after his promotion to Triple-A. Pretty impressive considering he was pitching in the Pacific Coast League. Straily isn't available in Yahoo! and ESPN.com leagues yet, but get ready to pounce. <!--RW-->

NL ONLY

Patrick Corbin SP/RP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

After failing to add a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks decided to remove Josh Collmenter from the rotation and replace him with Corbin. So far, so good. The 23-year-old left-hander allowed just two hits and two walks while striking out five over six scoreless innings in a win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Corbin throws strikes, works in the low-90s with his fastball and his slider and changeup are both average or better pitches. Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs may have more long-term upside, but Corbin is a must-own in NL-only leagues as long as he has a rotation spot.

Welington Castillo C, Cubs (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

The Cubs traded Geovany Soto to the Rangers this week, so Castillo and Steve Clevenger figure to share playing time behind the plate the rest of the way. Clevenger won the backup catcher job during spring training, but Castillo was probably better off playing every day in the minors, anyway. The 25-year-old slugged eight homers in 49 games between Double- and Triple-A this year and had 15 in 61 games last year, so his pop could be pretty useful down the stretch. Castillo bats right-handed, so he could be at a disadvantage if Dale Sveum uses a strict platoon, but he's worth adding in two-catcher leagues.

Brett Wallace 1B, Astros (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

I was a bit surprised that Wallace wasn't called up from the minors immediately following the Carlos Lee trade early last month, but better late than never, I suppose. The former top prospect went 3-for-4 with a pair of homers in Wednesday's loss to the Brewers and should get regular at-bats moving forward. We obviously have to take Pacific Coast League numbers with a grain of salt, but the 25-year-old had 16 home runs in 86 games with Triple-A Oklahoma City this season. NL-only owners can afford to see if there's some kind of post-hype breakout going on.

Josh Vitters 3B, Cubs (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

With Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer indicated earlier this week that Vitters will likely be called up from Triple-A Iowa in the near future. Ian Stewart is done for the season following wrist surgery and Luis Valbuena has been terrible, so it's a logical move as the Cubs evaluate potential long-term pieces. Vitters isn't a strong defender at third base, but he's hitting .296/.351/.502 with 16 home runs and an .853 OPS in 107 games with Triple-A Iowa this year. And while he's hardly a patient hitter, he has already drawn 30 walks this year, his most in a full season in pro ball. It's not much, but it's progress. Go ahead and stash him away.

AL ONLY

Casey McGehee 1B/3B, Yankees (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 1.9 percent)

McGehee landed in a pretty good situation this week, as he was traded from the Pirates to the Yankees in exchange for reliever Chad Qualls. He's currently filling in at first base while Mark Teixiera nurses a wrist injury and should eventually split playing time with Eric Chavez at third base until Alex Rodriguez is ready to return from a fractured hand. Of course, Chavez is no iron man, so there's real opportunity here. McGehee's production has fallen off dramatically over the past two seasons, but his pop makes him worth owning in AL-only leagues.

George Kottaras C, Athletics (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)

Martin Maldonado impressed while Jonathan Lucroy was sidelined with a fractured hand, so the Brewers designated Kottaras for assignment last week. However, it didn't take long for him to find a new home, as he was traded to the Athletics just a couple of days later. Only Clint Barmes has a lower OPS than Kurt Suzuki (.536) among player with at least 250 plate appearances this season, so Kottaras figures to see a good amount of playing time down the stretch. His patience and pop should be useful in two-catcher formats.

Eric Thames OF, Mariners (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.3 percent)

Thames and Travis Snider batted for the Blue Jays' starting left field job during spring training, but now both of them have landed with new organizations. The 25-year-old flopped with the Jays earlier this year, but he collected 47 extra-base hits in just 95 games last year. Sure, Safeco Field isn't exactly the best home hitting environment, but at least it's more favorable for left-handed batters than right-handed batters. In fact, it's not far off from Rogers Centre in that respect. Thames should get a long look in the Mariners' outfield, so he's worth a flier.

Johnny Giavotella 2B, Royals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)

What else does this guy have to do to get another shot in the majors? After hitting .368 with five home runs and 28 RBI at Triple-A Omaha in July, the 25-year-old second baseman went 2-for-4 with three RBI on Wednesday. Sure, he batted just .247 with a .649 OPS in 46 games with the big club last year and underwhelmed during a brief stint earlier this season, but Yuniesky Betancourt and Chris Getz aren't doing much to stand in his way. Let's hope the Royals come to their senses soon.

 

[HacheMan]

Trade math: What's an ace worth?

By AJ Mass | ESPN.com

The major league trade deadline has come and gone, leaving in its wake a flurry of activity that saw pitchers such as Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Dempster and Wandy Rodriguez change teams.



In ESPN standard leagues, however, the trade deadline is still a week away, with all deals needing to be accepted before Friday, Aug. 10, at noon ET. The question is this: Exactly how much does your fantasy team stand to benefit from making a blockbuster move similar to the ones made by major league teams?


Team chemistry doesn't come into play. The decision to make a deal or not comes down to one thing and one thing alone: cold, emotionless mathematics. To that end, let's take a quick look at the numbers to see if it makes sense for you to go after that No. 1 starting pitcher, and if so, how much you should give up to make the deal happen.


Although we recognize that not every league uses the same rules, for the purpose of this discussion, we're going to look at a standard 12-team 5x5 ESPN league. At this stage of the season (almost at the two-thirds mark), an "average" team might expect to have the following statistics:


"Average" team: 930 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 822 K's


We're going to ignore wins, since it's the one category a pitcher has little control over. For instance, a starter can give up six runs in the first two innings and end up winning (see Ervin Santana versus the Rockies on June 10), or he could pitch 10 shutout innings and get a no-decision, a la Cliff Lee on April 18. So let's stick to the categories that pitchers have some control over.


First off, let's take a look at the absolute ceiling for success. Let's assume that the "average" staff continues to produce numbers the rest of the way that are similar to what they have done so far this season. Furthermore, let's assume that the top pitchers in the league will make 12 more starts in 2012.


The best they can do, obviously, is throw 12 perfect games. So if we were to add 108 perfect innings (and for the sake of argument, we'll also add a sterling 13.5 K's/9 rate) to the expected final numbers instead of the expected statistics you might get from a No. 5 starter, you would end up with the absolute dream scenario for your team.


In this experiment, we will use Bronson Arroyo (No. 60 among starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater entering Thursday's games) as our "No. 5 starter" to be replaced by our imaginary automaton. Doing so would yield the following final stat lines:



<table><thead><tr><th> Pitcher </th><th> IP </th><th> WHIP </th><th> ERA </th><th> K's </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td> With Arroyo </td><td> 1,395 </td><td> 1.26 </td><td> 3.79 </td><td> 1,233 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> With Mr. Perfect </td><td> 1,430 </td><td> 1.16 </td><td> 3.51 </td><td> 1,347 </td></tr></tbody></table>




That's your maximum return on trading for an ace at this point of the season. An improvement of 0.10 in WHIP and a 0.28 ERA boost. But of course, you're not going to get that. Let's scale back those expectations to the realm of reality. Let's swap out Bronson Arroyo for someone you conceivably could trade for: Justin Verlander.


In that scenario, your improvement is not nearly as marked:


<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> IP </th><th> WHIP </th><th> ERA </th><th> K </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> With Arroyo </td><td> 1395 </td><td> 1.26 </td><td> 3.79 </td><td> 1233 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> With Verlander </td><td> 1409 </td><td> 1.24 </td><td> 3.66 </td><td> 1268 </td></tr></tbody></table>

We've just swung a deal for the No. 1 pitcher on the Player Rater and gotten rid of Bronson Arroyo and all it got us was 0.02 in WHIP and 0.13 in ERA. And those numbers will hold true regardless of what your starting ERA and WHIP might be, so long as you keep the number of innings pitched constant. Unless your team's current IP total is way off from our estimated 930, you're not going to see much variance in these ratios.



Of course, we're assuming that all of your current pitchers pretty much continue at the same pace they've been on thus far this season. In all reality, some will likely surpass those expectations by a bit, while others will regress a bit. At the end of the day, that will probably all come out in the wash.


Verlander, on the other hand, gives you one shot at catching the goose that lays the golden egg. If he doesn't keep up his current pace, you've traded away for even less of a return than the paltry amount his projected 0.99 WHIP and 2.66 ERA would net you.


Is that worth what you're giving away?


My guess is that it is not, but a quick look at your league's standings will settle that argument once and for all. How many points do you truly stand to gain from such a move? Now factor in the counting stats you might lose from the hitters you are giving up in the deal to get a guy like Verlander.


I'll ask you again: Is that worth what you're giving away?


Now, let's say you are the one who owns Justin Verlander and are getting offers to try and lure him away from your clutches. Should you let the Detroit Tigers ace go? Again, let's look at our projected numbers, this time from the other angle: replacing Verlander with Arroyo on your league-average squad.





<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> IP </th><th> WHIP </th><th> ERA </th><th> K </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> With Arroyo </td><td> 1198 </td><td> 1.27 </td><td> 3.93 </td><td> 1198 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> With Verlander </td><td> 1395 </td><td> 1.26 </td><td> 3.79 </td><td> 1233 </td></tr></tbody></table>




Once you build up a big enough cushion in the ratio categories of ERA and WHIP, it's hard to lose too much ground, even when you go from a Verlander to an Arroyo. In fact, given the possibility that Verlander could end up regressing closer to his career 3.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, does Arroyo's projected 3.82 ERA and 1.23 look all that frightening?


Now add in the value of the guys being offered to you for Verlander, say a package that includes Matt Holliday. Because hitters can give you four categories worth of counting stats (versus only two for starting pitchers: strikeouts and those elusive wins), how can you possibly say no?


The fact of the matter is, unless you're in a keeper league where "next year" comes into play, by the time we've reached the fantasy baseball trade deadline, in terms of pitching, the die has firmly been cast. Unless you find yourself in a multiple-team logjam in ERA and WHIP where the tiniest improvement could net you several spots in the standings, you really have no place to go.


So, don't go giving away your offensive weapons in search of a holy grail that simply doesn't exist. And don't hold on to those Cy Young favorites at the expense of upgrading your hitting statistics simply because they're the best at what they do.


At this stage of the season, starting pitching simply isn't worth as much as it was back in April. If you don't realize that, you're going to have a very long September.

 

[HacheMan]

Trout's Really Unbelievable Mastery?

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

The headline really says it all. That's not true. Or maybe it is. I don't write the headlines, so as I write this I don't know what the title will or will not say.

I am guessing the word "TRUM" will appear somewhere in it, and while that is not terribly descriptive, what TRUM stands for -- Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless information and Musings -- really is. This is my old blog format, the one I did back in the day for my TalentedMrRoto.com site. Posted and emailed every single night, it very well may have been the first-ever fantasy blog. Or not. I have no idea.


Just like I have no idea what I am going to write whenever I start one of these. It's a loose, semi-coherent brain dump that is, like many things I do, more popular that it should be. I always get positive feedback when I do it and I enjoy doing it, so just like last season I am bringing it back for my final baseball column this year.


That's right. Final. There are only so many hours in the day, and with my job requiring preseason football analysis in addition to on-going baseball, some things have to give. I will still be doing the baseball podcast five mornings a week and the two weekly digital video shows I do (Fantasy Focus and Next Level Matchup), but for weekly baseball articles, this is it.


So ... after missing the first month of the season, Mike Trout is now the No. 1 overall player on our Player Rater. Think about that. Guy missed a month (first game was April 28), is 20 years old and, according to our Player Rater, which takes into account only numbers as compared to everyone else's, is the best player in fantasy.


If this keeps up, this has to be the best rookie season in the history of professional sports, doesn't it? What rookie year tops this? If I had to do rankings for next year, Trout would clearly be a top-10 guy. I just wonder how high up on that list he'll end up. One reason I wanted to bring up Trout is something that the SWAN, Zach Jones, sent me and Nate.


Zach brought up a very good point: Because they were promoted at the same time, with a lot of hype and both are very young, Bryce Harper and Trout get lumped in together. And that's unfortunate, because Harper is having a really nice year. And no one is noticing just how impressive it is. Remember, Trout got 123 at-bats last season. Which isn't a ton, but it's something. Look how his season last year, at 19, compares to Harper's 19-year-old season this year:


Mike Trout versus Bryce Harper -- age-19 season

<table><thead><tr><th></th><th> Trout </th><th> Harper </th></tr><tbody><tr class="last"><td> Games </td><td> 40 </td><td> 81 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> BA </td><td> .220 </td><td> .258 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> OPS </td><td> .672 </td><td> .759 </td></tr><tr class="last"><td> K-BB </td><td> 30-9 </td><td> 71-36 </td></tr></tbody></table>





Trout's insane level of Troutness, which is a new word I just invented to describe how all-powerful and amazing something is. Like, here, I'll use it in a sentence. "I'm in love with her, dude. She's total Troutness." It can be used in many ways and variations. "Just aced my exam. I'm Trout!" "Have you seen 'The Avengers?' Holy Trout!" "This is the best Trouting pizza I've ever had."


The possibilities are limitless. Anyway, Trout's level of Troutness has obscured the fact Harper is having one of the Troutiest seasons ever for a 19-year-old in the history of Major League Baseball.


Highest OPS in age-19 season
Since 1920, min. 400 plate appearances



Mel Ott: .921 (1928) Tony Conigliaro: .883 (1964) Bryce Harper: .761 (2012)<< Edgar Renteria: .757 (1996) Ken Griffey Jr.: .748 (1989)
<< Currently has 360 plate appearances


Watch out for Harper next year, kids.


As long as we're in the Zach portion of our TRUM, Zach also sent this note: "I was just shocked to discover that Ryan Ludwick now has 19 home runs (including one Wednesday night!)"


I thought that was a good point. I know he has been hot lately, but his may very well be the quietest 19 home runs this year. So I started wondering: What other surprising stats might there be? My quick search starts now.


Would not have guessed 20 home runs for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Or that Miguel Montero is tied for 21st in RBIs with 64. Jason Kubel, tied for 14th in home runs and eighth in RBIs, is hitting .287 while tied for 11th in strikeouts.


If you haven't seen the new Batman movie, skip this part, because there is a semi-spoiler. I've seen it and I have a few reactions:

1. Bane is one of the all-time great villains. Well done.
2. Everyone who ever doubted me about Anne Hathaway owes me an apology.
3. For a superhero movie, Batman sure doesn't spend a lot of time being super, you know?


Speaking of movies, in my 100 Facts You Need to Know football column, I mentioned that I thought "Superman 2" was the only sequel better than the original. Many people argued with me about other sequels and many were wrong. But there were two that I think they are correct on. "Terminator 2" is better than the first, and "The Dark Knight" (the one with Heath Ledger as The Joker) is better than "Batman Begins," which I also admit. I'm a sucker for "here's how it all happened backstories," so it's close for me, but thinking about it again, and yeah, "The Dark Knight" is better.


Scrolling through the box scores, Chase Headley with three RBIs. Currently 12th on our Player Rater among third basemen, he's basically on pace for a 20/20 and 80/80 season. ... You ever look at a team that's crushing in your league and, as you scroll the list of names, you're like, "How the hell is this team winning?" I sort of feel that way with the Yankees. I get Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson and they've had injuries ... but ... Andruw Jones, Russell Martin, Jayson Nix and Casey McGehee all played for the Yankees Wednesday night. They won 12-3. Ugh ... Ben Revere stole base No. 25 Wednesday. He is hitting .319. He is available in 70 percent of leagues. America, why do you hate Ben Revere? His great-great-great uncle once rode to tell us the British were coming. (Oh, yeah, that's another quality of the TRUM. I don't bother worrying about overrated things like "accuracy.")


You know how you've been dating a woman for a long time, then you guys break up and suddenly she loses weight, changes up her hair, new outfit, totally babes up and you run into the "new" her somewhere and you're all like "Damn!" and a little bit jealous?


I can only assume that's exactly how anyone who used to own Jake Peavy feels. ... If it wasn't obvious before, it should be now. Mike Fiers is above the Wandy Line. ... Another home run Thursday night: Don't look now, kids, but over the past 30 days, Rickie Weeks has been the fourth-best second baseman in baseball, per our Player Rater, and he hit a very respectable .272 in July. ... That's actually a very encouraging start for Wade LeBlanc as he joins the Marlins rotation. Always liked him, he goes 4 1/3 innings, one earned run, strikes out three, walks one, five hits. Meanwhile, Ben Sheets, fantasy zombie.
Moving over to the Cubs' box score, I'm in a 12-team, NL only, 4x4 dynasty league. "The Fat Dogs," I've written about them before and mentioned them on the podcast before, are currently in first in this league, but it's very close and pitching will decide things as offense is pretty much all settled. I just lost Zack Grienke and Anibal Sanchez in this league (if a guy gets traded to the AL, you lose him, period). And who do I have in my bullpen? Shawn Camp. Zero outs, seven hits, five earned runs. Thanks, Shawn Camp. I hate you. Is there any worse sinking feeling than when you see something like that? A reliever who is supposed to help (and in this case -- 25-man NL only, 10 pitcher slots -- maybe I luck into some saves) ... and he does that to you? Arghhhhh.


Here's the top annoying things a reliever can do, in reverse order of how heartwrenching.


1. Middle reliever just gets lit up.
2. Closer brought into a non-save situation ... and gets lit up.
3. Reliever kills win for your starting pitcher.
4. Reliever kills win for your pitcher, gets a vulture win himself and is owned by the guy you are playing that week.


I asked the gang over at Elias Sports Bureau to look up the starting pitchers who had been let down by their bullpens the most this season; they left with the lead, were in line to get the win and then their bullpen blew the win for them. The list -- compiled before Wednesday night's games -- was a little surprising.

Randy Wolf, 8
Jon Lester, 5
Kyle Lohse, 4
Joe Saunders, 4
Homer Bailey, 4
Matt Cain, 4
Carlos Zambrano, 4
Jarrod Parker, 4
Marco Estrada, 4
Cole De Vries, 4


Eight potential wins for Randy Wolf? Eight!!! Brewers fans, how angry are you guys at your bullpen? Be honest. A lot, right? And it's not enough that Jon Lester has been terrible (for him). If he had gotten five more wins, you could have at least lived with it a little bit.


Back to box scores. Juan Pierre steals two bags. Available in about 80 percent of leagues, I expect him to play a lot more for Philadelphia with Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence gone. He didn't start Wednesday night, but still, if you need speed, Juan Pierre, kids. ... And Greg Holland, 1-for-1 in save chances this year. Great strikeout rate, terrible walk rate. Wide range of possible outcomes here. ... I seem to remember saying in the preseason that Yu Darvish was a guy you should grab then sell about halfway through the season. He had a 3.59 ERA pre-All-Star break and now a 7.66 since. Just saying. ... Pirates wasting no time: Gaby Sanchez, yes, Gaby Sanchez hit cleanup for the Pirates Wednesday night for a few at-bats.


I really enjoy the TRUM. I may do more it next year. Maybe I'll do it all the time. Or not at all. Who knows? My next baseball column is a long way off, but you're in great hands with Tristan H. Cockcroft and the rest of the gang here. And again, I'll still be doing the podcast and video the rest of the season, but football calls and football is the Trout, so writing football I shall.
In the meantime, thank you for taking the time to read, follow, listen, comment and give me plenty to think about. I'm very lucky and I am well-aware of it.