MLB Fantasy News 2011

[HacheMan]

Peavy Remaining Optimistic
I was asked on a radio spot last night why injuries have dominated the spring training headlines this year. I didn't have an answer. "Isn't that how it always goes?," I replied.

Whether it's something in the water this year down in Florida or Arizona, or whether we just lose sight of the fact that prominent players get injured every spring, ailments and strains have certainly been major themes in these spring training notes columns that D.J. Short and I have been running since the beginning of March.

That theme, unfortunately, is going to continue here on Thursday.

Cody's Calf Gives Out

Giants outfielder Cody Ross pulled up lame Wednesday while trying to track down a shallow line drive in the club's afternoon Cactus League game against the Angels. He was immediately removed but took a while to make his way into the dugout and was later spotted on a golf cart heading toward the training facilities in Giants camp.

After about an hour, the San Francisco training staff came back with a diagnosis: Ross had strained a muscle in his right calf, the severity of which still remains unknown.

Calf strains can range from serious -- ask Jimmy Rollins -- to mild, and it's not fair to say yet which type Ross might have suffered. At this late date in the spring, though, it's almost certain that the 30-year-old right fielder is going to open the regular season on the 15-day disabled list.

Ross is far from a fantasy monster and will probably go undrafted in almost every well-run mixed fantasy league. This calf issue is just another reason to avoid the 2010 postseason hero.

Peavy Calls Shoulder Problem A "Minor Blip"

Confident after a positive visit Wednesday with a shoulder specialist, White Sox right-hander Jake Peavy told reporters in camp that he considers his recent battle with rotator cuff tendinitis to be a "minor blip" in his ongoing effort to recapture ace status. This quote comes courtesy of ESPN Chicago's Doug Padilla:

"I saw Dr. Romeo today and believe structurally everything is fine and intact and this is just that little minor blip on the radar," said Peavy. "If I get on the mound by the end of the weekend that would really be the equivalent of just missing a start."

Let's get this out of the way first: with Peavy, no injury is a minor blip. The guy has made only 20 starts since the White Sox acquired him in the summer of 2009 and he is still in recovery mode from a major back muscle procedure. But it does come as great news that no structural damage was found in his shoulder and that the new tendinitis is in no way related to his July lat surgery. If everything goes according to plan and he manages to avoid more setbacks, he should be ready to take a big league mound by mid-April.

This year we're projecting Peavy to manage a 10-8 record, 4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 129 strikeouts over 153 innings. For more projections, check out Rotoworld's award-winning Online Baseball Draft Guide.

Wilson Won't Be Available For Opener

Giants closer Brian Wilson suffered a strained oblique over the weekend and it's simply not getting any better.

The eccentric flame-thrower attempted to play a game of catch Wednesday in camp, but manager Bruce Bochy acknowledged afterward that the light workout didn't go as well as the club had hoped. Wilson isn't going to miss a ton of time, but there's an opportunity here for fantasy owners to snag some early April saves in his absence. Sergio Romo, who owns a stellar 2.63 career ERA, looks like an excellent waiver wire pickup at the moment.

Wilson should be able to reclaim his health and the ninth inning role by the third week of April.

Inflammation Spells Trouble For Morrow

The Blue Jays dropped some unfortunate news on Wednesday morning, announcing that starter Brandon Morrow would not be available for the start of the regular season due to inflammation in his right forearm.

A popular sleeper in mixed leagues this year, Morrow struck out 178 batters in just 146.1 innings for Toronto in 2010 and looked primed for a major breakout here in 2011. Unfortunately, with this new forearm issue and the uncertainty that follows inflammation problems, he now carries a couple of major question marks.

It's hard to be anything less than excited about the 26-year-old's long-term potential, but the Jays have already announced a replacement for him in Jo-Jo Reyes and seem to have some real internal concerns about how he is going to hold up in his second full season as a starter.

 

[HacheMan]

MLB expert draft analysis

Last weekend, I had the privilege of representing Rotoworld in the Tout Wars AL draft. It is an honor to draft with and compete against the likes of Jason Grey, Ron Shandler, Matthew Berry, Lawr Michaels, Mike Siano, Jeff Erickson and the rest of the Touts. It is even a greater honor to call these Touts friends. Ok, enough with the sappy stuff. What appears below is a self-critical analysis of Team Rotoworld. I hope this gives you a tidbit or two of strategy or player information that will help as you trek off (either physically or through cyberspace) to your fantasy drafts this weekend.

Get Rotoworld's 2011 Baseball Draft Guide​

The Strategy: Tout Wars is an extremely deep league with 12 owners bidding on AL players only. Given the depth of pitching and lack of top talent hitting, Rick Wolf and I (in our tenth year of partnership) set out to land some big bats early and get into the clubhouse while others battle (and hopefully overpay) for lesser hitters. I have no fear spending big early in a league where the competitors are so good that there is NO CHANCE any player will slip through the cracks.

The Wolf/Colton Fundamentals: Rick and I wrote up a one page cheat sheet designed to make sure we do not repeat some mistakes of previous years. Here a few snippets from that list.

Do not spend big on players without a track record. See, Borbon, Julio 2010 (that was just dumb, I admit).

Do not spend big on players unless they are in their prime (in other words, no aging players for big bucks unless they are superhuman and named Mariano).

Make sure our top starters have strikeout potential (i.e., no big money on Braden, Cahill, Bucholz types).

T in SMART stands for Team, so when in doubt chase players on good teams who will score and win more than say, hmmm, the Indians.

Avoid major investment in players returning from injury. Yes, I know there is profit potential if other owners are downgrading players like Kendrys Morales or Justin Morneau. However, Rick and I are not willing to bet the whole season on injury rebounds.

The Team:

C: Kelly Shoppach $2 and Jeff Mathis $1. The budget had $4 here so we actually saved a buck. With Shoppach set to play only against lefties (he kills them), he could easily hit 10+ dingers with an average that will not hurt us (.286 last three years against LHP). As to Mathis, the room laughed when I rostered him and of course Matthew Berry landed the best zinger. We shall see. Last year, Mathis was hitting .324 through April before he got hurt. He is hot this spring. For a buck, there is good upside there. If the turns back into, well, Jeff Mathis, then he will be waiver-wired.

1B: Mark Teixeira $30: Tex is money in the bank. He is in his prime, plays for an offensive machine in NY and should improve on his average in 2011. Given that Gonzalez went 33 and Cabrera 35 (both with questions about injury or off field issues), this one is solid.

3B: Evan Longoria $33: We would have paid 35 or even more. In our view AL 3B falls off of a cliff after ARod and Longoria. Bautista has no track record, Beltre is always hurt in non-contract years, Reynolds hit .198 for goodness sake, and it goes downhill from there. So, we locked in a strong, prime of career, solid track record player who still has upside.

CI: Chris Davis $3: Yes, he has crashed and burned before (a lot), but he is hot again this spring, is only 25 and could well be traded. In deep league end games, buy big upside for low dollars. Davis is that kind of guy (plus, I got kudos on this one from Matthew Berry, after the Mathis dig, so I have that going for me.)

2B: Sean Rodriguez $14: Admittedly, this was a bit of an overpay. It is not completely clear what role he will play, how often, etc. However, there were a number of reasons to gamble. SRod will be 10+ hr and sb even part time, has hit .300+ at every level, is at that age where players take the next step (26), and the other 2B not named Cano were overpriced. See the oft injured Ian Kinsler at $29 for evidence.

SS: Yunel Escobar $15: Yes, he had a bad year last year. However, Toronto is a better place to hit than Atlanta, Yunel had strong years in 2008 and 2009 and should hit second in Toronto. This will turn out to be a very good buy at a very weak position.

MI: Carlos Guillen $2: He is always hurt, but even if he plays 70 games, we get more than 2 bucks worth.

First Tier OF: Crawford $38, Rios $26; Adam Jones $21: The budget was to go get three prime of career outfielders with some power and good speed at $85. Hit that nail right on the head. Last year, these three combined for 59 HR and 88 SB and a composite batting average of around .290. Nothing is certain, but this trio – all in great hitter's parks on good offensive teams and all in their prime -- should be fun to own.

Second Tier OF: Melky Cabrera $3; Podsednik $3; Gregor Blanco 1: I love the "Melkman". I admit it. I do not care that every writer but me says that he will lose his job to Lorenzo Cain. They are wrong (Franceour is the one who will lose his job). Melky came to camp in great shape and is red hot this spring. People forget that Melky is only 27 and has been in the big leagues a long time. He will outproduce $3 by a lot. Scotty Pods at $3 was just what was left so I really had little choice. However, he has stolen 69 bags over the last two years, so all is not lost. If he gets 300 AB and 12 SB, I have already profited. As to Blanco, he is out of options and I figured he will either be Melky insurance or get cut and land somewhere he could play.

First line Starting Pitchers: Beckett $17; Floyd $10; Edwin Jackson $10: The budget was $40 for three quality starters. Mission accomplished. I know there are those who do not believe in Josh Beckett but I do. Yes, his surface numbers were ugly last year. However, the injury was not arm related, the strikeout rate was still very high and had Tito not left him in to get pummeled by the Yankees a few times, his ERA would have looked a whole lot different. Edwin Jackson was just great after teaming up with Don Cooper in Chicago (77K/19BB). He will return more than $10 easily. Gavin Floyd is not a sexy pick, but every year, the numbers are there (though there were many Tums consumed along the way).

Second line Starters: Pavano $5; Hochevar $2; Duchscherer $1. Ok, I admit it, I have never liked Carl Pavano (but what Yankee fan could?). I also admit that I went 5 because I thought Rick really liked him (I was wrong). However, he did pitch 221 innings with a 3.75 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year. If he only throws 180 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, he is still worth more than $5. As to Hoch and Duch – they are low money upside. Duch is always hurt but if he throws 75 innings, it will be profit for team Rotoworld. As to Hoch, there has to be a reason he was number 1 overall in the amateur draft. Is this the year he shows why? I do not know but it was worth $2 to find out.

Relievers: Valverde $20; Crain $1; Balfour $2: The worst part of the draft for me was having to bid $20 on Valverde. It was just too much. Yes, I had him ranked fourth in the AL closers behind Mariano, Soria and Papelbon (remember, I don't buy injuries like Nathan and Bailey and don't pay big for lack of track record like Perez and Thornton). Given that Perez and Thornton were $19 (and thus would have cost me $20 if I bid again), so by that score, Valverde is not crazy at $20. What makes this a bad price is that Soria and Mo went $24 and those were just better deals. I should have known better. As to Crain and Balfour – Crain is the top righty in a pen with two lefties who lack closing experience so he could vulture some saves and Balfour is behind the ever injured Andrew Bailey and the downsliding Brian Fuentes. Good chance there will be 5-7 saves for each.

Bottom Line: This is a good team but with holes (like everyone else has in such a deep league with great fantasy players). We followed a plan and budget almost to the letter. Now, the question is how good was the plan? That will not likely be answered until at least the dog days of August.

 

[HacheMan]

Neftali Feliz Staying Put
The most interesting storyline of spring training finally has a resolution.

After stretching him out as a starting pitcher this spring, the Rangers announced Thursday that Neftali Feliz will remain the closer, at least for 2011.

It's frustrating from a baseball perspective, as Feliz has the chance to be much more valuable for the Rangers by throwing 200 innings in a season than he would throwing 60 or 70 innings in a closer role, but fantasy owners aren't complaining. The 22-year-old Feliz would have likely faced an innings cap in his first year as a starting pitcher, so he undoubtedly would have been bumped down draft boards. But now that he's staying in the bullpen, he can safely be drafted in the top tier of fantasy closers.

This story isn't over yet, though. During an appearance on a local radio station, Rangers president Nolan Ryan said that the main reason Feliz is staying in the bullpen is because the organization doesn't feel like they have a reasonable alternative for the ninth inning. We can debate about whether Alexi Ogando could be that guy -- I say yes, by the way -- but Ryan said they now have a year to find somebody to fill that role.

Assuming they do, there's a very good chance that Feliz could be starting games for the Rangers next season.

Drafting this weekend? Well, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. This thing is packed with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much more. We're confident you'll be completely prepared on draft day.

Nationals Lineup Takes Shape

Thursday was a busy day in the baseball world, so you may have missed this one.

Nationals manager Jim Riggleman announced that $126-million-man Jayson Werth will bat second in the lineup to begin the season. Ryan Zimmerman will hit third while Adam LaRoche bats cleanup and Michael Morse hits fifth. And, finally, something we touched on last week, Ian Desmond will likely be the leadoff hitter.

Again, I'm not thrilled with the idea of Desmond leading off -- as I mentioned last week, he has walked just 33 times over 663 career plate appearances -- but assuming the Nationals are satisfied with his production, this decision gives his fantasy value a nice boost.

Desmond spent most of last season batting just seventh or eighth and as a result, he finished the year with just 59 runs scored. That will obviously change now that he's in front of proven bats like Werth, Zimmerman and LaRoche. Shortstop might be the weakest position in fantasy right now, so a little change like this should be enough to give him top-12 consideration at the position.

As for Werth, he was already someone I was avoiding in drafts this season, so this pretty much seals it. He won't have many ducks on the pond with the pitcher and the low OBP of Desmond hitting in front of him, so assuming he stays there, I'm not counting on an improvement from the 85 RBI we saw last season.

That's not to say I disagree with the idea from a (real) baseball perspective. Werth is one of the team's best hitters, so the more at-bats, the better. He has walked 12.3 percent of the time for his career while maintaining a .380 on-base percentage since the start of the 2007 season. Zimmerman and LaRoche should be licking their chops to get in the batter's box this season.

Nathan Struggling; Capps To Close?

Joe Nathan entered spring training with the intention to reclaim the closer role. It was an ambitious goal for a 36-year-old making their way back from Tommy John surgery, but also a pretty good motivator. Realistically, though, it looks like he's going to have to wait a little while to get his old job back.

Nathan gave up three runs on three hits and a walk on Thursday against the Phillies, giving him an ugly 11.05 ERA for the spring. We'd feel a little better about him if he was throwing strikes, but he has an underwhelming 3/4 K/BB ratio over 7 1/3 innings. Many pitchers struggle to regain their command after returning from Tommy John surgery, so this isn't a major surprise. The good news is that he is expected to pitch again Friday, making appearances on back-to-back days for the first time.

While Nathan has been shaky at times, Matt Capps has been excellent. He delivered his eighth scoreless appearance of the spring Thursday and has a 5/0 K/BB ratio over 8 1/3 innings. Many questioned why the Twins gave him a $7.15 million contract as an arbitration-eligible player this offseason, but money aside, he should be a pretty good insurance policy. Capps is a bargain on most draft boards right now, so don't be afraid to snag him for some early season save opportunities.

 

[TheWolf]

Thanks for posting all this Hache.....any chance you can post a team by team updated list of closers before Monday night?

 

[HacheMan]

Time To Worry About Mat Latos?
There were all sorts of roster decisions made over the weekend. I'll highlight a couple of them in a minute, but let's start with the latest about Mat Latos.

In case you somehow missed it, Latos was scratched from what was supposed to be his final spring start Saturday with an inflamed bursa sac in his throwing shoulder. The young right-hander initially felt the symptoms on Thursday, but told Dan Hayes of the North County Times on Friday that he was already feeling improved after receiving treatment.

The Padres haven't decided if Latos will need to begin the season on the disabled list, but Bud Black has already confirmed that Tim Stauffer -- a favorite sleeper of mine -- will start Opening Day on Thursday against the Cardinals.

Concern over Latos' shoulder and his poor spring (9.00 ERA and 5/9 K/BB ratio over 10 innings) likely pushed him down a bit on drafts this weekend, so he could end up being a nice bargain if this proves to be a temporary bump in the road. Let me just say, though, that I'm glad I didn't draft him in any of my leagues. Just don't have a good feeling about him this season.

Have a draft early this week? Check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. This thing is packed with nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much more. You'll be all set for draft day.

Brewers Acquire Morgan From Nats

After awarding the starting center field job to Rick Ankiel, the Nationals traded Nyjer Morgan to the Brewers on Sunday for minor league infielder -- and son of Lenny -- Cutter Dykstra.

Brewers general manager Doug Melvin denied interest after an initial report by Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com last week, but said that things changed when the Nationals lowered their asking price. Even though Morgan has the potential to be a more productive player than Ankiel -- both in real life and in fantasy -- it's obvious that his act grew tired in Washington.

We'll see if the change of scenery does Morgan some good, but Melvin said Sunday that Carlos Gomez is still the starting center fielder. And after the excellent spring he's had, it's hard to say otherwise. The 25-year-old is batting .339 with three homers and 12 RBI over 56 Cactus League at-bats, so he probably deserves first dibs for now.

Gomez has always been worth watching in fantasy leagues because of his speed, but he has a measly .246/.293/.349 batting line over 1,420 major league plate appearances. Morgan might not threaten his job immediately, but the leash just got a bit shorter.

Hunter Hurt, Ogando To Start?

Lemme guess, you grabbed Alexi Ogando in a fantasy league because you thought Neftali Feliz would move to the starting rotation? Turns out that might not have been such a bad idea. Just not for the reason you first thought.

Tommy Hunter suffered a strained right groin Thursday against the Reds, just hours about the Rangers announced that Feliz would remain the closer. An MRI confirmed that Hunter sustained a Grade 2 (or moderate) strain which will keep him sidelined for at least six weeks.

The Rangers initially talked about Michael Kirkman or non-roster invitee Dave Bush as potential replacements, but they are now considering moving Ogando into the rotation. In fact, many who follow the team consider him to be the favorite for the job. We likely won't know for sure until he starts against Coastal Carolina on Tuesday.

Ogando, 26, was fantastic out of the bullpen as a rookie last season, posting a 1.30 ERA and 39/16 K/BB ratio over 41 2/3 innings. He has limited starting experience as a pro -- and his limited sample against lefties last season gives me some reason for concern -- but he should be owned in all AL-only leagues at this point.

Nathan To Close For Twins, Sort Of

I touched on this Friday somewhat, so I'll keep this brief, but Twins manager Ron Gardenhire indicated Sunday that Joe Nathan and Matt Capps will both get save opportunities in the early going. Nathan is still the closer by name, he deserves that much, but Gardenhire is naturally reluctant to use him three or four days in a row this soon after Tommy John surgery. Makes sense to me.

Nathan hasn't had any setbacks this spring and six of his eight appearances have actually been scoreless, but his velocity is still a work in progress. Both pitchers are coming off draft boards pretty late right now, so you can afford to gamble with either. If all goes well, the job will eventually be Nathan's, though.

Lidge To Begin Season On DL

As if the Phillies needed anything else to worry about, Brad Lidge will begin the season on the disabled list with shoulder soreness.

Lidge felt pain while pitching against the Twins on Thursday, which was his first appearance after missing the past two weeks with biceps tendinitis. The team hopes an MRI exam on Tuesday will rule out any structural damage in the shoulder, but as of now, there's no timetable for his return.

For what it's worth, Phillies beat writer Todd Zolecki believes that Jose Contreras will get the first crack at the closer role during Lidge's absence. Zolecki also has some interesting quotes from pitching coach Rich Dubee regarding Ryan Madson's ability to close games. Worth checking out. It sounds like they'd like to keep him in the eighth inning.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Wandy Rodriguez struggles again

By Eric Karabell

Welcome back to Box Score Bits, our collection of game notes from around the big leagues. Posted Monday through Friday, this blog is usually posted early in the day, with its goal being not necessarily to cover the biggest news of the previous night. For instance, Felix Hernandez might toss a two-hit shutout and fan 14 hitters in a 1-0 win, but "The King" is owned in every league. You know he's good, and his status doesn't change much by even that gem. However, perhaps the pitcher he outduels is Texas Rangers lefty Derek Holland, who nearly matches him pitch for pitch. Now that's who you'll see noted in Box Score Bits, along with injuries and changes in value. We'll keep it short and sweet, just a few notes per night.
Here are Monday's Box Score Bits from the weekend games. At this late stage, the spring training box scores can foreshadow starting lineups, platoons, etc. Soon enough we'll get the real box scores; the games begin Thursday!


• Houston Astros left-hander Wandy Rodriguez is established in fantasy circles, but Sunday's pounding against the Detroit Tigers left him 0-3 with an 8.04 ERA and 1.91 WHIP this spring. Rodriguez struggled last March as well, and in May and June, but his second half bounce-back (2.11 ERA) proved his worth. Get him at a discount if possible.
• Trying to analyze the home run leaders of the spring? Jake Fox of the Baltimore Orioles and Michael Morse of the Washington Nationals each have nine. Nobody else has as many as seven. Fox and Morse prove why spring stats mean only so much. Morse has a starting job. He would have one even had he hit only two home runs. He's definitely standard league-worthy. Fox, meanwhile, is a reserve with little mixed-league value.
• Oakland Athletics closer Andrew Bailey is headed to the disabled list, and it could be a lengthy stay. Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour are likely to see save chances (in that order, based on experience). If you need saves, don't assume you can sign Fuentes as a free agent in May. He might have eight saves by then, with Bailey's return still questionable. • After torturing fantasy owners -- and the Kansas City Royals -- for years, it looks like Alex Gordon could blossom. Gordon's home run on Sunday was his fifth of the spring; he's hitting .365 with 22 RBIs. He even has stolen four bases in seven attempts. I know we've been here before, but I've moved Gordon, an outfielder, into mixed-league consideration.

 

[HacheMan]

When Will We See Chase Utley?
Welcome to my final edition of the Spring Training Blog. I've never been so excited to say goodbye in my life, since this means Opening Day is just a couple days away.

Oh don't worry, I'll still be around. Like last season, I'll be doing Waiver Wired every week, attempting to uncover some gems that can help your fantasy team. Look my season debut sometime next Thursday.

OK, enough chit-chat. Let's barrel through some spring training news before we go our separate ways.

Uncertainty Over Utley

Tell me if you've heard this one before. Chase Utley has a bum knee and there's no timetable for his return. That's pretty much what we got from the second baseman on Monday, as he told reporters that he has seen some recent improvement with his knee -- specifically, he has been able to take some light ground balls -- and is still hopeful that he will be able to avoid surgery.

Again, he didn't offer any timetables, but when asked (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) if he sees himself playing before the All-Star break, Utley said "that would be a goal, yes." For what it's worth, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Monday that he has no current plans to place Utley on the 60-day disabled list, so there's at least some reason for optimism right now.

Still, the uncertainty over this situation is only going to knock him down further on last-minute draft boards. There's a certain point where Utley could be worth the gamble, especially if you can stash him on the DL, but man, I'm just not counting on him. Be prepared to have a quality backup plan, at least for the first half of the season.

For a complete look at our second base projections, check out Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. We have nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, depth charts, ADP (average draft position) data and much more.

Why Should You Care About Matt Treanor?

The Rangers made an interesting move Monday, trading Matt Treanor to the Royals for cash considerations. Originally we thought the Rangers would carry three catchers on their roster, but they're apparently content going with Yorvit Torrealba and Mike Napoli behind the plate.

If you're a concerned Michael Young owner like me, you should be happy about this. With Treanor out of the way, Napoli will see less at-bats at designated hitter. Young dropped a little bit on draft boards this spring after his very public spat with Rangers GM Jon Daniels, but unless something changes, he should be able to get around 500 at-bats again. Third base doesn't have a ton of depth this season, particularly in AL-only formats, so depending on how far Young fell, he could end up being a nice little bargain.

Wilson Starting Season on DL?

Giants manager Bruce Bochy said Monday that Brian Wilson's chances of being ready for the season are "less than 50-50." Wilson has been sidelined recently with a strained left oblique and missed time early in camp due to back stiffness.

Assuming the Giants use the cautious approach, they could backdate his DL-stint and have him back as soon as the second series of the season against the Padres. In other words, no big deal.

The Giants have a number of options who could fill in for Wilson, including Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt, among others. Romo is my favorite, but don't go nuts to get him if we're only talking about a couple of games.

Dodgers Lock Up Billingsley

According to Jim Peltz of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers and Chad Billingsley have reached a tentative agreement on a three-year contract extension worth $35-36 million, including a possible option for a fourth year.

Complete details aren't yet known, but Tony Jackson of ESPN Los Angeles writes that the deal will cover the 2012-2014 seasons while the option year would keep him with the club through 2015. Billingsley and the Dodgers avoided arbitration in January by agreeing to a one-year, $6.275 million contract, so presumably that would stay the same.

Billingsley, 26, is 59-41 with a 3.55 ERA over his first five seasons in the big leagues. He went 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA over 31 starts last season and has made at least 31 starts over each of the past three seasons. The Rotoworld Draft Guide has him down for 14 wins and a 3.46 ERA this season.

Beltran Expected To Start Season With Mets

Here's a surprise. While the disabled list appeared likely just a couple of days ago, the Mets now expect Carlos Beltran to begin the season with the team.

Beltran played a couple minor league games in right field over the weekend and the Mets feel confident enough about his progress that he's starting in right field for Tuesday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals. This is significant, because it takes away the team's ability to backdate a potential DL-stint.

Beltran is probably a little bit rusty with the bat -- remember, he has only played in one Grapefruit League game this spring -- so it's possible that Mets manager Terry Collins will drop him in the order in the early going. Fantasy owners should also be aware that the Mets will likely give him regular rest and use a defensive replacement late in games. If you own Beltran, be prepared to be flexible. His knees are far from a sure thing, so just have a backup plan in place.

Scherzer Rocked In Final Spring Start

OK, my final tidbit before I say farewell. You may have noticed that Max Scherzer was knocked around pretty good by the Orioles on Monday, allowing 11 runs on 12 hits -- including three homers -- over just 2 1/3 innings. Following the game, Scherzer told Jason Beck of MLB.com that he is working through some mechanical issues. Time to worry?

I'm going to say no. Sure, Scherzer has the Yankees on tap for Saturday, so I wouldn't blame you if you decided to sit him, but this is the same guy who went 11-7 with a 2.46 ERA after returning from his demotion last season. If you have a paranoid owner in your league, I would suggest now is the time to pounce.

 

[HacheMan]

Edinson Volquez, Reds SPs undervalued

By Eric Karabell

To the common man, the most well-known pitcher on the Cincinnati Reds staff probably is Cuban import Aroldis Chapman, who has all of 13 1/3 major league innings to his name. He's neither starting nor closing games for the big club. It's odd because the Reds actually won the NL Central last season, thanks in part to a pitching staff that posted the 12th-best ERA in the majors (of course, leading the NL in runs scored didn't hurt, either). Still, as I participated Monday in what will probably be my final mock draft before the season begins, I watched each of the Reds actual starting pitchers get ignored for nearly the entire length of the proceedings.


Finally, a few of them went. I queued up Opening Day starter Edinson Volquez, projected by ESPN Fantasy for a pretty sweet 193 strikeouts and 14 wins, with usable peripherals. Later on I chose Bronson Arroyo, a 17-game winner, for my bench. And minutes later Travis Wood came off the board. I'm pretty sure Johnny Cueto would have gone, too, if he were healthy. But the bottom line is no Reds pitchers seemed at all coveted; even 40-save closer Francisco Cordero was out there until Round 15.
Chapman, incidentally, did not get selected by our crack staff of drafters, though in ESPN average live drafts, he's going in the 22nd round, on average, ahead of closers Brandon Lyon, Kevin Gregg, Joel Hanrahan, Jonny Venters and plenty of players at other positions, namely starting pitchers, I'd choose. But I digress. The point here is that 72 pitchers are going ahead of any Reds starters in ESPN drafts, and I find that peculiar. Why would that be? I think it's obvious why it's happening, but I feel like the perceptions are a bit wrong.
Volquez: He's being ignored because people have short memories. In 2008, Volquez went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 206 strikeouts. Then he had Tommy John surgery, and I'd say his 2009-10 statistics are meaningless. Volquez always scared me a tad due to his occasional loss of control and the resulting high number of walks, but he's a potential ace (albeit with a high WHIP) for a good team. I have him slotted in the low 50s in my starting-pitcher ranks, and I'm not generally a big fan of his to start with. He seems worth the risk. Cueto: He's headed to the DL because of mild shoulder inflammation, but the Reds seem confident he will pitch in April. Statistically, Cueto hasn't been a big winner or strikeout option, but he has made strides each season, and he's only 25. I think there's still some upside left that we haven't seen, though not to the level Volquez has shown. Before the injury, I would have gone Cueto over Volquez, and even now, I think Cueto is still draftable in standard mixed leagues.

Wood: The young lefty kind of came out of nowhere -- that might be the problem to fantasy owners -- and his overall numbers were impressive. I find it a bit strange that he wasn't guaranteed a rotation spot for this season, but injuries to other pitchers took care of that; now he's projected to start the Reds' second game. Wood should see some statistical regression, but he's a strikeout option and still has plenty of upside. I wrote about Wood and Homer Bailey -- who I would definitely ignore -- in February. Bailey has a shoulder impingement, and we likely won't see him before May. His K rate was impressive last year, so don't completely write him off if/when healthy.
Arroyo: This one I really don't get. Yes, we all want pitchers who can strike out plenty of hitters, so we can compete in that category. But Arroyo wasn't exactly a Derek Lowe-type last season, someone who won games despite ugly peripherals. Arroyo's WHIP was good for 12th in baseball. He's currently dealing with mononucleosis, but he'll pitch through it. I wouldn't let this issue affect his draft value. He's durable and wins games, without hurting you. I'd make him the first Reds starting pitcher off the board, probably around 45th overall at the position. Mike Leake: A fantasy darling who skipped the minor leagues altogether, Leake was unbeaten through 10 starts last season. Finally in June, things went downhill. I'd say he could use some minor league work, but he can't get it with Bailey and Cueto injured. As it is, Sam LeCure is Cincy's fifth starter in April, following Leake in the rotation. Leake became very hittable as the season progressed, allowing 32 hits in 17 1/3 August innings, mercifully being pulled from the rotation at that point. In reality, Leake's early-season ERA was a mirage, and he could use a strikeout pitch. Ignore him in fantasy this season.

 

[HacheMan]

A Long Absence For Lidge
Happy Opening Day Eve.

Most major league teams have already packed their spring training belongings into trucks and headed north and others will finish that task Wednesday afternoon. The start of the regular season is now finally upon us.

Before that first pitch is thrown on Thursday, let's take one last trip around the fields of Arizona and Florida for some last minute spring training storylines.

Having a late draft? Need quick assistance? Check out Rotoworld's Online Baseball Draft Guide. You'll find an industry expert mock, nearly 1,000 player profiles and projections, tiered rankings at each position, printable cheat sheets, customizable scoring features and more. There's nothing like it on the market and nothing better to have at your side on draft day. Rotoworld's Season Pass will also be launching with the opening of the regular season and carries an enormous amount of updated content throughout the summer and fall.

Wilson Now Confirmed For Disabled List

The Giants' training staff has done its best to give him days of rest and the proper treatment this spring, but Brian Wilson's oblique injury still isn't fully healed and so he's going to open the regular season on the 15-day disabled list. Wilson doesn't seem overly concerned about lingering effects and will push to return on the first day that he is made eligible. If his DL stint is backdated, that could mean April 6.

Wilson still belongs in the elite rung of fantasy closers this season and should be pulling in saves by the second week of April. Look for setup man Sergio Romo to take care of the first handful of save opportunities.

Lidge Might Be Out Until June or July

Further testing on Brad Lidge's sore shoulder this week revealed a torn rotator cuff and the right-hander has been shut down completely for two months to allow it to heal. He told reporters on Tuesday that he's now aiming to "have a real good second half" and not focusing anymore on the months before the All-Star break.

The injury will open things up for veteran Jose Contreras, who Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is said to trust more in the ninth inning role than setup man Ryan Madson. It's easy to write off Contreras' potential fantasy value because he's old and because Manuel hasn't flat out said, "he's our closer," but the big man posted a 3.34 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 67 appearances last season and was steady when given save chances.

If the Phillies are going to be as good as everybody thinks, they're going to have a ton of leads to protect in the early going. Contreras could really make some noise in fantasy circles.

Temporarily Latos Intolerant

The Padres were hoping to pit young right-hander Mat Latos against veteran Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter on Opening Day in St. Louis, but a minor shoulder injury crept up on Latos during the final week of spring training and Tim Stauffer is going to make that season-opening start in his place.

The good news is Latos was able to play catch from a distance of 100 feet Tuesday in Padres camp and he's scheduled to throw off a mound before Thursday's opener. He will be back shortly and will serve as a fantasy ace this season if he can stay healthy. The 23-year-old struck out 189 batters in just 184-plus innings last year.

Beltran Deems Himself "Fine" For Opener

Carlos Beltran has played in only two Grapefruit League games this spring and didn't actually finish either of them, but Mets manager Terry Collins said Tuesday that the team "has to roll the dice" at some point with the veteran outfielder. They're simply going to hope that his knee doesn't suddenly act up once the regular season opens and the schedule begins demanding back-to-back starts from the new right fielder. Though the reward if he's healthy would be sweet, Beltran is one of baseball's riskier fantasy outfielders at present.

Peavy Mows 'Em Down In Tune-Up

The White Sox have already committed to placing right-hander Jake Peavy on the 15-day disabled list when season-opening rosters go final, but all signs point to him being ready before the end of April.

Peavy was scheduled to throw three innings in a minor league simulated game Tuesday. Instead he threw four and retired all 13 batters that he faced while using just 45 pitches. It was a statement outing, and that statement was, "I'm ready." The White Sox rushed him through his recovery last time, though, and seem likely to play it safe.

Peavy already has minor league rehab starts scheduled for April 8 and April 13.

 

[HacheMan]

It's Here: Opening Day
You've waited and waited, and now finally it's here. Welcome to the 2011 baseball season. Welcome to Opening Day.

Thursday brings us five afternoon games. The Braves take on the Nationals at 1:05pm ET, the Tigers and Yankees get going soon after, then it's Brewers vs. Reds, Angels vs. Royals and Padres vs. Cardinals bringing up the rear with a trio of 4:00pm ET start times. The Giants and Dodgers will cap it all off with a 8:05pm ET tilt.

If this is your first time at Rotoworld or you mostly just stick to player news and don't often read the columns, this here is the Daily Dose. It will be published before 8am ET every weekday from now until the end of the season and will contain a range of different fantasy-related notes on teams and players. You might find it useful to skim every morning. Or every other morning. Whatever suits your fantasy team's needs.

Rotoworld's baseball columns don't end at the Dose, of course. Matt Stroup will be examining players who are trending up and trending down every Monday. On Tuesday, I'll bring you a live chat. On Wednesday, you'll get a lengthy look at the status of baseball's closers and base-stealers from Eno Sarris. Thursday calls for D.J. Short's weekly look at potentially valuable players on the waiver wire, on Friday comes a feature from Nick Nelson that breaks down two-start pitchers and more for the upcoming week, then Glenn Colton caps it all off with the "Week That Was" on Saturdays.

Another great season is in the works. On to the good stuff...

* This is old news by now, but still highly impactful for fantasy owners seeking saves in the month of April: Phillies closer Brad Lidge has been shut down for the next month -- maybe two -- due to a partially torn rotator cuff in the shoulder of his throwing arm. The Phillies haven't completely committed to veteran right-hander Jose Contreras as Lidge's replacement, but we don't think they'll turn back to Ryan Madson after his struggles in the ninth inning last year. Contreras can still deal. He struck out a batter per inning in 2010 and posted a 1.74 ERA over 10 appearances this spring. Grab the well-traveled Contreras if he's still available.

* Lidge isn't the only closer battling an unfortunate late-spring injury. Oakland's Andrew Bailey was placed on the 15-day disabled list as final cuts were being made in A's camp Wednesday and is expected to miss the first week or two of the regular season. Bailey has finished with ERAs under 2.00 in each of his two major league campaigns and belongs near the top rung of fantasy closers this season even with the missed time. But now is a good time to snag Brian Fuentes and ride him for some early save chances.

* The Giants delivered a bit of exciting and somewhat unexpected news on Wednesday evening, announcing that top prospect Brandon Belt is going to open the 2011 season as the club's starting first baseman. Belt crushed 23 home runs, managed a 1.075 OPS and tallied 112 RBI across 136 minor league games in 2010 -- his first year of professional baseball. The 22-year-old is still raw and probably a bit too lanky at the moment, but he carries an intriguing bat and may be worth stashing in deeper mixed leagues. The decision pushed Aubrey Huff to right field.

* The Brewers might have been wrong about Zack Greinke's original recovery timetable. The right-hander, still recovering from a basketball-induced rib fracture, is scheduled to throw off a mound for the first time this weekend. Meanwhile, other top starters on other teams are gearing up to take the bump for real. Greinke will need at least 10 days of bullpen sessions before the Milwaukee training staff allows him to begin appearing in minor league rehab games. In other words, an April return is out of the question for the Brewers' biggest offseason acquisition.

National League Quick Hits: Giants closer Brian Wilson will open the season on the disabled list due to a strained oblique … Jose Tabata suffered a mild ankle injury during the Pirates' final spring game but is expected to be fine … The Reds are going to be without Johnny Cueto for the first couple weeks of the season due to a lingering triceps injury … Johan Santana is playing catch from 75 feet … Cody Ross will begin hitting again soon and is aiming to return from his oblique strain by mid-April … Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart will test his hamstring Thursday afternoon in an intrasquad game … Andrew Cashner is going to open the year in the Cubs' starting rotation … All-Star outfielder Andre Ethier has expressed a desire to remain with the Dodgers long term … Astros lefty J.A. Happ threw long toss Wednesday and is still aiming to make his debut Sunday start … Stephen Drew might miss Opening Day because of an abdominal strain … The Giants have designated Travis Ishikawa for assignment … J.R. Towles is no longer fighting back spasms and is ready to open as Houston's backup catcher … The Phillies have already given up on the now unemployed Luis Castillo.

American League Quick Hits: Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson is almost fully recovered from his oblique strain and has been cleared for Opening Day … The Tigers placed Carlos Guillen on the disabled list Wednesday and aren't expecting him to return quickly … Casey Kotchman is staying with the Rays and reporting to Triple-A Durham … The Yankees have committed to Gustavo Molina as their season-opening backup catcher … Jake Peavy already has minor league rehab starts scheduled for April 8 and April 13 … Despite a shaky spring, Chris Tillman has been named the Orioles' No. 3 starter … Brett Gardner will lead off against righties this season … The Orioles aren't naming a closer, but Kevin Gregg is the best bet … Grady Sizemore hit the disabled list Wednesday and may need another few weeks to work on his leg strength … Mariners center fielder Franklin Gutierrez is on new antibiotics for his stomach issues and is beginning to feel better … Jack Hannahan has been named the Indians' starting third baseman … Luis Ayala made the Yankees' bullpen.

 

[HacheMan]

Jay may benefit with Holliday out of action

By Eric Karabell

Well, at least St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday doesn't need Tommy John surgery. It could be worse. But the news Friday that Holliday will need an appendectomy and perhaps a disabled-list stint -- it's not a lock -- is obviously not good for fantasy owners looking for a quick start. Hey, at least you got a home run from Holliday on Thursday! And no, this is not an April Fools' Day joke.
Recovery from an appendectomy doesn't take more than a few weeks. Last season San Francisco Giants outfielder Andres Torres underwent the procedure in mid-September and was back in the lineup in fewer than 15 days, though I imagine the fact the team was in a pennant race -- which it eventually won -- accelerated the recovery. He didn't hit, but he wasn't hitting in the weeks before the surgery, either.

The Cardinals have yet to place Holliday on the DL because they're not sure he needs more than 15 days to recover. General manager John Mozeliak told reporters the team will determine whether a DL stint is warranted later, as not all appendectomies are the same. It's good news, for example, that doctors diagnosed Holliday's stomach discomfort so quickly and that the appendix didn't burst.
<OFFER>It's April. And the Cardinals, despite a rough offseason (Adam Wainwright's injury, the Albert Pujols noncontract situation, etc.), won't be eliminated from any pennant race in April, so I don't expect Holliday to be rushed back. He should play again this month, so fantasy owners should not panic. In addition, if you're going to lose a hitter, let it be an outfielder or first baseman.
This situation does bring a few Cardinals thoughts to mind. For one, this is not necessarily good news for Lance Berkman. That might sound strange, but here's my reasoning. We all agree, I presume, that Berkman is not going to thrive defensively in right field. He delivered a few hits Thursday but eventually was replaced in right field. I have concerns not only about Berkman's defense but his ability to stay healthy, and when he is healthy, I wonder about his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Jon Jay figures to gain playing time in left field with Holliday out, and if he hits the next few weeks, and Berkman does not, this could create an interesting dilemma for manager Tony LaRussa come May.
Jay should hit, by the way. A season ago, he batted .300 over 287 at-bats for the Cardinals, and while his minor league numbers don't show someone with big-time power he can hit for average and steal a base. He bats left-handed, so there wasn't going to be any platoon with Berkman anyway. If you're in a deeper league and Jay is available, he should play regularly, and I expect him to hit.
Of course, another school of thought in favor of Berkman hitting is that he'll presumably move up to the coveted cleanup spot in the batting order, after that Pujols fellow. What's so good about Pujols? Didn't he hit into three double plays Thursday? OK, that's sarcasm. But seriously, Pujols might see more pitches out of the strike zone without Holliday hitting behind him, meaning more walks and fewer hits for fantasy owners who only want one of those statistics. I wouldn't trade Pujols, however. I just feel like Berkman has to hit, as the pressure is really on.
Allen Craig is a potential beneficiary here, but he's someone I expect to platoon with Berkman. In case you didn't notice, the switch-hitting Berkman did nothing with lefties last season (.171 batting average, .517 OPS). Craig hits right-handed and he's always hit for power in the minors (62 home runs the past three seasons). I don't see anyone else on the roster or in the system the Cardinals could play in left field. Ultimately, I expect the Cardinals to simply use Jay regularly and stick with Berkman and perhaps Craig in right field. Jay wins out, and if he really hits maybe he complicates the right field situation at some point.
As for outfielders available in more than half of ESPN's leagues who seem like wise short-term (or more) pickups, Jose Tabata, Coco Crisp, Logan Morrison and, yes, perhaps Carlos Gomez would lead my list. If you need to replace Holliday's power, look at Magglio Ordonez, Tyler Colvin, Michael Morse, Matt Joyce and, yes, Alex Gordon, who just missed a ninth-inning three-run homer Thursday. Frankly, if there's ever a good time for a fantasy team to lose its top outfielder and second-round draft pick (Holliday is going 16th overall in ESPN average live drafts), it's early April. Don't panic, both your team and the Cardinals will be fine.

 

[HacheMan]

Closer notes: Broxton, Rodney look shaky

By Eric Karabell

Opening Day of a baseball season is always awesome, but for quite a few closers on Thursday, it certainly was not. There were six games played, and in each one of them there was either a save or a closer directly figuring into the decision (and not in a good way). It was a strange day, and fantasy value might have fluctuated some. Since I'm seeing plenty of feedback about closers that owners are already concerned about, let's take a look at how specific players' fantasy values might have been affected.


Stock rising


Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves: Sure, it was only one game -- I won't belabor that point too much -- but one must find it interesting that lefty Jonny Venters was called on for the eighth inning to face a trio of right-handed batters (Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman). Then the right-handed Kimbrel was put in to face lefties Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel (plus right-handed Michael Morse) in the ninth. That's a statement. If I knew Kimbrel would be the unquestioned closer, which isn't official yet, he'd be among my top-10 closers, or at least close to it. Yes, he can be that good. Venters can be great as well, but his stock will obviously fall if he doesn't get save chances


Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers: I've seen various opinions on how Jonathan Broxton looked Thursday, but I watched live and thought it was still the second half of 2010. OK, it wasn't that bad, but Pat Burrell, took him deep for a home run and rookie Brandon Belt, in a night of terrific at-bats, worked him for the final at-bat before lining out to third base. Kuo did issue a walk in his one inning setting up Broxton, and like the closer Kuo consistently threw first-pitch balls rather than strikes, but let's just say I didn't get a "warm and fuzzy" feeling about Broxton after watching him.
Stock falling



Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles Angels: Yes, Rodney has a "one" in the save column next to his name, but other than the next fellow on this list, no closer looked as shaky. Rodney certainly threw strikes after walking the first hitter, but Alex Gordon just missed a go-ahead, opposite-field, three-run homer. Then, he struck out. It was a shaky save to be sure, and while Kevin Jepsen struggled in the eighth inning, I could certainly see hard-throwing Jordan Walden quickly putting himself in position to close. John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers: Well, at least Friday is his birthday. It has to be a better day, right? Unlike Rodney, the game-winning, opposite-field, three-run homer Axford served to Ramon Hernandez did not go foul. Still, I feel like Axford is safer in his role than Rodney and didn't get much help defensively, which could be a theme for all Brewers pitchers this season. I'd trade for Axford immediately if his owner is selling low. He allowed one home run all last season, and while his command could be an issue this team does not want to move Takashi Saito into the role.


Other NL notes: It sure looks as if Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel wants to keep Ryan Madson in the eighth-inning role and vault Jose Contreras to the ninth while Brad Lidge is out. And Lidge could be out awhile. Contreras is fantasy's most added player in the past week, but he's still available in more than 65 percent of ESPN standard leagues. … J.J. Putz seems to have avoided the disabled list for now, but don't get too comfortable. I think David Hernandez is (and should be) next in line, not Juan Gutierrez. … World Series closer Brian Wilson could be activated off the DL before the next Bullpen Report blog next Friday, so don't panic. In fact, maybe see if you can buy low. … No, I have no concerns about St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin. He made a mistake to a mistake hitter, and Cameron Maybin homered. It's one pitch. And contrary to public opinion, Franklin hasn't been bad. The past two seasons he has 65 saves and a 1.11 WHIP. This is not like 2009, when Jason Motte tried to close on Opening Day, failed miserably and has all of two saves since. Other AL notes: I'm starting to believe Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter might actually go with Koji Uehara, when healthy, rather than Kevin Gregg. For now look for a timeshare, especially since Uehara and his balky elbow are unlikely to pitch consecutive days. … I don't understand why Brian Fuentes isn't on ESPN's most added list. In fact, he's barely being added at all. Andrew Bailey is out for more than just a week or two. Sure, Grant Balfour could get some chances as well, but if Bailey is like Lidge, Fuentes could be like Contreras. Don't wait until Fuentes saves a game or two this weekend. … If Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz runs into trouble, Alexi Ogando is not next in line. He's starting. Look for the team to use Arthur Rhodes and Darren O'Day in the eighth inning. … I'm not sure why David Aardsma is on the most added list. The Seattle Mariners did say he will get the job back when healthy, but that likely won't be until at least May. Brandon League is second on the most added list, which is wise.

 

[HacheMan]

Recapping Opening Day
A paltry five games on 'Opening Day' means that it extends into the weekend. Maybe that was the plan, eh? That's okay, we've been waiting so long, we've been so parched for baseball, it's fine. We can keep that 'brand new' feeling going for at least another day. This baseball is quenching a long-pressing thirst.

Another Opening Day for the season means another Opening Day Daily Dose. We'll recap the day's news here, just in case you missed it on our player news wire. Drink us with your cup of coffee, unless that sounds kinda dirty. If it does, well, the deed is done. We apologize. Keep looking in this space for more daily doses, live chats, closer updates, stolen base sleepers, waiver wire pickups, two-start pitchers, and weekly recaps. Lots to drink in! (Sorry.)

* Exceptional performances marked Opening Day. Clayton Kershaw versus Tim Lincecum was all that it was billed to be, with neither pitcher allowing a run. The two combined for 14 strikeouts against four walks, and only nine hits in their 14 innings. Kershaw was the one putting on a clinic, but if Lincecum's defense hadn't let him down, they might still be playing in Chavez Ravine. For the second year in a row, Jason Heyward homered in his first at-bat of the season. Last year, it was a low pitch, this year it was a high changeup, but the result was just as powerful. If Heyward continues to be as excellent as talent evaluators believe he can be, the Braves are a dark horse for October success.

* Exceptionally bad performances also came to the fore. Edinson Volquez surrendered five runs over six innings Thursday in a no-decision against the Brewers. It was the back-to-back homers to start the game, and the four runs allowed in the first two innings, that seemed to suggest it wasn't his day, but he recovered to pitch seven flawed innings. In Kansas City, Alex Gordon rode his nice spring into an oh-fer with three strikeouts in the opener. Miguel Tejada blew a huge throw, went oh-for-four at the plate, and generally looked 'chunky' in the field. We'll see how he and Burrell affect the pitchers this year.

* Blown saves are not all created equally. There's the trickle that could turn into a stream that is Ryan Franklin's blown attempt against the Padres, and then there's John Axford's collapsed dam of a breakdown against the Reds. We already knew that Franklin wasn't the best closer because he's a nothing in the strikeouts category, but if he starts having trouble with the home run like he did earlier in his career, he can lose his job like any other closer. Jason Motte is the gas-throwing strikeout artist behind him if you want a handcuff. Axford, on the other hand, usually has a control problem, but only walked one man while blowing the game Thursday night. His defense let him down a couple times, and then Ramon Hernandez won the game with a shot. There's a chance that veteran Takashi Saito takes the job, but expect the 'crew to give the mustachioed one a little more leash.

* Some surprise starts were announced. Julio Borbon will begin the year in the Rangers' center field, perhaps in order to save Josh Hamilton from injuring himself. Since Jason Bay (ribs) is out for a couple weeks, Willie Harris will start the season in the Met outfield, perhaps to save Lucas Duda from his own (lack of) glove. Mike Cameron will start in right on Opening Day for the Red Sox, but that's because a lefty is on the mound for the Rangers. Is Justin Morneau starting the season a surprise? Maybe, but at least everyone's confident he's healthy. Darwin Barney, despite a lack of power or speed, will be the Cubs second baseman because Blake DeWitt stunk up the joint in spring training. Craig Kimbrel, despite being in a platoon with Jonny Venters, faced the ninth with two lefties in the lineup. Most likely, he will more than double the save opportunities that Venters gets, if only because of the law of numbers. There are more right-handers in the world! And, in a bizarre surprise, Barry Zito will make his Sunday start despite being in a car accident Wednesday night.

National League Quick Hits: Brandon Belt started with a bang; a single in the first at-bat and a walk later showed that he won't be overmatched at the plate this year … Pat Burrell drove in the only Giants run of the game but was terrible on defense and could easily lose playing time once Cody Ross (calf) returns in two weeks … Giant Brian Wilson (oblique) threw hard with no discomfort and will probably be back next week, but it's Sergio Romo closing for now … Kyle Blanks (Tommy John) is on the 15-day DL, retroactive to March 22nd, and is playing first base in his rehab; the powerful dude might be useful in deeper leagues eventually … The Diamondbacks' "prize" acquisition Zach Duke (hand) will be out until May … Cameron Maybin (cramps) left the game early, but he also hit a home run and could be a deep league speed sleeper this year … Tim Stauffer was hittable (nine hits) but showed good control (one walk) and kept his team in the game - he's a decent end-of-staff pitcher … Fellow Padre Mat Latos (shoulder) threw off the mound and looked healthy … Casey Blake (back) is on the DL, but backdated, if you're looking for a mediocre, 37-year-old third baseman … Rickie Weeks hit a home run and a double after a hot spring, and health is the only question.

American League Quick Hits: Ron Gardenhire says that Matt Capps and Joe Nathan are sharing the closer role, but Nathan's talent will win out in the end … Octavio Dotel (hamstring) had his DL stint backdated, as did Frank Francisco (pectoral), so Jon Rauch is getting the save chances in the meantime … Ditto Brandon Morrow (forearm) … Fernando Rodney didn't blow the save, but he did make it interesting - he's one of the worst pitchers in the closer role in baseball, and make sure to handcuff him with Jordan Walden and maybe even Scott Downs … Kendrys Morales (foot) is taking grounders but might be out another three weeks … Travis Buck made the Indians after a hot spring, but is a reserve outfield at best … Ryan Langerhans made the Mariners but probably just while Franklin Gutierrez (stomach) is out … Teammate David Aardsma (hip) threw a bullpen session and looked good, but has no timetable … The Yankees placed Francisco Cervelli (foot) on the DL, and he should be back by the beginning of May … Mitch Moreland is missing the opener against Jon Lester and might miss more starts against lefties in the future … The news got bad quick for Trevor Crowe (shoulder) who is now out four months after surgery … Wade Davis signed a four-to-seven-year deal, and still has some nice potential … Lastings Milledge made the White Sox as their fourth or fifth outfielder.

 

[HacheMan]

Breaking down Week One
The last time I published a column in this space, I was previewing the final week of the 2010 baseball season. Since then, the Giants have won the World Series, Cliff Lee has joined the Phillies to form the most stacked rotation since the dawn of man, and Charlie Sheen has finally gone off the deep end.

Sure, some other events have transpired over the past six months, but all that really matters now is that baseball is once again upon us. Action officially got underway yesterday, but today I'll be taking a look ahead to the first full week of the season.

You'll find a new Week Ahead column at Rotoworld every Friday afternoon throughout the baseball season, previewing the upcoming week (Monday-through-Sunday) from a fantasy perspective. In each edition you'll find a list of two-start pitchers, categorized by the strength of their outlook, along with streamer suggestions (pitchers available in over 50 percent of leagues with favorable match-ups), team-by-team lefty/right match-ups and an update on high-profile injuries. If there are other things you'd like to see covered in this column, or if you have any questions or concerns as we move along, feel free to shoot me an email at nels2807@gmail.com.

I look forward to helping you all get the most out of your fantasy teams this year. Now enough with the pleasantries; let's get to it.

Going Twice...



American League

Strong Plays
CC Sabathia: MIN (Baker), @BOS (Beckett)
Alexi Ogando: SEA (Bedard), @BAL
Josh Beckett: CLE (Tomlin), NYY (Sabathia)

Decent Plays
Gavin Floyd: @KC (Hochevar), TB (Niemann)
Rick Porcello: @BAL (Arrieta), KC
Scott Baker: @NYY (Sabathia), OAK (Braden)
Brian Duensing: @NYY (Nova), OAK (Gonzalez)
Dallas Braden: @TOR (Reyes), @MIN (Baker)
Erik Bedard: @TEX (Ogando), CLE (Tomlin)
Jeff Niemann: LAA (Weaver), @CWS (Floyd)
Jo-Jo Reyes: OAK (Braden), @LAA (Kazmir)
Jake Arrieta: DET (Porcello), TEX (Harrison)

At Your Own Risk
Ivan Nova: MIN (Duensing), @BOS (Buchholz)
Josh Tomlin: BOS (Beckett), @SEA (Bedard)

National League

Strong Plays
Cole Hamels: NYM (Young), @ATL (Lowe)
Yovani Gallardo: ATL (Lowe), CHC (Wells)
Anibal Sanchez: WAS (Marquis), @HOU (Norris)
Mike Leake: HOU (Norris), @ARI (Enright)
Derek Lowe: @MIL (Gallardo), PHI (Hamels)

Decent Plays
Kyle Lohse: PIT (Morton), @SF (Zito)
Jason Marquis: @FLA (Sanchez), @NYM (Young)
Chris Young: @PHI (Hamels), WAS (Marquis)
Bud Norris: @CIN (Leake), FLA (Sanchez)
Chris Narveson: ATL (Beachy), CHC (Garza)
Jason Hammel: LAD (Kershaw), @PIT (McDonald)
Randy Wells: ARI (Enright), @MIL (Gallardo)
Barry Enright: @CHC (Wells), CIN (Leake)
Brandon Beachy: @MIL (Narveson), PHI (Oswalt)

At Your Own Risk
Charlie Morton: @STL (Lohse), COL (Rogers)
James McDonald: @STL (McClellan), COL (Hammel)

Streamer City



The following pitchers are generally available in over 50 percent of fantasy leagues and have favorable match-ups this week:

American League

Wednesday, 4/6: Daisuke Matsuzaka @ CLE
A lot of folks have soured on Dice-K, and rightfully so, but the Indians pack little punch and the powerful Boston lineup should provide plenty of support.

Thursday, 4/7: Edwin Jackson vs. TB
Jackson was outstanding after joining the White Sox last year, posting a 3.24 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 75 innings. Tampa Bay is no easy draw, but in a pinch he's worth a look.

Friday, 4/8: Nick Blackburn vs. OAK
Can Blackburn carry his outstanding spring performance into the regular season? He'll get his first shot at Target Field against the A's.

National League

Tuesday, 4/5: Kyle McClellan vs. PIT
McLellan has some big shoes to fill in St. Louis. He'll have the opportunity to jump out to a fast start with this favorable match-up at home against the Bucs.

Friday, 4/8: Randy Wolf vs. CHC
Wolf is a fringe sort of guy who will show up often in this section. I like his match-up next week at home against the Cubs.

Friday, 4/8: Clayton Richard vs. LAD
Richard was very solid last season, particularly in his home park where he posted a 3.15 ERA and held opponents to a 642 OPS.

<!--RW-->

Total Games



American League

5: LAA, KC
6: BAL, BOS, CWS CLE, DET, KC, OAK, SEA, TB, TEX, TOR
7: MIN, NYY

National League

5: LAD, SD, SF
6: ARI, CHC, CIN, COL, FLA, HOU, MIL, NYM, PHI, STL, WAS
7: ATL, PIT

Lefty/Righty Breakdown



American League

BAL: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
BOS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
CWS: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CLE: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
DET: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
KC: 3 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
LAA: 3 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
MIN: 3 vs. RHP, 4 vs. LHP
NYY: 5 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
OAK: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
SEA: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
TB: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TEX: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
TOR: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP

National League

ARI: 6 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
ATL: 4 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
CHC: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
CIN: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
COL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
FLA: 3 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
HOU: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
LAD: 4 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
MIL: 7 vs. RHP, 0 vs. LHP
NYM: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
PHI: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
PIT: 6 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
SD: 2 vs. RHP, 3 vs. LHP
SF: 4 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP
STL: 4 vs. RHP, 2 vs. LHP
WAS: 5 vs. RHP, 1 vs. LHP

The Infirmary



You can get a full listing of injured players at Rotoworld's Injury Page, but here's the latest on a few prominent players who have been out of action:

Mat Latos: Out until mid-April
Brian Wilson: Returning this week
Kendrys Morales: Out until late April
Andrew Bailey: Out until late April
Zack Greinke: Out until May
Johnny Cueto: Out until late April
Grady Sizemore: Out until late April
Aaron Cook: Out until May
Jake Peavy: Out until late April
Corey Hart: Out until mid-April
Tommy Hunter: Out until May

 

[HacheMan]

Holliday Takes Early Holiday While the thermometer says February, the calendar definitely says April, which means the real thing has started! It is baseball season. And, more importantly for yours truly, it means another year of the Week That Was. If you have your draft this weekend, I hope you pick up a nugget or two from this week's column. If you have already drafted, maybe we can help you snatch a quick victory off the waiver wire. Either way, sit back and enjoy what promises to be a great year for baseball in 2011.


Matt Holliday: In yet another blow to the Cardinal's fortunes, Matt Holliday underwent an emergency appendectomy on Friday and likely will be out at least two and probably three-four weeks. If you own Holliday, there is just nothing you can do but put him on the DL and hope he comes back strong sooner rather than later. The Cardinals have said that Jon Jay and Allen Craig will get the ABs. Who to choose if you can only take one? Answer – Craig who outhit Jay .359 to .221 this spring. More importantly, Craig has hit .290+ with power as he climbed each level of the minors. Even when Holliday returns, Craig will get his time. With Lance Berkman unlikely to make is through the season in the OF and the Cardinals needing to rest David Freese regularly, Craig will be a diamond in the rough. Buy now while you still can.


Neil Walker: Neil Walker started 2011 right where 2010 left off. The Pirates 2b went 2-4 with an opening day grand salami. Not too shabby! While 2B is not as weak as SS, there is not a great depth of options there and that increases Walker's value even further. The 25 year old Walker had been kicking around the minors for over 5 years before exploding in 2010 to the tune of a .321 average at AAA. He then came up to hit .296 and announce he was in the show to stay. Walker was a very high pick for a reason. He is only 25 and has clearly hit his groove. Tell your leaguemates that last year was a fluke (it wasn't) and grab this bargain.


Brandon Lyon: Brandon Lyon poured kerosene on the fire Friday, allowing six hits and three runs in just 1/3 of an inning to blow the save and the game for Houston. Yes, Lyon had a solid second half last year, but he does not possess closer stuff and there will be no reason for the soon to be down and out Astros to leave the veteran in the closer role. My personal choice for successor is Wilton Lopez (50/5 k/bb ratio in 2010). However, you could also store Mark Melancon on reserve. He is a big time talent and will put it all together at some point. As to Lyon, feel free to grab the 10ish saves he will get before losing his job. Just know that is his fate.


Travis Buck: In honor of Schultz, I have to address an Indian (and not Fausto "10 run' Carmona"). So, it is worth mentioning that Travis Buck made the Indians. Why is it worth mentioning? Well, Travis hit close to .400 this spring and did so with power. He will not have a role right away, but this 27 year old (who hit .288 with Oakland at the ripe young age of 23) has more talent and upside than Shelley Duncan or Austin Kearns. Add that to the fact that Grady Sizemore and Trevor Crowe are on the shelf and the fact that Michael Brantley is unproven and you have major league opportunity. If you are in a deep AL league, Buck should be worth much more than a buck.


Clayton Kershaw: Clayton Kershaw made the buzz even louder with a gem on Opening Day Thursday. The gifted lefty went seven scoreless innings, striking out 9. Kershaw is in his fourth season at the ripe old age of 24. He is the real deal and his time has come. You really cannot understand how good he is until you seem him pitch in person (which I have both in LA and in NY). He will rare back and throw 93-95 and then follow it up with a 71 mph yakker. Simply put, that is just not fair. If you want to draft an ace who will not cost ace money, Kershaw is your man.


Matt Kemp: Staying with the Dodgers, Matt Kemp was on base four times on Opening Day, 1-1 with three BB. Will he hit .342 like he did in 2007? No. Will he hit .249 like he did in 2010? No. Kemp had a bad year that you can right off as an outlier. He is a great talent who will hit close to 30 dingers, steal 30+ bases and hit for a decent average. Last year everyone thought he was a superstar and he disappointed. This year, those burned will stay away and wish they had kept the faith. Pay full value with assurance.


Nick Hundley: Nick Hundley started the season right, going 2-4 with two RBI in the extra inning Opening Day win. Hundley is one of those guys I like to take a big step forward but who never seemed cheap in enough in drafts for me to grab. My bad. Catchers tend to blossom offensively later than other players because they have to spend so much time working on not only defense, but learning the pitching staff and opposing hitters. Hundley fits that bill. Over the last two years in the show, he has hit 16 HR in 529 AB. With full time duty practically assured and a step up in the batting learning curve, the power will continue to be there and the average should improve. If he can hit .250-60 with that power, you will get a very good catcher who will cost you very little.


Jeff Mathis: Staying with catchers, Angel Jeff Mathis went yard and added a double in the Opening Day win. Mathis is another example of a catcher who at 28 may yet blossom into a decent offensive player. He had a .276 career minor league average – not great, but hardly the Mendoza line hitter he has been labeled. In addition, people forget that Mathis was hitting .324 last April when an injury set him to the pine. Oh, and he has been dynamite in the post season, hitting .450. Mathis will never make anyone think if Johnny Bench, but he will be a very good buy as a $1 second catcher. My money is where my mouth is – Rick and I own him in both LABR and Tout Wars. [Note, I admit I really want this one to work out because after I rostered Mathis in Tout Wars, I took a good natured verbal thrashing from that noted Angel fan, Matthew Berry. Ok, maybe I shouldn't have raised both arms in mock celebration, but I digress].


Fernando Rodney: Fernando Rodney did what Fernando Rodney does – he saved a game ugly on Opening Day. Will Rodney keep the job all year? No. Will Rodney cause his owners to munch on Tums like they are candy? Ya. However, until he loses his job, he will rack up a pretty decent save total (at least for the first two months). Grab those saves cheap while they are there and then cut bait as soon as Walden, Downs or Jepsen takes the job.


Luke Hochevar: Luke Hochevar was just ok on Opening day, giving up 3 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, the good news is that he struck out five in those 5 2/3 without walking a batter. What to do with Luke? Well, if you are in a shallow league, forget about him. However, if you are in a deep league (like an AL only 12 owner league), Luke is a good low dollar bet. After all, the number one overall pick in the draft had to be number one for a reason. This kid has been rushed – at just 27, he is already in his 4th major league season. Bottom line is that I cannot really justify my faith with numbers or metrics, but my gut says he will return value on the two bucks Rick and I plunked down in tout.


And last, but not least, Schultz says: "Ah -- by looking at the calendar, it appears that spring is here -- even if looking out the window here in New York City doesn't quite give that impression. However, I turn on the TV and there's baseball, so I'm going to trust the calendar. With the 2011 season upon us, it's time to pitch my grammar through the "dead arm" period, brush the dust off a whole host of bad puns and ill-thought out metaphors and get back to work.

If you were paying attention to Spring Training games this year and thought you learned anything, shame on you. Pre-season statistics mean absolutely nothing -- Mike Morse and Jake Fox's astounding months of March notwithstanding. If you have them on your team, stand in front of a mirror and watch it leak sap like a Maple tree. For those of you that gambled on Alex Gordon, I'll give you a pass. It seems to be rite of passage for someone to wager that this will be the year he lives up to the hype. At some point it might happen. The roulette wheel does land on one number each spin. The only thing worth paying attention to is whether a player is healthy. In that regard, it's worth noting that Eric Bedard is giving every indication that he is healthy. Since his move to Seattle after his 2007 leap to superstud status, Bedard has required a M.A.S.H. unit to keep his arm attached to his shoulder. He definitely has flown under everyone's radar. He should be on yours.

So, since we have actual games to speak of, what have we learned from the first two days of season? Well, other than the fact that we all now know that Matt Holliday has a weak appendix, not a whole lot. There's simply nothing you can learn from one game. You may think that it's a good idea to immediately cut Fausto Carmona after one start but that would be rash and foolhardy. Even though it might feel good at the time, spite isn't the best emotion to harness when managing your team.

This wasn't the best couple days to be a closer in the NL Central. Within 48 hours, Ryan Franklin, John Axford and Brandon Lyon all blew their first save chances of the season. Each of these closers has their own set of issues to contend with. In St. Louis, Ryan Franklin has been talking about his retirement long enough that if he had been good for more than 1 1/2 seasons, we would all be comparing him to Brett Favre. He probably has a long leash as Jason Motte is unproven and Tony LaRussa will ride Franklin until its very clear he can no longer get the job done. Ever since Arizona dabbled with the idea of letting Brandon Lyon close, he's essentially been a roto roller coaster of saves, racking them up in bunches with the DBacks, Tigers and Astros in between valleys where he can't get anyone out. Lyon blew the closer's job in Houston last year before reclaiming it in the second half and becoming the most valuable reliever in rotoball over the last two months of the season. Remember your history here. Finally, doesn't John Axford remind everyone of Derrick Turnbow? Anyone win with Turnbow by bringing him back after his 2005 surprise season? Again, remember your history.

It's nice to be back. Game on!"


Response: I think Schultz and I have been writing in the same space for too long. After all, the beginning theme – snow in April – seemed pretty familiar to me when I read the first installment from the baron of the bottom of the page. Ok, seriously, I love the stuff on closers, spring stats and even Carmona. However, if you are in a shallow league, no matter how hard Schultz roots for the Indians, you shouldn't own any Indian hurler not named Chris Perez as the Tribe could easily lose over 100 games.

 

[HacheMan]

Why The Longoria Faces?
We are three or four games into the season. Already the Mets are being mocked (on their own telecast, no less). The Rangers offense is blasting off. The Rays offense can't get untracked and just lost Evan Longoria (out three weeks, strained oblique). The Baltimore Orioles are undefeated and their young aces look bullet proof.

Have we really learned anything though? We already knew the Mets might have a rough season this year, and that the Rangers position players (Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz each had three homers in three days) enjoy that home park. We knew that the Rays lost a little 'O' when Carl Crawford left town, and we knew the Orioles had some nice young arms in Brian Matusz (out three to six with a strained intercostal), Chris Tillman, Zach Britton and Jake Arrietta.

But we should also remember that we are merely three or four games into the season. The Mets have some nice parts to watch - R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Ike Davis and Angel Pagan in particular - so they'll win some games like they did on Sunday, with Dickey striking out seven and keeping the Marlins scoreless over six innings, backed partially by a Davis home run. The Rangers offense slugged under .400 on the road last year (.447 overall), so this surge won't keep up all year. The Rays have some pieces that need to come together and Longoria should only miss three weeks. And the Orioles? Well, they're good and young in many places, but they still have a tough division to face.

The young season is very exciting, but we have to remember to keep calm - especially when it comes to players on our fantasy teams. Don't cut bait too soon, it's the most common mistake in the game.

* The Yankees are 2-1 and have the most expensive team in baseball, but some found the loss on Sunday so despicable that it pushed them to the brink. It's a crazy media market in our biggest city, I guess, or they've forgotten the golden rule. Phil Hughes didn't hit 91 on the gun, and count Larry Rothschild, the Yankees pitching coach, as worried. Perhaps this is actually a problem because the velocity was down during the spring as well, but velocities also rise with the temperature. The ball was jumping out of the stadium on Sunday, too - Hughes and Max Scherzer combined to give up six home runs. Get him another couple of ticks on the gun, and he could still be fine, so drop him at your own peril.

* Since pitchers only pitch 30-35 times a year, we parse their first starts a little more, and perhaps rightly so. Jaime Garcia had a poor spring, and is more of a groundballer than a strikeout artiste, but his complete game shutout of the Padres on Sunday should remind us that he's a good pitcher and should be rostered in all leagues. Matt Garza isn't pitching in front of that excellent Tampa Bay defense any more - that might have contributed to his 12 hits in seven innings - but his twelve strikeouts against no walks also underlines his upside in the weaker league. Knuckler R.A. Dickey shut down the Marlins Sunday and is a fine end-of-staff pitcher in almost any league, even if the strikeouts won't always be there. Dependable but unexciting Bronson Arroyo gave up three runs in seven innings with five strikeouts against the Brewers on Sunday. Randy Wolf, on the other side of that shellacking, and may be on the downslope of his career. Javier Vazquez, after allowing six hits and five walks to the Mets in just over two innings, is not looking great for rejuvenation either right now. Travis Wood had seven strikeouts in seven innings against the Brewers and might have a good year despite not cracking 90 with his fastball and not having great strikeout punch.

Scott Kazmir gave up five runs in less than two innings against the Royals Saturday and his manager discussed his lack of control and velocity after the game. Until he finds those things, he's un-rosterable in any league. Matt Harrison struck out eight and walked only two in keeping the Red Sox offense down on Sunday, but there's nothing in his history that suggests that he'll be a good pitcher this year. Clay Buchholz, on the other hand, is a good pitcher, but was probably due for some regression after a lucky year - call those four solo home runs on Sunday "regression" then. Zach Britton had a great debut, but his game is more about keeping the ball on the ground, so he might not strike out six each time out and should encounter some struggles his rookie year. Just remember Chris Tillman, who was terrible last year, and yet found success against the Rays on Saturday. James Shields began his bounceback season with two earned runs against the Orioles Saturday. Brett Cecil gave up six hits and three runs in five innings, and the former closer won't be too much better than a four era and a 1.3ish WHIP, probably. Justin Masterson induced 17 groundouts to two fly balls on Sunday, and that is his game. He's a solid sleeper if he can iron out his platoon split problems. John Lackey? Worry about John Lackey after he gave up nine earned runs in three and two-thirds.

* First base is first in our hearts but last in our pararagraphs. The position is always a great one for offensive statistics, and this weekend was more of the same. Ryan Howard drove in six runs over the first series, and Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera all had nice multi-hit games on Sunday. Miggy Cabs hit two home runs, Davis one, and Sanchez none, which does sorta fall in line with how their overall power should rank, but even Sanchez is useful in mixed leagues. He should at least be able to put up a decent batting average. Let's give a shout-out to Garrett Jones for his three hits and a homer over the weekend, too, even if he's a part-timer at the position in real life.

National League Quick Hits (Injuries, Rosters): Mat Latos (shoulder) felt "fantastic" in a bullpen session, word comes after minor league game Monday … The bearded Brian Wilson (oblique) says he'll be back Wednesday after feeling good in a bullpen session … Zack Greinke (rib) could start throwing off the mound this week … Shane Victorino left Saturday's game after colliding with Ben Francisco, but returned Sunday anyway … In a precautionary measure, Mike Stanton (hamstring) missed Sunday's game … Stephen Drew (abdominal) day-to-dayed his way through the weekend without getting a plate appearance, but remains in that state going forward … Casey Blake wants back in the lineup as soon as he's eligible on Thursday … The team is deciding between John Ely and Tim Redding for their final rotation spot, and the winner might be useful as a spot-starter … Joe Saunders was supposed to pitch in Sunday's snow-out in Arizona, but his spot might get skipped now … Andrew McCutchen (neck) was a late scratch and shouldn't miss much time if any … Matt Dominguez (elbow) will be out four-to-six after being hit in the elbow in a minor league game, says owner Jeffrey Loria … Even though Daniel Murphy started Sunday, his manager said that Brad Emaus should start more than two of every three games going forward … Chase Utley (knee) did some stuff (flips and grounders), and it was the most movement in a while, but who knows what it means … Mike Minor will take Jair Jurrgens' (side) spot in the rotation Sunday and is a good spot start despite taking on Milwaukee … For some reason, the Phillies GM and pitching coach openly discussed (and ridiculed) Ryan Madson's inability to handle the ninth, making Jose Contreras seem safer.

National League Quick Hits (Game Reports): Starlin Castro backed him with three hits and has eight on the young season, but hasn't added another dimension to his fantasy value just yet … Pedro Alvarez collected three hits and three RBi on Sunday, and is mixed-league relevant despite what could be a poor batting average due to his strikeouts … Bud Norris struck out seven batters in four innings but gave up five runs, which sums him up pretty well … Second baseman Danny Espinosa has power and speed, and after two hits Sunday, showed that he might be able to keep the batting average respectable … Skip Schumaker had a couple hits Sunday, but he's pretty much a replacement-level second baseman because of his lack of power or speed … Jon Niese induced a ton of groundballs and even without the upside of a top prospect, he'll be useful … Ricky Nolasco had a good game, and with his strikeout-to-walk ratio, he's got the upside enough to be rostered in almost all mixed leagues … Wandy Rodriguez got blown up, but he started out bad last year … Freddy Sanchez racked up seven hits over the weekend, five were singles … Rick Ankiel hit a homer on Saturday, but seems miscast as a starting every-day center fielder … Pablo Sandoval had four hits - one a home run - over the weekend, but also batted as low as eighth in the order (Friday against lefty Clayton Kershaw) and didn't start Saturday's game (against lefty Ted Lilly); possible platoon situation?

American League Quick Hits (Injuries, Rosters): David Aardsma (hip) looked "lights out" in his bullpen session Sunday and could easily be back this month to destroy Brandon League's short-lived value … In other closer news, Frank Francisco (pectoral) will make his first rehab appearance Thursday and be back by the weekend … Brandon Morrow (forearm) threw two simulated innings and felt fine, so he'll start his rehab … A mid-April return for Grady Sizemore (knee) seems possible now, and he'll be playing in games on Monday … Jake Peavy (shoulder) did well in s simulated game, but will need to pitch a couple more extended spring training games before joining the team … Brian Matusz (intercostal) will be out three-to-six, giving Zach Britton his chance … Derek Holland is now starting on Monday instead of Tuesday, switching spots with Alexi Ogando … Scott Downs (toe) might be back soon, as he's already pitching in simulated games … Joel Piniero (shoulder) will throw long-toss on Tuesday so that the team can decide when he'll be ready to debut … Scott Podsednik (foot) has been struggling with plantr fasciitis all spring training and no-one seems to know when he might be back … Shortstop Erick Aybar was scratched with a little tightness in his side, but will probably be back Tuesday … Luke Scott (groin) wants to be back Wednesday … Rajai Davis (ankle) was a late scratch, but almost made it on the field … Justin Duchscherer (back), a regular here, will have some nerve endings closed in his back and could be back in May … Johnny Damon was a late scratch for his calf, and he might also be a regular here … Jake Westbrook might be droppable in many leagues if his next start doesn't go any better - five walks against three strikeouts doesn't fly in either league.

American League Quick Hits (Game Reports): Alex Rodriguez had a single, two doubles and a home run over the weekend, looking pretty good for a declining veteran … A.J. Burnett found the zone for his debut Saturday, giving up only one free pass … Maybe it wasn't a fluke - Jose Bautista has two home runs in his first three games … Jorge Posada hit two home runs on Sunday and should be able to manage a .270/20/80 year without the catching gear dragging him down … Danny Valencia hit a solo home run in three at-bats, but power is not really his game - just an empty batting average for the most part … Orlando Cabrera has five RBI in his teams first three games, but isn't a mixed league starter … Jason Vargas pitched well against the A's and is useful at home and against bad offenses … Brett Anderson got five strikeouts in six innings, and has massive upside … Edwin Jackson will have runners on all year - he did Saturday, when he gave up nine in six innings and won … Carlos Carrasco is sort of a border-line guy, so don't feel bad dropping him in mixed leagues after he gave up sevens runs against the White Sox in his first start, but he has enough upside to be kept on the bench on deeper rosters … Kyle Drabek was supposed to get the groundballs (11 of em Saturday), but if he improves his major league strikeout rate past his minor league one (7 strikeouts in seven innings Saturday), he'll be really special … Francisco Liriano didn't start out well (reduced velocity, four runs, five walks in 4 1/3 Saturday), but last year was special enough to attempt a buy-low even … After some poor games over the weekend (0-5, 3 Ks Thursday, 0-4 with a strikeout Saturday), Alex Gordon got a vote of confidence from his coach (in the form of a speech about not taking guys out of the lineup), and then went out and collected four hits Sunday.

 

[HacheMan]

Trend It Like Beckham
It's tough to read too much into early-season stats when the MLB co-leaders in at-bats (Alex Gordon, Torii Hunter, Howie Kendrick and Melky Cabrera) each had just 19 of them heading into Monday's games. Similarly, it's not really possible to highlight too many in-season pitching trends when no hurler has made more than one start, and therefore no one has thrown more than the nine innings logged by Felix Hernandez and Jaime Garcia in their stellar first outings of the year.

But reading into recent trends is precisely what we do here at Trendspotting (hence the title), and there are still plenty of them to consider despite the small sample size of a season just now entering its first full week. Let us begin:

SURGING

Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox

Stats: .455 avg (5-for-11) with four runs and two RBI through three games.

Bottom line: Repeating what will be a recurring theme in this week's edition of the column, it's too early to run wild with excitement after a few games. But there are decidedly good vibes emanating from Beckham's general vicinity after he hit .308 with seven homers from July through September last year. After hitting just nine homers in 2010, I'm hopeful that Beckham – who launched 14 dingers in 378 at-bats in 2009 – can carry his power momentum toward something like an 18-homer campaign in 2011.

Jose Lopez, 3B (and soon to be 2B-eligible), Rockies

Stats: .375 avg (3-for-8) with a homer and a steal through two games. (Did I mention that the sample sizes so far are ridiculously small?)

Bottom line: He's very far from an asset in OBP leagues (just .297 for his career in that department, including a putrid .270 last year), but Lopez is just two seasons removed from hitting 25 homers with 96 RBI. Obviously the notion of repeating those numbers is wildly unlikely, but going from Safeco to Coors has power resurgence written all over it. Lopez had just 10 HR in 593 at-bats last season, but now wielding what Todd Helton refers to as "unbelievable bat speed,"* 17-20 dingers should be well within reach for Lopez in 2011.

(*Note: Everyone looks like they have unbelievable bat speed to Todd Helton at age 37.)

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers

Stats: .400 avg (4-for-10) with three homers in three games heading into a Monday night matchup with the Mariners.

Bottom line: The operative word here is health. Kinsler had 31 homers and 31 steals his last fully healthy season in 2009, and I would expect nothing worse than 25-25 (with the upside for more) as long as he's able to play 140-plus games this season.

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers

Stats: .417 avg (5-for-12) with a homer and a steal (and just one strikeout) through four games.

Bottom line: I'm beginning to kick myself for not targeting Kemp more aggressively in my drafts. Despite having a disappointing season he still racked up 28 homers, 89 RBI and 19 steals in 2010, and at age 26 there's a legit chance he posts his best season to date in 2011.

Carlos Lee, OF, Astros

Stats: .364 avg (4-for-11) with a homer and four RBI through three games.

Bottom line: It's nice to see him off to a fast start after posting a career-low 708 OPS (with 24 homers and 89 RBI) in 2010, but it's hard to envision a return to 30-HR, 100-RBI status as Lee approaches age 35 this summer.

Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels

Stats: .368 avg (7-for-19) with three homers through four games.

Bottom line: Kendrick equaled his career-high with 10 homers in 616 at-bats last season, and expecting more than 15 or so this year is probably unrealistic despite the fast start. That said, 15 or so homers to go along with 15-plus steals (he had a career-high 14 last year) would make the Angels' 2B that much more useful of an option. Brandon Phillips (18 homers, 16 steals) was the only 2B to post a 15-15 campaign last year.

STRUGGLING

Alex Rios, OF, White Sox

Stats: 0-for-12 with five strikeouts through three games.

Bottom line: It's silly to read too much into a sample size of just 12 at-bats, but when you look back to last year's monthly splits, there's at least a little bit of cause for concern as far as Rios' power is concerned. After posting a 1.106 OPS with eight homers (and seven steals) during a scalding May 2010, Rios averaged just 2.5 homers over the season's final four months. He's still a useful source of power and speed, but expecting a repeat of last season's 21 homers and career-high 88 RBI is probably unrealistic.

Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds

Stats: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K's and three HR allowed in his first start.

Bottom line: Volquez followed up an ugly spring with a very shaky early portion of his season debut, but eventually quieted down and made it through six relatively reasonable innings. The K/BB ratio is especially encouraging, and I would advise hanging onto Volquez in mixed leagues for now, even if you have to keep him benched until he fully restores our faith.

John Axford, RP, Brewers

Stats: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (27.00 ERA) entering a Monday matchup with Atlanta.

Bottom line: He blew a save in spectacularly ugly fashion on Opening Day, which only compounded concerns coming off a bad spring. Until he proves he can return to the Ax of last year (rather than the 2011 edition, which more closely resembles a butter knife), Takashi Saito is worth carrying on a roster in most leagues.

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies

Stats: 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 HR allowed and just 1 K in his first start.

Bottom line: Don't panic. Jimenez has been dealing with a troublesome cut on his thumb, and though he reportedly could miss Thursday's start, this episode isn't likely to hold back the Rockies' ace from posting another stellar season in 2011.

Editor's Note: For exclusive columns, rankings, projections and more, check out Rotoworld's MLB Season Pass.

Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, OF, Rays

Stats: A combined 1-for-20 through three games.

Bottom line: It's been an ugly start for the Rays' veteran acquisitions, and though I'm far from worried about Ramirez after his 1-for-12 start, I have lost much of my faith in Damon as a useful mixed league asset. To be clear, that's not based on the fact that he started this season 0-for-8, but more on age (37) and the considerable drop-off in his power numbers last year (his eight homers in 2010 represented his worst total since 1997). Unless he somehow rediscovers his wheels after totaling just 23 SB the last two years, Damon does not have the look of a must-own player in mixed leagues.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies

Stats: 0-for-8 through two games.

Bottom line: PANIC. (Just joking.) I actually only mention him here as a reminder that the season is still absurdly young, and as a reminder that none of us should be in panic mode with regard to the established assets on our roster. As the season goes on we can use the trends in this column as cause for concern and/or delight, but for now, the wisest course of action is to remain patient. Which is, of course, far easier said than done.

 

[HacheMan]

Fill-in options for DL-bound Evan Longoria

By Eric Karabell


It's not that big a deal. That's my first reaction as a fantasy baseball owner when a star player has a minor injury. The season is six months long, and any team -- real or fantasy -- should be able to overcome pretty much any loss for a few April weeks. As I blogged Friday, the St. Louis Cardinals will not be eliminated sans outfielder Matt Holliday -- now it appears he could avoid a disabled-list stint -- and the Tampa Bay Rays won't fall apart without third baseman Evan Longoria, who is out for three or more weeks because of an oblique strain.


Longoria, the fourth overall pick in ESPN average live drafts, does play a more scarce fantasy position than Holliday (16th overall pick) in standard leagues, but there remain quite a few decent third base-eligible options available in more than half of ESPN's 10-team mixed leagues. Among them are Maicer Izturis of the Los Angeles Angels, currently second among third basemen on the ESPN Player Rater (Jose Bautista is first) after hitting .353 this past weekend with a home run and a stolen base. Izturis should help more in steals than power, but he is playing regularly, and hey, it's only three weeks out of 26.
Other good long-term replacement options owned in fewer than half of ESPN's leagues include Scott Rolen (awfully underowned at just 48.5 percent), Ty Wigginton, Jhonny Peralta, Chris Johnson, Danny Valencia, Kevin Kouzmanoff and one of my favorites from the less-than-1-percent-owned pile, Brent Morel of the Chicago White Sox. I could actually see Morel threatening double digits in home runs and stolen bases. Alas, Longoria's injury doesn't appear to be so serious that we'll still be discussing it in May. Longoria was placed on the DL on Sunday but should return during the month of April, and this shouldn't affect his swing all summer. Stash him away and enjoy five months of his production, rather than six. As for the Rays, they're actually somewhat well-equipped to handle Longoria's absence, at least in terms of team depth. Veteran Felipe Lopez was called up from Triple-A Durham, but don't expect him to see regular duty. Lopez is not a strong defensive option no matter where you put him, and he's erratic offensively. As I've written previously, the Rays were already juggling extra offensive players, and now this opens up opportunity, it seems, for enticing second baseman Sean Rodriguez, who likely will start at third base on most days.


Rodriguez went virtually unused in the Rays' first two games of the season -- the team was swept at home by the Baltimore Orioles this weekend -- earning just one at-bat (he struck out) in the second game after replacing Longoria. Starting at third base Sunday, he doubled and struck out twice in three at-bats. He is going to swing and miss, but he also hit nine home runs and stole 13 bases in only 343 at-bats last year, and he's a terrific fielder. Rodriguez does his best work against left-handed pitching, and it's possible that manager Joe Maddon will use the switch-hitting Lopez against tough right-handers. But ESPN Fantasy projects Rodriguez for 16 home runs, 11 stolen bases and a .266 batting average, and I view all those figures as eminently reachable, especially now that playing time seems more assured, at least early in the season.
Maddon used Ben Zobrist at second base this weekend, though he could also play his leadoff hitter in right field or at first base. After all, it's not like those options are off to great starts; Matt Joyce and Dan Johnson are a combined 1-for-18, and while it's extremely early, the fact is that a slow start does matter when a team hits an early panic mode and has other options. For example, I might not believe outfielder Desmond Jennings is ready for prime time, but "the next Carl Crawford" doesn't have much left to prove at Triple-A Durham. At this point, I think arbitration status is as much to blame for keeping him in the minors than anything else (though that foolish Johnny Damon signing might have played a part). In theory, when Longoria returns and after Rodriguez hits well the next few weeks, Rodriguez will move to second base and Zobrist could replace Joyce or Johnson; they likely won't get more than a few weeks of opportunity if they don't hit. So in the short term, Longoria's injury means Maddon can keep Rodriguez, Joyce and Johnson as regular players and see who hits. They have three weeks. I suspect Rodriguez will be the superior fantasy option by then, and remember, he's eligible at second base and the outfield, too. Adding third-base eligibility to the mix makes him even better.

 

[HacheMan]

Zach Britton's success is only beginning

Jason Grey

In an opening weekend that featured a number of impressive pitching performances from young hurlers, the one I'm focusing on came from a pitcher who wasn't even supposed to make a start.


After Brian Matusz was forced to the disabled list because of an intercostal strain, the Baltimore Orioles called up top prospect Zach Britton to fill his spot Sunday, and if his first outing is any indication he might not be headed back down.
There was no question Britton was one of the five best (if not the best) pitchers in Orioles camp this spring, posting a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. But the Orioles sent him back to the minors anyway, perhaps to move back his service-time date (which seems to be at the forefront of every decision about adding a prospect to the Opening Day roster these days). The Matusz injury changed that plan, and the 23-year-old southpaw got a quick summons back. He allowed just one run and six baserunners in six innings, with six strikeouts, to pick up the win in Tampa Bay.

A third-round pick in the 2006 draft as a projectable high schooler from Texas, Britton allowed just seven homers in 153 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season, posting sub-3.00 ERAs at both stops. He tore up two levels of Class-A ball in the two seasons before that. His success was thanks in large part to what many scouts feel is the best sinker in the minors, a pitch with sharp, late movement that has enabled him to post a ground ball rate higher than 60 percent in his minor league career. To put that number in perspective, only Tim Hudson and Justin Masterson hit that level in the majors last season, with Derek Lowe finishing just under that threshold. Britton also can bring some velocity when he needs to. He can dial up his fastball to the mid-90s with a straight four-seamer when he needs to give a different look and/or throw a strike.
But the key for Britton has been the progression and development of his secondary pitches, and it was evident in his start against an admittedly banged-up Rays team Sunday. Simply put, he's not a one-trick pony.
Britton scrapped a curveball in favor of a slider before the 2008 season, and he took to the pitch quickly. The slider plays off the sinker better than his curve; it has nice tilt and gives him that good breaking ball a left-hander needs to neutralize left-handed hitters. Britton also has a changeup that has made rapid strides. The pitch has good "fade," and it gives him an out pitch against opposite-side batters, instead of just trying to limit their good contact with the sinker. So we're talking about a lefty with three potential weapons.
As I said even before spring training, Britton's raw stuff is there, and while he did need a little more overall polish and command, his simple, repeatable delivery should allow that to develop. We saw evidence of that Sunday. Early on, Britton was having problems throwing his sinker for strikes, so he had to fall back on his secondary pitches and four-seamers a lot more often. He was able to locate them well, and they accounted for half his strikeouts.
"[At first] I was disappointed that I didn't have the sinker," Britton told the team website reporter. "But the guys were like, 'Hey, think about it. You can pitch here without your best pitch.' And that's something I'll take out of [Opening Day]."
The young southpaw worked quickly and aggressively, getting himself out of a couple of jams. He hit as high as 95 mph on the gun and was still firing 93 in the sixth inning as he approached 100 pitches, capping off his outing by getting a fastball in on Manny Ramirez's hands to induce a harmless popout and making Kelly Shoppach look silly on three straight off-speed pitches.
Many fantasy owners have expressed concerns about Britton's modest strikeout rate (just a little more than seven strikeouts per nine innings) in the high minors last season, wondering aloud whether he'll have the ability to maintain solid strikeout rates as a big sinkerballer. But I don't think that'll be an issue. With more experience and refinement of his secondary pitches, Britton won't have to lean on the sinker as much as he did in the minors. In essence, the improvement of just one or two of his pitches makes all of them better. Britton has shown he has the stuff to get his share of swings and misses, and I think he'll maintain a decent strikeout rate.
I thought enough of Britton to make him my last reserve pick in our final staff mock draft (10-team mixed league) last week. His ability to keep the ball down will help limit the damage from his mistakes -- that's important for an AL East pitcher -- and allow him to have success right away. Fellow youngsters Chris Tillman and Matt Harrison might have put up slightly gaudier numbers this past weekend, but Britton would be the one I'd want. Now, when Matusz returns and when (if?) Justin Duchscherer is ready to rejoin the rotation, there could be a logjam that could conceivably get Britton caught up in a numbers game, at least temporarily. That's my only concern with him right now. But that scenario is probably a month away, and things can change during that time. Britton can be a true asset, even in mixed leagues, this season if the O's just give him the ball every fifth day and let him run with it.

 

[HacheMan]

Nelson Cruz Cruises to History
Last night's NCAA championship game between Connecticut and Butler was a major letdown, but luckily the six games on the baseball schedule were more than enough to keep us occupied. In fact, there was probably more excitement in this double play by Jack Wilson than anything I saw in the title game. But I digress.

We've seen our share of hot bats in the first few days of the season, but nobody is punishing pitchers quite like Nelson Cruz of the Rangers. He went deep last night against Erik Bedard, homering in his fourth straight game to begin the year. He's just the third player ever to do it and the first from the American League. Willie Mays hit one in each of the Giants' first four games to begin the 1971 season while Mark McGwire did it in his 70-homer season in 1998.

If a hot start from Cruz sounds familiar, you're absolutely right. The 30-year-old outfielder hit five home runs in his first seven games last season and seven over his first 11 before injuring his right hamstring. It ended up being a lingering issue for Cruz, who made three trips to the disabled list and totaled 22 homers and 18 stolen bases over just 108 games.

We're still somewhat worried about Cruz's ability to stay on the field for a full season, but there's little doubt that he has the potential to be one of the game's most valuable fantasy outfielders. If he can stay healthy, 30-plus homers and 20 stolen bases are well within reach.

While we hope Cruz's hamstring issues are a thing of the past, here are some more news and notes from a light first Monday of the regular season schedule.

- The Braves ruined the Brewers' home opener Monday afternoon, getting solo home runs from Martin Prado and Dan Uggla off Takashi Saito in the top of the eighth inning to pave the way for a thrilling 2-1 comeback win. The loss dropped the Brewers to an ugly 0-4 start.

Of more importance to fantasy owners, rookie fireballer Craig Kimbrel got the ball in the bottom of the ninth and struck out the side for his third career save and second of the young season. After an electric performance down the stretch last season (0.44 ERA and 40/16 K/BB ratio over 20 2/3 innings), the 22-year-old right-hander has struck out five out of the first six batters he has faced so far in 2011.

Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said during spring training that Kimbrel would share save chances with Jonny Venters in the early part of the season, but he told reporters over the weekend that he changed his mind on Opening Day. We don't quite buy his timeline of events, but the important thing to know is that Kimbrel is the main man in this situation and should owned in all formats. No excuses here.

- How about those red-hot Orioles? They took their home-opener Monday against the Tigers by the score of 5-1 and are now 4-0 for the first time since 1997. By the way, that's also the last time the Orioles were in the playoffs.

There's no way they'll be able to keep this up, but including six innings of one-run ball from Jake Arrieta on Monday, Orioles' starting pitchers have allowed just two runs over 26 innings (0.69 ERA) to begin the season. Pretty impressive, especially considering that Brian Matusz is on the shelf for the next few weeks due to a strained intercostal muscle.

It's fair to say that the Orioles' offense is going to be better this season -- after all, they finished second from the bottom in the American League in runs scored in 2010, so it won't take much -- but I think they'll need to see at least two of their young pitchers make a major step forward this season in order to have any realistic shot at contention. I'm still skeptical about their chances, but who knows?

Speaking of their pitchers, right-hander Jeremy Guthrie was diagnosed with a form of pneumonia and will not make his scheduled start Wednesday against the Tigers. Brad Bergesen will start in his place, but the hope is that Guthrie will be ready to start Sunday against the Rangers.

National League Quick HIts: Carlos Pena is day-to-day with a mild sprain of his right thumb … Andrew McCutchen (neck) homered in his return to the starting lineup Monday …Stephen Drew is "getting closer" to returning to returning from an abdominal injury, according to Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson … Chris Narveson tossed six shutout innings against the Braves on Monday, but was handed a no-decision … Carlos Marmol earned his second save of the season Monday, one day after blowing a save opportunity … Charlie Morton tossed six innings of one-run ball in a win over the Cardinals on Monday … The Brewers have no timetable for Corey Hart's return from an oblique muscle injury … Vicente Padilla (elbow) threw 60 pitches in a minor league rehab game Sunday … Jon Garland (oblique) hopes to return from the disabled list this week …The Astros re-signed lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith to a minor league contract … Reds prospect catcher Yasmani Grandal will begin the season with High-A Bakersfield …

American League Quick HIts: Elvis Andrus hit a home run Monday for the first time since September 2, 2009 …The Athletics have flip-flopped their rotation so that Brandon McCarthy will make his season debut Tuesday and Dallas Braden will pitch Wednesday … Erik Bedard gave up five runs -- three earned -- over five innings against the Rangers on Monday in his first MLB start since July of 2009 … Jake Peavy will pitch in a minor league rehab game with Double-A Birmingham on Friday … Brandon Webb (shoulder) hit three batters during a live batting practice session Monday … Jeff Suppan signed a minor league contract with the Royals and will report to Triple-A Omaha … Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez each homered in Monday's win over the Twins … Derek Holland yielded three runs over six innings in a win over the Mariners on Monday … Grady Sizemore (knee) will play for Triple-A Columbus in an exhibition game against Ohio State on Tuesday … Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the struggling Scott Kazmir is on a "short leash" with the Angels …