To open the fourth annual installment of the top fantasy prospects in baseball, let me quote the sentence I used to lead off last year's edition: The objective is to win now.
As such, this prospect rankings list will look a little different than other top-prospects lists because its purpose is different. I'm not taking the "long" view and examining a player's potential to help you over the next few seasons. Rather, this list has a narrower scope. I'm looking at the prospects who can help your team for the 2011 season, and just the 2011 season. I'm not considering 2012, 2013 or any years beyond the current one.
That takes some of the focus off pure talent and places a lot more of it on big league playing time. The objective is to determine which players are assured of regular major league at-bats, starts or appearances; which players have the best chance to get them if they don't have it already; and then combining that with their chances to do something productive with those at-bats/innings/appearances for a fantasy squad. If I didn't see any scenario in which a player would get at-bats this season, that guy didn't make this list, because he is of no use to you non-keeper-league owners.
For example, my two top-rated hitting prospects over the long haul are the Nationals' Bryce Harper and the Angels' Mike Trout. However, as much as I love their offensive potential, neither player is likely to see the big leagues this season, at least before a (possible) September call-up, so there is little value there in single-season formats, and we're not concerned with keeper leagues for this exercise. Similarly, the Royals are loaded right now with a stable of quality starting pitching prospects. While it's certainly possible that a couple of them will join the big league rotation as soon as this year, there really is no need for the team to rush them. At best, we might see them for limited innings -- limited enough that they have negligible fantasy impact.
So now that I've made it abundantly clear this is all about 2011, and that playing time is the key for fantasy purposes, it's important to note that there are many unpredictable variables that determine which players will ascend to the big leagues and when. Sometimes it's because of injuries to big league starters, or maybe there's just a spot open for a minor leaguer to step up. Nobody really saw Brennan Boesch being a fantasy factor in the first half of last season (even if he did very little in the second half), or Jonny Venters and Neil Walker having as much value as they did, but sometimes players happen into an unforeseen opportunity and take advantage of it. Other times, players with premium talent ascend into a major league role a touch sooner than expected, such as Mike Stanton and Starlin Castro last season. I try to balance projected playing time with a player's upside.
Also, try not to get too hung up on why Player X is ranked two spots ahead of Player Y, especially as we get further down the list. In many cases, the differences aren't that great. Often it's just because of the playing-time factor, not necessarily because someone is a better prospect or has more upside than those below him in the rankings. Player X might just have a clearer path to at-bats or a rotation job. Sometimes all it takes is one camp injury and a player can rocket up the list, and that's why these rankings can change month to month or even week to week, especially during spring training. This represents my viewpoint as of March 1.
You might decide that a lower-ranked player is the one you would choose as a matter of personal preference, or because it's a level of risk you are more willing to tolerate, or because that player's potential category contributions fit your team better, or because you want to focus more on the player with the biggest upside. That's fine. Season the list to your taste, and focus more on the write-ups of the players rather than the number next to their names.
One last note: A player needs to have maintained his rookie status to appear here, which means he has not: (A) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (B) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of the 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list). Thus, players who might still be perceived as prospects, such as Carlos Carrasco (too many big league innings) or Ryan Kalish (too many big league at-bats) are ineligible.
Without further ado, let's get to the top 50 fantasy prospects for the 2011 season:
1. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: One of the reasons Matt Garza was dealt this offseason was that the Rays knew they had a big league-ready Hellickson to step in for him. "Hellboy" has drawn comparisons to David Cone from some scouts (though with a little less velocity), and that's mighty high praise. Hellickson locates his low-90s fastball on both sides of the plate, has a "plus" circle changeup to use against big league lefties and an above-average spike curve that he can drop in for strikes or make a chase pitch. He even started showing a little feel for a new cutter last season. Hellickson has a history of excelling in the minors over the past five years, and there's a very good chance he'll hit the ground running this season. It's not out of the question that he'll offer the returns of a top-50 starter this year, given his command, polish and strike-throwing ability. The only blemish is that he'll probably give up a decent number of homers -- being in the AL East won't help him there -- but If you're going to invest in a rookie hurler, this is a good place to start.
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: Despite being only 21 years old, Freeman is expected to take over starting first-base duties for the Braves on Opening Day. He certainly earned the opportunity with a strong campaign at Triple-A Gwinnett last season -- he rebounded from a hand injury that caused a poor finish to his 2009 season to post a .319 AVG/.378 OBP/.521 SLG stat line, virtually identical to the stat line he put up in low Class A in his first professional season -- despite being the second-youngest regular in the league. He's unlikely to provide premium power at a power-packed position, but he can hit 20 homers, post a good batting average and solid on-base percentage and hit a lot of doubles. At times he looks a little stiff and uncoordinated, but he still manages to hit well, and he's also an above-average defender at first, with an arm you usually see at third base or in right field.
3. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays: The 25-year-old Arencibia hit .301 with 32 homers and a .986 OPS in just 412 Triple-A at-bats last season. Granted, he played his home games in a hitter-friendly park -- and a hitter-friendly league -- but Arencibia has always had plus power. He drew just 44 walks compared to 215 strikeouts in 976 combined at-bats in 2008 and 2009, but he also hit 48 homers. His on-base percentage is likely never going to be high in the big leagues, and his strikeout rate will be high, but fantasy owners are always looking for good power numbers from the catcher position, and this dead-pull hitter with a tendency to overswing can certainly supply that. The Jays plan to give him a chance to take the job and run with it despite some deficiencies defensively, and he has the capability to put up a 20-homer season right now if you can live with his low batting average and on-base percentage. Given that just four catchers managed to reach the 20-homer mark last season, that pop definitely gives him fantasy value.
4. Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: Drabek can hit the mid-90s with his fastball when he needs to, and his curve is a major league out pitch. He also gets ground balls in bunches with the movement on his two-seamer, a helpful survival tool in the AL East, and a new cutter helped him handle lefties much better. He got better as the season went along at Double-A, with his best pitching coming down the stretch, putting him on the fast track to the big leagues (he wound up making three late-season starts).
The 23-year-old is a favorite to break camp with the big club, and he should do more than just survive in Toronto's rotation. A small investment should have a nice return in AL leagues. There will be some growing pains -- Drabek will go through stretches in which his command and control wander -- but there will be more good than bad. In fact, he could rapidly improve his consistency, since he has shown he can repeat his delivery better and lean on that two-seamer. I freely admit I was not always on the Drabek bandwagon, but the improvements he has made in his game over the past year have firmly changed my mind.
5. Danny Espinosa, SS, Nationals: A shortstop out of Long Beach State like Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki and Bobby Crosby before him, Espinosa, a third-round pick in the 2008 draft, will open the year as the Nationals' second baseman after a year in which he was just one of three minor leaguers to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases, an enticing profile for fantasy owners. The 6-foot switch-hitter has a lean, athletic build with strength and doesn't get cheated when he swings, producing good bat speed. He might not hit for a high average -- his swing can get a little long -- but he does have homer power.
Espinosa did have surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in the offseason, and normally that would be more of a concern, but doctors found out he actually broke it two seasons ago, after which it healed on its own before he broke it again. That means he was still hitting for pop despite troubles with his hand, which gives him a good chance to keep doing so after having the problem corrected. He has only average speed, but is a smart, aggressive runner with good instincts and should be good for 15 steals over a full season. Like I said, his batting average could be a bit iffy, but his job is fairly secure, and you'll take teens homer power and speed at a middle-infield position, no doubt.
6. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves: Will he throw strikes with regularity? That's the big question regarding Kimbrel, because nobody can question his stuff. He was ridiculous at the end of last season, striking out 23 batters over his final 12 frames, throwing strikes and averaging just less than 15 strikeouts per nine overall in his 20-plus big league innings. That said, this is the same guy who averaged almost six walks per nine innings in his minor league career; you were never quite sure whether the Kimbrel you were seeing that day was the one that was "on."
Kimbrel comes from a three-quarters delivery and generally sits in the 93-95 mph range with his fastball, which has outstanding movement (it tails in on righty hitters). In fact, the ball appears to stay up and defy gravity. It's a little tough to pick up, and on occasion he has dialed it up higher. Then again, at times he also has had to back it down to the 90-92 mph range just to locate it. You can call his breaking ball whatever you want -- scouts generally call it a slider, Kimbrel calls it a curve -- but batters simply call it nasty. One other scout referred to the pitch as a "knuckle-slurve," and it does seem to fit since it has tight sweep across the strike zone. When he's on, Kimbrel is just plain unhittable, and he has that aggressive streak you want from a closer. So it all comes down to his consistency from outing to outing.
Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has said that Kimbrel and Jonny Venters will be "co-closers" to start the season until one of them takes over the job, but you do get the sense that Kimbrel is the man the Braves would like to see there. They want him to take the job and run with it, and he likely will get the first opportunity, but he'll have to show enough consistency within the strike zone to keep it. His stuff is as closer-worthy as anyone you will find, but the first thing a stopper must do is throw strikes.
7. Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves: One of the reasons the Braves took Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft was because he was a polished college pitcher who could move up quickly, and that's exactly what he did. It wasn't exactly the "Mike Leake fast track" to the big leagues (no minor leagues), but it wasn't far off; he made the big leagues after just 25 minor league starts. He fanned 109 batters in 87 innings at Double-A, and another 37 in 33 innings at Triple-A (with a 1.89 ERA), before getting the call.
A bit of increased velocity has helped him. Both as an amateur and at the Arizona Fall League in 2009 he was a low-90s guy, but he was dialing it up to 92-94 mph last season before running out of gas a little at the end of the year. However, it wasn't just velocity that put Minor on the fast track the big leagues. His pitch command and ability to throw all three of his pitches for strikes, mixing them up and keeping hitters off-balance, are what set him apart. His "plus" changeup gives him a good weapon versus right-handed hitters, and his curve developed a more consistent break last season and got more swings and misses. Minor is the favorite to win the fifth starter job in Atlanta this year, and should have success right away.
8. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: The starting right-field job in Philly is there for the taking with Jayson Werth now in Washington, and though manager Charlie Manuel has said the job "is up for grabs," Brown may be the favorite to be there on Opening Day. He hit .327 with a .980 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last year before getting a late-season audition. His tools, athleticism and raw ability have always been obvious to scouts and onlookers, and as he has grown into his 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame, he has become less awkward and uncoordinated. The improved body control has allowed him to take better advantage of his considerable natural gifts. His swing also became more consistent last season; he stayed back better and got more consistent leverage. Possessing great speed, he projects to hit for both average and power. He has the speed to post 20-steal seasons, but right now he steals bases mostly with just his raw speed; he still needs to learn the nuances of reading pitches and getting good jumps.
There are still questions about Brown's ability to handle big league-quality secondary stuff at this stage of his career -- he can get too aggressive and get himself out -- and it's very possible he could start slow, or be back at Triple-A with Ben Francisco starting and giving Brown a little more development time. Brown is working on some setup and swing adjustments in camp, and is off to a slow start in early spring games. But his athletic ability and talent likely will earn him the job at some point, and they make him worth betting on because of the potential for across-the-board fantasy production.
9. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds: The Reds will leave Chapman and his triple-digit heater in the bullpen for now, which will limit his fantasy utility somewhat. However, focusing on airing it out and just using a two-pitch combo is going to result in a ton of swings and misses. Although his slider goes through periods in which it acts more like a cutter, most of the time it's just plain filthy, and we know he can get K's off the fastball alone. If the Reds decided to stretch him out later as a starter, he could succeed there as well, working in the mid-to-high 90s and mixing in a passable changeup, although Chapman certainly has the stuff to succeed as a two-pitch starter, even though he had problems going deep into games in the minors last season.
Quality setup men with big-time strikeout ability have more fantasy value than many fantasy owners realize, especially in single-league formats, not to mention the saves upside that Chapman has if aging closer Francisco Cordero gets hurt or implodes. The Reds have enough starting pitching depth that I don't expect Chapman to move from a bullpen role this season, but he'll have value even if he doesn't.
10. Chris Sale, RP, Chicago White Sox: All offseason, the question surrounding Sale was what his role would be in 2011. Would the team try to stretch him out as a starter? However, it was announced early in camp that Sale will be in the bullpen this year, which does make him a saves sleeper, even with Matt Thornton expected to step into the closer role. It's probably the right role for Sale; his stuff plays up there, and there are questions as to whether his delivery would allow him to hold up as a starter.
It's also a better thing for fantasy owners because it gives him a better chance to have an impact this season. That will be the key, and that makes him one of the bigger wild cards entering fantasy drafts. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen likes Sale and his upper-90s fastball and nasty slider so much that he hinted on multiple occasions in the offseason that he was leaning toward Sale as the closer and Thornton continuing to be a great setup man, although he did back off that as camp opened. Despite having just 10 innings of minor league experience before reaching the major leagues, Sale is ready to get hitters out right now in a relief role. It's just a question of whether that role will be in the eighth or ninth inning. High-strikeout setup men can still have great utility in fantasy, and Sale definitely fits the bill there. And as noted before, he has saves potential if Thornton gets hurt or Guillen changes his mind.
11. Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners: This 22-year-old righty didn't get much attention before last season started, largely because of an elbow problem that limited him to just 47 1/3 innings in 2009, all but three of them at high Class A. But he was dominant in Double-A in his first 13 starts of 2010, with 78 strikeouts and just 17 walks and one homer in 77 innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he finished the year with a 76-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 62 1/3 innings.
Pineda is a big right-hander with a live arm -- he can dial it up to 97 mph -- and there's some deception in his delivery that makes the ball hard to pick up out his hand. It's not just the velocity, though; he has a heavy ball that is tough to get the barrel of the bat on due to its life, and he can command it on both sides of the plate. He also features a mid-80s slider with short break that works well off the fastball movement, and there is promise in his mid-80s changeup, which has split-like action. He can throw it for strikes, but he needs to gain a little more trust in it and feel for it.
Pineda projects as a solid No. 2 starter in the big leagues. He's ready to contribute now thanks to his fastball, though he probably needs a bit more polish on his secondary stuff and still must learn to repeat his delivery better. The Mariners don't have any need to rush him, so they'll probably wait a couple of months for service-time reasons, but he's arguably their second-best starter right now, and we'll see him before too long. Target him in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.
12. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays' signings of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez likely will push Jennings back to Triple-A for now, giving him a little more development time. Jennings' fantasy profile is similar to that of former Rays All-Star Carl Crawford, even if they aren't quite the same type of player. One negative, though: Jennings must prove he can stay healthy for a full season. He has a lengthy injury history dating back to his amateur days, including wrist and shoulder injuries last season that limited his ability to drive the ball. We know Jennings can get on base, and we know he can run -- he stole a combined 89 bases (in 100 attempts) the past two seasons -- but he also must show that persistent problems with his left shoulder won't continue. The nagging shoulder injury could prevent him from developing the teens-homers pop he's capable of.
Make no mistake about it: Jennings will bring the steals when he plays, and he has a good chance of hitting for average right away, given his good approach at the plate, his contact skills and his ability to utilize his speed to leg out infield hits. While he likely won't be a fantasy factor for perhaps half the season, he should steal bases in bunches when he arrives and make a big impact in that category down the stretch.
13. Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants: Belt, a fifth-round pick in the 2009 draft, seemingly came out of nowhere to post a monster season (a combined .352 batting average and 1.075 OPS) across three levels last year. The Giants altered his stance and cut out some of the excess movement in his swing to help him tap into his raw power better and more consistently, and he took off from there. Although Belt stole 22 bases last year, it won't be a part of his game at the big league level, as he doesn't have above-average speed. He stole a number of bags early in the year simply by taking advantage of Class A pitchers not paying attention to him. Fantasy owners won't mind the projected lack of steals, though, given Belt's potential to hit for both average and power.
I've been impressed with the quality of Belt's at-bats, his ability to generate power without overswinging and his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. He is probably ready to hit big league pitching right now, but there really aren't any openings at the moment at either first base or left field, a position he is athletic enough to handle, if necessary. Still, just like fellow Giant Buster Posey in 2010, Belt could be a fantasy factor immediately upon call-up. He could help owners over the final four months of the season, especially if Pat Burrell isn't able to replicate his late-2010 success. On pure potential for this season, Belt wouldn't rank this low. It's just a question of how quickly he can work his way into the mix, given the veterans ahead of him. I wrote more about Belt's development and the changes in his swing that propelled him to his breakout campaign in a late-October blog.
14. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, SS, Minnesota Twins: Nishioka will be the starting second baseman for the Twins this season after signing a three-year deal to come over from Japan, where he played shortstop. Last year he had 206 hits in the Japan Pacific League, second in its history only to Ichiro Suzuki's 210 in 1994. The switch-hitter makes excellent contact and should provide a good batting average, and he stole 20-plus bases each of the past two seasons in Japan (albeit not at a great percentage, which means 20 steals in the States this year might be a stretch). It's worth noting, however, that the 26-year-old has had some injury issues in his career, so health might be an issue.
We tend to get enamored when a shiny new toy (such as Nishioka) is added to the player pool, but be careful not to expect too much here. He'll play every day, will likely bat in the two-hole and does possess some decent skills, so he does have value. A .280 average with regular at-bats and a teens steal total has its uses, especially in single-league formats. But you'll need to find pop elsewhere.
15. Jake McGee, RP, Tampa Bay Rays: Of the current options the Rays have in their remade bullpen to compete for the closer role, the 24-year-old McGee is the one with the biggest upside, and he could emerge with the job sooner rather than later. After working as a starter in his minor league career, he was moved to the bullpen last season to get his arm to the majors a little quicker. For now, that's where he stays, although a return to the rotation is still possible down the road. Regardless, this is the kind of premium arm you like to take a chance on, regardless of role. The lefty's fastball/power curve (some call it a slider, due to its action) combo will work well out of the bullpen. His mid-90s heater has enough life to get swings and misses on its own; that's a good sign for his chances to succeed at the big league level and maintain his high minor league strikeout rates, as there are nights his breaking ball will be inconsistent and get "slurvy." While the other closer options all have health or effectiveness concerns, McGee's issues are only youth and inexperience. Simply put, he has a big league arm and can get outs now in a prominent role. Andrew Bailey, John Axford and Neftali Feliz all established themselves as closers as rookies, and McGee could do the same if given the opportunity.
McGee already told the St. Petersburg Times this spring that he wants the ball in the ninth, saying he could handle it. Upon hearing that, Joe Maddon said, "He said that? Good for him. I think that's great. I love it." Then the manager went on to praise the poise McGee showed in his big league debut last season, no small trait for a pitcher working the ninth. Watch those spring reports closely. 16. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels: The spotlight is on this talented prospect after the club's trade of Mike Napoli (in the Vernon Wells deal). As much as Angels manager Mike Scioscia loves Jeff Mathis' defense, Conger is now in line to at least share some of the catching at-bats this season, and his patient approach and ability to make solid contact -- he has hit .300 in each of his past three minor league seasons -- should help him have success at the plate right away. The switch-hitter doesn't have a ton of power, but he can reach double digits in homers, and the 23-year-old also has made some strides defensively over the past couple of seasons, though his throwing still needs improvement. He has the profile for a usable batting average and a little pop, making him a definite sleeper option in AL-only formats. He's going to hit; it's just a question of how many at-bats he will get, given Scioscia's affection for the non-hitting parts of Mathis' game.
17. Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: A converted catcher, Jansen pitched a combined 45 innings in the minors last season, striking out 78 batters and allowing no homers. The performance got him a call to the majors, where he didn't miss a beat. He picked up four saves for the Dodgers while still not allowing the ball to leave the yard (in 27 innings), thanks to a high-90s fastball with riding life in the zone. His slider is a bit inconsistent, but it does have a two-plane break when it's on, so it can be a "plus" offering at times. He's still relatively new to pitching, so he needs more polish and must learn to control his tendency to overthrow, but his raw stuff is good enough to get him results right now.
Given some of the question marks surrounding projected Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton after his poor finish to the season last year, and Hong-Chih Kuo's lengthy injury history, it would not be a shock to see Jansen finishing the season as the Dodgers closer. He has the stuff; he just needs the opportunity. Even in a setup role, he could still have fantasy value, given his ability to make batters miss. I wrote more about Jansen (with video) and his ascension to the big leagues when he was called up last year.
18. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees: Montero is pretty much ready to hit big league pitching for both average and power, thanks to his freakishly strong hands and wrists. It's just a question of when he will get the opportunity to get regular at-bats. He was batting .229 with just three homers after the first two months of the Triple-A season in 2010, but he made adjustments and went on a tear, hitting .351 and slugging .694 over the second half of the season, continuing to show a feel for putting the barrel of the bat on the ball, which he has had since becoming a pro. He also proved capable of hitting with power to the opposite field when pitchers tried to work away against him.
Montero is still a below-average catcher defensively, with many scouts questioning whether he will ever be adequate enough behind the plate. That doesn't help his case for playing time, and the presence of Russell Martin means the Yankees don't have to rush Montero just to fill a need. His best chance for at-bats -- assuming he's not included in a trade at some point, as he almost was last year for Cliff Lee -- might be if the aging Jorge Posada gets hurt again, opening up the DH slot. Montero also could just plain hit his way into big league at-bats by raking at Triple-A to the point that the Yanks couldn't ignore his production anymore. He's ranked this low only because of the uncertainty surrounding his 2011 playing time, not because of his potential, which is right up there among the best hitting prospects in the minors. 19. Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore Orioles: One of the best pitching prospects in the game, the left-handed Britton can touch the mid-90s when he needs to, but his game is built around a nasty sinker that is arguably the best in the minors. His career ground-ball rate is higher than 60 percent as a pro. He also throws a sharp-breaking slider that is effective against lefties, but it has been the development of his changeup that has made Britton a big-time prospect. That pitch gives him the weapon he needs against right-handed hitters (differentiating him from an extreme ground-ball specialist such as Justin Masterson, who has nothing to get opposite-side batters out). Britton's overall command just needs a little polishing, and the 23-year-old's simple, repeatable delivery should allow him to do that. He allowed just seven homers in 153 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season, posting sub-3.00 ERAs at both stops.
As is the case for many of the top prospects these days, we might not see Britton until the second half of the season, for service-time reasons if nothing else, and the AL East is a notoriously unforgiving environment to break into. But this is a guy to stash away in AL leagues. He's a potential No. 2 starter down the road, and his sinker gives him a chance to have success right away.
20. Cory Luebke, SP, San Diego Padres: A former supplemental first-round pick, Luebke lived up to that lofty draft position in 2010, posting a 2.68 ERA in 114 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He featured an improved changeup and more consistent slider last season, as he repeated his delivery better. He throws all of his pitches for strikes and has solid life on his fastball, locating it on both sides of the plate, and he mixes up his pitches well. He's a sleeper starter in NL-only play, given his polish, what should be a good defense behind him and his favorable home park, even if he lacks the ceiling of some other rookie hurlers.
He doesn't have the upside of fellow Padres prospects Simon Castro or Casey Kelly, but he's ready to get outs in the big leagues right now, and likely will get a chance to do so as the club's fifth starter, which means he has the best chance among the three for 2011 value.
21. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners: The No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft is likely to start the year in Triple-A, presumably to continue working on his defense at second base, though delaying his "major league clock" (service time) is likely the primary reason. However, he has an excellent chance to be the Mariners' starting second baseman by midseason.
Ackley had a tendency to "drift" at the plate when he first started pro ball, not getting a good load or hitting with a firm front side, which caused him to hook and flare the ball. But by the second half of last season, he was doing a better job of staying back and getting some carry on the ball, to go along with a batting eye that allowed him to draw almost as many walks as strikeouts in the minors last year. With his "plus" speed, steals should become a bigger part of Ackley's game, too. He had a breakout campaign in the Arizona Fall League -- he was stinging line drives all over the place -- that included him winning the MVP award there, showing off the hand-eye coordination and feel for getting the barrel of the bat on the ball that made him such a high draft pick. Fantasy-wise, he's capable of hitting .280 or above with double-digit steals, even if he doesn't arrive until June. That makes him a solid player for AL-only leagues when he gets the starting job, and maybe mixed leagues once he settles in. I wrote about him in more detail during the AFL (with video).
22. Jordan Walden, RP, Los Angeles Angels: Projected Angels closer Fernando Rodney could implode at any time, and even after the team's signing of Scott Downs, Walden could be very much in the closer mix. In fact, that is the role the hard-throwing righty is being groomed for, given his premium stuff. It's just a question of whether Walden has harnessed his control enough for the "future" to begin now.
Walden touches triple digits with a very heavy ball that is tough to elevate and gets lots of grounders when he's not punching guys out. We're talking nasty movement here. His slider is still inconsistent but solid. He just needs to show he can throw strikes reasonably consistently and gain some experience. The Angels made a young fireballer their closer once before with Francisco Rodriguez, and they could do the same with Walden. For those interested in reading more about Walden, I discussed him in more detail in this blog entry, including a sample of a big league-style pro scouting report on the 20-to-80 scouting scale from when I saw him in 2007, and how he has changed (or not changed) since then.
23. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: The second overall pick in the 2007 draft restored some luster to his prospect status in 2010 with the monster breakout season we had been waiting for. He hit 36 homers combined between Double- and Triple-A to tie for the minor league lead. He learned to be more selectively aggressive, doing a better job at waiting for pitches he had a chance to punish, made better use of the ferocious bat speed that made him such a high pick in the first place, and he hit for power to all fields without sacrificing contact. He also put to rest concerns that some of his production at Double-A was driven by his home park -- he hit 17 of his 21 homers at home, and had a slugging percentage almost 500 points higher at home than on the road -- by hitting 15 homers in just 52 games after being promoted to Triple-A.
A service-time delay likely will keep Moustakas in the minors for the first couple of months of the 2011 season; he'll work on tightening up his approach against southpaws a little more. Still, he could be in the Royals' starting lineup by the second half of the season, and he bears close watching given the relative thinness of the third-base pool this year, especially if he starts handling southpaws better.
24. Brent Morel, 3B, Chicago White Sox: Morel is not assured of winning the third-base job in Chicago, but considering he only has to beat out Mark Teahen at this point, there's a good chance he'll do so. He is one of those players who can be serviceable in fantasy play if he has a regular job but doesn't have the pop you're looking for from a third baseman. His value is likely going to be driven mostly by his batting average. He could be useful in AL-only leagues, but he might lack the offensive upside for mixed-league utility. However, as I mentioned before, this is a year in which the third-base position isn't exactly deep compared to past seasons, making Morel worth at least monitoring. I went into more detail (with video) about Morel and his offensive potential in this blog entry.
25. Ivan Nova, SP, New York Yankees: Nova is one of the favorites to win one of the currently open spots at the back end of the Yankees' rotation after acquitting himself fairly well in a late-season audition last year, although he did have trouble going deep into games. The 24-year-old can dial up his fastball into the mid-90s, and has two usable secondary pitches to go with it: a hard curveball that can be a plus pitch when he's commanding it, and a changeup that he has shown some feel for, though it lacks consistency. The arsenal is there. It's just a matter of him throwing a few more strikes now that he has gotten his feet wet in the big leagues and sharpening his overall command by repeating his delivery better and not letting his mechanics wander in the middle of a start. But given the potential quality of his repertoire, he could have a little more value in AL-only play than most owners realize if he wins a starting spot.
26. Jordan Lyles, SP, Houston Astros: A supplemental first-round pick in the 2008 draft, this 6-4 right-hander skipped right over the high-Class A level last year and made six starts at Triple-A before his 20th birthday. He was the only teenager in the Pacific Coast League, so he is clearly on the fast track for a team seeking rotation depth. Lyles has solid command of his low-90s fastball, spotting it all over the zone, along with two advanced secondary pitches. His five-pitch mix keeps hitters guessing and makes him a pitcher to watch. He's a great athlete, which allows him to repeat his clean delivery well and throw strikes.
Despite his age, there's not a ton more "projectability" here, but there's still a little more room for growth. He's likely not going to have that big strikeout upside you'd like out of a prospect pitcher, but he can be a workhorse who will get a lot of outs in the big leagues. He's battling for the fifth starter's job in camp, and even if he doesn't win it right away, he's likely going to be a big league factor sooner rather than later.
27. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins: Gibson, a first-round pick in 2009, was expected to move through the minors quickly but didn't play after signing in 2009 because of a stress fracture in his forearm. He made up for lost time last year, though, advancing three levels to finish the year at Triple-A, posting a combined 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP along the way.
The Twins' rotation is full to start the season, but Gibson could work his way into the picture by the second half if he keeps pitching the way he has been. The Twins have generally been patient with their starting pitching prospects, as current starters Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing all had to get starts under their belts at Triple-A, as did ones who have failed to establish themselves, such as Jeff Manship, Glen Perkins and Anthony Swarzak. As such, considering Gibson has just three starts at Triple-A, we should probably be conservative in his big league innings estimate. However, since he does possess two above-average secondary pitches, solid command of his fastball and a ground-ball profile, I'd give Gibson a chance to move faster than expected, making him a pitcher to watch in AL-only leagues.
28. Brandon Beachy, SP, Atlanta Braves: Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2008, Beachy has sped through the minors thanks to advanced control and command, posting a minor league-best 1.73 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A last season, and fanning 15 batters in 15 big league innings over three starts for the Braves in September. He also added more strikeouts to the mix last season thanks to a much-improved changeup that quickly became a go-to pitch for him.
Beachy has good movement on his low-90s fastball and locates it well. Along with a solid curve and the aforementioned changeup, he does a good job of mixing thing up and keeping hitters off-balance. There is one spot currently open in the Braves' rotation, and it appears Mike Minor is the favorite for it, but the Braves likely will need Beachy in the rotation at some point this season, and his savvy and "pitchability" give him a chance to have short-term success. He has spent time both as a starter and as a reliever, so it's possible he could make the club out of the bullpen as a long reliever instead of joining the Triple-A rotation. Regardless, he's a sleeper to stash away in NL-only leagues.
29. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins: Dominguez is being given a good chance to win the Marlins' third-base job despite hitting just .252 and slugging .411 at Double-A last season. The reason for that is thanks to his defense at the hot corner, which is the best I've seen in the minors over the past couple of years. Dominguez, a first-round pick in 2007, made some strides last year in reducing a hitch in his swing that can make him late to the ball, and not getting out on his front foot, which messes up his timing. That said, he still has some pitch-recognition issues, and he can be beaten on the inner half of the plate. Just the fact that he likely will get regular playing time, given his defense, makes him worth noting for single-league-format owners, who are always looking for any youngster in line for regular at-bats. But I'm skeptical about his offensive potential. His offensive upside seems average at best, and the 21-year-old is not even at that point yet. Still, he could make some strides and surprise.
30. Juan Miranda, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: The 27-year-old Cuban defector is technically still a prospect, and he has a chance to earn some significant playing time in the Valley of the Sun. Miranda will be eligible at DH/utility only to start the year but is a favorite of new D-backs GM Kevin Towers, who got to know his talents well while he was working with the Yankees, targeted him in the offseason, and thinks he has a good chance to hold down the first-base job if given an extended opportunity.
Miranda has good pop from the left side and has some plate discipline to go with it, with a career on-base percentage better than .360 in the minors. He will gain first-base eligibility soon enough and might be overlooked in NL-only leagues on draft day. Drafting him is a calculated risk, but it could pay off nicely in the power department, with a decent batting average to go with it. The club did sign Russell Branyan, and Brandon Allen is also around to compete for playing time, but Branyan might be more in the way of insurance at the position and used more as a bench bat if Miranda has a solid spring, and there are some in the organization who think Allen has holes in his swing that will be an issue in the big leagues. Miranda's numbers are not likely to blow you away, but he can be quietly effective and useful if given the at-bats. 31. Scott Cousins, OF, Florida Marlins: The 26-year-old Cousins is likely to start the season as the Marlins' fourth outfielder, with the chance to earn more playing time if there's an injury or Chris Coghlan disappoints with his bat or his glove while transitioning to center field. Cousins is a "toolsy" player who can play all three outfield positions well and would post double digits in both homers and steals, with the bat speed to post a solid batting average, if given a regular job. He separated his shoulder early last season but hit .335 with a .544 slugging percentage over the second half of the season at Triple-A once he was healthy again, and he showed marked improvement against southpaws, reducing his tendency to get too aggressive and get himself out. He could have some sneaky value in single-league formats.
32. Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics: Carter went 0-for-33 to start his major league career, but there's still some dangerous thunder in his bat; he has hit 39, 28 and 34 homers, respectively, over the past three seasons. He can play either first base or left field, but his best position, really, is simply in the batter's box. That won't help his case for playing time, and he's likely to start the year back at Triple-A. Despite the high homer totals, he still has some things to work on. The biggest is being more consistent with the timing of his swing. Sometimes he starts his swing late, perhaps because he's looking for off-speed pitches a bit too much, and at other times, he's way out in front of pitches. He still must recognize and adapt better to the steady diet of junk and better secondary stuff he's seeing, and continue to manage his proclivity to chase. The A's are overloaded with veteran outfield and DH options right now, and appear happy with Daric Barton at first, meaning Carter likely will need an injury or two to get an opportunity. His power will come with a low batting average and a ton of strikeouts, although he is willing to take a walk. AL-only owners should stash him in reserve and hope to hit the home run lottery later in the year.
33. Lucas Duda, OF, New York Mets: The 25-year-old with the massive 6-5, 240-pound frame finally tapped into his raw power and had a breakout year in 2010. Duda hit .304 with 23 homers and an on-base percentage just below .400 between Double- and Triple-A, and had a strong finish in the big leagues in the final few weeks (after a slow start). He's a below-average defender in the outfield, which won't help his case for at-bats, but he has a decent batting eye, makes contact and is a legitimate power prospect, enough that the bat might allow you to overlook his defense somewhat. He does a good job of looking for something to drive rather than something he can simply make contact with, and he can hit the ball hard. Given the health questions the Mets have entering the season with their corner outfielders (Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran), Duda could wind up getting regular at-bats at some point, and be worth a look in NL-only leagues.
34. Simon Castro, SP, San Diego Padres: Castro, who will turn 23 in April, posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in a good pitcher's park at Double-A last year. Castro has a funky El Duque-type delivery that has some scouts wondering if he can have consistent command as a starter at the big league level, given that he doesn't always repeat his pitching motion well and his release point wanders. But at the same time, that delivery does have some deception, which helps him miss a lot of bats. He also locates his slider well, he can throw strikes, and Petco Park can cover up a lot of mistakes.
Castro will start the year at Triple-A, where he'll work on his location and his changeup to become more than just at two-pitch hurler, but he could be a part of the big league club's plans by the second half of the season if he shows a bit more overall refinement. Consider him a deep sleeper in NL-only leagues. He has more upside than teammate and fellow prospect Cory Luebke, though Luebke is the better bet for short-term success. (For those wondering about another top Padres pitching prospect, Casey Kelly probably won't be ready to make an impact in the big leagues this season; he'll start at Double-A in his second year of full-time pitching, and still has command issues to work on.)
35. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Arguably the best first-base prospect in the minors, Hosmer put up a monster season in the minors in 2010 (.977 OPS between Class A and Double-A). Granted, that performance was expected of him when he was drafted, but it was likely a year delayed because of Lasik surgery and a finger injury. Hosmer makes very hard contact with good balance and without overswinging, has power to all fields, and has the plate discipline and pitch recognition (now that he can see correctly) to post a high batting average to go with it. The third overall pick in the 2008 draft is clearly the Royals' first baseman of the future and should make his debut sometime in the second half of the season, perhaps sooner than that if he's hitting and Kila Ka'aihue is struggling. This makes him someone who should be on your radar for this season. I wrote more extensively about Hosmer during the 2010 Arizona Fall League.
36. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Alonso, the seventh overall pick in the 2008 draft, got off to a slow start last season -- he was still getting up to speed while recovering from a broken hamate bone that cost him half of the 2009 season -- but started hitting the ball with authority again at Triple-A, posting a .335 AVG/.416 OBP/.561 SLG stat line over his final 173 at-bats in the minors. He has a good understanding of the strike zone, and could eventually hit 30 homers over a full season if he improves against left-handed pitching.
Of course, the bigger issue with Alonso is that he's stuck behind reigning National League MVP Joey Votto in the Reds' organization. Alonso is spending more time working in left field this spring to find a way to get him in the lineup, but he's miscast there defensively, and could wind up being a trade piece at some point. Unfortunately, a Votto injury appears to be Alonso's best path to playing time right now, unless he somehow adapts better to left field than expected or is involved in a trade that allows him to man first base for another organization. He's not far off from being ready to contribute, but he needs an opening that will give him extended at-bats.
37. Tanner Scheppers, P, Texas Rangers: Scheppers has a premium power arm -- he can throw in the high 90s with a wicked breaking ball -- but he struggled a bit last season while working on developing his split-changeup. Given his past shoulder troubles and power repertoire, many scouts think Scheppers should be working in the back end of a big league bullpen, racking up strikeouts (and potentially saves if Neftali Feliz moves to the rotation) in the process. The Rangers still are committed to stretching him out as a starter, though, and that's what he will work on this spring. We'll see how that shakes out. How Feliz and Alexi Ogando fare in their own attempts to stretch out this spring could affect Scheppers' future job description as well. Either way, this is an arm that bears close attention, and he's not far off from being big league-ready. I like to take chances on power arms, stash them away and wait for them to slide into a role. I wrote more about Scheppers last year, including some slow-motion video of his delivery.
38. Jarrod Parker, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: By far the best pitching prospect in the D-backs system, Parker, the ninth overall pick in the 2007 draft, was one of the best pitching prospects in the game before getting derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2009 and missing all of last season. However, he made it back for instructional-league play, and showed he could still bring upper-90s heat. The velocity is also coming from a relatively clean delivery, which allows him to command the ball well. As hard as he throws, he's more than just a velocity guy. He throws four pitches, including a hard-breaking "plus" slider and an above-average changeup with some sink and fade. The radar-gun readings are back; now it's just a matter of him polishing his other pitches and getting the feel for them again.
But that could come fast. With the heat he can bring, his command potential and two solid secondary pitches, Parker is worth watching closely. He should make his big league debut at some point this season, especially given some of the question marks at the back end of Arizona's rotation. He's likely to start the year at Double-A Mobile, but he could move fairly quickly and have fantasy impact this season even though his total innings likely will be limited.
39. Brad Emaus, 2B, New York Mets: The Mets grabbed Emaus in the Rule 5 draft from the Blue Jays, and he'll have a chance to earn the starting second-base job with a good spring, with Daniel Murphy and Luis Castillo being the primary competition. I've kept my eye on Emaus, who will turn 25 at the end of camp, since I first saw him in the Hawaii Winter League back in 2008. He drew comparisons to Ty Wigginton earlier in his pro career, though it looks like he has the potential for better on-base skills than Wigginton, albeit with not as much pop. When he's on, Emaus features a stroke that scouts call "short to and long through." In other words, a short path to the ball, and his bat stays in the hitting zone a long time. If he wins the second-base job, he'd obviously be worth a look in NL-only play, and could be a sleeper in mixed leagues, with the potential for a solid on-base percentage and teens homer power.
For those wondering about another Mets second-base prospect, Reese Havens, I simply want to see him stay healthy first. There's definite offensive potential in the 2008 first-rounder, but he has played in just 152 games his first two and a half professional seasons, and the Mets have enough options that they don't need to push him.
40. Ben Revere, OF, Minnesota Twins: At least a 70 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and a plus defender capable of playing either left or center field, Revere is pretty close to being ready for regular at-bats in the big leagues. He's never going to hit for power, but he has hit better than .300 in each of his four pro seasons, and has 40-steal ability at the big league level -- he stole 36, 45 and 44 bags, respectively, over the past three years -- and perhaps even 50-steal potential as he continues to refine that part of his game instead of relying so much on his raw speed. Revere has good on-base skills to make use of those wheels, and he makes a ton of contact (he has struck out in just 8.3 percent of his 1,513 minor league plate appearances) thanks to his fine hand-eye coordination and bat control.
The question here is when he will get a starting opportunity. The Twins aren't likely to keep him around as a backup when he could be playing every day at Triple-A, and their outfield is full right now. However, all it takes is one injury to open up playing time for Revere, and the steals and batting average production will flow from there. Fantasy owners always feel the need for speed, and Revere can supply that if given the chance.
41. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs: A first-round pick in the 2009 draft, the 22-year-old Jackson played the last half of his first full season as a pro at the Double-A level, putting up a combined .395 on-base percentage and .493 slugging percentage, while adding 30 stolen bases. I think Jackson is actually a touch overrated; his overall tools aren't as good as some make them out to be. But it's not just about tools, it's about production, and Jackson has produced thus far and can continue to do so. He can do enough offensively to be a fantasy asset if given regular at-bats this season, with a little pop and a little speed. And although he might have some issues making contact at the upper levels, he does have the bat speed to provide a decent batting average as well.
Jackson has an overall package that fantasy owners should be pretty happy with once he gets a chance to play. There's a bit of a logjam in the Cubs outfield at the moment, so he might have to bide his time a bit. However, he's on the fast track, and his ability to play all three outfield positions enhances his chances of getting playing time in the near future. 42. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians: The 22-year-old Chisenhall has that proverbial sweet left-handed hitting stroke with a feel for getting the barrel of the bat on pitches. The 2008 first-round pick is the Indians' third baseman of the future, a future that could start sometime in the second half of this season. Long-term, he projects to hit for both average and power, primarily the former, even though he hasn't really had that "eye-opening" minor league season yet (in part because he battled shoulder trouble last year before finishing strong). The Indians have enough options that they can afford to let Chisenhall develop a little more, and according to the team website, he has been told he's not competing for a roster spot this spring. He might be another year away, but he's likely the team's future at third base, and a name to keep on your radar screen, especially given the current lack of quality options the club has at the hot corner.
As long as we're talking about Chisenhall, I should also mention Jared Goedert, a 25-year-old third baseman who hit .283 with 27 homers across the upper levels of the minors last year, including 20 in his last 81 games at Triple-A. However, Goedert had two rough seasons with the bat before that. He might struggle to make consistent contact at the next level, and his defense is not major league-quality yet.
43. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians: A second-round pick in the 2009 draft, Kipnis is making the transition from the outfield to second base -- a favorable position change for fantasy owners -- and he's handling it well thus far. In his first full professional season, the compactly built Kipnis hit .307 and slugged .492, spending the majority of the year at Double-A before impressing further in the Arizona Fall League. He has a clean, short stroke with solid leverage that generates natural power without overswinging. He's going to pepper the gaps, with a 20-homer season in the big leagues being a possibility.
Kipnis will start the year in the minors, where he'll continue to work on the transition to second base. But his bat is pretty close to being ready to contribute, and veteran acquisition Orlando Cabrera won't stand in his way once Kipnis is deemed ready, which is likely to be at some point this year.
While I'm talking about Chisenhall and Kipnis, I should also mention that the Indians have another couple of prospects close to being ready. Cord Phelps can stick in the big leagues offensively with his doubles power, but his best positions also have Chisenhall and Kipnis on the depth chart, so his role might ultimately be as a quality utility player. That said, he could be a deep sleeper in AL-only leagues until those two are deemed ready. Outfielder Nick Weglarz's offensive profile has drawn some comparisons to Nick Swisher's game, but Weglarz needs to show he can do a better job of staying healthy, and there really isn't room for him at the moment, with his below-average defense not helping him.
44. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds: Mesoraco, the 15th overall pick in the 2007 draft, finally had his breakout offensive year in his fourth professional season. The delay was partially due to some injury troubles, but the 22-year-old broke out in 2010 by putting up a .322 AVG/.377 OBP/.587 SLG stat line across three levels after not slugging better than .400 in each of his previous pro years. His breakout performance has him on the cusp of the big leagues.
In 2010, Mesoraco reduced the amount of uppercut in his stroke, which allowed him to keep the bat in the hitting zone for a longer time and take better advantage of his bat speed. He'll hit for power in the big leagues, something fantasy owners love from their backstops. There are some questions about the quality of his defense, though. He had problems just catching the ball in the Arizona Fall League, putting up a double-digit passed ball total in just 18 games, but it turns out some finger trouble might have been the culprit. Still, his receiving and blocking does need work despite his strong arm and ability to shut down base stealers. With just the tandem of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan ahead of him, Mesoraco is just an injury away from getting regular big league at-bats. Even without an injury, he could force the issue by continuing to rake at Triple-A early in the year.
45. Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: The spring injury to Adam Wainwright certainly put a spotlight on the Cardinals' rotation depth, and even if Lynn isn't part of the big league rotation at the start of the season, the Cardinals likely will need him at some point. A supplemental first-rounder in the 2008 draft, Lynn cruised through Double-A in 2009 with a 2.92 ERA in 22 starts, but had some problems at Triple-A last year while transitioning to more of a four-seam fastball repertoire to give him some more velocity. He was throwing in the mid-90s, though, which actually makes him a little more intriguing despite the poor results initially. He racked up more strikeouts with his new approach, though he also made more mistakes up in the zone, leaving him more prone to home run balls. Still, fantasy owners might not mind him trading sinkers for swings and misses in the overall results. What he really needs is for either his breaking ball or his changeup to take a small step forward so he doesn't have to rely on his fastball so much. That would give him another go-to offering. All told, there's enough here at the moment to make him a sleeper in NL-only play if he earns a rotation spot.
46. Andrew Oliver, SP, Detroit Tigers: Barring an unexpected spring development, Oliver won't start the year in the Tigers' rotation. But he'll likely get an opportunity at some point. Oliver was a second-round pick in the 2009 draft out of Oklahoma State, largely because he was a big, strong southpaw with plus velocity. His four-seam fastball generally sits in 92-94 mph range and can tick a few mph higher. He uses his fastball a lot, throwing it about three-quarters of the time, but he hides the ball well with his three-quarters delivery, which gives him a little deception to add to the velocity.
Oliver's delivery is pretty clean. Although at times he has trouble repeating it, with his front side opening up and his arm coming through late, he should be able to improve that as he develops, and he projects to eventually have above-average fastball command, though he's not there yet. The biggest issue with Oliver is the development and command of his secondary stuff. He used to throw a curveball, but he scrapped it for a slider that was considered below average in college. The slider has shown some decent improvement since Oliver became a pro, but the pitch's break has been inconsistent and not sharp at times. His mid-80s straight changeup is also in development but has shown some potential, and he did a better job of throwing it without slowing his arm in 2010. Oliver simply needs to become more of a pitcher rather than just a thrower.
Among Tigers pitching prospects, Jacob Turner clearly has more upside, is also on a fast track and has a good chance at making his big league debut sometime late this season, but Oliver is likely the first in line should the club need to call up a replacement.
47. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: This 23-year-old switch-hitter just put up his second straight solid season in the minors as he continues to develop his athletic tools into baseball skills. His plate discipline (.404 on-base percentage) and speed (85 steals over the past two years) make him a player to keep an eye on, and he can add a touch more power to his game, too.
Given the Dodgers' plan to go with the unimpressive duo of Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames in left field, it's certainly plausible that Robinson's growth path has him on track to make a big league impact as soon as later this season. He just needs a little time at Triple-A after spending all of last season in Double-A. The Dodgers also have another prospect capable of playing left field in Jerry Sands, but Robinson is slightly ahead of him at this point. I wrote more extensively about Robinson and talked with his manager, Don Mattingly, about him for this Arizona Fall League blog entry.
48. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: One of the best, if not the best, long-term starting pitching prospects in the game, it might seem like a stretch to think that Teheran could make the big leagues this season despite having just seven starts above Class A ball, but if anyone can do it, he can. Braves GM Frank Wren has already talked about the possibility of Teheran pitching in the majors this year, adding the caveat that the team would probably need to have a couple of injuries for him to do so. Since when do starting pitchers get hurt? (Yes, that was sarcasm.)
The 20-year-old righty sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and already shows command of both a changeup and a curve, both already plus pitches, and he can throw strikes with all of them. It's prototypical ace stuff in every respect, and that's exactly what he will be: an ace. It's just a question of when.
Is it too early to expect Teheran to have fantasy impact in 2011? Quite possibly, especially with the Braves having other pitching prospects (such as Brandon Beachy) in front of him. The Braves can afford the luxury of giving their prize arm a little more development time. However, as I've mentioned before, premium talent can accelerate timetables at a premium pace, and make no mistake about it, Teheran is a premium talent. He's worth stashing away, especially in single-league formats, in the hopes of hitting the jackpot.
49. Rudy Owens, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Owens has transitioned from being a soft-tossing lefty when he was signed to a 23-year-old who can bring solid, consistent low-90s velocity with a little movement. With his ability to throw strikes, he's like a southpaw version of Kevin Slowey. That combination has put him on our radar screen for this season. He has a career strikeout-to-walk ratio in 354 minor league innings of better than 5-to-1. Owens does not really have an "out" pitch, but he has great command of his fastball and changeup, can move a slurve around in the zone and gets high marks for his ability to stay off the fat part of the plate while still throwing strikes and setting up hitters. That makes his overall repertoire play up, so to speak.
The Pirates are likely to need some starting pitching reinforcements at some point, and Owens is the closest to being ready to contribute as a starter (both to his big league club and a fantasy team) among a group that also includes prospects Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke and Justin Wilson. He's worth monitoring in NL-only play. 50. Robinson Chirinos, C, Tampa Bay Rays: Chirinos spent seven professional seasons as an infielder before being converted to catcher in 2008. Naturally, the 26-year-old still needs a little polish behind the dish, but he has the tools and is already a pretty solid defender. What gets him on this list, though, is Chirinos has mashed the ball in the minors the past three seasons since making the conversion (OPS numbers of .834, .915 and .999), driving the ball to all fields and handling the strike zone very well (more walks than strikeouts in two of those years). At the very least, he will serve as Triple-A insurance behind John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach, with the potential to do some damage at the plate should he get an opportunity, and his ability to play the infield in an emergency situation could help his chances to get on the big league roster. Catchers with offensive potential are always worth monitoring, especially in single-league formats, and Chirinos has high-teens homer potential to go with a usable batting average, if given full-time at-bats.
