NL Closers of the Future
Here's the second of two columns looking at closer situations entering 2011. The NL is up this week.
National League Future Closers
Arizona - After somehow managing to give up 13 bombs in his first 34 1/3 innings this season, Juan Gutierrez has stepped up and secured the closer's role in Arizona. Since surrendering his last homer on July 20, he has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings and he's 9-for-9 in save opportunities. With his 95-mph fastball and plus slider, Gutierrez has the stuff to remain a closer going forward. Still, the Diamondbacks figure to bring in a veteran to help him out this winter. Frank Francisco, Jose Contreras and Jason Frasor are a few possibilities that spring to mind. I think Gutierrez will enter spring training with the job, but he'll rank in the 26-30 range among closers for fantasy purposes.
Atlanta - It doesn't look like there's any way to convince Billy Wagner to come back, so the Braves will have to decide whether to entrust the closer's role to Jonny Venters, with Craig Kimbrel as the fast-rising alternative, or to bring in another veteran. With Takashi Saito also likely coming off the books, the money should be there for a Brian Fuentes or Bobby Jenks. The Braves, though, would likely be better off spending it elsewhere. Venters has been awesome, amassing a 1.83 ERA and striking out 85 in 78 2/3 innings as a rookie, and now Kimbrel has come up and fanned 31 in 16 innings. Kimbrel is the better bet to be the long-term closer, and if the Braves do decide to go young, I'll recommend pairing him and Venters in fantasy leagues.
Chicago - Carlos Marmol always keeps things interesting, but he's been undeniably effective as the Cubs' closer, going 34-for-39 in save chances. The concern is whether his arm will eventually give out from throwing so many sliders. The Cubs, though, will ride him for as long as they can. Their big decision entering 2011 is whether to move 2008 first-round pick Andrew Cashner back to the rotation or to continue carrying him as a reliever. Cashner, who throws 94-98 mph, definitely has closer-type talent, but he could also be a second or third starter if his changeup comes along, something that won't happen if he remains in a setup role. Regardless of what happens with Cashner, though, the Cubs will want to add at least one veteran reliever this winter. Bringing back Kerry Wood is an interesting option. J.J. Putz is another possibility.
Cincinnati - With eight blown saves and a 4.12 ERA, Francisco Cordero has had a rough year. Still, there's reason to think he'll be better in 2011, and since the Reds are on the hook for another $13 million, it's doubtful that he's going anywhere. It will be worth watching to see how the rest of the staff shakes out. Aaron Harang is a goner, but Bronson Arroyo's 2011 option is very reasonable ($11 million, $2 million buyout). If Arroyo returns, it'd leave four rotation spots for Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood. The Reds would then have the option of seeing if the inconsistent Cueto might be of more use as a short-term reliever or if it'd make sense to give Chapman a full year in the pen before letting him fulfill his destiny as a starter. If they go either of those routes, Cordero would become a very risky pick on draft day.
Colorado - Huston Street would have been eligible for free agency at season's end, but the Rockies signed him to a three-year, $22.5 million deal this spring, locking him up through 2012. He'll remain in the closer's role. The Rockies won't have Manuel Corpas next year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. They will, though, retain Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle to pitch in setup roles. Ideally, Franklin Morales would step up and emerge as a late-game option from the left side. However, the erratic 24-year-old has posted a 6.67 ERA and walked 22 in 27 innings this year. Former closer of the future Casey Weathers didn't progress as quickly as hoped after Tommy John surgery and is due to spend at least another half-season in the minors. The Rockies' best relief prospect now is Rex Brothers, who could turn into a rare left-handed closer two or three years down the line.
Florida - Since Leo Nunez pitched his way out of the job, the Marlins have turned to journeyman Clay Hensley as their closer. I doubt either will go into next season in the role. Nunez has been unlucky this year -- he has a 63/19 K/BB ratio in 60 1/3 innings -- but with 15 blown saves in 70 chances these last two years, he doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Hensley simply doesn't throw hard enough to truly gain anyone's trust. Florida's best bet for a long-term closer is Jhan Martinez, who made his major league debut as a 21-year-old in July and flashed a 95-97 mph fastball in four appearances before hurting his elbow. He didn't need surgery, so the hope is that he'll be 100 percent next year. He could use some Triple-A time, though. Big Jose Ceda also has a great deal of upside, though injuries have held him back. Still very raw, he's a long shot to turn into an eighth- or ninth-inning guy in 2011. I expect that the Marlins will acquire a veteran closer this winter, though they'll wait and see who falls through the cracks. Putz, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel and maybe even Trevor Hoffman are some options. Alternatively, they could pick up a potential closer in a Ricky Nolasco or Dan Uggla trade.
Houston - Matt Lindstrom was a fine closer for four months, going 22-for-26 and posting a 2.48 ERA. Now Brandon Lyon has been a great one the last two, saving 18 games in 19 tries with a 2.76 ERA. Now the Astros have to decide how to line up their pen entering 2011. Lindstrom only lost his job because of an injury, but his ERA has jumped to 4.59. Plus, he's due a raise to $2.5 million-$3 million in arbitration. Lyon will make $10.75 million over the next two seasons. The Astros aren't likely to get back into the NL Central race next year, so trading one of the two relievers is a possibility. That Mark Melancon has looked so good since being picked up from the Yankees for Lance Berkman would make that an easier call. My guess is that Lindstrom goes and Lyon stays, though I wouldn't want to bet on in. Going forward, the situation is nearly impossible to read. I still think Bud Norris, who has a 4.85 ERA in 25 starts this year, might be the long-term closer.
Los Angeles - Jonathan Broxton lost his job as the Dodgers' closer, but considering his seemingly indestructible build, I still think I'd take him over any other reliever in baseball for the next five years. Even in a down year, he has a 72/27 K/BB ratio and he's allowed just three homers in 61 1/3 innings. I expect that Don Mattingly will make the right call and reinstate Broxton as the closer next spring. Hong-Chih Kuo is outstanding, but he needs to be managed closely and I wouldn't want to count on him throwing 60 innings again next year. The bigger threat here may be converted catcher Kenley Jansen. He shows an outstanding feel for pitching for such a newcomer, and I think he will be a quality closer in time. There is the chance that the Dodgers could trade Broxton and go with Kuo, with Jansen opening the year in a setup role, but I think it's a long shot.
<!--RW-->
Milwaukee - I'm still not completely sold on John Axford, though he's been one of baseball's best fantasy relievers since reaching the majors in mid-May. He throws 95 mph and he gets a bunch of swings and misses with his slider, but control remains an issue and I expect that he'll start giving up more homers. He'll enter 2011 as a closer and deservedly so, but the Brewers will probably add a veteran backup. Also very interesting for Milwaukee this year was the development of former first-round picks Jeremy Jeffress and Mark Rogers. Jeffress, who had had drug issues, has displayed a 95-98 mph fastball and a strikeout curve while working exclusively as a reliever this year. If he stays clean, he could turn into a dominant short reliever by 2012. With his long history of arm issues, Rogers is still quite a long shot to have a successful career. However, he's come back throwing 93-96 mph this year. He'll open next year in the Triple-A rotation.
New York - The Mets are expected to make an attempt to trade Francisco Rodriguez after placing him on the disqualified list last month, but it won't be easy. If it were just the $11.5 million salary in 2011, he'd likely be moveable with only a little hassle. However, the vesting $17.5 million option for 2012, that includes a $3.5 million buyout even if it doesn't kick in automatically, is a big issue. The Mets might just have to make up with K-Rod, who quietly posted a 2.20 ERA in 57 1/3 innings before injuring his thumb in an altercation with his girlfriend's father. If they can move him, they'll probably look outside the organization for a cheap closer. Bobby Parnell might well be the long-term answer in that role, and he'll be a sleeper next spring no matter what happens with Rodriguez. Hisanori Takahashi, who is holding down the job now, is just a fallback option.
Philadelphia - He's still not quite what he was two years ago, but Brad Lidge has allowed just two runs while saving 17 games in 18 tries since the beginning of August. The Phillies will have him back in the closer's role next year as he finishes up the final guaranteed season of his three-year, $37.5 million contract. The team holds a $12.5 million option on him for 2012. Ryan Madson will also return. No one in the organization rates as a likely choice to replace Lidge in 2012 or 2013. Scott Mathieson has the fastball, but he also has an extensive injury history and the Phillies declined to give him an opportunity this season even though he excelled in Triple-A. Phillippe Aumont and Trevor May, the Phillies' top two pitching prospects at the beginning of the season, both took big steps backwards this year, leading one to wonder whether they might end up in relief.
Pittsburgh - In Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek, the Pirates have a pair of hard-throwing, inexpensive right-handers capable of working late in games. Letting those two battle for ninth-inning duties next year, with the other working the eighth, is certainly a viable option. However, the Pirates will have money to spend and only so many places where it makes sense to use it. They'll go get at least one starter, but if they start upgrading the lineup, they'll risk blocking young players. For that reason, I do think they'll end up signing a closer and hoping it works out as well as the Dotel addition did this year. In return for spending a bit more than $2.5 million on Dotel, they got four months of decent relief work, a piece of next year's rotation in James McDonald and an outfield prospect with considerable upside in Andrew Lambo. My guess is that Francisco, Joaquin Benoit or someone along those lines is the Pirates' closer on Opening Day.
St. Louis - Ryan Franklin looks a lot more like a generic middle reliever than a shutdown closer, but he's 63-for-70 saving games the last two years. Since the Cardinals won't have much money to dedicate to their pen, there's little doubt Franklin will be back in the closer's role next year. The heir apparent is Jason Motte, who has bounced back from a disappointing rookie season to amass a 2.36 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings this season. Motte still doesn't have a strikeout breaking ball to his credit, so there's still some reason for skepticism here. However, I think he'll be more than adequate if pressed into ninth-inning duty. The Cardinals also have the trustworthy Kyle McClellan, but he's likely more valuable while working in the seventh and eighth innings. Fernando Salas is another potential long-term setup man. 20-year-old Eduardo Sanchez, who had a 2.38 ERA and a 58/20 K/BB ratio in 53 innings between Double- and Triple-A this season, could debut in the first half of next year and emerge as a closer possibility down the line.
San Diego - The Padres have Heath Bell under control for another year, but his salary could double from $4 million to $8 million or so in his final year of arbitration, making him a trade candidate. San Diego could go with a bullpen of Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Ryan Webb, Joe Thatcher, Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica and Tim Stauffer (if he's not in the rotation), all for less than $5 million. If Bell goes, it's likely that Adams would take over as the closer. Gregerson was even more dominant than Adams for four months this year, but Adams has been the eighth-inning guy for the most part and he has a 1.81 ERA over the last three years. Unless the Padres progress deep into the postseason, I think the team will trade Bell.
San Francisco - Brian Wilson leads the majors with 45 saves this year, and he's under Giants control through 2013. The team will also bring back Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla as setup men. With Affeldt having slipped this year, Romo should be second in line for saves next season.
Washington - The Nationals haven't found a closer since trading Matt Capps to the Twins before the deadline. 2008 first-round pick Drew Storen will grow into the role someday, but there's no reason to rush him. After a promising start, he's amassed a 5.85 ERA between August and September. With his ability to work two innings at a time and pitch a few days in a row, Tyler Clippard is at his best in a setup role. The Nationals have had a couple of surprises emerge in former No. 1 pitching prospect Collin Balester and one-time Phillies reliever Joe Bisenius. Balester looks a lot more comfortable since a move to the pen, and while he has walked 10 in 17 innings for the Nats, he's also struck out 26. Bisenius has yet to make an impact, but he has been flashing 95-98 mph heat since arriving earlier this month. I expect that the Nationals will sign a closer this winter, maybe Rafael Soriano or Brian Fuentes. Storen is the future, but the team needs a bridge.
Here's the second of two columns looking at closer situations entering 2011. The NL is up this week.
National League Future Closers
Arizona - After somehow managing to give up 13 bombs in his first 34 1/3 innings this season, Juan Gutierrez has stepped up and secured the closer's role in Arizona. Since surrendering his last homer on July 20, he has a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings and he's 9-for-9 in save opportunities. With his 95-mph fastball and plus slider, Gutierrez has the stuff to remain a closer going forward. Still, the Diamondbacks figure to bring in a veteran to help him out this winter. Frank Francisco, Jose Contreras and Jason Frasor are a few possibilities that spring to mind. I think Gutierrez will enter spring training with the job, but he'll rank in the 26-30 range among closers for fantasy purposes.
Atlanta - It doesn't look like there's any way to convince Billy Wagner to come back, so the Braves will have to decide whether to entrust the closer's role to Jonny Venters, with Craig Kimbrel as the fast-rising alternative, or to bring in another veteran. With Takashi Saito also likely coming off the books, the money should be there for a Brian Fuentes or Bobby Jenks. The Braves, though, would likely be better off spending it elsewhere. Venters has been awesome, amassing a 1.83 ERA and striking out 85 in 78 2/3 innings as a rookie, and now Kimbrel has come up and fanned 31 in 16 innings. Kimbrel is the better bet to be the long-term closer, and if the Braves do decide to go young, I'll recommend pairing him and Venters in fantasy leagues.
Chicago - Carlos Marmol always keeps things interesting, but he's been undeniably effective as the Cubs' closer, going 34-for-39 in save chances. The concern is whether his arm will eventually give out from throwing so many sliders. The Cubs, though, will ride him for as long as they can. Their big decision entering 2011 is whether to move 2008 first-round pick Andrew Cashner back to the rotation or to continue carrying him as a reliever. Cashner, who throws 94-98 mph, definitely has closer-type talent, but he could also be a second or third starter if his changeup comes along, something that won't happen if he remains in a setup role. Regardless of what happens with Cashner, though, the Cubs will want to add at least one veteran reliever this winter. Bringing back Kerry Wood is an interesting option. J.J. Putz is another possibility.
Cincinnati - With eight blown saves and a 4.12 ERA, Francisco Cordero has had a rough year. Still, there's reason to think he'll be better in 2011, and since the Reds are on the hook for another $13 million, it's doubtful that he's going anywhere. It will be worth watching to see how the rest of the staff shakes out. Aaron Harang is a goner, but Bronson Arroyo's 2011 option is very reasonable ($11 million, $2 million buyout). If Arroyo returns, it'd leave four rotation spots for Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood. The Reds would then have the option of seeing if the inconsistent Cueto might be of more use as a short-term reliever or if it'd make sense to give Chapman a full year in the pen before letting him fulfill his destiny as a starter. If they go either of those routes, Cordero would become a very risky pick on draft day.
Colorado - Huston Street would have been eligible for free agency at season's end, but the Rockies signed him to a three-year, $22.5 million deal this spring, locking him up through 2012. He'll remain in the closer's role. The Rockies won't have Manuel Corpas next year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. They will, though, retain Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle to pitch in setup roles. Ideally, Franklin Morales would step up and emerge as a late-game option from the left side. However, the erratic 24-year-old has posted a 6.67 ERA and walked 22 in 27 innings this year. Former closer of the future Casey Weathers didn't progress as quickly as hoped after Tommy John surgery and is due to spend at least another half-season in the minors. The Rockies' best relief prospect now is Rex Brothers, who could turn into a rare left-handed closer two or three years down the line.
Florida - Since Leo Nunez pitched his way out of the job, the Marlins have turned to journeyman Clay Hensley as their closer. I doubt either will go into next season in the role. Nunez has been unlucky this year -- he has a 63/19 K/BB ratio in 60 1/3 innings -- but with 15 blown saves in 70 chances these last two years, he doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Hensley simply doesn't throw hard enough to truly gain anyone's trust. Florida's best bet for a long-term closer is Jhan Martinez, who made his major league debut as a 21-year-old in July and flashed a 95-97 mph fastball in four appearances before hurting his elbow. He didn't need surgery, so the hope is that he'll be 100 percent next year. He could use some Triple-A time, though. Big Jose Ceda also has a great deal of upside, though injuries have held him back. Still very raw, he's a long shot to turn into an eighth- or ninth-inning guy in 2011. I expect that the Marlins will acquire a veteran closer this winter, though they'll wait and see who falls through the cracks. Putz, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel and maybe even Trevor Hoffman are some options. Alternatively, they could pick up a potential closer in a Ricky Nolasco or Dan Uggla trade.
Houston - Matt Lindstrom was a fine closer for four months, going 22-for-26 and posting a 2.48 ERA. Now Brandon Lyon has been a great one the last two, saving 18 games in 19 tries with a 2.76 ERA. Now the Astros have to decide how to line up their pen entering 2011. Lindstrom only lost his job because of an injury, but his ERA has jumped to 4.59. Plus, he's due a raise to $2.5 million-$3 million in arbitration. Lyon will make $10.75 million over the next two seasons. The Astros aren't likely to get back into the NL Central race next year, so trading one of the two relievers is a possibility. That Mark Melancon has looked so good since being picked up from the Yankees for Lance Berkman would make that an easier call. My guess is that Lindstrom goes and Lyon stays, though I wouldn't want to bet on in. Going forward, the situation is nearly impossible to read. I still think Bud Norris, who has a 4.85 ERA in 25 starts this year, might be the long-term closer.
Los Angeles - Jonathan Broxton lost his job as the Dodgers' closer, but considering his seemingly indestructible build, I still think I'd take him over any other reliever in baseball for the next five years. Even in a down year, he has a 72/27 K/BB ratio and he's allowed just three homers in 61 1/3 innings. I expect that Don Mattingly will make the right call and reinstate Broxton as the closer next spring. Hong-Chih Kuo is outstanding, but he needs to be managed closely and I wouldn't want to count on him throwing 60 innings again next year. The bigger threat here may be converted catcher Kenley Jansen. He shows an outstanding feel for pitching for such a newcomer, and I think he will be a quality closer in time. There is the chance that the Dodgers could trade Broxton and go with Kuo, with Jansen opening the year in a setup role, but I think it's a long shot.
<!--RW-->
Milwaukee - I'm still not completely sold on John Axford, though he's been one of baseball's best fantasy relievers since reaching the majors in mid-May. He throws 95 mph and he gets a bunch of swings and misses with his slider, but control remains an issue and I expect that he'll start giving up more homers. He'll enter 2011 as a closer and deservedly so, but the Brewers will probably add a veteran backup. Also very interesting for Milwaukee this year was the development of former first-round picks Jeremy Jeffress and Mark Rogers. Jeffress, who had had drug issues, has displayed a 95-98 mph fastball and a strikeout curve while working exclusively as a reliever this year. If he stays clean, he could turn into a dominant short reliever by 2012. With his long history of arm issues, Rogers is still quite a long shot to have a successful career. However, he's come back throwing 93-96 mph this year. He'll open next year in the Triple-A rotation.
New York - The Mets are expected to make an attempt to trade Francisco Rodriguez after placing him on the disqualified list last month, but it won't be easy. If it were just the $11.5 million salary in 2011, he'd likely be moveable with only a little hassle. However, the vesting $17.5 million option for 2012, that includes a $3.5 million buyout even if it doesn't kick in automatically, is a big issue. The Mets might just have to make up with K-Rod, who quietly posted a 2.20 ERA in 57 1/3 innings before injuring his thumb in an altercation with his girlfriend's father. If they can move him, they'll probably look outside the organization for a cheap closer. Bobby Parnell might well be the long-term answer in that role, and he'll be a sleeper next spring no matter what happens with Rodriguez. Hisanori Takahashi, who is holding down the job now, is just a fallback option.
Philadelphia - He's still not quite what he was two years ago, but Brad Lidge has allowed just two runs while saving 17 games in 18 tries since the beginning of August. The Phillies will have him back in the closer's role next year as he finishes up the final guaranteed season of his three-year, $37.5 million contract. The team holds a $12.5 million option on him for 2012. Ryan Madson will also return. No one in the organization rates as a likely choice to replace Lidge in 2012 or 2013. Scott Mathieson has the fastball, but he also has an extensive injury history and the Phillies declined to give him an opportunity this season even though he excelled in Triple-A. Phillippe Aumont and Trevor May, the Phillies' top two pitching prospects at the beginning of the season, both took big steps backwards this year, leading one to wonder whether they might end up in relief.
Pittsburgh - In Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek, the Pirates have a pair of hard-throwing, inexpensive right-handers capable of working late in games. Letting those two battle for ninth-inning duties next year, with the other working the eighth, is certainly a viable option. However, the Pirates will have money to spend and only so many places where it makes sense to use it. They'll go get at least one starter, but if they start upgrading the lineup, they'll risk blocking young players. For that reason, I do think they'll end up signing a closer and hoping it works out as well as the Dotel addition did this year. In return for spending a bit more than $2.5 million on Dotel, they got four months of decent relief work, a piece of next year's rotation in James McDonald and an outfield prospect with considerable upside in Andrew Lambo. My guess is that Francisco, Joaquin Benoit or someone along those lines is the Pirates' closer on Opening Day.
St. Louis - Ryan Franklin looks a lot more like a generic middle reliever than a shutdown closer, but he's 63-for-70 saving games the last two years. Since the Cardinals won't have much money to dedicate to their pen, there's little doubt Franklin will be back in the closer's role next year. The heir apparent is Jason Motte, who has bounced back from a disappointing rookie season to amass a 2.36 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 49 2/3 innings this season. Motte still doesn't have a strikeout breaking ball to his credit, so there's still some reason for skepticism here. However, I think he'll be more than adequate if pressed into ninth-inning duty. The Cardinals also have the trustworthy Kyle McClellan, but he's likely more valuable while working in the seventh and eighth innings. Fernando Salas is another potential long-term setup man. 20-year-old Eduardo Sanchez, who had a 2.38 ERA and a 58/20 K/BB ratio in 53 innings between Double- and Triple-A this season, could debut in the first half of next year and emerge as a closer possibility down the line.
San Diego - The Padres have Heath Bell under control for another year, but his salary could double from $4 million to $8 million or so in his final year of arbitration, making him a trade candidate. San Diego could go with a bullpen of Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Ryan Webb, Joe Thatcher, Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica and Tim Stauffer (if he's not in the rotation), all for less than $5 million. If Bell goes, it's likely that Adams would take over as the closer. Gregerson was even more dominant than Adams for four months this year, but Adams has been the eighth-inning guy for the most part and he has a 1.81 ERA over the last three years. Unless the Padres progress deep into the postseason, I think the team will trade Bell.
San Francisco - Brian Wilson leads the majors with 45 saves this year, and he's under Giants control through 2013. The team will also bring back Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla as setup men. With Affeldt having slipped this year, Romo should be second in line for saves next season.
Washington - The Nationals haven't found a closer since trading Matt Capps to the Twins before the deadline. 2008 first-round pick Drew Storen will grow into the role someday, but there's no reason to rush him. After a promising start, he's amassed a 5.85 ERA between August and September. With his ability to work two innings at a time and pitch a few days in a row, Tyler Clippard is at his best in a setup role. The Nationals have had a couple of surprises emerge in former No. 1 pitching prospect Collin Balester and one-time Phillies reliever Joe Bisenius. Balester looks a lot more comfortable since a move to the pen, and while he has walked 10 in 17 innings for the Nats, he's also struck out 26. Bisenius has yet to make an impact, but he has been flashing 95-98 mph heat since arriving earlier this month. I expect that the Nationals will sign a closer this winter, maybe Rafael Soriano or Brian Fuentes. Storen is the future, but the team needs a bridge.
