Trending Up, Trending Down
Pitchers and catchers don't report to spring training for another 22 days and most fantasy drafts won't get going for at least another month, but it's imperative to get a head-start on the competition. Part of that involvess watching as players either trend up or trend down heading into draft day. Overpaying for a hitter or selecting a pitcher too high can mean big trouble. Likewise, letting a high-value athlete fall can result in all sorts of regret come June or July. Enough with the preaching, though. You're here, reading Rotoworld, so you probably already know this stuff.
Below you'll find a group of fantasy baseball's early risers and fallers. For a multitude of different reasons these guys are making noise on draft boards, whether positively or negatively, and I'll attempt to explain why. The trends we're seeing now may or may not continue, but I can guarantee you won't miss a beat if you stay up-to-speed with our player news page.
[Note: ADP stands for Average Draft Position]
One last thing before we get going: I'd like to thank all those who either sent in e-mails or began following me on Twitter this past week. I'll be around all season and will do as much as I can to help navigate us down the wisest fantasy paths. Cue the Robert Frost poem. Or the Tim Tebow speech. Eh, you know what I mean. Something nice and corny.
Editors Note: You can purchase Rotoworld's Draft Guide now. It's chock full of all your draft day needs and is constantly updated by Rotoworld's finest.
[SIZE=+2]Early Risers[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Ben Sheets - RHP - Athletics ADP: 302[/SIZE]
It took over a year and an elbow surgery, but Sheets finally landed a free agent contract. The 31-year-old right-hander inked a one-year, $10 million deal with the A's on Tuesday and will slide into an Oakland starting rotation that already includes Justin Duchscherer and youngsters Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, and Trevor Cahill. Suddenly the Athletics have an intimidating rotation mix and Sheets should lead the way. He impressed all onlookers at his short throwing session last week, hitting 92 MPH with his fastball and displaying a nice break on his low-70s curve. We all know Sheets can dominate if he's able to remain healthy and all signs are good thus far. His ADP will rise steadily until spring training begins and will shoot even higher if he throws well during his first few exhibition starts. Get in on the ground floor.
[SIZE=+1]Justin Upton - OF - Diamondbacks ADP: 31[/SIZE]
Oh, to be young and talented. From speed, to a quality glove, to potential 40-homer power, Upton is an absolutely superb athlete and continues to rise on draft boards as owners wrap their heads around his stat line from last season and ponder his upside moving forward. The 22-year-old hit .300/.366/.532 in 2009 with 26 home runs, 30 doubles, seven triples and 86 RBI in 526 at-bats. He also swiped 20 bases on 25 attempts, a high enough percentage that manager A.J. Hinch might let him run a little more freely this year. He had plate discipline issues in '08, and again in '09, but that's the sort of thing we're supposed to see from major league newcomers. Plate discipline in the big leagues often comes with experience. It's simple: the more times you face a pitcher, the better read you have on his pitches. Look for B.J.'s brother to flourish in his second full season.
[SIZE=+1]Johan Santana - LHP - Mets ADP: 42[/SIZE]
Santana was drafted in the second round of most mixed fantasy leagues last year and even cracked the first round in some deeper formats. He performed to expectations in the first half of the 2009 season, posting 10 wins, a 3.10 ERA and 112 strikeouts over his first 18 starts. Things didn't run as smoothly after the All-Star break, however, and he was shut down in August with an elbow issue that eventually required arthroscopic surgery. Nobody likes or trusts arm injuries with pitchers, and there's good reason for pessimism given recent history in the sport. But all reports have been strong concerning Santana's rehab and he promised New York area reporters this week that he will be ready to take the mound on Opening Day. It appears the vow has helped him gain the trust of fantasy owners, because he's shooting steadily up draft boards. And with every exhibition start (he's expected to make five this spring), the left-hander will rise a little more.
[SIZE=+1]Brandon Webb - RHP - Diamondbacks ADP: 139[/SIZE]
Just like Santana, the right-handed Webb is gaining ground on draft boards with each positive report that surfaces about the progress of his throwing shoulder. He made just one start last year before the Diamondbacks shut him down, and it was a six-run drubbing against the Rockies. But he addressed the injury with a debridement procedure last fall and all reports have been positive since. Arizona management felt good enough about the rehab process to pick up his $8.5 million option for 2010 and fantasy owners may want to give Webb a similar amount of trust. Bear in mind for a second that he went 22-7 in 2008 with a 3.30 ERA and 183 strikeouts. Not doing it for you? How about 2007, when the 6-foot-3 righty finished 18-0 with a 3.01 ERA and 194 strikeouts? Webb is a dominant pitcher when healthy, boasting a devastating sinker and changeup combination. He's a risk, sure, but you have to take chances in fantasy baseball and the rewards should be great if he can stay healthy for at least 175 innings.
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[SIZE=+1]Josh Hamilton - OF - Rangers ADP: 51[/SIZE]
With Julio Borbon taking over in center field this season, Hamilton has been given the opportunity to better maintain his health at a less-demanding corner outfield position. We can't say definitively whether the move will help, because, well, this is professional athletics and the baseball season can be a grind. But early mock draft participants have clearly caught wind of manager Ron Washington's decision and Hamilton is moving swiftly up draft boards. The 28-year-old former No. 1 overall pick absolutely kills balls when he's not in the trainer's room. He had 10 home runs and 54 RBI last season in just 89 games, including an .853 OPS with runners on base and a .314/.344/.523 batting line with runners in scoring position. The tatted-up Hamilton is an RBI machine, as we've seen in the last three years, and he's now buoyed by a Rangers lineup that includes Vladimir Guerrero. As long as reports continue to stream in praising his rehab, he will continue to gain value. And it is deserved value.
[SIZE=+2]Early Fallers[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+1]Joel Zumaya - RHP - Tigers ADP: 335[/SIZE]
Two weeks ago it looked as though Zumaya might finally get a crack at full-time closing duties. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski even hinted at the idea in early December, telling MLB.com's Jason Beck, "He's got enough experience at this time. He's been around long enough. We all know he has good enough stuff. He hasn't pitched the ninth inning on a regular basis by any means, but do I think he has a chance to do it? Yes." Enter Jose Valverde. Detroit signed the fiery Dominican to a two-year, $14 million contract a little over a week ago and even gave him a $9 million option for 2012. Valverde has 167 career saves and a 1.17 career WHIP. He's also a strikeout machine, having racked up 217 punch-outs in his last 190 1/3 innings. In other words, Zumaya probably won't get a whiff of ninth-inning duties for the next three years. Eighth-inning setup men don't often carry fantasy value, especially in mixed formats, and the 25-year-old from Chula Vista, California is no exception.
[SIZE=+1]Carlos Beltran - OF - Mets ADP: 86[/SIZE]
Sometimes you sort of have to feel sorry for the Mets. And other times you just have to laugh. Beltran, 32, underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee in early January and is expected to miss the first month of the 2010 season. Of course, that's not where the story ends. A breakdown in communications between Beltran's agent, Scott Boras, and the Mets' front office created a complete public relations nightmare soon after news broke of the procedure two weeks ago. GM Omar Minaya told the media that the outfielder was not given permission for the surgery, and yet Beltran's agent was handed workman's compensation from the organization days earlier to cover the cost of the procedure. Like I said, a nightmare. With so much shadiness and uncertainty surrounding the operation, it's hard to know when drafting Beltran might be worthwhile. He's tumbling down draft boards because it seems impossible to trust either side, and it's probably worth noting that the Mets have a checkered recent history with projecting accurate recovery times. See: shortstop Jose Reyes.
[SIZE=+1]Dan Uggla - 2B - Marlins ADP: 85[/SIZE]
Uggla carried an ADP of 67 during draft season in 2009 but has fallen nearly 20 points heading into this year and it doesn't appear he's heading north anytime soon. What gives? His quantifiable fantasy stats aren't far off -- 32 homers in '08, 31 in '09 -- and he has even reduced his once-astronomical strikeout rate. The two-bagger has also posted strikingly similar RBI totals (right around 90) during all four of his professional seasons and most fantasy owners are smart enough to know that he's not reliable in the batting average department. Perhaps participants in early mock drafts were turned off by his status as a trade chip this winter. Or maybe they think he will be dealt this spring. Either way, it doesn't seem like a reason to undervalue him. Uggla boasts an excellent array of power numbers at a position where such things are scarce. He's been a lock for 30-plus home runs and close to 100 RBI since arriving in the big leagues in 2006 and he is still just 29 years of age. Draft him with confidence. End the slide.
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[SIZE=+1]Joel Hanrahan - RHP - Pirates ADP: 334[/SIZE]
Where do we start with this one? Hanrahan, 28, was given a crack at closing duties for the Nationals last season right out of spring training. He immediately squandered the opportunity, though, allowing eight earned runs and blowing three save chances in his first ten relief appearances. The Nationals stripped him of closing duties in late April and employed a closer-by-committe led by Julian Tavarez and Kip Wells. That, of course, did not last and Hanrahan was given another crack at the ninth-inning gig in June. You can probably guess what happened next. He blew the opportunity again, Mike MacDougal took over for the rest of the year, and Hanrahan was eventually traded to Pittsburgh. Surprisingly, the Pirates flirted with the idea of using Hanrahan in the ninth inning this season, but they wised up and signed former White Sox reliever Octavio Dotel to a one-year, $3.25 million contract last week. He will provide some stability at the back-end of the Bucs' bullpen while Hanrahan, whose stock really couldn't get any lower, is already battling elbow tightness.
[SIZE=+1]Brett Anderson - LHP - Athletics ADP: 230[/SIZE]
Anderson, by all accounts, should be rated among the top three or four tiers of young fantasy starters this season. He had an exceptional rookie campaign, collecting 11 wins while compiling a 1.28 WHIP and a 150/45 K/BB ratio in 175 1/3 innings. He pitches in a ballpark that tends to squash power numbers and he finished the year as strong as any elite hurler in the game, with a 2.28 ERA in September and a quality season-ending outing in October. Why, then, is he falling to rounds 19 (in 12-team formats) and 23 (in 10-team formats)? Maybe we should fault SI.com's Tom Verducci, who did some thorough research concerning the impact of large innings totals on young pitchers back in February, 2008. Verducci found that pitchers below the age of 25 who make year-to-year inning leaps of 30 or more will feel the effects of what he calls an "abusive increase." Anderson, 21, tossed 175-plus frames last year. In 2008, while at Triple-A Sacramento, he tallied just 105. The talented young southpaw might be in real trouble
