MIT Math Wiz Has Created A Program To Pick Winners for College and Pro Ball

[russ1945]

Gs

I really don't get trends especially when they span periods where a team has had more than one coach. That is absurd. I agree that numbers are one major factor and certainly should always be considered. But I don't care where you go to school betting football is not like setting up a system to beat blackjack or roulette. Aside from injuries and missed starts you have weather, distance traveled by the visiting team, new head coaches and asst coaches, on and on. Any one who keeps track of numbers has to make adjustments from week to week based on strength of schedule, actual scores, and most importantly compute all of this into something that gives you an edge ATS. I am not throwing this out there as disparaging words but MIT or no MIT, math is math and it can only do so much. The flip side is that it can throw something out there that you may dismiss based on empirical knowledge and general insight and it can be right. They already have computer programs that generate mock games, god knows how they do it but they say they do.
As such these people project game scores before the season even starts.
The thing is at seasons end who keeps track of that kind of stuff and what would you learn in hind sight even if you did. If they are writing the paper for some kind of credit I say go for it. If they come out with something that is right 68% of the time ATS sign me up and I will quit studying myself. I wish there were shortcuts, but handicapping is kind of like whittling, you really have to do it yourself.

 

[jcheckers]

yea I mean the strangest thing is is that they dont even care about making money really...they are more interested in beating the odds or system or whatever but they are going to pick the ten strongest games each week...i think its for their thesis or something but these guys are some serious nerds.

My take on this is these college students are not naive, they know that
everything in life is about making money. They are attempting to pick
winners ATS, that's gambling and gambling is about money.

I wish them the best in their endeavor, but I suggest in the end after
they crunch all their numbers in their Sports Statistic Analyzer and
Linemaker Odds Reader they will probably hit at around 50%.

I will look forward to tracking their picks this season and will be there
to congratulate if they are successful! Good Luck Gavlam!

 

[gavin]

No, they didnt even know about offshore gaming until I told them about it. This is more for their thesis or whatever, maybe if they are successful than I'm sure they will be smart enough to make some cash.

 

[gavin]

They said they should have their first plays by third week of august....I'm gonna run with them for a month or so

 

[russ1945]

They said they should have their first plays by third week of august....I'm gonna run with them for a month or so

Actually it might be very interesting to see. It all starts with numbers and stats but there are many variables. You should check out collegefootballpoll.com. They have already run every game for the whole season thru their computer and have them posted for reference. Pretty interesting and over the long haul, picking 20-30 games a week they are over 50% ATS. You might refer your friends to that site and they can poke around.

 

[gavin]

thanks russ

i called my buddy and told him to check out the site....i get this feeling though he thinks his program will surpass all others because of the team working on it...who knows...giant math egos or something...he said he wouldnt bet money using it because he could get expelled but maybe down the line he would...he says its a sure thing....im skeptical!!!!!

 

[russ1945]

thanks russ

i called my buddy and told him to check out the site....i get this feeling though he thinks his program will surpass all others because of the team working on it...who knows...giant math egos or something...he said he wouldnt bet money using it because he could get expelled but maybe down the line he would...he says its a sure thing....im skeptical!!!!!

Well their first lesson will be that there are no sure things in this life, other than death and taxes. If we can put guys into space we can do anything I guess. The biggest mathematical factor in their favor is that they only have to deal with 120 teams. Years ago Dr. Joyce Brothers (before she become more famous) went on a quiz show called the $64,000.00 question. She picked as her topic, boxing. She knew that there were a finite number of boxing matches, she had a photographic type memory, and because she only had some many matches, names, and statistics to deal with she went on to win the $64,000.00. She had absolutely no interest in boxing either. I think a lot of their enthusiasm is based on the fact that they are dealing with only 120 teams playing 12 to 13 games a year, in terms of what they are capable of dealing with it appears to be a doable thing.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

im like a kid in a candy store reading all the good things that could come out of this program.

 

[gavin]

yea im excited too but I dont see what will be so different compared to like the simulators that are used for like espn and madden etc...maybe because the mit guys will have more up to date data?!? not too sure. I'll have to ask.

 

[russ1945]

yea im excited too but I dont see what will be so different compared to like the simulators that are used for like espn and madden etc...maybe because the mit guys will have more up to date data?!? not too sure. I'll have to ask.

Most of the pure data is going to come from the NCAA statistical archives but they will have to use another source for ATS info. There are some archives on ATS available out there too. That is sound stuff to start with but what you do with it after that is the diffference maker. Now the advantage they would have if the do it, is unlike collegefootballpoll.com, they can make adjustment from week to week with CFP does not do. This might give them an edge over CFP because they would go with real time data and make adjustments accordingly. That could theoretically make it posssible to go over the 55% mark that gets thrown around a lot on here lately. To the true handicapper if almost hurts to think that some nerds could possible out pick them over the course of season doing nothing but looking at numbers. For many handicappers do the actual studying is half the fun, winning a bet is the reward of labors. I guess the same holds true for your buddies but it is just the idea of their indifferent approach that makes a true handicappers skin crawl. Ask them if they are going to do any parlays? Just kidding.

 

[tb06]

let's get this season started already.. i'll be tracking, gavlam! :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

My opinion, is that it is all bout the statistics that you choose to use. I hope this system is very successful, and very well could be. But I do not believe it takes MIT Wizards to come up with a mathematical consensus to produce a long term profit. Know what to use and keep it as simple as possible. Just my .02.

 

[GoSooners]

My opinion, is that it is all bout the statistics that you choose to use. I hope this system is very successful, and very well could be. But I do not believe it takes MIT Wizards to come up with a mathematical consensus to produce a long term profit. Know what to use and keep it as simple as possible. Just my .02.

Your right, it doesn't take MIT mathmateical wizards to have a good system. In fact it's more like the other way around. You want to keep it as simple as possible. You've got to know what stats hold more importance, and which don't.. And you've got to know when all of the numbers in the world won't mean anything in particualr games. I'll give you an example:

When Auburn played Wisconsin a few years ago in the Capital One Bowl, Auburn owned virtually every important statistic in that game including rushing offense, rushing defense, total offense, passing defense, total defense, first down margin and punting margin. Out of all the statistics, the only one that Wisky owned was turnover margin. The best statistical team from the best conference was favored by 10 points that day. You would think if they didn't cover, they would at least win outright, right? No, Wisky won 24-10. The one thing in this game that threw all of these stats out of the window was this was Barry Alvarez's swansong as a HC at Wisconsin. In a game that Auburn should have totally dominated, Wisconsin outgained them 548-236. All because of the situation (angle). The same thing pretty much happened in 2007 too in the same Capital One Bowl when Michigan knocked off a Florida team who was 11 point favorites. That was also Lloyd Carr's swansong as a HC. The one thing that I've found over the years that mathmatical systems have trouble coming to grips with have been the human factor in football. It plays a much bigger part in sport of college football.

 

[russ1945]

Gs

Of course there are always exceptions but I don't think they care. They are more worried about an overall success percentage and they have to know there are anomolies. What you point out however is true. The best of both worlds would be for the MIT guys to have real football handicappers look over their numbers before a given week and apply some of their expertise to come up with a final product. A lot of really good handicappers probably lost on the games your referred to without a mathematical system to lean on so those games could not necessarily be held againt the students either. By the same token Ford made the Edsel anyway.

 

[gavin]

Yea, the idea of having some pro hadicappers look over their picks would be cool but it defeats the purpose of their program. Their goal is to have a positive winning percentage based on their thousands of stats and formula's etc

 

[OnWisconsin]

i once spent an entire offseason preparing myself for the next. reading everything i could get my hands on, looking at stats, projecting stats, painstakingly breaking down individual games from individual conferences, debating with friends. you name it, there i was. i lost 9 grand that year.hno:

then i said, fuck that. let me take the human element out of it. obviously i'm missing something. the more i thought, analyzed, and tried to beat the linemaker the more i lost. then i came up with my own system, and since then i have not lost a game. for just $29,999 i will share with you the secrets to great wealth. just kidding, but i do believe this:

1) have a system and stick with it 2) bet within your bankroll 3) see how it goes.

a friend of mine, a very knowledgeable nfl person, can't beat the spread to save his life. there i was, getting made fun of at the start of the season, but midway through the season i was getting emails from guys i hadn't heard from in years asking who i was playing on sunday. i made 5 bucks that year....

 

[gavin]

thanks for the tips

 

[billbeater]

cannot let your vast research, stats, etc. get you overconfident going into any gambling season... things change fast.
expect the worst and hope for the best!
:toast:
take breaks and use the money management, because the whining and bitching will make it to many cfb posts here this year

 

[gavin]

I hear ya

 

[gavin]

I spoke to my buddy on instant messenger today and he said they are having a so so success rate on past seasons, they got old lines from newspapers and such...so outdated i know....but its still a sucess...there is hours of tinkering to be done though...its like 40hrs a week between 5 people working on it till december...so well see