Player ratings is an excellent factor in the program.
Player Ratings
You have to begin a new season with some kind of rating based on LY and returning players. You can rate players if you want. The trouble is it is very arbitrary. On offense you can look at returning points from LY but on defense it is probably already factored into the defense ratings and stats from the year before. Player ratings if based on expected performances may exclude players with less experience like true Freshmen or Redshirts who assert themselves and become factors. If you are going to use player ratings you would have to reevaluate periodically based on real performances as opposed to the projected performances (plus or minus).
Lots of luck. You are probably better off adjusting teams as a whole rather than players. When you get where you are projecting individual performances you may be short changing the team as a whole. A team gangs up on a star RB and the passing game opens up. You may be wading in the deep end of the pool giving too much importance to player ratings.
You have to begin a new season with some kind of rating based on LY and returning players. You can rate players if you want. The trouble is it is very arbitrary. On offense you can look at returning points from LY but on defense it is probably already factored into the defense ratings and stats from the year before. Player ratings if based on expected performances may exclude players with less experience like true Freshmen or Redshirts who assert themselves and become factors. If you are going to use player ratings you would have to reevaluate periodically based on real performances as opposed to the projected performances (plus or minus).
Lots of luck. You are probably better off adjusting teams as a whole rather than players. When you get where you are projecting individual performances you may be short changing the team as a whole. A team gangs up on a star RB and the passing game opens up. You may be wading in the deep end of the pool giving too much importance to player ratings.
I dont know how you would go about rating each player because everyone has a different method in doing so. I for one would rate the Qb with how well the center & offensive line does like how many sacks they give up & so on. I know it can be tedious but its well worth it if you can come up with something that creates a pointspread or a percentage of Team A beating team B
Also remember that player ratings may not include possible nagging injuries, the type that are not serious enough to keep a player off the playing field, but are serious enough to affect a players performance. Player ratings have to be updated every week. That is 120 teams times 22 players. Way too much work for the desired result. Vegas does not even go through that exercise. Basically, a key injury is worth 1-3 points, depending on how severe the injury.
Bqh
BQH: Injuries etc. wind up being reflected in the final scores one way or another. If a player has a nagging injury and still performs the score will reflect it. If a player has a nagging injury and is not up to his normal level the score will reflect it the other way. The way certain teams have been running up scores lately, a players numbers may be way up early on and level out when they get into conference play and tougher competition.
I am a numbers guy but you are better off sticking with team statistics.
BQH: Injuries etc. wind up being reflected in the final scores one way or another. If a player has a nagging injury and still performs the score will reflect it. If a player has a nagging injury and is not up to his normal level the score will reflect it the other way. The way certain teams have been running up scores lately, a players numbers may be way up early on and level out when they get into conference play and tougher competition.
I am a numbers guy but you are better off sticking with team statistics.
Team stats are just another part of the puzzle. I try to incorperate many aspects including team stats, angles and trends (technical info), injuries, relative SOS's, and others. I think that SOS is the most overlooked thing in handicapping. Kansas State can easily start the season out 5-0, or 4-1, and end up out of a bowl game.
I agree, SOS should always be included in handicapping college football. Now what value you put each team & how many points you give a certain team for beating tougher opponents is something I leave up to math wizards.
We leave that up to our computer. None of us are math wizzards. There is also one more ingredient you HAVE to have if you are going to win n a consistant basis. You have to have that 6th sense that tells you when to lay off a game, even though everything points to the game being a lock. You must have a very accurate gut feeling, because more often than not, your gut feeling is going to be the difference between a winning and losing season. All the great one that I have known have/had that feeling. If it is not there, you are up against it. You can not develop it. You either have it or you don't. If you do not, and most people do not, it does not stop you from being successful, but if you are one of the few that does have it, it eliminates mistakes that you may make. It may be worth 3-5%. Not a lot, but the difference between overall success and failure for a lot of people.
I used do do really well the first four weeks of the season and in the bowl games. The first four weeks I relied heavily on returning starters. The bowl games gave everyone a chance to heal and were more true to form. But they started letting freshmen play, etc - which ruined in [as far as betting is concerned]. Too many unknowns.
Anyway, i quit betting because of it. It got to where I couldn't make any money at it.
It will be interesting to see if these guys can factor in these factors somehow, but I doubt it.
Anyway, i quit betting because of it. It got to where I couldn't make any money at it.
It will be interesting to see if these guys can factor in these factors somehow, but I doubt it.
Bqh
I do not know if you agree with this or not. I had a neighbor who owned and trained thoroughbreds. He taught me how to read a racing form. I was better at math, he knew horses (breeding, etc). We would study the forms every day and then confer. We were interested in mostly exactas and trifectas. If we agreed that a certain race was wide open then we concentrated on that race and had great success. I think that not all football handicappers have handicapped horses. I feel it is a great asset and why I have a penchant for parlays that a lot of hardliners don't. The sixth sense you talk about is a gift but it can be a result of failure as much as success. But, once you have it, I agree that it makes a huge difference. Like you said, sometimes you just have to leave a game alone.
That too is a your sixth sense telling you to move on to something solid.
I would hope that anyone who is on a sports forum this far in advance of the season is way past being compulsive. The next step is to become focused. The sixth sense you talked about can develop over time into an automatic red flag that more often than not is telling you to move on to another game. Good point.
I do not know if you agree with this or not. I had a neighbor who owned and trained thoroughbreds. He taught me how to read a racing form. I was better at math, he knew horses (breeding, etc). We would study the forms every day and then confer. We were interested in mostly exactas and trifectas. If we agreed that a certain race was wide open then we concentrated on that race and had great success. I think that not all football handicappers have handicapped horses. I feel it is a great asset and why I have a penchant for parlays that a lot of hardliners don't. The sixth sense you talk about is a gift but it can be a result of failure as much as success. But, once you have it, I agree that it makes a huge difference. Like you said, sometimes you just have to leave a game alone.
That too is a your sixth sense telling you to move on to something solid.
I would hope that anyone who is on a sports forum this far in advance of the season is way past being compulsive. The next step is to become focused. The sixth sense you talked about can develop over time into an automatic red flag that more often than not is telling you to move on to another game. Good point.
Gavlam, there will always be haters on these forums, post the plays & let the results speak for themselves, you dont have to explain anything to anyone beyond what you already have said.
Russ, the more you know about any type of gaming, the more it will help you with football. Horse wagering teaches you to look for certain situations. Poker teaches you how to read and correctly recognize odds. I have been gambling since I was 9 years old. I used to go with my dad to Hollywood Park Race track. I learned how to read the form there.
I come from along line of Italinas. Many of them live in Chicago. Others lived in Vegas. I have been going to Vegas since 1959, and wagering on football since 1966. The most important thing you can do, no matter what you are wagering on, is to learn what the casino's goals are. Learn how they operate. I know how books rig a line to favor a team to get equal action. I know exactly how to pull a "bait and switch" on Joe Pub. I can spot a bad line a mile away. The problem is that those alleged "bad lines" are few and far between. I also know that 90% of what people on some sites say is B.S.
I post on another site, and all those guys could do was guess at what the lines for various games would be. When the lines came out this week, no one went down on the games other than myself and my partners. We hammered Illinois -2 1/2 vs Mizzou. The line is now up to 5. The excuse I got the most was that injuries could happen, and then we would have to "buy" our wager back. This is true, but injuries have a 50/50 chance of happening to either teamin a match-up. That is why they call it gambling. People are afraid to lose. It is part of the game. You win. You lose. It is the old risk to reward equation that you have to figure out. You have to take the least amount of risk to make the most amunt of money. It is not just about picking a team.
I am looking forward to seeing just how these guys in here do. For the most part, they seem to be pretty sharp. I do not see any homers in here yet. I love homers. They make me so much money. I make all kinds of side wagers with them on the net. Ofcourse some of them figure that they do not have to pay up because they are on the net and no one can find out who or where they are. A dumb mistake when you are wagering with a retired Peace Officer such as myself. Good luck this season.
I come from along line of Italinas. Many of them live in Chicago. Others lived in Vegas. I have been going to Vegas since 1959, and wagering on football since 1966. The most important thing you can do, no matter what you are wagering on, is to learn what the casino's goals are. Learn how they operate. I know how books rig a line to favor a team to get equal action. I know exactly how to pull a "bait and switch" on Joe Pub. I can spot a bad line a mile away. The problem is that those alleged "bad lines" are few and far between. I also know that 90% of what people on some sites say is B.S.
I post on another site, and all those guys could do was guess at what the lines for various games would be. When the lines came out this week, no one went down on the games other than myself and my partners. We hammered Illinois -2 1/2 vs Mizzou. The line is now up to 5. The excuse I got the most was that injuries could happen, and then we would have to "buy" our wager back. This is true, but injuries have a 50/50 chance of happening to either teamin a match-up. That is why they call it gambling. People are afraid to lose. It is part of the game. You win. You lose. It is the old risk to reward equation that you have to figure out. You have to take the least amount of risk to make the most amunt of money. It is not just about picking a team.
I am looking forward to seeing just how these guys in here do. For the most part, they seem to be pretty sharp. I do not see any homers in here yet. I love homers. They make me so much money. I make all kinds of side wagers with them on the net. Ofcourse some of them figure that they do not have to pay up because they are on the net and no one can find out who or where they are. A dumb mistake when you are wagering with a retired Peace Officer such as myself. Good luck this season.
Hey man, i know a guy that is a billionaire. he loves to bet on football, like one to three million a game depending on his bankroll, you know how the money management thing goes. Anyway I told him about your computer system and he nearly pissed himself. He asked me how much and i told him at least 100 million. If we could set up a meeting maybe i could get a pecentage of that. He has a 200 foot yaught in Miami maybe we can meet there.
I think using numbers to cap games in college football is a must. And I crunch plenty myself every week. But when it comes to system plays and numbers, about the only thing I can tell you is "trust but verify". You can have a team that the numbers and trends favor by a mile. But if they aren't playing well, or are on a down cycle emotionally from a previous game or games, you can throw all of these numbers and trends out the window. I've also found that many of these kinds of systems don't take the coaches into consideration. And there's nothing that can break a good trend, or even the playing field like a well coached team. The key is actually WATCHING these football games. I've seen teams whose numbers up to that point have not looked very good. But I've seen something in their games and the way they are playing that tells me they are sitting on a pretty big effort. And all of the mathmateical numbers and trends in the world won't catch it when it happens.
