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Alamo Bowl
Texas vs. Colorado
Suggested Line 1: Texas -11.77
Suggested Line 2: Texas -10.92
Suggested Line 3: Texas -12.01
Suggested Line 4: Texas -11.71
PLAY: Texas Longhorns -8 (10 Units)
The money has been coming in all week on Colorado and a lot of people are on the Buffs in this game but my System is picking Texas to win this game and win it big. I know playing in the Home State doesn't mean much based on some of the games we have seen so far and I don't put too much value into that but where I put value in my system is games played this season and Colorado have played only 5 games this season compared to 9 games played for Texas. The Longhorns won 4 of their last 5 games coming in and they looked pretty damn good in the season finale against Kansas State giving the Wildcats a beatdown to the tune of 69-31 where they gained 608 total yards of offense and were in control from the very beginning of the game. Colorado has been the surprise team to come out of the PAC 12 Conference this season and they were 4-0 going into their season finale with Utah but the Utes set them straight and beat the Buffs 38-21 in that game exposing some weaknesses on both sides of the ball. The Colorado offense has been good regardless of how you look at things and they'll get some yards against this Texas defense but the Longhorns rank #33 in the Nation against the run this season and this is where Colorado was banking on getting most of their yards tonight with the #18 running game in the Nation. Texas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus non-conference opponents and they are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus PAC 12 Conference opponents. The Longhorns are also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two schools and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings where they are the road team. Colorado comes into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in December and they are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games versus Big 12 Conference opponents. The Buffs are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as an Underdog and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up loss. This one won't be close, Texas wins big.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools.
Texas 47, Colorado 13
:toast:
Alamo Bowl
Texas vs. Colorado
Suggested Line 1: Texas -11.77
Suggested Line 2: Texas -10.92
Suggested Line 3: Texas -12.01
Suggested Line 4: Texas -11.71
PLAY: Texas Longhorns -8 (10 Units)
The money has been coming in all week on Colorado and a lot of people are on the Buffs in this game but my System is picking Texas to win this game and win it big. I know playing in the Home State doesn't mean much based on some of the games we have seen so far and I don't put too much value into that but where I put value in my system is games played this season and Colorado have played only 5 games this season compared to 9 games played for Texas. The Longhorns won 4 of their last 5 games coming in and they looked pretty damn good in the season finale against Kansas State giving the Wildcats a beatdown to the tune of 69-31 where they gained 608 total yards of offense and were in control from the very beginning of the game. Colorado has been the surprise team to come out of the PAC 12 Conference this season and they were 4-0 going into their season finale with Utah but the Utes set them straight and beat the Buffs 38-21 in that game exposing some weaknesses on both sides of the ball. The Colorado offense has been good regardless of how you look at things and they'll get some yards against this Texas defense but the Longhorns rank #33 in the Nation against the run this season and this is where Colorado was banking on getting most of their yards tonight with the #18 running game in the Nation. Texas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus non-conference opponents and they are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus PAC 12 Conference opponents. The Longhorns are also 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two schools and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings where they are the road team. Colorado comes into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in December and they are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games versus Big 12 Conference opponents. The Buffs are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as an Underdog and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up loss. This one won't be close, Texas wins big.
Trend of the Game: Texas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these schools.
Texas 47, Colorado 13
:toast:
NOTES:
1) I'm never one to make excuses and I won't start now but that was a poor job by myself with the variables used in the Oklahoma State-Miami game.
2) One of the reasons I wait until an hour before gametime to run the numbers and fix the values is because of late injury announcements and other factors. Miami had 2 late scratches 45 minutes before kickoff that I did not catch and did not include in my numbers. It happens.
3) It's also very hard to stay on track when the starting QB goes down but Perry played well enough to win, the Miami defense was atrocious. Receivers also dropped a ton of passes.
4) Funny thing is Oklahoma State's defense was just as bad but the 3 Miami turnovers (2 fumbles and one turnovers on downs) were the difference. The Canes barely turned the ball over this year.
5) This is how sports betting goes, you just can't account for certain things with numbers. I was aware of Oklahoma State's Bowl Record and included it in my variables but my system still said Miami. Tough break with King going down but we had a shot at the end.
Still very confident in what I'm doing and looking to bounce back in the night cap!
:toast:
1) I'm never one to make excuses and I won't start now but that was a poor job by myself with the variables used in the Oklahoma State-Miami game.
2) One of the reasons I wait until an hour before gametime to run the numbers and fix the values is because of late injury announcements and other factors. Miami had 2 late scratches 45 minutes before kickoff that I did not catch and did not include in my numbers. It happens.
3) It's also very hard to stay on track when the starting QB goes down but Perry played well enough to win, the Miami defense was atrocious. Receivers also dropped a ton of passes.
4) Funny thing is Oklahoma State's defense was just as bad but the 3 Miami turnovers (2 fumbles and one turnovers on downs) were the difference. The Canes barely turned the ball over this year.
5) This is how sports betting goes, you just can't account for certain things with numbers. I was aware of Oklahoma State's Bowl Record and included it in my variables but my system still said Miami. Tough break with King going down but we had a shot at the end.
Still very confident in what I'm doing and looking to bounce back in the night cap!
:toast:
