Melniko Winter Thread

[Melniko]

10/12 WEDNESDAY focusing on longshots today, I'll either get shut out or have a big day.

KEENELAND
R1 - #4 Brawndo (6-1) back to sprinting.
R2 - #10 Uptown Hustler (5-2) much the best.
R3 - #3 Extravagate (20-1) the stretch out makes sense (Arrogate), but McPeek frosty.
R4 - #12 Can't Hush This (15-1) will likely fold in the stretch, but if he doesn't...$$
R5 - #3 Penner Ash (20-1) took a lot of money at KD and flopped. Jockey upgrade today.
R6 - #5 Harmonica (8-1) bred to win early - race is wide open.
R7 - #2 Bourbon Spirit (6-1) Geroux/Cox 7 for 18 in last two weeks and I'd bet this one with Gilligan aboard.
R8 - #8 Greatheart (6-1) different animal on grass and finding his form.

DELAWARE
R8 - #2 Inedatequila (8-1) Best Bet

investing $40.00

 

[yesyes]

BEAST!!!
2479.00. If the #3 rolls
For .60 cents

nothing but ?

 

[Melniko]

10/12 WEDNESDAY results

KEENELAND
R1 - #4 Brawndo (6-1) winner $13.16 $5.44
R2 - #10 Uptown Hustler (5-2) winner $4.82 $3.64
R3 - #3 Extravagate (20-1) winner $10.96 $5.70
R4 - #12 Can't Hush This (15-1) winner $8.06 $4.72
R5 - #3 Penner Ash (20-1) 3rd
R6 - #5 Harmonica (8-1) out
R7 - #2 Bourbon Spirit (6-1) out
R8 - #8 Greatheart (6-1) out

DELAWARE
R8 - #2 Inedatequila (8-1) out

40/56.50
running total 224/230.26 (+6.26)

 

[Melniko]

10/14 FRIDAY looks like a very chalkie day, I could be in trouble.

AQUEDUCT
R2- #1 Alpine Queen (5-2) drops and gets Irad.
R3- #5 Shisun (8-1) was in over his head in last, expect a rebound effort.
R4- #6 Clash AJ (9-2) Best Bet
R5- #1 Mooney Love (3-1) 2nd time blinkers, 1st time Lasix, and he runs best off the bench.
R6- #5 Azaria (15-1) breeding and works say she belongs - worth a shot at double digits.
R7- #9 Speight'spercomete (8-1) big drop, but tough post - needs luck.
R8- #10 Wonka (5-1) improving with every run.
R9- #3 Belleshazza (8-1) she seems to be maturing, not a lot to beat today.

KEENELAND
R1- #1 Sister's Ghost (3-1) She'll gun it early and try to hang on.
R2- #12 Hendrix (15-1) Sire and trainer both well above average with firsters, could surprise.
R3- #3 Awesome Indra (4-1) This is the type of race Saffie excels at.
R4- #4 Not Yet Charlie (15-1) has worked well since stopping at KD, switch to dirt adds to appeal.
R5-#8 Isn't She Lovely (8-1) she's got plenty more upside - almost a best bet.
R6- #9 Make It Big (10-1) drops, gets Lasix, and switches to Rosario.
R7- #6 Watch This Munny (12-1) drops in class and gets more ground. Any improvement makes her dangerous.
R8- #3 Emperador (12-1) Best Bet
R9- #1 Arklow (4-1) poor effort at KD, looking for a bounceback.
R10- #12 Pudge Boy Palace (10-1) top jock with lousy trainer - strong angle.

investing $80.00

 

[Melniko]

10/14 FRIDAY results

AQUEDUCT
R2- #2 Alpine Queen (5-2) out
R3- #5 Shisun (8-1) scratch
R4- #6 Clash AJ (9-2) scratch
R5- #1 Mooney Love (3-1) scratch
R6- #5 Azaria (15-1) out
R7- #9 Speight'spercomete (8-1) out
R8- #10 Wonka (5-1) out
R9- #3 Belleshazza (8-1) out

KEENELAND
R1- #1 Sister's Ghost (3-1) out
R2- #12 Hendrix (15-1) out
R3- #3 Awesome Indra (4-1) placed $4.18
R4- #4 Not Yet Charlie (15-1) 4th
R5-#8 Isn't She Lovely (8-1) placed $6.08
R6- #9 Make It Big (10-1) out
R7- #6 Watch This Munny (12-1) placed $7.68
R8- #3 Emperador (12-1) out
R9- #1 Arklow (4-1) out
R10- #12 Pudge Boy Palace (10-1) 4th

horrible day - I think I picked a half dozen that finished dead last (two broke down).
64/17.94
running total - 288/248.20 (-39.80)

 

[Melniko]

10/15 SATURDAY bounce back day

KEENELAND
R2- #5 Royal Salute (12-1) pedigree pick, not enamored with choice of jock.
R5- #4 In Love (3-1) Lobo scorching hot, horse runs well at Keeneland.
R6- #6 Sweet Lady Ivanka (10-1) added distance will suit her, but there will be traffic to navigate through.
R9- #4 New year's Eve (9-2) if you look at both the early speed and late kick displayed by this one, she's on par with McKulick. Why not back her at much better odds? I mean, besides the Irad factor.

DELAWARE
R8- #4 Bazoo (6-1) drops to the basement for competent trainer.

LAUREL
R5- #6 Drive By Layover (9-2) horse for the course.
R8- #9 Kingpin (4-1) doesn't need the lead, race should set up nicely.

WOODBINE
R1- #6 Bright Devil (7-2) Best Bet

investing $36.00

 

[Michelangelo]

Good luck today, Niko.

Expecting to get the races back on the turf today. That helps a lot.

 

[Michelangelo]

Delaware and Laurel are off the turf. Damn.

Your pick Race #8 at Laurel has been scratched. No turf.

Keenland will be running on the turf.

 

[Melniko]

Good luck today, Niko.

Expecting to get the races back on the turf today. That helps a lot.

Thanks, good luck to you today also.

 

[Melniko]

Update to today's picks - I'm still on Bright Devil in the 1st at Woodbine, but since it's off the grass he is no longer a best bet.
With the scratch of my selection in the 8th at Laurel, I am now in for $28 today.

 

[Melniko]

10/15 SATURDAY results

KEENELAND
R2- #5 Royal Salute (12-1) 3rd
R5- #4 In Love (3-1) placed $3.36
R6- #6 Sweet Lady Ivanka (10-1) 3rd
R9- #4 New year's Eve (9-2) scratched

DELAWARE
R8- #4 Bazoo (6-1) placed $4.40

LAUREL
R5- #6 Drive By Layover (9-2) 3rd
R8- #9 Kingpin (4-1) scratched

WOODBINE
R1- #6 Bright Devil (7-2) winner $5.80 $3.40

24/16.96 - all six finished in the money, but the three shows were painful
312/265.16 (0.85 roi)

 

[Melniko]

10/16 SUNDAY

AQUEDUCT
R1- #7 Take Me To Jimmy (7-2) eventful trip in debut, now gets blinkers.
R2- #4 Magic Miss (5-1) dog with the least fleas.
R3- #3 Pianzi (3-1) needs pace, but it should be there.
R4- #8 Montatham (15-1) the addition of blinkers in last two really made a difference - price could be juicy.
R5- #2 Bobby The Tank (7-2) looks like all systems go.
R6- #4 Bossmakinbossmoves (3-1) hasn't won on a fast track, but has the Irad factor.
R7- #3 Bali's Shade (6-1) back on dirt and at lowest level ever. Has run well off the bench.
R8- #3 Too Sexy (3-1) won the Floral Park last year, repeat well within reach.
R9- #10 Clubhouse (8-1) not sure why Irad and Flav switched mounts for this race, but I'm following Mr. Ortiz. Will likely have 2,6,9,10 in my horizontals, race looks wide open.

GULFSTREAM
R2- #9 Joe Di Baggio (12-1) I like the move to tapeta for him.
R9- #8 Khozy My Boy (4-1) working well off the break. Reunites with Leonel. Outside post. Lots to like.

investing $44.00

 

[Melniko]

10/16 SUNDAY

AQUEDUCT
R1- #7 Take Me To Jimmy (7-2) 4th
R2- #4 Magic Miss (5-1) winner $12.00 $4.80
R3- #3 Pianzi (3-1) out
R4- #8 Montatham (15-1) 3rd
R5- #2 Bobby The Tank (7-2) 4th
R6- #4 Bossmakinbossmoves (3-1) out
R7- #3 Bali's Shade (6-1) out
R8- #3 Too Sexy (3-1) placed $3.20
R9- #10 Clubhouse (8-1) 3rd

GULFSTREAM
R2- #9 Joe Di Baggio (12-1) out
R9- #8 Khozy My Boy (4-1) 3rd

44/20
356/285.16 (0.80 roi)

 

[Melniko]

10/17 Monday

HORSESHOE INDIANAPOLIS
R1- #5 Endless Sunset (5-2)
R2- #1 Miracle Shoes (12-1)
R3- #3 Faire Express (6-1)
R4- #8 Unpredictable Bay (6-1)
R5- #9 Venice Beach (9-2)
R6- #7 Knocknerea (10-1)
R7- #3 Sweet Valeria (10-1)
R8- #6 Corona Grande (5-2)

Investing $32.00

 

[Melniko]

10/17 Results

HORSESHOE INDIANAPOLIS
R1- #5 Endless Sunset (5-2) 4th
R2- #1 Miracle Shoes (12-1) out
R3- #3 Faire Express (6-1) 4th
R4- #8 Unpredictable Bay (6-1) placed $5.00
R5- #9 Venice Beach (9-2) out
R6- #7 Knocknerea (10-1) placed $11.20
R7- #3 Sweet Valeria (10-1) scratched
R8- #6 Corona Grande (5-2) winner $4.60 $3.40

28/24.20
running total - 384/309.36 (0.81)

 

[Melniko]

10/19 WEDNESDAY

KEENELAND
R1 - #3 Aristocat (6-1)
R2 - #8 Sweet Truffles (8-1)
R3 - #2 Tipsy Gal (12-1)
R4 - #9 Zap Motion (5-2)
R5 - #3 Laugh And Play (6-1)
R6 - #8 Presider (7-2)
R7 - #3 Hollis (3-1)
R8 - #11 Top Gun Girl (4-1)

DELAWARE
R5 - #4 Creme Caramel (6-1)

FINGER LAKES
R4 - #3 Blood Moon (8-1)

PARX
R3 - #6 Ambitiously Placed (20-1)
R9 - #4 Horse Be With You (12-1)

investing $48

 

[Jack1999]

Good job so far Mel. Good luck today.

 

[Melniko]

Good job so far Mel. Good luck today.

Thanks, Jack - hope you are well.

 

[Jack1999]

Thanks, Jack - hope you are well.

 

[Melniko]

10/19 WEDNESDAY results

KEENELAND
R1 - #3 Aristocat (6-1) out
R2 - #8 Sweet Truffles (8-1) out
R3 - #2 Tipsy Gal (12-1) out
R4 - #9 Zap Motion (5-2) out
R5 - #3 Laugh And Play (6-1) placed $4.08
R6 - #8 Presider (7-2) out
R7 - #3 Hollis (3-1) scratched
R8 - #11 Top Gun Girl (4-1) scratched

DELAWARE
R5 - #4 Creme Caramel (6-1) out

FINGER LAKES
R4 - #3 Blood Moon (8-1) out

PARX
R3 - #6 Ambitiously Placed (20-1) placed $3.40
R9 - #4 Horse Be With You (12-1) winner $10.80 $4.40

40/19.28
running total - 424/328.64 (0.78)