looking for advice about casinos

[WVU]

For all you greenhorns that claim to be able to beat a negative expectation game I suggest you read this:
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html


here is a cut and paste of one section. This was written by one of the greatest minds in the gambling world, Michael Shackleford:

Not only do bettings systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can't even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. Furthermore, the longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expecation for that game.
I have received hundreds of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith reaches a religious fervor. However, in all things the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Yet the casinos are still standing and nobody has ever proven anything that works.
The Gambler's Fallacy
The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the "gambler's fallacy." Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler's fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell "guaranteed" get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler's fallacy. None of them work. If you don't believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic.
A common gamblers' fallacy called 'the doctrine of the maturity of the chances' (or 'Monte Carlo fallacy') falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of 'systems' have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler's neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. -- Encyclopedia Britannica (look under "gambling.")
No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... -- Probability and Measure (page 94, second edition) by Patrick Billingsley
The number of 'guaranteed' betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis. -- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein

 

[Matt]

are you going to the Bash?

No, I would like to but as I am not yet 21 there would be little point for me to be in Vegas.

If you don't have msn hit me up with an email, but I believe instant messenger conversations are much easier to discuss things then emailing back and forth.

Your call though, any help would be appreciated.

 

[Santo]

These casino threads always amuse me. The Human mind looking for patterns where none exist.

BTW: Those of you who claim you have a system to beat roulette, craps, etc.. I think Michael Shackleford is still paying $1million or so if you prove it ;-)

 

[gbogo]

see you misread my point vs the text.

I alter the game or race so the expectation is positive, I know if you played every spin blindly you would go broke, thats not the point.

put another way do you think you can make money betting stocks bonds or currencies ? the fact is knowledge is imperfect and as such patterns form to indicate the outcome.


you make me laugh so hard with the way you are trying to justify your opinion.

 

[Santo]

The problem is that what either what you're saying is false, or every casino you've played at is in breach of (at least in Nevada) gaming commission regulations. Biased wheels etc are banned. Multi-Million $ business in breach of their license, or you incorrect? I know where my money would be.

Dice Setting, if that's what you're implying, is somewhat controversial with Wong vs others, so I'd give you a bit of leeway there.

 

[WVU]

stop comparing random events to nonrandom. you are looking silly

 

[gbogo]

lets look at fibonnaci

if a market trends in one direction for 300 points
falls back to its 61.8 % retracement what are the odds of a new high or low ?

about 30 %

so if I risk 20 points i can make a minimum of 180-190 points

being that fib. are trend following systems


thats the downfall of any argument you make, you relate negative expectations which is true - but in these cases that negativity is overcome through the pattern itself.

 

[Santo]

A stock market and a roulette wheel have zero in common. One has to be legally designed and tested to be completely random, the other responds to numerous external factors.

 

[WVU]

lets look at fibonnaci

if a market trends in one direction for 300 points
falls back to its 61.8 % retracement what are the odds of a new high or low ?

about 30 %

so if I risk 20 points i can make a minimum of 180-190 points

being that fib. are trend following systems


thats the downfall of any argument you make, you relate negative expectations which is true - but in these cases that negativity is overcome through the pattern itself.

WTF? Are you fucking nuts? I am not arguing a non random event like stock trading? I am arguing a gambling game which is a random event as defined by law. You are not only naive, but thick headed to boot. I am done with you.

 

[gbogo]

santo --- the point is patterns exist in roulette the same way they do in counting cards in blackjack. the difference is in blackjack I couldnt rig the result enough to make the large bet losses even out

in roulette you get 35-1 and the patterns can be strong enough to generate up to 10 numbers in a row.

so its how you interpret patterns. for me this is what i do 20 hours a day, for someone who never looks at patterns well you just say that card counting doesnt work and patterns dont exist in the world, fine no problem

 

[gbogo]

wvu



counting cards beats blackjack right - then why is blackjack allowed to be played in casinos?

roulette has a very similar tendency if you recognise the pattern, except in this game you get 35-1.

as ive said 10 times to you before ---- your not willing to learn anything

 

[Santo]

Card counting works. There's a logical reason for that. I am 100% convinced on Card Counting. I've done it myself in the past, and know people who still do (UK Casino's caught on after the US, but have now caught on). In card counting the mathematical make-up of the deck has changed, so the probability of your next card changes, and can create +EV situations.

Card counting is as different to roulette as your previous examples (stock market and horses). In Roulette, the wheel is not allowed to be changed, the ball is not allowed to be changed, every single spin is completely, independantly, random.

I don't doubt you can beat blackjack. I don't doubt you can beat horses. Heck, I'd give you some leeway if you said you could beat Craps with dice setting. Roulette? No, sorry. You've either been lucky (positive variance), or your mind is seeing patterns that do not exist.

Edit: I will add one proviso. A group beat UK casino's with a magnetic device that attracted the ball to a certain number. They got paid out, but arrested I believe. That changed the composition of the game, but I don't think that's what you're claiming.

 

[WVU]

Thank you Santo. Losing cause though i am afraid. After all roulette pays 35-1 LMFAO

 

[patswin]

These casino threads are funny. They pop up every few months and you get people who swear they are "rigged" and the argument is always the same, you can win betting small hands and once you increase your bet size you lose. Then you get guys like WVU who have made tons of $$ playing online blackjack and clearing bonuses trying to argue with them that's legit. Just ignore them WVU you and I and alot of others know they are legit. I guess the millions of hands you have played don't mean anything LOL:money8: :money8: :money8:

 

[gbogo]

wvu - :lol: , your like all the trainees that just dont get it. they cant process information nor figure out the similarities and differences in charts

if the wheel spins 12 blacks in a row i guess theres no money to be made, if it spins 9 1st dozens you couldnt figure out how to profit from that either, you'd be happy to bet 3rd dozen. whatever waste of my time.

 

[JDeuce]

Going back a few pages in this thread to a WVU comment...

You can roll 13 sevens in a row and it will not affect your next roll one iota. Most people think like you so you are not alone.


Look...heatohio is a complete and utter moron. But a broken clock is right twice a day, and he does have a point about the probability of a chain of events.

You're right. Someone could roll 2,000 7s in a row with a pair of dice, and it has no impact whatsoever on the next roll. But by sticking to only that logic, it's the same as saying you're going to flip a coin, and you have the same chance to get tails 100 consecutive times as you do to get a 50-50 heads/tails split.

The probability of achieving the same outcome over and over again in a SEQUENCE of events left to chance is slim to none.

 

[Santo]

You're right. Someone could roll 2,000 7s in a row with a pair of dice, and it has no impact whatsoever on the next roll. But by sticking to only that logic, it's the same as saying you're going to flip a coin, and you have the same chance to get tails 100 consecutive times as you do to get a 50-50 heads/tails split.

Not quite. The reason is that there is only one combination of 100 rolls that gets you a 100/0 result, where as there are many combinations that give you 50/50.

Look at a 4-roll sample, it could go:

HHHH
HHHT
HHTH
HHTT
HTHT
HTTT

TTTT
TTTH
TTHT
TTHH
THTH
THHH

so 12 combinations there. Of the 12 combinations, P (100% Heads) = 1/12, P(50/50) = 4/12 = 1/3.

 

[heatohio]

Going back a few pages in this thread to a WVU comment...

You can roll 13 sevens in a row and it will not affect your next roll one iota. Most people think like you so you are not alone.


Look...heatohio is a complete and utter moron. But a broken clock is right twice a day, and he does have a point about the probability of a chain of events.

You're right. Someone could roll 2,000 7s in a row with a pair of dice, and it has no impact whatsoever on the next roll. But by sticking to only that logic, it's the same as saying you're going to flip a coin, and you have the same chance to get tails 100 consecutive times as you do to get a 50-50 heads/tails split.

The probability of achieving the same outcome over and over again in a SEQUENCE of events left to chance is slim to none.

Tough talk from someone talking through a fucking computer. At least you see my point though. I would be willing to bet any person on this forum that they could follow me around different casinos and I will be up money at the end of the day. I'll be in AC this weekend if anyone feels up to a nice little bet. I will probably already be out in Vegas in Aug. for the bash. My girlfriend and I may be giving Vegas a month tryout to see if we want to live there or not. Any takers let me know and we could exchange email addresses and work somthing out. WVU, I assume you are a know it all college student that has lived a very sheltered life. As soon as you enter the real world let me know. OK college boy.

 

[WVU]

Tough talk from someone talking through a fucking computer. At least you see my point though. I would be willing to bet any person on this forum that they could follow me around different casinos and I will be up money at the end of the day. I'll be in AC this weekend if anyone feels up to a nice little bet. I will probably already be out in Vegas in Aug. for the bash. My girlfriend and I may be giving Vegas a month tryout to see if we want to live there or not. Any takers let me know and we could exchange email addresses and work somthing out. WVU, I assume you are a know it all college student that has lived a very sheltered life. As soon as you enter the real world let me know. OK college boy.

you sir, are hopeless. I am much older and much wiser than you. Most here can vouch for that. You are in way over your head. You have no concept. It is people like you who move to Vegas and go bankrupt trying to make a living playing negative expectation games.

If you want to prove your system works, Michael Shackleford is offering a million bucks if your system can pass his tests as alluded earlier by Santo.

 

[Mr.Smith]

someone with a craps system is going to move to Vegas and gamble for a living? classic!