Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

I was on philsteele.com and ran across this list - Most BCS wins by a non-
BCS School (since 2003)
1. Navy (13)
Utah (13)
3. TCU (10)
4. Fresno St(9)
5. BYU (7)
6. E. Carolina (6)
7. Bowling Green (4)
New Mexico (4)
Toldeo (4)
10. UAB (3)
Houston (3)
Boise State (3)

I was surprised to see Navy at no. 1 but even more surprised to see Boise State at no. 10. Why because Boise St is the highest scoring team in college football since 2000 and also no. 1 rated for highest overall winning percentage (1999 thru 2008). I guess now we can see why. They don't play anybody. This year they play Oregon at home. I would venture to say that whoever wins that game outright probably wins against the spread. This year both teams have solid QB's returning but lost a lot and are either reloading or rebuilding. That game falls on Sept. 5th. I am not impressed with the fact that Boise State has only defeated 3 BCS teams in the past 5 years. Much to Oregon's credit Boise State is the only non-BCS team on their 2009 schedule. Last year Oregon had only Boise St and Utah State for non-BCS schools on their schedule. I am beginning to lean towards Oregon for other reasons than traditional matchups. The mental toughness that develops by playing quality opponents may be a factor in this matchup however. I realize that all Pac 10 teams play each other every year so that only leaves 3 fill in games but maybe that is to the Pac 10 teams benefit more times than not.
By the same token maybe the Boise State stats as shown above should not be compared to those of BCS teams for obvious reasons. This is Boise States biggest game of the year and it is at home. I would love to get Oregon and some points.

 

[russ1945]

If you keep track of this kind of stuff I have noticed that some schools have released up to date depth charts following their spring games.
I glanced at the one the Universit of Arizona put out and was stuck by something I was not aware of. Their front five on the OL avg. 327 lbs and their All-American TE weights 260. They go 340, 340, 308, 355, 295. My God. I have no earthly idea how athletic these guys are, etc. but that is impressive any way you look at it.

 

[russ1945]

If you keep track of this kind of stuff I have noticed that some schools have released up to date depth charts following their spring games.
I glanced at the one the Universit of Arizona put out and was stuck by something I was not aware of. Their front five on the OL avg. 327 lbs and their All-American TE weights 260. They go 340, 340, 308, 355, 295. My God. I have no earthly idea how athletic these guys are, etc. but that is impressive any way you look at it.

Nice proof reading on that post, huh! Just for comparison the University of Oklahoma front five avgs. 300, they go 308, 308, 305, 305, and 275 (center). OU also has an AA TD that weighs 261. I will be looking for somehing that can surpass the Arizona hosses. If you run across something please post it here.

 

[Conan]

I was on philsteele.com and ran across this list - Most BCS wins by a non-
BCS School (since 2003)
1. Navy (13)
Utah (13)
3. TCU (10)
4. Fresno St(9)
5. BYU (7)
6. E. Carolina (6)
7. Bowling Green (4)
New Mexico (4)
Toldeo (4)
10. UAB (3)
Houston (3)
Boise State (3)

I was surprised to see Navy at no. 1 but even more surprised to see Boise State at no. 10. Why because Boise St is the highest scoring team in college football since 2000 and also no. 1 rated for highest overall winning percentage (1999 thru 2008). I guess now we can see why. They don't play anybody. This year they play Oregon at home. I would venture to say that whoever wins that game outright probably wins against the spread. This year both teams have solid QB's returning but lost a lot and are either reloading or rebuilding. That game falls on Sept. 5th. I am not impressed with the fact that Boise State has only defeated 3 BCS teams in the past 5 years. Much to Oregon's credit Boise State is the only non-BCS team on their 2009 schedule. Last year Oregon had only Boise St and Utah State for non-BCS schools on their schedule. I am beginning to lean towards Oregon for other reasons than traditional matchups. The mental toughness that develops by playing quality opponents may be a factor in this matchup however. I realize that all Pac 10 teams play each other every year so that only leaves 3 fill in games but maybe that is to the Pac 10 teams benefit more times than not.
By the same token maybe the Boise State stats as shown above should not be compared to those of BCS teams for obvious reasons. This is Boise States biggest game of the year and it is at home. I would love to get Oregon and some points.

Russ, you above all people should have learned something about Boise St. What happened back when in that Fiesta Bowl was no fluke. They played an equal slate of nobodies that season too.

This is an EXCELLENT example of how people place too much importance on a teams SOS when they try to evaluate them and how good of a team/program they are. Strength of schedule means absolutely nothing when a team goes undefeated or has only one loss during a season. It only demonstrates a lack of enough to go on to gauge them accurately. Be careful.

However, going undefeated (or almost) is EXPECTED of a top program with a (perceived) weak schedule. Considering that criteria, Boise St's losses going back 6 or 7 years can be counted on the fingers on one hand (with the exception of one year when they were 9-3.) I don't care how you cut it, but Boise St.'s football program rates vs anyone.

Outside of Oregon, Boise St. plays no one. You are essentially correct, but if they are fortunate, watch them take out another giant come bowl season. I'd even go as far as to say that if I was a college AD looking for a good head coach, I'd take Chris Peterson over Lou Saban, Mark Richt, Les Miles etc. any day of the week.

I think Utah would also fall into that same class of consistent non-BCS dark horses that come through. Some schools have a keen talent for making great hires all around and both Boise and Utah fall into that category. Traditions are created in the present, and you don't need to look back very far to see what I am talking about. Just don't let their SOS fool you into thinking that their conference represents who they are. If anything, it's the other way around.

Can you recall any Div 1-AA teams recently that pulled off a surprise or two against Div 1-A juggernauts? When you are dealing with the cream of the crop, SOS can mean very little. You just don't know much from it. That's the most logical way to see it.

 

[Conan]

In other words, a weak SOS does not equate to being less than great. It just doesn't make them great on its own. But it doesn't make them any worse either, only UN-tested. So you just don't know.

Also, bringing beef to the table says nothing about the "grade of beef." Many successful defenses (and offenses) rely more on speed and skill than on size and it works for them. As far as offensive lines go, it comes down to both size and skill. That's where I part ways with you about Zona's line. They do not compare to Cal and USC.

 

[russ1945]

Teams like Boise State play easier schedules and sure they can get up for the big game if they only have one a year. You don't get hit with injuries like you might playing in the Pac 10 etc. I think OU took them lightly and others may have also. You line BYU, TCU, and Utah up in the Pac 10, Big 12 South, SEC, ACC and see how they do week after week against MUCH STRONGER competition. I don't understimate them I just don't give them the same credence as I would a Top 10 team who emerges out of a Big Six Conference. Yes head to head and enough time to prepare they can catch an OU or an Ala on a certain day but week after week, I don't think so.

 

[Conan]

Teams like Boise State play easier schedules and sure they can get up for the big game if they only have one a year. You don't get hit with injuries like you might playing in the Pac 10 etc. I think OU took them lightly and others may have also. You line BYU, TCU, and Utah up in the Pac 10, Big 12 South, SEC, ACC and see how they do week after week against MUCH STRONGER competition. I don't understimate them I just don't give them the same credence as I would a Top 10 team who emerges out of a Big Six Conference. Yes head to head and enough time to prepare they can catch an OU or an Ala on a certain day but week after week, I don't think so.

OK Russ. So we disagree. I do give credence to Boise's football program, moreso than a lot of SEC schools. How many years back do you need to go to find 5 losses combined (with one exception in their worst -- 9-3 season.) I would say that they get up for games every week and they've proven that they are in a different class from the rest of the WAC. Hypothetically speaking, it's a waste of time to "put them in another conference." It's heresay information at best and meaningless supposition. 100% opinion without many if any examples on which to base a conclusion. Sounds like something an SEC homey would say as he dismisses all of the inconvenient losses and remembers nothing but the wins to further bias his opinion.

You just don't know and they are difficult to rate because they don't HAVE the same SOS as a typical SEC giant, but to place them lower for the sole reason that they haven't proven themselves only means that they need to prove themselves, not that they are anything less... to be certain.

Before I would assume that they only have a game or so a year they need to get up for, that says nothing about their OOC schedule and it also dismisses the possibility that there were other good teams in the WAC in a given year aside from themselves. Even last year, which was an "off" year for them, their only loss was to TCU by a point in hostile territory.

Just be careful not to underrate them. I know of a particular poster who lost his ass on that Fiesta Bowl game a couple of years ago and he has been hardly heard from since... but that's another story. What you need to remember is that they have been the most consistent winner in all of CFB this decade. I'd give that team a wide berth before I'd look for reasons or excuses that might (or might not) explain why. They covered big lines last year as a superior team in a non-BCS conference should have done. And they pulled it off with a first year QB. They are a dangerous team in any scenario, especially on Smurf Turf where they've lost only one game going back years and years (and years.)

So much for that Oregon game gimme, but I also would like to see the Ducks prevail. But it's far from a certainty as much as the Ducks may want it and for whatever reasons. I'd wait to see a line on that one before I decide (not) to play it and instead just watch. You gotta keep your heart out of your wallet. One has nothing to do with the other. NOTHING! Try telling that to the average poster here and you can understand why the books are thriving, even in this poor economy.

But back to Boise, you take a top notch coach with the best recruits in his conference, and give them a reason to be hungry for attention and respect and you have a giant killer on your hands. They don't need time to prepare for the "big one." They are already mentally prepared and hungry, every week. And they are also very talented, year after year.

You may not realize it but your own lack of recognition and respect for them and making excuses for their success keeps them hungry, honed and sharp, seeking respect and redemption from all of CFB. You represent the masses. You have given them an advantage without realizing it.

If you can see what I'm trying to say, it will make you money. At the very least it will save you from losing it. A big part of winning at this game is knowing how to recognize and how to avoid claymores. They are EVERYWHERE!

 

[UoweDucks]

I think OU took them lightly and others may have also.

On this I agree. I think that BCS teams have taken BSU lightly. Even Oregon last yr. There will be no overlooking them this year. As a game it may be the most important opener that Oregon has had in recent memory. This fact is not lost on anyone connected to the team.

I've been told that coaches have been yelling about Boise during the drills all spring long. There is some blood boiling in Eugene.

 

[Conan]

On this I agree. I think that BCS teams have taken BSU lightly. Even Oregon last yr. There will be no overlooking them this year. As a game it may be the most important opener that Oregon has had in recent memory. This fact is not lost on anyone connected to the team.

I've been told that coaches have been yelling about Boise during the drills all spring long. There is some blood boiling in Eugene.

Underestimated? Yes. But would it have mattered? That's hard to say. Now in the case of revenge, that's a whole other matter.

This is what I like to hear. It will take nothing less than that to beat Boise on Smurf Turf. Moore is also a year older and a year wiser. That's a tall order for any team.

 

[UoweDucks]

Underestimated? Yes. But would it have mattered? That's hard to say. Now in the case of revenge, that's a whole other matter.

This is what I like to hear. It will take nothing less than that to beat Boise on Smurf Turf. Moore is also a year older and a year wiser. That's a tall order for any team.

I think it would have mattered, in fact if Belloti had put Thomas in one series earlier I believe Oregon wins that game.

For those that didn't see the game, which is everyone outside of the state of Oregon here are the highlights from an Oregon perspective. Take note of the score going into the middle of the 3rd qtr which the ducks defense "woke up" and held BSU to just two field goals for the remainder of the game. Then, frustrated by Harpers lack of throwing ability due to shoulder injury, Belloti took the redshirt of off Darron Thomas who went lights out and almost brought them back. It's worth noting that Thomas can be a very special QB. They hope to get his RS year back this year...


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[russ1945]

My comment on the pure size of the Arizona OL was not an endorsement by me as to their abilities, simply size. By comparison here are some comparisons based on recently released Depth Charts released by these schools following Spring practices. Avg weights of their OL's are as follows:
Arizona - 327 lbs
University of Oklahoma - 300 lbs
Virginia Tech - 295 lbs
Florida - 310 lbs
Alabama - 302 lbs
Georgia - 312 lbs
L.S.U. - 300 lbs
Ohio St. - 308 lbs
Penn St. - 303 lbs

So far Georgia rates second behind Arizona at an avg of 15 lbs a man.
Just blows my mind. Imagine those Geo guys running around with a 15 lb ham and it may come home. Be interesting to see their weight when the season begins.

 

[ChrisParadise]

My comment on the pure size of the Arizona OL was not an endorsement by me as to their abilities, simply size. By comparison here are some comparisons based on recently released Depth Charts released by these schools following Spring practices. Avg weights of their OL's are as follows:
Arizona - 327 lbs
University of Oklahoma - 300 lbs
Virginia Tech - 295 lbs
Florida - 310 lbs
Alabama - 302 lbs
Georgia - 312 lbs
L.S.U. - 300 lbs
Ohio St. - 308 lbs
Penn St. - 303 lbs

So far Georgia rates second behind Arizona at an avg of 15 lbs a man.
Just blows my mind. Imagine those Geo guys running around with a 15 lb ham and it may come home. Be interesting to see their weight when the season begins.

russ - i gotta admire the way you steer this back every time after they hijack and make it a pac-10 thread.

the pac-10 thread finally passed the Lane Kiffin thread in views

 

[russ1945]

CP: I really do not consciously try to steer anything on this thread. I would hope, and it is my sincerest intention, to let this thread just go in any direction. However, I would also be shocked if everyone who read and/or posted on this thread did or did not agree with me on any or everything. I started this thread out as sort of a passage way to next season, a very slow countdown to kickoff. Myself, I often interject little tidbits at random but my real intention is to share info that will help us all make wiser decisions that are based on shared information from both sides of the street. I have stated before that I am not into the conference controversies because nothing anyone can say on either side of the street will ever convince the other much less change his mind. CP I would love to hear from you concerning Tenn and the SEC just like I like to here from Conan and Ducks on the West Coast scene. You can get yourself into a trap, like what happens to me whenever I mention Florida no matter in what context it is brought into a particular subject. The fact that I am from Oklahoma is not my motivation. I got sucked into the Tebow topic and wish I had stayed out of that one in retrospect. At a certain point and time we all turn homer and sometimes we just get too personal. Some of you guys have been on here and have histories and I respect everyone who contributes to this Forum and especially the fact that many of you really see this Forum as a vehicle, a tool, and platform for intelligent and constructive conversation. If I was going to steer anyone into anything it would be for guys like you and Flsunman to pitch in, at least on this thread, and help us build up a bulletin board of information that we can access even after the season begins. You have made some good contributions, don't get me wrong, but last season officially ended with spring practice and I think we all just need to move on. I am going to continue to put information on here and you and Flsunman are as welcome as anyone to use it or not. We all had our moments on here and I don't know what we can say at this point on things like Florida, or Tennessee, or Tebow, or Conferences that has not already been said. Lets move on and kick some offshore ass. If you or anyone else on here wants some research done dump it on here and I will get to it when I can.
I am not interested in who is in the Top 25 or who is not. I just want to make an intelligent decision when Team A plays Team B. So I guess I am trying to steer this thread afterall, but only to make it better for all of us.

 

[russ1945]

Spring games slated for this weekend that I will be checking on are:
Penn St, Ohio St, U.S.C.,Vir Tech, Illinois, Minnesota, Ariz State, and UCLA.

Oregon and Oregon State have their games next weekend.

 

[russ1945]

I just went on rivals.com and obtained 22 updated rosters for some teams who have completed their spring practices. This is really a first step in my book for a serious assessment on the 2009 season. Just go into college football and click on to Teams, you can then browse to the team(s) of your choice. There should also be stats and more info from the 2008 season. Good stuff.

 

[russ1945]

I just went on rivals.com and obtained 22 updated rosters for some teams who have completed their spring practices. This is really a first step in my book for a serious assessment on the 2009 season. Just go into college football and click on to Teams, you can then browse to the team(s) of your choice. There should also be stats and more info from the 2008 season. Good stuff.

Here are a couple of tidbits of probably useless and irrelevant info I obtained from scanning the updated rosters:

Miss State's starting three LB's all weigh 245 lbs (ouch)
Kansas - all three starting LB's will be Sr's and two of them weigh over 250 lbs
The front seven for LSU average 267 lbs. (that seems like a lot to me)

 

[russ1945]

This sends chills down my spine. It appears that an ex-Toledo football player helped organize point shaving. There is an article on this whole scenario on nbcsports.msnbc.com.
Evidentally the FBI has been looking into point shaving at Toledo over a four year period. They say the scheme started in 2003 and continued until 2006 after Andrew Cuomo was no longer on the team. That's right apparently two other former players were also linked to the allegations. Cuomo admitted that he initiated the scheme and introduced numerous athletes to a Detroit area gambler in the fall on 2003. Athletic officials at Toledo have allowed federal authorities to investigate and it is believed that no current players are involved.

So do you you think this is the only school in the NCAA that has a black hole like this one? Do you think this is the only kid in America who has had this idea and/or the connections to make it happen.
Many years ago I went to a local bookie to collect some money and as I came in a guy walked out counting a lot of money. He looked familiar and I asked who was that guy who just left. I was informed that he was a SW Conference basketball official. Yes it was during basketball season. I no longer bet basketball.

Now we know it exists in college football. Is it an isolated incident or just one that was easy to handle and did not involve a big name school? Now everytime you see a suspcious fumble or a dropped pass or a missed FG do you have to consider that it could have been the result of a conspiracy. Probably not, at least we would like to think not. But the scarey thing is I had never heard anything about it until now. Maybe I am the last to know.

It is much more difficult for a player to fix a game or to shave points in football than it is in basketball. The game is more structured and the coaches make most of the calls. Officials are in a position to effect the outcome of a football game and often their calls (or non calls) have been called into question by betters and non betters alike. I guess this is just a reality check for me, something I know probably exists, but definitely nothing you or I have any control over when we wager. All the more reason that sports wagering should be legalized nationwide. Another reason to start reaping the benefits of the money that could be made on income and other taxes from Federally regulated gambing that would help eliminate illegal gambling in the U.S. and off shore. They could come into the locker rooms and educate players about the influences and possible consequences of trying to fix games. Every coach in America knows the line of his teams games and if they say they don't they are lying. My feeling is that this Toledo affair is just the tip of the iceburg.

 

[RunLeeRun]

This to me is a detriment especially in the offense happy Big 12. Most of the teams are into 3 and 4 wr sets and/or with a light tightend. If a team runs no huddle, I think these linebackers are either on the bench or will be matched up against smaller and quicker players that should exploit them unless they have incredible wheels.

 

[UoweDucks]

This sends chills down my spine. It appears that an ex-Toledo football player helped organize point shaving. There is an article on this whole scenario on nbcsports.msnbc.com.
Evidentally the FBI has been looking into point shaving at Toledo over a four year period. They say the scheme started in 2003 and continued until 2006 after Andrew Cuomo was no longer on the team. That's right apparently two other former players were also linked to the allegations. Cuomo admitted that he initiated the scheme and introduced numerous athletes to a Detroit area gambler in the fall on 2003. Athletic officials at Toledo have allowed federal authorities to investigate and it is believed that no current players are involved.

So do you you think this is the only school in the NCAA that has a black hole like this one? Do you think this is the only kid in America who has had this idea and/or the connections to make it happen.
Many years ago I went to a local bookie to collect some money and as I came in a guy walked out counting a lot of money. He looked familiar and I asked who was that guy who just left. I was informed that he was a SW Conference basketball official. Yes it was during basketball season. I no longer bet basketball.

Now we know it exists in college football. Is it an isolated incident or just one that was easy to handle and did not involve a big name school? Now everytime you see a suspcious fumble or a dropped pass or a missed FG do you have to consider that it could have been the result of a conspiracy. Probably not, at least we would like to think not. But the scarey thing is I had never heard anything about it until now. Maybe I am the last to know.

It is much more difficult for a player to fix a game or to shave points in football than it is in basketball. The game is more structured and the coaches make most of the calls. Officials are in a position to effect the outcome of a football game and often their calls (or non calls) have been called into question by betters and non betters alike. I guess this is just a reality check for me, something I know probably exists, but definitely nothing you or I have any control over when we wager. All the more reason that sports wagering should be legalized nationwide. Another reason to start reaping the benefits of the money that could be made on income and other taxes from Federally regulated gambing that would help eliminate illegal gambling in the U.S. and off shore. They could come into the locker rooms and educate players about the influences and possible consequences of trying to fix games. Every coach in America knows the line of his teams games and if they say they don't they are lying. My feeling is that this Toledo affair is just the tip of the iceburg.

I'll tell you what, there were a LOT of people on this board who made a killing betting UCONN (myself included) on this day, thx to a "tip" from a poster on the game.

2004 GAME RECAP

Eighth Annual Motor City Bowl
December 28, 2004
University of Connecticut vs University Toledo

After starting the season with two tough road loses, the eventual Mid-American Conference Champion Toledo Rockets soared into the Motor City Bowl having won nine of its last ten games. Their opponent, the UConn Huskies, boasted the Big East Conference's top offense and were riding a wave of enthusiasm surrounding the school's first-ever bowl invitation.
The stage was set for yet another Motor City Bowl offensive explosion. However, early in the first quarter, it became apparently that the explosion would be one sided.
UConn marched to the Toledo 17-yard line in seven plays on the game's opening drive, before kicker Matt Nuzie opened the scoring with a 35-yard field goal- his first of a Motor City Bowl record four field goals on the day. And after exchanging punts and recovering a Toledo fumble, UConn scored again on a five-play Dan Orlovsky pass to Jason William for a touchdown. Then after a quick three plays-and-out, UConn returnman Larry Taylor scampered 68-yards into the endzone with a Toledo punt. At the end of the first quarter, UConn held a 17-0 lead.
Early in the second quarter, the Rockets showed signs of fight, by mounting an impressive 13-play, 63-yard drive that culminated with a one yard Bruce Gradkowski touchdown run. However, UConn answered the challenge with its own 8-play, 41-yard drive. When eventual-MVP quarterback Dan Orlovsky connected with Brian Sparks for a touchdown, the Huskies led Toledo 24-7. By the end of the quarter, kicker Matt Nuzie had added two more field goals, and UConn held a commanding 30-7 led at halftime.
Despite losing its starting quarterback Bruce Gradkowski due to injury, the Rockets stormed out of the dressing room and promptly marched marched 56-yards in nine plays. A new Motor City Bowl record crowd of 52,552 watched with renewed expectation as Toledo kicker Jason Robbins kicked a 27-yard field goal to cut the UConn lead to 30-10. The Rockets' next drive saw them move 50-yards in ten plays to the UConn 22-yard line. However, hopes of a comeback were squelched when UConn linebacker Alfred Fincher intercepted a Toledo pass. From there, the Huskies drove to the Toledo 18-yard line and kicked his record-setting fourth field goal of the game, to extend the lead to 33-10.
After a back-and-forth exchange of possessions in the fourth quarter, UConn added yet another touchdown. Running back Matt Lawrence capped the game's scoring with an 11-yard rush, to bring the game to its final 39-10 score. The 2004 Motor City Bowl was a triumphant first-bowl appearance for the UConn Huskies in only its third season of Division 1A football.
​

 

[russ1945]

Ducks: See I am already paying a price for waiting so long to get on this Forum. Before I couldn't see the forest for the trees, now I am actually trying to figure out which tree is what. Go figure.