SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO –1½ +1.51 over Texas
At this particular point in time, this series appears to heavily favor the Jays. Ian Kinsler has returned from the DL, but both Josh Hamilton (knee, bruised ribs) and Elvis Andrus (hamstring tightness) will miss at least a couple of games and perhaps the entire series. The Rangers have lost three in a row and seven of their last 10 games, scoring four runs or less seven times while their pitching staff has allowed almost six runs per game over that same stretch. Toronto is third in AL scoring since the break and will face Tommy Hunter, a fly-ball pitcher that has very little chance of success at this park against this offense. Hunter is 12-2 with a 3.64 ERA but don’t be fooled by that, as he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game. Hunter has an alarming 81% strand rate and a high fly-ball rate of 44%. His xERA is almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA and these extremely fortunate real stats are something that should not be ignored. It’s also worth noting that Hunter has a 7.50 ERA in two starts vs the Jays this year and overall, the Rangers have dropped five straight to the Jays and that’s when they were going good. Ricky Romero is an elite groundball pitcher that has induced a groundball rate of 55%. He’s facing a Ranger squad that has struggled all year vs southpaws and while Romero is showing signs of fading in the second half for the second consecutive year, he’s still throwing well and has a great chance to succeed vs this laboring intruder. Jays have had a heavy dose of Yankees, Rays and Red Sox since the beginning of August and after facing that trio, an eruption of wins and runs could occur in this series beginning here. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Boise St +1.09 over VIRGINIA TECH
It’s not NFL Monday Night Football but the hype for this game is just as big and deservedly so. What we have here is the 10th ranked Hokies vs the 3rd ranked Broncos in what is perhaps the most anticipated matchup of week 1. Of course, those early season rankings are just that and you can be sure they’ll change. Thing is, the Broncos ranking is definitely legit while the Hokies ranking may not be. Va Tech has a ton of question marks on defense, where they’ll return just five starters from a year ago. The recruiting of defensive players has always been a strong suit for the Hokies and that reputation of finding the right mix of players to step in surely has the Hokies overvalued. The defense might be very good again but this is a lot to ask of them in week 1 and if anyone can exploit some inexperience and a few mistakes, it’s Kellen Moore and this Boise St. potent offense. Fact is, the Broncos are loaded. Moore is among the best in the business with a scary accuracy rate that saw him throw just three picks last season in 431 attempts. Moore also has two All-American receivers and a slew of other talent around him as well. This squad amassed an average of 42.2 points per game last season and they’re basically the same team. In fact, the Broncos return 21 starters from the team that went 14-0 last season. Oh, did we mention that the defense is solid too, as they ranked 14th in the nation in scoring defense? Now, one has to consider that they played in the much-easier WAC conference but they didn’t just beat teams, they tore them up and they also beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl 17-10. Virginia Tech is very much a one-dimensional offense in that they’ll run often and pass rarely. That works a lot of the time in college ball but against top-ranked squads it seldom works. Is Boise St really this good? Probably not but they’re much more potent than the Hokies, they’re better coached and they can really get some respect with a big win here. Take the better team with much more balance plus a tag. Play: Boise St. +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +12½ over CALGARY
Surely it would not surprise anyone to see a Stampeder blowout here, as Calgary is clearly the better squad with fewer flaws than any other team. Having said that, we’re not comfortable endorsing this big spread in this big rivalry on Labour Day. The Eskies are coming off a win and it’s truly amazing what a single win can do to team morale. It’s been said that a QB controversy is brewing in Edmonton between Ricky Ray and Jared Zabransky but that’s just plain silly, as this is Ray’s job unless he loses it on his own. Ray is still dangerous with a high pass completion percentage of 66.2% and so is the Eskies running game. The issue for the Eskies is not the offense but a defense that continues to get shredded almost every game. That defense stepped it up last week and to hang around in this game they’ll have to step it up even bigger. The Stamps are loaded everywhere and they appear to be getting stronger with each passing week. They’ve run its record to 6-2 but could easily be 8-0 if not for a lack of focus. That occasional lack of focus is very unlikely to occur here but laying 12½-points has proven over and over and over again that’s it’s just too risky. It’s for that reason we’re suggesting to take the points but we’re not betting on it. Play: Edmonton +12½ (No bets).
Toronto +4 over HAMILTON
This annual Labour Day Classic between the Tabbies and Argos has been the most unpredictable game for years and years, as anything can and will happen. You can break it down all you want but it rarely plays out as it should and therefore, taking the points is recommended. On paper, the Ticats are the better squad but these Argos have been counted out on numerous occasions already this year and they’ve responded almost every time. This is a methodical Argo team that will not dazzle anyone. Instead, they’ll come out with great special teams, a very good defense and an offense that won’t light it up but will adequately move down field with a chance to score some points. Cleo Lemon is a work in progress but he now has a half-season under his belt and he’s also had two weeks to digest it all, look at some films and get ready for this one. Remember, these two played just three weeks ago in Toronto and the Cats needed a 13-0 fourth quarter rally to win by just four points. Expect this one to be just as close and just as hard fought. Play: Toronto +4 (No bets).
TORONTO –1½ +1.51 over Texas
At this particular point in time, this series appears to heavily favor the Jays. Ian Kinsler has returned from the DL, but both Josh Hamilton (knee, bruised ribs) and Elvis Andrus (hamstring tightness) will miss at least a couple of games and perhaps the entire series. The Rangers have lost three in a row and seven of their last 10 games, scoring four runs or less seven times while their pitching staff has allowed almost six runs per game over that same stretch. Toronto is third in AL scoring since the break and will face Tommy Hunter, a fly-ball pitcher that has very little chance of success at this park against this offense. Hunter is 12-2 with a 3.64 ERA but don’t be fooled by that, as he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game. Hunter has an alarming 81% strand rate and a high fly-ball rate of 44%. His xERA is almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA and these extremely fortunate real stats are something that should not be ignored. It’s also worth noting that Hunter has a 7.50 ERA in two starts vs the Jays this year and overall, the Rangers have dropped five straight to the Jays and that’s when they were going good. Ricky Romero is an elite groundball pitcher that has induced a groundball rate of 55%. He’s facing a Ranger squad that has struggled all year vs southpaws and while Romero is showing signs of fading in the second half for the second consecutive year, he’s still throwing well and has a great chance to succeed vs this laboring intruder. Jays have had a heavy dose of Yankees, Rays and Red Sox since the beginning of August and after facing that trio, an eruption of wins and runs could occur in this series beginning here. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
Boise St +1.09 over VIRGINIA TECH
It’s not NFL Monday Night Football but the hype for this game is just as big and deservedly so. What we have here is the 10th ranked Hokies vs the 3rd ranked Broncos in what is perhaps the most anticipated matchup of week 1. Of course, those early season rankings are just that and you can be sure they’ll change. Thing is, the Broncos ranking is definitely legit while the Hokies ranking may not be. Va Tech has a ton of question marks on defense, where they’ll return just five starters from a year ago. The recruiting of defensive players has always been a strong suit for the Hokies and that reputation of finding the right mix of players to step in surely has the Hokies overvalued. The defense might be very good again but this is a lot to ask of them in week 1 and if anyone can exploit some inexperience and a few mistakes, it’s Kellen Moore and this Boise St. potent offense. Fact is, the Broncos are loaded. Moore is among the best in the business with a scary accuracy rate that saw him throw just three picks last season in 431 attempts. Moore also has two All-American receivers and a slew of other talent around him as well. This squad amassed an average of 42.2 points per game last season and they’re basically the same team. In fact, the Broncos return 21 starters from the team that went 14-0 last season. Oh, did we mention that the defense is solid too, as they ranked 14th in the nation in scoring defense? Now, one has to consider that they played in the much-easier WAC conference but they didn’t just beat teams, they tore them up and they also beat TCU in the Fiesta Bowl 17-10. Virginia Tech is very much a one-dimensional offense in that they’ll run often and pass rarely. That works a lot of the time in college ball but against top-ranked squads it seldom works. Is Boise St really this good? Probably not but they’re much more potent than the Hokies, they’re better coached and they can really get some respect with a big win here. Take the better team with much more balance plus a tag. Play: Boise St. +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +12½ over CALGARY
Surely it would not surprise anyone to see a Stampeder blowout here, as Calgary is clearly the better squad with fewer flaws than any other team. Having said that, we’re not comfortable endorsing this big spread in this big rivalry on Labour Day. The Eskies are coming off a win and it’s truly amazing what a single win can do to team morale. It’s been said that a QB controversy is brewing in Edmonton between Ricky Ray and Jared Zabransky but that’s just plain silly, as this is Ray’s job unless he loses it on his own. Ray is still dangerous with a high pass completion percentage of 66.2% and so is the Eskies running game. The issue for the Eskies is not the offense but a defense that continues to get shredded almost every game. That defense stepped it up last week and to hang around in this game they’ll have to step it up even bigger. The Stamps are loaded everywhere and they appear to be getting stronger with each passing week. They’ve run its record to 6-2 but could easily be 8-0 if not for a lack of focus. That occasional lack of focus is very unlikely to occur here but laying 12½-points has proven over and over and over again that’s it’s just too risky. It’s for that reason we’re suggesting to take the points but we’re not betting on it. Play: Edmonton +12½ (No bets).
Toronto +4 over HAMILTON
This annual Labour Day Classic between the Tabbies and Argos has been the most unpredictable game for years and years, as anything can and will happen. You can break it down all you want but it rarely plays out as it should and therefore, taking the points is recommended. On paper, the Ticats are the better squad but these Argos have been counted out on numerous occasions already this year and they’ve responded almost every time. This is a methodical Argo team that will not dazzle anyone. Instead, they’ll come out with great special teams, a very good defense and an offense that won’t light it up but will adequately move down field with a chance to score some points. Cleo Lemon is a work in progress but he now has a half-season under his belt and he’s also had two weeks to digest it all, look at some films and get ready for this one. Remember, these two played just three weeks ago in Toronto and the Cats needed a 13-0 fourth quarter rally to win by just four points. Expect this one to be just as close and just as hard fought. Play: Toronto +4 (No bets).
EVAN ALTEMUS
3 Units Navy / Maryland Over 48.5
Navy doesn't return any starters in their line backing group and only two out of seven starters on their front seven. Last season they struggled a little against power running teams such as Pittsburgh, Ohio State, and Temple. They had a good year statistically last year, but that was also boosted by playing weak offenses such as Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest, Rice, and Army. The better offenses they played had success moving the ball, despite all of the experience in the defense. However, I expect Navy's offense to be dominant this season. They return Ricky Dobbs, arguably the best quarterback in the last 20 years for Navy, as well as their two dominant left and right tackles, which is critical to their triple option offense. They also get their outstanding fullback back, and that position is so critical in this offense to keeping defenses honest. Last season the Maryland defense really struggled, giving up an average of 31 points per game and almost 400 yards per game. The Terps gave up over 30 points per game seven times last season, getting torched by every quality offense they faced. I don't look for that to dramatically change this season, and Navy's offense will be very tough for this undisciplined unit to stop. However, Maryland has some good athletes returning on offense. Navy's defense will have a hard time stopping the athletic quarterback Jamarr Robinson, who has playing experience from last season and is a junior. Last season tailback Da'Rel Scott had a problem with a broken wrist, after a great season two years ago. However, he's healthy now and should be able to run well behind three returning offensive linemen. Navy has a history of playing shootout style games against better opponents and matching score for score. I look for both teams to approach close to 30 points.
3 Units Navy / Maryland Over 48.5
Navy doesn't return any starters in their line backing group and only two out of seven starters on their front seven. Last season they struggled a little against power running teams such as Pittsburgh, Ohio State, and Temple. They had a good year statistically last year, but that was also boosted by playing weak offenses such as Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Wake Forest, Rice, and Army. The better offenses they played had success moving the ball, despite all of the experience in the defense. However, I expect Navy's offense to be dominant this season. They return Ricky Dobbs, arguably the best quarterback in the last 20 years for Navy, as well as their two dominant left and right tackles, which is critical to their triple option offense. They also get their outstanding fullback back, and that position is so critical in this offense to keeping defenses honest. Last season the Maryland defense really struggled, giving up an average of 31 points per game and almost 400 yards per game. The Terps gave up over 30 points per game seven times last season, getting torched by every quality offense they faced. I don't look for that to dramatically change this season, and Navy's offense will be very tough for this undisciplined unit to stop. However, Maryland has some good athletes returning on offense. Navy's defense will have a hard time stopping the athletic quarterback Jamarr Robinson, who has playing experience from last season and is a junior. Last season tailback Da'Rel Scott had a problem with a broken wrist, after a great season two years ago. However, he's healthy now and should be able to run well behind three returning offensive linemen. Navy has a history of playing shootout style games against better opponents and matching score for score. I look for both teams to approach close to 30 points.
Steve Duemig
Monday
20 Dime - Virginia Tech
Ok have we heard enough about poor little Boise St this week?? How they aren't included in the BCS and how they have to be so dominant and win every game just to get a supposed "shot" at a national title game. We're supposed to just throw out the fact that they play one of the easiest schedules on the planet after their opener. Last season they had the 76th hardest schedule among BCS ranked teams. This year may be even easier. However tonight they will play one and done for their shot.
They have been set up by the pollsters to get their shot should they remain undefeated throughout the season, by ranking them higher than they ever have been. Boise is a very public team and they love to bet on them, because they usually cover the big spreads. Take nothing away from them. On a given day they can give anyone trouble, but these games in the regular season are different than meaningless bowl games against disinterested opponents. Boise returns almost their entire team intact from last season, especially on defense. This team shut down a powerful Oregon attack last year in their opener but Tech will be ready for them. Lines makers opened them at -2.5 but for being such a public team someone is not buying what their selling in this game, since the line has gone down! I fully expect the public to get much more involved in this game on game day, when they usually do. So going back to their original number would not surprise me. In fact, keep an eye on this line and if you see it creeping back up, then wait for the best possible Tech number. possible 2-2.5 again. This line touched 3 in a few places but never went through the 3.
Boise is very good at shutting down the mobil QB and Thyrod Taylor of Tech is certainly that, however he did lead the nation in 20 + yard completions so he can strike quickly with the deep ball. But I believe it will be the tremendous running attack that Va Tech can unleash that will be the key difference. They will throw two 1000 yard rushers at the Boise defense and there may not be a better tandem in college football. I also look for Frank Beamer to make life in the pocket very uncomfortable for Kellen Moore, kinda like what he did against Jacory Harris of Miami last year. Plenty of blitzes and getting in his face. Plus we can never underestimate the Hokies special teams who always come up with a game changing play when they need one.
I truly think that there just might be too much pressure on Boise in this one. They have complained and whined and told the Senators that the BCS is not playing fair. Here is their one and only shot. Win, and you get to keep going. Lose and your season is pretty much done and they will be fade material all year. Too much pressure and too much hype for my liking. The silence has been deafening from the Hokies and they are being disrespected BIG TIME!
Monday
20 Dime - Virginia Tech
Ok have we heard enough about poor little Boise St this week?? How they aren't included in the BCS and how they have to be so dominant and win every game just to get a supposed "shot" at a national title game. We're supposed to just throw out the fact that they play one of the easiest schedules on the planet after their opener. Last season they had the 76th hardest schedule among BCS ranked teams. This year may be even easier. However tonight they will play one and done for their shot.
They have been set up by the pollsters to get their shot should they remain undefeated throughout the season, by ranking them higher than they ever have been. Boise is a very public team and they love to bet on them, because they usually cover the big spreads. Take nothing away from them. On a given day they can give anyone trouble, but these games in the regular season are different than meaningless bowl games against disinterested opponents. Boise returns almost their entire team intact from last season, especially on defense. This team shut down a powerful Oregon attack last year in their opener but Tech will be ready for them. Lines makers opened them at -2.5 but for being such a public team someone is not buying what their selling in this game, since the line has gone down! I fully expect the public to get much more involved in this game on game day, when they usually do. So going back to their original number would not surprise me. In fact, keep an eye on this line and if you see it creeping back up, then wait for the best possible Tech number. possible 2-2.5 again. This line touched 3 in a few places but never went through the 3.
Boise is very good at shutting down the mobil QB and Thyrod Taylor of Tech is certainly that, however he did lead the nation in 20 + yard completions so he can strike quickly with the deep ball. But I believe it will be the tremendous running attack that Va Tech can unleash that will be the key difference. They will throw two 1000 yard rushers at the Boise defense and there may not be a better tandem in college football. I also look for Frank Beamer to make life in the pocket very uncomfortable for Kellen Moore, kinda like what he did against Jacory Harris of Miami last year. Plenty of blitzes and getting in his face. Plus we can never underestimate the Hokies special teams who always come up with a game changing play when they need one.
I truly think that there just might be too much pressure on Boise in this one. They have complained and whined and told the Senators that the BCS is not playing fair. Here is their one and only shot. Win, and you get to keep going. Lose and your season is pretty much done and they will be fade material all year. Too much pressure and too much hype for my liking. The silence has been deafening from the Hokies and they are being disrespected BIG TIME!
Stan Lisowski
3* Tampa Bay +145
Devil Rays are 40-27 on the road which is actually a better mark than Boston at home. The Red Sox are just 5-10 against Tampa this season and are struggling with a 3-7 mark in their last 10 games overall. Rays are 31-15 against lefties this year and 14-5 in Niemann’s night time outings.
3* Tampa Bay +145
Devil Rays are 40-27 on the road which is actually a better mark than Boston at home. The Red Sox are just 5-10 against Tampa this season and are struggling with a 3-7 mark in their last 10 games overall. Rays are 31-15 against lefties this year and 14-5 in Niemann’s night time outings.
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati Reds +176
We all knew Ubaldo Jimenez from the first half of the season, but his numbers have dropped a bit and his team has not given him great run support as of late. Aaron Harang has always been a quality pitcher and has one of the best offenses in baseball to back him up. Look for the Reds to get a big win on the road at great value. Take Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Reds +176
We all knew Ubaldo Jimenez from the first half of the season, but his numbers have dropped a bit and his team has not given him great run support as of late. Aaron Harang has always been a quality pitcher and has one of the best offenses in baseball to back him up. Look for the Reds to get a big win on the road at great value. Take Cincinnati.
Sal Devito Facebook 6-2 TY in NCAA First 10*-
5* Navy -6.5
10* Boise St Pk - It never ceases to amaze me that BSU gets NO respect from the Oddsmakers and the Betting Public. Parity in College football is here and NOW - we saw a big bad SEC team lose to J'ville st., Utah St Hang with Ok, We saw Utah beat Pitt, We saw BYU Beat Wa, We saw Hawaii hang tough with USC, We saw Fresno st beat up on Cincy, TCU beat OSU - a no brainer -Broncos WIN EASY. Best of Luck Sal
5* Navy -6.5
10* Boise St Pk - It never ceases to amaze me that BSU gets NO respect from the Oddsmakers and the Betting Public. Parity in College football is here and NOW - we saw a big bad SEC team lose to J'ville st., Utah St Hang with Ok, We saw Utah beat Pitt, We saw BYU Beat Wa, We saw Hawaii hang tough with USC, We saw Fresno st beat up on Cincy, TCU beat OSU - a no brainer -Broncos WIN EASY. Best of Luck Sal
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-September 6th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[957] Atlanta |8*|-200|B+0|Network N/A|1:35 pm EST
[962] Chicago |8*|-150|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|2:20 pm EST
[963] Cincinnati |8*|-125|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|3:10 pm EST
[968] San Diego |8*|-150|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
[974] Detroit |8*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[982] LA Angels |8*|-170|B+0|Network N/A|9:05 pm EST
note*
Major League Baseball Premiums
2010 (-92.03) Units| In season |
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[957] Atlanta |8*|-200|B+0|Network N/A|1:35 pm EST
[962] Chicago |8*|-150|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|2:20 pm EST
[963] Cincinnati |8*|-125|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|3:10 pm EST
[968] San Diego |8*|-150|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
[974] Detroit |8*|-120|B+0|Network N/A|1:05 pm EST
[982] LA Angels |8*|-170|B+0|Network N/A|9:05 pm EST
note*
Major League Baseball Premiums
2010 (-92.03) Units| In season |
