jeff benton monday
Monday's 2-0 Sweep ...
20 DIME college football selection on <b>VIRGINIA TECH</b> over Boise State in a neutral-site contest from FedEx Field in Maryland. The line in this contest is fluatuating between Boise as a one-point favorite and a pick-em. I expect late public money to come in on the popular Broncos, so it might be wise to monietor the odds and grab the extra half-point or point should this number rise.
5 DIME baseball selection on the <b>TORONTO BLUE JAYS</b> over the Rangers in a matinee affair from Canada. The Blue Jays are a home favorite ranging from -135 to -140 deperding on where you shop. Note that you must list Ricky Romero as Toronto’s starting pitcher. If Romero does not start, this play is VOID!
<b>Virginia Tech</b>
Let’s get this out of the way first: I love everything about the Boise State football program. I think the Broncos can play with (and beat) anyone in the country. I think they have a gem of a coach in Chris Petersen. And if they get past the Hokies today and run the table, they absolutely deserve – and absolutely better receive – a shot in the BCS Championship Game.
All this said, I believe the Broncos are walking into an ambush today in Landover, Md. And it looks like the “wise guys” in Vegas agree with me, as this line has shifted from Boise State as a three-point favorite to a pick-em (some places even have Va-Tech as a one-point chalk). Think of it this way: Boise State went 14-0 last year and returns 21 of 22 starters, while Virginia Tech lost seven of 11 starters on a defense that was one of the best in the country last year. Also, it was this time last year when the Hokies opened the season at a neutral site against a highly ranked oppoaent (No. 1 Alabama) and got crushed 34-24 (Alabama outgained the Hokies 498-155).
Given those facts, why is all the sharp money coming in on Virginia Tech? I have two theories: First, as good as Boise’s defense is, the Broncos will not be able to contain dual-threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor (who is a clone of former Hokies star Michael Vick, someone who can turn nothing into something in the blink of an eye).
And while Taylor is Va-Tech’s biggest threat, he’s far from the only one, as he has two very good running backs behind him in Ryan Williams (1,655 rushing yards, 21 TDs as a freshman last year) and Darren Evans (1,265 rushing yards as a frosh in 2008 before missing last year with a knee injury). Taylor also has his top three wideouts from last year, three guys who combined for 92 catches and 10 TDs.
The other reason I’m coenvinced Virginia Tech is the right side: Since upsetting TCU in the Fiesta Bowl in January to cap their 12-0 season last year, all the Broncos have been hearing is how great they are and how they’re a national championship contender. Even though I’m sure Petersen has repeatedly instructed his players not to buy into the hype, these are still 18- to 22-year-old kids we’re talking about here. And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Boise State, which long-ago shed its little-guy image, comes into this contest overconfident. That overconfidence may very well stem from what happened in last year’s season opener, when the Broncos manhandled a very good Oregon team (ranked in the Top 10 and the eventual Pac-10 champs).
Even though this is a neutral-site contest, Virginia Tech will surely have the crowd advantage (obviously being much closer to Maryland than Boise is). Another edge for the Hokies: This will be played on a grass surface (Boise’s home field is artificial turf). Va-Tech also will be highly motivated to atone for last year’s opening loss to Alabama in Atlanta. And let’s not forget that while the Broncos are justifiably ranked #3 in the nation, Virginia Tech isn’t far behind at #10.
In the end, I’ll be shocked if this isn’t a very competitive contest throughout, but I look for Taylor to be the difference-maker in the fourth quarter and I see a 27-23 Virginia Tech win.
<b>Blue Jays</b>
Lots of factors working in Toronto’s favor today, starting with the mound matchup. Although the overall numbers show that Texas right-hander Tommy Hunter (12-2, 3.64 ERA) is superior to Blue Jays southpaw Ricky Romero (11-8, 3.60), they don’t show that Romero has been a much different pitcher inside the Rogers Centre (5-3, 2.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) than on the road (6-5, 4.22 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). Likewise, Hunter’s 3.16 home ERA is more than a run better than his 4.29 road ERA.
One more note about these two pitchers: Hunter has given up 10 runs (four home runs) in two career starts against the Blue Jays (12 innings), while Romero has faced the Rangers on three ocrasions and allowed a combined two runs and 15 hits (five hits in each contest) over 22 1/3 innings. Romero has beaten Texas twice this season, including a 6-0 home victory on May 15 when he threw a complete-game shutout and struck out 12 (he’s whiffed 22 Rangers in 22 1/3 innings).
While Toronto was avoiding a three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium yesterday – they ended the Yankees’ eight-game winning streak with a 7-3 win – Texas failed to do the same in Minnesota, falling 6-5. The Rangers – who lost start outfielder Josh Hamilton to a rib injury over the weekend – have now dropped seven of their last 10 overall and they’re 4-11 in their last 15 road games. Additionally, they’ve dropped seven of their last nine against left-handed starters, 21 of their last 29 road games against winning teams and five of seven vs. A.L. East opponents. Texas has also lost seven straight times as an underdog.
Conversely, Toronto is 41-19 in its last 60 games as a favorite and 28-12 in its last 40 home games against opponents that have a losing road record (and Texas is now 32-35 on the highway). Finally, since losing 5-4 at Texas on Opening Day this year, the Blue Jays have beaten the Rangers five straight times (including two wins behind Romero), and the Jays have won the last five clashes in a row north of the border.