JONES' BASES

[Mr.Jones]

My computer gentlemen is half past dead. Been that way all afternoon. Managed to get these into Journey's thread before 8:00. So I will not consider the first a past post. Took till now to get in here. Could be my last post till I get this thing working:

Texas +138 [GA]
Los Angeles +107 [GA]

SSI, sorry I couldn't get back to you. This should answer your question. GL.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Saturday: 1-1 +0.38
YTD: 33-22 +19.68
Sunday:
Colorado +138 [5Dimes early overnights]
Baltimore +105 [5Dimes early overnights]
NYY +110 [Grande]

Have some comments about the first two and not one word about the third.

Biggest problem I have with the Colorado pick is Houston road record BUT they have to sweep against Joe Kennedy with Wade Miller. The 3-12 6.13 at Tampa Bay last year Joe Kennedy. Kennedy so far this year is 2-0 2.08 at Coors. He's a cocky kid too. He is 3 for 3 1.000 QS. My theory is that it will take a few turns around the league before the National Legue hitters pick up the quirky LH delivery across his body.

In the minors no one could touch him at all. And when he first came up in the AL he had much greater success when that delivery was new and no one had seen it. You just got to watch him throw behind a screen. Scouts can't help a hitter with it. Never pitched against Houston.
Miller is OK, he's 2-1 3.32. Better than last year projected and is lifetime 4-1 4.68 vs Colorado. 1-1 5.11 at Coors. Best thing I got going here is Joe Kennedy and Coors Field where the Rockies paid $12.69 last year and $7.65 as the dog while losing 88 games all told. Why not take the generous +138?

Hallady/Ponson. Two very good pitchers. Halladay is better. Ponson is at home. So far ERA's almost identical high 3's. Halladay is 1-3 Ponson is 2-0. Balt is 10-6 7-3 last 10. Toronto is 5-12 3-7 last 10. Balt averaging 5.92 runs per game. Tor 3.86. Baltimore sucked last year and paid $7.15 as a home dog while losing 91 all told. Why not take the generous +105.

As for the "April Classic," why don't I just keep my mouth shut and let everyone enjoy!!!
GL and Good Night.

 

[stewie21]

Great Job thus far Mr. Jones...
Here's to a profitable MLB season

 

[Mr.Jones]

Adding:

Milwaukee +102 {5Dimes overnights still up not long ago]

That should do it. Good Luck to everyone today.

to Talladega now.

 

[Mr.Jones]

BTW, Thank you Stewie 21. We need 2-2 and all is good. GL

 

[Fishhead]

Well, it was nice to salvage the one game to avoid complete disaster.

Tough beat in the Yankee game.

Back to the chalkboard tommorrow.

See ya then sir.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Funny thing is that I had been doing well sticking with many times only my two best of the day and getting a split with the dogs. I put these in in the order I liked them today. Got a little greedy maybe. The Milwaukee play was forced this morning no doubt about it.

Was just looking at what a nice dog the Cubbies with Zambrano might be if only the Unit wasn't 12-0 2.13 against them. Soprano and Deadwood time now, then back to the grind.
Later.

 

[Fishhead]

Mr. Jones just informed me via telephone that he is having major computor problems and may not be online for at least the next 24 hours.

He has no plays today.

 

[majbrit]

Good work!

 

[Mr.Jones]

Sunday: 1-3 -1.62
YTD: 34-25 +18.06
Monday: No Plays
Tuesday:

Oakland +103

Just got the new computer home and set up a few hours ago. Hopefully, I'll see something else I like. Just really beginning to look at today's games GL.

 

[rscl31]

hey Mr. Jones:

What do you think of these dogs?

Tampa
Pittsburg

Leaning towards
SF
Milwaukee

Just asking for your opinion.

Thanks in advance.

 

[rscl31]

SF
Milw
are slight favs

 

[Fishhead]

Jones- Dont forget to enter the SKYBOOK contest today.

Have a good day sir.

Hope you like your new PC

 

[Mr.Jones]

Adding:

Tampa Bay +182 [The Greek a little while ago]

I've waited long enough. This can't go much higher I don't think. Got to be someone out there besides a few of us here to see value in Paul Abbott right now. This is a hot pitcher. Clubs not really going that good will tend to rally around a guy who has been throwing this well. They believe they can steal a win with him right now, so they can.

Answers your question in part rscl31. I'm still looking at those other games.

Apparently Paul Abbott has been flying completely under the radar. 3 for 3 in quality starts. A 7 inning winning shut-out, 4 hit effort against the Chisox on the road on April 16. 2-1 with a 2.37. Compare the WHIP's if you like. Obviously this has not been lost on Fishhead, who attended Abbott's first start of the year...a strong outing against the Yankees back when they still posed a threat.

OK, the Red Sox probably win. This whole write up may well blow up in my face. Odds are it will. And while I won't ever bet on a let down [this is a bet on Abbott], if there is such a thing as a let down...I give you the Sox tonight. Perfect opportunity for the Rays to sneak in and out with a W.

+182. WTF. Abbott is one of the league's early leaders in ERA. Ride him till he stumbles. The Rays did not roll over for the Sox last year either. GL and don't let me sway you.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Thanks for the reminder Fish. I might have forgot like I did with putting a team in bucfan's V-Wager contest last week. My computer is cheap but nice. Hopefully it will stand up to the abuse I put these things through. Good Luck to us tonight my friend.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Adding:

Baltimore -104 [Pinnacle]

 

[Mr.Jones]

Tuesday: 0-2 -2.04
YTD: 34-27 +16.04

Wednesday:

San Diego -1.5 +111 [Pinnacle]

Bad couple of days. Vargas should not keep this game close.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Wednesday: 0-1 -1.00
YTD: 34-28 +15.04

Thursday:

Pittsburgh +140
St. Louis +102
Detroit +135
Tampa Bay +135 [First Game]

All early games. We'll see how they go. Be careful...I have hit a brick wall. I have comments....not about the games but some things in general. But need to get these up now. Good Luck and sorry for some bummer plays the last few days.

 

[Mr.Jones]

Just want to add several general comments here at the risk of again being too wordy.

First: Anybody who bothers with this will notice that my record in this thread is a bit different than what it is in Journeyman's tracking thread. The reason for this is that I rather habitually forget to post a pick I have here into there once a week or so and apparently last night, I thought I had a play in here that I put in there only to find it wasn't in here. Also he doen't track some things such as team totals.

Second: I've hit a brick wall that I have been missing most of the month by inches. I've been losing. I hate losing. So I try to figure out what I been doing differently and this is what I have been able to figure out. Sure a few bad beats but also a few bad picks recently. And for sure streaks like this and worse will be commonplace. The season is simply too long. But paralysis by overanalysis to the extreme that I have been guilty of can be avoided. A fear of "protecting your record" or a fear of protecting your unit to the extreme can be avoided. This results in a fear of decent sized dogs. I know my patterns and weak points and all I have to do generally is look right at these two things.

Third: I am making changes. Today I looked at the card only at mid-morning. Saw some things I liked. Checked a few things and pulled the trigger. Kinda like the way it was a few weeks ago.

Finally: I don't want to sound like anykind of expert. I think I have stressed that I am not. Remeber my modest goal is to be ahead at the end of the year. Some of you guys know more than I ever will about gambling. I know a bit. But I do know this game rather well, though that never helped much till I learned something about betting it. I learned the hard way too. But I want to say one thing to the newer players and I learned this myself the hard way.

I strongly, repeat strongly, discourage you when you hit a streak like mine or worse to think twice before you succumb to the following siren call. PLEASE FORGET the idea of getting out of it and recouping your losses by trying to sneak in a few multiple unit heavy fav plays. I speak from experience and it's a long summer when all you got to look forward to is when they'll publish the first of the pre-season football mags. My picks so far today could lose 4 units. I can handle that and still be fine tomorrow. The dogs will hit sooner or later.

You vets forgive this elementary advice please. But there are a few young un's
here who will do just what I described at some point this year to the joy of the BM's. Here's hoping these words can keep even one guy from doin so. Good Luck guys.

 

[barman]

Sounds like you're right on track.

We are in similar boat.

After a very excellent run in our preefered sport - NHL - over past couple months, we also started using MLB to a modest degree and have had very modest results.

My posted plays have shown a small profit, but my actual wagers have been tweaked up a bit as I have hoped to get a bit lucky and score a nice couple of wins.

In fact, my base unit of $20 was twice amped up, once for a $100 play and the other was a $55 play...both lost, thus wiping out my otherwise +10 units or so since Opening Day.

Accordingly, we are taking a week to ten days off while we allow the early season numbers to shake down a bit and also to get another 2-3 starts per SP for better evaluation in remainder of season.

Keep jammin' Jones, and I look forward to us meeting asap at that Selmons...

Though to tell ya the truth, I kinda wonder if we could come up with a more central location on accounta it seems you, Fish and I are only interested participants at this moment?

Mayhaps over on Dale Mabry/Fletcher area?