Jersey Dude's MLB 2016 Moneymakers

[champb21]

Thanks for explaining and wish u a successful season

No, 21% means that is a 21% gained compared with the starting bank.
Starting bank is 100%

Unit sizes are much variable as you can see, and can be anywhere between 0.2% -3% to "win" on any play.

But considering the record of 142 W - 93 L so far, and that the average odds were not worst than -125, if betting "to win" 2.5% of bank on any play, right now that would mean 64.37% gain on the bankroll (25.75 units).
I have no idea what may be the average odds, but I don't think they are pretty far from -125...

So considering the results until now, the conclusion would be that I would be doing way better if just simply wager every play to win 2.5% of the starting bank. But it's a long season, and according to my backtesting the win ratio so far is better that what that should be.

It's at 60.42% right now... no way that's going to be near that high over the long run with so many plays each day.
(But I would be happy if I'm wrong!)

 

[jersey_dude]

Sunday, May 1 2016

0.4%: Tampa Bay +110 / 1:10 PM
0.4%: Chi. White Sox -120 / 1:35 PM
0.3%: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh UNDER 8 +100 / 1:35 PM
0.3%: Miami at Milwaukee OVER 9 -125 / 2:10 PM
0.2%: Washington at St. Louis OVER 7 -110 / 2:15 PM
0.2%: Chi. Cubs -1 -153 / 2:20 PM
0.2%: Texas -109 / 3:05 PM
1.6%: San Diego at LA Dodgers UNDER 6.5 -115 / 4:10 PM
0.6%: Colorado +105 / 4:10 PM
0.2%: Colorado at Arizona UNDER 9 -105 / 4:10 PM
0.6%: NY Yankees at Boston UNDER 7 -110 / 8:05 PM

 

[jersey_dude]

Absolutely fantastic Saturday ! Great Job.

Thanks hilltop!

 

[jersey_dude]

Just a quick note to all those who may follow my plays:


Guys, use caution in the size of your wagers when following!


As I wrote in the first post of this thread, these are not my main plays.
(For those I push the trigger just about 5 minutes before the lines are closing, and for this reason are no good to share them. 2-4 plays per day...)

It's true that my back-testing shows that the capping method I am using here and the money management should work very well over the long run. But I was able to back-test just for 5-5 segments of 1 week each from the last MLB season and this NBA season, because doing that is extremely laborious, and I had no time to do more.

To come up with these plays and the % to wager for each of them takes 2.5-3 hours of solid work each day.
So you can understand now why more extended back-testing was not possible. The picks are not "automatic", and I need to analyze each and every game on the board every day.

Because of the lack of thoroughly enough back testing you need to use caution.
Like I do... I only use a bank of $2,000 with these plays, which is a lot smaller than like what I'm using with my main picks.

The proper "back-testing" is going on right now, in this thread.

 

[candylicker]

go ahead and post main plays,,if you can....I can place my wager up to 5 min within 1st pitch or live bet..
Thanks

 

[jersey_dude]

Sunday's results

0.4%: Tampa Bay +110 = 1-5, Lost 0.364%
0.4%: Chi. White Sox -120 = 7-1, Won 0.4%
0.3%: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh UNDER 8 +100 = 6-5, Lost 0.3%
0.3%: Miami at Milwaukee OVER 9 -125 = 5-14, Won 0.3%
0.2%: Washington at St. Louis OVER 7 -110 = 6-1, Pushed
0.2%: Chi. Cubs -1 -153 = 3-4, Lost 0.306%
0.2%: Texas -109 = 6-9, Lost 0.218%
1.6%: San Diego at LA Dodgers UNDER 6.5 -115 = 0-1, Won 1.6%
0.6%: Colorado +105 = 6-3, Won 0.6%
0.2%: Colorado at Arizona UNDER 9 -105 = 6-3, Pushed
0.6%: NY Yankees at Boston UNDER 7 -110 = 7-8, Lost 0.66%

Record of the day: 4 W - 5 L - 2 P / +1.052% <wbr>
Overall record: 146 W - 98 L - 7 P / +22.54%

 

[Rich3227]

Any action tonight jersey..?.. let's go brother....lol

 

[Salsantorre]

Great job! Just saw this thread for the first time. Really, very nice.

 

[jersey_dude]

Monday, May 2 2016

0.6%: Chi. Cubs at Pittsburgh OVER 7 -105 / 7:05 PM
0.7%: Toronto -1 -118 / 7:05 PM
0.5%: Atlanta +185 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Philadelphia at St. Louis OVER 7 -122 / 8:15 PM
0.2%: Houston -1 -140 / 8:10 PM
0.2%: Kansas City -115 / 8:15 PM
0.2%: Colorado -116 / 10:10 PM
0.2%: Minnesota at Houston OVER 8 -110 / 8:10 PM

 

[Rich3227]

Thanks jersey....good luck tonight.

 

[jersey_dude]

Thanks Sal and Rich!

 

[jersey_dude]

Yesterday's results

0.6%: Chi. Cubs at Pittsburgh OVER 7 -105 = 7-2, Won 0.6%
0.7%: Toronto -1 -118 = 1-2, Lost 0.826%
0.5%: Atlanta +185 = 1-4, Lost 0.27%
0.2%: Philadelphia at St. Louis OVER 7 -122 = 3-10, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Houston -1 -140 = 2-6, Lost 0.28%
0.2%: Minnesota at Houston OVER 8 -110 = 6-2, Pushed
0.2%: Kansas City -115 = 0-2, Lost 0.23%
0.2%: Colorado -116 = 1-2, Lost 0.232%

Record of the day: 2 W - 5 L - 1 P / -1.038% <wbr>
Overall record: 148 W - 103 L - 8 P / +21.502%

 

[jersey_dude]

Tuesday, May 3 2016

1.1%: Texas +165 / 7:05 PM
0.8%: NY Yankees at Baltimore OVER 8 -105 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: Chi. Cubs -1 -142 / 7:05 PM
1.6%: LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay UNDER 8 -125 / 7:10 PM
0.4%: NY Mets -1 -159 / 7:10 PM
0.3%: LA Dodgers +136 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: San Francisco -137 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Atlanta at NY Mets UNDER 7 +100 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Arizona at Miami UNDER 8.5 -105 / 7:10 PM
0.4%: Minnesota +136 / 8:10 PM
0.4%: Washington +110 / 8:15 PM
0.2%: Seattle +106 / 10:05 PM
0.4%: San Diego -117 / 10:10 PM

 

[Rich3227]

Good luck tonight jersey

 

[indiana]

J/dude............nicely done YTD..........good luck with your action tonight.........indy

 

[jersey_dude]

Tuesday's results

1.1%: Texas +165 = 1-3, Lost 0.667%
0.8%: NY Yankees at Baltimore OVER 8 -105 = 1-4, Lost 0.84%
0.2%: Chi. Cubs -1 -142 = 7-1, Won 0.2%
1.6%: LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay UNDER 8 -125 = 10-5, Lost 2%
0.4%: NY Mets -1 -159 = 0-3, Lost 0.636%
0.3%: LA Dodgers +136 = 10-5, Won 0.3%
0.2%: San Francisco -137 = 3-1, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Atlanta at NY Mets UNDER 7 +100 = 3-0, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Arizona at Miami UNDER 8.5 -105 = 4-7, Lost 0.21%
0.4%: Minnesota +136 = 4-6, Lost 0.294%
0.4%: Washington +110 = 6-7, Lost 0.364%
0.2%: Seattle +106 = 8-2, Won 0.2%
0.4%: San Diego -117 = 6-3, Won 0.4%

Record of the day: 6 W - 7 L / -3.511% <wbr>
Overall record: 154 W - 110 L - 8 P / +17.991%

 

[jersey_dude]

My worst day so far as per % lost.
By far not the worst as per W and L.

 

[jersey_dude]

Wednesday, May 4 2016

Early games:

1%: Atlanta +194 / 1:10 PM
0.5%: Kansas City +136 / 2:15 PM
0.2%: Washington at Kansas City OVER 7 or 7.5 * / 2:15 PM

No overnight line for the Over 7 (just for the Over 7.5) at 5 Dimes.
Take the Over 7 if odds are not worst than -120, otherwise take the Over 7.5.
For record keeping I will consider the odds from around noon.

 

[jersey_dude]

Wednesday, May 4 2016
(Continued)

1.1%: Toronto -1 -138 / 7:05 PM
1%: NY Yankees at Baltimore UNDER 9 -120 / 7:05 PM
2%: LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay OVER 7 -110 / 7:10 PM
0.4%: Arizona at Miami OVER 7.5 +100 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Miami -1 -132 / 7:10 PM
0.6%: Houston -1 -122 / 8:10 PM
0.2%: Boston at Chi. White Sox UNDER 8 -110 / 8:10 PM
0.4%: Philadelphia +145 / 8:15 PM
0.2%: Philadelphia at St. Louis UNDER 7.5 -115 / 8:15 PM

 

[jersey_dude]

Wednesday's results

1%: Atlanta +194 = 0-8, Lost 0.515%
0.5%: Kansas City +136 = 2-13, Lost 0.368%
0.2%: Washington at Kansas City OVER 7.5 +110 = 13-2, Won 0.2%
1.1%: Toronto -1 -138 = 4-3, Pushed
1%: NY Yankees at Baltimore UNDER 9 -120 = 7-0, Won 1%
2%: LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay OVER 7 -110 = 5-8, Won 2%
0.4%: Arizona at Miami OVER 7.5 +100 = 3-4, Lost 0.4%
0.2%: Miami -1 -132 = 4-3, Pushed
0.6%: Houston -1 -122 = 16-4, Won 0.6%
0.2%: Boston at Chi. White Sox UNDER 8 -110 = 5-2, Won 0.2%
0.4%: Philadelphia +145 = 4-5, Lost 0.276%
0.2%: Philadelphia at St. Louis UNDER 7.5 -115 = 4-5, Lost 0.23%

Record of the day: 5 W - 5 L - 2 P / +2.211% <wbr>
Overall record: 159 W - 115 L - 10 P / +20.202%