Jersey Dude's MLB 2016 Moneymakers

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Sunday, May 8 2016

2.6%: LA Dodgers at Toronto OVER 9.5 -110 / 1:05 PM
0.3%: LA Dodgers +144 / 1:05 PM
0.9%: Philadelphia at Miami UNDER 7.5 -125 / 1:10 PM
0.7%: Kansas City +118 / 1:10 PM
0.7%: Texas at Detroit OVER 8.5 -125 / 1:10 PM
0.6%: Texas +132 / 1:10 PM
0.4%: Milwaukee at Cincinnati OVER 8.5 -120 / 1:10 PM
0.8%: Arizona at Atlanta UNDER 8.5 -120 / 1:35 PM
0.8%: Baltimore -1 -111 / 1:35 PM
0.6%: Arizona -144 / 1:35 PM
1.2%: Seattle +101 / 2:10 PM
0.4%: St. Louis -117 / 2:15 PM
0.2%: San Francisco -1 -137 / 4:05 PM
0.4%: NY Mets at San Diego OVER 7.5 -115 / 4:40 PM
0.3%: NY Mets -148 / 4:40 PM
0.2%: Boston at NY Yankees OVER 8 -120 / 8:05 PM
 

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I'm again on the wrong side of the line changes for the Dodgers/Jays game.
The overnight line was everywhere 8.5, around 9 AM jumped to 9, then just before 11 AM to 9.5. :(
 

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Sunday's results

2.6%: LA Dodgers at Toronto OVER 9.5 -110 = 4-2, Lost 2.86%
0.3%: LA Dodgers +144 = 4-2, Won 0.3%
0.9%: Philadelphia at Miami UNDER 7.5 -125 = 6-5, Lost 1.125%
0.7%: Kansas City +118 = 4-5, Lost 0.593%
0.7%: Texas at Detroit OVER 8.5 -125 = 8-3, Won 0.7%
0.6%: Texas +132 = 8-3, Won 0.6%
0.4%: Milwaukee at Cincinnati OVER 8.5 -120 = 5-4, Won 0.4%
0.8%: Arizona at Atlanta UNDER 8.5 -120 = 5-3, Won 0.8%
0.8%: Baltimore -1 -111 = 11-3, Won 0.8%
0.6%: Arizona -144 = 5-3, Won 0.6%
1.2%: Seattle +101 = 1-5, Lost 1.188%
0.4%: St. Louis -117 = 5-10, Lost 0.468%
0.2%: San Francisco -1 -137 = 0-2, Lost 0.274%
0.4%: NY Mets at San Diego OVER 7.5 -115 = 4-3, Lost 0.46%
0.3%: NY Mets -148 = 4-3, Won 0.3%
0.2%: Boston at NY Yankees OVER 8 -120 = 5-1, Lost 0.24%

Record of the day: 8 W - 8 L / -2.708% <wbr>
Overall record: 186 W - 143 L - 11 P / +13.016%
 

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Monday, May 9 2016

0.5%: NY Yankees -130 / 7:05 PM
0.4%: Pittsburgh -120 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Boston -132 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Oakland at Boston UNDER 8.5 -105 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Milwaukee at Miami OVER 7.5 -115 / 7:10 PM
0.6%: San Diego at Chi. Cubs UNDER 7.5 -125 / 8:05 PM
0.9%: Houston +106 / 8:10 PM
0.5%: Baltimore +108 / 8:10 PM
0.2%: Baltimore at Minnesota OVER 8.5 -105 / 8:10 PM
0.7%: Arizona at Colorado UNDER 10.5 -105 / 8:40 PM
3%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers UNDER 7 +100 / 10:10 PM
0.3%: Tampa Bay +122 / 10:10 PM
0.4%: Toronto -120 / 10:15 PM
0.4%: Toronto at San Francisco UNDER 8 -115 / 10:15 PM
 

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Monday's results

0.5%: NY Yankees -130 = 6-3, Won 0.5%
0.4%: Pittsburgh -120 = 2-3, Lost 0.48%
0.2%: Boston -132 = 14-7, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Oakland at Boston UNDER 8.5 -105 = 7-14, Lost 0.21%
0.2%: Milwaukee at Miami OVER 7.5 -115 = 1-4, Lost 0.23%
0.6%: San Diego at Chi. Cubs UNDER 7.5 -125 = Postponed
0.9%: Houston +106 = 7-1, Won 0.9%
0.5%: Baltimore +108 = Postponed
0.2%: Baltimore at Minnesota OVER 8.5 -105 = Postponed
0.7%: Arizona at Colorado UNDER 10.5 -105 = 10-5, Lost 0.735%
3%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers UNDER 7 +100 = 4-2, Won 3%
0.3%: Tampa Bay +122 = 2-5, Lost 0.246%
0.4%: Toronto -120 = 3-1, Won 0.4%
0.4%: Toronto at San Francisco UNDER 8 -115 = 3-1, Won 0.4%

Record of the day: 6 W - 5 L / +3.499% <wbr>
Overall record: 192 W - 148 L - 11 P / +16.515%
 

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Tuesday, May 10 2016

1.1%: NY Yankees -1 -132 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: Kansas City at NY Yankees OVER 7 +100 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: Washington -1 -132 / 7:05 PM
1.3%: Philadelphia at Atlanta OVER 7.5 +100 / 7:10 PM
0.6%: Cincinnati +121 / 7:10 PM
0.5%: Oakland at Boston OVER 9.5 -115 / 7:10 PM
0.4%: Milwaukee at Miami UNDER 8.5 -110 / 7:10 PM
0.6%: San Diego at Chi. Cubs UNDER 7.5 -125 / 8:05 PM
1.5%: Houston -130 / 8:10 PM
0.5%: Baltimore -115 / 8:10 PM
0.2%: Baltimore at Minnesota OVER 8 +100 / 8:10 PM
1%: Arizona at Colorado OVER 10.5 -115 / 8:40 PM
0.2%: Arizona +114 / 8:40 PM
0.4%: LA Angels -123 / 10:05 PM
2.8%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers UNDER 7 +105 / 10:10 PM
0.4%: Seattle +113 / 10:10 PM
 

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Tuesday's results

1.1%: NY Yankees -1 -132 = 10-7, Won 1.1%
0.2%: Kansas City at NY Yankees OVER 7 +100 = 7-10, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Washington -1 -132 = 4-5, Lost 0.264%
1.3%: Philadelphia at Atlanta OVER 7.5 +100 = 3-2, Lost 1.3%
0.6%: Cincinnati +121 = Postponed
0.5%: Oakland at Boston OVER 9.5 -115 = 5-13, Won 0.5%
0.4%: Milwaukee at Miami UNDER 8.5 -110 = 10-2, Lost 0.44%
0.6%: San Diego at Chi. Cubs UNDER 7.5 -125 = 7-8, Lost 0.75%
1.5%: Houston -130 = 0-4, Lost 1.95%
0.5%: Baltimore -115 = 5-3, Won 0.5%
0.2%: Baltimore at Minnesota OVER 8 +100 = 5-3, Pushed
1%: Arizona at Colorado OVER 10.5 -115 = 5-1, Lost 1.15%
0.2%: Arizona +114 = 5-1, Won 0.2%
0.4%: LA Angels -123 = 1-8, Lost 0.492%
2.8%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers UNDER 7 +105 = 2-3, Won 2.8%
0.4%: Seattle +113 = 6-4, Won 0.4%

Record of the day: 7 W - 7 L - 1 P / -0.646%
Overall record: 199 W - 155 L - 12 P / +15.869%
 

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Wednesday, May 11 2016

Early games:

0.3%: Baltimore -105 / 1:10 PM
0.2%: Baltimore at Minnesota OVER 9 -105 / 1:10 PM
0.4%: Texas -135 / 2:05 PM
2.4%: Cleveland -114 / 2:10 PM
1.4%: Arizona at Colorado UNDER 11 -125 / 3:10 PM
0.3%: Seattle -103 / 3:40 PM
 

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Wednesday, May 11 2016
(Continued)

0.4%: Detroit +160 / 7:05 PM
0.4%: NY Yankees -144 / 7:05 PM
1.4%: Philadelphia at Atlanta UNDER 8 -120 / 7:10 PM
0.6%: Cincinnati +124 / 7:10 PM
0.6%: Milwaukee at Miami OVER 8.5 -110 / 7:10 PM
0.4%: Oakland at Boston OVER 9 -125 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Milwaukee +145 / 7:10 PM
0.9%: San Diego at Chi. Cubs OVER 7.5 -110 / 8:05 PM
0.6%: St. Louis -134 / 10:05 PM
2.8%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers UNDER 7 -135 / 10:10 PM
0.2%: LA Dodgers -103 / 10:10 PM
 

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Keep at it. Things will turn around. I have noticed your bigger plays seem to have been a miss lately which will hurt the overall gain. They will come through.
 

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Keep at it. Things will turn around. I have noticed your bigger plays seem to have been a miss lately which will hurt the overall gain. They will come through.

Thanks.
You're right with losing all my big plays.
It's almost ridiculous, it seems that in the last week or so I have lost 90% of all my bigger plays.

For example today on my early plays I have 4 W (+1.2% total) and 2 L (-4.486% total), the losses being obviously the big plays.
Because of these, it looks it will be another loser day, unless a wonder won't happen in the night games.

It seems that my money management is kicking my butt big time... :)!/
 

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Wednesday, May 11 2016 results

0.3%: Baltimore -104 = 9-2, Won 0.3%
0.2%: Baltimore at Minnesota OVER 9 -105 = 9-2, Won 0.2%
0.4%: Texas -134 = 6-5, Won 0.4%
2.4%: Cleveland -114 = 3-5, Lost 2.736%
1.4%: Arizona at Colorado UNDER 11 -125 = 7-8, Lost 1.75%
0.3%: Seattle -102 = 6-5, Won 0.3%
0.4%: Detroit +160 = 2-3, Lost 0.25%
0.4%: NY Yankees -144 = 3-7, Lost 0.576%
1.4%: Philadelphia at Atlanta UNDER 8 -120 = 1-5, Won 1.4%
0.6%: Cincinnati +124 = 4-5, Lost 0.484%
0.6%: Milwaukee at Miami OVER 8.5 -110 = 2-3, Lost 0.66%
0.4%: Oakland at Boston OVER 9 -125 = 3-13, Won 0.4%
0.2%: Milwaukee +145 = 2-3, Lost 0.138%
0.9%: San Diego at Chi. Cubs OVER 7.5 -110 = 1-0, Lost 0.99%
0.6%: St. Louis -134 = 5-2, Won 0.6%
2.8%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers UNDER 7 -135 = 4-3, Pushed
0.2%: LA Dodgers -103 = 3-4, Lost 0.206%

Record of the day: 7 W - 9 L - 1 P / -4.19% <wbr>
Overall record: 206 W - 164 L - 13 P / +11.679%
 

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Thursday, May 12 2016

1.2%: Kansas City +121 / 7:05 PM
2.5%: Houston +130 / 7:10 PM
1.3%: Philadelphia at Atlanta UNDER 7 -105 / 7:10 PM
1.3%: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9 -105 / 8:10 PM
0.2%: San Diego +121 / 8:10 PM
2%: San Francisco at Arizona OVER 8 -115 / 9:40 PM
0.4%: San Francisco -109 / 9:40 PM
0.4%: St. Louis -125 / 10:05 PM
2.8%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers OVER 6 -115 / 10:10 PM
0.6%: NY Mets +225 / 10:10 PM
 

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Thursday's results

1.2%: Kansas City +121 = 3-7, Lost 0.992%
2.5%: Houston +130 = 1-11, Lost 1.923%
1.3%: Philadelphia at Atlanta UNDER 7 -105 = 7-4, Lost 1.365%
1.3%: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9 -105 = 3-0, Won 1.3%
0.2%: San Diego +121 = 3-0, Won 0.2%
2%: San Francisco at Arizona OVER 8 -115 = 4-2, Lost 2.3%
0.4%: San Francisco -109 = 4-2, Won 0.4%
0.4%: St. Louis -125 = 12-10, Won 0.4%
2.8%: NY Mets at LA Dodgers OVER 6 -115 = 0-5, Lost 3.22%
0.6%: NY Mets +225 = 0-5, Lost 0.267%

Record of the day: 4 W - 6 L / -7.767% <wbr> <wbr>
Overall record: 210 W - 170 L - 13 P / +3.912%
 

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Friday, May 13 2016
(Continued)

1.5%: Cincinnati at Philadelphia OVER 8 -115 / 7:05 PM
0.8%: Miami at Washington UNDER 8.5 -105 / 7:05 PM
0.4%: Philadelphia -115 / 7:05 PM
0.3%: NY Yankees +136 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: Washington -1 -126 / 7:05 PM
0.2%: Detroit at Baltimore OVER 8.5 -125 / 7:05 PM
2.5%: Boston -137 / 7:10 PM
0.7%: Minnesota +130 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Houston at Boston OVER 9 -120 / 7:10 PM
0.2%: Texas +100 / 8:05 PM
0.9%: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9.5 -125 / 8:10 PM
1%: Atlanta +158 / 8:15 PM
0.4%: Colorado +105 / 8:40 PM
2.7%: San Francisco at Arizona UNDER 9.5 -125 / 9:40 PM
3%: St. Louis at LA Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 / 10:10 PM
0.3%: LA Dodgers -122 / 10:10 PM
 

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Friday's results

0.6%: Pittsburgh +135 = 4-9, Lost 0.444%
1.5%: Cincinnati at Philadelphia OVER 8 -115 = 2-3, Lost 1.725%
0.8%: Miami at Washington UNDER 8.5 -105 = 3-5, Won 0.8%
0.4%: Philadelphia -115 = 3-2, Won 0.4%
0.3%: NY Yankees +136 = 1-7, Lost 0.221%
0.2%: Washington -1 -126 = 5-3, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Detroit at Baltimore OVER 8.5 -125 = 0-1, Lost 0.25%
2.5%: Boston -137 = 6-7, Lost 3.425%
0.7%: Minnesota +130 = 6-7, Lost 0.538%
0.2%: Houston at Boston OVER 9 -120 = 7-6, Won 0.2%
0.2%: Texas +100 = 0-5, Lost 0.2%
0.9%: San Diego at Milwaukee UNDER 9.5 -125 = 0-1, Won 0.9%
1%: Atlanta +158 = 1-5, Lost 0.633%
0.4%: Colorado +105 = 5-2, Won 0.4%
2.7%: San Francisco at Arizona UNDER 9.5 -125 = 3-1, Won 2.7%
3%: St. Louis at LA Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 = 4-8, Lost 3.6%
0.3%: LA Dodgers -122 = 8-4, Won 0.3%

Record of the day: 8 W - 9 L / - 5.136%
Overall record: 218 W - 179 L - 13 P / -1.224%
 

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OK, I am stopping here, and I am taking my $24.48 loss (I have been using here a bankroll of $2,000).

So far this looks like almost 6 weeks of hard work lost, but I am not considering it lost at all.
It was the only way to test things in a "real" and long enough run to have some meaningful conclusions.

My conclusions:

Overall record:
218 W - 179 L - 13 P / -1.224% => 54.91% winners

The winner % is right around the 55% mark which was given by my short backtesting I was able to do before I started this thread.

I need to improve my money management, because no matter of the odds, but 9.82% more winner plays than loser plays should generate me a positive bank increase.

April 4 - April 30
142 W - 93 L - 5 P / +21.488% => 60.43% winners

This winner % was too much above of what I expected, so I was waiting at any time for a long losing streak to occur.

May 1 - May 13
76 W - 86 L - 8 P / -22.712% => 46.91% winners

This winner % was way below than what I am expecting over the long run.

I have no explanation so far why the result in almost half of May were so radically different from the results from almost the full month of April, because I have applied exacly the same handicapping criteria all along.
Also, it seems that in this month I've been losing almost all my bigger plays, and I have no explanation for this either.

Moneyline and runline plays (overall):
131 W - 102 L - 4 P => 56.22% winners

Total plays (overall):
87 W - 77 L - 9 P => 53.05% winners

From this I can see that the total plays practically had no positive effect at all, so I will need to reduce the number of total plays.

----------------

Based on all the above I am starting a version 2, but now with using a $3,000 bankroll.
 

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