Jackie's half arsed attempts at Wold Cup Betting.

[JackDee]

Anyone like the anticlimactic title?

I 've not yet placed a single bet on the world cup, except my hefty appetizer on the german moneyline. Have I gotten religion from the GA? Nope. I just haven't cracked this one yet, and I found myself talking myself out of every single bet i ve thought I d take. I ve tried looking into rating angles, officiating angles, age angles, fatigue angles, and they are all angling away from each other, heh, heh... Not really, I have found what I consider to be some advantages, but I am still in the evaluation stage, just enjoying (some) of the games sipping a cold one, being the good boy I am a cold glass of mineral water with lime that is, with my cigarilos.

Most of the folk were losing money before yesterday, almost all I should add, and of the few that were not, only a very small minority were aware that they were doing so only out of sheer luck, and a still smaller minority were winning because they knew what they were doing. At least that's my view of it. Yesterday changed some of that, in that the average joe, his brother, sister, cheating wife and boyfriend, are now showing a good profit, what with all the favourites coming in and at some good prices too. We 'll see how this goes.

For me marginal value today lies with australia and the u.s. moneyline, but I probably won't bet any of them. If I do it will be on the live bet, and that's how I am planning to proceed in my bets for the time being, betting with prior knowledge and the insight I might gain watching the games.

 

[X-Files]

For me marginal value today lies with australia and the u.s. moneyline, but I probably won't bet any of them. If I do it will be on the live bet, and that's how I am planning to proceed in my bets for the time being, betting with prior knowledge and the insight I might gain watching the games.

Earlier this evening i read an opinion that also favors the usa,
although more strongly:

"The Americans go into the World Cup ranked No. 5 in the world by FIFA (not that handicappers can rely on those rankings as an accurate measuring stick). But nobody is prepared to give the U.S. any respect on the world stage, primarily because of the lack of American soccer culture. This is a huge mistake and a tremendous opportunity for handicappers. Team USA is +300 to beat the tough Czech Republic team on Sunday. The Czechs are even money to win, while a draw is priced at +200."

"Not that beating the Czechs will be easy. They are ranked No. 2 in the world, behind only Brazil. But they haven't fared well against non-European opposition in recent years. Furthermore, striker Milan Baros (who plays for Aston Villa in the English Premier League) is in doubt for Sunday because of a strained foot tendon, and midfielder Pavel Nedved, the 2003 European Player of the Year from Juventus, may have hurt his knee Thursday in a collision during practice. The Czechs already have a weak offense; they simply cannot afford any injuries."

 

[JackDee]

X, betfair's prices at the moment at 4.4 or so, I have to admit offer more than marginal value, they have good value, that said there's also the issue of risk and you can't expect the law or large numbers to take care of things in such a small tournie, but that's up to the individual punter. I ve not decided my strategy yet. What I would definately advice against to anyone new or not so new to soccer betting is taking the draw, which as per usual has no value, in the hopes that the underestimation (or to be correct according to the u.s. president the misunderestimation) of the u.s. spills over to the draw offering a less risky bet, it doesn't, and neither does the handicap.

 

[X-Files]

Thanks for the insights Jack. I'll have to consider a betfair account
as Pinnacle has only +301. I also see the Mansion exchange at +354
at the moment, so comparable to BF on this one. Best of luck with
the WC!

 

[winbet]

Jack,
With Greece not qualifying you certainly seem to have lost the spring in your step. You won the Euro Championship and the First Olympic games so snap out of it and start giving some opinions.

 

[JackDee]

thanks x, you too man.

win, I ve turned into a huge wimp actually but I ve yet to let anyone know, let alone admit it to myself, I am planning to give up gambling all together, never liked the troughs and cresses of the thing, i downright hated the adrenaline rush, and could never handle the losses without drinking myself blind or chasing mercylessly...man I could start convincing myself...lol.

Another half arsed predictive attempt, I am considering the heat and humidity factor in the mid day games a lot, it certainly takes its toll on the players, it's obvious, even the coaches are sweating profusely. Yesterday Van Basten kept asking for a fucking sponge to wipe himself...for gods sake a sponge for a world class icon as Van Basten, that's even more anticlimactic than my thread title, someone let the dutch know they 've invented towels, pocket air fans, etc....and now ausie superstar coach heiding says he is considering not starting up kewel (sp?) and another first squad player. It certainly gives an advantage to whatever team score first, as seen with Holland yesterday, and England the day before...but other than that...possibly a lower scoring game...

ghana look real sweet against italy at seven point something.

I ll probably be back on the live bet.


p.s. winbet, just noticed your threads "Grand To Lose Thread" title, lmao, prominently featuring with my "half arsed" one at the top, kind of a good way if you think about it to ward off goy-riders and co...what's your view on the soccer forum? bunch of pessimistic sad fucks, lmao...

 

[JackDee]

seriously guys, do you know where I can bet the card market with decent limits/juice betfair leaves much to be desired most of the time in terms of liquidity. Index betting too, I suppose I d better look at blue sq...

 

[JackDee]

fucking japs, ww ii all over again...don't say i didn't talk about flukes, although that was a foul on the goalie, it doesn't matter if the attacker is a dwarf it's still a foul if he falls, or a couple of them do on the goalkeeper, as soon as I saw egyptian ref I smelled a rat here...well in any case, how about some hormonal therapy for the japs, they desperately need to gain some height and bulk if they are ever to compete in world soccer without egyptian refs to cover their asses, pump these guys up with steroids or make up a seperate world cup for midgets...

 

[winbet]

You just hope some of these go your way. If you think the Eyptian Ref is dodgy, read what I got off another Forum.


While many of the top referees in Europe and South America are professional (or virtually professional), the World Cup will feature a maritime inspector from Benin (Coffi Codjia), a company director from Australia (Greg Shield) and an employee of the refereeing department of the Singaporean FA (Shamsul Maidin).
The issue is not that they're not professionals; the issue is what these gentlemen do in the four years between each World Cup. Referees generally officiate in their domestic leagues. That's how they gain experience and improve. But Benin and Singapore don't have professional leagues. And Australia's pro league is only a year old. That basically means that week in, week out, Messrs. Codjia, Shield and Maidin officiate matches between amateurs, played in front of a few thousand people at best.
So how can we expect them to make the jump? How can we expect them to deal with players who are faster, fitter, more skillful and often more devious than those they are used to? Particularly when Codjia, Shield and Maidin will be working in front of 50,000-strong crowds?
The answer is that we can't. These men represent a huge gamble, not because they are bad or stupid or incompetent but because they are vastly inexperienced. In fact, the only reason they're at the World Cup is that FIFA, rather than taking the 23 top officials in the world (to handle 736 of the world's best players), opted for a representative sample from all over the world. :toast:

 

[JackDee]

good post, it's definately their inexperience that comes into play, and then there's the issue they got nothing to lose and they ll go back to their home countries and no one will look for them, whilst some established ref. names will get hammered by the press if they do some dirty deed.

Then again maybe I am a sore loser even on my leans, not even bets...


I got such an itch to take the aussies for the next goal at betfair currently at 2.5, though small in liquidity, but my weather/come back theory is again manifasting itself, had the game been played at night I d have no second thoughts...but you can see they are struggling so hard with what i read is 80% humidity in kaiserslautern at the moment and the heat,you can even see them blinking when they go from the shaded areas to the sunny ones...still the japs are worthless, they ll get hammered by brazil if no foul play or the powers that be have set up otherwise, and I ll hammer that bet myself.

 

[JackDee]

Missed the mark, for the aussies to equalize but I am taking the draw at 1.28 for 5%, my usual fixed bankroll bet as I don't think anyone's got it in them to score some more, heavy chalk but I ll take it.

 

[JackDee]

way to go jack...

-5%.

 

[JackDee]

the japs completely collapsed on me...I know no one bet this on my suggestion, so no harm done for the rest, but I seem to have a problem in live betting when I am contemplating hard a certain bet, and I am on the right track yet I wait too long for better odds and end up not betting it i time, and it comes through, and on the heels of that I sometimes take the wrong decisions, but I really did expect they 'd both just settle for the draw having lost all steam, didn't expect such a stupid reaction from zico and his players going all spastic and moving up front, but then again that's the team that I said is beyond bad...

 

[kobefan08]

jack is back!!!! glad to see you back my man... will be playing your plays for sure!

 

[winbet]

Jack,
I'm not telling you how to suck eggs but live betting brings out the worst in Bettors and the fear of not betting a view leads to all sorts of bad bets. The only way is to have Pre-determined templates or spread-sheets whatever for any situation so that you know the value instantly. You will find by seeing how bad the value is sometimes it will curb the urge, and a losing bet wont seem so bad when you know you got a good price. :toast:

 

[X-Files]

seriously guys, do you know where I can bet the card market with decent limits/juice betfair leaves much to be desired most of the time in terms of liquidity. Index betting too, I suppose I d better look at blue sq...

I don't know what the "card market" or "index betting" are.
But at Mansion limits are over 100,000 USD on various sides,
e.g. South Korea -0.5 +105 {over Togo -109} $112,952.
So 4c juice on that one. Pinnacle is comparable.
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[JackDee]

kobe, good to see you too buddy, I hope I can leave up to any expectations, so far like I said my betting has been lukewarm, a good bet on the germans, in the beginning has me on top, out of the sheer money I bet there, yesterday would have meant a winning day if anyone followed my suggest leans which I didn't bet, the wimp that I am at the moment, and ended up with a kneejerk live bet which proved a loser

X, I was refering to the red and yellow cards betting market.

winbet, too good advice, exemplary, I got tons of betfair data yet to sort out I am afraid to the spreadsheet for the time being looks like a far away scenario at the moment, but it's true it's the only way to go. And live betting I ll second that too, can bring about some very embarassing situations.

That said I am on the half time draw in the brazil game for 1.8 at betfair for 5% of the bankroll. Croats are defending very well, brazilians haven't gotten their groove yet, brazilians of course can score anytime...but that's where I am on.

 

[JackDee]

price has dropped drastically I might buy out in a few minutes, depending on how this thing gows...we 'll see.

 

[JackDee]

ok, on the 43rd minute now, wouldn't be such a bad desision to buy out at 1.15, but I ll stick with it, let's see hopefully that won't be a bad choice.

 

[JackDee]

fucking hell...-10%. It 'll turn around eventually...at least none of you guys are on my live bets...