IC Leans Not his Plays
Cleveland vs. Toronto
I've always said anytime you see 70% of the public on a game, it is reason to be wary. Such is the case here with Cleveland hitting the road to face Toronto. Let's not forget that Toronto beat the Spurs to close the first half of the year Outright in a similar spread at home. Why can theynot do it here against the Cavs? But - here is the catch, with no Bosh today, this team will still have the services of Calderon and new Raptor, Marion. Remember, in the win over the Spurs, this team team did not have Bosh, but still got it done. I think the Raps can hang tough here frankly and likely 70% of the public will take a hit. Remember, the Raps lost by 18 and 20 this year on the road at Cleveland so they certainly have those losses in their minds as they play the Cavs for the third time - Ben Wallace is questionable.
Phoenix vs. L.A. Clippers
I probably should have been on Phoenix yesterday with Gentry as the new head coach. After all, the Suns will look to run and gun from here on out. Remember, Gentry is the last hold out as an Assistant from the Mike D'Antoni era of Phoenix basketball and the experiment of a more defensive Suns unit failed. Remember, Steve Kerr tried this defensive tactic and failed miserably with the Suns as this team had 23 losses in the first half this year - when they had just a few more losses all of last year and the previous four years of D'Antoni. But, here is the catch, a home and home typically favors the team that just loss SU. In this case, the Clippers were lost 140-100. But, with Gentry at the helm now, looking for his 2nd win and Randolph facing a possible suspension today, why go against the Suns who are on a mission to say "a very big thank you" for getting Jerry Porter out and bringing the run and gun style with Gentry back in as they will continue to say thank you to the front office by putting up ridiculous points on the board.
Atlanta vs. Sacramento
Hawks lost by 13 on the road to the Lakers, failing to cover the 8.5 spread that was placed on them. The Kings come off a 12 point loss but a cover at Houston as a 13 point road dog. Note, the Hawks had beaten the Pistons Outright on the road prior to that game. These two teams have not met this year and I do lean on the Hawks, a bit on the under - after all, the under has gone down 3 points since the opening. Note, the public is on the Hawks' bounce-back to a tune of roughly 66%.
New Jersey vs. Dallas
There is history in this game. Note, that Jersey drilled Dallas at home last time out so the Mavs have huge revenge from that 121-97 loss at NJ. Devin Harris returns to his old stomping grounds and Jason Kidd faces his former team. But, Jersey has lost by 26 and DD to the Magic, and not to mention with the big revenge angle for Dallas who come off a home loss to Boston - no thanks. Note, that 75% of the public is on Dallas which makes this even less of a likely play.
Lakers vs. Golden State
This game reminds me an awful lot of the GS vs. Spurs line when GS took the Spurs to OT and ended up losing by 5. This game also reminds me of the Cavs game at GS when Ellis came back and GS lost by 1 point to a buzzer beater essentially to Lebron. Note, what is interesting about the line is back in January, the line was GS +9 at home against the Lakers, and now the line is +5 for the Warriors at home. GS comes into this spread 4-0-2 ATS over the last 6 games including beating the Blazers, Jazz and Knicks all at home and covering the spread. I have a rule not to bet against the Lake Show, even though 75% of the public are riding them. Watch for GS to be very game today in this game and take the Lakers to the wire imo. If GS can do that to the Spurs, Cavs and beat the Celtics Outright at home, I think they can take the Lakers to the limit here. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Cleveland vs. Toronto
I've always said anytime you see 70% of the public on a game, it is reason to be wary. Such is the case here with Cleveland hitting the road to face Toronto. Let's not forget that Toronto beat the Spurs to close the first half of the year Outright in a similar spread at home. Why can theynot do it here against the Cavs? But - here is the catch, with no Bosh today, this team will still have the services of Calderon and new Raptor, Marion. Remember, in the win over the Spurs, this team team did not have Bosh, but still got it done. I think the Raps can hang tough here frankly and likely 70% of the public will take a hit. Remember, the Raps lost by 18 and 20 this year on the road at Cleveland so they certainly have those losses in their minds as they play the Cavs for the third time - Ben Wallace is questionable.
Phoenix vs. L.A. Clippers
I probably should have been on Phoenix yesterday with Gentry as the new head coach. After all, the Suns will look to run and gun from here on out. Remember, Gentry is the last hold out as an Assistant from the Mike D'Antoni era of Phoenix basketball and the experiment of a more defensive Suns unit failed. Remember, Steve Kerr tried this defensive tactic and failed miserably with the Suns as this team had 23 losses in the first half this year - when they had just a few more losses all of last year and the previous four years of D'Antoni. But, here is the catch, a home and home typically favors the team that just loss SU. In this case, the Clippers were lost 140-100. But, with Gentry at the helm now, looking for his 2nd win and Randolph facing a possible suspension today, why go against the Suns who are on a mission to say "a very big thank you" for getting Jerry Porter out and bringing the run and gun style with Gentry back in as they will continue to say thank you to the front office by putting up ridiculous points on the board.
Atlanta vs. Sacramento
Hawks lost by 13 on the road to the Lakers, failing to cover the 8.5 spread that was placed on them. The Kings come off a 12 point loss but a cover at Houston as a 13 point road dog. Note, the Hawks had beaten the Pistons Outright on the road prior to that game. These two teams have not met this year and I do lean on the Hawks, a bit on the under - after all, the under has gone down 3 points since the opening. Note, the public is on the Hawks' bounce-back to a tune of roughly 66%.
New Jersey vs. Dallas
There is history in this game. Note, that Jersey drilled Dallas at home last time out so the Mavs have huge revenge from that 121-97 loss at NJ. Devin Harris returns to his old stomping grounds and Jason Kidd faces his former team. But, Jersey has lost by 26 and DD to the Magic, and not to mention with the big revenge angle for Dallas who come off a home loss to Boston - no thanks. Note, that 75% of the public is on Dallas which makes this even less of a likely play.
Lakers vs. Golden State
This game reminds me an awful lot of the GS vs. Spurs line when GS took the Spurs to OT and ended up losing by 5. This game also reminds me of the Cavs game at GS when Ellis came back and GS lost by 1 point to a buzzer beater essentially to Lebron. Note, what is interesting about the line is back in January, the line was GS +9 at home against the Lakers, and now the line is +5 for the Warriors at home. GS comes into this spread 4-0-2 ATS over the last 6 games including beating the Blazers, Jazz and Knicks all at home and covering the spread. I have a rule not to bet against the Lake Show, even though 75% of the public are riding them. Watch for GS to be very game today in this game and take the Lakers to the wire imo. If GS can do that to the Spurs, Cavs and beat the Celtics Outright at home, I think they can take the Lakers to the limit here. <!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
4 Unit Play. #526. Take NC Wilmington +10.5 over Old Dominion (Wednesday @ 7pm est). Great game yesterday as Vandy gets it done for us although the first half might have given you a coronary. For today's action, I nearly settled on Florida as they come back home off of back to back losses and will likely look for a blowout against the Tide. But, the Tide were imperssive against South Carolina at home only losing by 2 so I laid off. Instead, let's look at a classic type of play we like to roll with and that is a home dog that is catching a butt load of points on revenge. Such is the case with the Seahawks today. We are 2-0 on the week and we will look to the Seahawks to get us to 3-0 and get a nice stranglehold on the winning week. The Seahawks are 6-21 SU. There is no doubt when you look at the SU record of this team they are abysmal. But, this team at home does have the capacity to play well. Remember, this is the same team that beat a top VCU team by 9, lost to James Madison by 6 at home who is a top 125 team, lost to Hofstra by 2 at home who is a top 140 team and lost to Richmond at home by 7 who is also a top 125 team. Yes, these two met earlier this year and NC Wilmington got drilled by a score of 57-87. But, what if I told you they got drilled by a similar margin against VCU on the road earlier this year by a score of 59-88 only to come back home and defeat the same team 81-72. The difference between NC Wilmington at home and on the road is that they can shoot at the friendly confines of their gym as compared to the on the road they can't shoot worth a lick as it is obvious. Look for NC Wilmington, who comes off a tight loss to Georgia State on the road by just 3, as they return home, with revenge, in a similar game as the VCU contest (who is a top 100 team as compared to ODU who is a top 125 team), who has covered their last 6 of 7, and their last 3 at home to be very game for this contest.
Good Luck,
Indian Cowboy.
Good Luck,
Indian Cowboy.
IC
4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota +9.5 over the Miami Heat (Wednesday @ 7:30pm est). Let's ride the Twolves once again as they hit the road to Miami. One of my most favorite plays is to fade a team off of a new trade. I faded the Pistons the first few days from the AI trade and we cashed just fine. In that same token, I am going to fade the Miami Heat today as O'Neal and Moon cross over for them. It takes a team to get used to new players and consequently this team will have some hiccups today and will not be in complete sync until the first few games are done and over with. Do note however, that I think this is a great trade for the Heat as this adds more scoring, a rebounding presence and O'Neal will fit into the half court game the Heat have here. The Heat are a dynamic looking team with young talent and Moon will fit right in with the solid young guards that Miami has. But, this will take time to gel and I like the Timberwolves today to stay inside single digits. Look, this team should have won at Washington given their slow start, massive come back, at one point leading by 5 late in this game only to lose the game and cover. Miami beat this team by 3 points on the road earlier this year so Minny has revenge from that game, tack on the fact they are beginning to play better with no Al Jefferson for the year and Mchale is giving some of his young players such as Cardinal and McCants more time to build the depth of this team, I like the Twolves to hang tough in a low scoring contest. I believe it will take some time for the Heat to gel and the Twolves are beginning to figure out how to play with out Jefferson as the top five plus, the some of the reserves are making up the ground. The Twolves are 14-3 ATS when facing a team on the road with a winning record.
gl,
Indian Cowboy.
4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota +9.5 over the Miami Heat (Wednesday @ 7:30pm est). Let's ride the Twolves once again as they hit the road to Miami. One of my most favorite plays is to fade a team off of a new trade. I faded the Pistons the first few days from the AI trade and we cashed just fine. In that same token, I am going to fade the Miami Heat today as O'Neal and Moon cross over for them. It takes a team to get used to new players and consequently this team will have some hiccups today and will not be in complete sync until the first few games are done and over with. Do note however, that I think this is a great trade for the Heat as this adds more scoring, a rebounding presence and O'Neal will fit into the half court game the Heat have here. The Heat are a dynamic looking team with young talent and Moon will fit right in with the solid young guards that Miami has. But, this will take time to gel and I like the Timberwolves today to stay inside single digits. Look, this team should have won at Washington given their slow start, massive come back, at one point leading by 5 late in this game only to lose the game and cover. Miami beat this team by 3 points on the road earlier this year so Minny has revenge from that game, tack on the fact they are beginning to play better with no Al Jefferson for the year and Mchale is giving some of his young players such as Cardinal and McCants more time to build the depth of this team, I like the Twolves to hang tough in a low scoring contest. I believe it will take some time for the Heat to gel and the Twolves are beginning to figure out how to play with out Jefferson as the top five plus, the some of the reserves are making up the ground. The Twolves are 14-3 ATS when facing a team on the road with a winning record.
gl,
Indian Cowboy.
Been meaning to respond but been really busy......I advise ignoring IC's leans. While following him for 2 years for free at his forum home he was about break even or slightly better on plays that did not qualify as his POD. Plus they were VERY streaky. He would go on big droughts as well as some nice runs. Most people do not practice good money management so I would not follow. Whe he went tout he would have just 1 POD for the entire board and then a play or 3 small plays. There is a reason he gave that up and went to 1 POD per sport. I wasn't sure how he would do with 1 per sport but is obviously doing very well. Follow his POD plays and you will win more than lose over the long haul and ignore everything else is my advise.
hno:
Play: 4 Unit Play. #745. Take Appalachian State -4 over NC-Greensboro (Thursday @ 7pm est). (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: 4 Unit Play. #745. Take Appalachian State -4 over NC-Greensboro (Thursday @ 7pm est). We are 2-1 on the week in college ball as we look to the Southern Conference to help us go 3-1 for the week and get in a sound position to win for our 6th week out of the last 7 in college hoops. The last time these two teams met, it was an exciting game in which NC-Greensboro actually ended up winning on the road as 13.5 Underdogs. It was a huge upset as App. State was taken to the limit as the game went into overtime as the Mountaineers suffered a shocking 83-85 loss. I'm not the one to play favorites many a times, and I'm not the one to play a road favorite at that. But, this game calls for it. I will gladly take a team that was once favored by -13.5, who ended up losing outright on their home floor, who now has revenge and is favored by just 4 points. I believe home court is a bit irrelevant here as App. State will be fired up for this game and will come out of the gates strong and simply believe they are 4 points better than NC-Greensboro given the talent that they have. NC-Greensboro shot 51.7% the last time these two teams met, and I don't see that occurring again. Note that NC-G is a team outside the top 300 and App St. has had success against such teams. For example, when App. State faced Elon they defeated them 77-63 on the road, they defeated Georgia Southern 95-82 on the road who is around a top 300 team as well and defeated Wofford and Furman by 5 who are teams outside the top 300 and top 250 respectively. In short, I think App. State has revenge in their minds, they will have a decent sized crowd there to support them as this is a rivalry game in many ways, this team has balanced scoring as 9 players scored in the last game between these two teams and four were in double figures and I will take the 7 conference win team as compared to the 3 conference win team as App. State has showed more consistency overall this year. The NC-Greensboro Spartans are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games while the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two squads.
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Boston Celtics vs Utah Jazz
Play: 4 Unit Play. Take Over 200.5 between the Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz (Thursday @ 10:30pm est). (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: 4 Unit Play. Take Over 200.5 between the Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz (Thursday @ 10:30pm est). Glad we were able to cash with the Twolves yesterday. Let's cash once again with the over tonight in the limited NBA Card on the NBA docket. You know, I've seen 200 as a total in various books, but I will place the total here at 200.5 so hopefully folks can get a better line. It actually seems like the total is going down a bit and it could be for various reasons. For starters, Boozer is still out till' late February but Okur is now listed as probable. I believe the Jazz will be very game tonight and have a great shot at winning this game outright. This is a dangerous game for the Celtics b/c if they thought they had a tough time with the Lakers and Spurs at home, they will certainly have their hands full against the Utah Jazz who took care of the Lakers - banged up in Utah. Let it be known that the Utah Jazz can beat anyone, absolutely anyone in Utah. Now, this Utah team on the road is a different story as they have lost to the Thunder, Bucks and Warriors. But, at home in Utah, they can defeat anyone. But, why go against the Celtics on Thursday Night Basketball? This team somehow managed to beat New Orleans and Dallas as small chalk on the road - but note, that New Orleans was not at full strength and Dallas did not have Jason Terry in that game. Look for Utah to do very well in this contest - even win. But, more importantly, I will take them to be an active dog and cash the over as I expect Utah to take Boston to the limit here. Utah has revenge - the last time these two teams hooked up the C's won by 9 as the total went to 191. I expect Utah to put up more than a 100 today and at some point, the Celtics to catch up and make a run consequently pushing this total over the posted total. The over is 5-1 between these two teams in Utah and the Over is 4-0 for the Jazz when they face teams with a winning % of greater than 60% at home - meaning once again, active dogs and over the posted total.
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: 4 Unit Play. #745. Take Appalachian State -4 over NC-Greensboro (Thursday @ 7pm est). We are 2-1 on the week in college ball as we look to the Southern Conference to help us go 3-1 for the week and get in a sound position to win for our 6th week out of the last 7 in college hoops. The last time these two teams met, it was an exciting game in which NC-Greensboro actually ended up winning on the road as 13.5 Underdogs. It was a huge upset as App. State was taken to the limit as the game went into overtime as the Mountaineers suffered a shocking 83-85 loss. I'm not the one to play favorites many a times, and I'm not the one to play a road favorite at that. But, this game calls for it. I will gladly take a team that was once favored by -13.5, who ended up losing outright on their home floor, who now has revenge and is favored by just 4 points. I believe home court is a bit irrelevant here as App. State will be fired up for this game and will come out of the gates strong and simply believe they are 4 points better than NC-Greensboro given the talent that they have. NC-Greensboro shot 51.7% the last time these two teams met, and I don't see that occurring again. Note that NC-G is a team outside the top 300 and App St. has had success against such teams. For example, when App. State faced Elon they defeated them 77-63 on the road, they defeated Georgia Southern 95-82 on the road who is around a top 300 team as well and defeated Wofford and Furman by 5 who are teams outside the top 300 and top 250 respectively. In short, I think App. State has revenge in their minds, they will have a decent sized crowd there to support them as this is a rivalry game in many ways, this team has balanced scoring as 9 players scored in the last game between these two teams and four were in double figures and I will take the 7 conference win team as compared to the 3 conference win team as App. State has showed more consistency overall this year. The NC-Greensboro Spartans are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games while the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two squads.
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Boston Celtics vs Utah Jazz
Play: 4 Unit Play. Take Over 200.5 between the Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz (Thursday @ 10:30pm est). (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: 4 Unit Play. Take Over 200.5 between the Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz (Thursday @ 10:30pm est). Glad we were able to cash with the Twolves yesterday. Let's cash once again with the over tonight in the limited NBA Card on the NBA docket. You know, I've seen 200 as a total in various books, but I will place the total here at 200.5 so hopefully folks can get a better line. It actually seems like the total is going down a bit and it could be for various reasons. For starters, Boozer is still out till' late February but Okur is now listed as probable. I believe the Jazz will be very game tonight and have a great shot at winning this game outright. This is a dangerous game for the Celtics b/c if they thought they had a tough time with the Lakers and Spurs at home, they will certainly have their hands full against the Utah Jazz who took care of the Lakers - banged up in Utah. Let it be known that the Utah Jazz can beat anyone, absolutely anyone in Utah. Now, this Utah team on the road is a different story as they have lost to the Thunder, Bucks and Warriors. But, at home in Utah, they can defeat anyone. But, why go against the Celtics on Thursday Night Basketball? This team somehow managed to beat New Orleans and Dallas as small chalk on the road - but note, that New Orleans was not at full strength and Dallas did not have Jason Terry in that game. Look for Utah to do very well in this contest - even win. But, more importantly, I will take them to be an active dog and cash the over as I expect Utah to take Boston to the limit here. Utah has revenge - the last time these two teams hooked up the C's won by 9 as the total went to 191. I expect Utah to put up more than a 100 today and at some point, the Celtics to catch up and make a run consequently pushing this total over the posted total. The over is 5-1 between these two teams in Utah and the Over is 4-0 for the Jazz when they face teams with a winning % of greater than 60% at home - meaning once again, active dogs and over the posted total.
