Here you go:
Play: 4 Unit Play. #592. Take St. Bonaventure +2.5 over UMass (Saturday @ 7pm est).
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: 4 Unit Play. #592. Take St. Bonaventure +2.5 over UMass (Saturday @ 7pm est). I can't wait for this game! As you know, there are few conferences that are my favorite. These are the conferences I research and focus on as if I did the research that way I like to conduct it, on all the games in college ball, I would not be able to get any sleep. But, my favorite conferences to cap and follow are the Big10, Metro Atlantic, Ivy and of course, the Atlantic 10. No, they are not the sexiest conferences, but I leave those "big games" to the touts who claim their Games of the Century. These are "unsexy" under the radar games which I enjoy capping, where the lines are "looser" and have a considerably more value imo. Having said that, let's roll with St. Bonny as a home dog against Umass today. First, I respect both of these programs as they have made some strides. And, note that Umass is ranked higher in the power rankings by about 40 spots (I always give clients both sides of the coin). But, here is the deal. This is a tough spot for Umass in several ways. For starters, this is an evening game in St. Bonny at 7pm and they should have a solid crowd for this contest. St. Bonny has not beat Umass since 2004 b/c this team has always had the demeanor and the reputaion of the big "UMASS" name which carried a lot of weight before Calipari jetted for the NBA and then landed in Memphis. But, St. Bonny has a great shot at upsetting Umass today and in particular, getting that big win for the program would mean a lot. After Umass, after the exiting of Travis Ford for bigger and better things, UMass is in a rebuilding stage as a team that focuses on defense with their new head ball coach. St. Bonny played admirably on the road at Rhode Island losing by 7 points and considering Rhode Island is a top 70 team, this is impressive. Tack on the fact that this team put up 80 points that game, that is great. This team beat top 100 La Salle at home prior to that by 5 points (UMASS note is ranked top 125 this year). This year also defeated top 130 Richmond on the road by a few points, and plays a UMass team that lost to the likes of top 150 Charlotte in OT on the road, top 140 St. Louis by a few points, and comes off a huge 20+ win over Fordham so in a small way, they are in for a let down after having one of their big wins of the year. Thus, we are taking a home dog, a team that is playing in the evening with the crowd, a team that has beat better teams at home than Umass, fading a Umass team coming off one of the biggest margins of victory in the year, St. Bonny having revenge from last year and frankly years of getting beat by this team, and a St. Bonny team coming off a loss after playing a very good team tough on the road. The Minutemen are 3-14 ATS when playing as a small favorite of 0-6.5 points and our Bonnies are 4-0 ATS when an underdog of late. Let's roll with the Bonnies for the Outright win and upset today.
Play: 4 Unit Play. #592. Take St. Bonaventure +2.5 over UMass (Saturday @ 7pm est).
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: 4 Unit Play. #592. Take St. Bonaventure +2.5 over UMass (Saturday @ 7pm est). I can't wait for this game! As you know, there are few conferences that are my favorite. These are the conferences I research and focus on as if I did the research that way I like to conduct it, on all the games in college ball, I would not be able to get any sleep. But, my favorite conferences to cap and follow are the Big10, Metro Atlantic, Ivy and of course, the Atlantic 10. No, they are not the sexiest conferences, but I leave those "big games" to the touts who claim their Games of the Century. These are "unsexy" under the radar games which I enjoy capping, where the lines are "looser" and have a considerably more value imo. Having said that, let's roll with St. Bonny as a home dog against Umass today. First, I respect both of these programs as they have made some strides. And, note that Umass is ranked higher in the power rankings by about 40 spots (I always give clients both sides of the coin). But, here is the deal. This is a tough spot for Umass in several ways. For starters, this is an evening game in St. Bonny at 7pm and they should have a solid crowd for this contest. St. Bonny has not beat Umass since 2004 b/c this team has always had the demeanor and the reputaion of the big "UMASS" name which carried a lot of weight before Calipari jetted for the NBA and then landed in Memphis. But, St. Bonny has a great shot at upsetting Umass today and in particular, getting that big win for the program would mean a lot. After Umass, after the exiting of Travis Ford for bigger and better things, UMass is in a rebuilding stage as a team that focuses on defense with their new head ball coach. St. Bonny played admirably on the road at Rhode Island losing by 7 points and considering Rhode Island is a top 70 team, this is impressive. Tack on the fact that this team put up 80 points that game, that is great. This team beat top 100 La Salle at home prior to that by 5 points (UMASS note is ranked top 125 this year). This year also defeated top 130 Richmond on the road by a few points, and plays a UMass team that lost to the likes of top 150 Charlotte in OT on the road, top 140 St. Louis by a few points, and comes off a huge 20+ win over Fordham so in a small way, they are in for a let down after having one of their big wins of the year. Thus, we are taking a home dog, a team that is playing in the evening with the crowd, a team that has beat better teams at home than Umass, fading a Umass team coming off one of the biggest margins of victory in the year, St. Bonny having revenge from last year and frankly years of getting beat by this team, and a St. Bonny team coming off a loss after playing a very good team tough on the road. The Minutemen are 3-14 ATS when playing as a small favorite of 0-6.5 points and our Bonnies are 4-0 ATS when an underdog of late. Let's roll with the Bonnies for the Outright win and upset today.
Trying to give a hand to those who follow Ind Cow. I have been riding his plays for at least a month now and they have been great - no doubt about it at all!
BUT - I took a close look at the site where he is hosted - docsports.com
Doc is the founder of the site. Supposedly one of his biggest plays every year is his Big Ten Game of the Year. Says it won 19 straight at one point. He has it today on Northwestern - someone recently posted it.
So, I will be as degenerate as you and now play IC's leans for smaller units in addition to his regular plays but today I will have to try out that Doc Big Ten Game of the Year.
Any comments on this?
BUT - I took a close look at the site where he is hosted - docsports.com
Doc is the founder of the site. Supposedly one of his biggest plays every year is his Big Ten Game of the Year. Says it won 19 straight at one point. He has it today on Northwestern - someone recently posted it.
So, I will be as degenerate as you and now play IC's leans for smaller units in addition to his regular plays but today I will have to try out that Doc Big Ten Game of the Year.
Any comments on this?
IC Info
<><>Big 10:
Michigan vs. Northwestern
NW comes off a shocking loss to Illinois after leading nearly from start to finish to their dissappointment. They ended up losing the game by 1 after they had come back home losing to Iowa by 5 on the road. Thus, they are now 4-7 after back to back conference losses and faces a Michigan team who they have revenge against after losing by 9 on the road earlier this year. Michigan however too, comes off back to back losses including a very competitive game they played against #1 UConn and losing by double-digits at home to Michigan State. Sure, NW is nice with revenge, but in such a low scoring game (total placed at 124), the 4.5 could become significant here. Nevertheless, small lean on Michigan.
Atlantic 10:
Temple vs. Duquesne
For starters, the public is split on this game. In fact, they slightly favor Temple. When you look at the power rankings, note that Temple is top 50 and the Dukes are top 100. Usually my spreadsheets indiciate home court gives you about a 50 spot boost in the power ranking with the crowd behind you and some home cooking calls via the officials. So, with that in mind, this game is a tossup. These two teams have not met this year. Temple actually beat this team by 5 last year (covering the -4.5 spread) and now the Dukes look to get revenge at home. Temple comes off some big wins including Rhode Island at home and St. Josephs another top 100 team who they bea tby 2 points on the road. Hence, that is why the spread is 2 here. This is b/c Duquesne and St. J's have very similar rankings. But, the catch is, the Dukes come off a tough loss at Richmond, a game they were leading early and then got caught from behind. Remember, if the Dukes can beat conference leader Xavier by 4 points at home who is a top 25 team, why can they not beat Temple coming off a loss (same situation as to when they beat Xavier coming off a loss to St. Louis in OT). Lean on the Dukes for an outright here or who knows, maybe even lose by 1.
Metro Atlantic:
Rider vs. Manhattan
Rider has quickly scaled the heights of the power rankings. This team is a top 175 team now. Remember, this is a 14-10 team, that comes off a shocking loss to St. Peters on the road by 1 point, after having beaten Marist, conference contender Siena who is a top 75 team at home, and Canisius at home. They face a Manhattan team coming off the SU loss, who they beat by 3 points earlier this year at home in a 76-73 fashion. So, Manhattan undoubtedly has revenge coming into this game. Manhattan is a to 200 team coming off one of their worst conference losses of the year by losing by 24 to Siena on the road. Manhattan had defeated Marist, Loyola Maryland on the road and Iona at home prior to that. But, looks like this team had a bit of a let down after their 12 point win over Iona (holding Iona to just 39 points worth of offense). Rider swept this team winning by 3 and 7 last year. I would not be surprised to see Manhattan pull the upset here at home as both teams come off a loss, but Manhattan come home after one of their worst losses of the season in conference play and they do have revenge against a Rider team who has beaten them several times in the past few years in a row.
Ivy League: No games.
Colonial Athletic:
Towson vs. Drexel
For starters, 66% of the public favor Drexel here as they return home. Towson is a top 250 team that is catching 11 points here in conference play vs. Drexel. Towson comes off a big win against Ga State getting revenge on State from an earlier seaosn loss by about 20 to the hands of State on the road. This team lost by 7 to Drexel at home earlier this year and now faces off against them on the road. Just note that Drexel comes off a 4 point win at Northeastern which was a huge win for this team, after losing at home to ODU and Deleware on the road. This reminds me a bit of the LSU vs. Ole Miss game yesterday as I think as bad as Drexel is, they matched up relatively well earlier this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they squeak in for the cover here against Drexel who comes off a huge road win and might have a bit of a let down in the early going against Towson who will play with a chip on their shoulder.
<><>Big 10:
Michigan vs. Northwestern
NW comes off a shocking loss to Illinois after leading nearly from start to finish to their dissappointment. They ended up losing the game by 1 after they had come back home losing to Iowa by 5 on the road. Thus, they are now 4-7 after back to back conference losses and faces a Michigan team who they have revenge against after losing by 9 on the road earlier this year. Michigan however too, comes off back to back losses including a very competitive game they played against #1 UConn and losing by double-digits at home to Michigan State. Sure, NW is nice with revenge, but in such a low scoring game (total placed at 124), the 4.5 could become significant here. Nevertheless, small lean on Michigan.
Atlantic 10:
Temple vs. Duquesne
For starters, the public is split on this game. In fact, they slightly favor Temple. When you look at the power rankings, note that Temple is top 50 and the Dukes are top 100. Usually my spreadsheets indiciate home court gives you about a 50 spot boost in the power ranking with the crowd behind you and some home cooking calls via the officials. So, with that in mind, this game is a tossup. These two teams have not met this year. Temple actually beat this team by 5 last year (covering the -4.5 spread) and now the Dukes look to get revenge at home. Temple comes off some big wins including Rhode Island at home and St. Josephs another top 100 team who they bea tby 2 points on the road. Hence, that is why the spread is 2 here. This is b/c Duquesne and St. J's have very similar rankings. But, the catch is, the Dukes come off a tough loss at Richmond, a game they were leading early and then got caught from behind. Remember, if the Dukes can beat conference leader Xavier by 4 points at home who is a top 25 team, why can they not beat Temple coming off a loss (same situation as to when they beat Xavier coming off a loss to St. Louis in OT). Lean on the Dukes for an outright here or who knows, maybe even lose by 1.
Metro Atlantic:
Rider vs. Manhattan
Rider has quickly scaled the heights of the power rankings. This team is a top 175 team now. Remember, this is a 14-10 team, that comes off a shocking loss to St. Peters on the road by 1 point, after having beaten Marist, conference contender Siena who is a top 75 team at home, and Canisius at home. They face a Manhattan team coming off the SU loss, who they beat by 3 points earlier this year at home in a 76-73 fashion. So, Manhattan undoubtedly has revenge coming into this game. Manhattan is a to 200 team coming off one of their worst conference losses of the year by losing by 24 to Siena on the road. Manhattan had defeated Marist, Loyola Maryland on the road and Iona at home prior to that. But, looks like this team had a bit of a let down after their 12 point win over Iona (holding Iona to just 39 points worth of offense). Rider swept this team winning by 3 and 7 last year. I would not be surprised to see Manhattan pull the upset here at home as both teams come off a loss, but Manhattan come home after one of their worst losses of the season in conference play and they do have revenge against a Rider team who has beaten them several times in the past few years in a row.
Ivy League: No games.
Colonial Athletic:
Towson vs. Drexel
For starters, 66% of the public favor Drexel here as they return home. Towson is a top 250 team that is catching 11 points here in conference play vs. Drexel. Towson comes off a big win against Ga State getting revenge on State from an earlier seaosn loss by about 20 to the hands of State on the road. This team lost by 7 to Drexel at home earlier this year and now faces off against them on the road. Just note that Drexel comes off a 4 point win at Northeastern which was a huge win for this team, after losing at home to ODU and Deleware on the road. This reminds me a bit of the LSU vs. Ole Miss game yesterday as I think as bad as Drexel is, they matched up relatively well earlier this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they squeak in for the cover here against Drexel who comes off a huge road win and might have a bit of a let down in the early going against Towson who will play with a chip on their shoulder.
Play: 2 Unit Play. #804. Take Indiana Hoosiers +10 over Illinois (Sunday @ 1pm est). (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY AT MAUI EXPERTS: Don't forget the other Advisors at Maui Expert's who have been on fire like Rockdeman who is 9-3-1 the last 5 days and LVTR who is back to full speed after their family tragedy and hitting back hard on the comeback trail going 20-5 the last 6 days. Now let's get back to business and today's winner. 2 Unit Play. #804. Take Indiana Hoosiers +10 over Illinois (Sunday @ 1pm est). Congrats on St. Bonny yesterday as they defeated Umass Outright with a big second half outscore the minutemen by 15. We have now secured winning week 5 of 6 in college hoops as we keep the cash coals rolling. In fact, that is in addition to the 8 straight weeks we have won in the NBA as we look for the 9th straight winning week in the NBA on Tuesday when the regular slate of games in the Association resumes. Once again, we hit 64% in January hoops and we are at that same mark in February. For today's game, let's roll with my favorite conference - the Big10. The other conferences that I enjoy focusing on including the Atlantic 10, the Metro Atlantic and the Ivy League. As per this game, I've written about Tom Crean and how much I enjoy him as a coach. Check the archives of the site and you will see an article that I wrote on February 10th entitled, "Cowboy Cashes with Crean". That article was written prior to the Hoosiers going into Minnesota and losing by just 8 points to a Gopher team that was coming off one of the worst losses of the season. I have faded Indiana at the right times (on the road for example at Illinois) and I have backed them at the right time (at home when they have played the likes of Iowa and won outright). This team does have talent despite having plenty of non-scholarship players at one point. Look, Crean can flat out coach. He is one of the hardest working and best coaches in America. In essence, he is white Tubby Smith in many ways if you look at his track record. Crean has slowly turned this rag tag players into a competitive bunch - at home - in the Big10. Heck, remember, this team nearly beat Michigan Outright at home after having a big lead and lost to them in OT (still covered the spread). I was on Indiana then too. This team took Minnesota down to the wire at home while 73% of the public was on the Gophers who were road chalk at Bloomington and covered the spread. This team saddled up and beat Iowa at home for their first conference win and to their credit, although they did not cover against Ohio State, they had a scoring drought of several minutes and at one point were only down 2 points at the 10 minute mark so they could have easily covered that game. Look, if someone came up to me and said they would give me 10 points in a total of 122, I would jump all over it. After all, this is a rivalry game. Remember, I rode Illinois as my 5* Big 10 GOM (which is 9-0 lifetime btw with 5* at 30-8 lifetime). Illinois routed this team by a score of 76-45 - but that was back in January 10th. And, the Hoosiers have improved drastically since that game. I like Indiana coming off a loss as they return home. Let me ask you something (and this is coming from a guy that has rode Illinois for more ATS covers than any team this year), what has Illinois done on the road this year of late? This team did beat NW by 1 point (but failed to cover - than God, I was on NW that game earlier this week for my pod), this team lost to Wisconsin by 13 on the road and this team lost to Minnesota by 23 on the road being held to 36 points. Heck, Indiana was far more competitive against Minnesota at home and on the road. Normally, I would place this game with higher value, but we have secured the winning week in cbb already. I think this is great value personally and would not be surprised to see a swing game back and forth as Indiana likely loses by single-digits and according to my numbers the 10 digit dog has a 32% chance of winning outright. Let's all be Hoosier fans today as the Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss and the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road contests
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY AT MAUI EXPERTS: Don't forget the other Advisors at Maui Expert's who have been on fire like Rockdeman who is 9-3-1 the last 5 days and LVTR who is back to full speed after their family tragedy and hitting back hard on the comeback trail going 20-5 the last 6 days. Now let's get back to business and today's winner. 2 Unit Play. #804. Take Indiana Hoosiers +10 over Illinois (Sunday @ 1pm est). Congrats on St. Bonny yesterday as they defeated Umass Outright with a big second half outscore the minutemen by 15. We have now secured winning week 5 of 6 in college hoops as we keep the cash coals rolling. In fact, that is in addition to the 8 straight weeks we have won in the NBA as we look for the 9th straight winning week in the NBA on Tuesday when the regular slate of games in the Association resumes. Once again, we hit 64% in January hoops and we are at that same mark in February. For today's game, let's roll with my favorite conference - the Big10. The other conferences that I enjoy focusing on including the Atlantic 10, the Metro Atlantic and the Ivy League. As per this game, I've written about Tom Crean and how much I enjoy him as a coach. Check the archives of the site and you will see an article that I wrote on February 10th entitled, "Cowboy Cashes with Crean". That article was written prior to the Hoosiers going into Minnesota and losing by just 8 points to a Gopher team that was coming off one of the worst losses of the season. I have faded Indiana at the right times (on the road for example at Illinois) and I have backed them at the right time (at home when they have played the likes of Iowa and won outright). This team does have talent despite having plenty of non-scholarship players at one point. Look, Crean can flat out coach. He is one of the hardest working and best coaches in America. In essence, he is white Tubby Smith in many ways if you look at his track record. Crean has slowly turned this rag tag players into a competitive bunch - at home - in the Big10. Heck, remember, this team nearly beat Michigan Outright at home after having a big lead and lost to them in OT (still covered the spread). I was on Indiana then too. This team took Minnesota down to the wire at home while 73% of the public was on the Gophers who were road chalk at Bloomington and covered the spread. This team saddled up and beat Iowa at home for their first conference win and to their credit, although they did not cover against Ohio State, they had a scoring drought of several minutes and at one point were only down 2 points at the 10 minute mark so they could have easily covered that game. Look, if someone came up to me and said they would give me 10 points in a total of 122, I would jump all over it. After all, this is a rivalry game. Remember, I rode Illinois as my 5* Big 10 GOM (which is 9-0 lifetime btw with 5* at 30-8 lifetime). Illinois routed this team by a score of 76-45 - but that was back in January 10th. And, the Hoosiers have improved drastically since that game. I like Indiana coming off a loss as they return home. Let me ask you something (and this is coming from a guy that has rode Illinois for more ATS covers than any team this year), what has Illinois done on the road this year of late? This team did beat NW by 1 point (but failed to cover - than God, I was on NW that game earlier this week for my pod), this team lost to Wisconsin by 13 on the road and this team lost to Minnesota by 23 on the road being held to 36 points. Heck, Indiana was far more competitive against Minnesota at home and on the road. Normally, I would place this game with higher value, but we have secured the winning week in cbb already. I think this is great value personally and would not be surprised to see a swing game back and forth as Indiana likely loses by single-digits and according to my numbers the 10 digit dog has a 32% chance of winning outright. Let's all be Hoosier fans today as the Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss and the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road contests
It's unconfirmed but it looks like the play is going to be the under in that game based on his analysis.
Pitt vs. Uconn
This is a big game. These two teams have not met this year as they meet for the first time, and note, they will meet again as the regular season comes to a close on March 7th for both of these squads. Pitt comes in ranked #4 visiting the top ranked Huskies catching 3 points as 62% favor the home Huskies here. Pitt on the road has been a bit up and down as they are 23-2, but their 2 road losses, were in conference play and both were on the road. This tem lost to Villanova 57-67 on the road and lost to Louisville 63-69 on the road as well. Uconn has had just 1 loss and that was to Georgetown at home in midseason and besides that is a spotless 24-1 in conference play. To their credit, they did beat Louisville by 17 on the road, WVU on the road and beat this team by 7 last year at home in a very low scoring contest. I'm not a big total guy, but I would not be surprised to see this game dip underneath the total like it did last year. I would not be a bit surprised to see Pitt win this game SU on the road as they match up well with Uconn. But rather than a side, I think a total is more appealing in this game.
Pitt vs. Uconn
This is a big game. These two teams have not met this year as they meet for the first time, and note, they will meet again as the regular season comes to a close on March 7th for both of these squads. Pitt comes in ranked #4 visiting the top ranked Huskies catching 3 points as 62% favor the home Huskies here. Pitt on the road has been a bit up and down as they are 23-2, but their 2 road losses, were in conference play and both were on the road. This tem lost to Villanova 57-67 on the road and lost to Louisville 63-69 on the road as well. Uconn has had just 1 loss and that was to Georgetown at home in midseason and besides that is a spotless 24-1 in conference play. To their credit, they did beat Louisville by 17 on the road, WVU on the road and beat this team by 7 last year at home in a very low scoring contest. I'm not a big total guy, but I would not be surprised to see this game dip underneath the total like it did last year. I would not be a bit surprised to see Pitt win this game SU on the road as they match up well with Uconn. But rather than a side, I think a total is more appealing in this game.
4 Unit Play. #503. Take Louisiana Tech +9 over New Mexico State (Monday @ 9pm est). Congrats on another winning week in college hoops (albeit small) and a winning week overall in hoops. That makes 5 of 6 winning weeks in college and 8 straight winning weeks in the NBA. But, we have more to accomplish and if there is one thing that I've learned in this business as it is not nearing a decade of capping, you never rest on your laurels - and you treat each day as if you neither lost or won - treat it neutral. It all comes down to research, patience and hard work. If you can do that 365 days a year being level headed - you will be just fine. This is why I love the site that I am with as it gives me a chance in a non-overly toutish way to publish, research, and the liberty to cap via flat betting with consistency. This is much better than being forced to sell for the day and being overly toutish - I hate that. As per the game today, I like La Tech catching the points. You know, I gave a strong look at the Pitt vs. Uconn game today and actually leaned on the under and nearly wrote the analysis last night. But, I held back simply b/c I think Pitt can very well win that game SU. I still think it can go under, the but the total has dropped two points, and if I think the dog is going to do well, then it would go with my active dog/over theory which I have published relentlessly about the last four years. So, it would go against my view to take the total if Pitt is competitive in that game. Let's ride La Tech today on the road. La Tech has quietly pulled themselves into a top 200 power ranked team. They have not faced New Mexico State this year, but have plenty of revenge from being swept last year. Note, that La Tech does have talent enough to beat Fresno State by 13 at home (same team that took State to OT just recently at State), lost to conference stud Utah State by just 8 on the road, and even beat a top 120 Nevada team on the road outright by 3 by dropping 78 points on the highway on them. New Mexico State is a talented team and they are 7-5 in conference play and I'm not taking that away from them. But, they are not the type of team that blows other teams out in conference play. When the played Fresno State recently, they won in OT (who is a similarly ranked team to La Tech), this team too beat Nevada on the road by 2 points (same as La Tech) and beat San Jose State by 8 and Hawaii by 10 at home. I can see La Tech hanging tough most of this game on the road today as if they can hang within 8 to Utah State who is a top 50 team, why can they not hang tough against New Mexico State who doesn't necessarily blow teams out at home. I have La Tech losing by 6 here and will take the 9 points. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS as an Underdog of this margin, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and New Mexico State is 0-4 ATS as a favorite of this margin at home. Let's ride the Bulldogs who are also 16-5 ATS as a road underdog in their last 21 contests.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.
