I Hope The Housing Market Crashes

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I will never be happy if my house goes down 30%...but it won't happen. I am sure it will top out at some point, but it happens.

Sell and rent? :icon_conf

I would rather lose 30% of the value on something I own than to donate rent to someone every month. How would that make any sense for anyone?

OMG, some of early posts in this thread are worth the price of admission. Hysterical.
 

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NEXT DOOR neighbor sold his house in two weeks about 4 months ago;he wants to relocate upstate to be nearer grandchildren; sold for about 30% more than he bought it 6 years ago , 2003);nurse I work with sold her house in 2 days; she said she priced it lower than she wanted, but more
than she paid 5 years ago; moving to Atlanta.

This is central South Carolina; where real estate values did not really explode; unemployment is 12.8% (fourth highest in U.S.). It is true the 1.2 million lakefront spec homes have sat for 2 years and now are asking 900K. On the coast values are down 30-40% on beachfront million dollar homes; and are not moving. It depends on the market; but it is clealy possible that my house will go down 30%, but I live here; pay about 35% more on 15 year mortgage than rent would be; so I'll hang in there (hopefully); and at least own a home in 8.5 years; they can still screw you with taxes..

lol

gl :toast:
 

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If only every single person that bought a home from 2005-2007 saw this thread. In Loudon County VA, the "fastest growing county in america", every single person that bought a home from 2004-2008 (they're were a ton) is upside down +100k on their mortgage.
 

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where i live at many of the homes in my neighborhood were purchased for about 500k+
now they are worth about 300k if not less
 

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We may have not seen the worst of it yet. Wait until the ALT-A and Option ARM mortgages reset. The average home value on those mortgages are significantly higher than the subprime (which was for lower-income borrowers), and there's just as much if not more resets.

IMFresets.jpg


The market is doing just what this predicted it would do - collapse, rebound, and the next step is collapse again. I won't think of buying until 2012 and that may be too early.
 

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Treehouse, thought you would want to read this article.

********************************************

Fla. highrise has 32 stories, but just 1 tenant


capt.de782f1559ca46b68a48483b83d93355.lonely_highrise_flwl101.jpg




In this photo taken Thursday, July 30, 2009, the 32-story building, in which the only tenants are the Vangelakos family, is seen in Ft. Myers, Fla. Most of the other tenants in the 200-unit condo didn't close on their contracts, and the few that did have transferred to an adjacent building owned by the same company because more people live there.

<cite class="vcard">By CHRISTINE ARMARIO, Associated Press Writer Christine Armario, Associated Press Writer </cite> – <abbr title="2009-08-01T12:37:54-0700" class="timedate">Sat Aug 1, 3:37 pm ET

</abbr>FORT MYERS, Fla. – The Vangelakos' southwest Florida condominium has marble floors, a large pool overlooking a river and modern furnishings that speak of affluence and luxury. What they don't have in the 32-story building is a single neighbor.
The New Jersey family of five purchased their unit four years ago, when Fort Myers was in the midst of a housing boom and any hints of an impending financial crisis were buried in lofty dreams of expansion and development. They made a $10,000 down payment and eagerly watched as builders transformed an empty lot into an opulent high rise, one that now symbolizes the foreclosure crisis.
"The future was going to be southwest Florida," said Victor Vangelakos, 45, a fire captain who planned to eventually retire and live permanently in the condo.
Most of the other tenants in the 200-unit condo didn't close on their contracts, and the few that did have transferred to an adjacent building owned by the same company because more people live there.
The Vangelakos' mortgage lender will not allow them to do the same.
That leaves them as the sole residents of the Oasis Tower One.
"It's a beautiful building," said their attorney, John Ewing, who is representing 27 others who made deposits on units. "The problem is, it's a very lonely building."
When the Vangelakos' travel from Weehawken, N.J., to spend a week or a few days in their Florida home, they have exclusive use of the pool, game room and gym, but they miss having a few tenants around.
"Being from the city, it's very eerie," Vangelakos said. "It's almost like a scary movie."
A large, circular fountain in front of the building is dry. The automatic glass doors that lead to the front lobby are locked. On the front desk is a guest sign-in sheet. The last entry: Feb. 13, 2009.
"It's like time froze here six months ago," Ewing said.
Vangelakos said they closed on the apartment in the fall, unaware the other tenants had failed to follow through. When they visited around Christmas, they didn't think much of the emptiness. They were just happy to be there.
"We wanted to believe," Cathy Vangelakos said. "We were looking for what we were offered."
On subsequent visits, however, the building grew more deserted.
The lights on the pool and palm trees were off. Their garbage shoot was sealed, a trash bin placed in front of their unit instead.



Despite the empty units, they faithfully parked in their assigned spot on the second story of the parking garage. Then those lights went off, too.
Then there were security concerns. One night, someone pounded on their door at 11 p.m. They called the front desk at the next door building, which contacted police. A search turned up no one, though a pool entrance was open.
Another morning they awoke to find lounge chairs in the pool.
The parents and their children sleep with their cell phones by their beds.
"I'm not a chicken, but this is a big building," Cathy Vangelakos said.
Betsy McCoy, vice president and associated general counsel with The Related Group, which sold the family their unit, said they have tried to help find a solution — even offering them a unit in the building next door, free of cost, while the situation is resolved.
"They haven't wanted to take us up on that," McCoy said Friday. "They frankly rejected every solution and offer and proposal that we've come up with."
McCoy said some of the interested buyers who put down deposits lost their jobs, others were unable to get mortgages and some were just nervous when the financial collapse came.
The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area in Lee County has some of the worst economic stress — a combination of foreclosures, unemployment and bankruptcies — in the country, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of more than 3,100 U.S. counties.
The latest AP Economic Stress Index, which assigns each county a score from 1 to 100 with higher numbers reflecting the greatest stress from the recession, found Lee County had a score of more than 20. Anything above 11 is considered stressed.
Victor Vangelakos said they don't want to move to the tower next door because they would still be paying the mortgage and maintenance costs on the condo they own. They paid $430,000 for the unit and took out a $336,000 mortgage — essentially spending their life savings.
He'd like for The Related Group to buy them out.
"They want us to be refugees in Tower II," Victor Vangelakos said. "That's not how I expected us to live here."
The family's attorney said he has filed two lawsuits on behalf of would-be tenants because the building wasn't finished as promised. He said they expected a clubhouse, marina, private cinema and restaurants.
McCoy said those amenities could be developed, but were never promised.
On Friday evening, the pool area was dark, most of the doors locked. Cathy Vangelakos and her 19-year-old daughter, Amanda, stepped into an elevator to head up to their unit. "Going up," an automated voice chimed.
"Going up," Cathy Vangelakos said. "That's all we hear."
 

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Treehouse, thought you would want to read this article.

********************************************

Fla. highrise has 32 stories, but just 1 tenant


capt.de782f1559ca46b68a48483b83d93355.lonely_highrise_flwl101.jpg




In this photo taken Thursday, July 30, 2009, the 32-story building, in which the only tenants are the Vangelakos family, is seen in Ft. Myers, Fla. Most of the other tenants in the 200-unit condo didn't close on their contracts, and the few that did have transferred to an adjacent building owned by the same company because more people live there.

<CITE class=vcard>By CHRISTINE ARMARIO, Associated Press Writer Christine Armario, Associated Press Writer </CITE>– <ABBR class=timedate title=2009-08-01T12:37:54-0700>Sat Aug 1, 3:37 pm ET

</ABBR>FORT MYERS, Fla. – The Vangelakos' southwest Florida condominium has marble floors, a large pool overlooking a river and modern furnishings that speak of affluence and luxury. What they don't have in the 32-story building is a single neighbor.
The New Jersey family of five purchased their unit four years ago, when Fort Myers was in the midst of a housing boom and any hints of an impending financial crisis were buried in lofty dreams of expansion and development. They made a $10,000 down payment and eagerly watched as builders transformed an empty lot into an opulent high rise, one that now symbolizes the foreclosure crisis.
"The future was going to be southwest Florida," said Victor Vangelakos, 45, a fire captain who planned to eventually retire and live permanently in the condo.
Most of the other tenants in the 200-unit condo didn't close on their contracts, and the few that did have transferred to an adjacent building owned by the same company because more people live there.
The Vangelakos' mortgage lender will not allow them to do the same.
That leaves them as the sole residents of the Oasis Tower One.
"It's a beautiful building," said their attorney, John Ewing, who is representing 27 others who made deposits on units. "The problem is, it's a very lonely building."
When the Vangelakos' travel from Weehawken, N.J., to spend a week or a few days in their Florida home, they have exclusive use of the pool, game room and gym, but they miss having a few tenants around.
"Being from the city, it's very eerie," Vangelakos said. "It's almost like a scary movie."
A large, circular fountain in front of the building is dry. The automatic glass doors that lead to the front lobby are locked. On the front desk is a guest sign-in sheet. The last entry: Feb. 13, 2009.
"It's like time froze here six months ago," Ewing said.
Vangelakos said they closed on the apartment in the fall, unaware the other tenants had failed to follow through. When they visited around Christmas, they didn't think much of the emptiness. They were just happy to be there.
"We wanted to believe," Cathy Vangelakos said. "We were looking for what we were offered."
On subsequent visits, however, the building grew more deserted.
The lights on the pool and palm trees were off. Their garbage shoot was sealed, a trash bin placed in front of their unit instead.



Despite the empty units, they faithfully parked in their assigned spot on the second story of the parking garage. Then those lights went off, too.
Then there were security concerns. One night, someone pounded on their door at 11 p.m. They called the front desk at the next door building, which contacted police. A search turned up no one, though a pool entrance was open.
Another morning they awoke to find lounge chairs in the pool.
The parents and their children sleep with their cell phones by their beds.
"I'm not a chicken, but this is a big building," Cathy Vangelakos said.
Betsy McCoy, vice president and associated general counsel with The Related Group, which sold the family their unit, said they have tried to help find a solution — even offering them a unit in the building next door, free of cost, while the situation is resolved.
"They haven't wanted to take us up on that," McCoy said Friday. "They frankly rejected every solution and offer and proposal that we've come up with."
McCoy said some of the interested buyers who put down deposits lost their jobs, others were unable to get mortgages and some were just nervous when the financial collapse came.
The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan area in Lee County has some of the worst economic stress — a combination of foreclosures, unemployment and bankruptcies — in the country, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of more than 3,100 U.S. counties.
The latest AP Economic Stress Index, which assigns each county a score from 1 to 100 with higher numbers reflecting the greatest stress from the recession, found Lee County had a score of more than 20. Anything above 11 is considered stressed.
Victor Vangelakos said they don't want to move to the tower next door because they would still be paying the mortgage and maintenance costs on the condo they own. They paid $430,000 for the unit and took out a $336,000 mortgage — essentially spending their life savings.
He'd like for The Related Group to buy them out.
"They want us to be refugees in Tower II," Victor Vangelakos said. "That's not how I expected us to live here."
The family's attorney said he has filed two lawsuits on behalf of would-be tenants because the building wasn't finished as promised. He said they expected a clubhouse, marina, private cinema and restaurants.
McCoy said those amenities could be developed, but were never promised.
On Friday evening, the pool area was dark, most of the doors locked. Cathy Vangelakos and her 19-year-old daughter, Amanda, stepped into an elevator to head up to their unit. "Going up," an automated voice chimed.
"Going up," Cathy Vangelakos said. "That's all we hear."

Nobody down here wants to live next door to a bunch of yankees.
 

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When the $8,000 credit expires in April/June there
should be a good market for a buyer in July.
 

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Housing economics still make absolutely no sense. The decline was stopped briefly due to government intervention in billions of dollars. Banks didn't have to release their foreclosure inventory immediately because Uncle Sam gave them billions. There were moratoriums in most states saying "don't foreclose." The bailout is gone, the moratoriums are gone, perhaps they will finally allow the free market to correct itself.

With record unemployment, a ridiculous amount of shadow inventory, a new wave of foreclosures coming, no banks loaning any money, all of the reasonable "deals" being all cash, I see absolutely no reason to buy right now. There's people holding on to their properties because they're underwater and have this delusional belief that the market is coming back. It isn't, economics show that.

The only way I would buy a home is if it makes sense REGIONALLY. There are plenty of states that didn't see this bubble and aren't in the economic conditions of the rest of the country. Mostly rural areas dependent on farming. You have to look at your area and the data. What's the average household income for your zip code? Take that number and multiply it by 5.5. If the average house price isn't that number, you're in a market that still needs to come down. 5.5 is actually generous, that's assuming a 5% rate, which is very low. I got this from taking average income (X) and multiplying by .36 (Max PITI) dividing by 12 to get monthly income, then multiplying by 185 (PMT to Price ratio for 5% loan).

I posted a chart at the top of the of the mortgage resets coming. The only thing that we've completely rid ourselves of are the subprime mortgages. Now the ALT-A and Option ARMs are coming and this will hit the higher income areas. Subprime was designed for people who had no money in the first place, the rest of the loans had higher amounts and in more desirable areas. For example, in Southern California the subprime foreclosures hit the Inland Empire hard. Desirable areas like the Westside, South Bay are didn't have these loans, they had the ALT-A and Option ARMs. When these reset in the next year, those areas will fall in price big time, which will hurt the entire market. If Redondo Beach becomes affordable, why would you live in Hawthorne or Gardena?
 

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I think the problem with condos (as non-primary residence) is between high association dues and property taxes, you are effectively renting what you own. Unless you use it all the time or rent it out, it doesn't make sense to buy them, hotels are better. I think about it sometimes but it always come back to that. Correct me if I'm wrong.
 

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I have a friend who owns properties in CA and Utah and really thinks now is the time to buy in Utah. He says one may be able to sell profitably in a year or so with a loan at 6%. Any thoughts?
 

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I feel the home owners that bought when the market peaked.

I got out of California when the market was peaked. Sold my home for double what I paid for it. The new owners will NEVER be able to sell that home what they paid for it from me.

There were homes up the street from where I lived going in the high 800's. Now around 40-50% of them are vacant. If any of the owners now tried to sell, they'd be real lucky to get 300K.
 

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Falling House Prices Are The Solution, Not The Problem

[SIZE=-1]By Patrick Killelea, last updated Wed 17 Jul 2009
[/SIZE]

  1. House prices will keep falling in most places because those prices are still dangerously high compared to incomes and rents. Banks say a safe mortgage is a maximum of 3 times the buyer's yearly income with 20% downpayment. Landlords say a safe price is a maximum of 15 times the tenant's yearly rent. Yet in coastal areas, both those safety rules are still being violated. Buyers are still borrowing 6 times their income and putting only 3% down, and sellers are still asking 30 times annual rent, even after recent price declines. Renting is a cash business that reflects what people can really pay based on their salary, not how much they can borrow. Salaries and rents prove that prices will keep falling for a long time. Anyone who bought a "bargain" this time last year is already sitting on a very painful loss.
  2. It's still much cheaper to rent than to own the same thing. On the coasts, yearly rents are less than 3% of purchase price and mortgage rates are 6%, so it costs twice as much to borrow money to buy a house than it does to borrow (rent) the house itself. Worse, total owner costs including taxes, maintenance, and insurance come to about 9% of purchase price, which is three times the cost of renting. Buying a house is still a very bad deal for the buyer on the coasts, but it does make sense to buy in Michigan and some other places where prices have fallen into line with salaries and rents. Check whether you should rent or buy in your own area with this NY Times calculator.The bottom will be here when buying a house to rent out clearly makes money. At that point it will be justified to buy because rent can cover the mortgage and all expenses if necessary, eliminating much of the risk. For a rough indication of the wisdom of buying a house, look at the yearly-rent/purchase-price ratio for the model of house in question:

    3% = do not buy
    6% = borderline
    9% = ok to buy</pre>So for example, it's OK to pay $133,000 for a house that would cost you $1,000 per month to rent. That's $12,000 per year in rent, divided by $133,000, so about 9%. But it is foolish to pay $400,000 for that same house, because renting it would cost you only 3% of that per year. Renting in that case means getting the use of the house for free, paying only the property tax and maintenance (which are about 3%).
  3. It's a terrible time to buy when interest rates are low, like now. Realtors just lie without shame about this fundamental fact. Prices fall as interest rates rise, because a given monthly payment covers a smaller mortgage at a higher interest rate. Since interest rates have nowhere to go but up, prices have nowhere to go but down. The way to win the game is to have cash on hand to buy outright at a low price when others cannot borrow very much because of high interest rates. To buy at a time of very low interest rates is a mistake.It is definitely far better to pay a low price with a high interest rate than a high price with a low interest rate, even if the mortgage payment is the same either way.
    • First of all, your property taxes will be lower with a low purchase price.
    • Second, a low price gives you the ability to pay it all off instead of being a debt-slave forever.
    • Third, prices will definitely fall as interest rates rise -- so paying a high price may trap you "under water", meaning you'll have a mortgage larger than the value of the house. Then you will not be able to refinance, and won't be able to sell without a loss. Even if you get a long-term fixed rate mortgage, when rates inevitably go up the value of your property will go down. Paying a low price minimizes this possibility.
  4. The US economy will not recover until house prices are allowed to fall to prices buyers can easily pay on a normal salary. The primary evil in the economy is government "affordability" programs which encourage debt, making prices higher, not lower. True affordability is not more debt -- true affordability is lower prices. The government's false affordability programs have created more debt than can ever possibly be repaid. Credit rating agencies lied about the value of this debt, scaring off investors.When house prices finally fall to affordable levels, and foolish lenders and foolish borrowers are finally allowed to fail, then the economy will work again: there will be investment based on real production instead of on financial speculation, jobs will be created, and money will be earned and spent. Currently, we have no investment because the government is punishing savers and investors with policies that waste their honestly earned money to cover the foolish gambling losses of others.
  5. Prices disconnected from Gross Domestic Product. The value of housing in the US depends a lot on the value of what the US actually produces. Not only is the GDP decreasing, jobs are being lost in large numbers. It does not make sense to buy when more jobs will be lost and the price people can pay will decrease. Unemployment drives housing prices down. It also does not make sense to buy when your own job is in danger.
  6. Buyers borrowed too much money and cannot pay the interest. Now there are mass foreclosures, and Congress is taking a trillion dollars of your money to pay the mortgage investment losses for banks. The plan is to overpay the banks for bad mortgages, claiming that this will support the housing market. It will not work, since bank profits have nothing to do with housing prices. But it has protected Goldman Sachs from losses on their gambles, and even given them record bonuses at taxpayer expense. It is now clear that if you can get your CEO appointed Treasury Secretary, you can easily fleece taxpayers with no public protests.We also have legal contracts being modified to stop even well-justified foreclosures. No one was forced to borrow money. It was a choice -- a very bad choice, but completely voluntary. Grownups should be responsible for their own actions. To prevent a justified foreclosure is also to prevent a deserving family from buying that house at a low price, not to mention what this does to faith in contract law. No one in government or the press will even mention that everyone in foreclosure trouble got themselves into that spot by voluntarily borrowing too much money.
    Should taxes be used to pay the debts of irresponsible borrowers, no matter how much they over-borrowed or overpaid for a house? Should savers be forced to pay the debts of other people who cannot afford "their homes" no matter what price they paid or how far it is beyond their actual financial means? If so, go buy the most expensive house you can right now! Borrow as much as you possibly can to buy a bigger house, and don't pay it back, knowing that Congress will force the real repayment obligation onto others, onto people who are living within their means, so that you can stay in "your home".
    Banks happily loaned whatever amount borrowers wanted as long as the banks could then sell the loan, pushing the default risk onto Fannie Mae (taxpayers) or onto buyers of mortgage-backed bonds. Now that it has become clear that a trillion dollars in foolish mortgage loans will not be repaid, Fannie Mae is under pressure not to buy risky loans and investors do not want mortgage-backed bonds. This means that the money available for mortgages is falling, and house prices will keep falling, probably for another five years or more. This is not just a subprime problem. All mortgages will be harder to get.
    A return to traditional lending standards means a return to traditional prices, which are far below current prices.
  7. Extreme use of leverage. Leverage means using debt to amplify gain. Most people forget that losses get amplified as well. If a buyer puts 10% down and the house goes down 10%, he has lost 100% of his money on paper. If he has to sell due to job loss or an interest rate hike, he's bankrupt in the real world.It's worse than that. House prices do not even have to fall to cause big losses. The cost of selling a house is 6% because of the realtor lobby's corruption of US legislators. On a $300,000 house, that's $18,000 lost even if prices just stay flat. So a 4% decline in housing prices bankrupts all those with 10% equity or less.
  8. Shortage of first-time buyers. From The Herald: "We were all corrupted by the housing boom, to some extent. People talked endlessly about how their houses were earning more than they did, never asking where all this free money was coming from. Well the truth is that it was being stolen from the next generation. Houses price increases don't produce wealth, they merely transfer it from the young to the old - from the coming generation of families who have to burden themselves with colossal debts if they want to own, to the baby boomers who are about to retire and live on the cash they make when they downsize."High house prices have been very unfair to new families, especially those with children. It is foolish for them to buy at current prices, yet government leaders never talk about how lower house prices are good for pretty much everyone except bankers, instead preferring to sacrifice American families to make sure bankers have plenty of debt to earn interest on. If you own a house and ever want to upgrade, you benefit from falling prices because you'll save more on your next house than you'll lose in selling your current house. Every "affordability" program drives prices higher by pushing buyers deeper into debt. To really help Americans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be completely eliminated, along with the mortgage-interest deduction. Canada has no mortgage-interest deduction at all, and has a more affordable and stable housing market because of that.
    The government keeps house prices unaffordably high through programs that increase buyer debt, and then pretends to be interested in affordable housing. No one in government except Ron Paul ever talks about the obvious solution: less debt and lower house prices. The real result of every "affordability" program is to keep you in debt for the rest of your life so that you have to keep working. Lower house prices would liberate millions of people from decades of labor each. There is never anything in the press about the millions of people that were hurt and continue to be hurt by high house prices.
    The government pretends to be interested in affordable housing, but now that housing is becoming affordable, they want to stop it? Their actions speak louder than their words.
  9. Surplus of speculators. Nationally, 25% of houses bought the last few years were pure speculation, not houses to live in, and the speculators are going into foreclosure in large numbers now. Even the National Association of House Builders admits that "Investor-driven price appreciation looms over some housing markets."
  10. Deflation. There is fear of inflation, but it's not likely in the next few years. The actual amount of money created by the Fed lately is a trillion dollars, which sounds huge, but is small compared to the $10 trillion drop in housing "values" and another $10 trillion drop in stock market capitalization. The US government will not print extreme amounts of cash like Zimbabwe did, because significant inflation would mean that foreigners would no longer lend money to the US government unless interest rates were much higher to compensate them for inflation losses. Higher interest rates would push more people with adjustable mortgages over the edge. The most likely scenario is like Japan: low inflation and low interest rates, with falling house prices for years to come.
  11. Fraud. It was common for speculators take out a loan for up to 50% more than the price of the house. The appraiser went along with the inflated price, or he did not ever get called back to do another appraisal. The speculator then paid the seller his asking price (much less than the loan amount), and used the extra money to make mortgage payments on the unreasonably large mortgage until he could find a buyer to take the house off his hands for more than he paid. Worked great during the boom. Now it doesn't work at all, unless the speculator simply skips town with the extra money.
  12. Baby boomers retiring. There are 77 million Americans born between 1946-1964. One-third have zero retirement savings. The oldest are 62. The only money they have is equity in a house, so they must sell.
  13. Huge glut of empty housing. Builders are being forced to drop prices even faster than owners. Builders have huge excess inventory that they cannot sell, and more houses are completed each day, making the housing slump worse.
  14. Failure to re-regulate finance. The Graham, Leach, Bliley Act did away with the depression-era safety constraints placed on banks. This paved the way for record profits in the finance industry and an effective takeover of the US government by large banks, which has not yet been reversed.
  15. The best summary explanation, from Business Week: "Today's housing prices are predicated on an impossible combination: the strong growth in income and asset values of a strong economy, plus the ultra-low interest rates of a weak economy. Either the economy's long-term prospects will get worse or rates will rise. In either scenario, housing will weaken."
 

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question for letsgohoosiers:

You seem to know your stuff and I appreciate your posts. Where can I find average household income for your zip code info? I googled it no help. thks.
 

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Anybody think Real Estate is a buy at these levels?

Spring is in the air....d1g1t


A little over a year since you poised this question.................AND PRICES HAVE DECLINED EVEN FURTHER IN MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.
 

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It looks like vaulted can move out of his treehouse now.
 

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Is Doug banned?

I was wondering where hes been.

How can someone like Doug get banned?

Its not like this forum is busting the seems with posters or something
 

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