This post should be referred to as swiss cheese.
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08-01-2007, 02:07 PM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; font-weight: normal;" align="right"> #
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RX Wizard
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 8,317
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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> The "hissing bubble"
is just another word for correction. I'm sorry, we are not headed for another depression because of a
correcting market that got overheated with a
very small number (in relation to actual home owners) that played with monopoly money.
tThe vast majority of homeowners can and will continue to make their paymen, despite what happens to their equity. Just like the housing recession before, and the one before it. At the end of the day, the home they bought 30 years ago is worth hundreds of thousands more than when they bought it.
You can research real estate cycles and trends for the past hundred years.
It will take a total collapse of the economy before real estate becomes a bad investment long term...and even then it will rise from the ashes.
As long as people are working and can afford their payment, they are not going to leave their home just because they have lost their equity, or worse,
are upside down. Unemployment is a far bigger threat than rising interest rates. Again, the number of "investors" trying to make a quick buck is a marginal figure compared to long-term homeowners. Many of those investors are already out of the game, or are in the process of losing their ass as we speak (I know a guy with 27 homes all going back to the bank)
By the way, I've read completely contradictory data to that cited in Post 55.
The sky is hardly falling in San Diego. I lived through the last recession and this one has a long way to go before it reaches the bottom in that city. I remember the chicken little stories well and how there had never been outmigration ever in the city and that there was a major oversupply of housing there. It took four years to rebound and when it did, prices averaged at least 10% growth for 10 years. It is an insulated market...at worst there is a price correction, and so far the
correction has been minimal. San Diego has always been at the top of the least affordable index for a reason, people will always want to live there, only more so if and when prices drop.
As for Las Vegas, there is a rebound effect in any growing housing market when it comes to inventory. When you are building 5,000 new homes per month, there is a real good chance you are going to be hit with an oversupply of housing when the engine slows....and here we are. Regardless,
the city continues to generate new jobs, and your average joe with a hammer is making at minimum $60,000, that makes it real easy to afford a $250,000 to $300,000 home. I expect another 20% to 30% price
correction....At the end of the day
I'm still over what I paid for the house, and when the market emerges prices will increase again.
Bubble...
correction...call it what you want. The real estate market was due to decline and will continue to do so for a few more years. I expected it a few years before it really started.
At some point the
correction will end and prices will rise well above what we see today. People still bought houses when interest rates were double digits, some near 20%...prices still rose. We are in a down cycle, but the sun will shine again. We as a people are always going to not only want, but need a place to sleep at night, to keep our shit. You can't sleep on a bond or a stock dividend.
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