I Hope The Housing Market Crashes

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fish: the condos are in a good location with renters already there.....still thinking of taking a shot....
 

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I may be slightly overdoing it.
But the main point is, we are still way way way too high.
We are closer to the top then the bottom.
I expect at least another 40% drop in the next 5 years.
It will take another 4 or 5 years to hit full bottom.
We still have fanny and freddie that his not been worked out yet.

I see so much more downside we have not even hardly begun yet.




where i live in wv, i dont think their will be a change in real estate....nothing going up or down....pretty much just staying the same.....since the recent fall in other parts of the country, wv has remained pretty stable with no change...

but i have looked for some beach property....it looks like it fallen a good amount.....im thinking it will fall some more....
 

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Still in my Treehouse haha. I wish I had a book written about me making billions off the housing crash like Paulson. Instead I sit and watch the debacle as it grounds slowly lower and lower....If and when I buy it won't be the bottom, just out of need as I have a family now and I only ever wanted a small house....Good to see this thread alive and well 6 years later.
 

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Still in my Treehouse haha. I wish I had a book written about me making billions off the housing crash like Paulson. Instead I sit and watch the debacle as it grounds slowly lower and lower....If and when I buy it won't be the bottom, just out of need as I have a family now and I only ever wanted a small house....Good to see this thread alive and well 6 years later.


Enjoy the family..........wishing them all the best.

FH
 

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This bubble will bust similarly to Nasdaq and other bubbles throughout history.

Nothing at all is different...everyone is in the game and many believe it is impossible to lose money in real estate.

Many will be shown that in fact it is possible to lose staggering amounts of $$$ in real estate.

These people flipping condos are playing a game of the greater fool. Anyone currently playing this game, consider yourself warned.

Adjustable rate & interest only mortgages are going to blow out many people who were duped into buying more expensive homes.

:drink:


I miss this poster. Lots of great posters that dont post anymore in this thread
 

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Did this guy have a crystal ball or something?
8-1-2007



If it were only to last 2 or 3 years, it wouldnt be nearly as great a problem.

However, I think this estimate is quite a bit shorter than whats going to happen.

First, the govt will keep printing money thinking thats going to fix the problems, when in fact, that is the primary source of the problem.

This recent housing boom was nearly completely artificial...mostly fueled when the fed cut interest rates to 1% from 2001-2005.

During that time, there was not been any massive job creation, no real wealth being created (outside the r.e. bubble itself), in fact, when the blowoff phase of this bubble happened, it was on tail end of another massive bubble bursting...the nasdaq crash (down 82% from 2000-2002).

Agree there are particular markets that are more insulated than overall national market.

This current American real estate bubble is arguably the largest in American history. Whats amazing is how many people this time are in on the gag and how tremendous it became before finally falling apart.

If a person is living in a house thats paid or paying and their job is safe, its not the end of the world.

Unfortunately, too many people overborrowed, leveraged to the stars, borrowed against their homes, and frankly they just dont understand that after factoring all costs and expenses (most importantly inflation), a house is a depreciating asset.

I remember sitting at a blackjack table in 2005 with poster redeye. Other than he and I, everyone else at the table was selling, lending, flipping, or going to become the next real estate tycoon.

To be frank, the party is over for a while. People that foolishly thought prices would never drop and would only rise to the stars are finally being awakened.

Post #55 from vaulted thouse does alot to explain the bubble.
 

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Did this guy have a crystal ball or something?
8-1-2007

Dawoof has literally SAVED/MADE me thousands and thousands over the years...................no poster in history has put more cash in my pockets and bank account.
 

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Dawoof has literally SAVED/MADE me thousands and thousands over the years...................no poster in history has put more cash in my pockets and bank account.


DAWOOF GIVING ME way TO MUCH CREDIT.............



Recall in 2006-07 him stating that one will know when the housing market has hit rock bottom and that will be when I purchase my next house..............for the record, that time has not come yet, but it's getting close.

Think we are headed down in most areas of the country over the next 12 months, not much, but still down.
 

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In an off-hand remark before cameras and microphones, economist and housing market guru Robert Shiller opined earlier this year that he would not be shocked if there was another 10% to 25% in the nation's home price plunge -- and he's not backing down from that statement.
At a S&P Housing Summit in New York, Shiller on Thursday reiterated his fears of falling home prices. It's not a forecast, he said, just a comment on his understanding of housing market trends.


He explained that speculative markets, like stocks or commodities, act like random walks. They go up and down all the time. Housing market direction tends to be more consistent.
"I worry that this is a real and continuing downturn, like in Japan," Shiller said. "It had a boom in the 1980s that peaked in 1991. Prices declined in the major cities for 15 straight years after that."


The U.S. housing market is hard to predict because the boom and bust it went through was unique. Shiller has studied historical price data back to the 1890s and found nothing like it.
"This is the biggest housing boom and bust in U.S. history," he said. "The bubble was unique. "That makes it impossible for statisticians to forecast because they deal with things that repeat themselves. You see a pattern and expect it to repeat."
 

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In an off-hand remark before cameras and microphones, economist and housing market guru Robert Shiller opined earlier this year that he would not be shocked if there was another 10% to 25% in the nation's home price plunge -- and he's not backing down from that statement.
At a S&P Housing Summit in New York, Shiller on Thursday reiterated his fears of falling home prices. It's not a forecast, he said, just a comment on his understanding of housing market trends.


He explained that speculative markets, like stocks or commodities, act like random walks. They go up and down all the time. Housing market direction tends to be more consistent.
"I worry that this is a real and continuing downturn, like in Japan," Shiller said. "It had a boom in the 1980s that peaked in 1991. Prices declined in the major cities for 15 straight years after that."


The U.S. housing market is hard to predict because the boom and bust it went through was unique. Shiller has studied historical price data back to the 1890s and found nothing like it.
"This is the biggest housing boom and bust in U.S. history," he said. "The bubble was unique. "That makes it impossible for statisticians to forecast because they deal with things that repeat themselves. You see a pattern and expect it to repeat."




At a recent conference of investment big-wigs, Shiller talked a gloomy outlook for most investments and then singled out farmland as his best bet. “My only bullish call is farmland,” he said.
 

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I am almost certain we are still closer to the top then we are to the bottom.
Even with government intervention I still believe it.
I see the day when 60K cash can get you a very nice house.
 

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I am almost certain we are still closer to the top then we are to the bottom.
Even with government intervention I still believe it.
I see the day when 60K cash can get you a very nice house.

60k can do that right now in many areas of the country..............
 

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The Gov should just pull the plug on Fannie & Freddi and let the housing market fall, quick death or slow death is still a DEATH. At least quick death will ensure the recovery faster.

Imagine you can buy an ocean front house for 100K in Florida.
 

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The Gov should just pull the plug on Fannie & Freddi and let the housing market fall, quick death or slow death is still a DEATH. At least quick death will ensure the recovery faster.

Imagine you can buy an ocean front house for 100K in Florida.

It would be decent for rats.......not much more.
 

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i'm closing on a house friday and the process has been a horror story from the start...the amount of documentation and other asinine shit i've had to deal with is enough to make my head explode....not only is nobody willing to catch a falling knife, not only is nobody able to get credit...but if you are able to run the credit gauntlet and have the balls to buy now you still have to face a TSA-esque strip search of your finances and financial history...i personally feel the housing market is screwed for a LONG time....i do NOT expect to make any money in the future by being a homeowner...

low rates and a haircut in homeprices isn't sparking any interest...that means we need even lower rates and even lower prices...this winter the housing market is gonna have the life of a freaking crematory
 

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It's nowhere near as ridiculous as foreigner want to buy a house over here. My friend bought a house for his daughter who goes to school in Houston, the process was insane.

US should have done what Canada, Australia and New Zealand have been doing-easing immigration law and make it easier for foreigners to own properties in the US. Asian saving rate is 50% and they do not trust their commie gov, especially Chinese and Vietnamese. All they want is to buy a house and to raise family here. The would bring in cash and the local can collect tax on the property, it's a win-win for everyone. But NO NO NO AND NOOOOOOOOO, anyone with that much cash must be associate with terrorist.
 

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It's nowhere near as ridiculous as foreigner want to buy a house over here. My friend bought a house for his daughter who goes to school in Houston, the process was insane.

US should have done what Canada, Australia and New Zealand have been doing-easing immigration law and make it easier for foreigners to own properties in the US. Asian saving rate is 50% and they do not trust their commie gov, especially Chinese and Vietnamese. All they want is to buy a house and to raise family here. The would bring in cash and the local can collect tax on the property, it's a win-win for everyone. But NO NO NO AND NOOOOOOOOO, anyone with that much cash must be associate with terrorist.

Fuck that
 

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A very knowledgeable and successful Realty person stated that now is absolutely the time to buy. 2 bedroom condos near the Loop in Chicago are renting for $2800 well above historic levels. These same condos can be purchased where the monthly payments including all escrows would be near $1800 to $1900. He says Banks are going to ease shortly and this is where buying will be encouraged. At that time he says interest rates will have bottomed and a recovery will begin. He says this phenomenon has never occurred in history.
 

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A very knowledgeable and successful Realty person stated that now is absolutely the time to buy. 2 bedroom condos near the Loop in Chicago are renting for $2800 well above historic levels. These same condos can be purchased where the monthly payments including all escrows would be near $1800 to $1900. He says Banks are going to ease shortly and this is where buying will be encouraged. At that time he says interest rates will have bottomed and a recovery will begin. He says this phenomenon has never occurred in history.

.........it will even be a better time to buy 12 months from now.

In most of the country, housing is going nowhere but down.
 

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You may miss out and kick yourself. This ratio of renting and buying with monthly payments cannot continue for long. Renters aren't gonna pay a dime more on renting when they can buy. It is true the Realty expert noted that there are held back foreclosures that will enter the market but Banks are slowly bringing the remaining that are left forward. This could take as long as a year BUT this fact is factored in for the most part and shouldn't have too dire an effect on prices dropping too much this point forward. Once the ball gets rolling 4% interst rates will be long gone. Don't wait til Sunday to bet Sunday's games, bet them on Monday or Tuesday befor line changes against you.
 

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