I may be slightly overdoing it.
But the main point is, we are still way way way too high.
We are closer to the top then the bottom.
I expect at least another 40% drop in the next 5 years.
It will take another 4 or 5 years to hit full bottom.
We still have fanny and freddie that his not been worked out yet.
I see so much more downside we have not even hardly begun yet.
Still in my Treehouse haha. I wish I had a book written about me making billions off the housing crash like Paulson. Instead I sit and watch the debacle as it grounds slowly lower and lower....If and when I buy it won't be the bottom, just out of need as I have a family now and I only ever wanted a small house....Good to see this thread alive and well 6 years later.
This bubble will bust similarly to Nasdaq and other bubbles throughout history.
Nothing at all is different...everyone is in the game and many believe it is impossible to lose money in real estate.
Many will be shown that in fact it is possible to lose staggering amounts of $$$ in real estate.
These people flipping condos are playing a game of the greater fool. Anyone currently playing this game, consider yourself warned.
Adjustable rate & interest only mortgages are going to blow out many people who were duped into buying more expensive homes.
:drink:
If it were only to last 2 or 3 years, it wouldnt be nearly as great a problem.
However, I think this estimate is quite a bit shorter than whats going to happen.
First, the govt will keep printing money thinking thats going to fix the problems, when in fact, that is the primary source of the problem.
This recent housing boom was nearly completely artificial...mostly fueled when the fed cut interest rates to 1% from 2001-2005.
During that time, there was not been any massive job creation, no real wealth being created (outside the r.e. bubble itself), in fact, when the blowoff phase of this bubble happened, it was on tail end of another massive bubble bursting...the nasdaq crash (down 82% from 2000-2002).
Agree there are particular markets that are more insulated than overall national market.
This current American real estate bubble is arguably the largest in American history. Whats amazing is how many people this time are in on the gag and how tremendous it became before finally falling apart.
If a person is living in a house thats paid or paying and their job is safe, its not the end of the world.
Unfortunately, too many people overborrowed, leveraged to the stars, borrowed against their homes, and frankly they just dont understand that after factoring all costs and expenses (most importantly inflation), a house is a depreciating asset.
I remember sitting at a blackjack table in 2005 with poster redeye. Other than he and I, everyone else at the table was selling, lending, flipping, or going to become the next real estate tycoon.
To be frank, the party is over for a while. People that foolishly thought prices would never drop and would only rise to the stars are finally being awakened.
Post #55 from vaulted thouse does alot to explain the bubble.
Dawoof has literally SAVED/MADE me thousands and thousands over the years...................no poster in history has put more cash in my pockets and bank account.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In an off-hand remark before cameras and microphones, economist and housing market guru Robert Shiller opined earlier this year that he would not be shocked if there was another 10% to 25% in the nation's home price plunge -- and he's not backing down from that statement.
At a S&P Housing Summit in New York, Shiller on Thursday reiterated his fears of falling home prices. It's not a forecast, he said, just a comment on his understanding of housing market trends.
He explained that speculative markets, like stocks or commodities, act like random walks. They go up and down all the time. Housing market direction tends to be more consistent.
"I worry that this is a real and continuing downturn, like in Japan," Shiller said. "It had a boom in the 1980s that peaked in 1991. Prices declined in the major cities for 15 straight years after that."
The U.S. housing market is hard to predict because the boom and bust it went through was unique. Shiller has studied historical price data back to the 1890s and found nothing like it.
"This is the biggest housing boom and bust in U.S. history," he said. "The bubble was unique. "That makes it impossible for statisticians to forecast because they deal with things that repeat themselves. You see a pattern and expect it to repeat."
The Gov should just pull the plug on Fannie & Freddi and let the housing market fall, quick death or slow death is still a DEATH. At least quick death will ensure the recovery faster.
Imagine you can buy an ocean front house for 100K in Florida.
It's nowhere near as ridiculous as foreigner want to buy a house over here. My friend bought a house for his daughter who goes to school in Houston, the process was insane.
US should have done what Canada, Australia and New Zealand have been doing-easing immigration law and make it easier for foreigners to own properties in the US. Asian saving rate is 50% and they do not trust their commie gov, especially Chinese and Vietnamese. All they want is to buy a house and to raise family here. The would bring in cash and the local can collect tax on the property, it's a win-win for everyone. But NO NO NO AND NOOOOOOOOO, anyone with that much cash must be associate with terrorist.
A very knowledgeable and successful Realty person stated that now is absolutely the time to buy. 2 bedroom condos near the Loop in Chicago are renting for $2800 well above historic levels. These same condos can be purchased where the monthly payments including all escrows would be near $1800 to $1900. He says Banks are going to ease shortly and this is where buying will be encouraged. At that time he says interest rates will have bottomed and a recovery will begin. He says this phenomenon has never occurred in history.