How much could you realistically clear a week sports betting?

[barman]

Sumday: It's called mathematics. Most won't win in long term.

Bar: I have no disagreement with this.

S: You shouldn't be encouraging this guy to gamble and waste his money thinking he can do it for a living.

B: A careful perusal of this thread does not show anyone encouraging the OP to do anything.

S: To think you can live off of it is insane.

B: If you've never known anyone who makes a reliable income through sports investing, it's understandable why you would have that perception.

 

[barman]

The transistional question that was posed about midway through this thread was, "Is it possible to make a reliable income through sports betting"?

The answer is, Yes of course.

That should not be extrapolated to infer that "most people who bet on sports can make a reliable living".

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Let's just assume that 100% of posters here have great money management skills. They still have to pick winners which most people can't do regularly.....at least not enough to earn a living.

It's not about "picking winners", it is about finding spots where you have a defined mathematical edge over the posted number. If you are sitting down and forming an opinion on what to bet, then you will not win long term and frankly do not deserve to as you are doing it all wrong.

And before you ask me to explain myself, no winning gambler in there right mind is going to take you by the hand and guide you through the process of defining what mathematical edges you should be looking for. That would be the equivalent of giving a trade secret away to the masses for free. If you can put in the time, and actually come up with new innovative ideas which are based solely on mathematics, you should eventually get there. It may not be during your first year of experimenting, it may not be during your second or third years, even, but at some point you should be able to find something that gives you that elusive mathematical edge. Once you've found it, then comes the fun part - expanding on it and engineering it to make it even better.

Combine all of this with sound money management (bet size being 1-2% of your bankroll, max) and you will be on your way to eventual sports betting success. Just stick with it, and remember to leave all your opinions at the door.

Good luck.

 

[Enfuego]

It's not about "picking winners", it is about finding spots where you have a defined mathematical edge over the posted number. If you are sitting down and forming an opinion on what to bet, then you will not win long term and frankly do not deserve to as you are doing it all wrong.

And before you ask me to explain myself, no winning gambler in there right mind is going to take you by the hand and guide you through the process of defining what mathematical edges you should be looking for. That would be the equivalent of giving a trade secret away to the masses for free. If you can put in the time, and actually come up with new innovative ideas which are based solely on mathematics, you should eventually get there. It may not be during your first year of experimenting, it may not be during your second or third years, even, but at some point you should be able to find something that gives you that elusive mathematical edge. Once you've found it, then comes the fun part - expanding on it and engineering it to make it even better.

Combine all of this with sound money management (bet size being 1-2% of your bankroll, max) and you will be on your way to eventual sports betting success. Just stick with it, and remember to leave all your opinions at the door.

Good luck.

I don't know why you're giving me a gambling lesson here. I didn't start this thread and I didn't ask any questions here. And yes in the end it is about picking winners based on your defined mathematical edge. I, however think you're making it too difficult. I think you lower your amount of plays per day 1-2 and roll with a team that is superior to their opponent. If they win then great and if they lose well then they had an off day.

Also, I would hope those that visit this site that have knowledge would certainly share it. I think that's what this forum is for. I think capping is a whole lot easier than some make it out to be. Take the side that makes sense and you'll be alright.

 

[sumday]

Sumday: It's called mathematics. Most won't win in long term.

Bar: I have no disagreement with this.

S: You shouldn't be encouraging this guy to gamble and waste his money thinking he can do it for a living.

B: A careful perusal of this thread does not show anyone encouraging the OP to do anything.

S: To think you can live off of it is insane.

B: If you've never known anyone who makes a reliable income through sports investing, it's understandable why you would have that perception.

You're talking to a guy that had a winning football season and a killer baseball season, all documented, even revised and updated for you and another because of complaints. Obviously I know it can be done and is being done. My point is it's done by very, very few. Less that 5%.

Chances are this guy won't be in the minority just because of the low possibility of it. It doesn't matter what advice anybody gives him to help him excel.

To expect a regular income on a weekly basis is expecting too much.

 

[OnWisconsin]

it is definitely possible. stay away from the degenerate action junkie plays -- the halftime bets, the impossible parlays, the tv bets -- those plays will eat up a bankroll.

got to have some balls. can't be afraid to wager $500 or more on a game you like because you're afraid of missing next month's rent.

got to have some discipline. after that $500 bet loses, don't double down on a coin flip. wait for the next opportunity.

a lot of wisdom here on the rx. seems like these guys who have been here since 2004 and have like 50 posts are pretty good when they do post that rare play they "really like".

i have 2 bankrolls. one is fairly small, what i like to call my "degenerate action" bankroll. 90% of my plays are taken from this. because i'm a degenerate who has to have a bet going to have a purpose in life. then there's my fat babe. i sit and wait for an opportunity to feed her. and then there's my savings account, which i don't touch except to draw on once a month when the bills and living expenses rear their ugly heads. and then i dip into my bankroll to add what i took out of my savings. because that's the point. if the gambling gods were good to me, then my savings account increases that month as does my bankroll. if not, then my bankroll shrinks to support myself in the real world. once my savings dips below 10k, it's time to consider employment in the real world.

it can be done, but i think to make a living from it you have to start by supplementing your living from it. don't say "i have 10 grand in the bank, i'm gonna quit my job and gamble with it". instead say "i have 10 grand in the bank, and 5 grand which i wish to gamble with". and then say, my savings will never fall below 10k, because i will supplement that with gambling. now, a month goes by and your original bankroll is on life support and you're down to 8k in the savings account, you might want to reconsider....

most gambling books i have read from those who make their living from it talk about being broke for a good part of their life. most gamblers are those who have never actually depended on their winnings to survive. most gamblers do it from paycheck to paycheck. i used to have a really bad habit of nursing my betting account between paydays, only to double down right before payday, knowing that my 9 to 5 job was there for me.

try doing that shit when you know there's not a steady paycheck to bail your ass out. ~~:<<

 

[sumday]

Of course nobody is going to talk anybody on this site out of betting sports so I'll throw in my 2 cents.

Biggest rule is to never chase or place emotional bets after a loss or losing day. I believe that's the biggest downfall for a lot of people. They chase and chase or get emotional and start to snap or win big instantly.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

I don't know why you're giving me a gambling lesson here. I didn't start this thread and I didn't ask any questions here. And yes in the end it is about picking winners based on your defined mathematical edge. I, however think you're making it too difficult. I think you lower your amount of plays per day 1-2 and roll with a team that is superior to their opponent. If they win then great and if they lose well then they had an off day.

Also, I would hope those that visit this site that have knowledge would certainly share it. I think that's what this forum is for. I think capping is a whole lot easier than some make it out to be. Take the side that makes sense and you'll be alright.

Not trying to give you a gambling lesson. In fact, my post was directed to everyone here. I didn't mean for my post to come off that way.

Your approach to winning just doesn't make sense to me. Anyone can do what you suggest. If someone were to even attempt your approach, they would first need to know how to accurately calculate the value for any given team. Then, once they picked those 1-2 teams per day, they could check and see if those teams that they picked had any defined value. If they did, then it would be a play. Now, realistically you would have to have far more data and justification for the team you are picking. Just like you believe that I am making things too difficult, I think you are making things much too simple.

Look at what it took for the Computer Group to win back in the day. That is sort of the same approach to betting that I take. Why do you think Billy Walters is still betting and reportedly with much success? He does the same thing - mathematically finds value in a posted number and bets it at the best number be can possibly get.

As for knowledge being shared on this forum - sure. But, there is certainly some things that would best not be discussed publicly. You can't just go hand out a free meal to everybody, but you sure can help get them headed in the right direction.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

Of course nobody is going to talk anybody on this site out of betting sports so I'll throw in my 2 cents.

Biggest rule is to never chase or place emotional bets after a loss or losing day. I believe that's the biggest downfall for a lot of people. They chase and chase or get emotional and start to snap or win big instantly.

Chasing goes right back to bankroll management. If you are betting only 1-2% of your bankroll on any given play, you should never find yourself in a situation where you are chasing.

As for being emotional, the second emotion kicks in is the second you become just another Joe Public losing his ass. Leave the opinions and emotion at the door. If you get emotional and can find no way to control it, you might as well just quit betting. I have known several people who fit the emotional chaser description to a tee and at the end of the day/week/month/year they are always deep in the hole with no possible way of getting out because they let emotion take over how they bet.

 

[barman]

If you can put in the time, and actually come up with new innovative ideas which are based solely on mathematics, you should eventually get there. It may not be during your first year of experimenting, it may not be during your second or third years, even, but at some point you should be able to find something that gives you that elusive mathematical edge. Once you've found it, then comes the fun part - expanding on it and engineering it to make it even better.

Combine all of this with sound money management (bet size being 1-2% of your bankroll, max) and you will be on your way to eventual sports betting success. Just stick with it, and remember to leave all your opinions at the door.

Good luck.

This is an outstanding summation which describes much of my own experience and that of some of my longer term sports capping colleagues with who I have been associating since 1999.

We share an affinity for actuarial-based handicapping and have over the past decade done our best to methodically assemble a collection of legitimate actuarial angles that contribute to being on the correct side more often than not.

A key component is INTRINZIK's note that one must never expose more than 1 to 2% of your bankroll.

Winning at a +5 Unit per week pace is certainly within reason. But it should be noted that in order to "make a living", one would need to have a Unit size of $200 (to earn $1000 a week).

So if your Unit is $200 and that is no more than 2% of your bank, then you need an Investment bank of at least $10,000.

Therein lies the rub for nearly all of those who make use of our friendly forum.

Most are trying their best to make a go of it with at most a couple thousand bucks and more often far less than that.

Since we all have a desire to "get paid", that leads to most guys betting far above the "1 to 2%" range and thus - despite their best intentions and even having a decent eye for "Picking Winners", they will Bust as soon as they hit a down slump of any length.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

You're talking to a guy that had a winning football season and a killer baseball season, all documented, even revised and updated for you and another because of complaints. Obviously I know it can be done and is being done. My point is it's done by very, very few. Less that 5%.

Chances are this guy won't be in the minority just because of the low possibility of it. It doesn't matter what advice anybody gives him to help him excel.

To expect a regular income on a weekly basis is expecting too much.

I would probably put the percentage of winning sports bettors at somewhere between 2-3%. I'm talking long term, as in 5-10 years. Additionally, probably only 25% of that 2-3% actually do it for a living. Hell, my numbers may be too high for all I know.

With gambling you should of course never expect any regular income. You could have an amazing baseball season only to give 50% of it back during the football season. If you are going to try doing this professionally, you should have a good amount of savings for everyday expenses and your current expenses should not come from that year's winnings.

 

[barman]

SUMDAY astutely notes that one of biggest contributors to going Bust is "chasing".

Implicit in that term is that the bettor will be exposing increased percentages of his Bank in order to offset his most recent Losses.

This exponential increase in exposure can take most any Bank straight to Bust within just a few days (or weeks if football is only sport).

The disciplined sports investor never exposes more than his 1 to 2% and he never feels the need to "chase" because he's in for the long term. In similar vein, the disciplined sports investor has little problem taking days off, even if it's an NFL Sunday or CFB Saturday. In the 2009 sports investing world, there are a solid 300+ "big days" in overall sports.

 

[Enfuego]

Not trying to give you a gambling lesson. In fact, my post was directed to everyone here. I didn't mean for my post to come off that way.

Your approach to winning just doesn't make sense to me. Anyone can do what you suggest. If someone were to even attempt your approach, they would first need to know how to accurately calculate the value for any given team. Then, once they picked those 1-2 teams per day, they could check and see if those teams that they picked had any defined value. If they did, then it would be a play. Now, realistically you would have to have far more data and justification for the team you are picking. Just like you believe that I am making things too difficult, I think you are making things much too simple.

Look at what it took for the Computer Group to win back in the day. That is sort of the same approach to betting that I take. Why do you think Billy Walters is still betting and reportedly with much success? He does the same thing - mathematically finds value in a posted number and bets it at the best number be can possibly get.

As for knowledge being shared on this forum - sure. But, there is certainly some things that would best not be discussed publicly. You can't just go hand out a free meal to everybody, but you sure can help get them headed in the right direction.

Intrinzik, we'll just agree to disagree. I'm not a big player at all and don't pretend to be. I play a little for fun and that's good enough for me. I like the challenge of picking winners and handing them out to people. Not everyone can do what I'm saying because they dont' have the discipline to make 1-2 plays a day.

I'm making it simple because that's what I think it is. When you look at the play I posted today I had the Philly RL at -135. I briefly looked over the numbers and it was an easy selection for me. I didn't need any mathematical value. I looked at it and said that Philly would win by more than 2 runs. Now you can shop for the best line if you'd like but the play is the play and I don't need anything extra to figure that out.

Over the last 6 days I've given out 6 plays and am 6-0 in those plays. There are maybe 3 responses in my thread. The reason for that is a lot of these guys need "action" and want to play more games so they bypass my thread. It's too bad they do or they'd probably be winning.

 

[barman]

With gambling you should of course never expect any regular income. You could have an amazing baseball season only to give 50% of it back during the football season. If you are going to try doing this professionally, you should have a good amount of savings for everyday expenses and your current expenses should not come from that year's winnings.

I'll echo the above, though I'd modify the thought a bit to reset what I just mentioned in my last post, which is that for the more ardent sports investors, there's really not a fixed "season" any more, save for perhaps the months of June and July when MLB is the only daily sport in the North American market.

"Football season" (late Aug to mid January) is heavily overlapped by the final two months of MLB, the first three months of NHL, and the first two months of CBB and NBA.

Most ardent investors are going to have their hands in most all of those sports, though they may not be doing individual capping of each sport. That's where being part of a reliable and trusted network of associates is important.

And lest anyone take that to mean "the Rx Sports Forum", please be clear that's not what I'm saying.

While the RxForum, and other online forums are a great place to meet people with this interest, it takes quite a bit of time to learn who is who and identify the small percentage of Forum members who are honestly doing the often grinding work to identify needed angles and edges in each sport.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

In similar vein, the disciplined sports investor has little problem taking days off, even if it's an NFL Sunday or CFB Saturday. In the 2009 sports investing world, there are a solid 300+ "big days" in overall sports.

This is another very important key to long-term profit. Never, ever bet just for action. Let's say you are looking for a value of =>10% on a MLB side you came up with one that only has a value of 8%, but you realize that you don't have anything other than this one bet that is remotely close to having value. If you are in this partly for the action, you might as well quit right now. I have gone 3-4 days during the "Dog Day's of Summer" without placing a single bet, when there was 11-15 MLB games going on a daily basis. Sure, I had plenty of opportunity to place a bet because there were several plays that were close to meeting the required criteria, but I decided not to force things and to play it safe. I was content with waiting it out and knowing that if I stick to the game plan then I will come out ahead in the long run.

Always stick with what you want to achieve in the long run. Never focus on the short term. If you bet smart, sports betting will become a slowly elevating roller coaster, as opposed to a roller coaster which suddenly falls off a cliff.

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

it is definitely possible. stay away from the degenerate action junkie plays -- the halftime bets, the impossible parlays, the tv bets -- those plays will eat up a bankroll.

got to have some balls. can't be afraid to wager $500 or more on a game you like because you're afraid of missing next month's rent.

First, I will say that you are correct about the degenerate action plays, with the exception of halftime bets. If you know what you are doing, you can often find more value in those than game bets. Parlays and the like are simply lottery tickets, and lotteries are for people who fail at basic mathematics or simply don't care.

Secondly, if you are wagering money that would be considered next month's rent, then I would highly advice you to stop and resume when you have a larger bankroll built up as well as some extra savings to cover the day to day expenses, such as housing, food, etc. The outcome of your bets should not dictate whether or not you pay your rent on time or have food on the table. Absolutely not!

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

I'll echo the above, though I'd modify the thought a bit to reset what I just mentioned in my last post, which is that for the more ardent sports investors, there's really not a fixed "season" any more, save for perhaps the months of June and July when MLB is the only daily sport in the North American market.

"Football season" (late Aug to mid January) is heavily overlapped by the final two months of MLB, the first three months of NHL, and the first two months of CBB and NBA.

Most ardent investors are going to have their hands in most all of those sports, though they may not be doing individual capping of each sport. That's where being part of a reliable and trusted network of associates is important.

And lest anyone take that to mean "the Rx Sports Forum", please be clear that's not what I'm saying.

While the RxForum, and other online forums are a great place to meet people with this interest, it takes quite a bit of time to learn who is who and identify the small percentage of Forum members who are honestly doing the often grinding work to identify needed angles and edges in each sport.

Your are correct. It should be addressed as months. The only reason I think of it differently is because I have different and varying bankrolls for different sports.

 

[sumday]

You can give all the advice you want to a person new to sportsbetting and he may or may not follow it. The most valuable lessons he will learn is through trial and error and experience.

It's easy to advise, ''don't chase your losses'' but will most people follow that advice when they are new? Or any advice for that matter? I'm guessing no.

Trial and error is how you'll learn your lessons. The key is whether or not you actually learn or continue to make mistakes like chasing, betting for action on a ''big game'' just because it's the thing to do, etc.

 

[barman]

To expect a regular income on a weekly basis is expecting too much.

The business does not lend itself to "weekly income", no.

It most certainly can provide a steady source of income when calculated over a 12 month calendar.

And I believe that everyone who has posted so far in this thread is in agreement that the vast majority of those who "wish" they could have such steady income are either unwilling or unable to establish and maintain the habits needed to make that a reality in their lives.

This means that for most folks, it's far more sensible to view the entire topic of "sports betting" from a hobby or entertainment approach.

It does not mean however, that for those both willing and able to do the needed work (willing AND able) that a long term positive expectation cannot be realized.

 

[Enfuego]

The business does not lend itself to "weekly income", no.

It most certainly can provide a steady source of income when calculated over a 12 month calendar.

And I believe that everyone who has posted so far in this thread is in agreement that the vast majority of those who "wish" they could have such steady income are either unwilling or unable to establish and maintain the habits needed to make that a reality in their lives.

This means that for most folks, it's far more sensible to view the entire topic of "sports betting" from a hobby or entertainment approach.

It does not mean however, that for those both willing and able to do the needed work (willing AND able) that a long term positive expectation cannot be realized.

1) Good point.
2) It can be done however the expectations should not be set too high IMO.