You’re not wrong but I don’t agree with your reasoning. Well some of it I do. (He is still only 45, can run again in 2020 or 2024, could run for a Governor spot, etc)
The reason he won’t be Trump’s VP is Trump won’t select him.
Trump is high rolling because of his outsider, no holds barred, fuck Washington attitude. Rubio doesn’t fit that mold.
Maybe someone with a military background, Petraeus?
Maybe a Governor from a swing state, Rick Scott?
I have no idea who Trump will select but I pretty sure it will be non establishment.
It won't be Patraeus. Trump already said as much as he likes him, he's too damaged.
If it's Rubio or Kasich then Trump's "outsider, no holds barred, fuck Washington attitude" was a total ruse and his supporters should prepare themselves for a shitload of establishment "deal making" once he gets to Washington.
If that happens, then I think you'll see a serious movement to CHANGE a broken political system which no longer serves the people.