Why would you need even money on that? Come on man...you don't think bookies are that dumb do you? There's a reason Clinton is even money in most places.
It is a SLAM DUNK that he would not even come CLOSE to winning the Latino/Hispanic vote. That's fucking hilarious!
I certainly wouldn't tie your money up for THAT long but I'd bet my farm, my neighbors, and any others that I could beg, borrow, or steal that no repub would carry Hispanic vote. I doubt Trump would get 15% of it.
If it's 10-1 a week out, I'll gladly bet it. Free money.
I agree he would get destroyed. And with all the other minorities as well, but most especially hispanics. I think he would need probably 67%+ of the white vote to actually win the general. Reagan didn't get even get that in his 2nd election. I sure as hell wouldn't bet on Trump doing it in his first election!!!
And NO, the kool-aiders don't realize it AT ALL! They are delusional. Now if a third party candidate comes along then all bets are off because you just need like 40%, but like you, I also believe he's gonna lose the nomination. I think something is going to derail him along the way. I wouldn't bet on Bush either. I think Trump has a better shot than him to be honest. Bush is TOAST, IMO, and I think it's gonna become obvious over the next few months. Donors are already running away from him. It will be interesting to see what they do after the next debate. I will stick with my gut and say I think Kasich will become the mainstream candidate and ultimately will take down Trump. I also think he's really the only one with a shot in a nationwide election.
If Trump is the nominee though, I think he absolutely will get slaughtered in the general. Right now nobody is running ads against him. He will be VERY EASY to portray as non-presidential. So much so that too many in the country will not be able to hold their nose and vote for him. Just my opinion...
I know the Trump crowd will piss on this because it's from that "commie" Nate Silver but still going to post it anyway.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-ben-carson-surge-may-test-trump/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/a-ben-carson-surge-may-test-trump/
Do you want me to list all the failed 'predictions' from Nate Silver?
His flawed models only work when Dem turnout exceeds GOP turnout (not exactly an impressive feat when the Stupid Party nominates back-to-back RINOs). When the chips are down, Nate will never predict a Republican victory - EVER.
The guy is a hack.
You can model turnout and "enthusiasm" pretty easily. He isn't a statistician by trade so what he is saying is hardly the most advanced analysis on the subject, he was just the best at marketing it and got a little lucky in terms of timing.
He would definitely predict a Republican victory. If Republicans were winning and he was on the wrong side of it, it would eventually cost him his credibility and thus his career.
