Guru's Golden Picks: CFL "Non-Experiment" Week 7

[8ate]

arty:

i think 67 is true number here..

i think ov 59 is a good bet

but gl on your middle attempt

gl

and keep hot guru

gl

:toast:

 

[scottw]

Hmmm, wonder how I should play this one. . .

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Fri 8/5</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>503</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Edmonton Eskimos</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +56 +100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+214 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 59 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2>Props
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>504</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>B.C.Lions</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -56 -110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-234 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 59 -105 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Wonder how long before they catch that.

 

[AFLGuru]

Holy crap talk about line movement!?!?! Damn Scott, I should've waited...

I hate when Pinnacle screws that up, particularly on AFL opening lines... it's like a good bluff in a poker game...

 

[scottw]

It wasn't there long. Guess they couldn't decide if they wanted to make it -5 or -6, so they did both at once.

My luck I would have bet EDM and they would lose 57-0!

 

[AFLGuru]

Here's what I ended up with for tonight's action... a 2nd half play on BC is built into this "system" of wagers tonight if the Eskies can keep it close in the 1st half. If they can't, I'm likely not playing the 2nd half of this one unless it's under the total, or if I get a good feeling that the Eskies were "outlucked" in the 1st half...

Edmonton (+9)/Over 26.5 1st half (1 unit +105)
BC over 31 (1.5 units -110)
BC over 15.5 1st half (1 unit -110)
Edmonton/BC over 55 (4 units +100)
Edmonton/BC under 59.5 (1 unit -110)

The hope and thought on this is that the Eskies can keep it close the entire and game that the Lions score many points once again. I think if the Eskies DO keep it close for 1 half or even lead at the half, a 2nd half play on BC can recoup possibly over losses. If they don't keep it close, BC should easily eclipse team totals.

Here's to a 17-17 game at the half, and a 38-30 BC victory

 

[AFLGuru]

Dickinson not starting for BC tonight... what the hell?

Great... just great... back spasms for Dickenson... Backup QB playing unexpectedly, apparently a speedy QB whom I've never heard of... this could pose LARGE problems for me... very unexpected wrench thrown into this game...

 

[scottw]

Yeah, I got into PINNY and bet back everything, but screwed up the amounts. Wanted 2 units on the under and 1 on EDM, but did it in reverse, I was going so fast.

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah, this really sucks... but Printers played a bunch last year and BC had QB controversy before he got hurt (I think it's the same player that was backing up Dickenson the whole time?)... at least according to the BC guys + my memory thinks this is right...

BC announcers think this might be a big problem for Edmonton, not BC, as planning for Printers wasn't in the gameplan.

 

[SportSavant]

Dickinson not starting for BC tonight... what the hell?

Great... just great... back spasms for Dickenson... Backup QB playing unexpectedly, apparently a speedy QB whom I've never heard of... this could pose LARGE problems for me... very unexpected wrench thrown into this game...

KC Printers won the MVP of the CFL last year, dont worry buddy, he has been furious as to not be playing at all this year, BC will rally.....

 

[AFLGuru]

This is where my lack of CFL historical knowledge comes into play...

2 and out on the first drive of the game for the Lions...

 

[AFLGuru]

3 balls overthrown by Printers... 0 for 3 and a horrid start for the Lions offensively... this has been quite an ominous first 5 minutes...

 

[scottw]

I was quite aware of Printers' MVP season last year, but he found out one hour before game time he was starting, and the whole team learned of it even later. I ran to the laptop and meant to put 2 units on the under and 1 on the side, but I got it reversed. I still have middling opportunities on both plays, and actually now have 2 units on EDM +6 and the over 55, and and 1 unit on the under 59 and BC -3. I'm counting this officially as NO PLAYS for me at all no matter what happens. I would not have made the plays I did had I known no Dickenson. The offense can't help but lose rhythm.

Per the TSN announcers there was "absolute shock" on the Lions sideline when they found out.

 

[AFLGuru]

Finally looks like BC's offense is getting going inside the Edmonton 10... maybe this can get both teams fired up... just took 15 minutes to do it... gotta be almost out of time in the 1st, but a very encouraging BC drive here at the end of the quarter

 

[AFLGuru]

7-0 BC... 3 more TDs in the 2nd quarter please... (this is gonna be a difficult night I can tell...)

 

[SportSavant]

definatly need a couple of special team scores in order to offset that defensive first quarter....


I need the over 55 myself, not feeling too great right about now:monsters-

 

[AFLGuru]

Man oh man Ricky Ray, you're killing me... the purpose here was to AVOID the 28-20 BC victory, and it sure as hell looks like we're headed there... Ray has just made some bonehead throws the past couple weeks...

 

[AFLGuru]

10-0... need a BC TD more in this half and things would be much more on pace for my tastes to salvage something.

 

[AFLGuru]

Edmonton's in huge trouble in this game, but my BC over looks a lot better right now... Two Ray picks on back to back passes... BC in great shape to go up 17-0

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Ricky Ray is doing his best Nealon Greene impression.

 

[AFLGuru]

17-0 BC... 1st half BC over is in... now I need Ricky Ray to remove his head from his a$$... giving up on Edmonton in the 1st half though... come to think of it, I guess I didn't post it, but I'm going to count it in my records regardless for my own purposes... (I had Edmonton first half +3 in the 1st half for 1 unit as I stated I would take before... it'll be on the recap... congrats to those who missed out on that...)