Coconutman... Normally I post the recap at the end of each game. But again, I can't stress enough but to be really careful with me, as this is my first CFL season as a fan of the game and as a bettor. I could be headed for a massive downturn at any given point this season, especially since, through not even half the season, I'm about 2/3 of the way to my AFL mark for last season, and that's my strongest suit by far (even though IMO it was a lousy AFL year).
And Scott, the over will be close... Pulling for Sharky and the under the rest of the way.
With my over complete, I'm going to make the assumption that the Alouettes are gonna hold the Riders under 15 for the last 8 minutes or so left of this game and that the Alouettes are going to cover their first game. That being said, I feel as though the lyrics to "Alouette" is appropriate for the Als first cover of the season here in week 7...
Alouette, gentille Alouette
Alouette, je te plumerai.
Je te plumerai la tête
Je te plumerai la tête
Et la tête, (1)
Et la tête, (2)
Alouette, (1)
Alouette, (2)
Ooooh . . .
But here's the result thus far for this week and the stuff for tomorrow thus far... 5-0 (+6.50 units) on the hope that this turns out to be a massive week.
Montreal (-4) vs. Saskatchewan W (+2 units)
Montreal (-2) vs. Saskatchewan 1st half W (+1.5 units)
Saskatchewan under 14 1st half W (+1 unit)
Saskatchewan under 28 W (+1 unit)
Saskatchewan @ Montreal over 28 2nd half W (+1 unit)
ATS: 9-6 (+10.08 units)
Totals: 6-3 (+4.76 units)
Team Totals: 9-3 (+7.10 units)
Moneylines: 6-6 (+2.20 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)
1st half: 9-8 (+1.96 units)
2nd half: 10-6 (+11.87 units)
Overall: 49-33 (+36.97 units)
For tomorrow thus far...
BC/Edmonton over 55 (4 units +100)
As stated before, I'm probably taking BC over the team total and Edmonton + the points before kickoff tomorrow, as well as possibly buying back one of these units on the over bet, as I don't want to spoil a very nice start completely on one game, especially with the Calgary game still to come and a lot of units floating around on that.
Hopefully we keep rolling this week. Huge game tonight though and a very promising start to week 7!
--AFLGuru:toast:
And Scott, the over will be close... Pulling for Sharky and the under the rest of the way.
With my over complete, I'm going to make the assumption that the Alouettes are gonna hold the Riders under 15 for the last 8 minutes or so left of this game and that the Alouettes are going to cover their first game. That being said, I feel as though the lyrics to "Alouette" is appropriate for the Als first cover of the season here in week 7...
Alouette, gentille Alouette
Alouette, je te plumerai.
Je te plumerai la tête
Je te plumerai la tête
Et la tête, (1)
Et la tête, (2)
Alouette, (1)
Alouette, (2)
Ooooh . . .
But here's the result thus far for this week and the stuff for tomorrow thus far... 5-0 (+6.50 units) on the hope that this turns out to be a massive week.
Montreal (-4) vs. Saskatchewan W (+2 units)
Montreal (-2) vs. Saskatchewan 1st half W (+1.5 units)
Saskatchewan under 14 1st half W (+1 unit)
Saskatchewan under 28 W (+1 unit)
Saskatchewan @ Montreal over 28 2nd half W (+1 unit)
ATS: 9-6 (+10.08 units)
Totals: 6-3 (+4.76 units)
Team Totals: 9-3 (+7.10 units)
Moneylines: 6-6 (+2.20 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)
1st half: 9-8 (+1.96 units)
2nd half: 10-6 (+11.87 units)
Overall: 49-33 (+36.97 units)
For tomorrow thus far...
BC/Edmonton over 55 (4 units +100)
As stated before, I'm probably taking BC over the team total and Edmonton + the points before kickoff tomorrow, as well as possibly buying back one of these units on the over bet, as I don't want to spoil a very nice start completely on one game, especially with the Calgary game still to come and a lot of units floating around on that.
Hopefully we keep rolling this week. Huge game tonight though and a very promising start to week 7!
--AFLGuru:toast:
arty: coconutman said:
Coconutman--
I posted 57 at TFZ because that was the widely available number at the time. I usually don't post way ahead of time on TFZ except for AFL, where I just have a week long thread that I start on Tuesday afternoon when the lines open and add to it throughout the week. Yes, I still think 57 is a strong play, and no, it wouldn't surprise me if this game's total reaches 58. Either way, I don't think you're having a problem.
Got a few more plays thus far for tonight, hopefully leading to my ultimate goal of a real high scoring Edmonton win, or a real close high scoring game where BC comes out on top... and will be adding Edmonton + points when the time comes...
First teaser of the season, of the never before seen (at least by me) 5 point teaser from 5Dimes...
Edmonton (+9)/Over 26.5 1st half (1 unit +105)
BC over 31 (1.5 units -110)
BC over 15.5 1st half (1 unit -110)
Again, I will be taking the Eskies probably in the 1st half with the points, as I have Edmonton +9 for the game locked in if the over 26.5 hits in the 1st half, which I think isn't going to be a difficult number to reach.
BC simply reaches 30 seemingly every time they're at home... And Ricky Ray can light up the scoreboard as well. Though it wouldn't surprise me if this game comes back to bite me in the tush, BC has been VERY kind to me this year... they've played 3 under games, one @ Hamilton, and two against Toronto. Me thinks this one will be no exception and continue flying high. Until they start posting 60+ numbers on BC home games, over will continue to be the play...
Here's BC's home games from 2004+ the few games this year...
BC 40 - Calgary 27
BC 30 - Toronto 22
BC 37 - Ottawa 29
(and 2004)
BC 32 - Montreal 29
Toronto 22 - BC 16
Calgary 22 - BC 21
BC 31 - Ottawa 13
BC 25 - Calgary 18
BC 49 - Hamilton 19
BC 48 - Winnepeg 17
Saskatchewan 42 - BC 29
BC 41 - Edmonton 34 (if Edmonton could make that 38 tonight, I'd be a very happy gambler)
8 out of 12 home games BC went over 30, 7 out of 12 reached at least 60 points, and they conceded at least 20 8 out of 12 times.... All %s say over, so we're playing over despite the fact that the Eskies might come out real fired up on defense after allowing a whopping 30 to Hamilton last week, but the victory was never in doubt. Dickinson > Marcus Brady... way better.... Only a matter if Ricky Ray can keep up.
It's already 58.5 at OLY. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 60. Why did it open so low at 55? Two of the top offenses in the league going at it indoors. Only thing scaring me is that they met in BC last year about this time with a total of 60 or so, and it ended 25-9. But, this is this year, and I just don't see this one staying under 55 or even under 60 for that matter.
Thanks Scott...
I'm really struggling to find myself a take on this Hamilton game and will likely only take Hamilton over the total for probably just a one unit play tomorrow, as I can see any number of things happening in this one... But I think Marcus Brady can really be a motivating factor on this team and drop 40 on this Ottawa offense if the WRs get clicking with Brady. Nothing else has totally sucked consistently for the Ti-Cats except their WRs... got the pash rush working, the o-line is slacking, but not miserable since weeks 2 and 3, Danny Mac wasn't playing THAT poorly, but something had to be changed... his WRs just have sucked it up. I still think this Ti-Cat team turns it around, but I'm chicken to lay against the Renegades this week unless someone else out there agrees with me wholeheartedly.
I'm really struggling to find myself a take on this Hamilton game and will likely only take Hamilton over the total for probably just a one unit play tomorrow, as I can see any number of things happening in this one... But I think Marcus Brady can really be a motivating factor on this team and drop 40 on this Ottawa offense if the WRs get clicking with Brady. Nothing else has totally sucked consistently for the Ti-Cats except their WRs... got the pash rush working, the o-line is slacking, but not miserable since weeks 2 and 3, Danny Mac wasn't playing THAT poorly, but something had to be changed... his WRs just have sucked it up. I still think this Ti-Cat team turns it around, but I'm chicken to lay against the Renegades this week unless someone else out there agrees with me wholeheartedly.
I agree the thing to do is ignore this game and spend those same three hours on the WIN-CAL game.
No idea what to make of HAM now. The pressure to get the first win is enormous. But, OTT is hard to figure too. One week the offense looks good, one week the defense looks good, you just don't know. I could make a case for either team winning by a TD, and tells me to stay away.
No idea what to make of HAM now. The pressure to get the first win is enormous. But, OTT is hard to figure too. One week the offense looks good, one week the defense looks good, you just don't know. I could make a case for either team winning by a TD, and tells me to stay away.
Frustrated at this line movement to be honest with you... I really thought people would bounce back on Edmonton instead of BC, and I'm pissed that I could have had a full 1.5 at least more on that teaser had a waited. As it is, I'm still reliant on the over in the 1st half, and the Eskies to keep it close. Not changing my position at this point, except a play possible on the Eskies in the 1st half to make all ends meet on this one and hopefully assure a decent game.
Holy Crap! BC up to -5.5 -110 at Pinny!
I tried to tell you Goo. Look at #10 in my "Week 7 CFL plays I made" thread or whatever I called it:
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->But we don't know who will QB HAM. Could be McManus, Jones, OR Brady. Hard to play a game with that much QB uncertaintly.
Money coming BC way at PINNY. If you like EDM, just wait. I bet you can get almost 6 by game time.
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I tried to tell you Goo. Look at #10 in my "Week 7 CFL plays I made" thread or whatever I called it:
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Louisville KY
Posts: 656
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->But we don't know who will QB HAM. Could be McManus, Jones, OR Brady. Hard to play a game with that much QB uncertaintly.
Money coming BC way at PINNY. If you like EDM, just wait. I bet you can get almost 6 by game time.
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