Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 5

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Two smaller plays... perhaps a team total later... we'll see...

Montreal (-11) @ Winnipeg (1.5 units -105)
Montreal @ Winnipeg over 51 (1 unit -110)
 

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Guru, you're taking the Over? So you're expecting the Als to destroy the Bombers, or Winnipeg to score 20?

The way I see it, Montreal comes out strong most of the time. And I know Matthews like to be conservative when he feels he's got a good lead. We've been complaining about it. I always like to take Mtl 1st half. And when they get that big lead, I take the other team for 2nd half.

I already took the Under but you got me thinking. I think I will add 1st half as I haven't done it yet. Just to cover myself, lol

BlueWolf
 

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I think if we see the Bombers offense, it'll be in the first half... I'll take my chances they can score a TD, a FG, and a single in the first half...

Winnipeg Team Total over 10 (1st half) (1 unit -110)
 

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BlueWolf--

Winnipeg's biggest problem this year has been Tee Martin's inability to make things happen on offense. He's out, and the original starting QB slated to start the year is back in the saddle for the Blue Bombers. I expect either the Bombers to come out shooting offensive, or to totally just get killed. Yes, there's a chance of a backdoor cover, but I believe by these three bets, I'm really minimizing risk and maximizing potential profit by my logic on this game. My worst nightmare with this is Montreal to jump out like 17-0 in the first half and then end up winning the game like 17-13. If Montreal comes out of the gate fast enough, I'll be guaranteed either over or the Montreal victory by at least 2 TDs. If Winnipeg reaches 11 in the first half, they're probably gonna get the over... just a matter of how many Montreal can score then.

Hope that helps in my logic... I'd go Bombers over the team total and under the total points if I were you, though. Figure the Bombers can score 21, be over the total, and the game still go under, but it's less likely that Montreal wins by 3 or 4 TDs on the road with the Bombers contributing just under their total to get to the over... I think you'll cover yourself just fine, and what you're betting juice on is Montreal not getting to 40 or so on the Bombers...
 

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:smoker2: ..

wtf

i decided mont will open some kinda lead..

therefore 1st q mont -2 -116 moderate bet..

gl guru ; and all

i also bet mont -6 1st h and -11 game wtf; i am degenerate..

gl

:drink:
 

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If I wasn't a degenerate, I wouldn't have tried the CFL out... and to think I'm only 20...
 

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Both offenses fluent to start the game... 7-7 not even half way through the first
 

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Barn-burner tonight, as the Bombers offense is clicking with the running game, simply gashing the Alouettes...

Winnipeg Team Total over 10 (1st half) W (+1 unit)
 

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Still think the Alouettes are gonna come back and win this thing handlely, but the Bombers are clearly a different team the past two weeks that we saw in the first 3... this week it happens to be the offense that has clicked. It was due. Though it hasn't been the change in QB that has been the direct help thus far, something's changed in that locker room, and now the Bombers are riding momentum.
 

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17-7 Bombers... things are ominous for the Alouettes here... defense looking as bad as they did against the Eskimos in the 1st half.
 

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Lol... what more can go wrong for the Alouettes... pooch kick hits an Alouette, recovered by the Bombers around centerfield...
 

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Geez... 24-7 Bombers... weren't we calling this team Loseipeg just a couple weeks ago? What's going on?
 

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Als are a joke and should be ashamed of themselves..getting their asses handed to them..this game is over:sad3:
 

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What more? That last TD. WIN receiver outwrestles MON guy for the ball. WIN had not scored more than 15 in any GAME this year. 24 with 6 minutes left in the 2nd against MON tonight. OF COURSE, cause I had the under. Oh well, 0-2 this week. Will likely take SAS-CAL over tomorrow night, so bet the under, people!
 

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Scott... you cursed yourself with this one saying how the under was a must... You've gotta know that this team is gonna score some points at some point this season. I understand that the Bombers have gotten a lot of luck in this game, but this is ridiculous. Still wouldn't be TOO overly surprised to see the Als come back and win though... They're still the Loseipeg Blue Bombers and have found ways to lose games this year. The fact that this game is at home might help out a lot, but if the Als can trim this to 10 or less at the half, this will be a moral victory going into the break... and at that point be very fortunate to only be down that much.
 

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No curse, just playing on what I saw. And it's not Glenn that's doing it. It's the Al's defense just getting run over. They can't stop Roberts and they are playing like they figured they could just throw their shoes out there and win. Just poor tackling and being beaten on every play by a step or two. Not MON-like. They look like they did in the 4th quarter at OTT.
 

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Again, the good news for the Als is that they aren't dead in this game. They're driving here and if they can punch this in and hold the defecit at 10, they've got a decent shot at winning this game still.
 

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Stanford Samuels plays for the Bombers? Solid DB. VERY solid in the AFL for the Storm for a long time.

24-10 Bombers, so not a completely lost drive for the Als. But they've gotta keep it right here at worst at the half.
 

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Can't see making a play in the 2nd half of this game, though it won't be surprising to see the Alouettes win this game...
 

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