Reflecting on a month of CFL
Thanks BlueWolf...
Lots of encouraging things thus far from my end. I continually feel that I am on the right side of games, or that I have made a "not horrible" call on games (noting that there are times that lines are sharp and there won't be a "horrible" call in the game). Only 3 times in 5 weeks have I felt that I made a completely "bad betting decision," one of which was this week with BC (I feel as though I had the right general read on the Montreal loss)... this is a proportion I feel is only slightly higher than my logics were in the AFL, where I made on average about one horrible selection a week (but was playing many more games).
Obviously in hindsight I can say I made a bad decision 22 times and a good one 30... but not all wins are good calls, nor are all losses bad calls. Significant "value" is a key I'm searching for this year. For example, when the Alouettes got beat outright by the Renegades and they were up 23 going into the 4th quarter, I feel as though that wasn't a "poor" decision. However, in hindsight, my first selection of the season, Hamilton +12 over the Alouettes wasn't the greatest, as it took a ferocious backdoor cover to seal victory... but on the same hand, a lot of things happened like I thought they would in that game, with the Ti-Cats offense finally showing up in the 4th quarter.
My feelings on Calgary being a better team than their record states, Saskatchewan being a worse team than their record states until they get healthy, and that the Ti-Cats are still close to waking up still apply, and I think this can prove very valueable for me as we approach the middle of the season.
But all in all, I'm thrilled that I've made over 20 units at this point, and was just hoping to be above the juice line at this point of the season. Though I think I still may bottom out at some point, this game does seem to have a lot of value, and now anything below a net of +25 units for the season would be very disappointing, while a reasonable goal for me right now would be 50 units... which is amazing since that's right about where I ended the AFL season at... But so far so good. Thanks to the supporters and follow cappers out there.
--AFLGuru:toast: