Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 3

[scottw]

I had MON -2 -119. PAYBACK for the bad beats last week with MON and SAS. I could have lost with CAL last night had Mr. Anti-Allstate caught that pass for Loseipeg, and should have lost tonight but for (No one is Better Than) Ezra and the .2 seconds left.

Now got a teaser, BC -6 and SAS +10 left to try for a perfect 3-0 week.

 

[scottw]

I'll be here watching the second game. If anyone needs constant updates, let me know, but both teams should have radio feeds up and running.

 

[AFLGuru]

Ottawa radio announcers making it sound like their team is completely obliterating BC... To me it sounds as though BC wasn't ready to come out offensively in this game, and the defense has already been left in a couple short fields... Doesn't look good at all for my over as of yet.

 

[AFLGuru]

And as I type, the Lions block a punt and have the ball well inside the scoring zone to hopefully go up 7-3.

 

[AFLGuru]

And of course, BC goes 2 plays, negative 20 yards and only gets 3... this game goes too fast for my server... lol

 

[scottw]

Dickenson has been sacked 3x already. He was sacked about 53 times in TOR. They better do SOMETHING about that.

 

[AFLGuru]

Goodness gracious what a nasty looking game thus far... two BC fumbles and 3 sacks allowed, Ottawa gets a punt blocked, and then can't capitalize on short fields to the fullest extent... killing me here....

 

[AFLGuru]

Add: "Ottawa missed PAT"

At least we've got some points going now... but if that missed convert screws me out of the 1st half over, I'm gonna be pretty pissed...

 

[AFLGuru]

Incredibly horrible luck for me in the 1st half of this game... Absolutely should be an over half, but between so many freakin' missed chances inside the 20s and a missed PAT... just digusting first half... however, I still like my chances of over in this one... BC also has to get going or they're in some real trouble. But I like the Lions in this one with some momentum to carry victory home quite easily in the 2nd half.

BC Lions (-7) vs. Ottawa 2nd half (2 units -120)
BC/Ottawa over 28.5 2nd half (2.5 units -118)

 

[SportSavant]

shame you didnt catch the alouettes on Tuesday when they were 2.5, gotta be early with the CFL as the steam seems to get the money more often than not,

this week:

Calgary Under 52 steamed under to 49 yet still stays under....

Calgary -2 steamed all the way to Calgary -6 & they win the game by 6

Montreal over 54.5 steamed up to 57, game goes over anyway....

Montreal -2.5 steamed to -3

 

[scottw]

Damn glad I teased BC down to -6. Backdoor TD by OTT.

 

[AFLGuru]

Here's what we've got this week thus far... Still mulling this Toronto/Saskatchewan game. Lost a tad bit tonight on the Montreal game, but picked it up finally with the 2nd half going over in the BC/Ottawa game, ultimately giving me the result I figured would happen thanks to a big BC 2nd half. Sorry for those of you that got a bit backdoored tonight by the Renegades again... Team is a big pain in the ass at this point in the season.

Calgary (1st quarter ml) @ Losipeg W (+1 unit)
Calgary (1st half ml) @ Losipeg W (+1 unit)
Calgary (-3) @ Losipeg W (+3 units)

Montreal/Edmonton over 27.5 2nd half W (+2 units)
Montreal (1st half ml) vs. Edmonton L (-1.90 units)
Monreal (-3.5) vs. Edmonton L (-1 unit)

British Columbia vs. Ottawa over 10.5 L (1st quarter) (-1.62 units)
British Columbia vs. Ottawa over 29.5 L (1st half) (-2.1 units)
British Columbia vs. Ottawa over 58.5 W (+1.5 units)
BC Lions (-7) vs. Ottawa 2nd half W (+2 units)
BC/Ottawa over 28.5 2nd half W (+2.5 units)

ATS: 5-2 (+8.30 units)
Totals: 2-1 (+1.47 units)
Moneylines: 2-3 (-1.80 units)
1st half: 2-3 (-2.34 units)
2nd half: 5-1 (+9.37 units)
Overall: 16-10 (+15.00 units)

 

[AFLGuru]

SportsSavant... When I get a bit more comfortable in the CFL in general, I will be hopping early lines, but as anyone can see, I immediately determined Calgary as a good play against Loseipeg, but then only had leans on the other plays and waited for the graces of some of the other cappers on here before pulling the trigger. I've formed a bit of a database that is beginning to spit some decent numbers at me similar to that of the AFL, and as those become deeper... probably week 8 or so, I'll be able to jump earlier as well.

But for now, I'm tracking the "leans" I don't play as well as the bets I actually make, knowing that at this point I am making too many wagers for my own good and that this will catch up with me at some point in the near future. But much like the AFL, there's no such thing as too much of a good thing. My cards in the AFL were incredibly large, but again, with money management, there should never be "too many" games in a week. Of course with the CFL, there are only 4 games to pick from a week vs. 8 in the AFL (9 next season), which helps clutter some things up.

But this is why I post here. I would hope if there are tailers, they are following Scott, Sharky, HPark, Vancouver Fan... I think that's all of them... but any of the other great cappers who have been following this game for quite some time. I offer up my selections and try to get some feedback from those who are more experienced in hope that I can add myself to a list of good cappers in this sport, much like I am in the AFL. I'd call the beginning of this a bit of beginner's luck, but a lot of these plays are similar in status to those that I'd make in the AFL. The nuiances are the keys that I must learn, and these will take quite some time to learn as well as I know the AFL.

Thanks for the info... but if you want to talk about steam... AFL lines come out, for example Tuesday at 1:00 PM EST... you wait until 1:15, you might have missed 7 points... lol. Best wishes to you.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[scottw]

1:15? Hell, by 1:03 an AFL line can move 7 points!

 

[HPark1]

Experiment seems to be going quite smoothly.

Nice 2nd half calls last night. Wasn't sure where that game was going to end up, BC O-line looked terrible. If they could only give the best pure passer in the league some time...

 

[AFLGuru]

So far so good HPark... hope things keep up. I'm going to play late on the over in this game despite everyone else around here either playing on or believe that the game is going to be an under game.

Toronto's defense is incredible, I'll give them that. And it really wouldn't surprise me if they come out and really squash this Rough Rider team that hasn't really had much in the way of competition yet this season, to reclaim some supremacy in this league that would otherwise slip away with a 1-2 start to the season. I've more or less talked myself into this play, as I believe that Toronto's lackluster run defense will catch up to a high power running attack Saskatechewan puts out on the field, but it will be the smaller play for the evening...

Toronto (ml) vs. Saskatechwan (1 unit -142)

I'm waiting as long as I can to grab the over in this one... will return later.

 

[AFLGuru]

5 units on the Argos Sharky? Alright, you've talked me into a bit more...

Toronto (ml) vs. Saskatchewan (ADD 1.5 units -152)

 

[AFLGuru]

As advertised...

Toronto vs. Saskatchewan over 45 (2 units +100)
Toronto vs. Saskatchewan over 23 1st half (1 unit +110)

 

[AFLGuru]

Got ourselves a nice start for over tonight... 15-13 Rough Riders at the half, giving me a nice +110 winner... Gonna lay off of the 2nd half of this one I believe...

 

[scottw]

Man, you think SAS would have learned from last week at HAM. They had a chance to score and put it away there, got stopped, and HAM goes 109 yards to make it REAL close, after SAS roughed the passer and before that had dropped an INT into the hands of a HAM receiver for a TD. This week it burned them. Up 12 they fumble it away inside the TOR 20, rough the passer, drop another INT, and get scored on, then get scored on again to lose a game they were in complete control of. SAS has allowed 4 TDs in the last 3 minutes of the last 2 games. They have allowed only 2 others on defense all year. Hard to back a team that's only gonna play 57 minutes of defense.

Anyway, 3-0 for me this week, +3 units. WOOHOO!